Five Takeaways From West Ham’s Desperate Defeat at Newcastle

A chance to kick start the season is thrown away by bizarre selections and perplexing tactics.

We Have All Been Here Before

I was watching the early game yesterday and the commentator, who was fawning over Pep and the Arab lottery winners, shared his view that it was too early to consider Manchester United as serious title contenders as they had only played two of the weaker sides in the Premier League.  Interesting that this is now how West Ham are classified but, on the evidence of yesterday’s appalling display at St James’ Park, it is fittingly justified.  At the end of last season I believed that Slaven Bilic was lucky to have kept his job on the basis that there was no evidence to suggest he was equipped to take the club forward to the next level promised land.  A consensus perception that summer player recruitment constituted a fantastic transfer window (as yet unproven) gave a momentary glimmer  of hope but now it is evident that we are being served up the same disorganised fare that epitomised last season.  Three games into the new campaign and all the warning signs are there of a desperate relegation struggle.  Bilic may write it off as a ‘loss of form’ but what is he comparing it to?  When did we last show the type of form that is now allegedly lost?  If you look at the last nineteen league games (half a season) the record shows four wins, five draws, ten defeats and seventeen points; relegation form in anyone’s book during which time we have shipped an average of two goals every game.  All of the shortcomings have been carried over from last season but with different personnel; no discernible style of play or tactics, players out of position, picking favourites, poor organisation and preparation, a collection of startled individual strangers rather than a team and a level of fitness that is way below what is expected.  That we have signed players who did well at other clubs (Ayew, Snodgrass, Fonte, Nordtveit) but have bombed at West Ham cannot all be pure coincidence.

Changing Places

Before the game yesterday there was a reasonable assumption that West Ham were coming up against a team that perhaps were in worse shape than we were.  Doom, gloom and conflict appeared to have engulfed crisis club Newcastle United on their return to the top flight.  By the end of the afternoon they had been made to look like world beaters.  Ask a hundred West Ham fans before kick-off how the team should line up and I doubt that any would have chosen the eleven that Bilic selected. A random jumble of midfield players effectively handed the initiative to Newcastle from the off and left our only goal threat, Javier Hernandez, marooned and isolated up front.  Bilic seems to have a notion that players can be slotted into any position at will while all the evidence shows that, not only does it not work, but it destroys confidence as well.  Modern football cannot be so rigid that it hinders fluidity and mobility but such flexibility must still be meticulously drilled into players on the training ground; not just thrown together to see what happens.

Just A Collection of Antiques and Curios

Baffling selections do not come any stranger than having all three of Pedro Obiang, Manuel Lanzini and Cheikhou Kouyate on the bench yesterday.  Quite what Obiang, clearly the most competent and disciplined defensive midfielder in our squad, has done to be overlooked for Mark Noble and Declan Rice is bewildring.  It should be no secret that defence isn’t just about the four or five at the back but how you approach it and cover for each other as a team.  All good teams now defend from the front and our defence needs all the help it can get.  With each passing week Noble looks more like the small kid who has been asked to make up the numbers with the big boys but simply can’t keep up; he is becoming Bilic’s Kevin Nolan.  To rely on him and the rookie Rice, who is really a central defender anyway, to control the centre of midfield was foolish.  It was a shame that it was Rice’s mistake that led to the opening goal but hauling him off at half time to be replaced by Lanzini only left the defence more exposed.  That is probably Bilic done for his experiment with youth just as Oxford was jettisoned following defeat by Leicester two seasons ago.  If Lanzini and Kouyate were both fit enough to be on the bench then at least one should have started.  Is there some rule about a player returning from injury always has to be on the bench first.

The Possession Enigma

It was a surprise to me to discover that West Ham ‘enjoyed’ 63% of the possession in the game and that we bettered Newcastle on pass completion rate, aerial duels won and tackles made.  It just shows how misleading the statistics are as a means of judging a game.  Delve deeper and you will see that leading the field for number of touches were Angelo Ogbonna, Pablo Zabaleta, James Collins and Aaron Cresswell.  This is indicative that we spend much of the time passing the ball around in our own half; a tactic that slows the whole game down and allows opposition defenders plenty of time to re-group.  That possession resulted in only half as many shots as Newcastle tells it all.  How many times does a West Ham free kick in a promising position result in a pass back to their own keeper?  What is the intention?  Once again the Whoscored website analysis for West Ham concluded that ‘Team has no significant strengths’; now that is one area where the statistics do not lie.

The Weakest Link

How can you describe our play?  There appears to be no plan of attack other than to lump the ball forward and hope to benefit from a mistake.  There is never an outlet to relieve the beleaguered defence and very little movement off the ball to create space for others.  Our defence tries to play a high line but is repeatedly beaten for pace meaning that they are horrendously vulnerable to the ball through the middle or over the top.  Fitness levels are way below those of the competition, ball retention is woeful and the players give the appearance that having only just met and they are not really sure what is expected of them.  For me this is all down to management and coaching.  It is not about signing William Carvalho as the missing piece of the jigsaw.  There is little point having ever more pieces when no-one has any idea of the picture we are trying to make.  West Ham need a manager who can provide consistency, entertainment while building for the future.  Bilic is providing none of this and does not look capable of doing so.  Being a nice guy doesn’t win points and wanting to be mates with his players is a handicap; what is required is organisation, effort and discipline.  Change is required.  There may be other things wrong at the club but the Board are going nowhere fast and we can’t replace a whole squad of players.  Sorry, Slav, you are the weakest link.  Goodbye!

A few thoughts after just two games of the Premier League season

Early season expectations, advance of the stats and the time wasting rip-off.

1      Two games do not a season make

Lots of football followers are getting a bit carried away with how their team will fare this season, even though we are just two games into the Premier League campaign.

Huddersfield are only the second team to keep clean sheets in their opening two Premier League games following promotion from the Championship. The first team to do so were Charlton in 1998-99. And what happened to Charlton that season? Yes, they were relegated.

Hull City had six points after their first two Premier League games last season after promotion. They had beaten champions Leicester in their first game, and then won away at Swansea in their second. Of course, they were relegated at the end of last season.

2      Expected Goals (xG)

We continue to be bombarded with ever-increasing volumes of statistics in football these days, which may be of some interest, but what do they actually prove? Arsenal had 77% possession of the ball at Stoke last weekend and lost the game 1-0. Does that mean it is better not to have the ball too much?

And the latest statistic to come to prominence this season, although it has been around for a while is “expected goals”. I have been reading about this in some detail, and despite quite a liking for statistical analysis (out of interest only), I wonder if this one has been thought through properly. The concept is that they now measure the probability that any given shot will result in a goal. The purpose is to quantify the quality of each chance created, by analysing historical shots (up to one million of them) to assess how the probability of a goal being scored is affected by various factors, such as the distance and angle from the goal, whether the shot was hit by the stronger or weaker foot, or head, the type of assist, and passage of play.

Expected goals (given the shorthand xG) for each individual shot can then be added together to arrive at the expected goals for individual players and for teams. So, for example, in the Arsenal game at Stoke last weekend, the Gunners won the “xG” by 1.48 to 0.67. What does this prove? That they were the better team? Just like possession statistics does it really matter? Stoke won the game 1-0.

And what about potential flaws in the data? What other factors are not taken into account? The quality of the defenders, does the chance occur at the beginning or end of the game, what is the score at the time, are you under greater or less pressure because of league position, the beginning or end of the season, tiredness. These are just some of the factors that have occurred to me, and I’m sure there are many others. There are so many “human dimensional” factors that will influence what will happen in a game of football, and you have to include “luck” too.

Just for interest, in expected goals terms (xG) we lost our opening fixture at Old Trafford 1.93-0.48. Our game at St. Mary’s was a close run thing but we lost that, too, by 2.08-1.96. I’m sure that there are data analysts out there who would prefer the results of matches, and the subsequent league tables to be based on expected goals rather than actual goals! On a lesser scale, instead of extra-time and penalty shoot-outs, perhaps they would like to use xG to determine the result of drawn (actual goals!) cup games? It would be almost impossible to have a drawn xG game, so we would always have a winner.

What nonsense! Let’s not take this all too far! An interesting insight into performance? Perhaps, yes. Am I missing the point? Perhaps, yes. But let’s not get too carried away. Although if it was based on xG we wouldn’t actually be bottom of the league after two games!

3      Time-Wasting

In June I wrote a series of articles based upon the International Football Association Board (IFAB) rule change proposals. Part 3 of my series looked at their ideas for increasing playing time, which revealed how they were considering dispensing with 45 minute halves in a game of football, and replacing it with two periods of thirty minutes, with the clock being stopped every time the ball went out of play. The purpose was to make the concept of time-wasting a thing of the past, as the clock would not be running unless the ball was in play.

In my article I made reference to Tony Pulis bringing his Stoke City side to play at Upton Park in years gone by and how much time-wasting went on. And in an article I wrote for the much missed fanzine, Over Land and Sea, in November 2015, and also in my book, Goodbye Upton Park, Hello Stratford, my review of West Ham v West Brom (managed by Tony Pulis!) on 29 November 2015 referred to my own timekeeping of the game when I watched it back in replay on Sky Plus. I timed the second half as around 25 minutes of actual playing time.

So I had to smile when I read a piece on the BBC Sport website which referred to last weekend’s Burnley v West Brom match (you know the manager of the away side here!) which timed that the ball was in play for 47 minutes and 40 seconds in total! No game in the premier League has seen less action than this one. The fans are most definitely being short-changed in this respect. Apparently all the games in the Premier League this season have been timed and the ball was in play for more than an hour in just two of them. It’s about time the lawmakers took action and introduced this rule change immediately. It would be so simple. It would totally eliminate the whole concept of time-wasting. What is stopping it from happening?

A preview of West Ham at Newcastle

Can West Ham record their first league victory of the season?

If we want to avoid the ignominy of still propping up the Premier League table by the end of the next round of matches we will have to significantly improve upon our performances at St James Park in recent times. Without delving back too far, just looking at our results there in the 21st century, we have played 13 games and won only once. That sole victory was courtesy of a Kevin Nolan goal in November 2012 in our first season back in the top flight under Sam Allardyce. Although that win was less than five years ago, it demonstrates the turnover of players at our club in that of the starting eleven, Reid, Carroll and Noble are the only three who are still at the club, and Collins is the only one of the seven substitutes still here.

Being quite disheartened by our record in the present century, I looked back to the twentieth century and found little comfort when assessing our historical visits to the North-East. We first played a top flight away game at Newcastle in 1923, the year we played in the first Wembley FA Cup Final. But we didn’t manage a win up there until fifty years later in 1973 when Ted MacDougall netted twice in a 2-1 victory. One more win in the 1970s in 1977 was by the margin of 3-2 with our goals scored by Jennings, Taylor and Pop Robson. In our record breaking 1985-86 campaign we won 2-1 with goals from McAvennie and Cottee (who else?), and our next win was 2-1 in 1989 when Keen and Ward hit the target. A 1-0 victory in the 1997-98 season came from a Stan Lazaridis goal, and we followed this up in the next season with our most emphatic win there, 3-0, with two goals from Ian Wright and another from Trevor Sinclair. In total we have won just seven league games at St James Park in around 50 attempts!

Our last visit there was in January 2016, the season before last, when we conceded two goals in the first quarter of an hour, before Jelavic pulled a goal back early in the second half. We ended up losing 2-1 and Newcastle were relegated that season.

In terms of Premier League status, the Geordies are a club on a similar level to ourselves, being one of the top ten clubs in terms of seasons spent in the top league. Only six clubs have been ever present in the top flight in the 25 years of its existence up to the end of last season, namely Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham and Everton. Aston Villa come next on 24, followed by Newcastle on 22, West Ham on 21, and Manchester City 20.

In that time they have been more successful than us, in that their highest placed finish is 2nd (twice) (ours is 5th), and they have finished in the top four on five occasions, although the last of those was in 2003. Since then they have been relegated twice, but bounced back at the first attempt both times.

Newcastle have made an equally ignominious start to ourselves, and in their first two games of the season they lost 2-0 at home to Tottenham, and then 1-0 at newly-promoted Huddersfield. So they have no points and have not scored a league goal this season. In addition they were dumped out of the EFL cup this week, losing 3-2 at home to Championship side Nottingham Forest.

But beware! In their entire history, Newcastle have only once failed to score in their first three top flight games, and also Rafael Benitez has never lost three consecutive Premier League games as a manager in England. But on the plus side, Chicarito has scored three goals in his last four league games against Newcastle when he has started, and the one that we really hope will continue is that Joe Hart has never been on the losing side in 16 league games against them.

The Sports Analytics Machine (SAM), the super-computer used to predict the outcome of football matches reckons that the game will end in a 1-1 draw. I am more hopeful, and the return of Lanzini, and the confidence of the team gained by our first win in midweek, will I believe lead to our first league win of the season, and only our eighth when visiting Newcastle. I’ll predict a 2-1 victory.

Matchday: West Ham take on Newcastle United

The resistible force encounters the movable object in a bottom of the table clash at St James’ Park.

I am not sure what the opposite of an irresistible force meeting an immovable object is but we may well find out at St James’ Park this afternoon as both sides strive to improve on their 100% losing starts to the season.  Will the powder puff Newcastle attack overcome the wafer thin West Ham defence or will Geordie passion be extinguished by the Javier Hernandez get out of jail free card?  To claim that this a relegation six pointer before the blackberries have ripened is premature in the extreme but the outcome of today’s game could play a major part in deciding the Premier League sack race; or more precisely who the first manager to leave his post will be.  There is added intrigue in the form of persistent speculation linking Rafa Benitez as the next in line for the hot seat at West Ham.

In a cruel twist of fate I ended up watching both of Newcastle’s opening Premier League fixtures live on TV.  They were well beaten in the opener by a cruise control Tottenham with the Toon offering little once their initial enthusiasm had died down and Shelvey was deservedly sent-off.  The follow-up uninspiring encounter with Huddersfield was a more even, but drab, affair which was decided by the game’s only real quality moment when Huddersfield’s Aaron Mooy scored the only goal of the game.  There is clearly an air of smouldering doom surrounding Bentitez and his frustrations with player recruitment could result in a spontaneous eruption at any moment.

“What I think happened is they (Newcastle) tried but maybe they were unable to get those targets that they wanted.  Maybe they were thinking too big and those players, they didn’t want to come.”

– Slaven Bilic surely being ironic about Newcastle’s transfer policy

Both teams were in EFL Cup action during the week and, whereas the Hammers came through unscathed with a competent performance against League Two Cheltenham, Newcastle were dumped out, after extra time, at home to Championship Nottingham Forest; albeit with a definite second string line-up.  Whether West Ham will be buoyed by success or Newcastle humbled by defeat remains to be seen.

Head to Head

Newcastle hold the edge in the all-time record between the two clubs having won 40% of the 129 meetings to West Ham’s 31%.  In the last twelve encounters the Hammers have seen four wins, five defeats and three draws.

It has been a much more one-sided affair for games at St James’ Park with West Ham having won only nine times (and lost thirty six ) out of sixty five attempts.  In the last twelve away fixtures the solitary Hammers success was a 1-0 win, courtesy of a Kevin Nolan goal, in November 2012.  Even the last two away meetings when Newcastle were battling for survival both ended in relatively comfortable victories for the hosts.

Team News

Marko Arnautovic is suspended for West Ham but Winston Reid is the only senior player missing through injury.  This means not only the potential return of Manuel Lanzini but also a phenomenon rarer than a total solar eclipse with both Andy Carroll and Diafra Sakho available for selection at the same time.  Lanzini’s running and creativity have been sorely missed but he may have to settle for a place on the bench if deemed not yet ready to start.  It would be a surprise if Carroll is included in the match-day squad but who knows; he has faced his old club in West Ham colours five times but has so far defied football convention by failing to score.

Elsewhere Cheikhou Kouyate is set to return in a midfield where we will be able to assess the extent of Slaven Bilic’s marble lossage if he persists in selecting Mark Noble ahead of Pedro Obiang.  In defence we should expect the return of seven goal Joe Hart between the sticks and to see 34 year old James Collins start in place of 34 year old Jose Fonte.

“We will see if we can improve as much as we can this week. I will try to do my job.  How much can I improve the team? It depends on how well we work and how much the players can learn.”

– Rafa Benitez has the weight of the world on his shoulders

Newcastle are without the injured Karl Darlow,  DeAndre Yedlin, Paul Dummett and Florian Lejeune plus the suspended Shelvey.  The Toon could see a welcome return for Dwight Gayle who must be one of the most ineffective strikers in the Premier League.

Man in the Middle

Neil Swarbrick from Lancashire is today’s referee.  Swarbrick had a full set when refereeing three West Ham home games last season that saw a win against Palace, a draw with Middlesbrough and defeat to Liverpool.  This will be his second Premier League match of the season having previously officiated at the Everton v Stoke game on the opening weekend.

Predictions

BBC’s Lawro has gone for a 1-1 draw while Paul Merson has predicted a 2-0 win for the Hammers.

I see a number scenarios for this one depending on what happens during Newcastle’s expected early surge.  Whoever scores the opening goal will go on to win and provided that the Hammers do not get off to a typical slow start I can imagine a rare 1-0 victory to bring back from the north-east.

West Ham to face Bolton at home in EFL Cup

The draw for the 3rd Round of the EFL Cup has been completed in Beijing, China.

In a cunning marketing stunt the good people at Carabao have encouraged die-hard supporters to quaff copious amounts of their sugar and caffeine laden beverage in order to stay awake for the 3rd round draw of this year’s EFL Cup.  The draw has taken place in Beijing, China away from the prying eyes of TV cameras in case Mr Cock-Up makes another appearance and picks out the wong numbers.

We have already lost Watford, Southampton and Newcastle in shock round two defeats but now the big boys, and eventual winners, enter the competition.  In an unseeded draw the balls were in alphabetical order with West Ham allocated Number 31 (or Egg Foo Yung).  All ties will be played on Tuesday 19 or Wednesday 20 September 2017.

The Hammer’s having successfully come through a potentially tricky test against League Two Cheltenham are now drawn at home to Bolton Wanderers from the Championship.

The full draw is:

West Brom v Manchester City
Everton v Sunderland
Leicester v Liverpool
Manchester United v Burton Albion
Brentford v Norwich
Wolves v Bristol Rovers
Burnley v Leeds United
Arsenal v Doncaster Rovers
Bristol City v Stoke City
Reading v Swansea
Aston Villa v Middlesbrough
Chelsea v Nottingham Forest
West Ham v Bolton Wanderers
Crystal Palace v Huddersfield
Tottenham v Barnsley or Derby County
Bournemouth v Brighton

Matchday: West Ham go west to Cheltenham Town

West Ham kick off their 58th League Cup campaign with a trip to lowly Cheltenham Town.

With no European distraction this year West Ham join the other Premier League also-rans to enter this season’s EFL Carabao Cup at the second round stage.   Theoretically the easiest domestic competition for a club like ours to win the cup has still been dominated by the big clubs over recent seasons with the ‘top six’ having lifted eleven of the last thirteen trophies.

In its various guises the League Cup is a competition that the Hammers have never won; the closest being losing finalists in 1966 and 1981 together with a handful of semi-final eliminations.  A tie against a Cheltenham side that just about managed to cling on to their Football League status at the death last season and are currently sitting in 20th spot in League Two should be a formality for any Premier League club; although West Ham have endured embarrassing exits in the past to the likes of Darlington, Rotherham, Stockport (twice), Chesterfied and Aldershot.  With the original home draw having been switched to an away game, to accommodate the London Stadium re-configuration, the potential banana-skin-ometer may well have slipped closer to ‘upset’ than might otherwise have been the case.

The Hammers saw off Cheltenham (then in League One) at the same stage of the competition in 2013 when goals from Ricardo Vaz Te and Ravel Morrison helped secure a 2-1 victory at Upton Park.  Although Cheltenham are relative newcomers to the football league there have been a cluster of Hammer’s connections with Cheltenham over the years: former West Ham players Bobby Gould and Martin Allen both briefly sat in the manager’s seat at Whaddon Road in 2003 and 2008 respectively; Michail Antonio made his senior league debut for Cheltenham, while on loan from Reading, during Allen’s reign; West Ham academy players Jamie Victory, Grant McCann, Josh Payne, Emmanuel Onariase and current U21 star Alex Pike all had loan spells with Cheltenham with Victory and McCann going on to enjoy extended careers with The Robins.

Team News

There has been much made already about teams fielding weakened sides in last night’s first crop of EFL Round Two matches.  Quite why teams that have no hope of winning anything else do this is a mystery to me. Does it seriously affect Premier League survival chances?

On the evidence to date it is difficult to see how West Ham could field a weakened defence but we can expect to see first outings of the season for Adrain, James Collins and Sam Byram tonight.  Elsewhere, Diafro Sakho will probably be a starter as will Edmilson Fernandes and there may be call-ups for some of the U21 players who featured in the Premier League 2 win over Spurs on Monday, such as Nathan Holland and Toni Martinez.  I would have added  Domingos Quina but he appears to have been locked away in a safe house with Manuel Lanzini until the transfer window has closed.  Lanzini, Chiekhou Kouyate, Andy Carroll and Winston Reid will not feature due to injury, Arnautovic is suspended and Antonio is unlikely to be risked ahead of the relegation six-pointer at the weekend!

Cheltenham have an injury concern over forward Jerell Sellars but are otherwise at full strength.

Man in the Middle

Tonight’s referee is Oliver Langford from the West Midlands.  Langford does most of his officiating in the Championship and can boast one previous encounter with the Hammers when he took control of the 4-1 victory at Bloomfield Road against Blackpool in February 2012.  A match where he sent of Robert Green for denying a goal-scoring opportunity that saw Henri Lansbury take over in goal as there was no keeper on the bench.

Prediction

It is highly unlikely that we will see a runaway victory tonight but the Hammers have to have enough class to get through this one.  A victory but only by the odd goal.

A Review of West Ham at Southampton

West Ham 2017-18 – What do you think of it so far?

For those of you old enough (like me) to remember the 1970s, one of the famous Morecambe & Wise catchphrases was when Eric Morecambe asked the question in a sketch “what do you think of it so far?” Many of our fans on social media, if asked about the beginning of our season, would appear to have the same answer as that posed in the sketch, which is “rubbish”.

Certainly we are not where we would like to be after two games. Propping up the table with no points, the most goals conceded, the biggest negative goal difference, and a visit to (tongue in cheek, hopefully) fellow relegation strugglers Newcastle up next, does not make for happy reading.

Saturday’s game at Southampton was filled with action, controversy, goals, negatives, some positives, many mistakes, and violent challenges, and we even featured as the first game on Match of the Day, which is something of a rarity. Of course the edited highlights didn’t do real justice to the game, as highlights so frequently do not. Despite playing for a large part of the game with ten men, and at one stage just before half time being two goals down, we fought back well with two well-taken goals from Hernandez, and his performance gives me hope for our goal scoring in the season ahead.

The Reid injury in the warm up is just so typical West Ham, as was conceding a penalty in the 93rd minute to lose the game. Even Mark Noble had a hand in the winning spot-kick by revealing to Charlie Austin that Joe Hart knew where he was going to place the kick, and this made him change his mind. And speaking of typical West Ham, Southampton were thankful for us being the hospitable visitors which allowed them to break their long goal-less sequence at home, and allowed Gabbiadini to score for the first time in eleven games.

Referee Mason was praised in many quarters, not least on Match of the Day for getting almost all his decisions right. Mmmmm. Yes, Arnautavic had to go, but he completely missed Lemina’s leading arm (which should have been a red card beforehand) which led to our Austrian signing’s retaliatory challenge. He also missed a waist high challenge from Tadic early in the game which could have been a red card, he didn’t punish Noble sufficiently for a horror tackle, and he missed a blatant handball which should have given us an obvious penalty.

I may be wrong, but I also thought that fouls which deny a goal-scoring opportunity (where no attempt is made to play the ball) should also result in a sending off. If this is the case, then perhaps Fonte and Zabaleta should have gone too when conceding the two penalties. Since the beginning of the Bilic reign we have now conceded more goals from the penalty spot (13) than any other Premier League team. Arnautavic will miss some games now; the same should be true for Mason in my view.

I could ask so many questions about the game:

Is it me, or was it a bizarre selection with Noble in the team and Obiang on the bench?

Did Fonte really look like a Euro 2016 central defender? What was the point in attempting a stranglehold when the ball was running away from the attacker anyway? Should a defender of this supposed stature be so easily outpaced, and too busy ball-watching, for the first goal.

Has anybody told Zabaleta that pushes in the penalty area, which are not penalties when playing for Manchester City, are more likely to be awarded against West Ham? Did the attacker fall down easily and con the referee?

Have you ever seen Steve McFadden (Phil Mitchell) and Lee Mason together in the same place?

What does Andre Ayew contribute to our cause? Did we really pay £20 million plus for him?

There are so many more that I could ask, but I’ve given up asking rhetorical questions. What’s the point? (Alexei Sayle, Edinburgh 2017)

But there were positives, too. Arnautavic looked lively (in the first few minutes!), Hernandez goals, another assured performance from young Rice, the return of Antonio who looked good, Sakho’s return, and the fight back which resulted in the creation of more shots, and more shots on target than the home side, despite the lack of possession. And we only sit six points off the top, or four away from a Champions League position! Hopefully Lanzini will be back for the next game, too.

But there is a long way to go in the season. We can still push for a top half finish, especially when we get to play some games at home! Currently, Huddersfield, West Brom and Watford are sitting in the top six in the table. None of them will be anywhere close by the end. But they have all stolen a march on us in the opening games. We’ll have to come from behind, just as we did on Saturday.

Five Takeaways from West Ham’s South Coast Heartbreak!

From despair to honour to ultimate heartbreak as the Hammers go down on the south coast.

A Game of Incident Rather Than Quality

Prior to kick-off the commentator, with customary TV hyperbole, was promising a mouth-watering spectacle from the St Mary’s Stadium.  What we got was a match full of incident but short of real quality.  As happens far too frequently in Premier League football the pattern of the game was defined more by a red card and other refereeing decisions than by the skill and cunning of the highly paid participants.  Arguably it made for an entertaining contest, at least for the victors, or even the neutral had there been any watching.  The merrymaking started in the pre-match kickabout when Winston Reid, concerned by the shortening Hammer’s injury list and weighed down by his new contract extension, had to be stretchered off the pitch to leave a formidable Jose Fonte – Angelo Ogbonna pairing at the heart of the Hammer’s defence.  The consequence of Reid’s injury was that West Ham were left a man short on the bench; although I’m not sure whether this was due to league rules or the club saving on the cost of an extra train ticket to put towards the transfer kitty.

The Consistently Inconsistent Referee

Lee Mason is only an occasional Premier League referee who does most of his work in the lower leagues.  On the evidence of yesterday it is not difficult to understand why.  It would be wrong to argue the case that any of the decisions yesterday that directly affected West Ham’s cause were wrong but Mason’s performance was either astoundingly inconsistent or incompetent.  Marko Arnautovic was foolish in the extreme to elbow the defender in the referee’s eye-line and deserved to go but by then Mason had been lenient with Tadic’s assault on Hernandez, missed completely an elbow on Arnautovic himself (to which he was no doubt reacting) as well as a trademark reckless challenge on the edge of the area by Mark Noble.  The first penalty was as stonewall as it was unnecessary to concede, while the second, heart-breaking as it was, is equally impossible to contest.  The accused, Pablo Zabaleta, was mightily aggrieved to have been penalised and whereas it was not the type of decision that would usually go against Manchester City he has to realise he is at West Ham now.  In mitigation challenges such as Zabaletas often go unpunished just as Mason chose (or missed) to penalise what I felt was an obvious handball by a Southampton defender earlier in the second half.

Ten Men or Less (or should that be Fewer?)

There is never a good time to go down to ten men but after just half an hour when you are already a goal down is up there with the worst.  Throw in the fact that several of the players who started contributed little or nothing then it left West Ham with a mountain to climb.  Jose Fonte in particular had a hand in all three goals conceded and must now go straight to the top of the assist charts.  Whoever thought that buying the ageing plane spotter was a good idea needs a slap and why he is seen as better option in the centre of defence than either Reece Burke or Declan Rice is a puzzle.  Everyone has come across a colleague at work who constantly gives the impression of looking busy in effectachieves nothing at all; this is Andre Ayew.  Always manages to photobomb TV close-ups dripping with sweat, hands on head, looking disappointed, cursing his luck or pleading with the referee yet his actual contribution is no more than a walk-on part.  I have a suspicion that unbeknown to us there was a surreptitious body exchange with his brother, Jordan, during his time out injured last year.  Finally, thanks Mark, but your time is now well and truly up.  The treacle runner once again saw the game pass him by and why he was preferred to Pedro Obiang is another to add to the list of Slaven Bilic mysteries.

There Were Some Positives

In the circumstances it was a gutsy performance to come back from two goals down to almost snatch a draw with ten men (or fewer).  What I feared would turn into a rampant demolition culminated with severe disappointment at the added time winner for the hosts; typical that it should be Charlie Austin, publicly maligned by our Chairman, who scored the decisive goal.  Although the closeness of the game was partly due to Southampton not having the belief to press home their advantage it was also a commendable effort on behalf of the Hammers.  In particular the return of Michail Antonio and the predatory skills of Javier Hernandez were impressive positives.  With minimal pre-season preparation, Antonio’s physical presence, commitment, effort and enterprise gave hope that the unexpected could happen and his tenacity was rewarded in setting up the first goal on the stroke of half-time (the nature of which meant, ridiculously, that no assist credit is given).  Little Pea demonstrated why his instinct will always deliver goals and he did this while also putting in tremendous effort as emergency cover for the disgraced Arnautovic.  There was also another assured performance from Rice although I still believe he would be better deployed in the centre of defence.

Better on Paper Than on Grass

The dismissal and near-heroic fight-back distracted from the continued deficiencies and inadequacies of squad and manager.  Even before the sending-off the defence was opened up at will down Southampton’s right wing and the first goal highlighted how vulnerable West Ham are against attacks at pace through the middle.  The squad on paper looks strong enough but unfortunately the teams put out on the pitch are less than the sum of their parts; through a lack of cohesion, organisation plus the aforementioned passengers.  With Manuel Lanzini and Chiekhou Kouyate still to return there should be a decent starting eleven in there somewhere if only it could be exploited, but cover is worryingly thin in some areas with only Lanzini capable of offering much in the way of subtlety and creativity.  Patting ourselves on the back for a successful transfer window is looking increasingly premature.  Hernandez looks to be a fantastic signing and cheap at half the price but my personal jury is still out as to what the others can offer.  Hart doesn’t look the keeper he once was and I doubt whether he even dominates the area as much as Adrian does?  Zabaleta has commitment and experience but does he have the legs for a long hard slog?   I am definitely sceptical on Arnautovic and he has much to prove; he never consistently wowed at Stoke and is a fair-weather player who turns up when he feels like it really what we need?  With the transfer window open for just over another week I hope that extra pace and athleticism in central midfield and defence are firmly on the radar.  Otherwise current trajectory says no better than last season and quite possibly far worse!

Matchday: Will West Ham Turn Up Today at Southampton?

More misery on the road or a kick start to the season down on the south coast?

The team that has gone six games at home without a goal plays the team that, on last week’s evidence, look like they wouldn’t be able to score in a month of Sundays.  So a goal-fest at the St Mary’s Stadium would be improbable were it not for the Hammer’s obliging nature in ending the dismal sequences of the other clubs.

Most West Ham supporters would consider the Hammers a bigger club than the Saints although this has not been in evidence over recent years.  Southampton pipped West Ham for automatic promotion in the 2011/12 Championship campaign and have finished higher in the Premier League in each of the last four seasons.  Despite finishing in a creditable eighth spot last season, the south coast club elected to change managers and now have a new boss in Argentine Mauricio Pellegrino, who has been described as a ‘breath of fresh air’ by his playing staff.

“They know they are not only following West Ham but ‘living’ West Ham. Those fans, they know how well the chairmen are doing for the club – how much they have invested – and they have taken it a long way up already.”

– Slaven Bilic on the Owners

Southampton also have new Chinese owners and they have inherited a well run club that appears to have a long term plan, a philosophy of how the game should be played ( regardless of manager) and a belief in giving a chance to their young players.  It is in stark contrast to the erratic, unfocused and unplanned direction witnessed at West Ham just now.  One report suggested kindly, after last week’s debacle, that the Hammers were a team in transition but sadly this level of uncertainty has become business as usual in the east-end.

Head to Head

West Ham can still boast supremacy in the all-time record with Southampton having won forty and lost thirty of the 105 senior meetings.  Honours are even at four apiece in the last twelve encounters, home and away, while in away games only West Ham have won two and lost six of the last twelve. In the eight meetings since Southampton moved to St Mary’s the Hammers have lost three times and won just the once, with a draw being the favoured outcome.  The sole victory was, of course, last season’s ultimately comfortable 3-1 victory earned with goals from Andy Carroll, Pedro Obiang and Mark Noble despite a typically shaky start.

Team News

West Ham welcome back Michail Antonio from a reducing injury list that now only includes three players; Manuel Lanzini, Cheikhou Kouyate and Carroll.  Without Lanzini the side continues to lack creativity but Antonio’s energy and power will be welcome, assuming that he is yet working at full throttle.

From the fall-out of last Sunday I would expect to see Aaron Cresswell re-installed at left back but whether that will be as part of a back four or in a slightly more advanced wing back role is anyone’s guess.  One of Antonio or Andre ‘What Does He Actually Do’ Ayew will likely be given attacking central midfield duties to give the impression of support to Javier Hernandez.  Obiang and Noble are probable starters with Declan Rice being introduced later on.

“We have to use our experience from Swansea and use everything we did in this game to keep learning and to use this experience for the next few games.”

– Mauricio Pellegrino

Southampton have no injury problems and can choose from a fully fit squad.  In recognition of the new Chinese influence on the south coast my takeaway is that we need to look out for Number 10, Number 16 and Number 22.

The Man in the Middle

Today’s referee is Lee Mason from Lancashire.  Mason’s only appointment last season with West Ham was in the 1-0 home win over Hull where he awarded a controversial penalty for a foul on Antonio, converted by Noble for the only goal of the game.

Predictions

The BBC’s Lawro and Sky Sport’s Paul Merson are going for 2-1 and 1-0 respectively.

I worked in Southampton at one time in my life and was a relatively frequent visitor to Saints games, although mainly in The Dell days.  Their fans have an innocent excitability about them, like schoolgirls at an international hockey game, and I predict that they will be very excited once more this afternoon with a 3-1 victory that will leave the Hammer’s firmly rooted in bottom spot.

A preview of West Ham at Southampton

After the Manchester United debacle, a trip down the M3 to visit Southampton, one of West Ham’s challengers to finish as champions of the second tier of the Premier League

I believe that the top seven places in the Premier League are already reserved for the two Manchester clubs, the two Merseyside teams, and the London trio of Tottenham, Chelsea, and Arsenal. I’d love to be proved wrong but I’d get short odds from a bookmaker on those teams to finish at the top, even though the exact order that they will finish in is not cut and dried.

Southampton are the current “champions of the second tier of teams in the Premier League” after their eighth place finish last season, although the competition for this “honour” is a close run thing. They only finished a point ahead of ourselves (11th), and only six points separated 8th from 17th. I anticipate a similar close contest this time around.

In many ways the recent fortunes of Southampton are fairly similar to our own, although they have slightly the upper hand when it comes to league positions. We were both promoted to the top tier in 2011-12; they just pipped us for the second automatic place by two points, and it was the two games that we played each other that proved to be the difference. A 0-1 reverse at St. Mary’s in October 2011 was followed by a 1-1 draw in a controversial game at Upton Park on Valentine’s Day in 2012. Their four points to our one was essentially why they went up automatically, although with the benefit of hindsight, I wouldn’t have wanted to miss that great day at Wembley in May 2012 when we beat Blackpool in the play-off final.

In the first season back in the Premier League (2012-13) we finished a creditable tenth, with five more points that Southampton who were 14th. The following year our placings were reversed with the Saints 8th, 16 points ahead of ourselves in 13th. In 2014-15 the gap was 13 points with their seventh placed finish five places in front of us (12th). We both had excellent seasons in 2015-16; we were pleased to finish in seventh place in what in many ways (although not finishing position) many consider was our best ever season in the Premier League, but once again they were slightly above us by one position (6th) and one point. And one point (and three places) was their slender advantage over us last season.

In our two most recent games we shared the spoils, with a comprehensive Southampton victory (3-0) at the London Stadium just a fortnight after we had thrown away a two goal advantage in the home game against Watford last September, the catalysts for early season discontent which saw us sitting in a relegation place at the time. But by the time we met them in the reverse fixture at their place early in February this year, our fortunes had picked up considerably, and the three goals from Carroll, Obiang and Noble in a 3-1 win pushed us up to 9th place in the table. In a season where we only managed to score three or more goals in a league game on four occasions, we were in a hot streak (by our standards) at this time, scoring three goals for the third time in just three weeks. I try to forget though, that just three days before our victory at St Mary’s, Manchester City hammered us 4-0 at the London Stadium.

Head-to-head in the last six seasons (the Championship promotion year, and the five seasons since), we are very even with four wins, four draws and four defeats, with 15 goals scored to their 14. One interesting feature of this period is that Andy Carroll has scored in three of those games, although he is not yet ready to return to action, but Mark Noble has done even better. He has scored in four of the games (five goals in total), which must make our opponents one of his favourite teams to play against.

Our injury list has only reduced slightly with the return of Michail Antonio, although Sakho appears to have remained OK after his substitute appearance last weekend. Carroll, Kouyate, and Lanzini are all apparently close to a return but not quite close enough. Based upon last week’s performance, and the principle of horses for courses, as well as the need to recognise that Hernandez needs a partner to be at his best, I would expect our manager to name the following line-up for this game:

Hart

Zabaleta, Reid, Ogbonna, Cresswell,

Antonio, Noble, Obiang, Arnautovic,

Hernandez, Sakho

My main concerns, which are not new, are the possibility of being over-run in midfield, giving the ball away cheaply too often, the lack of pace at the back, and our slow build-up play. The manager may opt for Ayew (although I don’t know why), and Rice would be unlucky not to be called up based upon his excellent cameo at Old Trafford. Fernandes remains a good young prospect, but like Masuaku, both had poor games last weekend and may find themselves on the bench. Perhaps Sakho is not yet ready for a start, and either Antonio or Arnautavic might be pushed forward to partner Hernandez, which might give us the opportunity to bolster the midfield. Hopefully, all the players will be aware of the imminent return of Carroll, Lanzini, and Kouyate, and put in performances worthy of the shirt.

I’ll predict a draw, but hope that I am wrong and we sneak a victory. Perhaps Mark Noble will add to his goal tally against Southampton? Let us hope for an improved performance, and that we are not still at the foot of the table after this round of matches.