Tag: #BOUWHU

Nuno And A Classic Tale Of Game Mismanagement: West Ham Draw At Bournemouth

One point is snatched from the jaws of three as West Ham invite Bournemouth to an uncontested 45-minute second half shootout at the Vitality Stadium.

On the face of it, returning from the Vitality Stadium with one point in the bag could be seen as a job well done. Bournemouth are no mugs and many of us would have taken the draw prior to kick-off. And seven points from the last three games is not to be sniffed at. So, why so much post-match negativity among supporters? The simple answer: because it felt very much like two points thrown away rather than one earned.  

Nuno had received plenty of media plaudits following the two consecutive home victories against Newcastle and Burnley. They were much needed wins, the league table looked less desperate and there was a sense he may have “turned things around”. Yet, I can’t shake the doubts from my mind that he was as much the architect of our dire situation – from his bewildering selections and tactics against Brentford and Leeds – as he was our saviour. A sleight of hand like the firefighting arsonist who first sets the blaze and later returns as the hero to put it out.

It’s now eight points from seven games for Nuno. An improvement over the hapless Graham Potter but still well within the realms of disappointment. The next seven games take us through to the end of the year; the halfway stage of the season and the opening of the transfer window. Following the first three of those games, players will depart for AFCON 2025 – and may potentially be missing until the last week of January. It’s a tough run of fixtures during which the Hammers cannot afford to lose touch with our fellow stragglers. A point per game is a minimum return.

Having carved out the two home wins with a solid, dependable and unspectacular 4-3-3, Nuno elected to exercise his tactical chops with a return to a three-man central defence. What might have looked liked a 3-4-3 from the safety of the white board turned into a uninspiring 5-4-1 for most of the game. The driver for change was either to compensate for the absence of Lucas Paqueta, to counter the Cherry’s swift attacking threat, or just for the hell of it. Whatever way, it served to set the tone of the afternoon. The Hammers would be competing as underdogs.

How we have arrived at a situation where Bournemouth (£169 m in revenues and average attendance 11,200) have superior resources and depth to their squad than West Ham (£268 m in revenues and average attendance 62,400) is staggering. But we know the answer, don’t we? It is the direct consequence of the fetid band of grifters, chancers and charlatans in the boardroom responsible for sullying the great name of West Ham United for the past 15 years. As with Robin Banks, the detective, or Clara Knet, the musician, we can see nominative determinism at work here. Sully – verb: to damage, soil, or tarnish a reputation. BS Out!

As for Bournemouth, it is a very well-run club. They ditched a safety-first coach to appoint a progressive, visionary coach in Iraola. They have coped with (and profited from) the lucrative sales of Zabarnyi, Huijsen, Kerkez, Ouattara, and Solanke. And yet still have a more valuable squad than West Ham according to Transfermkt.

Reaching half-time two goals up came as a huge surprise. The lead courtesy of two expertly taken Callum Wilson goals rather than any tactical superiority displayed by the Hammers. How refreshing to have a main striker who understands the role with an opportunistic eye for goal. A great shame he’s not half a dozen years younger.

Apart from the goals, West Ham had been happy to surrender possession for most of the half. But in doing so, managed to limit the Bournemouth threat to a handful of half chances. Aside from a couple of dangerous Malick Diouf crosses, the wing backs rarely left their own half. Both Jarrod Bowen and Luis Guilherme looked uncertain in their narrow roles and too often they occupied the space the wing backs were meant to run into. As a front three, they were never close enough to operate as a functioning unit. And there were never enough attacking bodies in the box at any one time.

Still, it was a nice position to be in at the break. A third win on the bounce was certainly not out of the question. Until everything started to go wrong.

First change (46 minutes): KWP for Guilherme. There was some debate whether this was a tactical switch or due to injury. Introducing KWP had worked well in previous games as a wide midfielder in front of a back four. He appeared to have little idea what to do or what was expected of him as a theroretical part of a front three. Either George Earthy or Soungoutou Magassa would have made more sense as Guilherme replacements.

Second change (52 minutes): Tomas Soucek for Wilson. This was wrong for two reasons. One, it was far too early to take off Wilson who had showed no signs of tiredness – the look on his face said it all. And two, Soucek was the wrong replacement. Deploying him as the main striker was laughable. Iraola had withdrawn one of his central defenders at the break and this change played straight into his hands. The switch should have been delayed for at least another 15 minutes with either a straight Niclas Fullkrug swap or moving Bowen into the centre and introducing Magassa or Earthy behind.

Third change (74 minutes): Fullkrug for Fernandes. A contender for the Most Stupid Substitution of The Month award. Leaving aside the fine individual exploits of Wilson and Alphonse Areola, Fernandes was the standout West Ham performer again. Had Brian Clough been in the dugout he would have hooked Soucek straight off again, having seen how far off the pace he is now in open play. But no, Nuno took off the one player capable of putting in a tackle and holding on to the ball. As it was, Fullkrug was hardly involved – either isolated or lazy depending on your point of view – and Fernandes’ absence opened gaping holes in the midfield for Bournemouth to breeze through.

It beggars belief that any professional manager or coach would come up with Nuno’s cunning five part plan to defend a lead: abandon all attacking intent, remove any outlet for retaining possession, defend as deep as humanly possible, resort to punted upfield clearances to no-one in particular, and invite wave after wave on attacks on their own goal. Madness, surely! It was a basement level of cowardness and caution that would leave even the Moyesiah reeling with embarrassment. And remember, these were tactics developed in the full knowledge that the club has a collection of the flakiest defenders in living memory.

There is often a debate as to whether the on-field approach is down to the players or the tactical instructions prescribed by the coach. All I can say is that at no time did I see Nuno imploring his team to push up or demanding that a higher defensive line be adopted. I can only assume he thought it made sense.

Every watching West Ham supporter would have been fully aware it was only a matter of time before Bournemouth started scoring. It was good fortune that they ran out of time after drawing level. There could have been little argument if they had racked up another two or three goals.

At the final whistle, the disappointment was as much about the manner as the fact of losing a two-goal lead. One second half goal attempt (in the 51st minute) and 22% possession after the break says it all. Only eight touches in the opposition box all game and no saves for their keeper to make illustrate the luckiest of snatched points, not a hard-fought draw.

The Hammers ended the weekend just outside the relegation places on goal difference. It’s going to a much tougher struggle at the bottom of the league this year. Although two of the promoted clubs currently sit below us, they are stronger sides than we saw promoted the season before. Clubs have learned that survival chances improve immensely when you have physically imposing players scatered around the team. In the modern game it is almost a pre-requisite for every player to be quick, athletic and strong. A lesson that a succession of West Ham managers have been slow to learn.

A shrewd transfer window in January is now essential for survival. And then I read of links to Adama Traore. It’s enough to tear out the few remaining hairs on my head. COYI!

Do West Ham have a cunning plan to continue their recent run when they travel to the South Coast to face Bournemouth?

Before sitting down to write this preview I have recently been watching a re-run of some Blackadder episodes. That might explain any strange references that have crept in.

Ah, Bournemouth versus West Ham. A fixture so tantalising, it could make even Baldrick’s turnip quiver with anticipation. On one side, Bournemouth, a club whose recent home form is so impressive, you’d think they’d discovered the secret to footballing alchemy, winning four of their last five at the Vitality Stadium and scoring goals with the reckless abandon of Lord Flashheart at a dinner party. Their defence, however, is about as watertight as a leaky rowing boat captained by a drunken sailor, with clean sheets rarer than a cunning plan from Baldrick. However they’ve lost their last two games and conceded seven goals in the process. But in mitigation they were away from home at Villa and Manchester City, two sides in top form that have each picked up 15 points from their last five games. They’ve fallen from second to ninth in no time at all collecting eight points from their last six games (only one more than us). If they fall any further they’ll need a miner’s helmet and a note from their mother explaining their absence from the top half of the table.

West Ham, meanwhile, arrive with the confidence of a man who’s just realised his trousers are on backwards. Seven league defeats already, and our away form is so patchy, it could be mistaken for a moth-eaten pair of Blackadder’s best socks. Our defence has been leaking goals faster than Lord Percy’s brain leaks common sense, and yet, like a stubborn medieval lord, we refuse to go quietly. Having spent much of the season stumbling like Lord Percy at a masked ball we have now achieved the sort of back-to-back victories usually reserved for fairy tales. Firstly we despatched Newcastle with a 3-1 flourish, a home victory as rare as a Mads clean sheet, and then not content with that, just like London buses another one came along straight away with the 3-2 defeat of Burnley. Without those wins, or if we don’t continue to pick up points in the difficult games ahead then we’ll be in the stickiest of sticky situations since Sticky the stick insect got stuck in the sticky icing on a sticky bun.

Tactically, Bournemouth will look to attack with the speed of a fleeing court jester, while West Ham’s approach to away games so far is best described as “hope for the best and blame the referee or VAR.” Both teams have a penchant for high-scoring games, 71 goals in total have been scored so far in their eleven games played this season, so expect goals and drama. My prediction is for Bournemouth to win, unless West Ham’s defence remembers their job. It could be a rout, or a draw, or, knowing football, and West Ham in particular, anything can happen so perhaps a third Hammers win in a row? When did that last happen?

Bournemouth’s Cunning Plan:

“My lord, our plan is as cunning as a cunning fox who’s just been made Professor of Cunning at Cunning College, Cambridge. We shall unleash the likes of Evanilson, Semenyo, and Kluivert. The idea: confuse West Ham’s defence with movement so unpredictable, even Baldrick would struggle to follow. Evanilson will lurk in the box, ready to pounce, while Semenyo and Kluivert create chaos on the flanks. Our midfield will pass the ball so much, the Hammers will be left dizzier than Lord Percy after a night on the razzle. And of course we’ll try to create as many corners as we can as well as take long throws into their box. We know they don’t like that!”

West Ham’s Cunning Plan:

“Right, chaps, our plan is so cunning you could stick a tail on it and call it a fox. We’ll defend deep—so deep, our centre-backs may need a map and a packed lunch to find the halfway line. We’ve continued to practice how to defend corners and we’re determined not to concede any more soft goals from set pieces. Our pacier midfielders will link together nicely and then, when Bournemouth least expect it, we’ll launch the ball forward with all the subtlety of Lord Flashheart entering a ballroom. Callum Wilson will dash behind their defence like a rat up a drainpipe. Alternatively if he’s fit to return, Füllkrug (that’s if he’s not already halfway to Milan, Germany or wherever he is going in January) will cause chaos with the grace of a drunken Blackadder at a royal banquet. Bowen and Summerville will add pace and trickery. Well that’s the plan anyway. And if we still lose, we’ll blame the referee, VAR, the pitch, the weather, Sullivan and Brady, and possibly the alignment of the stars.”

We have just six games to play before Christmas. The saying goes that there are no easy games in the Premier League, and the fixtures before the big man comes down the chimney are certainly not easy, in fact we have quite a daunting run. Four of the six are away from the London Stadium with just two at home. We face the teams (in this order) who are currently 9th, 8th, 7th, 11th, 6th and 2nd in the current table. Following this weekend’s trip to Bournemouth, there is another away game on the south coast at Brighton, as well as two visits to Manchester. In the two home games we face Liverpool and Villa. The six points from the last two games were invaluable in ensuring we were not cut adrift in the bottom three, but at least tagged on to the teams above, but some adverse results in the games coming up and it could change again, and not for the better. We would probably be happy to average a point a game in those six before two home games between Christmas and the New Year at home to Fulham and Brighton take us to the mid-point of the season. Ten points from the next eight would take us up to 20 at half-way which is probably close to where we need to be to ensure a further season in the Premier League.

West Ham faced Wolves on Monday night, our seventh consecutive home win on a Monday. Next Monday we travel to the South Coast to face Bournemouth

West Ham v Wolves – A Celebration of the Number Nine

The ninth of December – the stars did align,
This was the day – a tribute to nine,
Nine was the number that shone in the light,
The game was for Michail, an emotional night.

In the warm-up they wore shirts ‘Antonio 9’,
The game in his honour, this was his time,
The fans clapped and sang, this was because,
When the ninth minute came, 60 seconds applause.

Soucek’s header on 54 –far post this time,
Add them together, 5+4 make nine,
Bowen’s winner on 72, he made no mistake,
Add 7+2, you know what they make.

O’Neil wanted penalties, the ref he played dumb,
Big decisions did impact the overall outcome,
For West Ham’s head coach the win just in time,
For tonight was the night to celebrate nine.

Three points most welcome, let’s uncork the wine,
Nine over the drop zone, we’re starting to climb,
Our points rose to 18, add up one more time,
Put 1 and 8 together – and once more it’s nine!

Nine first half corners, nine shots on goal,
The Hammers were winning and now in control,
The Irons on top as they reigned supreme,
And West Ham were now in a Number 9 Dream.

Bournemouth v West Ham

Christmas is coming, time to bring out the berries,
As West Ham head south to be facing the Cherries,
In the coastal air where the sea meets the sand,
Bournemouth v West Ham, what have they planned?

Under Monday’s night sky with stars softly gleaming,
Can we win again or am I just dreaming?
The Cherries at home in their red and their black,
In claret and blue Hammers on the attack.

The game a tale of grit and delight,
Under stadium lights burning fiercely and bright,
The away fans sing loud, big boy what’s your name?
It’s Ludo Miklosko from Moscow I came. (Not really!)

The Hammers are fourteenth what chance of a win?
The Cherries are eighth and we’re 15 games in,
Two down at Everton almost at the last minute,
You wouldn’t believe that with three goals they’d win it.

One down at Ipswich as the game neared its end,
A dramatic late comeback that is their trend.
They also beat Tottenham when Huijsen did pounce,
Nine points from three games they’ve won on the bounce.

Their scalps are impressive they’ve beaten the best,
City, Arsenal and Chelsea were put to the test,
But Senesi, Tavernier on the injury list,
Two not playing this week and they will be missed.

With Antonio out who’ll be leading the line?
Ings or Fullkrug, or Bowen false nine?
Kudus missed five he’s had quite a rest,
We’ll all be hoping that he’s back to his best.

If Summerville starts, and I do hope he will,
Let’s hope we can witness his dribbling skill,
Soler’s started the last four, he’s looked very keen,
He’s certainly worth his place in the team.

Soucek Lop’s favourite, he picks him whatever,
We always are hoping he scores with a header,
There’s one midfield player we know can do better,
But he’s not on the ball – that’s Lucas Paqueta.

Defending’s a problem, we don’t shut the door,
There are only three teams who’ve conceded more.
And we’ve only scored 20, thirteenth on the list,
Our xg is better, note the chances we’ve missed.

Head to head’s positive, but here is the thing,
We’ve conceded a few to Wilson and King,
But they have gone now, Solanke’s gone too,
Here’s my prediction, a score draw 2-2.

Have West Ham’s bubbles burst before the season has even begun?

The euphoria of our European success is just a distant memory as the club are mocked by a pizza company

It is barely two months since Lucas Paqueta’s superb through ball in the ninetieth minute put Jarrod Bowen clear on goal for a winner that produced our greatest moment since 1980 when we lifted the Europa Conference League trophy. Surely that should have been a catalyst for the club to build upon? But what has happened since has induced the biggest bout of pessimism amongst most West Ham fans before a ball has been kicked in anger that I can remember. And my memories go back to the late 1950s.

Of course we didn’t have the internet at that time but even then you could sense that there was optimism amongst supporters as a new season dawned that this was going to be “our year”. It’s something that I haven’t recognised at all this time as I scoured the West Ham groups for a sense of current feelings. These groups have always had their fair share of moaners even in the good times, but these were balanced by alternative (positive / optimistic) views. I have found very few who seem to believe that we are in a good place at the start of this campaign.

It didn’t take long for everything to begin to unravel as the players headed for their holidays after the euphoria of the European success. Within days we lost two first team coaches in Mark Warburton and the highly rated Paul Nevin. A clash of footballing philosophies with David Moyes? Not a good start to the summer.

Never mind, by early July Tim Steidten joined the club as technical director. Our chairman David Sullivan believed that this would drive the football strategy of the club in a forward direction. I cannot see any evidence of this yet. To me the club has engaged reverse gear. Of course, you never know what to believe when you read social media or the press, but one view is that Moyes and Steidten are at loggerheads. Moyes, whose future relies largely on short term results apparently wants to buy tried British players first before spending any surplus on longer term, perhaps younger prospects from abroad. Steidten on the other hand has the opposite view and some have claimed he has blocked Moyes attempted buys. Alternatively, some reports claim that he and Moyes are best buddies in full agreement as to how to take the club forward. Who knows? I do wonder how the types of players Steidten has in mind would fit with the Moyes way of playing?

Within a couple of weeks of Steidten’s appointment the long running saga of Rice to Arsenal was finally over. Surely nobody believed he would be staying? Surely the club would have a plan in place to replace him and all would become evident as soon as the transfer was completed, and in good time before the new season began? This is West Ham remember!

With just seven days to go before the serious business of the Premier League began we faced Bayer Leverkusen in the final pre-season warm up game. The Germans, managed by Xabi Alonso, finished sixth in the Bundesliga last season (level on points with Eintracht Frankfurt – remember them?) and qualified for the Europa League (like ourselves). This would surely be a good test to see how ready we were for the new season. We were comprehensively outplayed and lost 4-0, sending West Ham fans on social media into overdrive.

By Monday afternoon, just five days before kick-off I looked on NewsNow (always good for entertainment!) to see if there were any transfer developments on any of the 88 players that we have been supposedly interested in this window. You know the ones, the ‘incredible’ 29yo, the ‘exceptional’ magician, the ‘unbelievable’ powerhouse, the ‘monster’, the ‘brilliant’ midfielder. It seems that Edson Alvarez is close at this time, and Ward-Prowse, Maguire and McTominay continually feature but I don’t believe anything I read until the West Ham website shows a new recruit with crossed arms in a claret and blue shirt.

Saturday’s Daily Mail quoted a tweet (or is it now an X?) from Domino’s Pizza – ‘Just Had West Ham come in again …. and not buy anything’

It seems hard to believe that anybody new will be here in time to feature on Saturday. The window continues for a while yet but how much better would it be to get our business done before the season begins? Remember the start we had last season? Three losses in the first three games, bottom of the pile and playing catch up for months while our new players were slowly integrated into the team. Some of the football was awful to watch and we were still in the bottom three with 15 games to go. Of course, all’s well that ends well, and the season certainly ended well with our European success. And Bournemouth for the first game is a more hopeful opener than Manchester City was last time. Can we repeat 4-0? You can get around 50/1 or 60/1 from the bookmakers if you think so. Not particularly generous odds for such a big away win. We are marginal favourites to win the game.

Traditionally I make a prediction before the season gets underway as to the final league positions. So here goes – Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Newcastle, Manchester United, Chelsea, Aston Villa, Brighton, Tottenham, West Ham, Brentford, Burnley, Everton, Crystal Palace, Fulham, Wolves, Forest, Bournemouth, Sheffield United, Luton.

Tenth for West Ham. That’s about as optimistic as I can get!

Survival Back On The Agenda As West Ham Head South To Visit The Vitality Bowl Of Cherries

West Ham must stop Billing to achieve top billing in the latest relegation scrap against Bournemouth. The Hammers need to display their new-found spirit and resilience if they are to pip the Cherries for the points.

West Ham eased themselves into the Europa Conference semi-finals on Thursday night with what turned out to be a comfortable victory over KAA Gent. Following yet another slow, stuttering start the Hammers picked up the tempo around the half-hour mark before running riot in the second period. The margin of victory should possibly have been even greater.

There is now the small matter of five Premier League fixtures in 15 days before the semi-final against AZ Alkmaar on May 11. With the first leg being played at the London Stadium this has the makings of a tricky tie against an unknown Dutch opponent. At first glance the relative youth of the Alkmaar team – an average age more than four years junior to the Hammers – raises anxiety levels, especially if it is the case that youthfulness equates to fast and energetic.

In an ideal world, West Ham will have been able to preserve their Premier League status before the Conference games resume. To do so will require a haul of six or seven points from the next five games. It’s a return that is above the season-to-date average – although below the last five match total of eight points.

Little further clarity was provided on the likely outcome of the relegation scramble from the games already played in the current round of matches. A win for Leicester puts them back in play while a point apiece for Southampton and Everton does more for morale than league position. Defeats for Leeds and Forest leaves both even more exposed to the dreaded drop

The run of West Ham’s five survival games kicks-off with a trip to the south coast to play Bournemouth this afternoon. It was not long ago that the Cherries were everyone’s favourite for relegation but a strong run of four victories from six has lifted them to the fringes of safety. A home win today might see them done.

Former Hammer, Gary O’Neil has knuckled down and performed a highly creditable job with his low budget squad. The Cherries are one of only two sides – the other is Forest – who have enjoyed less possession than West Ham this season. Their tendency is to get as many players behind the ball as possible – sound familiar – and rely on quick breakaways centred on the pace, movement and running of Dominic Solanke and Philip Billing.  

Solanke is a strange player who never delivered on his early potential at Chelsea and Liverpool. Although he scored a hatful of goals in the Championship, his Premier League total of eight from 70 games is less than impressive for a striker – did you know he also had one England cap?. However, his tally of five this season is as good as any West Ham player, and he has also contributed plenty in assists and as target man in counter-attacks. It is Billing who tops the scoring charts for Bournemouth (with seven) – goals which are typically scored from late runs into the box. Who will be picking him up? The other Cherry who has impressed in the games I have seen is Marcus Tavernier. If he plays – he went off injured at Tottenham last week – his runs along the flanks will require close attention from the West Ham full-backs.

Life and football is full of uncertainties. But one thing we can be certain of is that David Moyes will not be springing any selection surprises when the team sheets are handed in before kick-off. From the team that started against Gent, I see the only questions as: Aaron Cresswell or Emerson Palmieri, and Nayef Aguerd or Angelo Ogbonna.

That will mean starting berths again for two players – Tomas Soucek and Said Benrahma – who have looked well out of sorts for varying parts of the campaign. Moyes obsession with Soucek is legendary and hinges on the manager’s fixation with the aerial presence the Czech offers in defensive areas. If Soucek was still weighing in with goals at the other end it might be worth the trade-off. But he’s not and without goals his poor proficiency with the ball at his feet stands out even more. At this level a player shouldn’t he heading the ball because he doesn’t trust his own ability to bring it under control.

Benrhama has been consistently frustrating for much of his Hammer’s career and into this season. Granted he is joint top in Goals Scored and Goals + Assists but those stats do include four penalty kicks. His decision making is still haphazard, and, for me, he lacks the speed and strength to hack it at the top level. In the average game Benny looks incapable of pressing a grape, so it was something of a surprise last week when he outmuscled Ben White before crossing for what should have been West Ham’s winner against Arsenal.

It is baffling why Maxwell Cornet has yet to be given more minutes since his recovery from injury. Surely, he needs them to get match fit and his pace would be a welcome added dimension to attacks. Yet he has been mainly limited to five-minute cameos as a late Michail Antonio replacement since returning to the match day squad.

A West Ham win would be a second double of the season for the Hammers. It would also be a first ever double over the Cherries and the first win in Bournemouth since a Dimitri Payet inspired 3-1 victory in January 2016. A Hammer’s comeback inspired by one of Payet’s memorable free-kicks. How we could do with that now!

The game promises to be an intriguing clash of two sides inclined to play with a similar style – defend deep and counter-attack. It will be a very different challenge for West Ham than games against attack minded opponents like Arsenal and Gent. Despite some great goals scored recently – the Declan Rice and Antonio strikes on Thursday were top drawer – more penalty box chances need to be created from open play if the Goals For column is to be improved. The approach to the game must be adventurous enough for the Hammers to put pressure on the shaky home defence, with Jarrod Bowen and Lucas Paqueta the most likely to make it happen. But disciplined enough not to get caught out by Bournemouth counter attacks. A tight affair is forecast but one that must feature strongly on the winnable list. COYI!  

After a successful European win on Thursday, a cherry-picking trip to the South Coast for West Ham to face an improving Bournemouth team

An important game – the winner will virtually be safe from relegation, although whatever the result, they probably both will

The Opta Supercomputer makes and updates predictions on the likelihood of all manner of things, including which clubs will be relegated from the Premier League. It gives a percentage chance of facing the drop based on form, the strength of opponents in the games to play, and goodness knows what else. I wonder what the Supercomputer would have made of the chances of West Ham getting anything out of the Arsenal game last weekend after the first ten minutes? Surely it would have been close to zero percent. That’s what I thought, as did many of us I guess, so it was refreshing to witness a comeback that didn’t seem likely, and it could have even been a win at the end.

What brought about the change in the game? The Arsenal manager believes that they eased up once they were two ahead, and that may have been partly the case, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. There was a marked change in the way we played. We pressed them higher and played with an intensity rarely seen of late. Which begs the question – why haven’t we seen this for most of the season?

Who will go down? It’s still a tough question to answer, but perhaps a little easier than it was a couple of weeks ago. Back then there were just three points separating Palace in twelfth with Bournemouth in the third relegation spot. Palace decided to dispense with a young progressive manager and replace him with the oldest manager around who had decided to give up managing last season. But three wins in a row for Roy Hodgson since taking over once again at Selhurst Park has taken the Eagles out of the equation and they are now as good as safe.

It’s partly to do with the way that the fixtures have fallen with Palace now playing teams in the bottom half, as opposed to a run of games against teams closer to the top before Hodgson was appointed. Scoring goals has been the difference for Palace too. In the three games with the new manager in charge they have scored nine goals. In the 16 games prior to that they had also scored nine goals. What a difference! Not long ago there was a big gap between Palace and the team in eleventh place. Now they are just three points behind Chelsea who have collected just one point from their last three games.

A new manager at Everton had a similar (but only temporary) effect. When Sean Dyche took over they won two of their first three games reinforcing the change of manager ‘bounce effect’. But since then they have won just one of their last eight games, drawing three and losing four, and they are still in deep trouble with just seven games to play.

With Palace now out of it that leaves only eight clubs at most in the relegation mix. Let’s now take a look at some of the statistics involving the bottom eight.

This article was written before the result of the Arsenal v Southampton game last night was known.

The league table at present from the bottom up:

Southampton 23 points (7 to play), Leicester 25 (7), Forest 27 (7), Everton 27 (7), Leeds 29 (7), West Ham 31 (8), Bournemouth 33 (7), Wolves 34 (7).

The form table (once again from the bottom up) for the last six games played shows why the gaps are opening up near the bottom:

Leicester 1 point, Forest 1, Southampton 2, Everton 6, Leeds 7, West Ham 8, Wolves 10, Bournemouth 12.

The form table for the last three games is even more revealing:

Southampton 0, Leicester 0, Forest 0, Everton 1, Leeds 3, West Ham 4, Bournemouth 6, Wolves 7.

None of the bottom five teams are averaging a point a game for the season to date, and they are now in reality strong favourites to provide the three teams who will be playing in the Championship next season. If our game at Bournemouth on Sunday has a winner then that team will almost certainly be safe from the drop. If we can follow up the positive performance from last Sunday when we travel down to the South Coast then our relegation fears will be all but eliminated. We still have a game in hand and a goal difference that could be worth another point compared to the other teams in the bottom eight. That assumes that we don’t concede too many when we visit Manchester City of course.

I mentioned the Opta Supercomputer at the beginning of this article; their up-to-date figures for percentage chances of relegation are:

Southampton 93.6%, Forest 74.4%, Everton 57.8%, Leicester 46.4%, Leeds 23.5%, West Ham 2.1%, Bournemouth 1.6%, Wolves 0.5%

Bookmakers’ relegation odds vary a little, but taking Bet 365 as an example, the current odds before this weekend’s games are:

Southampton 1/14, Leicester 2/7, Forest 5/6, Everton 1/1, Leeds 9/4, Bournemouth 16/1, West Ham 20/1, Wolves 40/1.

On Thursday night we progressed into the semi-final of the Europa Conference League with a magnificent second half performance against Gent.  AZ Alkmaar, fourth in the Dutch league (as Gent are in the Belgian league) stand in our way from reaching a European final in Prague, our first since 1976.

But before then it is back to the important domestic action. We don’t have a good record in away games at Bournemouth in the Premier League. We have won just once in five attempts when two goals from Valencia and one from Payet secured a 3-1 victory in January 2016, a reversal of the 4-3 defeat we suffered earlier the previous August when Callum Wilson (now of Newcastle of course) scored a hat trick in our last season at Upton Park.

The stakes are high for this game. Both sides know that a win will make them virtually safe. Will it be a cagey affair? Will both sides be happy with a point apiece? Both teams can count on recent momentum. Whatever happens I think we’ll both be in the Premier League next season. I’ll agree with the Opta Supercomputer and the bookmakers. It’s any three from five now – Southampton, Leicester, Forest, Everton and Leeds. It can still change of course, but I’ll stick with that.