#irons – Under The Hammers

How many games have we played in the Europa Conference League this season? 13. Unlucky for some as the saying goes but not for West Ham. We’ve won 12 of them and drawn one. If we can maintain the unbeaten record next Thursday when we visit the city of Alkmaar in the Netherlands then we can get ready for our first European final since 1976. I think we can do it. It could go either way though.

I thought that we were OK on Thursday night. The players seemed nervous to me (or was it Moyes-induced caution?) in the early stages but once AZ had taken the lead with that long range shot it got better. I think if Areola were to face that identical shot again then on almost every occasion he would save it. Everyone is quick to get on his back and I’ve seen many calls for Fabianski to be recalled for the return leg. Not for me. In my opinion Areola is a better keeper and should retain his place and get a consistent run in the league games too. But I know many will disagree with my opinion. It’s strange isn’t it how keepers are rotated by most managers in league and cups to give the perceived number 2 game time? When a team reaches a final or perhaps a semi-final the manager will often revert to choosing his favoured number 1 keeper. I wonder if our manager will do the same for the second leg in view of Areola’s error? It would be harsh and wrong in my view. When he was England manager Ron Greenwood used to rotate Shilton and Clemence as he couldn’t decide who was the better keeper. It’s a shame that Phil Parkes was around at the same time as those two. I reckon he was just as good.

I’m also a big fan of Said Benrahma too. Not everybody’s cup of tea but he would always be in my starting eleven. That’s not to say I don’t find him frustrating at times though. I believe he has the potential to be a better player than we have seen in West Ham colours. I’m not sure the manager likes him particularly; I’m sure he would love to play Fornals in that position more – he’s more of a Moyes-type player. Again, not for me. He gives the ball away too much for my liking without posing much of a threat in an attacking sense. True Benrahma does lose the ball at times but he is always looking to create chances for himself and others. He was my man of the match on Thursday. I had no doubts when he stepped up to take the pressure penalty either. The successful conversion of that spot kick meant his penalty taking record for the clubs he has played for is now 12 out of 12. He doesn’t miss. I liked the way he combined with (the improving) Paqueta. Perhaps they can begin to reproduce the link that was formed between Payet and Lanzini in 2015-16?

Today is a different matter when we visit the GTech Community Stadium. What is it with teams beginning with Br? We can’t seem to play well against Brighton or Brentford. Perhaps we are fortunate that we haven’t had to play Brondby, Braga, or Bruges in Europe this season? When Brentford visited the London Stadium in the final game of 2022 we had not won a league game since 24 October when we beat Bournemouth 2-0, though of course the season was interrupted by the World Cup. We had played very winnable games at home against Palace and Leicester but had lost both of them. The 2-0 loss to Brentford made it three home league defeats in a row. Following the win over Bournemouth in October we were actually in the top half of the table (well just that is in 10^th). By the time Brentford had beaten us we had fallen to 17^th, just outside the bottom three, and with just one point from the next two games we were actually in the relegation zone. We’ve hovered around there ever since, usually just above, and visited there again following defeat at Tottenham.

We’ve done enough since (without being totally convincing for much of the time) to ensure that we are safe. Ok not mathematically yet, but it would take an extraordinary set of results to see us go down. At the start of the season who would have believed that we would not be mathematically safe from relegation in the middle of May with just three games of the league season to go? Of course Southampton are now down and it would take a massive goal difference swing for Leeds to go past us now, but the others in contention could all in theory still overtake us. But looking at their fixtures it is highly unlikely.

Geoff made a good point in his article published yesterday about how we only took two points from our remaining eight league games in the 1975-76 season when we reached the European Cup Winners Cup Final. I’ll expand on that and say that in that season we made possibly the most dramatic fall in league position in the top flight that has ever been seen. We beat Ararat Erevan of the USSR in the second leg of the second round on November 5^th and then we drew 1-1 with Coventry the following Saturday to go to the top of the league. By Christmas we had fallen to sixth place, and after then we only won one more league game in the whole of the rest of the season (a 1-0 win over QPR on 24 January). Incredibly just one win in 21 league games plus an early exit in the FA Cup in the third round, eventually finishing 18th! (22 teams in the top division at that time). Despite that we had excellent comeback performances in the quarter final and semi-final rounds in Europe to reach the final where we lost 4-2 to Anderlecht.

Can we blame our indifferent league performance on our involvement in European competition this season? I don’t think so but in the Premier League we have won 10 of our 35 games for a win rate of 29%, whereas in Europe we have won 12 out of 13 and drawn the other one for a win rate of 92%. Very different quality of competition of course.

There is now a lot of merit money on offer based on final league positions. We are currently 15^th which would earn a payout of £13.2 million if that was our final position in the Premier League. But that would increase or decrease by £2.2 million for each step either up or down. Prize money is important in the Premier League and also the European Conference. We have already won over £10 million for our performances in Europe so far and another £5 million will be added if we get to and win the final (runners-up get £3 million). But there is also the added bonus that winning would give entry into the Europa League next season and the financial rewards on offer in that. Whilst the money is important, as a fan I’d just love to see us win a trophy. It has been a long time! Too long!

I expect to see quite a few changes to our starting line up for the game today even though we are not yet mathematically safe with perhaps Fabianski, Johnson, Emerson, Downes, Fornals and Ings and possibly one or two others starting the game. Brentford still have a very remote outside chance of qualifying for Europe next season despite only winning two of their last nine games which means that they are very unlikely to do so. They will be fully up for the game though. But will we?

The midweek Europa Conference game against Silkeborg ended in the type of unexceptional victory that has become commonplace in the late stage group games. West Ham were all but assured of top spot prior to kick-off and the visitors would have been aware that next week’s home fixture against Anderlecht was their key to progressing in the competition. The game really should have been more of a stroll for the Hammers but once their finishing was about as convincing as a politician’s promise.

Still. it was good to get a first competitive glimpse of Nayef Aguerd. Without being tested it provided an encouraging teaser for we might expect from a speedy, ball-playing central defender. There was also an accomplished performance from Conor Coventry. He may be some way down the defensive midfield pecking order – unless David Moyes fancies picking four of them together at some point – but he is now firm favourite for the tidiest haircut since Scott Parker award.

I can’t help thinking the club is going a little over the top with their seven home wins on the trot marketing campaign, especially when considering the quality offered by much of the opposition. I suppose they were games that needed to be won, though. As for the Conference, we can now look forward to the most pointless match ever held for next week’s trip to Bucharest. Are we allowed to field the Under 13’s?

Sunday sees a return to league action against another of the sides enjoying the rigours of Thursday – Sunday football. Manchester United have now guaranteed group qualification but must triumph at Real Sociedad next week to avoid the play-off round lottery in the Europa League.

Trips to Old Trafford may not be as fruitless for West Ham as they are to Anfield, but there’s not much in it. The Hammers have returned with all the points on just six occasions since 1958; just twice in the Premier League era with the last time being the great escape in the final game of the 2006/7 season. With an equally dismal record against Manchester City, and even Everton proving a regular bogey side, trips to the north-west rarely turn out well. Since the Hammers most recent return to the Premier League they have lost 31 of 42 league matches played in Manchester and Liverpool (won six and drawn five). Indeed it is a record that has been passed down from manager to manager.

Although facing the Red Devils is nowhere near as daunting as it once was, it should be pointed out that Liverpool, Arsenal and Tottenham have already been beaten this season at Old Trafford. The home side may not yet be credible title challengers but they will certainly be in the mix for a top four finish.

Then there are the lurking perils of VAR. If you cast your mind back to the equivalent fixture last season, the home side won the game with the last kick of the game. Despite a strong suspicion that Cavani was offside before he played in Rashford to score, the goal was expediently awarded with indecent haste. No three or four minutes of line and angle drawing at Stockley Park on this occasion – the players were back in the dressing room by then.

I have run the numbers and the eXpected VAR balls up ratio (xVAR) comes out as 1.9 : 0.2. This week our fate is in the hands, whistle and mouse of Chris Kavanagh (referee) and Paul Tierney (VAR). The current standard, consistency and subjective nature of officiating reminded me of playing football over the park as kids – with the legendary jumpers for goalposts. If you shouted ‘post’ or ‘over’ quickly and loudly enough, it was often all that was needed to get a goal chalked off!

I think most West Ham supporters expect a further dose of David Moyes cautious medicine tomorrow. Initiative will be surrendered, opposition will be shown too much respect, defending will be as deep as possible, all in the hope of scoring on the break. His well-known inferiority complex preferring to hang on passively rather than forcefully targeting the host’s weaknesses.

With Lucas Paqueta again nursing his mysterious shoulder injury, Moyes may well persist with the unusual defensive midfield triumvirate of Declan Rice, Tomas Soucek, and Flynn Downes that featured against Bournemouth. It screams lack of creativity and ambition but may just work if the three selected further forward are predominantly attack minded players – e.g. three from Said Benrahma, Gianluca Scamacca, Jarrod Bowen, and Michail Antonio. At the rear the much-missed Craig Dawson is adding weight to the axiom that West Ham injuries always take longer to heal than originally anticipated. Dawson partnering Kurt Zouma in the centre with Thilo Kehrer and Aaron Cresswell as full-backs provides a solid enough backline.

The hosts may make several change to the team that shot three past Sheriff in midweek, with frequent West Ham irritant Rashford replacing the increasingly petulant Ronaldo. As usual the Red Devils have a surfeit of attacking talent but invariably look shaky at the back. If only West Ham could bring their clinical shooting boots with them.

Interviewed after the Silkeborg game, Aguerd (very good English) said the team set out to win every game. Is that true, does he believe it, or hasn’t he been around long enough to know differently? Observation and experience suggest the first priority is not to lose every game. Who knows, perhaps the spots on the leopard can be purposefully re-arranged this weekend? More probable, I think, is a goal apiece draw. COYI!