Last week we studied the form and decided that the odds were generous on a West Ham victory against Watford. So we lumped on. As a lifelong fan I should perhaps have known better. With 35 minutes of the game over we looked on course to at least double our stake of 24 points and be showing a healthy profit. If you had looked on the betting exchanges at around 3.35pm you could have virtually named your odds on a Watford victory and there would have been plenty of opportunity to get in excess of 100-1 in-play.
But as we all know it didn’t happen so we lost 24 points, which became 25 when our accumulator failed miserably with just two correct predictions. So our balance now stands at 75.4 points.
Today I’m going to try a different type of football bet. There are so many bets that you can place on football matches these days, and you can have fun trying out some other variations. One that can keep you interested for much of a game is betting on there being at least x number of goals in the game. For the purposes of this week’s betting I’ve had a look at the odds of there being at least 3 goals in the game in each of the Premier League games this weekend.
If you had to guess which of our four main leagues has provided the most games percentage-wise where three or more goals have been scored which one would you go for? The Premier League is at the top – there have been three or more goals in the game in 21 of this season’s 40 games, putting it ahead of the other leagues (the Championship has had the least).
|
|
1 |
Odds |
|
|
Chelsea v Liverpool |
29 |
4/6 |
|
|
Hull v Arsenal |
22 |
8/11 |
|
|
Leicester v Burnley |
19 |
4/5 |
|
|
Man C v Bournemouth |
23 |
1/2 |
* |
|
WBA v WHU |
19 |
5/4 |
* |
|
Everton v Middlesbrough |
17 |
Evens |
|
|
Watford v Man U |
25 |
5/6 |
* |
|
Palace v Stoke |
19 |
6/5 |
|
|
Southampton v Swansea |
19 |
Evens |
|
|
Spurs v Sunderland |
17 |
4/6 |
|
1- total goals scored in the 8 games involving these clubs (4 each) this season
Odds – Paddy Power odds quoted for over 2.5 goals in the game (i.e. 3 or more)
The table above shows you can get even money or better on four of the ten games. Not surprisingly the bookmaker has done its homework and those four games are generally the ones where the teams have scored the least goals. The exception is the Tottenham game where I guess they are expecting more goals than has been scored so far by Spurs in particular.
The game that really took my eye was the one involving our trip to West Brom, which gives the most generous odds, meaning this is the game expected to produce the least goals. This is not surprising in that West Brom (managed by Pulis) have scored the least goals in the Premier League this season with 2 and have only conceded 3, meaning their four games have only had five goals scored in total. On the other hand there have been 14 goals in our games, although we have only scored five of them.
If you study the West Brom recent games, say the last ten of last season and the first four of this, then there have been three goals or more in just 3 of their 14 games! Conversely if you look at the equivalent for West Ham then there have been 3 or more goals in 13 of our last 14 games (the only exception being the home game v Bournemouth this season). If you look at West Brom v West Ham head to head in the twenty-first century, then 9 of the 18 league games played have had three or more goals in them.
It’s very easy to see why this game has been picked out as the one with the least chance of producing at least three goals, but there are factors (mainly West Ham ones) which indicate that this may be a good bet.
I am therefore staking 16 points on our game at West Brom to produce three or more goals (36). In addition I will stake four points on an accumulator for the games at West Brom, Watford, and Manchester City to each have three or more goals at accumulated odds of 6.19/1 (25.7).
The figures in brackets are the potential winnings. Our total stake is 20 points reducing our balance to 55.4. If the three selected games can each produce three or more goals then we would collect 61.7 points from our single bet plus the accumulator.
What are the chances?
The consensus in the media, social and otherwise, on the current West Ham predicament and the evidence of 4 Premier League games (and an ignominious Europa League exit) is that we are teetering on the brink of the precipice at the edge of the abyss. The vultures are circling and the fat lady is already practising her closing number. The capitulation against Watford was indeed shameful where we not only took our foot off the gas but parked up on the hard shoulder (is that what they call the area around the outside of our pitch?) for a picnic and a refreshing glass of blackcurrant Rabona (I mean Ribena!). The tendency of West Ham to become all passionate against the big boys but fake arousal against the smaller fry is not a new one (remember the final two home games from Upton Park) but it really should not be tolerated from a very highly paid professional team. Nonetheless, a few good performances and wins can easily put the season back on track and there is no better opportunity to start than away to the beleaguered, low-scoring Baggies.
When I can’t sleep at night then instead of counting sheep I pick a West Ham team of players that have surnames that all start with the same letter.
Last weekend saw me extending my lead at the top of the Lawro prediction league to seven points. Both Geoff and Lawro each managed three correct results for a total of three points, whereas I had two correct results plus two matches where I also predicted the correct scores for a total of eight points.
Paul Simon sang in 1975 about 50 Ways to Leave Your Lover. “Slip out the back, Jack”, “make a new plan Stan”, “you don’t need to be coy, Roy, just set yourself free”, “hop on the bus, Gus”, and “drop off the key, Lee” were his fifty ways. More like five to me!
In the first installment of this occasional series, which looks at players who came through from the youth team (or academy) but never quite made it as first team regulars, we featured
Wapping born Ayris was just 17 at the time and was seen as the next generation marauding winger to follow the fleeting footsteps of John Sissons and Harry Redknapp into the first team. His debut was a successful one providing the crosses (or assists in today’s terminology) for a Geoff Hurst hat-trick in a 3-1 victory. Ayris was used sparingly during the remainder of the 1970/71 season making a further 7 starts including in the infamous 4-0 FA Cup defeat at Blackpool where Moore, Greaves, Clyde Best and Brian Dear had been spotted partying into the early hours the night before the game.
The Harris incident may not directly have ended his career but it had a large part to play. At just 5 feet 5 inches and a slender 9 stone he was utilised selectively in subsequent seasons by manager Ron Greenwood who felt the need to protect the young winger from the more agricultural players who inhabited top flight football at the time. Ayris made a further 33 starts over the next 5 seasons before being given a free transfer to non-league Wimbledon in 1977 and drifted out of the game at just 24 years of age.
Meet The New Boss……