Matchday: Hammers versus Stanley

Sliding doors. This train terminates at Stratford.

EFL CupWe asked 100 West Ham fans to “Name a Famous Stanley”. Top misty-eyed answer was the Lord Stanley in Plaistow one of the favourite pre-match watering holes from the old Boleyn Ground days. Second was the retractable blade knife that might have been taken to a match in the 70’s and in third place was former Socceroo Skippy Stan Lazaridis. The Stanley from Accrington were in a disappointing sixth place.

League Two Accrington Stanley find themselves in the 3rd round of the League Cup for the very first time. Their second round victory over Burnley being the first time that they have ever beaten a team from the top tier. West Ham’s last defeat to a fourth tier team was a 2-1 home defeat to Aldershot in 2011. Accrington manager, John Coleman, has vowed to come to the London Stadium to attack and so we could well be in for an interesting evening. They are not even bringing a bus let alone parking it.

“It will be a good side whoever we play as they are Premier League players. We will not be going there to park the bus, we will be going there to attack and score goals and if that means we get beat 7-0 so be it.”

– John Coleman

Our approach will be interesting and there are different schools of thought on the distraction or otherwise of cup competitions. The Avram Grant team had impressive runs in both League and FA Cup but remained woeful in the League. On other occasions a good cup win has galvanised League form. A good many supporters would sacrifice several League placings for a decent cup run (especially if it leads to a day out at Wembley) provided that the spectre of relegation is avoided. It is going back a long way but a 6-0 League Cup pounding of Tranmere in 1974, when we were bottom of the table, prompted a revival in fortunes that ended with FA Cup success against Fulham. Tonight is maybe a ‘sliding doors’ moment for us.

“We have to do it. Starting from today we have three mega games, three cup finals before the next international break. This game is a good opportunity for us, it’s an interesting competition for us. It’s good to have a game tonight.”

– Slaven Bilic

Head to Head

We have never played against tonight’s opposition before and so I will use the opportunity to repeat my favourite Accrington Stanley related story. Legendary goalkeeper Willie ‘Fatty’ Foulke was in the Bradford City team when Accrington Stanley visited Bradford for an FA Cup tie in February 1907. It was discovered just before kick-off that Foulke, who stood 6ft 3in and weighed in at 22 stone, was wearing a jersey that clashed with the red shirts of Stanley. After a fruitless search of the ground for a suitably large replacement Foulke used a sheet borrowed from a neighbouring house to cover the offending top. The game ended with a Bradford victory by the only goal and with Foulke barely called into action his makeshift attire was as pristine as it had been at kickoff. Thus, the origin of the phrase “keeping a clean sheet”. What are the chances of one of these today?

Team News

None of the long term injured are ready for action yet. In the circumstances I would anticipate a reasonably strong side that would include West Ham debuts for Alvaro Arbeloa and Edimilson Fernandes. I would also like to see Ashley Fletcher and Pedro Obiang given starting positions.

My predicted starting eleven:

Randolph
Arbeloa  Ogbonna  Oxford  Masuaku
Feghouli  Obiang  Fernandes  Tore
Antonio  Fletcher

Obviously, I know nothing about the likely Accrington line-up other than the increasingly cosmopolitan nature of football sees players from France, Benin and St Lucia feature in the League Two side’s squad.

Man in the Middle

Tonight’s referee is Stephen Martin from Staffordshire, a member of the Select Group 2 Refs who can usually be found blowing his whistle in Championship games. If we asked 100 West Ham fans to ‘Name a famous Steve Martin’ answering with the referee’s name would no doubt get you an “Eh-uhh”!

I Wouldn’t Bet On It 9 – The Recovery!!

The weekend’s winnings weighing down our pockets we throw some loose change at the EFL Cup.

Fancy A BetYou may recall that last weekend I introduced a variation into our football betting. I looked at the odds for the number of goals scored in games, and I had a look at the odds of there being at least 3 goals in the game in each of the Premier League games. I think I chose the right weekend to do so!

The Premier League kept up the record of being the division where this happens the most – before last weekend there had been three or more goals in the game in 21 of the season’s 40 games. The table below shows the results of the games alongside the odds that were on offer.

 

 

Odds

 

Chelsea v Liverpool

1-2

4/6

*

Hull v Arsenal

1-4

8/11

*

Leicester v Burnley

3-0

4/5

*

Man C v Bournemouth

4-1

1/2

*

WBA v WHU

4-2

5/4

*

Everton v Middlesbrough

3-1

Evens

*

Watford v Man U

3-1

5/6

*

Palace v Stoke

4-1

6/5

*

Southampton v Swansea

1-0

Evens

 

Spurs v Sunderland

1-0

4/6

 

In the weekend’s ten games, 8 had three or more goals. The only games that didn’t manage this were the ones at Southampton and Tottenham. So the total is now 29 out of 50 games (58%). The cumulative odds of those eight games having three or more goals was over 141/1.

The game that really took my eye was the one involving our trip to West Brom, which gave the most generous odds, meaning that this was the game expected to produce the least goals. This was not surprising in that West Brom (managed by Pulis) had scored the least goals in the Premier League this season before the weekend. I felt that it had the potential for goals with our poor defending of late, plus the need for us to rally after poor recent performances. As it was the requisite three goals were all scored by half time, unfortunately all into our net!

I staked 16 points on the game to produce three or more goals and this was converted into 36 points. In addition I staked four points on an accumulator for the games at West Brom, Watford, and Manchester City to each have three or more goals at accumulated odds of 6.19/1. We had to wait until ten minutes before the end of the Watford game on Sunday for the third goal for the accumulator to be successful to produce an additional 25.7 points.

Our total stake of 20 points reduced our balance to 55.4, but our 100% success rate won us a total of 61.7 points from our single bet plus the accumulator. Our points balance is now up to 117.1, giving us an increase of 17.1 points on our starting level.

As I expect the EFL Cup (it has had a multitude of names over the years – I remember it most as the basic League Cup) to produce goals I will continue with the same bets that were successful for us this week, with two four-game accumulators each based on there being three goals or more in the matches.

So on Tuesday I shall stake a 1 point accumulator on the games at Forest, Brighton, Everton and Leicester at 7.85/1 (8.85), and on Wednesday a 1 point accumulator on the games at Swansea, Tottenham, West Ham and Northampton at 5/1 (6). Potential winnings are in brackets. I’ve kept the stakes small as the early stages of this cup are unpredictable with teams fielding weakened sides, but we can still have some fun and interest in the games hoping for three or more goals in each of them. Our guarantee is that if just one of the nights is successful then we are in profit.

With 2 points staked our balance is reduced to 115.1 with potential winnings totalling 14.85. What are the chances?

West Ham v Accrington Stanley – Anyone for Elevenses?

Keep ’em peeled for potential banana skins as an Accrington Stanley XI slip into town?

Embed from Getty Images

The visit of Accrington Stanley in the third round of the EFL cup will be our first ever meeting with them. They are currently in League Two where this is their eleventh consecutive season, they sit in eleventh place in the table, with eleven points, having scored eleven goals, and conceded eleven goals. This will be their eleventh competitive game of the season.

The original Accrington Stanley resigned from the Football League in 1962 after suffering financial difficulties. They reformed later in the 1960s and worked their way through the football pyramid eventually regaining their place in the league after winning the Nationwide Conference by eleven points in 2005-2006. So this is their eleventh season back in the league. Prior to last season, their best performance since their return was in 2011 when they finished in fifth place but lost out in the play-offs.

Last season was their best ever. After a run of eleven games unbeaten they went into their last game of the season at home to Stevenage with a chance of automatic promotion, but could only draw 0-0 and once again went into the play-offs. But they lost in the two-legged semi-final to AFC Wimbledon, who later won the play-off final at Wembley and were promoted to League One.

In the first round of the EFL Cup this season they were drawn at home to League One Bradford City, and the game ended goalless after extra-time and went to a penalty shoot-out. Stanley missed their first penalty and looked to be on their way out until Bradford missed their fifth one to take it to sudden death. I hope our game today doesn’t go to penalties as they are rather good at them. After missing that first penalty they scored the next eleven in a row to win the shootout 11-10! Ironically they only had ten players on the field at the end!

In Round Two they faced Premier League Burnley and beat them 1-0 after extra time with a goal in the 120th minute from Matty Pearson. He plays as a defender / midfielder and before joining Stanley he played for Rochdale and Halifax. The goal that Pearson scored was the eleventh of his career. So that was their first goal in 240 minutes of EFL action and here they sit in the third round.

We have a magnificent record in home league cup ties. We have played 111 games and only lost 19 of them. We’ll need to score eleven goals to beat our record score in the competition, the 10-0 trouncing of Bury in 1983. I was in the crowd of just under 11,000 that evening when the goalscorers were Cottee 4, Brooking 2, Devonshire 2, Martin and Stewart (penalty).

So what score this evening? 11-0? I don’t think so. But watch out for their number 11! The way the season has been going to date it would be good if some of our players can just put in a confident performance, avoid injuries, and win comfortably to take us into the last 16.

Can We Win The EFL Cup?

Can this be the first silverware since the 1999 Intertoto glory?

Embed from Getty Images

We began the season in our new stadium with high hopes following the relative success of our final season at Upton Park. Our seventh-placed finish in the Premier League gave us qualification for the UEFA Europa League, which meant that we were in with a theoretical chance in four trophies this season. I use the word theoretical as opposed to realistic, although we have to remember that Leicester, at 5000-1, were only considered to have a notional chance of winning the Premier League, and we all know what happened.

We were eliminated from the Europa League earlier than we would have hoped, or expected, and even the world’s biggest West Ham optimist would have to concede, that with just five Premier League games completed, we will not overhaul a Manchester City team who already have a 12 point lead over us in the league competition, as we sit in the relegation zone.

Our two realistic chances of a trophy before the season began, and now our only two opportunities, come in the domestic cup competitions. And when you analyse the competitions in detail, you realise how relatively easy they should be to win. But bearing in mind that our last FA Cup win was in 1980, and the fact that we have never won the League Cup, you realise that we haven’t done as well perhaps as we should have done.

This is my 59th season of watching the club, and our 50th in the top flight. We should perhaps have won more competitions than we have. But this is another season, so perhaps this will be the one. The FA Cup can be won by winning just six games of football. But the EFL Cup requires even less! The seven English teams who qualified for European competition this season, including ourselves, received byes into the third round of the League Cup, which in the absence of a sponsor is now called the EFL Cup. Those of you who have been around as long as I have will remember some of the sponsors of this competition, such as the Milk Marketing Board, Littlewoods, Rumbelows, Coca-Cola, Worthington, Carling, and Capital One.

This effectively means that you can win this trophy by winning just five games of football. You could have a magnificent defence that keeps clean sheets and get through on penalties without actually winning any games at all, but that is one winning route I can’t see us taking! So, just win five games of football. Easy isn’t it! Surely we can manage that. To be handed a draw at home to Accrington Stanley of League Two should, in theory, be a straightforward passage into the last 16, but I have supported the club for long enough to know that this is not the case!

I can remember so many banana skins in this competition with defeats to Darlington, Rotherham, Huddersfield, Coventry (more than once), Forest (at least four times!), Stockport (twice), Fulham, QPR, Swindon, Barnsley, Luton, Oldham, Oxford, Norwich, Crewe, Bolton (three times), Northampton, Sheffield Wednesday, Reading, Chesterfield, Birmingham, Aldershot, Wigan, and Sheffield United. The list is very long, and to coin a phrase popular with our manager at the moment, embarrassing!

Of course, although we have never won the competition we have come close, losing a two-legged final to West Brom in 1966 (this was the very last final decided over two legs), and to Liverpool in 1981 after a replay. We have also lost in two-legged semi-finals too, to Leicester in 1964, West Brom in 1967, Stoke in 1972 (4 epic games), Luton in 1989, Oldham in 1990, Birmingham in 2011, and the 9-0 drubbing by Manchester City in 2014.

Traditionally, throughout history, cup semi-finals have often been very tight affairs. But if you believe that our recent defensive performances are just a current phenomenon, you may like to know that in those seven two-legged semi-finals spread over fifty years we conceded 41 goals in 16 ties (6, 6, 5, 5, 6, 4, 9)!

When we beat Accrington Stanley (OK I’ll say if), then we will be in the round of 16. As we begin round three there are 16 Premier League teams left in the competition, with four all top-flight ties, meaning that at least that many will be going out. We are currently the seventh or eighth favourites to land the trophy (you can get odds of between 14/1 and 20/1), so the bookmakers fancy our chances more than some teams higher than us in the Premier League. I guess our home draw to a league 2 side in this round has something to do with that.

So can we win the EFL Cup? History tells you “no”. Our opening games this season tell you “no”. I just hope we take it seriously. We can win this trophy by winning just five games of football. Four wins guarantees a day out at Wembley, and a win there ensures European football next season. Let’s be honest, this is the simplest route into Europe.

5 Points From The Recent Weekend

Sorting through the garbage from the Premier League weekend and wondering how our on-loan players are faring.

Five Things EPLCity Slickers 2: The Sequel

At this stage last season Manchester City sat at the top of the Premier League with a 100% record from the first 5 games before successive defeats to West Ham and Tottenham took the spring out of their step and resulted in an indifferent (by their expectation) 4th place finish, and snatching the final Champion’s League spot. This year they are again top of the pile with a flawless record and even though it is “early doors” (©Big Ron) it is difficult to see who is going to stop them this time around. In Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero they have probably the best player and best striker in the league backed up by a very deep and talented squad and a manager who really does look like he is making a difference. Their city neighbours, on the other hand, resemble a cross between the Harlem Globetrotters and a circus freak show without any real tactical plan; a little like Chelsea last year you might say. Chelsea themselves require a lot more rebuilding before they can mount a serious title challenge while Liverpool and Arsenal will veer from the sublime to the unconvincing. Tottenham will act all mouth and no trousers again and along with Everton, as the new Southampton, will be tussling for Europa League qualification.

Light Blue Touch-Paper and Retire

On Guy Fawkes night, the 5th of November, the fixtures computer has paired West Ham with Stoke City and on the evidence of recent defensive performances we could well see some fireworks that day. There has been much debate on West Ham forums as to whether our own poor defending is down to individual blunders or collective incompetence. I tend to believe that the two are related and that haphazard organisation is often (but not always Arthur) the catalyst for mistakes. One imagines that having already conceded 4 goals twice this season Mark Hughes would have spent much of the week preparing his side to stand firm against the expected Crystal Palace aerial threat from set pieces and yet they surrendered two routine goals in the first eleven minutes. Unless both the Stoke and West Ham defenders get a rocket before the two teams meet the game might yield a whole youtube bloopers compilation by itself.

Goals with a Lustrous Finish

Speaking of rockets that is how a shot from outside the box that whistled into the back of the net was once described. Or else it might have been a screamer, unstoppable or a piledriver. These were all good masculine sounding words that conjured up the image of a glove free warrior with no shinpads, crepe bandage barely concealing a gash on the head, ploughing through the mud and letting one rip with his Gola Speedster boots. Now a commentator feels that they are allowed to describe a goal as ‘sumptuous’ as with the Jordan Henderson strike at Stamford Bridge; what next – gorgeous, luscious, lavish, opulent, orgasmic, splendiferous….? The long range shot is more often than not top contender in the goal of the week/ month/ season compilations but give me a slick passing, quick movement team goal any day. It was good to witness a few of these over the weekend. Also good to see converted Right Back, Michail Antonio still leading the goal scoring charts which in the absence of the illusory 20 10 goals a season striker is most welcome. For teams that do have functioning strikers there were further goals for Costa, Lukaku, Deeny, Kane, Rashford and Iheanacho while Leicester look to have done shrewd business in recruiting Slimani from Sporting Clube de Portugal.

The Not-So Special One

I was among many who believed that Manchester United under Jose Mourinho would be a force to be reckoned with this season. Instead they appear to be a ramshackle assortment of spare parts that have been assembled without access to the necessary instructions. If you scan through the list of names of the teamsheet it might look impressive at first glance but it is not a team rather a collection of individuals, some of whom are well past their best. The manager gives the impression of being perplexed about the whole business. There was a perfect description of Jose’s demeanour in a recent Guardian article which I repeat below:

“More recently José Mourinho seems to have decided the best approach at Manchester United is to spend his first few weeks standing on the touchline looking crumpled and sad and heroically betrayed, like a man on the hard shoulder of the M6 staring balefully across the nearside lines above his raised bonnet, rain gluing his shirt to his back, phone dead, credit card maxed out, kids living in Bicester, golf clubs repossessed, 800 units of polyester carpet samples scattered across the back seat.”

Naturally, the 3 defeats in a week for Manchester United are not the fault of Jose himself but are down to poor refereeing and Luke Shaw. In the game against Watford (good team!) they were second best in the first half and it looked ominous when Watford surrendered the initiative during the second period yet the Hornets showed great spirit and resilience to claim all 3 points from their largely uninspiring opponents.

Loans and Miscellany

Most Premier League teams have players out on loan at other clubs. This can be to give younger players experience or simply to remove some cost from the wage bill. It is well known that at any time Chelsea have something like 30 players loaned to other teams. As far as I know West Ham have 10 players out on loan so let’s take a look at what they were up to at the weekend. Enner Valencia had his first run out for Everton as a 66th minute replacement for Lukaku and was caught offside just the once, so encouraging signs so far. Neither Reece Burke nor Kyle Knoyle took part in Wigan’s goalless draw with Fulham (my assumption is that Burke was injured); Martin Samuelsen was a 90+3 rd minute time-wasting substitute for Blackburn in their 4-2 win against Rotherham but there was no place in the squad for Stephen Hendrie. Josh Cullen played 90 minutes for Bradford as did Lewis Page for Coventry in their respective drawn games but there was no game time for George Dobson (Walsall), Luca Belic (Motherwell) or Doneil Henry (AC Horsens in Denmark). The most notable action from any of these games being a hovering drone stopping play for several minutes in the Bradford – Bristol City game.

WBA v WHU: The Numbers Game

The numbers are in and they just don’t add up.

NumbersA few numbers from the game at the Hawthorns:

“0” or zero = The number of points we’ve picked up in our last three games. It is also the number of our drawn games in the league this season (last season we drew 14 – no team in the Premier League drew more games than us)

1 = our position in the running order on Match of the Day, though not for the reasons we would like. It is also the number of times WBA have previously beaten us 4-2 in a league game (on 19 April 1965 – Ronnie Boyce and Geoff Hurst scored our goals in front of 13,713 at the Hawthorns). It is also the number of league games we have won this season. It is also the number of times in the whole of last season where there were exactly six goals in a league game we played in.

2 = The number of times in the past week where there were exactly six goals in a league game we played in.

3 = the position Slaven Bilic occupies in the betting for Premier League managers to lose their jobs.

195 = the number of days since WBA last won a league game at the Hawthorns.

581 = the number of days since WBA last scored four goals in any competition (it was in the FA Cup on Valentines Day 2015 v us!)

5 = the number of league goals scored by Michail Antonio this season. All five goals have been headers.

11 = the number of headed goals scored by Michail Antonio since the beginning of last season – more than any other Premier League player

20 = the number of total goals scored in our five matches this season (more than any other club). Incidentally, 116 = the number of total goals scored in West Ham Premier League games last season (more than any other club). So we’ve started this season as we were last season, the favourite of the “neutral spectator” (whoever he is!), but not a team for the “purists”)

40 = the number of times in history we have beaten WBA. After this weekend it is also the number of times WBA have beaten us.

18 = our position in the league table following this weekend’s games.

12 = the number of times in our last 15 league matches where we have conceded at least two goals.

53 = the number of goals we will score this season if we continue at the same rate (last season we scored 65).

99 = the number of goals we will concede this season if we continue at the same rate (last season we conceded 51)

152 = the total goals that will be scored in games involving West Ham if we continue at this rate (last season 116 which was the highest in the Premier League)

West Ham figures first in the following section:

71%-29% – our dominance in possession of the ball in the game
23-8 – our dominance in shots
5-6 – slight advantage to WBA in shots on target – very important if you want to score goals!
613-253 total passes; 552-185 completed passes; 90%-73% pass success – so once again we had far more of the ball, and were better at finding a team mate with it, but what these figures don’t tell us is the area of the field where the passes were made! In fact our pass success percentage was only bettered by one side in the whole Premier League on Saturday, Arsenal at Hull. So it is really nonsense as an indicator for success in the game.
14-12 tackles; 86%-75% percentage of tackles won.
5-9 corners; 13-25 crosses – the crosses were the complete opposite of last week against Watford but we still managed to lose the game.
9-10 fouls conceded – we committed one fewer than our opponents.

The really important statistic is that at one stage we were 4-0 down and lost the game 4-2.

Four of our next six matches are at home against Southampton, Middlesbrough, Sunderland and Stoke. On paper not the most difficult of fixtures, facing four teams who are currently in the bottom half of the table like ourselves. Two away games in the period are at Palace and Everton.

If we really are to kick-start the season then I’d like to see at least 13 points from those six games, making 16 from 11 games. This would probably just move us into the top half of the table. Win all six and we would be on 21 points after 11 games, 1 point ahead of the same period last year. Not very likely on current form! 8 points from the six games would put us on 11 from 11, averaging just one point a game which is relegation form.

Bearing in mind that the next four games after this batch of six are against Tottenham, Manchester United, Arsenal and Liverpool (three of them away from home), then a poor return from the highlighted six games would almost certainly leave us in a relegation dogfight, not what was expected after last season.

This Week in Hammer’s History

Picking the cherries from the week 19 – 26 September in Hammer’s history.

This Week Hammers HistoryAt the weekend a TV commentator was holding forth about a certain player’s return from injury which was another 4 weeks away “or so I’m told” he added pretending to be well connected. What he really meant was that he had read it on it the internet, or perhaps it was a researcher who had read it and then told him so. Anyway, here is what I’m told happened this week in Hammer’s history.

Despite having embarked on the occasional continental tour in the past, the 23 September 1964 saw West Ham’s first ever competitive European match with a visit to Ghent in Belgium to play a European Cup Winner’s Cup first round first leg tie with La Gantoise. The match ended in a slim 1-0 victory for the Hammers with Ron Boyce heading the winner in the 52nd minute from an Alan Sealey corner. The goal made all the difference in the Hammer’s march across Europe as a result of a stuttering 1-1 draw in the return leg at Upton Park two weeks later. As a side-note, La Gantoise subsequently changed their name in 1971 to KAA Gent and in 2015 won their first ever Belgian League title; making it through to the knockout stages of the Champion’s League the following year before being beaten by Wolfsburg.

in 1981 (22 September) a Paul Goddard hat-trick in a 4-2 win against Southampton saw West Ham retain top spot in the (old) First Division. A 1-1 home draw against eventual champions Liverpool, just four days later, saw us slip down to second place never to return to such dizzy heights again that season.

The week naturally has had its setbacks including a routine League Cup defeat against lower league opposition in 1994 with a 2-1 defeat to 3rd Division Walsall (although we did rescue this one in the second leg) and in 1997 we were on the wrong end of a 4-0 drubbing at Highbury against a Denis Bergkamp inspired Arsenal.

Notable successes were a 6-2 home victory over Leicester in 1974 where we had started the day at the very bottom of the table and a 3-1 win against Brendan Rodger’s Lverpool in 2014. You can see the goals from this game below (avec un commentaire formidable francais).

 

Today’s featured game, however, is one of few bright spots from the 2010/11 Avram Grant season when on 25 September 2010 West Ham recorded their first Premier League victory of the season at home to Tottenham. I can remember listening to this game on the radio as I was taking my son to University in Exeter for the first time on that day. A gritty and determined West Ham managed to inflict a 1-0 defeat on visiting manager Harry Redknapp. It was an unusually exuberant West Ham performance who scorned many chances to score before Frederic Piquionne headed the only goal of the game from a Mark Noble corner.

Robert Green had a fine game in goal including a spectacular save to keep out a goal bound Luka Modric strike. Green was fresh from his embarrassment at the 2010 World Cup and this match went some way to rebuilding his confidence.

No surprise that Keiron Dyer left the field injured during the course of the game but it was an impressive and sweet victory that had us all (momentarily) confident that good times were just around the corner.

Green, Jacobsen, da Costa, Upson, Gabbidon, Dyer (Barrera), Parker, Noble, Boa Morte, Obinna (Kovac), Piquionne (Cole)

This week’s West Ham birthdays:

20 September John Charles (d 2002)
20 September Frank Lampard Snr (68)
22 September John Moncur (50)
23 September Jonathan Calleri (23)
26 September Alan Stephenson (72)
26 September Tommy Taylor (65)