The Language of Football – Number 3

A game of two halves or the match of the day?

Language CloudDo you use the word game or match in football terms? Which do you prefer? There are no specific rules for describing a game of football, or a football match. You might use the term game of football but are unlikely to say a match of football. I would usually say “I’m going to the game today”, whereas my wife is more likely to ask “Are you going to the match today?”

Many synonyms have come about to describe a game or match using different terms, many to satisfy the needs of journalists trying to avoid repetition. Game or match are the two most common and can be interchanged, or used to describe most of the scenarios that will arise in this article. Sometimes the word game doesn’t describe a single game, but can refer to football in general terms. A game of football for example can refer to a specific game, the game of football to football as a whole. The beautiful game is a term used to describe football as a whole, it’s never the beautiful match.

Sometimes you may hear the term “he’s been in the game long enough”. This does not describe a specific match, but someone who has been involved in football for a long time. However, a defender given a torrid time by the opposing attacker would know that he’s been in a game; you are less likely to say been in a match. A team that have been totally outplayed may be described as never in the game, but you could use match here.

All kinds of adjectives are used to describe a game/match. Sometimes the word clash is used but only in certain circumstances. The term suggests a more physical game where the teams will be more hyped-up than usual. So, for example, if we are about to play Tottenham then it might be an eagerly-awaited clash, whereas if we are about to face, say, Bournemouth, the word clash is less likely to be used. A derby game is likely to be described as a clash, an old firm game between Rangers and Celtic and the El Clasico between Real Madrid and Barcelona will definitely be clashes. A clash will often be a heavyweight one, or a titanic one, a Clash of the Titans, or a top-of-the-table clash. A fixture clash however is where a team might reach, say, the semi-final of the cup, when there is already a league game scheduled for the day of the semi-final.

Another term used is a fixture. This is often preceded by adjectives such as long-awaited, top-of-the-table, relegation (sometimes called a six-pointer), plum, or mouth-watering. Relegation often precedes the word scrap which suggests the game might be a bit of a battle. Relegation also precedes the word battle to describe teams in the drop-zone playing against each other. Sometimes a game may be an almighty battle. It could be a ding-dong one. Although teams meeting in battle is another phrase for a game/match, a battle is more frequently used to describe players having individual battles all over the field, or midfield battles, or Andy Carroll being involved in an aerial battle with a tall, uncompromising defender. Aerial is another interesting adjective often used to describe an onslaught, a tussle, or a bombardment. Teams facing a side managed by Big Sam have often faced these, although he would of course deny it.

Sometimes a game/match is described as an affair. No, not a sexual liaison between married people who are not married to each other, but often a game that is not a lot of fun. So affairs are often dismal, drab, lifeless, dull, boring, ill-tempered, or physical.

Contest is another alternative and these are often absorbing, fascinating, or gripping. The phrase all over as a contest is often used when one side has a big lead and we may as well go home.

An encounter can also be absorbing, fascinating or gripping, and can additionally be thrilling, boring, or drab. A game can be an end-to-end one with flowing football, teams that are stretched, and gaps appearing in defences. These often provide chances at both ends which often lead to goals. Games with lots of goals at either end are specifically designed for the neutral spectator, but these games are not for the purists who, for one reason or another, like to see good defensive play, and abhor lots of mistakes leading to goals.

My final description of a game/match occurs if say, West Ham are drawn against Accrington Stanley in the Cup. This match can be described as a banana skin for us, although (to keep up the use of fruit) it is a plum draw for the minnows, Accrington Stanley.

West Ham v Watford in Numbers

Know all there is to know about the numbers game.

 

NumbersGeoff Hopkins has written some excellent interesting articles about the use of statistics in football. I’ll add a few numbers of my own in an analysis of the Watford debacle. Like Geoff I’ve made use of the very good whoscored.com website, whilst also checking other statistical databases, newspapers, and the internet, as well as using my brain to recall other bits of data I’ve read or seen or thought of.

I’ll start with “0” or zero. This is the tolerance that the club say they will show to fans deemed to have offended in violence or standing issues within the stadium. This is also the number of times Watford have scored four goals away from home in a Premier League game.

56,974 – yesterday’s attendance at the start of the game. I wonder if the club have read a previous article of mine where I mentioned how co-incidental it is that our attendance is frequently x thousand, 977. Three fewer this time!

25,000 (estimated) – the number still in the stadium when the final whistle blew.

38 – the number of times Watford have found themselves two goals behind in a Premier League game, including this weekend.

37 – the number of times Watford have lost the game after falling two goals behind in a Premier League game.

33 – the number of minutes required to establish a two goal lead. This is also, roughly, the amount of playing time in minutes needed to turn a two goal lead into a two goal deficit.

4 – the number of Watford players that I read we were linked with in the last transfer window – Janmaat, Pereyra, Deeney and Ighalo were all on our “radar” according to one source or another. But like a lot of these rumours – probably just made-up stories to fill column inches. Nonetheless, Pereyra looked some player, and Deeney took his goal splendidly.

4 again – the number of league goals scored by Michail Antonio from inside the penalty area this season (I won’t call it a penalty box as a box is three–dimensional, and the area is not) – more than any other Premier League player

10 – the number of headed goals scored by Michail Antonio since the beginning of last season – more than any other Premier League player – not bad for a “winger” who has played often at right back! Keep him up front Slav! Trust the stats!

11,085 – the number of days since Watford last scored at least four goals away from home in the top division. On the same day (5 May 1986) we were losing 3-1 at Everton in the last game of the momentous season (1985-86) which saw us finish in third place.

“Any number you want to one” – the odds you could have got on a Watford victory if you had gone on the betting exchanges at around 3.35pm on Saturday afternoon.

1 – the number of times Watford have previously beaten us 4-2 at our ground in a league game (on 21 February 1984 – Bobby Barnes and Dave Swindlehurst scored our goals in front of 21,263 at Upton Park).

35,711 – the increase in the attendance between the two times Watford have beaten us 4-2 on our ground (the increase is greater than the “all-seating” Upton Park capacity – well you know what I mean)

West Ham figures first in the following section:

58%-42% – our dominance in possession of the ball in the game

19-13 – our dominance in shots

7-0 – our dominance in shots from set-pieces

12-13 – slight advantage to Watford in shots “in open play”

4-8 – now we’re getting to the more important stuff – Watford had twice as many shots on target as we did. You are very unlikely to score unless you have shots on target. Yes I know it is possible if you want to be pedantic – deflections and open goals.

441-322 total passes; 381-231 completed passes; 86%-72% pass success – so we had more of the ball, and were better at finding a team mate with it, but what these figures don’t tell us is the area of the field where the passes were made! I’d like to see the statistic of successful passes in the final third of the pitch – but we never see this one – it would be a better indicator. In fact our pass success percentage was not bettered by any side in the whole Premier League on Saturday. Hull equalled us on 86%, and Middlesbrough were next on 85%. Neither of those teams won either! So what does it prove?

12-25 tackles; 50%-92% percentage of tackles won – perhaps gives an indication of Watford defensively compared to ourselves?

4-4 corners; 25-13 crosses – our goals came directly from a corner and a cross.

10-15 fouls conceded – we committed fewer than our opponents.

The really important statistic is that we threw away a two goal lead and lost the game 4-2. David Sullivan said he wasn’t going to consider a new contract for Slaven Bilic until he’d proved himself in the second season. Now is the time for him to show us his management capabilities.

This Week in Hammer’s History

A look back at the week 12 – 18 September in Hammer’s History.

This Week Hammers HistoryToday we dust off the covers of the Under The Hammers almanac and take a sneaky look at the week 12 to 18 September in the Hammer’s history.

If in 1964 you were lucky enough to own a 625 line UHF TV then you may have been one of the 20,000 viewers who tuned in to the new BBC2 football highlights programme, Match of the Day. Week 4 of the show on 12 September 1964 featured the game at Upton Park between West Ham and Tottenham which was hailed by presenter Kenneth Wolstenholme and summariser Wally Barnes as the most exciting game shown to date. A Johnny Byrne hat-trick (he also had a penalty saved) saw the Hammers secure a 3-2 victory with Jimmy Greaves netting two for the opposition.

A video of the second half can be seen below. West Ham were leading 1-0 at the break.

Also on 12 September, but over 40 years later in 2005, there was another hat-trick this time for Marlon Harewood as newly promoted West Ham demolished Aston Villa 4-0 in a Yossi Benayoun inspired display in the Monday night match.

Another game that caught my eye was a 3-3 draw with Leicester on 13 September 1975 where, and I hope I am remembering this correctly, we came back from 3-0 down to earn a draw and maintain an unbeaten start to the season. We ended the day in second spot in the old First Division. We were also top of the league in November but ended the season in 18th position.

September also sees the early rounds of the League Cup and a fair share of those potential banana skins. You might think that beating a lower league side over two legs would not be a problem yet we still managed to get knocked out by Northampton Town in 1998 losing the away leg 2-0 on 15 September. A year earlier we had also lost an away leg to Huddersfield but managed to turn that one around in the return game.

This week’s featured game is the European Cup Winner’s Cup First Round First Leg away to Castilla (aka Real Madrid Reserves) at the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium on 17 September 1980. The match is mainly remembered for the crowd trouble inside the stadium with over 50 travelling supporters being evicted from the ground by Spanish police and one fan dying after being hit by a bus outside the ground. There were also counter claims of extreme provocation.

The aftermath saw the crowd scenes described as a 哲ight of Shame・and led to UEFA investigation and predictions that West Ham would be thrown out of the competition. As it tuned out UEFA originally ruled that the return leg would have to played at least 300 km from Upton Park but on appeal revised the decision to have the game played behind closed doors at the Boleyn.

For the game itself, David Cross headed home a Brooking cross to put West Ham a goal up in a game that they were largely controlling. However, Castilla pulled a goal back in the 64th minute and then scored two more before the end to run out 3-1 victors. Prior to this game West Ham had gone six matches without conceding a goal and so it was very disappointing that the last two goals were both the result of poor back passes.

Parkes, Stewart, Lampard, Bonds, Martin, Devonshire (Brush), Morgan (Barnes), Goddard, Cross, Brooking, Pike

Notable Hammer Birthdays this week:

13 September:   Pat Holland (66)
16 September:   Sam Byram (23)
17 September:   Billy Bonds (70)
18 September:   Brian Dear (73)

West Ham 2 v 4 Watford

Groundhog Day? Is there some unexplained phenomenon at work in our second home game of the season?

Embed from Getty Images

The second home league game of the season. We are playing against a team who are one of the favourites for relegation, and who are already in the bottom three at this early stage of the season. We have already been eliminated from the Europa League by a very average Romanian team. And what do we do? We concede four goals at home with one of our worst defensive performances you can imagine in the top flight. Yes, the defence imploded (that’s a word frequently used for anything that collapses inwardly in a violent fashion, that breaks down or falls apart from within, or undergoes a catastrophic failure). Who can we blame? Let’s study social media and see what everyone is saying.

Now as you read this you think I’m writing about our performance against Watford. But I’m not. I’m referring to last season. The game I’m alluding to is the Bournemouth one in August 2015. You’d think that yesterday was February 2nd. In North America this is a national holiday, the day when the groundhog is said to come out of his hole at the end of his hibernation period. If he sees his shadow that means the sun is shining, and tradition suggests that six more weeks of winter weather is expected. This is also translated into a modern definition where Groundhog Day is a situation in which a series of unwelcome or tedious events appear to be recurring in exactly the same way. E.g. the second home league game of the season!

I can go back further if you want me to. Let’s look back at the season before the Bournemouth game. In our second home league game of 2014-15 we played Southampton. We had already lost the opening game (1-0 to Tottenham), but in this game if I remember correctly we took an early lead through Mark Noble (a long range deflected shot?) and then the defence imploded in the second half and we lost the game 3-1.

Want further evidence of the modern Groundhog Day second game of the season theory? Ok, let’s look at the season before the one I’ve just referred to. In 2013-14 on the last day of August we played our second home league game of that particular season at home to Stoke. As I recall it was a fairly tedious game (Groundhog Day theory again, games against Stoke are frequently tedious events occurring regularly). The game was 0-0 and almost over when Stoke were awarded a free kick just outside our box. Up stepped Jermaine Pennant, if I recall correctly, and beat Jaaskelainen from the free kick, and we lost the game 1-0. And this was the first of yet another Groundhog Day phenomenon, a series of unwelcome or tedious events started to recur in exactly the same way, this time it was our Finnish keeper letting in goals scored directly from a free kick. In the next home game he did it twice with both goals coming from Baines as Everton beat us 3-2. It was the beginning of his downfall.

We are all looking for reasons, so why did we lose 4-2 at home to Watford yesterday. Ignoring the Groundhog Day theory, I can think of a few.

  1. We were playing some great stuff in the first 40 minutes or so, and with a two goal lead we thought we had the game won. So we indulged ourselves a little with a series of tricks, which offended Watford somewhat (as confirmed after the game by Troy Deeney) and helped to spur them on with a “we’ll show them” attitude.
  2. Our back four and goalkeeper all had a poor game at the same time. I think I can excuse Masuaku from this, but Byram and Reid in particular were guilty of backing off much too far when they should have been closer to their players, you all saw what Ginge did, and Adrian had one of those games where I reckon he will be disappointed that he didn’t save a couple of the goals that we conceded.
  3. We played without a defensive midfielder. Nordtveit or preferably Obiang (in my opinion) would have made a big difference. Noble and Kouyate are both neither defensive or attacking midfielders. They are midfield midfielders if you get my drift. And both had very average games.
  4. Our attacking foursome of Antonio, Payet, Lanzini, and Zaza will cause opposing defences a lot of problems this season. With the exception of Antonio, the others were clearly not match fit and faded somewhat in the second half.
  5. We underestimated Watford who were much better (certainly in an attacking sense) than we thought.

But I am wrong though. Because according to social media I read the key reasons for our defeat were, in no particular order; the stadium, moving to a new stadium, not playing the game at “fortress” Upton Park where Watford would have been intimidated (just as Bournemouth were eh?), the size of the pitch, the standing issue, poor stewarding, the board, Karren Brady daring to stand up, in-stadium violence, and David Gold’s 80th birthday.

 

5 Things We Learned From The Watford Defeat

A frustrating day as we snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

5 Things WHUEarly Days & Late Fitness

These days any anger at a poor West Ham performance is fleeting; disappointment lingers a little longer whereas the glow of rip-roaring victory can keep me sustained through to the following Thursday. So far, this year it has been mainly disappointment (except on Twitter which has seen blistering rage) but we must remember that the season is young and that quirky results can occur all over the place at this stage. That is not to say there are not problems to address and weaknesses to resolve. Of these problems the most basic appears to be an issue with fitness levels. While some of the deficiencies could be put down to players coming back from injury (and the Euros) this obscures what appears to be an otherwise poor preparation for the new season; the pointless visit to North America and the halfhearted approach to the Europa League which certainly hasn’t seen us hit the ground running. In each of our league games this season we have been second best in terms of fitness and it is difficult to understand how there can be any excuse for this.

We have Improved the Squad but not the Team

There were plenty of arrivals at West Ham during the transfer window with only one senior first team player leaving in the shape of James Tomkins. Yesterday’s starting eleven only included two of the new boys (I am excluding Lanzini who is technically a new signing). Of the two, one (Masuaku) probably wouldn’t have been playing (or even at the club) had there not been the injury to Aaron Cresswell. Last season our problem was conceding goals rather than scoring them (which we did well enough provided that Payet was playing). The defensive side of the squad has not been improved and this includes introducing an effective defensive midfielder which I believe has been a significant gap in the squad fro some time. As we saw against Watford we are vulnerable when players run from midfield areas at us. I guess that is why Havard Nordtveit was signed and, on paper, an experienced international and Bundesliga player should be the perfect fit. So far though he has not impressed. The other assorted new midfield players don’t look to be a significant upgrade (or any upgrade at all) on what we already had. It would be foolish to write anyone off after a few games but some rapid improvement would be very welcome. For now, it seems like we have a deeper (rather than better) squad; ironically capable of coping with a competition that we have already been eliminated from.

Mark Noble, The Elephant in the Room

Wholehearted and committed players, especially if the are local, are very likely to become fans favourites at West Ham. It is part of the family/ community feel that, even now, surrounds the club. For many of us, there are far too few home grown players in and and around the first team. This is where the dilemma of “what do we want from our club?” comes in. Is it success or sentiment? Mark Noble ticks all the boxes for the romantic; from Canning Town and West Ham through and through. He has been a great servant (albeit a well payed one) to the club but I see him in the Steve Potts envelope rather than the Trevor Brooking or Billy Bonds one. His commitment is not matched by the necessary speed of thought or movement to be a regular at the heart of a team with ambitions of top 6 and beyond. I can understand why people love him but don’t believe he offers enough guile at the highest level particularly when his form drops as it has now. I see James Collins in a similar vein. If you want someone battling every aerial challenge and throwing his body in the way as a last gasp attempt to stop a goal bound shot then Ginge is your man. But, he makes too many mistakes, is vulnerable to runners and has terrible distribution. Angelo Ogbonna is streets ahead in terms of quality and would have been mightily upset at being overlooked for Ginge.

Dimitri Payet, I think we do understand…

For a long period during the 1970’s West Ham relied almost entirely on Trevor Brooking for any attacking endeavour. It was stop Brooking and you stopped West Ham; until Alan Devonshire came along. Now there is an over reliance on Dimitri Payet. He is a tremendous player and, of course, any team would miss him but we cannot expect him to carry the rest of the team through the season. Contributing tow assists for the goals against Watford, including the superb Rabona, he had a lively start but as he tired then so the attacking threat faded. The defensive implosion rightly grabbed the headlines but we need to be asking more questions in attack than leaving it all to Dimitri. We have an abundance of midfield parts and the coaching staff need to find a way of assembling them in a way that creates a beautiful, practical and efficient unit. Our inability to see off the teams we should beat will be a major problem if we are unlikely to repeat the heroics (and points haul) from the better teams.

Getting the first defeat out the way

A lot of teams would be thinking of coming to the London Stadium and being the first away team to win there in the league. Just like we remember being the last team to win at Highbury and the first to win at The Emirates. Well now that we have got that that defeat out the way early we can now set off on a barnstorming run of invincibility. So there!

I Wouldn’t Bet On It 7

Today’s Bets Will Mostly be on the West Ham Game.

Fancy A Bet

Our last accumulator bet had three successful components, so although the “acca” did not come in, our three winning single bets were:

1 point on each of the following:

Tranmere to beat Guiseley @1/3 (1.3)

Forest Green to beat Southport @4/11 (1.4)

Lincoln to beat Gateshead @10/11 (1.9)

 This brought our cumulative total to 100.4 points, a fraction above where we started.

Today I intend to be a little more adventurous, whilst at the same time having a bit of fun, and extra interest when watching our game against Watford. So today’s bets are:

 18 points on West Ham to beat Watford @5/6 (33)

1 point on West Ham to win and both teams to score @3/1 (4)

1 point on West Ham to win the game 3-1 @14/1 (15)

1 point on West Ham to win the game 3-1 and Zaza to score the first goal @50/1 (51)

1 point on West Ham to score 3 or more goals @16/5 (4.2)

1 point on West Ham to win and Noble to score anytime @ 7/1 (8)

1 point on Zaza to score the first goal @11/2 (6.5)

That will give us a few things to follow when watching the game. If West Ham fail to win the game then we are down by 24 points. If we do win the game then we are guaranteed to be up on the day, irrespective of the details of the victory. Our best bet is if West Ham win the game 3-1, Zaza scores the first, and Noble scores anytime. That would give us a return of 121.7 points on our stake of 24 points.

Remember, Noble scored twice against Watford last season in a 3-1 victory, and Watford, like ourselves have scored in each of the three games played this season. So I am looking for a repeat of last season.

To finish off I’ll try a five game Premier League accumulator at odds of 43.85/1. So I’ll stake 1 point on an accumulator bet based on victories this weekend for Arsenal, Bournemouth, Middlesbrough and West Ham, and the Manchester derby to finish in a draw. If all 5 happen then our return is 44.85; if just one is unsuccessful then we get our point back; if we get 2 or more wrong then we lose.

Incidentally, Paddy Power have Sakho as 9/2 favourite to score the first goal in the match. Have they got some inside information on our team? That’s one ridiculous bet I won’t be making.

We began the weekend on 100.4 points and we have staked 25 points in total. Whatever happens it’s a bit of fun, but I’ll be massively disappointed if we don’t win the game, and hence improve our balance.

Matchday: West Ham v Watford

What can we expect as the Hammers take on the Hornets with a returning Dimitri Payet.

West Ham WatfordThe early season international break, transfer dealings extending past the early games and players returning late due to the Euros and injuries give today’s game the feel of another new beginning;  not just for West Ham but also for other clubs including today’s visitors, Watford.

Going in to our game against the Hornets last April there was a lot of publicity about how few penalties had been awarded to West Ham compared with other teams at the top end of the table.  Watford, with Premier League safety assured, fielded a weakened side due to their approaching FA Cup semi-final appearance with Crystal Palace.  Anti-grappling referee, Mike Dean, duly obliged the critics by awarding the Hammers two penalties; both ably converted by Mark Noble in a largely comfortable 3-1 victory.  A late Deeney penalty for Watford was saved by Adrian.

“With the injuries it was tough. Now hopefully a few of them are back. It’s not a new start for us but with the players who are back I am very optimistic.”

– Slaven Bilic

For Watford, defying the pundits to secure a second season in the Premier League while reaching a cup semi-final was not enough for the difficult to please owners who replaced Spanish (Hugh Laurie lookalike) manager Quique Flores in the summer by itinerant Italian coach Walter Mazzarri.  Mazzarri has since embarked on a thorough overhaul of his squad which has seen them pick up just a single point so far this season.

Head to Head

West Ham have won 23 of 37 League and Cup encounters with Watford since the first senior meeting in 1978.  At Home, the Hammers have won 13 out of 18 losing just 3 times, 2 of which a month apart in early 2007 under Alan Curbishley.  The full record is:

P W D L F A Sequence
Home 18 13 2 3 19 16 WWLLDW
Away 19 10 4 5 25 22 DWDLWL
37 23 6 8 44 38

Team News

According to Physio Room the injury list is at an all time low with just Carroll (due back 17 Sep), Ayew (Nov 27), Cresswell (Nov 26) and Sakho (Oct 1) still unavailable.  All the signs are that Dimitri Payet will make his first start of the season and that we will see the striking debut of Simone Zaza up front.  It will be interesting to see how the remainder of the midfield is set up and whether Manuel Lanzini also gets a start or whether Havard Nordtveit returns as a more defensive option despite failing to impress so far.  I suspect Lanzini will be on the bench, along with Sofiane Feghouli, for this one.

“We can say that from this week the job that I perform can be judged. I like to work with a group that I choose myself, and I’m very happy with this one.”

– Walter Mazzarri

Slaven Bilic may also prefer to bring in Alvaro Arbeloa (assuming he is deemed to be match fit) at right back but personally I believe Sam Byram has done enough to keep his place and would be unlucky to miss out.

Watford have no injury problems.  Much of last season’s heroics were founded on the goals of Odion Ighalo and Troy Deeney but neither have scored this term (yet!).  Deeney is a fine professional but looked off the pace when I watched Watford lose to Arsenal recently.  The Hornets certainly improved after the break in that game after the introduction of new signings Isaac Success (great name) and Roberto Pereyra, both of whom looked to carry a threat.  On the other hand; Kaboul is always worth a goal to the opposition; former Hammer Behrami good for a yellow card and defenders Cathcart and Britos sound like they belong in old TV sitcoms.

Here is my predicted line up in a 2-1 victory:

Team v Watford

Man in the Middle

Today’s referee is Martin Atkinson from West Yorkshire.  Atkinson officiated 3 West Ham games last season; away victories at Arsenal and Bournemouth and the home draw with West Bromwich Albion.  Atkinson is known for his reluctance to brandish red cards and award penalties.

The Lawro Challenge: Week 4

Where we attempt to show Lawro how predictions should really be done.

Lawro Crystal BallI am currently living in Asia and, at just a shade under 6 foot, happen to be rather taller than most of the local population.  This is just as well, for at the moment, I am unable to look anybody straight in the eye.  The reason for this discomfort is that it seems I am worse at predicting the results of Premier League matches than even Lawro.

However, fresh from warm weather training during the international break I am determined to claw back some of the disadvantage between myself and the early pacemakers.  This week’s naval-gazings are shown below and see Lawro depart from his usual cautious tradition by actually predicting a team to score more than two goals.  In the circumstances, I am quietly confident that my redoubled efforts will see me far better placed following this current round of matches.

   Rich    Geoff    Lawro
Cumulative Points     28     22     26
Saturday
Man United v Man City     1-1     1-0     1-0
Arsenal v Southampton     2-1     2-0     3-0
Bournemouth v WBA     1-0     1-1     1-1
Burnley v Hull     2-2     1-0     2-1
Middlesbro v Palace     2-1     2-2     0-2
Stoke v Tottenham     1-1     1-2     1-1
West Ham v Watford     3-1     2-1     2-0
Liverpool v Leicester     2-1     1-1     2-1
Sunday
Swansea v Chelsea     1-2     0-2     0-2
Sunderland v Everton     1-1     1-2     1-1

* Our scoring system is one point for a correct results plus two bonus points for the correct score.

West Ham v Watford Preview

Slaven’s Selection Dilemma?

Embed from Getty Images

If we are really serious about mixing it with the big boys in the Premier League, and at least matching our seventh place finish last season, then this is a game we really should be winning. Of course no games are that simple to win in the top flight; we have to make sure that we don’t believe that we simply have to turn up to be sure of winning (as per Astra Giurgiu for example), but this should be considered one of the easier ones.

At the time of writing this preview I have no idea how many of the players on our lengthy injury list are ready to return, but I am assuming that the number available has increased somewhat. One thing I do know is that the manager is going to have quite a problem trying to keep all of the squad happy when the majority have returned to fitness. It’s always described as a nice problem to have, and that is true, but how is he going to fit them all in?

We now seem to have a squad where we have at least two quality players vying for every position and that is healthy. We know we have two very capable keepers, and following the last day of the transfer window, two right backs, Byram and Arbeloa, which should finally end the need to put one of the most potent attackers in the Premier League, Antonio, in a position that he very clearly was not comfortable in. Masuaku has slotted in well at left back and Cresswell should have a fight for his place. At centre back we have Reid, Ogbonna, Collins and Oxford. I think the manager believes that the first two are his favourite pairing but I’m not so sure that they play well together. Personally I’d like to see Oxford given more chances; I’m convinced that he is going to be even better than Ferdinand.

We have one of Nordtveit and Obiang in the defensive midfielder position (I prefer the latter, but I don’t think the manager does), Noble and Kouyate (almost guaranteed picks) slightly in front, and that leaves just three more spaces for attacking players to fill if he stays with the 4-1-2-2-1 formation. And what a choice we have to fill those three places. Antonio, Feghouli, Tore, Lanzini, Payet, Ayew, Zaza, Carroll, Fletcher, Calleri. Ten into three doesn’t fit comfortably! And to think I read that some people weren’t comfortable that we let Valencia go! And of course we still have Sakho at the club. Paddy Power has him at 9-2 favourite to score the first goal in the Watford game! Do they know something we don’t? Or are they just totally out of date?

We have to remember that it was the results against “lesser” sides that let us down last season, and we have to put that right.

And one player I haven’t mentioned yet is our young Swiss signing Edimilson Fernandes (sounds Brazilian but is Swiss). Despite his age he has played 66 games in the Sion first team, including eight matches in last season’s Europa League where Sion finished second in their group to Liverpool, and only lost narrowly 4-3 to Braga of Portugal in the round of 32. Braga reached the quarter final. He therefore has much more recent European experience than most of our players! I would liken him most in style and position to Kouyate. I think we have a real prospect here, but like Oxford, and other promising youngsters not even mentioned above, I wonder if they will ever get the chance to break through.

Our opponents Watford are already sitting in the drop zone, albeit after just three games, and relatively difficult ones at that. They have lost at home to both Arsenal and Chelsea (1-3 and 1-2) and drawn 1-1 at Southampton. Notably, they have scored in each game played, and were unlucky to lose to a late goal against Chelsea when many believe that the scorer, Costa, shouldn’t have been on the field. Where have I heard that one before? They will be desperate to record their first win of the season and not get embroiled in the relegation dogfight so early. Of course if they beat us they will go ahead of us. However I am confident that we will finally get our season really underway with a good performance and win the game 3-1. This would take us up to six points from four games played which would match last year’s opening.

The fixtures running up to the next international break (yes only four league games until we break again!) are ones that will begin to define whether or not our season can match the success of the last one. Three home games (Watford, Southampton, Middlesbrough) and a visit to West Brom does not constitute the toughest run of fixtures that we will have. If we really mean business then I’d like to see 12 points (or at the very least 9 or 10). Anything less than that will not really be good enough to push towards a top eight place. We have to remember that it was the results against “lesser” sides that let us down last season, and we have to put that right.

More Damned Statistics

Studies have shown that accurate numbers aren’t any more useful that the ones you make up!

stats

For a while as a young boy I collected London bus numbers; not route numbers but the fleet number that was painted next to the driver’s cab. It was the budget version of train spotting because you didn’t need to buy a platform ticket. I would carefully write the numbers down in a small notebook but I didn’t stick at it very long before realising the whole exercise was a complete waste of time.

Nowadays any millennial geek fascinated by collecting and recording pointless information can ‘monetise’ their proclivity through gainful employment with an organisation such as Opta, the sport’s data specialists. Football, like most sports, is now awash with data that provides a minute by minute analysis of every action and incident so that at any time we can know how far Mark Noble has run today. My assertion, however, is that while the resulting statistics might be interesting they are nothing more and there is no cause and effect between the data presented and the actual outcome of a game i.e. that the stats are basically meaningless. I have written about this previously and undertook to keep a watchful eye as the season progresses to see if I could be proved wrong.

For the purposes of my study I am using the data presented on the Whoscored website, which despite my scepticism over the usefulness of the stats is an excellent resource. The Whoscored data is, I understand, sourced from Opta and fed real-time to a large number of media companies . For each game, the website provides a match report showing summary details for possession, passes completed, shots on goal, aerial duels won, tackles made and dribbles won. I am making an assumption here that having selected these categories the folks at Whoscored consider them to be the most pertinent to the outcome of a game.

Of the 30 Premier League matches played to date there have been 22 which have had a positive outcome (with 8 drawn games). Of these, the winning team had the advantage in possession, passes completed, shots and dribbles won while the losing side more often came out on top for aerial duels won and tackles made. In only 1 of 30 games (Burnley v Swansea) did the winning side dominate every category while there was also 1 game (Palace v WBA) where the losing side was on top across the board.

So are there any conclusions that we can make? Should managers tell their players that losing aerial duels and tackles is the best way to win the game? Or is it obvious that more shots on goal increase the chance of winning? Or that if you are forced to defend it is likely that you will need to make more tackles?

There was a school of thought last year that conceding possession bore some relation to winning the game; probably because it was a prevalent feature of Leicester’s season (and our own to some extent). This has not been reflected in the games so far this season although I am still not convinced as to how possession is actually measured; the only time I have seen it explained (a few years back) it was suggested that possession is, in fact, derived from passes completed. That in all 30 games the team with most possession also completed most passes may confirm this.

Maybe the only purpose for the stats is the fun of collecting them in a similar vein to the bus numbers and I am over-thinking them.  But I don’t believe that is how they are used by TV producers and pundits who present them as if they define the game. For now it remains case unproven as far as I am concerned but I will keep on tracking developments.