Category: Transfers

West Ham Monday Briefing: Friendly Fire, Striker Search and South Americans

The summer internationals come to and end just as West Ham prepare for their very first friendly under the leadership of Julen Lopetegui. Meanwhile the Hammer’s search for a striker continues.

Ferencvaros Friendly Fire

The culmination of a marathon day of football saw the conclusion of both the Euro 2024 and Copa America 2024 finals. Spanish flair saw them run out deserved winners against a plucky but passive England, while Argentina’s greater depth earned extra time victory over an unlucky but exhausted Colombia. Now we are able to fully focus once again on the deluge of transfer chatter for the upcoming domestic football season.

It’s now less than five weeks to the big kick-off as clubs await the return of their international stars and jostle for position to bring new players in through the doors, and farm the old ones out. In what had been promoted as a busy transfer window at West Ham has yet to get out of second gear despite the huge overhaul needed to rebuild the squad. Now they prepare for tonight’s opening friendly against Ferencvaros in Austria.

The Hungarian champions are one of teams I recall from my youth competing in the European Cup. A time when it was a proper knock-out competition rather than the money-making circus it has become today. Along with the likes of Dukla Prague and Red Star Belgrade they featured regularly in repeated Subbuteo simulations.

Early season friendlies such as this are little more than a chance to stretch the legs, and will feature only a handful of next season’s first team squad. Potentially there will be a first glimpse of Max Kilman and Luis Guilherme in a Hammer’s shirt, plus an opportunity for several youth players to showcase their abilities. It may also provide clues on the future of Flynn Downes and whether he has a future at the club following his shameful shunning by the Scottish manager. In the scheme of things, Julen Lopetegui will be learning more about the character of the players on the training ground than in matches like these. Kick-off is at 3 pm BST.    

Transfer Chatter Update

It’s been another quiet week on the transfer rumour front with only six new names added to the West Ham target list. The list now totals 117 players and with rumour resources becoming stretched, speculation has resorted to stories that West Ham are rekindling interest in those named earlier in the window. There are many of them to go around. The major rekindling of the week has been Steven Bergwijn who is a big “No” from me, simply because of his past life in N17.

The noisiest rumours in the past seven days have surrounded Juventus centre back Federico Gatti – reported to be the target of a host of clubs – and the ongoing two-horse right back race between Kyle Walker-Peters and Aaron Wan-Bissaka. If that is the extent of our choice, then I would take Wan-Bissaka every time for his far superior defensive attributes.

There was also a first sighting in this window of a player issuing a “come and get me” plea to the Hammers. In this case it is Jean-Clair Todibo of Nice who has a hankering for London’s east-end. The defining factor for who ends up as Kilman’s central defensive partner(s) will, no doubt, be determined by the ultimate size of the budget. After all, we have yet to see any movement for that most expensive and elusive of characters, the striker.

Ullo Jhon! Gotta A New Striker

The persistent striker link of the last few weeks has been Jhon Duran from Aston Villa. The Colombian is supposedly something of a hothead who is unhappy with living in the shadow of Harry Kane’s England deputy, Ollie Watkins.

Still only 20 years old, Duran is an exciting prospect but with limited top level experience. He was in the Colombian squad at Copa America but spent the entire tournament on the bench. It feels like a big risk to put all your trust in an untested striker although, thankfully, the people responsible for making decisions know far more than me. The same applies to David Datro Fofana from Chelsea who looked very sharp when playing on-loan for Burnley against the Hammers last March. Presumably he would be happier to play as second fiddle to a more experienced striker than Duran would. It seems everyone should have a Fofana in their squad these days – like it was trendy to have a Dembele a few years back, and a Cisse before that.

The Ivan Toney situation is one to keep an eye on as the number of potential suitors steadily fades away. In the last year of his contract, Brentford will be keen to cash in – especially as they signed Igor Thiago from Club Brugge as a replacement in January – but will be aware that only a small number of clubs will be able to come close to their valuation. With West Ham preferring initial low-ball offers, any deal has to be many weeks away. He would still be my first choice though.

The search for a striker promises to have and extended run up until the close of the window. Some of the names mentioned are exciting, others fill me with dread – nailed on inductees into the West Ham striker hall of shame. Please let it not be Kelechi Iheanacho.

Paqueta And Other South Americans

The future of Lucas Paqueta remains up in the air. And will stay there until uncertainty is lifted on the charges made against him by the English Football Association. This may yet take many months. I struggle to see any benefit for West Ham in sending him out on loan or selling him at a knock-down price to one of the clubs in his native homeland. The only logical conclusion is that he will be a part of Lopetegui’s squad for as long as it takes for the investigation to conclude.

The boys from Brazil were hugely disappointing in the Copa America. Surprising when there is so much focus on their young talent that their performances were so workmanlike. Paqueta was one of many in the Brazil side who struggled to impress as they increasingly resorted to long balls during their quarter final elimination by Uruguay. He looked a far cry from the player that Manchesetr City were allegedly prepared to pay £85 million for.

Elsewhere, in the tournament several of the Colombian players caught the eye. The other Jhon linked with a move to West Ham, Jhon Arias, was a regular starter throughout the competition. Not as reported a winger, but part of a midfield three. His game was more about working hard than flair and did not impress as a potential Premier League player.

The Colombian who did stand out for me was Richard Rios who currently plays in Brazil for Palmeiras. He is a central midfielder who looks good in transition, loves a dribble and possesses a goal threat.

Our old friend Enner Valencia (now 34 years old) was captaining Ecuador who were elimintaed on penalties to Argentina in the semi-final. Sent of in the first group game, he missed a penalty in normal time against Argentina in a game that Ecuador were very unfortunate to lose.

West Ham Monday Briefing: Value Added Max, Forward Thinking and Right Back Where We Started

Kilman signs as Lopetegui and Steidten present exciting ambitions for making a big noise at the London Stadium. Reasons to celebrate or proceed with caution?

Julen, Julen, Julen, Julen, please don’t sign him just because you can

With six weeks to go to the big kick-off, West Ham have finally signed a player likely to feature as a starter in the curtain raiser against Aston Villa on August 17. The announcement of Max Kilman’s arrival confirming that Jolen Lopetegui had secured his primary defensive target.

A change of leadership is often the catalyst for optimism and last week’s press conference by Lopetegui and Tim Steidten swept a breath of fresh air through the corridors and stairwells of the London Stadium. Listening to the pair speak produced a positive and energetic vibe that must surely permeate throughout the club over the coming months. If only West Ham had the technology which allowed us to hear the questions from the journalists as well as the answers.

Lopetegui’s statement that he intended to approach every game in the belief that his team can winn was especially encouraging. Supporters are well aware that it will not always come off but the approach is music to our ears after many seasons of insecurity and respecting the point. There is a real feeling that the playing side of the club id finally in good hands and with a sound structure. I am confident that having taken on board the wisdom of the pundits, that my wishes are now fully compliant with appropriate health and safety guidelines.

Lopetegui has also spoken about the club’s recruitment philosophy of finding players and improving them with coaching. It makes eminent sense and along with developing players from the youth system is the most sensible strategy for a club like ours in the contemporary world of FFP and PSR. The approach is not necessarily reflected in the names being thrown around in the transfer gossip columns (the latest count has grown to 111 names) which continue to major on big name, high price tag targets. The difficulty is that reinforcements are badly needed and time is slipping away. The pace of signings has to increase as well as remaing shrewd. Let’s not get sidetracked by free agents just because they are available.

Congratulations, You Have Just Met the DCF

With all the new financial rules and regulations associated with football the saloon bar supporter needs to be as expert about amortisation as they do about tactics: “I do like the way Guardiola deploys inverted full backs but not so keen on his prefernce for real option pricing in valuing intangible assets.”  It’s a whole new ball game of smoke and mirrors.

There were a range of opinions on whether the Kilman fee was good value or not. He is clearly a fine player and was a known target for the coach – which must be a bonus. As a supporter, the size of the fee is only really relevant in terms of how much remains to spend to fill the many remaining gaps in the squad. The estimated net spend for this window to date now stands at £36 million. So, what is left in the war chest for signing another five or six players, assuming additional funds will also be available from the sale of Nayef Aguerd and Kurt Zouma? Anywhere between £10 m and £100 m perhaps.

A few eyebrows were also raised about the seven year contract awarded to Kilman. This was not an attempt at the scam used by Chelsea to write off transfer fees players over a lengthy time period – that practice was banned a while back. Player value can only be written down over the length of a contract up to a maximum of five years. More probable is that it is a way around any wage structure in place at West Ham. If we assume Kilman will be paid close to £60k per week – he was allegedly on £50k at Wolves – the deal will cost the club (from an accounting perspective) £11 m for 5 years plus £3 m for an additional two years after that – £61 million in total. There is a faint whiff of string up problems in the future.

Right Back to Basics

If the likelihood of a transfer taking place is proportional to the number of times it is repeated, then the next signing will be Kyle Walker-Peters from Southampton. Much of the rationale is that Flynn Downes may be going in the other direction in what is commonly touted as a swap deal.

Last week the full back pursuit was being presented as a choice between Walker-Peters and Aaron Wan-Bissaka. It seemed odd that if a set of defined performance criteria were being analysed by a data expert that it would come up with those two options – unless the criteria were: must have a double-barrelled name and be able to also play on the left in an emergency. Wan-Bissaka is one of the stronger defensive full backs in the league but does not offer much going forward. While Walker-Peters is mediocre as defender but very competent when in possession. I suppose it depends what system is being played and what the main attributes of the full back need to be. Personally, I worry about how effective small full backs like Walker-Peters can be in the modern game where the trend (i.e. what Pep is doing) is towards a backline of six footers. Hoping for better options!  

What do we want? A striker! When do we want one? Now!

The most eagerly awaited news of the summer will be the signing of a new striker. In all probability, two are badly needed. One with a reliable and proven track record, the ther with potential as one for the future. The striker conundrum has particular significance at West Ham due to the many past failures who have been unable to make their mark. It has been our lot for most of the Premier League era.

At least 20 strikers have now been linked with a move to the Hammers since the transfer gossip window sprang open at the start of June. Some rumours are lazy journalism (Romelu Lukaku), some hang around for a while before disappearing (Jonathan David) and others you just pray are someone’s idea of a joke (Tammy Abraham, Kelechi Iheanacho). The rumour of the week is Alexander Sorloth whose purple patch at Villareal last season has put gloss on an otherwise undistinguished career – including a spell at Crystal Palace.

As I see it, acceptable front-runners would be Ivan Toney, Youssef En-Nesyri, and possibly Jhon Duran. En-Nesyri obviously has previous with Lopetegui but is in danger of becoming one of those names that is perennially linked but never comes to pass. Toney may be the best. His betting indiscretions – and the risk of it being repeated – may be preventing bigger clubs taking a gamble, so perhaps there is an opportunity to take advantage as Redknapp did with Di Canio all those years ago.

Careful What You Wish For 2: The Takeover

West Ham takeover fever is back in the news this week with self-styled football consultant, Keith Wyness claiming that exploratory talks are underway to put the club up for sale. Many will say “not before time” but experience elsewhere suggests this has far greater potential to go horribly wrong than a change of manager. The current owners are clearly not universally loved but accusations of their greed and penny-pinching can be greatly exaggerated. They have been prepared to spend money, unfortunately they have not done so wisely.

For all their shortcomings the owners may be preferable to the US investment funds who have taken an interest in European football in recent years but whose mode of operation is to load their acquisitions with debt. Tread very carefully!   

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All views expressed in this article are not necessarily the opinions of any real person, living or dead – unless they turn out to be correct.

West Ham Monday Briefing: Max Kilmania, Scattergunnery, and Reasons To Be Fearful Part Three

July, she will fly, and give no warning to her flight. Time moves on, the season edges ever closer, but West Ham’s rebuilding is more about sales than purchases. Is it time yet to panic?

[ominous music playing]

I feel there has been a subtle change of pre-season mood in the last few days. Gone are the carefree claims of West Ham being busy in the opening days of transfer window, replaced by niggling suspicions that the club needs to pull its collective finger out and get a move on with recruitment.

With no sense irony, one of the more prolific transfer sites – which happily repeats each and every unsubstantiated rumour and half-truth on a daily basis – has accused the club of taking a scattergun approach to recruitment. There is no evidence to support that. Although, we should recognise it makes perefct sense to identify several targets for each position. Success rates are likley not high once it comes down to the nitty gritty of negotiating terms and contracts.

Past performance does not cast the Hammer’s hierarchy as stealthy and agile operators when it comes to signing players. For them, no potential deal can’t be improved by an extended period of petty haggling. Can they really sign six or seven players in a few weeks?

The first pre-season friendly takes place in less than 21 days and the big kick-off is now under seven weeks away. Not long to rebuild the squad and schooling them to play a whole new ball game. Perversely, the most significant rebuild activities to date have been even more outgoings as we bid a fond farewell to Said Benrahma, Ben Johnson and Divin Mubama. Nayef Aguerd and Kurt Zouma are expected to follow. Of the two signings, Luis Guilherme is one for the future while Wes Foderingham will be mainly employed carrying the kit and slicing the half-time oranges.

It leaves a lot of work to do and not much time to do it in. Every team in the modern Premier League is based around roles and organisation. If the expectation of Julen Lopetegui is to transform West Ham into a possession-based side playing out from the back, then that has to be drilled into the players over and over again on the training ground. If half of those players have yet to be signed, then the challenge increases exponentially.

Unless the pace of recruitment picks up significantly, we may well be in for a very slow start to the season. It would be sure to put added pressure on a coach, who may not enjoy the longest of honeymoon periods, and with the careful-what-you-wish-for brigade sniping from the sidelines.

[money being counted]

The dilemma facing West Ham is hoping to get recruitment done early while signing players at bargain prices. Unless they are desperate to raise money, selling clubs hold most of the cards in the early days of the window. If there is perceived competition for a player then why would they accept a low-ball bid now rather than hold out for a better deal?

This is perfectly illustrated in what has been reported on the pursuit of Max Kilman, a player who is allegedly one of the Hammer’s top targets. If Wolves don’t need to sell and there is also interest from Manchester United and Newcastle, they would be daft to agree now to a bid that didn’t meet their valuation? The time for compromise comes towards the end of the window. But only if they are resigned to losing him and need to fund a replacement. Personally, I believe it is time to move on. It is wrong to get fixated over a single player (Jesse Lingard?) and at an asking price of up to £45 million there must be better value out there.

None of us know how much West Ham are prepared to commit to on player transfers and wages in the summer . There are external limits imposed by PSR/ FFP but these are different to any restrictions that may arise from funding or cash flow. I read one self-appointed club insider who, having studied O Level Accounting, came up with a figure of £55 million. Several rumour sites have picked this up and have been running with as a fact. While I doubt the figure has any credibility, I suspect the club’s summer plans were predicated on cashing in on the sale of Lucas Paqueta. With that option not currently available, it does raise awkward question about what assurances were given to a coach who has previous with broken promises. Selling any of the club’s few remaining player assets would only make the rebuilding job even more problematical.

[indistinct transfer chatter]

It has been a disappointing week for the transfer target table with only 12 new names coming to my attention. The full list (click here) now stands at 98 targets having failed to breakthrough the century barrier. No doubt the ongoing Euros and Copa America has diverted attention.

With the window now fully open in the major European leagues, activity may start to accelerate until it ‘slams shut’ on 31 August. According to the Transfermkt website, the Saudi Pro League window runs from 17 July to 6 October. Their unlimited millions may well have ramifications for Premier League clubs.  

Several of this week’s additions – Lukaku, Walker-Peters, Wan-Bissaka – would have been right up the Scottish manager’s street. Hopefully, there are now loftier ambitions.

[checking for minor hidden infringements]

It was refreshing to see England finally make a telling contribution to Euro 2024 when the PGMOL contingent imposed its finicky interpretation of VAR onto the Germany – Denmark game. About time people spent more time discussing the refereeing talking points than the action on the pitch. Don’t mention the VAR.

West Ham Monday Briefing: Rampant Rumours, Lopetegui’s Magnificent Seven Signings, and Striker Light

While we are distracted by the Euros the new Premier League season creeps ever closer with less than eight weeks to go. Will the new look West Ham be ready to go for the ball?

I Heard A Rumour

Keeping tabs on West Ham transfer rumours seemed like a fun idea at the outset. It would be an amusing distraction during the long summer days and nights as the Hammers sought to rebuild their squad out of the shambles left behind by the Scottish manager.

But the early enthusiasm is rapidly becoming as tiresome as a general election campaign. I had bargained on the flow of rumours settling down after an initial flurry, but the speculation shows no sign of slowing. It’s not, though, the number of rumours themselves that cause the distress. It’s having to wade through three-paragraphs of discharge on the background to Julen Lopetegui’s appointment before getting to the point of the story. Is there an Artificial Irrelevance engine that churns out this stuff?

Following another record week of gossip, we have now reached 86 potential targets – and there are sure to be some I have missed altogether. Still, I’ve started so I’ll finish – in the hope that in the real-world Tim Steidten is quietly masterminding recruitment behind the scenes.

There are two deviations in this week’s rumours. The first is that wonderkids have been replaced in the headlines by starlets, although it is not obvious what the differences are. Perhaps a starlet is a little older or a little bit less exciting than a wonderkid. The second is the slightly more worrying trend of the Hammers being linked to assorted detritus deemed surplus to requirements at other Premier League clubs. Dominic Calvert-Lewis, Callum Wilson and a clutch of Arsenal academy rejects, for example. The type of players who would have been on the previous manager’s shopping list. Forget your new-fangled data driven analysis, these guys might be too old, injury prone, or not much good, but hey, they do have Premier League experience.

The pursuit of Wes Foderingham is turning into a classic long running West Ham transfer saga. Quite what data needs to be crunched to sign a veteran, 3rd choice, emergency use only goalkeeper is anyone’s guess. Perhaps a check of his stats can confirm whether he is competent enough at putting the cones out during training.

Magnificent Seven Signings Needed In The Next Four Weeks

With the fixtures now issued, the tick of the clock is gradually sounding louder. It is only 54 days to the start of the new season, and 26 days to the first friendly against Dagenham & Redbridge. As things stand, Luis Guilherme is the only new arrival – nad he has been signed for potential rather than immediate impact. Time looks short for bringing in the required number of bodies and getting them organised to play the way the coach wants them to. Otherwsie a slow start to the season is guaranteed.

I was not a scholar of the way that Lopetegui played during his time at Wolves. A general summary of his preferred approach is: playing out from the back, adopting a high back-line, providing width from the full-backs, keeping hold of possession and energetic pressing. If that is the aim at West Ham, then very few of the current squad are equipped to deliver it. The only obvious contenders are Alphonse Areola, Edson Alvarez, Jarrod Bowen, Mohammed Kudus, and Lucas Paqueta. While Vladimir Coufal, Dinos Mavropanos, Emerson, James Ward-Prowse, and Tomas Soucek can provide useful backup, they don’t feel like starters in such a system to me. The assumption is that both Ben Johnson and Nayef Aguerd will be leaving anyway.

It represents quite a gap between desire and reality – even worse if some of the chosen few are tempted away or sacrificed in order to raise funds. This would leaves major priorities as a completely new backline, a mobile defensive minded midfielder, and a striker or two. As a minimum, a further seven signings are needed on board – and quickly.

My Kingdom For A Striker

I counted at least four number one transfer targets in the media during the week. My impression of the most persistent of the very many links seemingly being Max Kilman, Ryan Sessegnon, Youssef En-Nesyri, and Jayden Oosterwolde.

Although estimates of transfer kitty size should always be taken with a pinch of salt, I am not convinced that splurging a significant part of whatever funds are available on Kilman would be a wise move. If the fee is as reported in the £35 – £40 million range, there must be better value out there for a central defender. If big money is going to be spent in any position it has to be for a striker. West Ham’s woes in that department over the past dozen years or so is the stuff of legend. A revolving door of non-scoring duds. It is the most important position to get right and unfortunately, the most difficult one to fill on a budget.  

None of the striker names tat have been mentioned so far really get the juices flowing. And there are several that I hope have zero foundation to them, including Calvert-Lewin, Abrahams, and Wilson. Of the other players linked none have been especially prolific throughout their careers. I can understand why the familiarity of En-Nesyri would appeal to Lopetegui as a known quantity for his system, but he has never caught the eye when I have seen him play. Perhaps taking a gamble (no pun intended) on Ivan Toney would be the smart move despite his poor form after serving his ban – as well as the worry that he might well re-offend. At his best Toney is an excellent all-round striker with an ability to link up play and a healthy goalscoring record.

There does seem to be an incompatibility about the rather deseparate situation West Ham find themselves in on transfers. If you need to bring in many new players as early as possible in the window, then the opportunity to hold out for the best deals is limited – especially where there is competition for signature. But if you end up paying top dollar to get your man, there is less money remaining to satisfy the other gaps needed to be filled. A few minor miracles are required from Tim.

Naturally, the situation is not helped by the ongoing uncertainty over the future of Paqueta. Surely, even the Saudis wouldn’t be dumb enough to cough up a barrel load of oil money while the risk of world-wide ban is still a possibility. Incidentally, the latest from Paqueta Island is that no suspicious activity on the timing of polling day was found, but a lot has been staked on the Prime Minister being awarded a green card after the election.

This week’s list of unlikley transfer targets is shown below. You can see the entire 86 names here.

West Ham Monday Briefing: Sleepless in Sao Paulo, Crime and Punishment, and Transfer Window Waffle

The boys from Brazil once again dominate the news from the London Stadium. Could there be two new ones on the way, and will another be receiving a lifetime ban?

Sleepless in Sao Paulo

Many years ago, I remember tuning in to Radio 5 on the drive home from work to hear that West Ham had signed Eyal Berkovic. There had been no weeks of chatter and speculation beforehand. No mention of monitoring the situation, preparing bids, and holding talks. It was a good old-fashioned swoop in classic Harry Redknapp style.

Today there are no such stealthy manoeuvrings in the world of football transfers. I don’t know if it is true at all clubs, but details of West Ham’s recruitment plans are as leaky as last season’s defence. As if the media have a Where’s Tim app that can track his whereabouts at the touch of a button. And if media reports are to be believed, every transfer pursuit follows the three-act format of Romantic Comedy screen play – meet, lose, and get.

Tim (played by Hugh Grant) tracks down a beautiful potential signing, they get along famously, the player is excited about the London Stadium project and appearing in the Premier League, the club see him as a perfect fit for the progressive football model being built at West Ham. Then everything goes horribly wrong. The Chairman (Bill Nighy) can’t agree contract terms. Sporting Directors from other Premier League teams have been following matters on Newsnow and attempt to hijack the deal. Clubs from oil rich nations get involved (Four Beheadings and A Funeral) splashing piles of cash that would double his weekly salary. As the credits roll Tim makes a last gasp dash to the departure gate at Sao Paulo airport waving an improved offer from London in his hand.

Crime and Punishment

The Lucas Paqueta betting investigation rumbles on with the player’s representatives requesting an extension to the original June 3 deadline for responding to charges. No new date has yet to be agreed. The noises being made last week were that the FA would be pushing for a lifetime ban should Paqueta be found guilty.

Now, it could be a case of the claret and blue tinted spectacles kicking in, but a lifetime ban feels completely disproportionate to the severity of the offence. It’s a huge stretch to interpret being yellow carded as an attempt to fix the outcome of a match. The most ridiculous aspect here is that bookmakers allow bets to be placed on peripheral and easily influenced events like throw-ins, corners, and yellow cards in the first place. Just another case of their greed, I suppose. Happy to take your money as long as they hold all the cards, yellow or otherwise. The role of Betway in this affair should not be overlooked. Wouldn’t a quiet word have been more appropriate than a full-scale whistle-blowing that could result in one of their partners losing out on £85 million. The idea that a gambling firm was overcome with a sense of moral responsibility must be pure fantasy.

Then there is the FA, an organisation who have happily accepted Russian gangsters and murderous nation states as fit and proper football club owners, getting on their high horse over a prank by a bunch of Brazilian islanders. An independent regulator is looking more and more like a sound idea.

Speaking of authoritarian club owners, the Premier League are now being sued by Manchester City for discrimination because they have been prevented them from funnelling even more cash into the team that has just won their fourth consecutive title. City’s case also complaining bitterly about the ‘tyranny of the majority’ in Premier League decision making – or democracy as we call it.

We are programmed to dislike all the ‘big six’ clubs but City are now the most despised in my opinion. I would love to see them expelled from the league and stripped of all their titles when the hearing into the 155 breaches of rules is finally heard. But that is never going to happen!

Breaking News: Transfer Update

Only four days to go before the transfer window officially opens and the speculation keeps on rolling in. Speculation continues to be dominated by Brazilians with strong rumours that Luis Guilherme is about to become the first signing of the Lopetegui era. A worrying trend in recent days has seen Guilherme regularly described as a wonderkid. It is a term that has historically been applied to youngsters who eventually disappear without trace. A second stuborn rumour is that the Hammers will lso be signing Brazilian centre-back Vitao.

We should not forget the final exciting update of the transfer week as West Ham have seemingly fought off stiff competition to capture the signature of Wes Foderingham as third choice keeper.

A further 15 names have been added to the speculative target list this week as shown below. The full list of 52 linked players can be viewed here. Even if most are made up, they are a better class of speculation than we were used to under the Scottish Manager (it is bad luck to mention him by name). No more Maguires, McTominays or Brownhills on the list – although Tammy Abraham remains a worry.

There is Nothing Like a Dane

Apropos of nothing, I was looking through the annals of Scandinavians who have turned out in a West Ham shirt. Given the love of their gods for hammers, it is a very short list. There are currently 14 Danes, 8 Swedes, 5 Norwegians, and 1 Finn playing in the Premier League. But none at the London Stadium.

It has not been a fertile area of recruitment at the club with the most successful in terms of both appearances and goals being Marc Rieper. I was very sorry to see him go when he left for Cletic.

Here is the full list: Rieper (101 apps, 5 goals), Jaaskelainen (61, 0), Ljungberg (28, 2), Jacobsen (26, 0), Nordtveit (21, 0), Carew (21, 2), Tihinen (10, 0), Soma (9, 0), Alexanderson (8, 0), Samuelson (2, 0).

West Ham Monday Briefing: Blank Czechs, Everyone Wants a Brazilian, and VAR Check Incomplete

In this week’s round-up we look at shot shy defenders, South American Hammers and Thursday’s vote on the abolition of VAR. Plus the latest names added to the transfer shopping list.

In case you are already suffering Premier League withdrawal symptoms, a reminder that there are just 11 days to the opening of the transfer window, 15 to the publication of new fixture lists, and 75 to the start of the 2024/25 season. In the interim there is the opportunity to watch the Euros, prepare for the club’s pre-season tour, and follow the relentless stream of transfer gossip.

One of the positions that has rarely surfaced in the flood of transfer speculation to date is any new faces at right back. With Ben Johnson likely to leave this would leave the door open for another season as first choice to Vladimir Coufal. Let’s face it the squad has too many issues to fix them all in a single summer. If that is the case then it would allow Vladimir to close in on super Thomas Repka’s modern day record of most games for a West Ham outfield player without a goal. At present Repka leads the race by 188 to 153. It would be an easy target to achieve with another full season for the wayward Czech international.

I know that many are keen to point out that football existed before the Premier League was formed, so let’s look at the all-time records. Topping the leader board is William Cope (1914 – 1922) with 258 games but his claims come with the caveat that a large part of his career was war-time football – not usually included in career statistics. Next in line, and peacetime record holder, is Alfred Earl (1925 – 1932) with a total of 206 appearances at right back. Tied with Repka in third place is left-back Charlie Walker (1936 – 1946) – another whose career which included war-time competition. The other centurions from (my) living memory are Keith Coleman (1973 – 1977) and Danny Gabbidon (2005 – 2011) with 122 and 113 games respectively.

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As clubs strat to circle for their early summer signings, Tim Steidten has reportedly been shuttling back and forth to Brazil in an attempt to increase the samba quotient in the threadbare West Ham squad. Early targets are said to be Fabricio Bruno, Wesley Gassova, and Luis Guilherme. With the Bruno deal apparently stalled due to wage demands, the chatter on what will be first deal of the season has since switched to the 18-year-old Guilherme. It would be an interesting move to sign such a young player – no matter how talented or exciting – unless it was felt he could be a regular starter in a punishing Premier League season.

Much, of course, will depend on how the Lucas Paqueta situation eventually pans out following the recently announced FA charges. Whatever the outcome, it is unlikely to be resolved quickly leaving a high chance that he will feature in the Hammer’s plans during the opening part of the season. It will also mean no injection of external funds to finance the rebuild.

There are now more Brazilians in the Premier League than from any other country, other than England. The last count stood at 34, ahead of France (28), Republic of Ireland (27), Spain (25) and Portugal (22). They have not all been a rip-roaring success with the West Ham experience being less than sparkling. A fact that applies equally across the band of South American players who have donned the claret and blue. Of 22 South Americans, only Manuel Lanzini has made it past 100 games. The best was probably Carlos Tevez, whose stay was disappointingly short. The worst was Carlos Sanchez. Pablo Zabaleta and Nobby Solano were great players but came to West Ham too late in their careers.

The full cast of South American players to feature in at least one first team game is shown below. There has yet to be a Bolivian or Venezuelan Hammer:

Argentina (Lanzini, Zabaleta, Tevez, Zarate, Calleri, Scaloni, Mascherano, Tarrico)
Brazil (Paqueta, Anderson, Ilan, Nene)
Chile (Margas, Jimenez)
Colombia (Sanchez, Armero)
Paraguay (Balbuena, Montenegro)
Uruguay (Poyet, Lopez)
Ecuador (Valencia)
Peru (Solano)

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On Thursday, Premier League clubs will vote on the proposal put forward by Wolves to scrap VAR. The indications are that it will not get the support of the 14 clubs needed to carry the motion. It has been reported that West Ham will be voting for its retention. The attitude of the clubs is a strange one. The general consensus is that VAR has made the matchday experience for supporters significantly worse. Any marginal improvement in the perceived accuracy of decisions – remembering that many are subjective anyway – is offset by a loss of spontaneity and prolonged review times. The feeling being that games are being officiated by faceless technicians in Stockley Park.

Against that, the TV media have grown to love VAR and the ‘talking points’ that it gives them. Presenters have made VAR checks part of the entertainment for the uncommitted hoe audience. It has also given them a sense of power as they view replays and listen in to the conversations of the VAR team. Decisions are announced in many cases before the referee and supporters in the stadium get to know. It is not a good way to treat the paying customers.

The best hope from Thursday’s vote may be to prompt a serious review of VAR’s remit. Their campaign to leave no stone unturned in finding a reason to disallow a goal has to be curtailed.

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It has been a quieter week on the gossip front with only 14 new names to add to last week’s total. A few shockers on the list which we can only hope have no substance to them.

West Ham Monday Briefing: New Coach Class, Paqueta’s Cautionary Tale, and Tim’s Smart Recruitment

Out with the old and in with the new at West Ham. But a lot of hard work is needed to freshen up the small and aged squad left behind and prepare them for a very different style of play.

That’s another season fully wrapped up. We now know the full lineup for the 2024/25 Premier League season and which of those clubs will be playing in the new convoluted format of European competition. The latter not being something that will involve West Ham this time around.

The season had ended for the Hammers the previous weekend with a typical Moyesball performance. The ten men behind the ball containment plan failing to make it beyond two minutes and taking all the wind out of Super Sunday’s sails. Manchester City should have been out of sight by the break until a stupendous Mohammed Kudus strike briefly gave the game the impression of a contest. But rather than attempt to capitalise on the hosts sudden jitters, it was back to Plan A for David Moyes, and the outcome became a formality. West Ham once again playing their part as perfectly obliging last-day opponents.

It is acceptable for people to have differing views of Moyes time at West Ham. Anyone is entitled to believe he did a fantastic job, but I imagine that view is skewed significantly by the Europa Conference win. An average league finish of 9th over four seasons is roughly what should be expected for a club of its size. But achieving mediocrity in such a dull and cautious fashion was always the biggest beef.

What I cannot accept, however, are claims that Moyes left the club in a better position than he found it, A quick scan through the squad list should immediately dispel claims that it is in good shape. Having spent in excess of £400 million on player recruitment it is a shambles. It has often been said that Moyes ‘prefers’ to work with a small squad, as if that was ever a reasonable position for a club playing two games per week for large parts of the season. It was negligent, not reasonable. Anyway, we are now able to draw a line under the previous manager’s tenure and need never mention him again.

Julen Lopetegui was finally announced as West Ham’s head coach this week and it already feels like a breath of fresh air is blowing through Rush Green. How long that lasts will depend on the success or otherwise of the massive rebuilding job required in the upcoming transfer windows. The task is to big to fix all the problems in a single window. And it’s not just a case of bringing in the numbers, they also need to be bedded down into a style of play that is the polar opposite of the last four years. If it tkes eight to ten games to do that, then the pressure may be on.

The video released by the club on Lopetegui’s first day was obviously stage-managed for the sake of positivity, but there was a good feel to the relationship between the coach, Tim Steidten and Mark Noble. Maintaining that will be critical in the coming months for squad management, recruitment and bringing youth players into first team consideration.

The Lucas Paqueta situation has surely put a spanner in the works of the summer recruitment plans. Any thoughts of cashing in on a £85 million release clause to fund incoming transfers are now firmly on hold. Although, to be honest, I’ve struggled to understand how his maverick approach to the game would fit within the structure of Pep Guardiola’s keep-ball philosophy.

It is impossible to know how the charges will pan out with the FA. Do they have hard evidence or is it just a case of looking dodgy?  There will need to be more than suspicious circumstances and a slow-motion VAR-style trial of Paqueta’s yellow-cards to justify ending someone’s career. And what are the timescales involved? The Ivan Toney case seemed to drag on for some months and Manchester City have been in the dock for almost 18 months over their 115 charges. If Paqueta is implicated, what was he thinking?

It is ironic that Betway were the whistleblowers in the case. The gambling industry is one of the most immoral and unscrupulous of all businesses and the sooner West Ham break the connection with them the better. Taking bets on throw-ins, corners, and yellow-cards is just asking for trouble.

The summer transfer window officially opens on June 14 but already the rumour mill has been running red-hot. Here is a cut out keep guide to the stories seen so far – I’m sure some have been missed.

We can only speculate on the positions Lopetegui and Stediten see as the priorities in sorting out the current mess. If the intention is possession-based football with a high press, high backline and with width coming from the full-backs then there’s not much to work with. A new striker, a couple of centre-backs, a new right back, and a defensive midfielder as a minimum.

Recruitment is going to have to be smart. It seems highly unlikely the club will be shopping in the £40 – £50 million aisle – certainly not for defenders. Tim is going to have to earn his corn and live up to the pearl-diving reputation.

It will be interesrting to see how the Flynn Downes resolves itself. Most supporters saw a very good player there but the manager who is no longer mentioned just didn’t fancy him. He can only have improved with a year at the top end of the Championship orchestrating play in a passing side – and there is the benefit of qualification as one of the homegrown contingent. While meeting the target of eight homegrown players enables the maximum 25 man squad to be achieved, no benefit is derived from registering a homegrown player if he is unlikely to ever feature e.g. Aaron Cresswell.

It is going to be a fascinating summer at the club with early business essential to ward off those recurring bad dreams whereby the intellectual lightweights of the pundit fraternity – Sutton, Crooks, Collymore and co – are whispering “be careful what you wish for” in my ear. COYI!

Wishing You All A Happy New Transfer Window

Hooray! The transfer window is open again. The January window is typically very quiet at West Ham but does it make sense to rely on the same old bare bones when there are trophies to be won?

Never mind all that nonsense about peace, health and prosperity, it is the springing open of the transfer window that ushers in 2024 with the greatest anticipation. Will the Hammers be up to much over the coming month? Probably not, but here we take a moment to contemplate West Ham’s transfer conundrums past and present.

The Problem With The Squad Is Depth

According to the Transfer Market website West Ham have the 10th most valuable squad in the Premier League – coming in at an estimated EUR 462 million. In addition to the traditional ‘big’ six clubs, the Hammers also fall behind the Newcastle, Aston Villa, and Brighton squads who are valued at EUR 640 million, EUR 638 million, and EUR 488 million respectively. The website bases its market value estimates on age, performance, contract length, position, international caps, and potential. Although some of that may be subjective, it does provide a reasonable indication as to the relative strength of squads we are in immediate competition with.

Considering the best elevens of the four clubs, there is not much between them. But as you drill down, the lack of depth in the West Ham squad becomes apparent. David Moyes has challenged the squad players to step up to fill in for the AFCON absentees, but based on recent performances the cupboard has looked incredibly bare. The reserve players – Ings, Benrahma, Fornals, Kehrer, Cresswell, Johnson – have either not been good enough, or have had insufficient game time, to provide effective backup when called upon. It is fortunate – either through good luck or sensible training methods – that the Hammers have enjoyed a mostly injury free season compared to other sides. Ironically, it was the one long term injury (to Michail Antonio) which forced the manager into the attacking positional changes that have proved the bright spot to the first half of the season.

Transfer Spend and Payroll

Attention during transfer windows is typically focused on net expenditure – transfer fee incomings minus outgoings – but tends to gloss over player salaries which actually makes up a larger slice of the pie. Since the start of the 2012/13 season, West Ham have spent £855 million on transfers and received £390 million from player sales – a net spend of £465 million. During the same period, player salaries have totalled approximately £800 million.

Over the last 13 transfer windows (since the start of the 2017/18 season) the net spend at West Ham has been £342 million which is higher than at Villa (£329 million) and Brighton (- £19 million) but below that of Newcastle (£463 million) whose spending has been inflated over the past four windows by deep Saudi pockets. The evidence of spending against squad value would suggest that West Ham have failed to spend their money wisely.

A comparison of current annual player payrolls has West Ham at £94 million compared to £117 million at Villa, £84 million at Newcastle, and £61 million at Brighton. It should also be noted that the West Ham squad has the highest average age across the four clubs – Fulham are the only older squad in the Premier League.

Transfer Hits And Misses

The West Ham transfer merry-go-round has had its fair share of hits and misses over the years. For services rendered, the modest fees paid for Cresswell, Ogbonna, Antonio, Fabianski, Coufal, and Dawson have each showed a welcome return on investment. Payet and Arnautovic were both exceptional signings who promised much before their claret and blue careers ended in acrimonious circumstances.

Of the players still on the books, the signings of Bowen, Paqueta, Kudus, Ward-Prowse, and Alvarez have either been, or are looking likely to become, great business. We can never know how long any player’s West Ham careers will last but if we have to sell, selling at a handsome profit is to be desired – something that has been a rare occurrence over the years.

The list of transfer flops is long and expensive. In no particular order, my personal list of stinkers – based on huge fees, big wages or generally failing to live up to expectations – are Jarvis, Carroll, Hernandez, Hugill, Anderson, Wilshere, Haller, Ajeti, Vlasic, Cornet and Ings. No transfer is guaranteed to succeed but having finally woken up to need for professional recruitment, lets hope this level of wastefulness is a thing of the past.

Financial Fair Play

We can never be certain whether the FFP card is being used as a reason or an excuse not to spend money. The rules appear to keep changing and, in any case, become obscured by the smoke and mirrors of accounting practices. It was reported that West Ham just about scraped within the UEFA rules for the last financial year. But the position should be eased as result of the summer sale of Declan Rice. While the fee received for Rice should show up in full in this year’s revenue, the transfer fees paid out can be amortised across the length of the incoming players contracts. If my calculations are correct, the charge for last summer’s incoming transfers will be equal to £25 million in the current financial year.

Academy Rewards

The money received from the Rice sale illustrates the value that a club’s academy can deliver. Sadly, the West Ham academy has proved largely unproductive since the golden generation of Ferdinand, Lampard, Cole, Carrick, and Defoe. Since the 2012/13 season, 38 academy graduates have played for the first team at some level, but only six have ever made a Premier League start. Their 242 starts breaks down as Rice 190, Johnson 34, Diagana 6, Ngakia 5, Burke 4, and Oxford 3. It’s a very disappointing record.

Academy teams have performed well over the past few seasons, but success has yet to filter through as first team breakthroughs. While it is tempting to pin the blame on Moyes for his reluctance to trust in youth, the poor return is not new – or unique to West Ham. It has become increasingly difficult for youth players to make it at the top level.

Transfer Priorities

The January window is usually a time for tweaks rather than wholesale changes. It is a time for finding that missing piece of the jigsaw in a bid for glory, or to make desperate buys to stave off relegation. Is there any single signing that could make all the difference to West Ham’s season? A new centre back perhaps to cover for Zouma’s dodgy knees? A free-scoring striker but how would that fit with Bowen and Kudus? Someone more technically gifted than Soucek to partner Alvarez in a double pivot? Where to start?

The Hammers also have an issue with home grown players which limits their ability to offload several of the fringe players who are unlikely to feature regularly in the Premier League. The home grown contingent is at the minimum level and includes Ings, Cresswell, Johnson, Coventry and Anang. If any are sold they would need to be replaced by other British players who are generally priced at a premium..

History shows that West Ham are rarely active in the winter window. Since 2012, only Byram (2016), Snodgrass and Fonte (2017), Hugill (2018), Bowen and Soucek (2020), and Ings (2023) have been January arrivals. Reports of multiple comings and goings should be taken with a pinch of salt. Change is needed but most will surely wait until the summer. But it will not stop a daily dose of transfer speculation for the next four weeks.

Carry On Up The Transfer Window: A London Stadium Farce

Just over a week to go and the omens are looking bad for a new season of discontent. Who’s to blame for raining on the cup-winning parade?

A theoretical debate that occasionally comes up online is whether supporters would choose a cup win over being relegated. Personally, I’d consider it too big a sacrifice, but others have different perspectives. After all, there’s no greater joy in football than the thrill of a cup final success.

In many ways, what we have now at West Ham is a watered-down variant of this dilemma. Although attempting to second guess what goes on between David Sullivan’s ears is dangerous territory, there is every chance that our manager would now be down the job centre had his team not been victorious in Prague.

Finding a David Moyes advocate among West Ham supporters is now as rare as spotting the abominable snowman. If they exist in any significant numbers among the fan base, they are keeping quiet about it. From the outside it must look strange that a manager who delivered a first trophy in 43 years and has overseen three successive European campaigns is so widely unappreciated. But theirs is a view formed independently of emotional attachment with the uninspiring style of football served up on the pitch.

Moyes is a relic of bygone age of managers. Footballing fogeys such as Allardyce, Pulis, Bruce, Hughes, and Warnock whose tactics and horizons rarely ventured beyond survival. He is the last man standing, attempting to defy the rising tide of progressive play like a modern-day Canute. Even Roy Of The Palace leaves Moyes in the shadows when it comes to fresh ideas. Whichever way you look at it, there surely cannot be any future for him at the club beyond this season – the last year of his contract. Making it until the end of the year would be astonishing.

And that brings us to the simultaneous tragedy and farce of the summer transfer window. An apparent recruitment by committee that at time of writing has yet to yield a single result – and the new season just over a week away. We are still no closer in understanding who is responsible for what on transfers, or what the priorities are. The Venn diagram of players acceptable to both Moyes and Tim Steidten that also satisfy Sullivan’s bank balance features only Dennis Zakaria at its intersection.

The standoff is presumably between Moyes desire to bring in players capable of hitting the ground running and Steidten’s brief of introducing a forward-looking transfer strategy. The two clearly don’t need to be mutually exclusive despite being presented that way. There are plenty of options out there between the extremes of untested teenagers and sunsetting 30-year-olds. The squad already has a wealth of experience. What it is lacking is youth, pace, mobility, and flair.

A club like West Ham should not be paying big money for players at the end of their careers. There is no future in such an approach and Sullivan is right not to pay over the odds for those with no likely resale value in a year or two’s time. Equally, the record of signing expensive established ‘flops’ – Anderson, Haller, Vlasic, and the soon to be departed Scamacca – and selling at huge discounts is just as unsustainable.

The promise that Steidten’s appointment could herald a methodical, reasoned, and professional approach to recruitment is threatened by the hubris of Sullivan and the stubbornness of Moyes. Unfortunately, the only person who can clear the blockage is Sullivan himself. If the alleged Moyes veto on transfers is a contractual stipulation – didn’t Curbishley have something similar that allowed him to claim constructive dismissal – then it or he needs to be removed immediately. Why let a lame duck manager dictate transfer spend and allow him to burden the club with the hefty wages and long contracts of declining players for years to come?

What will happen between now and the end of the window on September 1st is anyone’s guess. Where clubs are desperate to sell then asking prices will reduce. But where there is no imperative to sell, prices may just as easily go up as buying clubs become more desperate. No doubt there will be signings, but the probability of panic buys rises as the deadline approaches. With even more rumoured outgoings on the cards – Scamacca, Cresswell, Antonio – the risk of a below strength squad is high, both in numbers and quality. To my mind the squad is short of six or seven quality players, but I see no way that such a target can be achieved on past performance .

I see no other scenario than a shockingly poor start to the season from an under prepared side. If, and when, signings are made, Moyes will be hesitant to play them for the opening month or so. With vacancies on the coaching staff also unfilled, it has the feel of a season written off before it has begun. Two or three points from the opening half a dozen games if we are lucky.

Creating such a pessimistic state of affairs within a few months of wining the Conference League final is quite staggering. But West Ham has been a terribly run club for as long as I can remember. The irony being that the level of competence and ambition shown is inversely proportional to the loyalty and passion of the fans. It can’t get any worse, can it? COYI!

West Ham’s Transfer Window: A Right Royal Cockney Barrel Of Monkeys

While disappointment, frustration and blundering have long been associated with West Ham’s forays into the transfer market, this summer’s chaos threatens to set new records for incompetence

What to make of the fiasco that is West Ham’s summer transfer window? Less than two weeks to new season kicks-off and still no sign of fresh blood at the London Stadium. And this in a squad that only narrowly avoided relegation in June, is now without its standout player over the past three years, and has a handful of other players way past their best.

The eventual loss of Declan Rice was inevitable and his importance to the team cannot be understated. He was far more than a defensive midfield shield with the strength of his positional play, ability to make interceptions and ball carrying were integral to all aspects of David Moyes uninspiring tactics. His departure was an open secret but the significant overhaul in personnel and approach necessary to compensate for the loss has yet to start. Time is running out and a season of struggle beckons!

Transfer speculation has developed into its own industry in recent years. Media outlets spurt out a steady stream of teasing, sensational content to attract the clicks that drive advertising revenues. Any relationship with or pretence at truth is purely coincidental, making it almost impossible to separate fact from fiction. Most rumours are lazy and recycled speculation and allow us to pick and choose those we want to believe and react to. They are best regarded as entertainment even if, ultimately, that reliable journalist’s story will turn out to be spot on – it’s spotting them that is the challenge.

Meanwhile at West Ham, we are told the club are working tirelessly tracking players, holding talks, and preparing bids – but so far, without success. Most Premier League clubs have finalised at least some of their summer business, although fans of Everton, Palace, Fulham, and Wolves might be equally as frustrated as those at West Ham.

Confusion about what is happening behind the scenes is compounded by the lack of clarity on who now does what when it comes to the identification of transfer targets.  

When West Ham appointed Tim Steidten as Technical Director it was a welcome positive move for a club so often paralysed by a repeating cycle of haphazard recruitment and discounted dead wood clearance. At last, there would be a structure and plan involved in transfer dealings. But for that to work smoothly the footballing philosophies between the Technical Director and Manager must be aligned. The distance between the search for new players and the person responsible for deploying them cannot be too great. The worry is that the individuals concerned are on very different wavelengths.

There is sure be a certain degree of friction between the roles as their respective time horizons differ considerably. The Manager’s job security depends solely on the here and now while the Technical Director is concerned with strategy, planning and succession. It doesn’t need a genius to recognise that alignment in styles would not exist between the ultra-conservative Moyes and the progressively minded  Steidten. The irresistible force has met the immovable object.

So is there a standoff between Moyes and Steidten? Moyes prioritising Premier League experience (the most expensive option) after failing to integrate last summer’s signings into his squad. Making the likes of Ward-Prowse, McTominay, and Maguire right up his street. While Steidten has been appointed to introduce a data driven approach for scouring domestic and overseas leagues to unearth emerging and undiscovered talent. If the stories that Moyes has a veto on all signings are true, then creeks and absence of paddles are the order of the day.

Then we must consider the position of the owners, for whom, it is assumed, Sullivan is still the one the pulling the strings and leading negotiations. A desire to spend wisely is not unreasonable. He would be negligent in spending big money on players late in their career where there would be little or no resale value at the end of their contracts. Or committing a large slice of his budget on any individual player. The club’s position outside the rich six or seven clubs requires a more imaginative transfer strategy if we hope to compete. That may mean players using West Ham as a stepping stone for greater things. The risk with Sullivan, however, is that he cannot resist a haggle and putting in low-ball bids. I wonder how many have slipped through our hands because of that.

So, all in all, the situation is a mess. If, and when, players are signed – and I believe we need at least six – the pre-season will have passed by. Moyes will adopt a cautious, safety-first approach to bedding them in and the opportunity to get early points on the board (or introduce a change in playing style) will be lost. Unless, matters change quickly, excitement for the new season off the back of European trophy success will be terribly subdued. COYI!