Under The Hammers

Half Year Report Part 1

The dreaded half year report is issued before heading off for the Christmas break.

Although it may not be strictly half way through the season yet we are keeping with tradition by issuing the half year report cards before breaking up for the festivities. This will allow the players to go home and think long and hard about their performances while we sit back and crack open a bottle of Emva Cream or Warninks Advocaat.

The first half is published today and part two tomorrow.

Subject	Remarks	Grade
Michail Antonio	Michail has done well to become leading goal-scorer despite being asked to play in almost every outfield position – sometimes in the same match. A playing style based on energy, pace and power, often mistakenly described as raw, he has shown tremendous commitment and adaptability. It is not his fault he is not a specialist right back and that, worryingly, the manager thought that was his best position.	A
Andre Ayew	The club’s injury curse caused Andre to miss a large part of term. Having taken the record transfer mantle from fellow invalid Andy Carroll he has yet to complete a full game for the team. In his brief appearances he has largely been lethargic and laboured with just occasional bright flashes of what he might possess. Looks far from value for money for the time being and will be off to the Africa Cup of Nations next month.	D+
Andy Carroll	Andy’s attendance has again been poor this term only just showing up in time for the Christmas party which has now been postponed. Alleged to be unplayable due to his strength in the air this has yet to be demonstrated over a sustained period of time. Aerial strength is not matched by ability on the ground and his deployment as a lone striker, with poor service, invariable leads to one-dimensional attacking play.	C
Sam Byram	Another with a bad attendance record we have yet to be convinced that Sam is the answer to our long held right back problem. Early promise has been interrupted by a series of injuries including the strange self-inflicted one that he picked up early in the game against Middlesbrough. There are differences of opinion as to whether he is a full-back or a wing-back which can hopefully be confirmed in the new year.	C-
James Collins	James tries his best and is a popular squad member. Always shows lots of effort and determination but lacks some of the basic technical skills and prone to occasional ‘ricket’. Known for his brave last ditch blocks and tackles which, ironically, are often of his own making. There is nothing as final and definitive as a James Collins clearance. Has been a useful emergency squad player but we should now have better, younger alternatives.	C+
Aaron Cresswell	Aaron missed the early part of term due to injury and his welcome return coincided with a brief uptick in form and resulted in an international call-up. Recently his conversion to wing back in the favoured 3-at-the-back formation has seemed to confuse him and his link up play with Payet, which was once a major threat, has now been nullified. Contributed his most error strewn performance for some time in the recent match against Hull/	B-
Adrian	Starting the season as the clear Number 1 and on the fringes of his national side, Adrian has had a fraught first half of the year. A competent keeper both in the air and at shot stopping he has been side-tracked by trying to develop himself as a flamboyant goal-keeping character. Not as good at ball control and dribbling as he thinks some poor goals conceded through lack of concentration and his mad dash out of goal to gift an equaliser to Stoke have led to him losing his place.	C
Sofiane Feghouli	The capture of Sofiane against stiff competition was billed as something of a coup and there was early promise despite the disappointment of the Europa League campaign. Although injuries haven’t helped the over-riding impression is of a winger who is unable to cross the ball or avoid the first defender. Perhaps there is better to come but there are few encouraging signs.	D+
Edmilson Fernandes	The diamond in the rough of the summer transfer dealings Edmilson always gives the impression of a very assured, controlled and intelligent footballer. Has performed well wherever he has been asked to play although an attacking role plays more to his strengths. May need to work on the physical side of his game to continue to develop in the Premier League frenzy.	B
Ashley Fletcher	Ashley has shown some good touches in his handful of start and various substitute appearances. Possibly not yet equipped physically to play a lone striker role his effectiveness has been hampered by the lack of organisation or cohesiveness within the team. Has looked a little scared and bemused at times but looks to have potential if used properly.	C
Cheikhou Kouyate	Cheikhou brings a powerful and athletic presence to the team and will be missed when to sets off for the African Cup of Nations. Started the season in midfield but has recently played as one of 3 centre backs. He offers strength and pace to the back line but his strong runs have been missed in midfield. Overall is more effective in midfield but should bring his defensive discipline with him and look to improve his final ball.	B+

Down with the Christmas decorations?

We look at whether the West Ham reputation of coming down with the Xmas decorations is fact or myth.

Christmas Decorations

I first went to Upton Park in the 1958-59 season. That means that this is my 59^th season of actively supporting the team. Of the 58 completed seasons, 49 have been spent in the top flight of English football, and just 9 in the second tier. I have seen us relegated five times and then promoted back five times.

We’ve always had a reputation for coming down with the Christmas decorations. So I thought I’d conduct some research to ascertain whether this is a fact or a myth. Looking at those 49 seasons at the top table I found that on 22 occasions we finished the season in a lower position than we held on Christmas Day. And 22 times we actually finished up in a higher position at the end than we were at Christmas. Five times we ended up in exactly the same position. So in reality, on average the second half of the season has been equally as good as the first.

It is true that in the 1960s and 1980s the trend was to fall in the league table after Christmas more often than not. But since 1993-94, our first season in the newly formed Premier League, we have been in the top flight for 20 seasons, and in that time we have only finished the season in a lower position than we were at Christmas on three occasions. In 1993-94 we dropped from 11^th to 13^th, in 2000-01 we fell from 10^th to 15^th, and the biggest fall was in 2014-15 when in Big Sam’s final season we went from 4^th at Christmas to finish 12^th. In every other year we have either retained or improved our position in the second half. So apart from Big Sam’s swansong, we have never fallen to a lower position at the end of the season than we held at Christmas in our last 12 seasons in the top flight.

Our Christmas Day position this year is 13^th. Our average finishing position in the 49 seasons in the top division in my lifetime is 13^th. Of course 3^rd was our best performance of all in 1985-86. That season we were 3^rd at Christmas too. And on the five occasions when we were relegated, our positions on Christmas Day were 21, 20, 18, 20, 20. So if history (especially recent history) is anything to go by, what is there to worry about?

Of course we have played indifferently in quite a few games this season. But our five 1-0 victories, and four draws, leave us on 19 points from 17 games. It has not been a good season, especially compared to the last one. Our manager and the players still have a lot of work to do to ensure that we keep our distance from the relegation places, and hopefully push on upwards towards the top half of the table. We must stop throwing away points when we are leading in games too. The 12 points we have dropped from leading positions, would have seen us in 5^th place in the table if we had held on to the lead in those matches.

It’s not all doom and gloom as some articles in the media would suggest. It hasn’t been the best, but trust me we’ve been here before. We’ve never been relegated from this position in the table at Christmas, and it won’t happen this season either. We are only five points behind seventh place in the table, which is where we finished last season. I’m looking for us to move upwards after Christmas, just as we have done in most seasons in the twenty-first century. The generally held belief that we come down with the Christmas decorations is a false one.

West Ham 1 v 0 Hull

A review of the Hull game – A star is born.

Embed from Getty Images

A couple of days ago Geoff Hopkins wrote an excellent article with five observations in respect of robbing Hull of three points at the weekend. It is hard to disagree with anything that he said. During the game tweeted that he believed the post was our man of the match, and his idea was followed up on some post-match polls with thousands of respondents who agreed with his selection.

Whenever a player is known by one name you know he is a star. Pele, Maradonna, and now Post. Post, whose real name is Woody Woodwork, is related to a number of famous people such as Rod Laver, Rod Marsh, Postman Pat, Woody (of Toy Story fame) and Roy Wood, whose Christmas song is played throughout December. He is also closely related to Barry Bar of Crossbar Challenge fame.

Reports that Post was seen staggering out of an East End nightclub at 4am on Sunday morning were way off the mark according to his agent, Posty McPost Face. Posty confirmed that Post is an upright character who spent the evening at home with his wife, Wendy Woodwork, after a meal at a Chigwell restaurant with close friends.

Post has always been known as a hard man at the back, and his agent has lined him up with several lucrative endorsement opportunities, the biggest one being the front for a new Viagra campaign. Sales of West Ham home shirts with “POST” on the back have been the biggest seller in the club shop in the lead up to Christmas.

Despite Post coming to our rescue three times, and the general agreement that Hull deserved to win the game, or most certainly didn’t deserve to lose, it is interesting to note some of the statistics for the game. Now as Geoff and I have written on some occasions in the past, football statistics can be interesting but in many respects are meaningless when considering the outcome of a game.

Nevertheless I will set out below some of the key statistics that are always collected at games. Those people who believe in the statistics will find it hard to believe that Hull were unlucky losers.

Possession – West Ham 56%, Hull 44%
Shots – West Ham 19, Hull 16
Shots on Target – West Ham 6, Hull 5
Corners – West Ham 10, Hull 6

None of this really means anything except that we had the ball more than they did, we shot at goal more than they did, we had more shots on target than they did, and forced more corners than they did. I know that the general view is that we were fortunate (very fortunate!), but the fact of the matter is we scored a goal and they didn’t. And when it comes down to allocation of points that means we got three and they got zero.

Of course if we keep playing like this, then as Geoff pointed out, we are unlikely to win many more games. But, just for the moment I will take our seven points from three distinctly average performances in the past week. Things will need to improve drastically, but I can remember many occasions in our history when we have deserved to win games but haven’t. It’s good for the boot to be on the other foot for a change.

This Week in Hammer’s History

Festive spirit, the season of goodwill and games on Christmas Day in the week 19 – 25 December in Hammer’s History.

This Week Hammers History In the mid 1960’s West Ham had featured in two successive cup finals by winning the FA European Cup Winners Cups. On 21 December 1965 they were set firmly on course for a third consecutive final appearance thanks to a 5-2 League Cup semi-final first leg victory against Cardiff at Upton Park. Goals from Bovington, Brabrook, Byrne, Hurst and Sissons effectively wrapped up the tie which was sealed just over a month later with a 5-1 second leg win at Ninian Park.

In the deep mid-winter of 1979 West Ham had scheduled their pre-Christmas fixture against Cambridge United for a Friday night to avoid clashing with the last Saturday, last minute shopping frenzy (it was not possible to buy West Ham underwear for your wife in the club shop at the time). This is often cited as one of the most memorable Boleyn experiences by many of the 11,000 or so hardy souls (of which I was one) who battled along on that bitterly cold December evening. The match started in light snow and after 45 minutes West Ham were a goal down and it was time for a hot, half-time cup of Bovril. During the interval Bill Remfry played Mike Oldfield’s ‘In Dulchi Jubilo’ and encouraged the crowd to dance just to keep warm; an invitation taken to extreme by one supporter who streaked onto the pitch. In the second half the snow turned into a full-on blizzard but goals from Stewart, Pearson and Neighbour turned the game around to give the Hammers a 3-1 victory.

Parkes, Stewart, Lampard, Bonds, Martin, Devonshire, Allen, Pearson, Cross (Pike), Brooking, Neighbour

The season of goodwill has frequently paired West Ham with close neighbours Tottenham Hotspur in the run up to Christmas and they were also the opponents on West Ham’s last ever Christmas Day fixture.

Defeat at White Hart Lane on Christmas Eve 1960 was offset by victories both home and away in the following years. In 1967 West Ham won 2-1 at Upton Park on 23 December (Bonds, Dear) and on 20 December 1969 they were also victorious by a 2-0 scoreline at White Hart Lane (Peters, Hurst). The points were shared in a thrilling topsy-turvy 4-4 away draw on 22 December 1962. West Ham were behind 2-0 and 3-2 before leading 4-3 and conceding an injury time leveller. West Ham’s goals were shared between Peters, Kirkup, Boyce and Scott and the match was also notable for an unexpected hat-trick by Dave Mackay for Spurs.

The Christmas Day fixture was in 1958 at the Boleyn Ground in front of 26,178 spectators. After a goalless first half West Ham, inspired by Phil Woosnam, raced into a 2 – 0 lead with goals from John Dick and Vic Keeble; both of whom worked like Trojans according to the news report at the time. Woosnam was then badly crocked by Spurs defender Maurice Norman and with no substitutes at the time spent the remainder of the game limping along the left wing. This allowed Tottenham to pull one back but the Hammers held on to win 2-1. In the return fixture at White Hart Lane on the following day (Boxing Day) West Ham completed the double with a resounding 4-1 victory with goals from Bond, Keeble, Dick and Own Goal.

Gregory, Bond, Cantwell, Malcolm, Brown, Smith, Grice, Woosnam, Keeble, Dick, Musgrove

Andy Smillie replaced the injured Woosnam for the Boxing Day fixture otherwise it was the same team.

Notable Birthdays

21 December          Paul Heffer                         69
21 December          Cheikhou Kouyate           27
22 December          Phil Woosnam                   d. 2013
22 December          Bill Green                            66
24 December          Diafro Sakho                      27

5 Observations from West Ham robbing Hull

Police want to question a gang dressed in claret and blue seen making off with 3 points at the London Stadium.

More Points But………

There are no circumstances when I am not happy with a win. I want West Ham to win every game that they plan in; even if that meant that Spurs won the league or Millwall avoided relegation. Likewise I would never want my team to lose in order to oust an unpopular or under-performing manager. The six points earned gained against Burnley and Hull are a relief but the nature of the victories suggest that this might simply be a temporary respite; the underlying problems that afflict the team continue to exist. We cannot just rely on ‘Ask the Referee’ lifelines to keep us in the Premier League millionaires club. The penalties aside we hardly created any worthwhile scoring opportunities; at least not at our own end although we did our best to tee a couple up for Hull. It wasn’t so much a case of Hull being better than us, rather that we were worse than them. These two victories only serve to paper over the cracks in the wall as it is apparent that the wall is in a structure without a roof and with unsafe foundations. Some might say that wins will breed confidence but what I see is not a team short of confidence but of ideas. We may well scrape through courtesy of there being three poorer sides but our own team is definitely not heading in the right direction under the current regime.

Defining the Team Shape

a·mor·phous

adjective

without a clearly defined shape or form.
vague; ill-organised; unclassifiable.
(of a group of people or an organisation) lacking a clear structure or focus.

Groundhog Day Report

There is a great deal of repetition in these weekly match observations much like that recurring nightmare where you are unable to perform even the most simple task. Compared to nearly every other team in the Premier League we look less organised, less fit and our abilities for passing and movement is decidedly second best. The favoured 3 at the back formation (at least the way that it is implemented) does not suit our players. It stifles the attacking threat of Antonio and Cresswell and creates congested central areas. There is not enough movement throughout the team; no-one is creating space and the man with the ball has few options but to go sideways and backwards. Players are waiting for the ball to arrive at their feet before deciding their next move rather than anticipating or making runs. The result is ponderous build-up that gives plenty of time for the opposition to re-group. How many positions can Antonio be expected to play in one game? Why was Carroll alternating between left wing and centre midfield? Why when we changed to 4 at the back didn’t Ayew play behind Carroll with Antonio out wide? Why have we abandoned the Antonio long throw as an occasional tactic; at least to mix things up? Why was Obiang withdrawn when he had been our most likely midfield player?

Last season saw some remarkable successes against top clubs, who we were able to hit on the break, while we often struggled against teams who were more defensive minded. Our better performances continue to be against the better sides but without the same level of success. Our struggles and lack of creativity in breaking down those teams that we are meant to dominate remains a huge problem.

We’ve Got/ Had Payet

It is possible to rely too much on one player. The same happened for large parts of Trevor Brooking’s career at West Ham (until Dev came along to share the load) when opponents always knew what West Ham would attempt to do and were able to counter it. Almost inevitably when our players now have the ball they will look to eventually feed it to Payet, which he will invariably receive in a static position wide on the left. Bilic believes (he said so during the Euros), and maybe Dimitri does too, that wide left is his best position as it provides him with the angles necessary to maximise his effectiveness. I can see some sense in that when your team carries threats right across the park but not when it is your only weapon; in those circumstances the opposition can easily crowd him out. Payet himself, for whatever reason, is not the same player as last year. One can only speculate whether his head has been turned by the attention of other clubs, whether the intensity of the Premier League has got too much for him or whether opposing defenders are secretly wearing red kryptonite shorts. It is unrealistic to expect him to carry the team and unnecessary to burden him with too much defensive duty. It will surprise me if he is still at the club come February.

Post Match Analysis

I became so disillusioned by our performance this weekend that I took to Twitter during the game (something I rarely do as I am usually 100% focused on the game). After about 70 minutes I tweeted that the Goalpost had been our man of the match so it was satisfying to see that others felt the same way at the end of the game.

For a change I thought I would give my own player ratings as I believe that usually these are far too generous. My criteria is that a ‘6’ means that a player was average and did the job expected.

Randolph 6, Kouyate 7, Reid 6, Ogbonna 5, Antonio 6, Lanzini 5 (Ayew 4), Obiang 6 (Fernandes 6), Payet 5, Noble 4, Cresswell 3, Carroll 5

I Wouldn’t Bet On It 22

Remaining cautious after another nice little earner.

Fancy A Bet

Success on Wednesday evening yet again with the following bet:

12 points on West Ham to win at 4/6 (20).

Our balance was down to 120 points after placing the bet, but our win of 20 points increases our total to 140.

West Ham are doing well for us, but I am still not going to be tempted to stake too big.

So the main bet for Saturday is 13 points on West Ham to win the game @8/13 (21)

With two fun bets:

1 point on West Ham to win 2-1 and Andy Carroll to score the first goal @ 35/1 (36)
1 point on West Ham to win 3-1 and Andy Carroll to score the first goal @ 55/1 (56)

Total stake = 15 points; cumulative balance 125.

Potential returns if correct in brackets.

What are the chances?

Matchday: West Ham host Hull Tigers

Sexy football, six on the bounce and the ghost of Pottsy.

West Ham Hull If a restaurant told you that they weren’t too bothered about the food that they served up as all they were interested in was getting their hygiene licence renewed would you still be tempted to go along? I don’t think I would and so was surprised to hear so many at the club extolling the win ugly approach after the Burnley game and telling us that there would be no ‘sexy’ football for the time being. Possibly the comments were taken out of context as we seem to be a favourite target in the press for negative stories right now, but even so as a message to give it is an injudicious one. I am not even sure that is ‘sexy’ that we are looking for but neither is it grandma’s bloomers; most fans would, I believe, happily settle for organisation, passion, commitment, effort and decisiveness. Press home the advantage don’t retreat and attempt to defend it.

A former corpulent, ear-cupping manager once stated that league position was directly related to the amount of money that was available to a football club. For once, there was probably a lot of truth in what he said and, as such, should see us in a regular battle for 7^th or 8^th place with Everton. Anything less then the club and management are relatively under-performing. Floundering outside the top 10 must certainly be regarded as failure.

That would be brilliant of course. We spoke about this couple of games in the period when we played against Spurs, Manchester United, Arsenal and Liverpool. It was an extremely difficult schedule. That period came and we started with three points and we have a really good chance (on Saturday). Nothing can give you confidence better than victories.

– Slaven Bilic on the chance of back to back victories

Still onwards and upwards and today we have an opportunity to create a little daylight between the basement sides by seeing off the visit of Hull City Tigers. Hull’s owners seem to be doing everything in their power to get the club relegated and hopefully we can contribute to the cause. Six points from their first two games followed by six from the next fourteen is less than impressive. They have lost six away games on the bounce and have failed to score in any of the last four. What could possibly go wrong today?

Head to Head

West Ham have a 100% record in the last 6 home matches against Hull scoring 19 goals in the process and conceding just 3. The first game in that sequence was, of course, the 7-1 thrashing in October 1990 which included Steve Potts solitary Hammer’s goal in 463 appearances. Maybe even Simone Zaza could tuck one away today!

	P	W	D	L	F	A	Sequence
Home	21	11	8	2	44	18	WWWWWW
Away	21	4	10	7	22	30	DLWDLD
	42	15	19	9	66	48

Team News

One major disappointment this season is that we don’t appear to have a definite style of play; the approach to any game gives the impression of being unplanned and arbitrary.

The website whoscored.com sums up our style as follows:

Very Strong: Attacking set pieces
Strong: Shooting from direct free kicks
Strong: Defending set pieces
Very Weak: Defending against through ball attacks
Very Weak: Defending against attacks down the wings
Very Weak: Protecting the lead
Weak: Avoiding individual errors
Weak: Defending against long shots

Add to this that a greater percentage of our goals have come from set pieces than any other team in the Premier League and it does not paint a rosy picture of sexy football at any time during the season.

We go there full of life. We’re on the front foot. Yes we’ve lost games but my players are putting everything into their chance in the Premier League. We just need to get a bit lucky if we can.

– Mike Phelan

With no changes in the injury situation it is probable that we will see the same starting XI that featured in midweek meaning perseverance with the flaky 3 at the back and seeking out Andy’s head up front. Despite my misgivings I expect that we will finally record consecutive wins at the London Stadium.

There was good news about Reece Oxford signing a new contract and let’s hope that he gets some game time once he has recovered from injury.

The Man in the Middle

Lee Mason from Lancashire makes his first acquaintance with the Hammers this year but was in charge of two previous Hull defeats (including the 6-1 loss at Bournemouth). Last term he was in charge of our away draw to Swansea and the win at West Brom. In 9 games this season Mason has issued 33 Yellow and 1 Red card.

The Lawro Challenge – Week 17

The challenge to out-predict the long time BBC pundit moves towards the halfway point.

Lawro Crystal Ball Sixteen rounds of games in the Premier League have now been completed. That means we have now predicted the results of 160 matches. In Week 16, Rich scored 8 points, Geoff 13 points, and Lawro 10 points. This was Geoff’s best performance of the season so far, and could be the beginning of a rise to challenge for the lead. Or it could be just a one-off. Rich got 8 results correct but he could not get any correct scores. Lawro got six correct results, two of which were also the correct score. Geoff got seven correct results, three of which were also the correct score. In this challenge we award one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction is spot on.

We now march on to week 17. Just two weeks after this one to the halfway stage.

	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Total after 15 weeks	130	81	114
Score in week 16	8	13	10
Total after 16 weeks	138	94	124

Predictions – Week 17
	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
SATURDAY
Palace v Chelsea	0-2	0-2	1-1
Middlesbrough v Swansea	2-1	1-1	2-0
Stoke v Leicester	2-1	2-2	1-2
Sunderland v Watford	3-2	2-1	2-1
West Ham v Hull	3-1	2-0	2-0
West Brom v Man United	1-1	1-1	0-2
SUNDAY
Bournemouth v Southampton	2-1	2-2	2-0
Man City v Arsenal	2-2	2-1	1-1
Tottenham v Burnley	3-0	4-0	2-0
MONDAY
Everton v Liverpool	1-2	2-1	1-1

West Ham 1 v 0 Burnley

A review of the Burnley game and a look forward to Hull

Embed from Getty Images

Once again the poetry was successful as we scraped home by a single goal against Burnley on Wednesday evening. We started the game reasonably well and were just about good value for the single goal half-time lead. But Burnley came back strongly in the second half, and but for some woeful finishing, plus some fine goalkeeping from Randolph, they could well have got a (deserved?) point from the game. I’m not quite sure what happened in the second half, but we sat back rather than going for a second goal which would have made the game more comfortable. A 2-0 lead and we would have been in a strong position. Although one pundit on TV recently said that a 2-0 lead is the most dangerous lead to have. Poppycock. It is far better to be leading by two goals rather than one. A 1-0 lead, or being one goal ahead is far more dangerous in my eyes.

Who were our best performers on the night? Always subjective, but for me Randolph, Reid, Obiang and Carroll stood out. I’d like to think we would be beating teams like Burnley with greater ease, but with our current relatively poor form, and lack of confidence, I guess we should just be satisfied with three points and move on to the next game. Two seasons ago when we last played Burnley at home we won the game 1-0 with a Mark Noble penalty. This time he failed to score from the spot, but the rebound fell kindly and he had an easy task to slot the ball home.

So that is now one game down of the four easier (on paper) fixtures to take us to the end of 2016, that everyone has been going on about, and we now have a four point cushion ahead of the relegation places. Just a few days ago we were in the bottom three. The visit of Hull gives us the opportunity to stretch the cushion further.

Hull began the season with two victories, against champions Leicester, and Swansea, meaning they were joint top with six points after just two games. However, in the subsequent 14 games they have won only once (v Southampton), and drawn three times, v Burnley, West Brom, and Palace. Their 12 points leaves them in the relegation zone, and they have the worst goal difference in the whole of the Premier League by a long way (-21). They have scored 14 goals and conceded 35. This is mainly as a result of some heavy defeats, 3-0 to both Sunderland and Tottenham (on Wednesday), 4-1 to Arsenal, 5-1 to Liverpool, and 6-1 at Bournemouth being the biggest.

We are even stronger favourites to win the game than we were against Burnley, but that was a struggle. How will we fare this time? It’s hard to know, but perhaps our first win in a few games will give us the confidence to progress, and possibly play with a bit less fear than seemed to be the case in midweek, especially in the second half, when we began to get a bit jittery. I’m confident that we can continue to push on now, and despite our less than convincing win on Wednesday, the optimist in me predicts a 3-1 victory.

What are the chances?

5 Observations from West Ham v Burnley

Welcome points from a largely forgettable encounter against Burnley.

A Win is Just a Win

At the end of the day it is 3 points earned. When we look back on the ‘lost’ 2016/17 season in years to come it will be recorded as a match won during a period where we rose from relegation possibles to mid-table obscurity. Just as the Noble strike will be recorded as a goal scored rather than a penalty missed, the manner of the victory in a forgettable game will be erased from the memory of even those who attended. There was no mass booing and ear-cupping this time around to trigger future memories and indifferent refereeing and an aggrieved losing manager are far too common to resonate past the next few matches. Four points in the last two games has given Slaven Bilic a welcome boost in the quest for 20 points by the end of the year and a chance of continued employment.

Closing Out Matches in a Game of Two Halves

Apparently West Ham have lost 12 points from winning positions this season which, had we not, would have had us riding high in 6th place in the Premier League table. In the post-match interviews Bilic was bemoaning the ability of the team to close out games and, for me, this raises the question of what his own role and influence in these circumstances? One wonders what his instructions were at half time and to what degree the players failed to execute them. There were a few home games last season where we looked on fire in the first half but turned into a damp squib in the second. When you have been comfortably on top (but only have a slender lead to show for it) it is rarely a good plan to surrender the initiative and invite the opposition to attack. There is far too much caution shown in these types of home fixtures for my liking.

Keeping Possession

West Ham are very bad at keeping possession of the ball. This is not the same topic as whether there is any relationship between amount of possession and winning a game. It is well known that when Leicester won the Premier League last season they recorded less overall possession than the opposition in many games. But when they got the ball they moved it quickly and incisively. When they didn’t have the ball they defended as a team and were prepared to let their opponents play around in harmless areas. West Ham’s problem is that once in possession they so frequently give the ball away cheaply. There are two key elements that result in effective passing; good pass execution (speed and accuracy) and range of options available for the player with the ball. As a rule we are slow to exploit and create space and when there are no options the ball goes backwards to keeper or defender who lumps it forward in desperation. In almost all the games I have seen this season we have been second best at passing and moving over the course of a game.

You’re Shaking My Confidence Daily

Much is made of confidence in football so I guess it must be a big deal. A run of defeats or playing in a new stadium can dent a team’s confidence; a point at Liverpool can boost it but failure to hold on to a lead can damage it again. We hear that such a player is a confidence player and just needs a goal to fire him in to action. I have to disclose a touch of scepticism here although I will be delighted if an ‘ugly’ win over Burnley can help to ‘kick-start’ the season, as they say. These are highly paid players who are meant to represent the very top of their profession; are they really so collectively fragile? Could you explain away your own lack of performance at work as a lack of confidence? To admit to lower motivation and fitness levels, compared to most opponents, would be more honest and believable. If confidence really is an issue then it is something for the coaching staff to address; not some an unmanageable external factor in the hands of the footballing gods.

Big Man Andy Carroll

I am pleased to see Andy Carroll back to fitness (crosses fingers, buys lucky heather, finds rabbits foot, avoids ladders and path crossing black cats). When Zaza has set the bar so low then anything is an improvement as far as our striking problem is concerned but Carroll is a massive upgrade. Bilic says he is a big fan of Carroll and considers that he is great in the air and on the ground. Difficult to argue with the first part of the assessment but the second is something of a stretch or, at least, unproven. He does provide a physical presence and will always be a danger at crosses and set pieces but he is unlikely to contribute much in slick passing breakaways or intricate penalty box interplay. The danger is that his strength in the air becomes our one and only tactic (other than trying to win a free kick) and although he can be effective in the right setup I don’t believe that is as a lone striker. To be effective he needs someone alongside to feed off the knock-downs. Unfortunately our midfield is too weak to release someone to play as a second striker.