Preview – Page 7 – Under The Hammers

The Game Is Up For David Moyes But Can You Guess What Happens Next?

As the on-pitch action fizzles out like a damp squib, the only east-end plotline of note is who’s next for the West Ham hot-seat?

We know, he knows, we know he knows, and he knows we know he knows. Even his pals in the media have finally caught up. The story now isn’t whether David Moyes leaves West Ham or not, but who will replace him when he does. Will they be embarrassed by their superficial punditry and careful-what-you-wish-for-ery? I doubt it. It does make you wonder what value pundits and co-commentators bring to the game, but I guess their job is to get a reaction, not to offer reasoned analysis.

It would be better for all concerned if the club now came out and confirmed the manager will be departing at the end of his contract. Leaving it up in the air makes no sense. Moyes will continue sniping at questions about his future in post-match interviews and the players will feel able to play with a touch more freedom in the final four games.

For the elimination of any remaining doubt here’s a quick refresher on the downward trajectory of Moyesball since its peak at the end of December 2022. In the 90 (NINETY) league games since then there have been 30 wins and 40 defeats – a sorry win percentage of just 33%. Most recently, we have celebrated victory only three times in the last 15 Premier League fixtures. A manager lauded for his organisation skills and defensive nous has presided over the leakiest defence in the division outside the bottom three. And all of this while playing the dullest, dreariest, drabbest excuse for football known to mankind.

As attention turns to what comes next there are several obvious problem areas. Firstly, the summer will be a busy period of managerial change. Just in the Premier League, Manchester United, Chelsea and Newcastle may all be joining Liverpool in looking for a fresh face and fresh ideas. Any coach with a decent CV will be in heavy demand with swift action required. Secondly, an astute coach might run his finger down the thin and ageing squad list and baulk at the size of the rebuilding job required to make it fit for purpose. And, thirdly, the sceptical (hopefully not cynical) suspicion that the Board are incapable of acting with good sense and vision in appointing a successor.

Journalists and commentators have been busily scouring Wikipedia to ensure there are no shortage of managerial rumours. Roughly they fall into three categories: young up-and-coming continental coaches; older been-round-the-blocks experienced managers; and the comedy candidates – yes, you can even get odds on Steve Cooper, Frank Lampard, Steven Gerrard and Scott Parker.

Many Hammer’s fans are putting a lot of faith in the Board taking heed of Tim Steidten’s wise counsel. For the club to progress it has to adopt a far more enlightened approach to both player and coach/ manager recruitment. Identifying potential instead of signing agent recommendations for established players who are not good enough for the bigger clubs. A long list of expensive flops is testament to the shortcomings of past practice. But Steidten will need all his powers of persuasion. For the West Ham Board, a 39-year-old is more likley to be seen as a new player than a manager. Attitudes have to change with the decision makers, whatever that dynamic is in the current ownership structure..

Of the names that have been mentioned, Arne Slot and Ruben Amorin generate the most excitement but are sure to have more glamourous suitors – although it’s not out of the question that a club like West Ham could prove a useful stepping stone for them. Thomas Tuchel’s name has been linked since his departure from Bayern was announced and could be viewed as West Ham’s answer to Unai Emery. He is another who may attract the attention of bigger clubs (Manchester United) and there is an underlying concern as to how well those who have managed at the top can adapt to life further down the ladder. On the face of it, the same might be said of early front-runner, Julen Lopetegui. But dig a little deeper and his CV is not particularly impressive. A short, failed stint at Real Madrid and one Europa League win during a two and a half year spell at Sevilla is not much to show as a 59-year-old. He’s a ‘no’ from me!

The remaining suspects who could satisfy the Board’s desire for experience and also fit within our price and feasibility range are Graham Potter, Gary O’Neil and Paulo Fonseca. I have reservations about Potter. For all the intricacies of his football it lacks the explosive element required to turn possession into goals. With O’Neil, I still have him pigeon-holed as a backs-to-the-wall manager. Great work at Bournemouth and Wolves but very much in the counter-attacking mould.

That leaves Fonseca, the only one of the three without Premier League experience. His brand of football is encouraging but can it translate to the English game? In the past he has been linked with moves to Tottenham, Newcastle, and Aston Villa but nothing has ever come of it. Is there a reason?

I have zero inside track on what might happen. I would be happy with Amorin or Fonseca but its not my call. Equally, there may be other names on Tim’s list that are being kept firmly under wraps. Past performance does not guarantee future results but what are the chances of the Board making the right choice. Steve Bruce anyone?

Despite all the intrigue there’s still the matter of a home match against Liverpool at the weekend. The visitor’s title hopes were effectively torpedoed in last night’s Merseyside derby leaving the high hopes of a magnificent Klopp farewell triumph in tatters. The German has chosen a good time to leave Anfield as it has the look of a team on the way down, at least in the short term. Players such as Nunez and Diaz are decent enough, but do not measure up to the departed Firmino and Mane at their peak. A reaction to the Everton defeat should be enough to see them ease past a demoralised West Ham who have the look of a side going through the motions.

Oddly enough, despite an appalling run of performances and results, European qualification is still mathematically possible. Other sides as well as the Hammers seemingly reluctant to take the opportunity for the minor placings. Could events still take an unexpected turn? COYI!

Moyes, The Palace, And Resignation

The exit of David Moyes looks increasingly certain as the season enters its final weeks. The beginning of the end starts with West Ham’s cross town visit to take on struggling Crystal Palace

In the end the Europa League exit we were expecting came at the hands of Bayer Leverkusen at the London Stadium on Thursday night . There was no faulting the effort and commitment of the players or the intensity at which West Ham approached the game, but ultimately old legs and the lack of reinforcements to replace them turned the tide.

The Hammers had the German champions on the ropes for much of the opening hour. Alonso was forced into making three tactical substitutions before the second half was underway as his side looked decidedly rattled. And then at around 65 minutes, West Ham ran out of steam. Unused to playing a high press, the demands began to take its toll. With nothing of note on the bench, the game petered out as a contest and even the consolation of becoming the first side to beat Leverkusen this season was lost.

What might have been if West Ham had taken another of their early chances can only be speculated upon. It would have made matters interesting but added time would have been a huge challenge. And with a referee who was becoming increasingly erratic as the game progressed who knows how many players would have been left on the pitch.

If the manager took the same approach to games as a matter of routine, rather than saving it up for occasional must-win European ties, then the ranks of Moyes Out supporters would be nowhere near as numerous. It has been fascinating to watch the narrative switch in the last few days with the now almost universal acknowledgement that Moyes contract will not be renewed. It is now an open secret which I guess will be spun as a face-saving mutual agreement once the final whistle sounds on May 19. The manager packing his bags with the claim that he had rejected a new deal.

As I have said before, the history books will present Moyes time at West Ham in a positive light. Although it may not be remembered quite as fondly by a good many of those who were there and paying attention. I am not personally sold on the idea that he has done a superb job. There were, of course, highlights – exciting counter-attacking football in the 2020/21 season and the memorable night in Prague – but the multiple flaws cannot be ignored. The dour, safety-first nature of the football; the inferiority complex against top sides; the absence of tactical flexibility; poor in-game management and use of substitutions; the obsession with running with a tiny squad; players played out of position; and the lack of trust in youth. If and when he goes, he will leave the club with the smallest/ oldest squad in the Premier League, and the need for an urgent summer rebuild. And this despite record breaking investment in new players during four years in charge.

With both manager and player recruitment on the cards, it will make for a double whammy of incoming speculation during the summer months. Clearly, the managerial situation needs to be resolved as the priority, if only to quell fears over some of the unimaginative names being thrown around. Not sure I would be excited by the appointment of Graham Potter but others – Thomas Tuchel, Arne Slot, Kieran McKenna – sound intriguing. The benchmark is not to hire someone who is better than we currently have, but to hire the best man for the job of bringing entertaining football to a second level Premier League club. Another name to throw in the ring is Sebastian Hoeneß who has done an outstanding job at Stuttgart in the shadow of Alonso.

If the pundits are right – unlikely I know – there will be a long line of suitors ready to employ the newly available David Moyes. We will wait to see how well that turns out.

Between now and then, West Ham have the contractual obligation to complete another five Premier League games, starting with today’s fixture against Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park. Theoretically, there is still a target of European qualification for the Hammers, but it is looking to be an increasingly outside bet after last weekend’s loss at home to Fulham. The way I see it is a maximum three or four points from the remaining games with a 9^th or 10^th placed finish.

Palace pulled off a shock win at Liverpool on Sunday to record only their second win in ten games. It has been a less than spectacular start to his Crystal Palace career for manager Oliver Glasner, who holds a 100% record in games against David Moyes – from his tenure at Eintracht Frankfurt. Glasner has been hampered by injuries to key players and his side still need the comfort of a few more points to push away any thoughts of relegation. They will see today as one of the best opportunities in their run-in for the three points needed to ensure safety. Defensively they look suspect but carry a major attacking threat from the flanks through Eze and Olise. Wharton in the centre of midfield has also looked a genuine prospect.

West Ham have several injury concerns going into the game to add to the usual post-Thursday malaise. Among the doubtful are Alphonse Areola, Konstantinos Mavropanos, Jarrod Bowen, Nayef Aguerd, and someone called Kalvin Phillips. There should, however, be recalls for Lucas Paqueta and Emerson after their midweek suspensions. It could mean one last run-out for veteran Angelo Ogbonna who strangely always make the backline appear more secure. Otherwise, the lineup is unlikely to feature any surprises.

My head says defeat, my heart says a scrappy draw. That’s how low expectations are. COYI!

The curse of Thursday / Sunday fixtures strikes once again and leaves West Ham with only a slim chance of qualifying for European competition next season.

Defeat in Leverkusen followed by a disappointing loss to Fulham at the London Stadium makes both routes to qualification increasingly problematic.

A few weeks have passed since I made a prediction that we would need 57 points this season to stand any chance of qualifying for European football next season via our league position. We went into last Sunday’s game at home to mid-table Fulham, who in theory don’t have a lot to play for (neither European qualification nor relegation were an issue), still with a reasonable chance of reaching that total. The fortunate win at Wolves meant we were on 48 points needing a further nine to get there. The other teams in contention have not exactly been pulling up trees, with perhaps the pick of the contenders being Newcastle who have suddenly burst into life again after the late comeback against us.

All that would be needed would be three victories from the final six games to get there. Nothing is easy as far as the Premier League and West Ham are concerned but on paper at least we had three winnable games on paper, at home to Fulham and Luton and a trip to Crystal Palace.

But once again the limitations of the squad were exposed as always seems to happen with the Thursday / Sunday fixtures. An away trip to Germany on Thursday night meant not arriving home until Friday morning (the early hours perhaps?) and played havoc with our preparation for a 2 o’clock Sunday game. That’s one of the excuses anyway. The Thursday / Sunday curse hit Liverpool too when with two defeats they perhaps have lost out in two competitions in the space of just four days.

We had the chance to move on to 51 points and sixth in the table with a win but we well and truly fluffed the opportunity with yet another game where we constantly gave the ball away, allowed the opposition freedom to create chance after chance and couldn’t hit the proverbial barn door or even find the target when we should perhaps have scored. The early chance that fell to Antonio was straightforward and it may have been a different game had he put the ball in the net as he should have done.

For the second time in two games Fabianski was probably our man of the match which, although understandable in an away game to the German champions, was very disappointing in a game at the London Stadium facing Fulham.

Once again Paqueta was booked (no surprise there), and impressive player that he is in many ways, he is also a liability far more times than you’d want to see in a player of his quality.

The swing-o-meter once again swung even further in the direction of the Moyes Out campaign. The ‘Careful what you wish for’ (Moyes In) supporters laid the blame on the players and defended the manager who said he was “gutted” with the missed opportunity to move into sixth.

A few weeks ago I gave my predictions for the final standings (below), and I have added what would now be needed to reach those points in the remaining games:

6. Manchester United – 61 points (11 points from 6 games)
7. Newcastle – 57 points (7 points from 6 games)
8. West Ham – 57 points (9 points from 5 games)
9. Wolves – 55 points (12 points from 6 games)
10. Chelsea – 54 points (7 points from 7 games)
11. Brighton – 51 points (7 points from 6 games)

How different it might have been had we held on to our 3-1 advantage in Newcastle and beaten Fulham! We would now be just three points shy of the target and big favourites for a return to the Europa League next season. But that’s what being a West Ham supporter is all about. We can still get there of course but it would take three wins from the games against Palace, Luton, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester City. Do you think that will happen? It would be great but, no, I can’t see it.

At the time I admitted wearing my optimistic hat and added that my gut feeling was that we would be fortunate to do as well as eighth, and that perhaps tenth was about right. It’s closing up between Newcastle (6^th with 50 points) and Bournemouth (13^th with 42 points). More performances like the Fulham one and who knows what our final position will be? After Monday night Chelsea are now just a point below us with two games in hand so we could soon be down to ninth.

So now our season realistically comes down to overturning a two-goal deficit against unbeaten German champions Bayer Leverkusen who finally managed to shed their ‘Neverkusen’ nickname by clinching the Bundesliga with games to spare, 16 points clear of Bayern Munich. Seeing how difficult Arsenal found it against Munich showed what a seemingly impossible task we would have against Leverkusen.

Three of my favourite West Ham games have been comebacks in Europe. The game against Sevilla a couple of years ago was one, but for my all-time favourites I have to go back to the European Cup Winners Cup campaign in 1975-76. In the quarter final we found ourselves 4-0 down at half time in the first (away) leg to Den Haag (Netherlands) and finished the game losing 4-2. The game at Upton Park a fortnight later was a thriller and we went through to the semi-final (on the away goals rule) with a 3-1 win. The goals that day came from Billy Bonds with a penalty, Frank Lampard and Alan Taylor.

My favourite ever West Ham game came in the semi final when we overcame a 2-1 deficit to Eintracht Frankfurt from the first leg in Germany to win 3-1 at Upton Park in the pouring rain. Trevor Brooking was brilliant that night scoring two goals in an imperious display and for good measure Keith Robson hit a screamer too.

The chances of overcoming Bayer Leverkusen in similar fashion would seem remote given the first leg result and the current form of both teams. It would take a miracle is one phrase I’ve seen, and perhaps that is about right. We have enjoyed a number of special European nights and this would be the greatest yet if it were to happen.

The Germans are little more than even money to lift the trophy in Dublin on 22^nd May. Even Liverpool who have history in coming back from a three goal deficit in Europe have only a remote chance of progressing further. If you like a silly bet then the odds on a West Ham v Liverpool final are around 250/1.

The odds on us reaching the semi-final by any means (on aggregate in normal time, extra time or on penalties) are a measly 11/1. That’s not very generous is it? It would have to be on aggregate surely as Germans always win penalty shoot-outs don’t they? Here’s hoping for a miracle. COYI!

After Midweek Europa Disappointment West Ham Can Still Finish The Weekend In The Premier League Top Six

A West Ham win against Fulham would see them leapfrog Newcastle and Manchester United into the Premier League top six. But can they shale off Thursday’s footballing lesson to do so?

If West Ham’s Europa Cup adventure isn’t quite yet dead and buried then it’s on life support in a David Moyes induced coma. Only the spirit of Den Haag from 1976 can now save us in Thursday’s second leg.

The cautious approach to the Leverkusen game was as expected with Moyes opting for a 3-6-1 formation in the absence of Jarrod Bowen and Edson Alvarez. The lack of depth in the squad – by design rather than accident – continues to astonish anyone who has been paying attention. Whose most cunning of all plans was this to face the extreme demands of Premier League and European football with the smallest squad of players known to man. And with a manager who runs the chosen few players into the ground while marginalising those on the bench with the crumbs of ninetieth minute substitutions. No wonder the dinosaurs died out in added time.

After West Ham peaked as an attacking force in the 8^th minute – their only shot of the game – it was ten men behind the ball for the remainder of the tie. One should not fault the effort of the players in carrying out the manager’s orders, but it was no surprise that one of the Premier League’s leakiest defences was eventually breached by their all conquering opponents. Leverkusen only needed to get lucky once and by the end had managed it twice. The cowardice of the approach by a side from the continents ‘premier’ league in the quarter final of a cup competition was the true disgrace of the evening. Careful what you wish for, my bahoochie!

Topping off the day’s events were the yellow cards won by Lucas Paqueta and Emerson, who now both miss the second leg. They say the only inevitable things in life are death and taxes, but Paqueta getting booked in that game couldn’t be far behind. It would have been part of Alonso’s plan to needle him, but a mature footballer needs to be able to deal with such provocation. I imagine it was double cachaças all-round on Paqueta Island on Thursday night. I have mentioned before, but I struggle with the idea of Paqueta as a Pep Guardiola player. His maverick, instinctive, flicks and tricks seem at odds with Guardiola’s obsessive attention to control and ball retention. The Old Trafford circus is a far likelier destination for him.

Of immediate interest to West Ham is a return to league football and an encounter with Fulham at the London Stadium. Remarkable that a win would see them climb up to sixth in the table. There is little enthusiasm among the chasing pack to qualify for the Europa Conference, it seems. The only form team are Newcastle who have a new lease of life since being gifted the points by the Hammers two weeks ago. Any more performances like yesterdays from big Ange will see Ryan Mason back in charge at the Lane before you can say “what’s the point of Timo Werner.”

West Ham’s recent league form has stumbled between mediocre and uninspiring, although they did manage to scrape their third victory of 2024 at Wolves last weekend. The first half was as poor a performance as any this season and was only saved by the hosts lack of precision in front of goal. The half time changes (plus Wolves losing Ait-Nouri) changed the complexion of the game completely. Not sure how much credit the manager gets for fixing his own mistakes, but it did show the group can play decent, front-foot football when given the opportunity. Even then the irresistible urge to drop back once in the lead was obvious and it was only thanks to VAR that the three points were preserved.

Jarrod Bowen and Alphonse Areola will again be absent and there are injury concerns reported with Dinos Mavropanos. A wise manager would move Mohammed Kudus to the right and bring in a specialist left sided replacement – Maxwell Cornet or Oliver Scarles (heresy, I know). But we know Moyes will persist with a defensive midfield three of Edson Alvarez, Tomas Soucek, and James Ward-Prowse. Michail Antonio will be left to expend whatever puff he has in the tank until he is replaced by Ben Johnson in the 69^th minute.

You may remember years ago the West Ham programme would occasionally publish the unofficial London Championship table. Well, as a treat, this is what it looks like for 2023/24 to date.

A decent effort by the Hammers despite experiencing two of the most humiliating thrashings of the season. The 6-0 home defeat to Arsenal, and the 5-0 surrender at Craven Cottage. Today presents an opportunity for revenge against Marco Silva’s side who have yet to win away in London.

Silva is one of the names occasionally touted around as a potential summer replacement for the Moyesiah. From his record, it is difficult to know what to make of him. He comes across as a passionate, tactically astute manager and a good motivator. His brand of football is attractive and way more courageous than what we have become used to, but his teams appear to perform in fits and starts. A run of good results followed by an equally lengthy slump – or that’s my perception of it. Better than what we’ve got but not necessarily the best we can get.

Fulham have a fully fit squad to call on today with South American trio Palhinha, Willian, and Muniz the players to watch out for. After a slow start, Muniz has hit a rich run of goalscoring form and is the main threat to the Hammers hopes of keeping a first clean sheet in 13 games. Only Sheffield United have won fewer away games than the visitors and their win at Manchester United in February is the only success in the last 15 on the road.

The lack of squad rotation has made the Sunday after the Thursday before a less than rewarding time for West Ham – just two wins from the last eight. I can see that run continuing with a 1-1 draw this afternoon. COYI!

Is There Any Hope For West Ham Against Das Invincibles?

It feels like mission impossible for West Ham as they attempt to do what no other team has done this season and get the better of Bayer Leverkusen. Can they do enough to keep the tie alive in the second leg?

Your mission, West Ham, should you wish to accept it, is to come away from the Bay Arena tonight with the quarter final tie still live. Expectations are set no higher than that. On the face of it, this would have been an uphill task at the best of times. With key players, in Jarrod Bowen and Edson Alvarez missing, the challenge is all the more formidable.

Leverkusen have been a revelation this season – arguably European club football’s team of the season. Unbeaten in 41 matches across all competitions and their sights firmly set on a historic treble. A first ever Bundesliga title is all but done, ending Bayern Munich’s eleven season run as champions – bad luck, Harry! A German Cup Final appointment at the end of May against second tier strugglers, FC Kaiserslautern, should be a formality. And then there is the Europa League where they stand as second favourites behind Liverpool.

For the Hammers, it is a game where the pragmatism of Moyesball may well have a valid place, at least in theory. In reality, the approach doesn’t have the greatest track record on its travels against the very top teams. And in all honesty, there have been very few stand-out defensive displays – and even fewer clean sheets – from David Moyes team over the past couple of seasons.

There is little comfort to be taken from claims that West Ham are now seasoned Euro campaigners who have a record of showing up in big games. If teels like clutching at straws. The former might be helpful across a campaign but is tempered by most opponents having hailed from the continent’s second tier leagues; the latter has only been seen on rare occasions. It is not a side with a positive big game mentality. Euro wins against Freiburg and Lyon were exciting but they were games we should be winning. Beating Sevilla was arguably the only true example of overcming the odds.

It is not easy to gauge exactly where Leverkusen would sit in a Premier League context; it is surely top three or four on this year’s evidence. The odds are stacked against the Hammers, especially for an away leg. What is needed is one of those extraordinary resilient displays where the footballing gods, officials, VAR, inspired goalkeeping and poor opposition finishing align to deliver an unexpected miracle.

It will be a fascinating contrast in styles. Moyes set in his ways, rigid formation, narrow defence, low block, ambivalent about possession, hoping for a breakaway or set piece to snatch a goal. Alonso, innovative, focused on flexible roles rather than formations, dominating possession, probing, and with multiple options to breakdown opponents. The threat down the flanks by Frimpong and Grimaldo is a huge danger to a cumbersome backline. It promises to be a long night and it is perhaps appropriate that the city is famous for its pharmaceutical industry – we may all need strong medication by the end of the night.

West Ham have a mixed record against German sides in Europe with six wins, six defeats and one draw. Three of those wins came against Freiburg this season with the others against TSV Munich (1965), FC Magdeburg (1966), and Eintracht Frankfurt (1976). Against that, the Hammers have lost to Eintracht Frankfurt three times, Borussia Dortmund twice, and Freiburg once. This will be a first ever competitive meeting with Leverkusen who themselves have an indifferent record against English clubs – having won just four and lost 12 in 21 attempts.

Moyes has few options to play with from his tiny squad for the game. There must be a good chance that he goes with three at the back in a 3-4-2-1 formation that would match up in a way with the hosts. The issue is that none of the ‘possibles’ to play alongside Kurt Zouma and Dinos at the back has played much football in 2024. Moyes will most likely opt for Aaron Cresswell rather than Nayef Aguerd or Angelo Ogbonna although Aguerd’s pace might represent a more sensible choice.

No question that Emerson plays at left wing-back but it is a toss up on the right between Vladimir Coufal and Ben Johnson. Coufal has been quite flaky in recent weeks. I think Johnson shades it in a wing-back role but guess Moyes will stick with the Czech. By default, the middle of the second row has to be filled by Tomas Soucek and James Ward-Prowse. This a huge worry for me as a pairing – lacking in pace and mobility. The only remaining alternative would be out-of-sorts Kalvin Phillips, but he has, reportedly, not travelled to Germany.

This leaves a front three of Lucas Paqueta, Mohammed Kudus, and Michail Antonio. Plenty of attacking potential but the deeper two may spend most of their time defending leaving Antonio isolated. It is possible that Leverkusen will find Antonio’s muscle hard to handle but he rarely has 90 minutes in him these days.

Leverkusen did have a scare in the Europa League Round of 16 when they went two goals down at home in the second leg to Qarabag. The game followed a 2-2 draw in Azerbaijan. They eventually won the game with two goals in added time. Alonso had rotated his squad for that tie but is unlikely to do so against Premier League opposition. Other than that, the hosts have an impressive home record of 19 wins, 2 draws and no defeats in all competitions.

Minimum requirement from tonight is to be no more than a goal down in the tie. Anything worse feels irretrievable against a team so adept at exploiting space. A win or draw would, of course, be incredible – but just seems so improbable. A secondary objective would be for Paqueta and Emerson to avoid the yellow card that would see them miss the second leg. Wirtz from Leverkusen is similarly at risk.

The best suggestion for tonight is a collective appeal to St Jude, the patron saint of desperate situations and lost causes – mixed with a healthy dose of Motes much vaunted resilience. It’s a long shot but it might just work. COYI!

Squad Game – The Challenge: West Ham Players Pushed To Their Limits In Search Of Euro Qualification

David Moyes has slowly painted himself into a corner by relying on just a small, trusted number of his squad. It’s an approach unlikely to sustain both Premier League and Europa League challenges in the coming two weeks.

As another season draws to a close its success (or otherwise) history will judge it on the final outcomes, not in the way they were achieved. As was the case last season, it might have been painful to watch but if there’s something shiny awarded at the end of it, much of the detail will be forgotten. The equivalent of Braveheart winning an Oscar.

With approximately six weeks of the season remaining, there are two obstacles standing between West Ham and failure. There is the ever diminishing possibility that they will claim a European qualification spot through league position, wherever that line is eventually drawn under today’s convoluted rules. And the even remoter possibility, that they make their way to and win the Europa League final in Dublin. Within the next week, the Hammer’s fate on both fronts may be permanently sealed.

Managers will often say they don’t prioritise one competition over another, but we know from past experience that actions speak louder than words. Then there is the unconscious appeal that playing in the later stages of cup competitions will surely have. Intentionally or not, Thursday’s visit to Bayer Leverkusen will be on everyone’s mind prior to today’s Premier League fixture in Wolverhampton.

The demands of an intensive run-in are not helped at West Ham by the small number of players in the squad that the manager is prepared to use and trust. With no squad rotation of note and minimal use of substitutes the consequence is certain players being flogged beyond their limits as the chasing pack look to overtake them. The team bus could even have a bumper sticker on it – Running In – Please Pass.

There was an obvious irony when David Moyes spoke about the difficulty of coping with Edson Alvarez’s suspension due to the club’s small squad size. Completely overlooking that this has been a deliberate strategy of his own making. Pablo Fornals, Said Benrahma, and Thilo Kehrer didn’t go missing in January, they were let go when inadequate playing time finally got to them. They had been alienated in Moyes system of favourites, just as Danny Ings and Maxwell Cornet have been since. The effective size of the squad in the manager’s mind is no more than 13 or 14 players. And the one player that Moyes did elect to sign in January was a defensive midfielder, the same as Alvarez.

It will come as no surprise that West Ham’s use of substitutes is one of lowest in the League. In stats prepared prior to the last international break, they had used an average of 2.79 subs per game. Only Manchester City scored lower at 2.75 – the sole statistic where Moyes can be mentioned in the same breath as Guardiola. In comparison, Brighton used 4.75 subs per game and 13 of 30 clubs exceeded 4.0. Moyes had only used all 5 subs once (in a fit of anger during the heavy defeat at Fulham) and opted for just one change four times – out of the ten times recorded in all Premier League games. The Hammers also had the oldest bench – the players on it that is, not the bench itself – and were last place in both the timing of the first change (67 minutes) and the average time of all substitutions. Over 17% of all West Ham changes happened after the 90^th minute.

There was, however, a first in the Tottenham game, when Moyes made no changes at all. Perhaps chastened by his game changing switch at Newcastle, he opted to stick with what he had rather than risk Kalvin Phillips screwing things up again. In some respects, adopting a more defensive and cautious approach against top teams can make sense. After all, it was obvious Tottenham had few ideas on breaking though a low block. It is when the same tactics are employed against Burnley or Bournemouth that it becomes truly frustrating. On the other hand, fans deserve more to get them off their seats in the heat of a local derby under the lights. It’s fine to say you’re happy with taking four points from Tottenham in retrospect, but it can’t be justification or an intentional gameplan.

I though there were two odd comments from the managers post-match . The first where Postecoglou kept repeating that West Ham are a big side. That’s not really the case, is it? Of the outfield players, only Kurt Zouma, Dinos, and Tomas Soucek are over 6 feet. In fact, it is one of the shortest squads in the league. The second was Moyes claim that his team had played on the front foot. Difficult to see how that stacks up for a side who had only 33% possession. Perhaps he uses a different definition of front foot.

Today, the Hammers meet another side who pooh-pooh the benefits or possession. Despite enjoying slightly more of the ball than West Ham, Wolves fall below West Ham on touches in the opposition area – although both sit in the bottom five for this metric. So, it will be interesting to see who takes control of procedings.

Gary O’Neil has done a fine job in his first season at Wolves. They looked to be in disarray when Lopetegui jumped ship in August, so to be in with a shout for a European place is some achievement. He will again be without Neto and Hwang to face the Hammers but should be able to give starts to Cunha and Dawson. Kilman and Lamina have always impressed when I have watched Wolves and it is side that rarely gives up.

Typically, there’s little point speculating about how West Ham will line-up. It’s always the usual suspects. But with the Leverkusen game on the horizon, there must be concerns with the wisdom of featuring Zouma and Michail Antonio in both games. Angelo Ogbonna or Nayef Aguerd are options to replace Zouma, and the return of Alvarez may prompt a rejig that sees Antonio rested to the bench.

It seems no team wants to make the running in the battle for the minor European placings. It was all fairly inconclusive over Easter except for Chelsea’s win over Manchester United setting them up for a late charge. Of the other clubs involved, Bournemouth have the best form while both West Ham and Wolves have been consistently inconsistent. If the Hammers lose at Molineux it could see them drop into the bottom half of the table by the end of the current round of matches -having played a game more than the other challengers.

Richard provided an update on the projections of the Bennett supercomputer yesterday which describes what West Ham would need to reach the expected Euro qualification target of 57 points. Now, I know it’s never over until the fat lady sings but with just two league wins in 2024 to their name, a top ten finish only looks possible if Fujitsu can go in and edit the tables once the season is finished.

A 1-1 draw today. COYI!

David Moyes And The Game Changing Substitution Fiasco

If Anthony Gordon falls over in the forest and VAR is not there to check it, is it still a penalty? Moyes fearful retreat at St James Park cost West Ham another valuable three points. Will he fare any better against revenge-seeking, top four hopefuls Tottenham Hotspur on Tuesday night?

They’ve long said he was incapable of making game-changing substitutions. But the Moyesiah proved us all wrong on Saturday when, with the wave of a hand, he transformed unassailable lead into calamitous defeat. A sublime act of tactical sorcery. What other top level coach could have achieved that?

The Hammers had responded well to conceding an early penalty. Smartly taken goals by Michail Antonio and Mohammed Kudus – ably assisted by Lucas Paqueta and Jarrod Bowen respectively – had seen them turn the game around and put them in pole position by the break. When Kudus returned the favour for Bowen to make it 3-1 early in the second half- the most clinical of breakaway goals – it should have been game over.

Newcastle heads had dropped, their defence was in disarray, and injuries woes mounted. The hosts still carried a threat going forward but their brittleness at the back meant that all West Ham needed to do was hold theri nerve. Stayed in control, keep doing what they were doing and they pick off the Geordies at will as they became more and more desperate.

Then on 68 minutes disaster struck. The substitute alarm on Moyes phone sounded – his replacements are always a function of time rather than circumstances – to indicate it was time to take off Antonio. What to do? Antonio had run the Toon defence ragged all afternoon. Causing problems and creating space that the craft of Paqueta, Kudus and Bowen was able to exploit. If Antonio needed resting, then surely it had to be a like a like for change. But the Moyesiah had other ideas – that’s just what they would be expecting us to do, he reasoned.

It would not be Ben Johnson this time, as it was against Aston Villa two weeks earlier at the same stage, but the rusty and accident-prone Kalvin Phillips. It’s hard to imagine any player experiencing a more disastrous run of games for a new club but rather than lambasting his individual contribution, let’s consider the impact that the substitution had on the complexion of the game.

No longer was there a menacing threat to stretch and occupy the defence. No more would gaps be created between defenders and midfield which has caused Newcastle problems all season. What Plan B was supposed to be once Antonio was withdrawn was never obvious. In the absence of a plan Paqueta pushed forward into a role where he doesn’t have the pace and where he was removed from the areas where he can do most damage. West Ham could no longer defend from the front or control midfield and so reverted to type; dropping deep and inviting the opposition to attack. It was a decision driven by the manager’s ingrained fear and caution. A clear indication the initiative was now in the hands of Newcastle. It is Moyes 101 and a ploy which has been repeated throughout the season. Outside the bottom three, only Brentford have a worse defensive record than West Ham. What could possibly go wrong? Following the point given away against Villa, three were now being gifted to Newcastle.

Adding to Moyes incompetence, Newcastle received two other strokes of good fortune. The first was the injury to Almiron – himself an earlier introduced substitute – to be replaced by regular West Ham nemesis, Harvey Barnes. The second was the disgraceful officiating from the combined efforts of Rob Jones (referee) and David Coote (VAR). My own view is that both penalty decisions were wrong. I don’t just mean they were harsh calls – they were a scandalous interpretation of the laws with both ‘offences’ engineered by the actions of Anthony Gordon. Both were cheating – a known characteristic of how Eddie Howe now plays the game – and way outside the spirit of the game. Even if it could be argued that there was no ‘clear and obvious’ reason to reverse the on-field decision for the first, then the same logic should have been applied to the second. There was no reason for VAR to intervene. Officialdom once again going out of its way to spoil the game and big up their part. Of course, Phillips shouldn’t have dallied with his clearance but how was that ever an obvious penalty?

Because it was overshadowed by the penalty calls, there was minimal post-match analysis about an earlier incident where Dan Burn bundled into the back of Kudus. Had Burn not been the last defender I’m certain a foul would have been given – it was never shoulder to shoulder – but Jones took the easy way out to avoid making a red card call.

On Tuesday, West Ham welcome top four chasing Tottenham to the London Stadium for an extravagantly timed 8:15 pm kick-off. With Edson Alvarez still suspended and Phillips shot to pieces, the task of protecting the West Ham rearguard will again fall to the flimsy partnership of Tomas Soucek and James Ward-Prowse. You have to fear the worst against what will be sustained visitor attacks. We are certainly capable of scoring against them but not outscoring them – unless an exceptional local derby spirit is unexpectedly discovered.

The Achilles heal for West Ham is the absence of depth in the squad. There are so few options to choose from that competition for places doesn’t really exist. If the West Ham starting XI is top 7 or 8 quality, the squad depth is the lower end of mid-table. A clear case of mismanagement from the manager and board.

Still, let’s cross our fingers and hope for a miracle anyway. COYI!

West Ham travel to Newcastle in the early Saturday kick-off with both teams still in the mix for a European place next season.

I enjoyed Geoff’s article published yesterday as always and smiled at his made-up statistic that West Ham haven’t won away in an early Saturday kick off against a team in stripes. How can he have forgotten our Division One trip to Huddersfield on Saturday 17^th January 1925 when in an early kick off we came away with a 2-1 victory with goals from our all time leading goalscorer Vic Watson (326 goals) and Jimmy Ruffell, fourth on the all-time list (166 goals)? Only Geoff Hurst (249) and John Dick (177) were in the same league as those two when it came to scoring goals for West Ham.

I’m not making up that game – Huddersfield did wear stripes, it was a Saturday and we won the game 2-1. I’m not certain regarding the early kick off, but I’ve seen pictures of the Leeds Road ground (where they played until 1994) with floodlights being put up in 1963, and therefore assume that a mid-January kick-off in 1925 must have been early as it would have been too dark to kick off at 3pm. By the way, that game was even more remarkable in that it was Huddersfield’s only defeat in their last 27 games of the 1924-25 season when they finished up as Division One champions, the second of three consecutive top flight titles, the first club to achieve that feat.

Some famous games that I remember against today’s opponents, Newcastle, include a 5-5 draw in 1960 with five different West Ham goalscorers. They certainly knew how to score goals in those days. That season we finished 16^th (out of 22) and scored 77 goals but conceded 88!

In April 1968 just after Easter we beat them 5-0 with a Trevor Brooking hat-trick in his first season in the team, which I believe to be his only ever hat-trick in his 528 games for us. Unless of course you know different?

In a Division Two match in late March 1979 we again beat them 5-0 with three of the five goals coming from our full backs, John McDowell with two, and Frank Lampard.

I’ve written before about our 8-1 victory against them in our record-breaking season of 1985-86. The game was notable for an Alvin Martin hat-trick scored against three different goalkeepers. Glenn Roeder was playing for Newcastle on that Monday night in April 1986.

In January 2011 (in the middle of the Avram Grant season when we were relegated) we lost 5-0 at St James Park with a Leon Best hat-trick and a goal from Kevin Nolan, who came to us in the following summer and helped us to promotion the next season. It was only 13 years ago but some names of players wearing claret and blue that day (either starting or on the bench) – Tal Ben Haim, Radoslav Kovac, Frederic Piquionne, Zavon Hines, Victor Obinna, Ruud Boffin, Valon Behrami, Pablo Barrera. Do you remember all of them?

On 15^th August 2021 we won 4-2 at St James Park in an early kick off (the first game of the season?), I think Newcastle were wearing stripes, but it didn’t quite meet Geoff’s criteria as it was a Sunday not a Saturday. We came from behind twice with goals from Cresswell, Benrahma, Soucek and Antonio.

Since that game three of the four meetings have been drawn including the 2-2 draw at the London Stadium in October. The other game was an embarrassing 5-1 home defeat in April last year.

At least the international breaks are now over for another season – how I do hate how they interrupt the season! I rarely watch internationals outside tournaments as friendlies are meaningless with endless substitutions spoiling the ‘entertainment’. I made an exception this week to watch Jarrod Bowen starting and starring. Surely he will make the England squad for the Euros, as understudy to Saka on the right?

The Moyes debate continues to rumble on with fans on social media groups tearing into each other with opposing views of should he stay or should he go. If we do opt for a new manager next season I’d love to see us go for Kieran McKenna who has performed wonders at Ipswich in this season and last. After bringing them up from League One in his first season in charge, their record this season has been superb, keeping up at the top with the ‘big boys’ who received their parachute payments (Leicester, Leeds and Southampton). Ipswich have lost just five of their last 58 games playing a brand of football pleasing to the eye.

I live in Bury St Edmunds in Suffolk where Ipswich are the most supported club locally. The ‘buzz’ created in the last couple of seasons is quite something. He has first class coaching credentials as assistant to Mourinho at Manchester United and I believe he will continue to be one of the up and coming coaches / managers in the years to come. Some believe we should go for a ‘name’ such as Potter who is always banded about. McKenna for me.

Newcastle have a long injury list for this game, although some are due back. We will be under strength too with Alvarez suspended (we’ve never won a game this season when he hasn’t been playing) and Paqueta, Aguerd and Kudus are apparently being assessed or monitored. The Geordies have a relatively poor defensive record but they do know how to score goals. They are one of the teams still in the mix for a European place next season. I never feel that confident when we go up to the North-East so I won’t hold my breath for a victory to match the one on the opening day of the 2021/22 season. But I’ll forecast a high scoring draw, although perhaps not 5-5! What are the chances?

High Toon: Are West Ham brave enough to see off injury ravaged Geordies in Saturday’s early kick-off?

Premier League football is back once again as the Hammers face a succession of six season defining games in the next twenty days. It all kicks-off at Newcastle!

Where were we? Football’s all about stop and start these days isn’t. Like waking suddenly and not being sure whether it’s a VAR review you’re waiting for or it’s the middle of another international break. I feel about as confused as David Moyes looks on the sidelines when his team have just gone a goal behind and he is thinking about what game changing substitution to make – “Ben Johnson for Lucas Paqueta, that should do it!”

With all the interruptions we now have, the need for a Recap button like on Netflix is becoming all the more necessary. I always believed Recaps were intended for Americans with short attention spans due to the regularity of commercial breaks. Now I am starting to see the point. Fortunately, we have the clickbait fan-sites to rely on where every story has five or six paragraphs of ‘season recap’ before the big headline reveal at the very end. The one where a reliable journalist provides a major update that should West Ham win the Europa League, then the manager may be offered a new contract. Who knew?

So, at the end of the last episode, West Ham were left hanging on to 7^th place in the Premier League and occupying one of the coveted European qualification slots. Except that each of the four teams below would overtake them if they were to win their games in hand. Gripping stuff! There now follows a run of six games in 20 days which will play a large part in determining the season’s outcome and the club’s immediate future. By the end of those matches, the Hammers could still be 7^th and in a Europa League semi-final; have slipped down to 11^th and bowed out of Europe; or stumbled along somewhere in between. Personally, I am at the lower end of expectations.

The upcoming league fixtures include two of the other teams targeting 7^th place – Newcastle and Wolves; one looking for Champions League qualification – Tottenham; and an unpredictable side who are close to the top of the Premier League form table – Fulham. It’s a tough run to juggle around the two-legged Bayer Leverkusen showdown with just a comically thin squad at your disposal – a squad whose numbers were deliberately run down.

The first of the matches is the weekend’s long trip north to Newcastle for the early Saturday midday kick-off. The Geordies recent form has been as indifferent as the Hammers with both teams having taken eight points from their last six matches. The two teams have the worst defensive records in the top ten and the hosts have been riddled with injuries. In theory it is evenly matched.

But we should be well aware by now of the Moyesiah’s mindset. Newcastle are a big club in his eyes, while his Hammers are wee, sleekit, cowrin, tim’rous beasties – prepared to be overawed and uninspired. The only option is to ramp up the low-block setting to maximum and hope for the best. That most other clubs have identified the Geordies defensive weaknesses – the dangerously high line, the space between midfield and defenders, Dan Burn, the reticence of stand-in keeper, Dubravka to sweep outside his box – will likely be lost on Moyes.

What is needed to beat Newcastle is bravery, not caution. For all their defensive frailties, only the top four have outscored them this season, and they have scored in every home league fixture so far. Is a plan built on shutting them out going to work? If we should score first, will the usual tactic of retreating deeper and deeper make any sense? The best laid plans of Moyes and men often go catastrophically wrong.

Not helping the West Ham cause is the enforced absence of Edson Alvarez, serving a two game ban for picking up ten yellow cards. A good effort by Edson who trails only Palhinha of Fulham in the top flight yellow card stakes. In his absence, the onus shifts to the desolate Kalvin Phillips as the only potential active ball-winning force in the centre of midfield. Little chance of either Tomas Soucek or James Ward-Prowse fulfilling that role. Whatever happened to that Flynn Downes?

The other doubt is Mohammed Kudus who pulled out the Ghana squad for their friendlies against Uganda and Nigeria. Hopefully, this was precautionary measure (or because he didn’t fancy it) rather than a real injury. Assuming he is fit it should be the same team that started against Villa other than the Phillips for Alvarez switch. If Kudus is out, then JWP comes in somewhere.

It was good to see Jarrod Bowen put in his best showing yet in an England jersey on Tuesday. It should certainly improved his chances of winning an all-expenses paid summer break to the Euro benches – as long as the German’s haven’t already laid out their towels on it. More importantly, we need Jarrod to get his Premier League scoring boots back on. He remains two goals short of matching Paolo Di Canio’s record of 16 in a season, with only nine matches left to do it in. Bowen has only scored in one league game in 2024, although that was the Brentford hat-trick.

Saturday’s hosts have a long list of injuries. Botman, Joelinton, Pope, Wilson, and Miley are all injured while Tonali is on long term suspendsion. There are also doubts over the fitness of Trippier, Barnes, and Livramento and late tests will be required. The question springs to mind as to whether high rates of injuries are simply bad luck or a reflection of training methods that are far too intensive to sustain for long periods.

I was once quite a fan of Eddie Howe in his Bournemouth days where he did an amazing job in getting them promoted to the Premier League for the first time. But there is something cynical about him – and his henchman Jason Tindall – that is difficult to warm to, despite a positive approach to how the game is played. When Howe is inevitably sacked before Newcastle win any trophies, I hope he doesn’t end up at the London Stadium. Never trust a man whose face is way too small for his head.

In the circumstances this is a winnable game, but only with the right attitude and positive approach. If our forward players are on song they should be able pull Newcastle all over the place. But past performances have seen attacking intent only in short flashes, rarely sustained over 90 minutes. Playing on the front foot from start to finish doesn’t appear to exist in the manager’s toolkit. The Moyesball approach relies heavily on opponents fluffing their lines in front of goal, or man-of-the-match performances from Alphonse Areola and VAR.

West Ham have never won away in an early Saturday kick-off against a team playing in stripes. I can see that run continuing this weekend. Actually, I just made that last bit up but I’m sure Peter Drury will know the answer. A score draw, I think. COYI!

Aston Villa visit the London Stadium to face West Ham in the Claret and Blue derby

Before last week’s article I developed a programme to anticipate where West Ham would finish in this season’s Premier League final table. This week I provide an update based upon what happened last weekend, including our unfortunate two points dropped in the 2-2 draw with Burnley at the London Stadium.

There are probably six teams still in the reckoning to finish sixth or seventh in the final table and all now have ten games remaining apart from Chelsea with eleven. I have discounted the top five in the Premier League as I believe they have enough points and decent enough run-ins to maintain those places. The teams from 6^th to 11^th are now:

6. Manchester United – 47 points (28 games)
7. West Ham – 43 points (28)
8. Brighton – 42 points (28)
9. Wolves – 41 points (28)
10. Newcastle – 40 points (28)
11. Chelsea – 39 points (27)

You may recall that I considered the degree of difficulty in the remaining fixtures for each side based upon the current position in the league table of their remaining opponents. The degree of difficulty factor suggested that Newcastle have the easiest run-in.

I then took it further and predicted the results of each teams remaining games with a formula based upon fixtures remaining, categorised into teams being faced with a current position of 1-3, 4-5, 6-11, 12-17, and 18-20 given different weightings, whether or not the remaining games were home or away, and the results when the sides met earlier in the season. Additional factors included games against the top 5 teams, and games against each other (i.e. the 6 teams being considered).

Some of the results last weekend were as expected, the only ones that were not were West Ham who were expected to beat Burnley, and Newcastle who were expected to draw at Chelsea based on the criteria used. This therefore adjusts the forecast for the final standings at the end of the season which is now:

6. Manchester United – 61 points
7. Newcastle – 56 points
8. Chelsea – 56 points
9. Wolves – 55 points
10. West Ham – 55 points
11. Brighton – 51 points

Chelsea have now risen to a predicted eighth placed finish whilst West Ham have fallen to tenth. As I wrote last time, it’s just a bit of fun, and my gut feeling is that perhaps tenth is just about right. Football matches are notoriously unpredictable to forecast which stems from various factors like team dynamics, player and overall team form, European and FA Cup games to play, the Thursday / Sunday mix which is often an issue, injuries, and even unpredictable events during a game, as well as all sorts of other miscellaneous factors.

I noted this week that the Opta Supercomputer forecast is that West Ham will finish eighth on 55.47 points. (I’m not sure where we’d get the 0.47 points from!). Their programming must have some similarities to mine based on their figures. I will look back at the end of the season to compare The Bennett model versus the Opta Supercomputer at this stage to make a comparison.

This is how Opta see the Premier League ending up…

6. Manchester United – 62.41
7. Newcastle United – 58.35
8. West Ham United – 55.47
9. Chelsea – 54.84
10. Brighton & Hove Albion – 54.61

On Thursday night we gave Freiburg a bit of a thrashing which on the face of it would compare the relative merits of the Premier League versus the Bundesliga. Seventh in the Premier League were shown to be massively superior to eighth in the Bundesliga based upon this last 16 tie. This was also a significant victory for English clubs who are now on course to claim a fifth spot in next season’s Champions League.

Two additional performance places are up for grabs due to the new format in 2024-25. They will go to the countries with the best average performance in all the European competitions this season. Before Thursday night Italy were top with Germany second and England third, but our win meant that England narrowed the gap on Germany.

Coefficient Rankings:

1. Italy – 17.714 (4 teams remaining)
2. Germany – 16.357 (3 teams remaining)
3. England – 16.250 (5 teams remaining)
4. France – 14.750 (3 teams remaining)
5. Spain – 14.437 (3 teams remaining

We’ve now drawn another German side in the quarter finals and this time it will be much tougher as we face the might of Bayer 04 Leverkusen, the runaway leaders in Germany who have won 21 and drawn 4 of their 25 games, being the only side in the top 5 leagues in Europe to still be unbeaten at this stage of the season.

Having said that they came mightily close to being eliminated from the competition on Thursday night when they trailed Karabakh (of Azerbaijan) 2-1 on the night and 4-3 on aggregate as the tie reached the 90^th minute of the second leg. Leverkusen then scored twice in the time that was added to ensure progression. That game surely gives us some hope in the quarter final tie doesn’t it?

Also, if England get the second spot in the ‘performance table’ and the FA Cup winners finish in the top seven, then it would appear that England would have five places in next season’s Champions League, two places in the Europa League and the team finishing eighth would take the Europa Conference League spot. All the more reason to continue to push for a high enough spot in the Premier League, apart from the kudos and the prize money on offer of course.

And what about the Kudus goal where he ran from the middle of our half, dribbled through the Freiburg team on an incredible run then clinically finished with his so-called weaker foot? That got me thinking of the best goals I’ve seen us score at the London Stadium. In no particular order it joins Payet’s amazing dribble through the Middlesbrough defence, and Andy Carroll’s wonderful volley against Crystal Palace. There are others to consider I’m sure. What ones have I missed?

Great goals that they were, none of them compare in my eyes to Martin Peters’ goal against Leicester in November 1968, Trevor Sinclair’s goal against Derby on Boxing Day 2001, or Harry Redknapp’s goal v QPR, also in November 1968 (just two weeks before Martin Peters goal).

I’ve written before about the 1968/69 season and a golden period of four consecutive and absolutely brilliant entertaining games at Upton Park in the Autumn of 1968. When we faced Sunderland on October 19^th we’d come off the back of a run of nine winless games. We ended that run thrashing Sunderland 8-0 (the game where Geoff Hurst scored six). A fortnight later in a great game we defeated QPR 4-3, which included the Redknapp goal I referred to above, and a magnificent Bobby Moore goal frequently shown on the screens at Upton Park before games. The game with the Martin Peters wonder goal came in a 4-0 win over Leicester two weeks after that. And finally move on another fortnight for a 2-1 win over Manchester City, the first scored by Geoff Hurst, a near post header from a Martin Peters cross, and the second a carbon copy but this time a near post header by Martin Peters from a Geoff Hurst cross. They could do it both ways around and in this match they did. Those were the days. Wonderful memories.

As the game today is against Aston Villa an abiding memory from fixtures against them is a penalty awarded to us in the last minute of the FA Cup quarter final in March 1980. Up stepped Ray Stewart, the perfect penalty taker when under the greatest pressure to score. He slammed it high into the net in front of the South Bank, we won the game 1-0 and went on to win the FA Cup, the last team to do so as a second-tier side. We’ve had some great penalty takers, in no particular order the best ones in my opinion were Ray Stewart, Julian Dicks, Geoff Hurst, Mark Noble, Johnny Byrne, John Bond, and Paolo Di Canio.

Aston Villa are one of those teams that we have beaten more often than been defeated by. The recent record is strongly in our favour. The last 11 meetings (since and including Boxing Day 2015) – West Ham have won six, four have been drawn, and Villa have only won once – that was this season when they won 4-1 last October. The overall record in history shows West Ham with 45 wins, Villa with 39, and 35 draws.

Two worrying statistics: We have won four and drawn four of our last eight home league games against Villa, and Villa have only ever beaten us once both home and away in a single season in the Premier League. How often do impressive runs like that come to an end?

Our record in Sunday games that follow Thursday evening games is not the best but at least this time Villa are in the same boat, as they had a Europa Conference League game on the same night that we put five past Freiburg when they beat Ajax 4-0 to win by that aggregate score and progress into their first European Quarter Final for 25 years. We will be hoping to improve on our record of dropping points in five of the seven Sunday games that have followed a Europa League game.

Villa’s impressive England striker Watkins is always a threat but he is battling to recover from a gashed knee to be fit for the game. Their captain John McGinn is banned following the reckless tackle last weekend that got him sent off against Tottenham. Emerson has been missing for a couple of games but he may be fit to resume at left back. Cornet is the only definite absentee – apparently he has a hamstring injury. Will we miss him? Is he still with us?

I wonder if Danny Ings will get a run out at some stage? If by chance he scores a goal he would become only the third player to score a Premier League goal against four of his former teams – Peter Crouch and Nicolas Anelka are the others. We will hope that Lucas Paqueta starts of course and has calmed down following his substitution in the week – all our 12 league wins this season have come with him in the starting eleven whereas we’ve failed to win any of the seven games where he hasn’t been involved.

Villa are impressive going forward with only Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal scoring more goals in the league so far this season. I cannot see them failing to score which will mean that we will need to be positive, and all four of Kudus, Paqueta, Bowen and a fit Antonio will need to be firing at the same level as they were on Thursday night. Can we win the game? I hope so but it won’t be easy. I’ll go for a 2-2 draw for the second weekend in a row.