As a West Ham fan I know we will never win the Premier League

Premier League football is no fun anymore with the vast differential in money available leading to predictability.

The Premier League has become a financial juggernaut, but the gap between the top clubs and the rest has stretched to a point where competitiveness feels like an illusion. When a handful of teams can outspend entire leagues it’s no surprise that some of the magic gets lost. Underdog stories become rarer, and the league becomes predictable.

It’s interesting how the same financial might that brings in the world’s best talent and global attention can also erode the soul of the sport for long-time supporters. Loyalty, local identity, and the joy of unexpected triumphs can get drowned out by branding and billion-pound transfer sagas.

As a West Ham fan I know at the beginning of every season that cup competitions are our only opportunity to win trophies. Sometimes I have despaired when we haven’t even seemed to make the effort to try to succeed in those. I have been fortunate to witness successful FA Cup wins in 1964, 1975 and 1980 as well as a couple of European trophies in 1965 and 2023. Not a lot to show for almost 70 years of following the team. A near miss in the 2006 FA Cup Final too, as well as in the 1981 League Cup final when we were possibly one of the best second tier sides that there has ever been. And I’ll never forget our amazing run in the 1975-76 European Cup Winners Cup competition where we lost in the final, but the quarter final and semi final second legs at Upton Park were two of the greatest games I’ve witnessed.

Our best ever league season was of course 1985-86 when we finished third in the old First Division just four points adrift of winners Liverpool after being in contention right up until the final week. We might have even been champions with a better start to that campaign – we only won one of our first seven games and languished in 17th place at that point. But there is no chance of a repeat of that season 40 years ago. The best we can possibly hope for in the league is to qualify for European competition. So many clubs can qualify now – we have 9 teams from England playing in one or other of the three available competitions next season. I cannot see any way that we can compete for the Premier League title.

So I racked my brains to try to consider what potential reforms could restore competitiveness in top flight football? There are a few that I have often heard floated that could inject some much-needed balance back into football, especially in the Premier League. Several sports have implemented reforms that significantly improved competitiveness, fairness, or sustainability. Here are a few examples:

  1. Salary Caps / Redistribution of Broadcast Revenue: One of the most debated ideas. A ceiling on player wages, like in American sports leagues, could help level the playing field. The National Football League (NFL) in the USA introduced a hard salary cap in 1994, ensuring teams couldn’t spend beyond a set limit on player wages. Combined with equal sharing of TV revenue, this has helped maintain parity—any team can realistically compete for the Super Bowl. The Premier League currently splits TV revenue more evenly than some leagues, but there’s still a disproportionate benefit to finishing higher. A more socialist approach could help smaller clubs grow sustainably. But with global competition and the Premier League’s appeal, enforcing this without causing talent drain would be tricky, and probably impossible.
  2. Competitive Balance Tax: American Basketball (NBA) and also Major League Baseball impose a luxury tax that penalises teams that exceed a spending threshold, redistributing funds to lower-spending teams. It wouldn’t stop spending but might redistribute its impact.
  3. Draft System The NBA and the NFL use a draft system that gives weaker teams first pick of new talent, helping to balance the league.
  4. Tighter Financial Fair Play (FFP) Rules: FFP exists, but surely it lacks teeth. Stronger regulations with real consequences for overspending might rein in runaway budgets. At the moment some clubs spend vast sums on new recruits that the majority of Premier League teams cannot compete with. Not surprisingly this makes the strong teams stronger.
  5. Squad Size & Loan Limits: Big clubs stockpiling talent and loaning out dozens of players distorts competition. Capping squad sizes and loans could force more even distribution of quality players.
  6. Fan Ownership or Influence Models: Inspired by Germany’s 50+1 rule. This rule ensures that club members (usually fans) hold a majority of voting rights, preventing external investors from taking full control. It’s credited with preserving club identity and financial responsibility, even if it limits spending compared to the Premier League.
  7. Formula 1 – Budget Cap (2021): To reduce the dominance of wealthier teams, F1 introduced a cost cap on team operations. It’s already led to closer racing and more unpredictable outcomes, with mid-tier teams occasionally challenging the front-runners.

These reforms weren’t always popular at first, but many have stood the test of time. If football took a page from these examples, it might just rediscover some of its lost unpredictability. Of course, the real challenge is that the very clubs most resistant to reform hold the most sway. Still, the soul of the game relies on the thrill of the unexpected. Unfortunately, Leicester 2016 was a one-off, it won’t happen again.

Adapting successful reforms from other sports to the Premier League probably isn’t possible – but it could be transformative if only it could be achieved. Here’s how some of the systems might be tailored (watered down!) to fit football’s culture and structure:

1. Salary Cap with Flexibility: A hard cap like in the NFL might clash with the global football transfer market, but a soft cap with luxury tax—like the NBA—could work. Wealthier clubs could still spend big, but they’d pay a hefty penalty for doing so. That tax revenue could then be shared with lower-tier clubs or reinvested in grassroots development.

2. Draft-Style Youth Allocation: While a full American-style draft might feel out of place, the Premier League could introduce a mechanism for sharing standout academy talent. For example, smaller clubs might get priority access to players released by top-tier academies or receive compensation tied to playing opportunities they provide young players.

3. 50+1-Style Governance: Replicating Germany’s 50+1 rule might be a tough sell politically and commercially but encouraging greater fan ownership or mandating supporter representation on club boards would help bring accountability and reconnect clubs with local communities.

4. Enhanced Revenue Sharing: The Premier League already shares a portion of broadcast revenue, but tweaking the formula to provide more meaningful support to lower-revenue clubs could make a big difference. For instance, increase the base share for all teams and reduce performance-based bonuses slightly to even things out without removing incentives.

5. Cost Control Through Squad Caps: Clubs could be limited not just by spending but by total squad value or squad size. This would prevent talent hoarding by the biggest clubs and ensure more players get competitive minutes across the league.

6. Centralised Contracting for Young Talent: Adapting the Irish rugby model, the FA or Premier League could centrally contract a pool of national youth or U21 players. These players could be distributed based on developmental needs, ensuring both top-level experience and competitive balance.

Of course, any of these changes would require buy-in from stakeholders—owners, players, fans, and governing bodies. But if the goal is to make football more open, more exciting, and more equitable, there are definitely paths forward. But as I wrote before we are too far down the road and there are too many reasons why it won’t happen.

Clutching at straws I wondered if a handicapping system as in horse racing could be implemented? It’s a fascinating idea, and not as far-fetched as it might sound at first. In horse racing, handicapping works by assigning different weights to horses based on their ability, aiming to equalise their chances of winning. Theoretically, a similar system in football could involve performance-based disadvantages for stronger teams to level the playing field.

Here’s how a football version might look:

  • Points Handicaps: Start dominant teams with a points deficit at the beginning of the season. It’s radical, but it would certainly shake things up.
  • Transfer Restrictions: Limit the number or value of incoming transfers for top-performing clubs, effectively “weighing them down” in the market.
  • Fixture Difficulty Weighting: Adjust scheduling so stronger teams face tougher fixtures earlier or more frequently away from home.
  • In-Game Constraints: This would be controversial but imagine limiting substitutions or squad depth for top clubs in certain matches.

Of course, the challenge is that football isn’t a closed system like horse racing or American sports leagues. It’s global, with interconnected competitions and massive commercial interests. Any artificial constraint would be seen as undermining meritocracy and would spark legal challenges.

Still, the spirit of handicapping – engineering unpredictability and fairness – is something football desperately needs. Maybe a hybrid model, like enhanced revenue redistribution or dynamic squad caps based on recent success, could capture that essence without breaking the game.

A handicapping-style system in football would be a radical shift from tradition, but if implemented thoughtfully, it could offer several compelling benefits—particularly for restoring competitive balance and reinvigorating fan engagement. Here’s how:

1. Increased Unpredictability: By design, handicapping would reduce the advantage of dominant clubs, making outcomes less predictable. That unpredictability is what keeps fans glued to their seats—think of the buzz around surprise title runs like Leicester’s in 2016.

2. Renewed Relevance for Mid-Table Clubs: Clubs outside the elite would feel they have a genuine shot at silverware or European qualification. That alone could re-energise fanbases, attract better players to smaller clubs, and create a more dynamic league overall.

3. Rewarding Long-Term Planning Over Just Spending Power: If the system penalises consistent overperformance or overspending, clubs would need to be smarter focusing on scouting, youth development, coaching, and chemistry rather than just flexing financial muscle.

4. Boosted Viewer Interest: Global audiences tune in for drama and storylines. A more level playing field would mean more meaningful matches and tighter title races, which boosts engagement, TV ratings, and revenue for everyone.

5. Revived Romanticism of the Game: Football has always been about hope – the belief that any club can dream big. A handicapping system could help restore that spirit, making football less like a billionaire’s playground and more like a battleground of passion and grit.

Of course, implementing it fairly would be a tall order—defining the metrics, avoiding legal challenges, and maintaining meritocracy. But philosophically? It taps into something a lot of fans yearn for: the feeling that anything is possible again.

If only some of these ideas were adopted in a small way it might help, but has it gone too far now? There’s a sense among many fans, including me, that football’s drift into a money-dominated spectacle has passed the point of no return. The financial stakes are so enormous, and the power so concentrated at the top, that even small reforms feel like drops in an ocean of imbalance.

But I wouldn’t say it’s too far gone – almost but not totally, not yet. Could small changes still be possible? Football still has its grassroots, its local heroes, and a global fan base that genuinely cares about the integrity of the sport. If enough pressure comes from fans, regulators, and smaller clubs, meaningful changes could still happen. It might not be a revolution, but even incremental changes like stronger FFP enforcement or better revenue sharing can start nudging things in the right direction.

If it has really gone too far now (and if I’m honest with myself it probably has) then it speaks volumes about how disconnected the upper echelons of football have become from the people who helped build it: the fans. When billion-pound ownerships and corporate interests dictate the rhythm of the game, it’s easy to feel like voices from the stands are just background noise.

But even small ripples can make waves. The fan protests that helped derail the European Super League weren’t backed by billions—they were powered by sheer passion and public pressure. The 50+1 conversations in the UK? Sparked by fans. Even safe standing and more equitable ticket pricing have gained traction in some clubs thanks to persistent grassroots lobbying. Maybe it won’t flip the pyramid overnight, but change doesn’t always need to be seismic.

As well as supporting West Ham in the Premier League I like to watch lower league and youth football, The Premier League has the best players of course but the excitement is missing because of the predictability. There’s something raw and beautifully human about lower league and youth football—where matches aren’t drowned in glitz, but crackle with real tension, local pride, and moments of unexpected brilliance. It’s football in its purest form, unfiltered by billionaire ownership or endless VAR delays. Unpredictability is the heartbeat of sport. The feeling that anything can happen. When it’s missing, even the most technically flawless performance can feel sterile.

There’s magic in seeing a teenager curl one top corner for the Under 15s or watching a non-league side grind out a win in front of 500 fans who know every chant by heart. No fireworks show required—just graft, heart, and the echo of hope in every tackle. – it’s football with soul. You’re watching young players develop before your eyes, where every pass and goal actually means something deeply personal to the community. It’s not about megastars or multi-million-pound sponsors—it’s about belonging. That feeling when a small crowd roars like it’s 60,000 strong, or when a player claps every hand on the touchline because those faces actually mean something. That’s football at its most human.

The Premier League may have the flash, but lower league and youth football feels more authentic, more grounded. There’s no corporate gloss just muddy boots, raw talent, and a crowd that claps for effort as much as for goals. I have been rediscovering the joy of football not in superstars, but in the passion of a local lad sprinting down the wing in the rain, or a promotion campaign that means everything.

And yet even now as I reflect on this article I still get a buzz in anticipation of the new football season that is approaching. I still want to see West Ham really performing well at the top level. I still read the ridiculous articles every day that suggest we are going to buy x/y/z and laugh to myself. I enjoy the summer sport, the cricket, especially the test matches, the Open, Wimbledon, horse racing on the flat, and this year the Women’s Euros. But nothing beats watching football at all levels. And despite the predictability of the Premier League I’ll still be hoping for a successful season for West Ham just as I have every year since 1958. But one thing is for sure. We won’t be challenging to win the Premier League. I’m afraid we won’t even come close.

West Ham Wednesday Bulletin: Graham Plotter And The Window Of Uncertainty

As other clubs fine tune their squads for the upcoming season, the promised squad rebuild at West Ham remains stalled in the planning and plotting stage. It’s all looking disastrously last minute.

Updating Transfer Windows – 13% Complete – Please Do Not Switch Off

What better way to undertake a massive summer squad overhaul than to leave everything until the last minute. While other clubs move with purpose to secure their chosen signings, the good folks at the London Stadium are left paralysed in an endless loop of talk but no action.

At the time of writing, eight players who featured in the first team last season have already checked out. If reports are true, the club are also willing to push a further three or four through the departure gates over the coming weeks. Regardless of the quality of the departed, it’s one hell of a gap to fill with just over four weeks to go before the big kick-off – despite yesterday’s welcome signing of El Hadji Malick Diouf from Slavia Prague.

As fans we are frequently reminded how important it is to get in a full pre-season. It is the go-to excuse manager’s use after every poor start. And yet the cunning West Ham plan is to enter theirs with barely half a team. Past performance caveats notwithstanding, Graham Potter’s inability to create a cohesive unit in five months last season does nothing to dispel fears that there’s a season of struggle ahead – and the further hit of revenues that comes with it.

If anything can be read into the Diouf signing, it is that Potter intends to settle on a formation that involves wing backs providing width in advance of three central defenders. Possibly a 3-4-3 but, more plausibly, the less enterprising 3-5-2 underpinning the coach’s dream of competitively losing most games by a single goal. All that’s needed now then are the missing, keeper, central defenders, midfielders, and forwards to convert the dream into possession-based reality.

The transfer window stays open beyond the start of the season until September 1. There are sure to be more ins and outs – eventually, and almost certainly later than desirable. As always the list of online speculative targets is as lengthy, abstract and mysterious as Jeffrey Epstein’s’.

The Madness of Chairman Dave

It would be unfair to point the finger of indecision exclusively at Potter and Kyle Macaulay for the absence of transfer activity. For all we know, they have been working diligently and with laser sharp focus on a data driven list of potential young and athletic recruits to fit their chosen style of play. Players who would both improve the squad technically and ensure that it is faster, fitter, and younger. The signing of Diouf looks an excellent first step in that direction.

But as we all know, hovering in the background of any transfer negotiation is the malignant interference of Chairman Dave and his Baroness sidekick. Ready to scupper or derail the latest recruitment plans as he had with Husillos, Newman and Steidten in the past.

By chance, I came across an article I had written in 2017 (below) after hearing a Sullivan radio interview where he “accepted that by focusing on proven and experienced ability the club had adopted a short-term view for its player recruitment.” The suggestion being that this short-term thinking was about to change. But here we are eight years later beating the same drum on the club’s failure to adopt any semblance of long-term strategic thinking.

Sullivan: Give Me Just A Little More Time!

The West Ham friendly media continue to frame the Hammers transfer dealings as a delicate PSR balancing tightrope. Indeed, there may well be trouble ahead if PSR is not abandoned (as many expect) in favour of a simpler squad cost ratio. But this is not a today problem. And if the worse comes to the worse, why not sell the women’s team to yourself as others have already done?

The most recent financial distraction has involved scare stories circulating about the need to repay the club’s overdraft facility with Barclays Bank. This is an arrangement that has been in place some years and its relevance has been significantly exaggerated. In fact, a standout feature of West Ham accounts in 2024 was that the club has next to no financial debt, having paid off any external loans at the time of the last cash injection into the club. This is quite unusual for a Premier League club where financial debts of £300 million or more are not uncommon. It should be noted, however, that financial debts do not include outstanding instalments on player transfers.

Clearly West Ham do have a cash flow problem. It is something the Board must address independently of any PSR considerations. The need to inject capital on a regular basis is now an essential requirement for any Premier Club with ambition. If the current board are not up for that, then it’s time to find someone who is.

It’s Been The Ruin of Many A Poor Buy

I have mixed feelings about the transfer of Mohammed Kudus. Not that he was sold but the size of the fee that he finally went for.

Unless the club is bought by a sovereign wealth fund or similar, the only way West Ham can hope to mount a consistent challenge at the right end of the table is to profit from player sales. When you consider that Manchester City’s kit partnership with Puma earns more in a single deal than the Hammer’s combined Commercial and Matchday revenues then the size of the gulf is clear.

Kudus should have been a perfect model of buy low, sell low. Pick him up from a lesser league, develop him over a couple of seasons and sell on at a handsome profit. Yet despite early promise, it didn’t work out like that.

Some may say it’s good riddance to a player with a bad attitude. Others may see a player who became fatally frustrated with how he was handled by a succession of poor management decisions. Whichever it was, his first season promise evaporated to the point where none of the truly rich clubs were tempted by the lure of his buy-out clause. Throw in Sullivan’s bizarre decision to let the world know how skint West Ham were and it provided the perfect storm for Daniel Levy to nip in and buy Kudus at a knock down price. The transfer fee may represent an accounting profit of £30 million or so – a rare bounty for West Ham – but it should have been far higher.

Tottenham has often (along with West Ham and Manchester United) been one of the Premier League career graveyards for big money signings, but I predict Kudus will be a big hit there if Thomas Frank translates his rapid counterattacking style of football from west to north London.

Young, Gifted and Back (On The Bench)

For a club that styles itself as the ‘Academy of Football’, the record for developing young talent in recent years has been abysmal. In the last ten years, new academy graduates have made a total of 253 Premier League starts for the Hammers. Of those, 190 were Declan Rice with the remainder comprising Ben Johnson (38), Ollie Scarles (7), Grady Diagana (6), Jeremy Ngakia (5), Reece Burke (4), Reece Oxford (3). Without the good fortune of picking up Rice when he was rejected by Chelsea it is very sorry reading.

The idea then that today’s current batch of youngsters might come to the club’s rescue as ‘Potter Gives Youth A Chance’ sits somewhere between wishful thinking and clutching at straws. I am as thrilled as anyone whenever a player emerges from the youth setup to become a West Ham regular. And hopefully, one or more of the current crop can do so. But history advises caution.

I try to keep tabs on the players out on loan from West Ham season but did not get the sense of outstanding successes that some have been reporting. No-one really pulling up the proverbial trees. I would be very happy if there are breakthroughs this season but I wouldn’t want to bet our Premier League future on it.  

West Ham Monday Briefing: Too Quiet On The Transfer Front

With less than seven weeks to go before the big kick-off what is happening to the much needed rebuild at the London Stadium. How skint are we, who will be sold, who will be banned and are we ever going to sign any new players?

It was Kick-Off Day minus 47. The wind howled around the empty, soulless Rush Green portacabins, as dust swirled across the cracked, abandoned car park. A single corner flag flapped rhythmically in the breeze, forgotten when the last training session ended just a few short weeks earlier. Nothing stirred except for an old man and the squeaking wheels of a white line marker in the far distance – otherwise, no life, no sound; only silence and despair.

In one corner, a rusty padlock hung above a door marked ‘Head of Recruitment’. A handwritten paper sign sellotaped to the splintered window read: ‘First Class Players Wanted – All Positions. Please state age, experience and preferred agent.’ Welcome to West Ham in the Transfer Window!

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 If You Can’t Convince Them, Confuse Them

A few weeks ago, I published an article on the realities of the financial situation at West Ham. Although, it is now accepted that West Ham had never faced an immediate threat of a PSR breach, the rules continue to be waved around as a portent for troubled times ahead – possibly the 2026/27 season but more probably the one after that. Yet in all likeihood, the existing PSR rules won’t survive that long now that Chelsea have destroyed their credibility.

Not surprisingly, it was in the Board’s interest to point the finger at ‘externally’ imposed rules rather than admit their own mismanagement for the club’s current woes. I had often wondered why the remaining Premier League clubs had voted for PSR in the first place given its major impact was to preserve the rich club status quo. But then you realise that for most, the priority is not to compete with the rich but to maintain their own advantage over those who are newly promoted.

The dilemma in understanding what is going on at West Ham in this age of misinformation is whether what we read has genuinely been leaked by the club, has been misunderstood/ misreported by the messengers or simply been made-up in the interest of internet clicks.  

The major talking points in recent weeks have been the suggestion that only 75% of player sales will be made available for purchases, and the hint that a £90 million injection of capital is about to be made by the Board. The former is almost certainly a confusion arising from PSR accounting principles where only the excess of sale price over book value can be shown as player sale profit. I’m guessing that someone has made a back of an envelope calculation that this might equate approximately to 75%.  As for the latter, the Board now find themselves in a position where they are obliged to invest further or face the prospect of PSR losses over the next three years being limited to £15 million, rather than £105 million. What form the investment takes, who puts their hands in their pockets, and how the money is used will provide interesting insights into the mindset and intentions of each of the owners.

Such is the dislike and distrust of David Sullivan by many supporters that is has spawned all manner of wacky conspiracy theories. Allegedly the Chairman has a secret plan to get the club relegated as a deliberate act of revenge, making a moonlight flit out of Stratford and baling out of an airplane over the nearest tax haven hugging his parachute payment. Personally, I believe the woeful management of the club is better expalined by Hanlon’s razor which suggests: “never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.” For stupidity, read collective incompetence driven by a gaggle of overblown egos.

 What A Waste of Money

It should come as no surprise to many that the effectiveness of West Ham’s transfer spending over the years has been atrocious. Take Declan Rice out the equation and the player trading profits are at the bottom of the league. If there was any lingering doubt, then take a look at the estimates of squad value calculated by the Transfermkt website (below). Not just that West Ham is ranked in 14th place – despite their relatively high spending – but how far they are behind clubs such as Brighton, Bournemouth and Forest.

1) Man City – €1.35 BN, 2) Chelsea – €1.21BN, 3) Liverpool – €1.09 BN, 4) Arsenal – €1.01BN, 5) Man United – €818 M, 6) Tottenham – €805 M, 7) Brighton – €732 M, 8) Newcastle – €597 M, 9) Aston Villa – €574 M, 10) Bournemouth – €466 M, 11) Nottingham Forest – €444 M, 12) Brentford – €432 M, 13) Crystal Palace – €426 M, 14) West Ham – €370 M, 15) Fulham – €318 M, 16) Wolves – €276 M, 17) Everton – €257 M, 18) Leeds – €211 M, 19) Burnley – €187 M, 20) Sunderland – €137 M

This is no accident or from run of bad luck but a direct consequence of failing to move with the times. Refusing to adopt a professional approach to scouting, recruiting and longer-term planning. Taking the easy option of relying on agents to identify targets rather than trusting the club’s own resources. Paying lip service to the trends of data analytics and appointing experienced football directors in the belief that a bunch of amateurs can do it better.

Profits on player sales is a significant component of football finances – and will continue to be important if/ when squad cost ratios replace PSR. A smarter club in West Ham’s position would have recognised this long ago and planned for the recruitment and development of younger players who can sustain and raise the club out of its current stagnation. It is a strategy that also calls for the setting aside of sentiment. There is an optimum time to sell any player, no matter who they are.   

All Quiet On The Transfer Front

As usual the early days of a West Ham transfer window has been all noise and no action. Last summer I made of point of making a note of every player linked to the club but gave up after the list broke through the one hundred barrier.

The backdrop to this summer’s business have been the baffling public announcements of “we’re skint and must sell before we buy.” Quite why anyone would show all their cards before entering into any negotiations is beyond bizarre. Was the intention solely to manage supporter expectations, an attempt to hide behind PSR regulations or something more sinister. Now we know the club’s problem is cash flow (and not PSR), we also know that it is something the Board can quite easily fix – after all they broke it in the first place. The promised £90 million injection – in whatever form it takes – should serve to partially ease the impasse.  

We know very little about the direction Graham Potter and Kyle Macaulay’s thoughts. The assumed principles of pursuing younger emerging talent sounds eminently sensible. Hopefully they are locked away in a quiet corner somewhere, methodically poring over the rows and columns of a recruitment spreadsheet. Keeping tabs on the players that the data has identified and preparing the bids to be put forward. But will they be allowed to excel themselves in the transfer window or will their preferred targets end up as more names in the list of the ones who got away? Sacrificed to the rubbish bin of low-ball bids, take-it-or-leave-it offers and DFS style payment terms.

Potter and Macaulay have a massive job on their hands to rebuild the Hammer’s sqaud. If they also to lose Kudus and Paqueta as predicted to fund recruitment the challenge becomes even greater – both in finding the players and subsequenting moulding a team from a bunch of strangers. My preference is that they are shopping in the under £25 to £30 million aisle, prioritising pace and excluding anyone aged 27 or over, except in exceptional circumstances. Otherwise, it will be a case of rinse and repeat when we reach the same time next year, requiring a third consecutive summer reconstruction.  

Today, is when the majority of Premier League clubs get to close their accounts (West Ham’s closed at the end of May), so we can expect activity to pick up this week. There may also be last minutes manoeuvrings by any club (e.g. Aston Villa) who find themselves on the cusp of a PSR breach.

In truth, transfer business has been relatively slow across the board, but we have been here before at West Ham. Looking patiently at the clock as the minutes, hours and days tick by. When others start to spend while West Ham sit on their hands, making enquiries, considering targets and preparing talks.

As things stand the Hammers are deep in the ‘conversation’ for relegation. We cannot rely on there being three worse promoted teams again. We have to make ours better. It really is time to act. COYI!   

Counting And Spilling The Beans On West Ham United’s Finances

Here we go! The silly season of transfer bids, player wages, contract lengths, amortisation and PSR breeches is upon us. How does this leave West Ham’s Finances. Strong and stable, or in a mess?

The once simple beautiful game has mutated into a strange and complicated beast for its followers in recent years. A plague of over analysis, statistical overload, tactical complexities, formation paralysis, and eccentric rule interpretations requires fans to understand double pivots, false 9s, low blocks, high presses, inverted wingers, box-to-box midfields and whether a player was entitled to go down. But making matters even worse is the need to be a financial wizard, understanding concepts such as profit and sustainability rules, associated party transactions, player amortisation, shareholder loans and squad cost ratios.

As we enter the summer madness of the transfer window, we take a look at the current state of West Ham’s finances and how they compare with selected other clubs.

Revenues – Where Does The Money Come From?

Despite being ranked as a top twenty club in the 2024 world football rich list – a status they will struggle to retain in 2025 in the absence of European competition – a massive gulf remains between West Ham’s income and the ‘rich 6’ of English football.  Clubs such as Liverpool and Arsenal are able to generate revenues 2.7 times larger than those currently earned by the Hammers. The gap is impossible to narrow for any club lacking regular Champions League participation; or the financial muscle and ambition to challenge for it.

Broadcasting revenues (the central distribution of funds from the Premier League and UEFA for TV rights and prize money) continue to dominate at West Ham where they account for 60% of all income received. Comparable metrics for Liverpool and Arsenal are 33% and 43% respectively, illustrating how the bigger clubs use their global appeal to drive Matchday and Commercial revenues that dwarf those achieved at the London Stadium.

Although West Ham can boast the second largest matchday attendance in the Premier League, they drop to eighth in terms of matchday revenues, even in a season that saw a creditable Europa League campaign. Average revenue per fan is on a par with Fulham and Brentford, and behind the rich six, Newcastle and Brighton. The move to the London Stadium has not proven to be the money spinner promised and attempts at squeezing more from those attending, removing concessions, or attracting a greater proportion of higher spending casual visitors (tourists) have met with understandable resistance.

Commercial revenues have seen incremental growth through additional or improved sponsorship deals, pre-season tours and retail merchandising, but with a slower rate of growth than broadcasting. However, certain income streams, such as naming rights, food and beverage sales and income from the staging of non-football events, are not available due to the stadium ownership. This is a flip side to Brady’s much heralded ‘deal of the century’ in securing a low rent 99-year lease.

Expenses – Where Is The Money Spent?

The principal, and most high-profile, expenses at a football club are those related to player wages and transfer fees. While wages have increased significantly at West Ham over the years, they rank 9th in the league overall for staff costs (wages plus player amortisation). Unsurprisingly, these are way below the ‘rich’ clubs but they have also fallen further behind Newcastle and Villa as they pursue their Champions League ambitions. In total staff costs represented 91% of revenues in 2023/24.

To avoid confusion, it is worth taking a moment to consider how transfer fees are accounted for in profit and loss statements. Suppose a player is purchased for £50m on a 5-year contract. The £50m cost will be amortised in the accounts over 5 years at £10m per year, not as a lump sum. This is independent of how the transfer fees is actually paid in practise. For example, the whole fee up front or against a schedule of instalments.

Brighton provides an interesting comparison here. While their wage bill is not far behind those at West Ham, amortisation is significantly lower. A reflection of their strategy of unearthing emerging talent at a lower cost than the lazier West Ham obsession with experience and/ or recruiting players recommended by agents.  

With many of the operating expenses at the London Stadium paid for by the stadium owners, other expenses at West Ham are relatively modest. Not owning the stadium possibly also contributes to the club being in the rare position of having no financial debt. They do, however, owe significant amounts in future transfer instalments which we will return to later.

Transfers and Player Amortisation

If there are limited options for West Ham to achieve a significant increase in matchday and commercial revenues – and become less dependent of broadcasting income – then surely, they must pay more attention to generating player trading profits. For reasons best known to the owners, the club has chosen to ignore the model of buying low and selling high pioneered by the likes of Brighton. The policy of recruiting older, already established players and selling later resulted in an average annual player sale profit of just £15.4m in the nine years from 2014-23. A figure that was below the league median in seven of those nine years.

Indeed, it is rare for clubs to achieve operating profits. Most rely heavily on profits from player sales to comply with the Profitability and Sustainability Rules (PSR). West Ham’s poor record on player sales – the direct result of a transfer policy prioritising experienced, older players – has been a consistent drag on the club’s progress.

The reason the sale of Declan Rice was such a massive bonus for West Ham’s accounts is that, as an academy product, he had no ‘book value’. The entire sale proceeds could be shown as pure profit. Just as Rice’s contribution papered over the cracks on the pitch during his last season, his sale may have done the same for the club’s finances. The record profits in 2023/24 were almost entirely down to the one-off sale of a single player.

The financial implications of selling a player who had previously been purchased is not so clear cut. Consider the following example of a player bought two years ago on a five-year contract for £50m.

After the completion of two years, the player has a book value of £30m. If he has been a success and can be sold for £75m then great, a profit of £45m can be shown in the accounts. Conversely (and the more usual West Ham scenario) if the transfer has not worked out and he is sold for less than book value then the negative difference must be recorded as a loss. Thus, selling Gianluca Scamacca and Nikola Vlasic may have brought in some much-needed cash but did not generate any profit, as their transfer fees were aligned with current book values.

PSR and All That

The Athletic recently published a club-by-club table of Premier League PSR positions over the latest three-year period. Although interesting in that it confirmed West Ham did not have an immediate PSR problem (as many suspected), it was also a largely irrelevant rearview mirror exercise given the club’s financial year had already closed on 31 May. Whatever transactions take place this summer will become part of the 2025/26 accounts and factored into the three-year PSR period 2023/24 to 2025/26.

In calculating PSR limits, certain allowable costs (depreciation, woman’s football, youth and community development) are added back in to the profit and loss totals. For West Ham this is estimated at approximately £14m per year. Thus, for PSR purposes, West Ham’s 2023/24 profit would increase to £71m and allow for equivalent losses of up to £170+m in the two subsequent seasons without falling foul of the rules. Beyond that timeframe (once the Rice transfer drops out of the equation), the PSR outlook (assuming it remains) looks bleak unless the club significantly ramps up revenues or increases profits on player sales on a regular basis.  

The caveat to the above is that clubs can only lose £15m of their own moneyacross a three-year PSR period. Anything above that, and up to the £105m threshold, must be guaranteed by owners providing ‘secure funding’. According to The Athletic report, the most recent capital injection at West Ham has expired for the purpose of PSR calculation. If the Board (combined wealth £8 billion) do not address this, future PSR consequences would look very serious indeed.

Where Has All The Cash Flow  Gone?

When David Sullivan presented the 2023/24 accounts he gushed “It fills me with immense pride, as a steward of this illustrious club, to see West Ham United on solid financial ground, with all profits reinvested into our squad, infrastructure, and local community, providing a strong basis for our ongoing progress and long-term objectives”.

If we are to believe that is true, then why are we now hearing noise about the finances being in a mess? Or that players must be sold before signings can be made? And what exactly are the Board’s long-term objectives?

There is clearly a problem with cash flow that is beyond the hysterical headlines on the usual clickbait sites. There is nothing sinister about the club resorting to receivables finance or revolving credit facilities. They are standard business practices which I’m sure other clubs must also use.

A standout statistic from West Ham finances is that they are among the leaders for transfer fees owed, with a staggering £191m outstanding when the 2023/24 accounts were published. The equivalent figures available for selected other clubs are Brighton £104m, Newcastle £160m, Arsenal £268m and Liverpool £128. In part this will reflect the Hammers activity in the transfer market but may also be the result of holding out for extended payment terms – a kicking the can down the road tactic that anecdotally scuppers many a West Ham deal at the last minute.   

And here lies the conundrum. On the face of it, West Ham accounts have shown strong operating cash flows in recent seasons, and the club have successfully cleared all outstanding debts. In a normal business it would be an enviable position; but football is an abnormal business. Clubs are not owned for annual profits but for reasons of prestige, ego, and asset accumulation. In 2007, Forbes valued West Ham at £195m. Last May that had increased to £882. An increase achieved with limited shareholder funding beyond the issue of £125m in shares in 2022/23, much of which was used to reduce debt.

This has left a net funding/ investment in the past 5 years of just £54m, compared to £496m at Villa and £391m at Newcastle. It feels like an act of self-harm if the owners decline to make further investment now both to ease PSR pressures and to assemble a squad capable of competing at the right end of the table. This brings us back to the question of long-term objectives. Does this go any deeper than preserving Premier League status (and hence asset value) as a plodding mid-table team?

 What is apparent is that caution gets the better of ambition in the West Ham boardroom. No-one wants a reckless club owner, but some risks are worth taking where the rewards are high. Sound financial management is fine, but a clubs ultimate success lives or dies on its player and management recruitment. As the overall steward of West Ham’s recruitment, I’m not sure whether Sullivan should be ashamed or embarrassed by his record – probably both! Is there any chance of it ever changing? COYI!

So why was 2024/25 a horror season for West Ham? 

All season Geoff and I have been writing articles with our thoughts on why West Ham’s season has been so poor and so uninspiring, putting forward our theories. But my friend Stefan King, a massive fan of both West Ham and the band Queen, who also writes horror stories, insists that we have got it all wrong. He sent me his most recent short story to read. He certainly has a very vivid imagination. I thanked him for his work of fiction and he sent me a one word reply. “Fiction?” I’ll leave you to make up your own mind.  

“Boleynian Rhapsody – Hammer to Fall” 

A tale of profound dread, psychological turmoil, and an ancient force with an insatiable thirst for pain, all cloaked in claret and blue. 

The 2024/25 season was not just bad; it was horrific; it was apocalyptic. West Ham didn’t merely lose games; they deteriorated; they decayed from the inside out. The rot wasn’t confined to the results; it permeated the walls, the players’ bodies, and the air. 

No one dared to voice it, but something or someone had followed them from the Boleyn Ground. When they demolished the old Boleyn stadium to make way for nearly a thousand dwellings, they believed they were moving forward; progress, the next level, corporate boxes; they would become the best team in the country, in Europe, in the world. But some things, some very ancient things, resent being forgotten. How dare they move! 

Legend has it that the Boleyn witch, Anne Boleyna, had a son. A creature that was born wrong, all teeth and shadow. They imprisoned him in the tunnels beneath the Upton Park pitch, feeding him rats. He was born under a blood moon, a night when the veil between worlds was thinnest. He was a creature of darkness, with eyes that glowed like embers and a voice that could freeze the soul. Anne hid him away, knowing that the world would never accept him. She taught him her secrets, and together, they wove a web of power beneath the Boleyn Ground. Every time the Hammers won, they said it was him—howling beneath the turf, sated by the sacrifice. It was dismissed as East End folklore. 

Anne Boleyna was no ordinary witch. She was born in the 16th century, a time when fear and superstition ruled the East End. Her mother, a healer, was accused of witchcraft and burned at the stake. Anne, then a child, watched in horror and vowed revenge. She grew up learning the dark arts, mastering spells that could bend reality and summon spirits. Her reputation spread, and soon, she was feared and revered in equal measure. She passed it all to her son. 

For a time after the stadium move all was well. Nothing outstanding but it was always going to take time. Then David Moyes had some spectacular results and led them into Europe. Unbelievably a European trophy was secured. But then everything unravelled. The victories ceased, and the nightmares came to the fore. Moyes couldn’t stop the decline, and by the end of 2023-24, he was gone. 

A new head coach arrived—Julen Lopetegui from Spain. By November, every player was plagued by night terrors. One gouged his own thigh with a fork muttering, “I must bleed for the badge.” Others vanished during an away trip to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. One lost his mind. Security footage showed his ghost wandering onto the pitch alone in the dead of night. He was rarely seen in good form again. 

December arrived with a visit to Leicester. A goal down in under two minutes. Another defeat. Some of the travelling West Ham supporters turned on manager Julen Lopetegui, jeering at him towards the end of the game. Home or away it made no difference. The season was turning into a nightmare. 

The year ended with a 5-0 home defeat to Champions-Elect Liverpool. Fans began disappearing before the end of the game. At first, it was those seated in the Trevor Brooking Stand. Then entire rows throughout the stadium. Empty seats, still warm, coats and phones left behind. The official explanation? “Evacuations due to a fire alarm.” But nobody heard an alarm. The footage revealed something else, figures crawling up from the touchline. Pale and long-limbed, wearing kits from the ’60s. Former players. Faces familiar from grainy black-and-white films, but distorted. Skin stretched too tight. Eyes set too deep. Moving with that horrible jerky grace, like puppets at the end of rusty wires. 

Then came the fog. It rolled in one day during training, low and dense, smelling like you wouldn’t believe. It was thick and oppressive, wrapping around the players like a shroud. Once it touched someone, they were never the same. They spoke strangely, moved differently. One player bit a goalpost and laughed and laughed until his jaw unhinged. Another began scratching marks into the dressing room tiles. The fog carried whispers, voices from the past, echoing through the corridors of the London Stadium. It was as if the fog was alive, a force that fed on fear and despair. 

The players’ experiences grew increasingly harrowing. Night after night, they were tormented by visions of the witch and her son. Some players reported seeing shadowy figures lurking in the corners of their rooms, whispering secrets in a language they couldn’t understand. Others woke up with unexplained bruises and scratches, as if they had been in a struggle. The team doctor was baffled, unable to find any medical explanation for their symptoms. 

During training sessions, the players moved like automatons, their eyes vacant and their movements stiff. They spoke in hushed tones, afraid to voice their fears. One player, in a fit of desperation, tried to flee the stadium, only to be found hours later, wandering the streets of Stratford, muttering incoherently about the witch’s curse. Another player, who was once the star striker, refused to step onto the pitch, claiming he could hear the witch’s laughter every time he touched the ball. What chance of him ever scoring any goals again? 

The head coach was found in his office one morning, kneeling within a circle of matchday programmes, that he refused to leave. He had written one phrase over and over on the whiteboard: “She demands the chant. I can’t leave the circle until she hears the chant.” But what chant? He didn’t know the chant.  

It surfaced once, on a social media recording by a fan before the servers mysteriously crashed: “Come on you Irons, bleed for her name, forge us in fire and burn in her flame.” The clip was deleted within minutes. The fan who uploaded it went missing. His flat, newly built above the old Upton Park pitch, was found empty except for a claret and blue scarf tied into a noose and a puddle of water on the floor—still rippling, forever rippling. 

A new head coach arrived. But did things improve? By April, the club was dead in the water. But not relegated. They would fight another day. But what would 2025-26 bring? Fortunately, Ipswich, Leicester, and Southampton were also having nightmares. 

It was as if, for one whole season, West Ham United had never existed. But the London Stadium still stands. You can hear it at night. That chant. Warped and slow, echoing out into the empty Stratford streets and the surrounding Olympic Park. 

Some say if you get too close, you’ll see lights on in the stands at night when the stadium is empty. You’ll hear boots on the turf. A final match being played in the shadows, for no one and everyone. They say the witch watches from the boxes now. Forever smiling and waiting for kick-off. 

The great Queen song “Hammer to Fall” can be heard repeatedly through the PA system. 

But the Hammer never truly falls. 

It just waits to rise again. 

They Think It’s All Over; It is Now – And It’s A Massive Relief for All West Ham Fans!

It’s nose bleeds all round at West Ham as Graham Potter’s side climb to the dizzy heights of 14th place on the closing day of a dreadful season. Miracles are needed in the next 12 weeks if a repeat is to be avoided.

And so, there you have it. A dull, turgid, unimaginative season is finally over to the relief of the many. The very worst of seasons since the last one we had suffered; and further proof of the futility of raised expectations when it comes to supporting West Ham.

The record books will show the 2024/25 had actually outperformed 2022/23 on most of the metrics in the league campaign. But, of course, those painful memories had been swept away by the euphoria of a famous night in Prague. There was no such redemption this time round though, as woeful Premier League fortunes were equally matched by early, limp cup exits.

It would be nice to think the slate could be wiped clean during the summer; allowing next season – which begins in just 12 weeks time – to be approached with a renewed sense of optimism. Sadly, there is little evidence to suggest the Hammers are capable of metamorphosing into next year’s Nottingham Forest. It would take a transfer window of momentous brilliance and a road to Damascus style conversion for the coach if the side is to be transformed into credible top eight material.

It was already known that Graham Potter would finish the season with a worse record than the manager he replaced in January. The final day victory at Ipswich did make the points per game difference marginal in the end (1.11 vs 1.15). And the late strike by Mohammed Kudus edged Potter ahead of Lopetegui on goals scored per game (1.22 vs 1.20). This in addition to the more significant improvement on goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.95). The tiniest crumbs of comfort in the boardroom, perhaps.

The eventual 14th place finish was ultimately unexpected but was fitting given the amount of time West Ham had been marooned there earlier in the season. Lopetegui’s side had, in fact, spent only one week lower than 14th, while yesterday’s last gasp win earned Potter his loftiest position since defeat at Chelsea on February 3.

Long time West Ham fans have been raised with a wary eye on disappointment. Even if it sometimes appears to be hiding, in the back of your mind you know it’s never very far away. A couple of decent league finishes and three years of European adventures are now in the rearview mirror as a distant false dawn; an accidental temporary anomaly rather than the first steps of a new golden age. A glance at the club’s record across all prior 38-game Premier League seasons does not lie; there is an underlying equilibrium that centres on a mediocrity which underperforms the club’s financial standing. While the season just finished was undeniably awful, it is not an obvious outlier and sits as 14th out of 27 for goals scored, and 17th out of 27 for points won.

Adding to the current pain has been that any pretence of serving up entertaining and enterprising football that was once the West Ham trademark has long been lost and forgotten. For too long, the club has resorted to dull, pragmatist managers whose overriding philosophy has been to concede fewer than the opposition, not to outscore them. Although individual approaches may be different, Potter has done nothing to suggest he is an upgrade on Lopetegui, Moyes or Allardyce when it comes to enterprise. Potter’s media representation as a bright, young coach puzzles in the light of his reputation at Brighton and Chelsea for pointless possession and lack of shot creation. Can or will he prove us wrong over time?

The Ipswich game was a largely unremarkable affair punctuated by several well-taken goals. West Ham enjoyed plenty of early possession but (unsurprisingly) made few penalty area entries. Once again, the team selection left us scratching our heads, with the inclusion of just two attack minded players in front of the most workmanlike midfield imaginable. Fortunately, Ipswich contrived to lend a hand by gifting the Hammers the lead just before the break; Jarrod Bowen’s assist setting up James Ward-Prowse for his only goal of the season.

Parity was restored early in the second half when Jean-Clair Todibo (who played all afternoon as if under the influence) couldn’t be bothered to put in a challenge, allowing Broadhead free access to stroke past an exposed Lukasz Fabianski.

The Hammers finally put the match to bed courtesy of fine strikes from Bowen and Kudus. The first, the result of neat interplay between Bowen and Aaron Wan-Bissaka before the skipper blasted home from just outside the area. According to Tony Gale the ball continued to gather pace as it went, despite this being scientifically impossible. You cannae change the laws of physics, Galey! The second arrived when Kudus exchanged passes with a ‘rampaging’ Guido Rodriguez to curl home and put the result beyond doubt. A low key game with low key goal celebrations. No Ward-Prowse golf swing, and no Kudus advertising hoarding pose. I wonder how many of those featuring will still be with us come the end of the summer!

***

I’ve always been of the view that the only statistic than wins games is goal scored. Nevertheless, who doesn’t like a selection of improbable Premier League statistics (harvested from the FBRef site) which show how West Ham players compare in the statistical scheme of things. Here are the categories which feature Hammers in the top ten leader board positions for the season.

Assists: Jarrod Bowen (Joint 10th)
Goals + Assists: Jarrod Bowen (Joint 9th)
Shots on Target: Jarrod Bowen (Joint 8th)
Goals per Shot of Target: Tomas Soucek (Joint 9th)
Goals minus xG: Jarrod Bowen (4th)
Through Balls: Lucas Paqueta (10th)
% of Dribblers Tackled: Max Kilman (1st), Jean-Clair Todibo (7th), Aaron Wan-Bissaka (Joint 9th)
Blocks: Max Kilman (8th)
Interceptions: Aaron Wan-Bissaka (1st)
Clearances: Max Kilman (5th)
Successful Take-Ons: Mohammed Kudus (2nd), Aaron Wan-Bissaka (7th)
Successful Take-On %: Max Kilman (3rd)
Minutes Played: Max Kilman (10th)
Yellow Cards: Lucas Paqueta (Joint 10th)
Aerials Won: Max Kilman (5th), Tomas Soucek (Joint 8th)
% of Aerials Won: Konstantinos Mavropanos (7th), Max Kilman (10th)
Fouls Drawn: Mohammed Kudus (Joint 5th), Lucas Paqueta (7th)
Save Percentage: Lukasz Fabianski (2nd)

The curtain will fall on West Ham’s season with a visit to Portman Road

It was only Nottingham Forest for heaven’s sake! Having said that, I’ve got to give them some credit for the astonishing achievement of qualifying for European football next season. Who would have guessed it? Last season they finished in seventeenth place. This time they have more than doubled their points tally from the last campaign. We could still end up there (17th) if we don’t win at Ipswich and both Manchester United and Tottenham defy the odds to finish their poor domestic seasons and beat Aston Villa and Brighton respectively, both of whom still have something to play for.

Forest could even still qualify for the Champions League, and it will probably be a disappointment, albeit slight, if they don’t after holding one of the qualifying places for so much of the season. Nevertheless, any European qualification is good as we know from a couple of seasons back. How we would love to be there again! A Conference League spot would be a decent consolation though, but with their last game coming up at the City Ground against an inconsistent Chelsea side, they will be confident of making the premier European competition.

Watching last weekend’s game against Forest I didn’t believe that we were ever going to score a goal after the first minute. But our captain, Jarrod Bowen was on the pitch and his wonderful touch and finish five minutes before the ninety were up and all of a sudden Forest looked nervous. West Ham finally came alive. At least there were some better attacking options on the pitch by then compared to the defensive nine we started the game with. With a small amendment to a quote by (in my opinion) the best football writer of all, Brian Glanville, who died recently, until the changes, “our midfielders seemed to wander around the pitch like well-intentioned dinosaurs”.

Eleven minutes was held up on the board but Forest’s time-wasting display with players laying down like sleeping lions, and more weird and pointless VAR checks, meant that it turned out to be another 21 minutes. In truth it should probably have been even more but another game was kicking off shortly and the people at Sky were getting nervous. Despite some promise in those final minutes the only real chance came when Sels pulled off a fine save from Fullkrug’s header.

And what about the officials? Recently the standard in so many games I’ve watched has left a lot to be desired. This game was no exception. I really hate to be critical as it is a massively difficult job. They may well understand the rules but so many of them don’t really seem to understand the game.

Graham Potter suggested it was an even game. Really!? He said we came up a bit short. A bit?! The Premier League Match Centre said that the referee’s call of goal was checked and confirmed by VAR, with Milenkovic in an onside position and Dominguez in an offside position but deemed not to be impacting on play. It took me about 20 seconds at most to see that when the picture was shown on the screen. But why did it take them six minutes? I’m afraid that is just not spectator friendly. In fact it is a disgrace. Was it the late Bill Shankly who once said “if a player is not interfering with play or seeking to gain an advantage then what the hell is he doing on the pitch?” or something like that. But then the offside rule like the handball rule and several others really needs to be looked at further, don’t they?.

The defeat brought the curtain down on a miserable season with spectators at the London Stadium enduring a torrid time with just five wins in nineteen games. We beat Ipswich, Manchester United, Fulham, Leicester and Wolves. Teams currently occupying 19th, 16th, 10th, 18th and 14th places.

Every summer is important in preparation for the season to follow, and this one even more so with mounting unrest surrounding Graham Potter and increasing pressure on the board as frustrations grow among the fanbase, many of whom appear to have serious doubts as to if he is the right man for the job. Four wins in eighteen matches since taking over from Lopetegui doesn’t even match the record of his sacked predecessor and they are statistics that take us back to the days of Avram Grant. He doesn’t seem to be able to turn things around or get the new manager bounce that sometimes happens. We’ll have to see if he can do better with some players of his own choosing.

The slow, lethargic style with lots of short, sideways and backward passes that may pad out the possession statistics is leaving fans bored. Not to mention the fact that we are among the worst team in the league for shots and goals since Potter was appointed. The atmosphere at the London Stadium is flat which doesn’t bode well for season ticket sales ahead of the crucial summer window in which West Ham have made it clear (according to some?) that they have little money to spend without selling players first. Apparently, Sullivan only wanted to give our new boss a six month contract but was persuaded otherwise (with Everton waiting in the wings to give him a longer contract?). If there is any truth in that I wonder what the position would be now? It’s not hard to guess. I’m sure Everton are really pleased with the effect Moyes has had (so far anyway).

So here we are facing an away trip to Portman Road to close the season. Relegated Ipswich are the only team that we have put four goals past, in fact we only managed three once (Fulham). Our opponents will be up for it, hoping to end the season on a high and with a possible chance of moving up one place and the extra (£3 million?) that would bring them to boost their finances for their return to the Championship. We too have the incentive of possibly finishing above Wolves and also remaining above Manchester United and Tottenham, adding more funds to the kitty. But how much enthusiasm is there in the players? Ironically at least two of the departing players, Coufal and Cresswell had decent games against Forest and really looked up for it.

There are likely (and need) to be big changes in personnel in the summer. Two players who may go but I’d like to keep are Guilherme and JWP. In his (very limited) cameos Guilherme has shown to me that he possesses potential and looks like the type of player we need. He is still young I know but why hasn’t he been given a bit more of an opportunity?

Unlike most fans I believe there is a place of JWP in the team. I appreciate some of his limitations, but I would see him in a role similar to a quarterback in American football. His striking of a deadball is an asset, but I believe his inclusion in the team would work if he is supported in midfield and attack by players with pace, (not Soucek, Paqueta, Alvarez, Rodriguez etc). Also, if Soucek is retained for his ability in both penalty areas, then again it would only seem to work for me if he too is supplemented by skilful attacking footballers with pace.

It will be interesting to see if any of our loanees who return, or academy players, can stake a claim for a place in the squad if they are good enough. Apparently, Potter has said he wants to reduce the size of the squad, so I guess that should mean one or two places for these players if they are up to it. Scarles, Casey, Orford, Kelly, Marshall, Earthy, Potts. Perhaps a couple of these? Perhaps others? I’ve no idea but it would be sad if none of them come through wouldn’t it?

My player of the season? No surprise it has to be Wan Bissaka by some distance. What a buy he has turned out to be. Bowen has done well once again too. Nobody else really stands out for me. I’m looking forward to the return of Summerville next season as I believe he has great potential.

So, another summer of big changes, wondering who will leave and who will arrive. Yet again I wonder if we can get it right this time? Who knows?

Who Do You Think You Are Kidding Mr Potter If You Think West Ham Are Done?

With Potter’s ‘competitive’ Hammers tumbling to the eighth defeat of his reign, he is now destined to end the season with a worse record than the derided and sacked Lopetegui. Where on earth do we go from here?

Whatever the outcome of West Ham’s season closer at Ipswich next weekend, Graham Potter will end the season with an inferior points per game record to the sacked manager he replaced. Being unable to raise even this lowest of bars makes a mockery of his claim that the team have become more competitive under his stewardship. How can a football team be more competitive, yet the outcomes be worse? The operation was a success, but the patient died!

One wonders what Potter’s objectives for the season were when he sat down on day one at the Rush Green training ground. Time would, of course, be needed to get to know the squad of players he had inherited; their strengths, their limitations and how they would fare as part of a possession-based team. But after that, what next? What if the players were not suited to his preferred style of keep the ball at the expense of anything else football? What if his mission to become tighter at the back could only be achieved by stifling the attacking threat of your most valuable players? Experience suggests there was no apparent plan for such scenarios. No desire to find an equilibrium between the ‘vision’ and what the resources could deliver. Just carry on repeating what didn’t work, or couldn’t be accomplished, regardless. The pursuit of perfection as the enemy of good.

If a significant proportion of the squad are unlikely to be still at the club come the start of next season anyway, why fixate so stubbornly on converting them to an alien style of play in the interim? And why not use the risk-free time for experimentation and to take a look at the club’s youth?  

The predicament has been no more obvious than in the games played at the London Stadium. The record speaks for itself: two wins and four defeats in nine games with just ten goals scored. Hardly the stuff to keep supporters entertained or on the edge of their seats. Where there have been decent performances (or results) they have all come in away games. The coach has spoken about turning performances into points, but no home fixture springs to mind where the team picked up fewer points than deserved.

It was a rinse and repeat performance for Sunday’s visit of Nottingham Forest. Flattered by the previous week’s success against a disinterested and demotivated Manchester United, Potter elected to field an unchanged starting eleven. He obviously anticipated no downside to pitting the world’s slowest midfield against an opponent famous for the speed and precision of their counterattacks. Oblivious also to the idea that supporters might welcome a display to shout about in the final home game of a dismal season. What has so often been celebrated as a carnival occasion had turned into a wake. Leave them wanting more, isn’t that what they say? Who in their right mind would want more of what the coach has served up so far?

As ever there was an all too brief opening flurry from the Hammers. A lively start that saw a smart save from a Tomas Soucek header and a moment where Vladimir Coufal might have broken his West Ham goal scoring duck. In his post-match comments, Potter said they had tried to be on the front foot, but it was never going to last long with the unambitious lineup he had chosen. True to form the visitors first took control of the game, if not possession, and then took the lead when the folly of playing out from the keeper was mercilessly exploited by the impressive Gibbs-White. It is clear to even the most casual observer that Alphonse Areola is like a deer in the headlights with the ball at his feet, and yet the tactic has persisted.

For a team that scores so few goals, falling behind is a routine fatal error. Not once this season have West Ham recovered from conceding first to win a game. It was a record that never looked like coming to an end this time either. Forest were happy to concede possession, sit deep in the knowledge their opponents lacked the craft and imagination to break through, and wait patiently for the opportunity to score a second.

In a break with tradition, the Hammers passed on the half-time substitution ploy in favour of a quadruple change just before the hour mark. The switch had an immediate impact when the visitors doubled their lead shortly afterwards. Two changes at the break and two on the hour would surely have been less disruptive.

However, with the slowest players removed and the introduction of several with a more progressive mindset, the intensity of the West Ham attacks increased. An intensity fuelled by a growing frustration at the visitor’s blatant and unpunished time-wasting tactics.

This game has to be up there with the worst ever when it comes to the combined efforts of the officiating team. The referee was criminally weak on the time wasting and play acting employed by the visitors – a tactic that descended into embarrassing as the clock ticked down. He had lost control well before the end and the bizarre drop ball sequence that preceded the final whistle. Meanwhile VAR taking six minutes to decide whether an offside player had impacted play or not was a further example of how it has failed to fulfil its original purpose of checking for obvious errors. It has taken on a life of its own to look for things that no-one wanted from it and which had never been an issue in the past. If the authorities want to take action to improve the integrity of the football, then it should look at eliminating the cancer of dark arts that is increasingly creeping into the game (I’m looking at you, Nottingham Forest). Not checking for sub-millimetre offside calls.

We were at least treated to a wonderful Jarrod Bowen goal before the game ended. To repeat what many others have said: where would we be without him? There was also a very respectable cameo from the talented Luis Guilherme in the closing stages. Why haven’t we seen more from him – or from the academy players come to that – given the overall pointlessness of the past dozen games or so? And what the hell happened to Andy Irving who after a promising start at Chelsea has only played one more minute of first team football.

Thankfully, there is only one more game of the campaign to endure. I’m assuming we will start next season with Potter in charge but there is a mountain for him to climb if he is to convince as the right man for the job at West Ham. Even if he and Macaulay do manage to work wonders in the transfer market (and I believe their contribution to Brighton’s success in that area is wildly exaggerated) there are still many questions as to how well the football fits with supporter expectations. The media holds him in high esteem, but I do wonder what that is based on. It’s not from winning games and enterprising football. COYI!

A Tale of Two Cities – London v Nottingham; West Ham v Nottingham Forest, the final home game of a season that many fans would like to forget

Last week I looked for inspiration in writing my article to my good friend Bill Shakespeare. It worked in that we won our first game following eight winless matches. So once again I turn to another good friend, this time Charlie Dickens. I gave him some background to this week’s game and he has written this week’s preview for me. He begins with an extract from a book written by one of his ancestors and then goes on with his thoughts written in a similar style ……

An extract from the first paragraph of Charles Dickens’ A Tale of Two Cities 1859, 

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us”

“Pairs of contrasting words in the opening lines could be interpreted to illustrate the disparities between the fortunes of West Ham and Nottingham Forest as the season draws towards its conclusion. It was the best of times for Nottingham Forest. It was the worst of times at West Ham United. It was a season of light at the City Ground, it was the season of darkness at the London Stadium. It was the spring of hope for Forest aiming for the Champions League, it was the winter of despair for the Hammers who were fortunate that there were three very poor sides who would be relegated to the Championship. In Nottingham they have everything before them, at West Ham we do not know what we have before us.

Our team, West Ham, a team of valiant spirits, find themselves in a state of relative tranquility, with no fresh injuries to report before the anticipated visit of Nottingham Forest. The unfortunate Crysencio Summerville remains sidelined, grappling with the affliction of a hamstring injury, I don’t think we’ll see him again before the new season dawns. The resilient Michail Antonio, too, who is on the mend from a grievous broken leg; will we see him in a claret and blue shirt again? Nottingham Forest, too, face their own trials, with forward Taiwo Awoniyi convalescing after an abdominal surgery, after an unfortunate and potentially life-threatening collision with a goal post last weekend which will undoubtedly raise calls for assistant referees to flag for offside more promptly. The surgery, according to the esteemed head coach Nuno Espirito Santo, has proceeded favourably. The fate of Murillo and Callum Hudson-Odoi, both beset by hamstring woes, hangs in the balance, awaiting assessment before the impending contest.

West Ham, in their storied history, have triumphed in five of their six Premier League home encounters with Nottingham Forest, succumbing only once. Yet, the Reds stand on the precipice of a historic achievement, poised to complete their first league double over the Hammers in forty-one years. The Irons, steadfast and resolute, have remained unbeaten in eight home meetings with Forest in both league and cup, a streak that commenced in the distant February of 1999. The most recent victory, a 2-0 triumph over Manchester United at Old Trafford, has ended a disheartening run of eight winless games, rekindling hope and ambition.

Graham Potter’s side, emboldened by their recent success, aspire to secure consecutive top-flight victories for the first time since February, when they had vanquished Arsenal and Leicester. The Hammers, on the cusp of drawing four top-flight home games in succession for the first time since April 1985, are determined to uphold their proud record of not losing their final home league fixture in any of the past seven campaigns, a period marked by five wins and two draws.

Jarrod Bowen, a player of remarkable prowess, has been directly involved in six goals in his last six Premier League outings, finding the net four times and providing two assists. His ambition to score in four successive league games at the London Stadium would mirror the feat last achieved by Jesse Lingard in April 2021.

Nottingham Forest, on the other hand, have tasted victory only once in their last six Premier League encounters, drawing twice and suffering three defeats. Nevertheless, their prowess on the road is undeniable, having secured nine top-flight away victories this season, second only to the champions, Liverpool, who have won eleven. Forest’s triumph over Burnley at Turf Moor at this juncture last season has set the stage for their quest to win their final away league game in consecutive campaigns for the first time since the seasons of 2006-07 and 2007-08 in League One.

Anthony Elanga, with ten top-flight assists to his name this term, stands on the brink of equalling Bryan Roy’s Premier League club record of eleven assists in a single campaign, a record that has stood since the 1994-95 season. Chris Wood, too, has etched his name in the annals of Forest’s history, becoming only the second player to score twenty Premier League goals for the club in a single campaign, a feat last accomplished by Stan Collymore, who netted twenty-two goals in the 1994-95 season.

The current form guide, a curious and unexpected revelation, shows the East Londoners with the upper hand, possessing six points to Forest’s five. Historical encounters, totalling 121 to date, hark back to an FA Cup game in 1911, and also give a slight edge to the Hammers with 48 wins to 47, with 26 draws.

A victory in this game guarantees that West Ham will finish above both Manchester United and Tottenham, one of whom surprisingly shall play in next season’s Champions League, following their defeats on Friday night. This is but one incentive. Such a triumph would secure us 15th place at the very least in the final table. Depending upon results elsewhere, we could even ascend to 13th place, a position we have only achieved in seven weeks of this dismal season.”

Thanks Charlie. I enjoyed that. I may call upon you again.

Groovin’ On A Sunday Afternoon: West Ham’s Dad’s Army See Off Manchester’s Young Rascals

A welcome win for West Ham against an awful and disinterested Manchester United side in the weekend sunshine. Does it tell us anything we didn’t know? Probably not!

If you had woken suddenly from a season long coma to the news that West Ham had completed the double against the mighty Manchester United – and climbed above the two ‘big six’ Europa Cup finalists in the league table – then you might have been fooled into thinking this must surely be a time of great joy. A reason for good old east-end knees-up.  

Surely, it had to mean Champions League football at the London Stadium next year with a victorious open top bus parade already planned. Only later would it be realised that the game was in fact an inconvenient, end-of-season affair. A match between two of the bottom six where, due to a bizarre alignment of the planets, the hapless Red Devils are still in with a shout of qualifying for the Champions League. Whatever the one-game-at-a-time mutterings from the Manchester United manager, next week’s final is clearly a far greater priority than was the visit of West Ham for Matchweek 36.

At a club where baffling team selections have become as commonplace as a chorus of Bubbles, scientists were able to measure reaction to the announcement of Graham Potter’s starting eleven on the Richter scale. Niclas Fullkrug and Edson Alvarez were once again left on the naughty step, there was not a youth player in sight, an unnecessary full back shuffle, and (as a coup de grace) a recall for the much-maligned Guido Rodriguez.  It was the Argentine’s first start since the home defeat by Crystal Palace in mid-January. Not a player that we had ever expected to see line up in the claret in blue ever again.

Even by West Ham standards it was a very old team. An average age of 29.6 – six players aged over 30 and just one younger than 25. Confidence was low that the Premier League Dad’s Army would have any chance of putting an end to the dismal run of eight games without a win.

What we didn’t know, however, was that agreement had been reached to play the game as a demonstration of walking football. With a level of intensity expected at an OAP’s Sunday morning tai chi lesson on the Common. Ironically, it was ideally suited to many of our players whose undoubted training ground competence is routinely undone when put under pressure by fast pressing opponents. Fortunately, Manchester United did none of that. Either because they lack the players to execute it or were more concerned about picking up injuries in advance of their trip to Bilbao.

It is between amusing and surprising to see the poor value and quality that poses as the present-day Manchester United squad.  Assembled at huge expense it is prima facie evidence of how not to run a football club. It’s possible that some of the younger signings will turn out to be future gems, but overall, you would have to say their transfer policy is even more shoddy than the Hammers. The exception to the rule is Bruno Fernandes who appears to have carried them single handedly over the past four of five seasons. So ineffective were they in attack that it was only after the introduction of Harry Maguire that the threat level was raised in the West Ham defence. I had read an article at the weekend that Hojlund was eager to prove himself at the highest level. It made me wonder whether he had considered a career change to scaffolder.

Predictably, the West Ham goals were scored by Tomas Soucek and Jarrod Bowen. Together, they have notched over a half of their side’s Premier League total this season. I am conflicted about the contribution made by the big Czech. You couldn’t hope for more committed player and, of course he regularly weighs in with important goals from an otherwise impotent midfield. Yet, he is anonymous for long periods allowing the game to pass him by. Is that enough in the modern game where speed of thought and action – press, pass, carry – have set the standards of midfield play?

To be fair, Soucek had a decent game; put in some important blocks and even got involved in the exhibition of one touch passing that the Hammers put on towards the end. But that was the story of the game for other West Ham players too. Given time and space they can look at home at this level. Sadly, it all falls to pieces against quicker, aggressive opponents.

Despite sitting on an apparently comfortable 2-0 lead, it wouldn’t be a West Ham game without a nail-biting finale. In his wisdom, Potter elected to remove Bowen and Mohammed Kudus in a double substitution on 73 minutes with both players looking equally unimpressed with the decision. Removing his only out-ball runners is a tactic that hadn’t worked well for the coach in the past, so he decided to try it once again anyway – just in case. It immediately invited extra pressure as the Hammers found it increasingly difficult to clear their lines. Was it part of Fullkrug’s punishment to abandon him up top without any recognised service or support?

Still a win is a win; and they don’t come along frequently enough to belittle. I am not sure we learned anything new from the experience, although we are now TOP of the bottom six and can go into the remaining two games with a modicum of positivity. The magical 40-point mark has been reached, and if another four can be mustered it will raise Potter’s points-per-game above that of Lopetegui. I suppose that would be progress of sorts!

The opening gambit in the annual player clear out was revealed a few days back with the announcement that Aaron Cresswell, Vladimir Coufal, Lukasz Fabianski, and Danny Ings would be leaving the London Stadium in the summer. The signing of Ings was a monumental blunder for both club and player. Another casualty of not bothering to sign a striker that suits your style of play. While I find it hard to associate millionaire footballers with the concept of being great servants, the other three have each had distinguished careers at the club. Cresswell’s 11 years at West Ham (360+ games, 11 goals) deserve our recognition and the opportunity for his greatest send-off since that night in Frankfurt; Coufal will not now get the chance to equal Tomas Repka’s modern record of the most games played by an outfield player without scoring; and Fab will fall eight short of 100 career Premier League clean sheets (43 at West Ham). We wish them well. COYI!