Category: Preview

It was a poor performance at Burnley, which means that we have lost two of our last three games. On the other hand, when I previewed the Newcastle game at the beginning of December, I was (admittedly, tongue in cheek) looking for 24 points from the next eight games. Perhaps I could have put it another way. If we could get 15 points from the seven games leading up to the Brighton fixture at the beginning of 2019, how many fans would have taken that? Or even, if in the month of December we could get three more points than Manchester City in the seven games to be played by the end of the year, who would be happy with that, especially with the (usual) lengthy injury list that we have?

Whatever the reasons for what happened at Burnley, and I’m sure that tiredness was a contributory factor, if not as important a part as has been said, then if we can bounce back with a win tonight then all will be forgotten for the time being. Wolves and Watford stand in our way of reclaiming eighth place, and even a point may be enough to take us into the top half of the table, as two of our adversaries in the race to finish seventh (Bournemouth and Watford) meet on the South Coast tonight. I’d like to see that game end in a draw, as well as the Wolves v Palace game. In fact I always like to see teams that we are in direct competition with losing or drawing their games for the benefit of our fortunes in the league.

Ironically, Brighton are not renowned for their performances away from the Amex, especially when they travel to London, where they have lost seven of their last eight games in the capital. Of course the exception to this is the 3-0 drubbing they gave us last season at the London Stadium. This is only their second season back in the top flight, but manager Chris Hughton (much under-rated in my opinion) has done an excellent job.

In the three games played so far since their return, the Seagulls have beaten us on each occasion, but given our recent run against flying creatures (magpies, bluebirds, eagles) let us hope that we can add a fourth bird to the list tonight. Oh, for a repeat of that glorious sunny afternoon in April 2012 when Ricardo Vaz Te scored some wonderful goals, and we trounced Brighton 6-0 in a Championship fixture on our way back to the Premier League.

If fit (and not too tired) I’d like to see a triple A front line tonight of Antonio, Anderson and Arnie. In midfield I’d like to see Snodgrass, Rice and Obiang. And if Zabaleta is fit, then I’d like to see him take his place alongside Diop, Ogbonna, and Cresswell. My player of the season, Fabianski (just shading Rice) will continue in goal, although I assume Adrian will get a run out in the Cup next week.

It won’t be easy against an Albion side that are well organised, and have taken four points from their last two games against Everton and Arsenal, after a run of three successive defeats. It would be good to get off to a quick start and score early on. But I’ve been racking my brains trying to remember the last time we scored a goal at home in the first half of a game, and despite our excellent recent run, I don’t think we’ve scored in the first 45 minutes of a match at the London Stadium for two months now, since the win over Burnley on 3 November.

Perhaps today we can put that right? I’ll go for a 3-1 win.

For those still counting, today is the ninth day of Christmas and the notion of nine ladies dancing might bring back nostalgic memories of the Hammerettes strutting their half-time stuff to MC Hammer’s U Can’t Touch This at Upton Park.  But that is all in the past whereas today is about new beginnings as West Ham welcome Brighton and Hove Albion to the London Stadium for the opening game of 2019.  A new year brings with it renewed feelings of optimism; the opening of the transfer window has us dreaming of exciting new recruits to bolster the squad; and a reset of the yellow card count allows players added scope to hack, lunge, tug and dive knowing that the spectre of suspension no longer hangs over their head.

Brighton have become something of a bogey team for West Ham and will be looking to claim their fourth successive Premier League victory against the Hammers.  In fact, West Ham have only won one of the six top flight games against the Seagulls – a 2-1 victory (Cottee, Dickens) back in March 1983.  It was the consequences of the demonstrations at last season’s home fixture with Brighton, however, that prompted the Board to extend their previously short arms deeper into their pockets during the summer, finally employ a decent manager and take a welcome step away from Twitter.

Depending how you want to look at it, West Ham have won an in-form five from the last seven or are on the slide with two defeats in the last three.  The common denominator in those two defeats was an opposition playing with aggression and intensity; it would be no surprise to see the same approach from Brighton tonight.  Manuel Pellegrini suggested that fatigue was the major contributor to the disappointing showing at Burnley but it seemed as much about poor attitude and a lack of desire to me.  Not that the effects of the festive programme with a squad badly hit by injuries didn’t play a part – just that it was not the whole story.

West Ham will hope to welcome back Pablo Zabaleta in defence but, with few other alternatives available, the rest of the back-line will be as you were.   That leaves Angelo Ogbonna once again standing-in for the missing Fabian Balbuena and it will be fingers crossed that he will is more alert than he was at Turf Moor.  I had an old computer that was like Ogbonna.  It was fine when you first started it up but gradually over time its performance became slow and erratic until the only option was to re-boot.  Hopefully, he has been cleared down, reformatted and had a firmware upgrade installed over the last few days to increase power.  Issa Diop’s performances have also suffered in Balbuena’s absence and both will need to be on their toes tonight.

In midfield, Pedro Obiang must surely return as a replacement for the struggling Mark Noble, who is looking well past his best before date right now.  Assuming Robert Snodgrass has recovered from his knock, the rest of the midfield should be unchanged.  The wild card is Samir Nasri who is reported to be available for the game following his signing for the Hammers at the expiration of his doping ban.  It would be a stretch to expect him starting the game (he has only played eight times since the start of the 2017 season) but can see him getting twenty minutes or so from the bench. At least he shouldn’t be tired!

Marko Arnautovic will lead the attack again and his presence is essential to take some of the spotlight (and attention) from opposition defenders away from Felipe Anderson.  If other teams decide to double up on Anderson then it is up to the other players to exploit the extra space made available.  My preferred choice as a partner for Arnie would be Michail Antonio who looks to have regained much of his appetite in recent weeks.  Ideally, it will be Andy Carroll and Xande Silva on the bench with Lucas Perez safely at home watching the new season of Luther.

Brighton are at completely the other end of the injury league table to West Ham.  Their only reported injury is Colombian bogeyman, Jose Izquierdo, and even then he may be available for selection today.  They will, however, be missing Mat Ryan and Alireza Jahanbakhsh who are both on international duty at the AFC Asian Cup.  In addition to Izquierdo, ageing striker Glenn Murray also revels in his games against the Hammers.

Referee Chris Kavanagh from Lancashire makes his second West Ham appearance of the season – the first was in the drawn game at Huddersfield in November.  He has his fair share of yellow cards this term but just the one red – Maddison of Leicester against Brighton.

I heard West Ham boss Manuel Pellegrini’s comments about the scheduling during the festive period – if that’s a problem then he shouldn’t have taken the job.

Lawro on Pellegrini

Despite having a dig at Pellegrini concerning the busy festive schedule, Lawro expects West Ham to return to winning ways with a 2-0 win.  Paul Merson is going for exactly the same result and score.  I am expecting to see a positive reaction following the disappointment at Burnley.  Brighton will be well organised as usual and even though they are not good travellers this will be another stern test.  Apparently, January is West Ham’s worst performing month for Premier League wins but having watched a poor Everton – Leicester game yesterday there is every reason to keep our sights on the ‘best of the rest’ title.  It might ultimately turn out to be unrealistic but there is nothing wrong with setting challenging and ambitious targets.  West Ham to win 2-1.

When the referee Craig (I didn’t see it) Pawson blew the final whistle shortly before 10 pm on Thursday evening, the curtain was brought down on the first half of the Premier League season. 190 matches played and 190 to go. The midpoint is almost always reached at some time between when we sit down for our turkey and pudding on Christmas Day, and when the decorations come down on Twelfth Night at the beginning of the next calendar year.

And didn’t we bring the first half of our season to an end in some style. Hands up if you thought after four games had elapsed and we were pointless, that we would be sitting in ninth place in the table at this stage, with a points tally that was closer to a Champions League qualification place than the bottom three. Add to that a (typical West Ham?) squad ravaged by injuries, then our position is all the more remarkable.

Even when we lost at home to Watford last week, I didn’t hear anyone blaming the board or the manager or the stadium. Most shrugged their shoulders. Never mind, we’ll just have to win at Southampton on Thursday evening. And so we did with two splendid goals from the “ever coming to terms with the Premier League” record signing Felipe Anderson. The first was a splendid shot from outside the area, despite the distraction of poor positioning by the referee. The second was a goal that we scored after breaking from a corner at Boult-like breakneck speed to score within about ten seconds of Southampton’s corner being taken, expertly finished off by our new Brazilian. It was reminiscent of goals that I’ve seen us concede in recent seasons from the likes of Arsenal and Manchester City, which made it even more pleasing to note that we now have players with pace ourselves.

I thought that the team played well in all positions and heads didn’t go down when the Saints put up a contender for the season’s scrappiest goal. As it went in it didn’t look right and I felt sure that it should be disallowed but I didn’t really know why. Fabianski had performed miracles to keep it out (as he does consistently in every game), and we were unlucky that the referee was unable to see the ball punched into our net. Never mind now, all’s well that ends well, and we justifiably won the game against an in-form Southampton team.

After the six games played yesterday we have fallen to eleventh but a win today would lift us up to the dizzy heights of seventh. That’s right, top of Premier League 2 if you discount the elite top six who occupy those places regularly. And that is exactly where our initial aim should be. To finish the best of the rest. Our competitors for that spot are likely to be Wolves, Everton, Watford and Leicester, and it was good that only the first named of that quartet won yesterday, surprisingly beating our unpopular North London neighbours. Many of our fans relished that result on social media, but I took another view, and looking at the bigger picture I would have preferred a draw in that game to help our own position in the league table.

Burnley are in big trouble, unlike last season, and even in the unlikely event of them beating us today, they would still be in the bottom three. Bookmakers make us even money favourites to win today, which is almost unheard of when we are the away team. Burnley are approaching 3/1 with 23/10 for the draw.

Correct score odds for the most popular scores are:

1-1: 11/2; 0-1: 13/2; 1-2: 15/2; 0-2: 17/2; 0-0: 9/1; 1-0: 10/1; 2-1: 10/1; 2-2: 11/1.

First goalscorer odds show Chicarito and Arnautavic as favourites but are they fit enough to play? At the time of writing this piece I don’t know. Based upon recent form which shows that Burnley have lost six of their last seven games, and we have won five of our last six, then this should be easy. But having watched our team for sixty years now I know that no game is easy, as I’ve seen us slip up so many times in this position. But providing the legs aren’t too weary, with this game coming not much more than sixty hours after the last one ended, then I’m looking for us to make it six wins from seven. We’ve already smashed our record for points gained in a calendar month with 15, so let us hope that figure has risen to 18 by shortly after 4 o’clock this afternoon.

The only time I have ever read anything negative about Sir Trevor Brooking was the account of a fan who encountered the entire West Ham team on the London bound platform of Southampton Central station after a game at The Dell back in December 1971.  Perhaps disillusioned after scoring but then being substituted by Dave Llewellyn in a 3-3 draw, Brooking was the only player who refused to autograph the then 12-year-old’s match programme.  I don’t suppose, for a minute, that the team still travel by train to Southampton but was speculating as to whether the reason for only six substitutes on Thursday night was because Karen Brady had not bought enough Supersaver tickets (or collected enough Persil tokens) to get seats for the whole squad.    Surely, even with the club’s lengthy injury list, there were other young players available who would have benefited from a first team match-day experience!

The decision to bounce the West Ham match at St Mary’s to the day after Boxing Day means that the Hammers continue to bat second during the holiday round of games.  With the dust having settled on all of the Saturday matches there is now an opportunity for our boys to leap into seventh spot of the Premier League going into the New Year; a state of affairs that would have seemed fanciful in the first few weeks of the season.  The ‘best of the rest’ tussle is usually an ever changing competition but ourselves, Wolves, Everton and, maybe, Leicester look to be the most likely contenders.  Hopefully, any ambition that exists will have more staying power than a Tottenham title challenge.

Ironically, today’s opponents, Burnley, were the best of the rest from last season but in a complete reversal of fortunes now find themselves as the weakest but one link in the Premier League table.  It was always destined to be difficult for a club of Burnley’s limited resources to sustain any momentum but the speed of their decline has been surprising.  With Sean Dyche a graduate of the Fat Sam School Of Dour Percentage Football it is odd to see Burnley so porous in defence.  After a run of poor results, Dyche will be looking to get his players fired up for today’s game while ensuring that defensive discipline is maintained.  Today’s tasks for the Hammers will be to match Burnley physically, effectively repel their set piece aerial threat and find a way through or around a crowded defence.

Of the ten first team players who were absent in midweek, Pablo Zabaleta and Marko Arnautovic are reportedly to be assessed in late fitness tests, while Javier Hernandez is regarded as a major doubt.  All the other invalids are said to be definitely unavailable.

If Zabaleta has recovered from illness he will most probably be the one defensive change from the Southampton game in place of Michail Antonio.  Elsewhere, Felipe Anderson, Declan Rice and Robert Snodgrass are certain starters but after that selection becomes more problematic – either due to uncertainty over availability or failure to impress.  Antonio deserves to keep a starting berth but where is it best to slot him in?  Will Manuel Pellegrini want to start with both or only one out of Mark Noble and Pedro Obiang – each have their particular strengths but neither are able to fully orchestrate play, pull the midfield strings or switch play intelligently on a consistent basis.  None of Lucas Perez, Grady Diangana or Andy Carroll did anything on Thursday that would stake a claim for a starting place: Perez doesn’t work hard enough; Carroll looked out of control; and Diangana needs to develop far greater strength before he can be considered for anything other than cameo roles.

In an ideal world, I would love to see the return of Arnautovic but fear it is too soon for him to be risked.  There has been a lot of talk about Anderson being the new Payet but we do not need to become a one-man team once again; Arnie is well placed to divert some of that pressure.  Perhaps a front three of Anderson, Arnautovic and Antonio would be a fearsome combination – at least the triple A’s shouldn’t run out of energy!

Burnley are likely to be without Brady, Lennon, Defour (all injured) and Lowton, who is serving a one match suspension.  They will select two from their range of identikit strikers in an attempt to intimidate the West Ham defence.

By the time the next Hammer’s game comes around, West Ham may well have added Samir Nasri to their squad.  If that happens it will be interesting to see how he is deployed – more likely as a deep lying playmaker rather than in an attacking wide midfield role which was more typical at Arsenal and Manchester City.  Nasri is not a long term solution but he could be a short-term fix to an obvious gap in the make-up of the team.

Today’s referee is David Coote from Nottingham.  He is a new one on me although he was, apparently, the fourth official at St Mary’s in the week.  This will be only his fifth Premier League appointment of the season.

Lawro appears to have got stuck in a loop predicting 2-0 defeats for West Ham whereas Merson continues to be generally supportive, going for 3-1 away win.  In a table based on Lawro’s predictions to date, West Ham would be in 15^th place with 18 points, below both Fulham and Burnley.  The Hammers have already broken their own record for most Premier League points in December and a sixth win of the month would extend that tally even further.  I don’t see this be a free-flowing open game but if/ when West Ham get their noses in front anything could happen.  A 2-0 win, first double of the season and sitting proudly in seventh place would make for a very happy new year in my world.

I know that it is tempting fate to count your turkeys before they hatch and by making bold predictions , but if there is any time of the season to be jolly then this is surely it.  “Oh what fun it’s been to see West Ham win away” over the past few weeks and just as enjoyable to put together a run at the London Stadium!.  The bells have been well and truly jingling as the Hammers glided smoothly into the top half of the table. And what fun it is to finally have a manager whose first priority is to win the game rather than not to lose it.

It is not just the four straight wins that is cause for optimism, but the overall record since that difficult opening to the season: twenty-four points from thirteen games is a commendable return for any team outside the top two.  And even though experience foretells of disappointments between now and the end of the season, it is a refreshing change to go into games with a touch of swagger, a stocking full of confidence and wild dreams of success (and I don’t mean Isaac!)

Of course, there are no easy games in the Premier League (well, not now that Mourinho has left Manchester United) and Watford will be no pushovers.  The Hornets had a flying start to the season, experienced something of a stutter but got back to winning ways last weekend.  They have very fine players in Pereyra, Doucouré and Holebas while Deulofeu, on his day, is the type of player that typically causes problems for a West Ham defence that remains vulnerable down both flanks.

Under head coach, Javi Gracia (a former Malaga manager like Manuel Pellegrini and surely due a Vicarage Road long service award anytime soon) the Hornets play a pacey, incisive passing game and there will be no room for complacency or that trademark slow start to the game.  Watford do not have a strong away record, however, having won only three on the road in their last twenty attempts.  A third successive win at the London Stadium for the Hammers can hopefully make it a bleak mid-winter for the visitors.

The afternoon also sees an appropriate seasonal return of two ex-West Ham pantomime villains in Scott Duxbury and Domingos Quina (oh, no it doesn’t –editor!)  Duxbury was a leading light in the infamous mismanaged Tevez affair while Quina was a troublesome former academy player who has been tipped for great things in the game – a modern day Ravel Morrison, perhaps.

With little change in the West Ham injury situation, Pellegrini has limited room for manouevre in his team selection, even though he may be considering the need to rest the ageing legs of Pablo Zabaleta and Mark Noble during the busy holiday schedule.  Apart from that it is the usual conundrum of who partners Javier Hernandez up front and who plays at left back.  With Andy Carroll still lacking match fitness (and Lucas Perez not being very good) it is probable that Michail Antonio will deservedly keep his place in attack rather than being asked to cover at right back.

The Aaron Cresswell or Arthur Masuaku left back debate continues to rumble on.  While our hugely experienced manager prefers to opt for Arthur, the majority of vociferous supporters mostly come down on the side of Cresswell.  One theory, from a club insider, is that Pellegrini had been informed that Crossrail was very late and expensive and the Chilean had become confused.

Today’s referee is Lee Mason from Lancashire making his West Ham seasonal debut.  From sixteen games, Mason has brandished forty-three yellow cards and a single red one – sending off Watford’s Kabasele in an EFL cup encounter against Tottenham.

The final game before Christmas never fails to remind me of that bitterly cold Friday night in 1979 when just over 11,000 of us turned out to see West Ham play Cambridge in the old second division.  With parts of the game obscured by a blizzard, the enduring memory is supporters keeping warm at half-time by dancing on the terraces to Mike Oldfield’s In Dulci Jubilo.

The wise men of punditry have a difference of opinion on today’s game.  Merson goes for gold with a predicted 3-1 Hammers win while Lawro makes do with myrrh (or should that be mirth) with a 2-0 Watford victory.  Lawro is convinced that the Hammers run must come to end having also predicted a Fulham win last weekend.  Myself, I have already written down West Ham 4 Watford 1 in a letter and sent it to the North Pole.  So, Santa, provided that your sleigh is not grounded due to low flying drones please deliver three more points to the London Stadium.  We haven’t been naughty much this year – promise!

I’ll begin my preview of this weekend’s game by repeating parts of my preview to the Newcastle game that I wrote just three weeks ago as we began the last month of 2018 and the run up to Christmas.

“As we reach December 1, the beginning of meteorological winter, we begin a run of eight matches in 33 days, that will possibly define the eventual outcome of our season. A look at the current league table reveals that, on paper at least, the forthcoming 720 minutes (plus time added on of course), will see us facing as easy a group of fixtures that we could hope for. Now this is unpredictable West Ham we are talking about, so although they may look like very winnable fixtures, those of us who have followed the team throughout the years know that this may very well not be the case.

Starting today we face (A) Newcastle (13^th), (H) Cardiff (15^th), (H) Palace (17^th), (A) Fulham (20^th), (H) Watford (9^th), (A) Southampton (19^th), (A) Burnley (18^th), (H) Brighton (12^th). At the moment we sit in 14^th position on 12 points, so 24 points from these games will put us on 36 points, which will be above Manchester City if they lose their next 8 games. OK, so I know that anything like that is not remotely going to happen, (City could well be on 59 points at that time), but wouldn’t it be good to put together some back to back wins to propel us up the league table. When was the last time we won even two games in a row? Will this be the first game of an eight match winning run? I suspect you could get very long odds on that happening!”

Incredibly we are half way there! With four games of this season gone, we trailed today’s opponents by 12 points. As is often repeated, we lost our opening four games, whereas Watford were victorious in all four (admittedly three at home) against Brighton, Burnley, Palace and Tottenham. The gap was 12 points. What odds were on offer at that time, on us going into today’s game with both of us sitting in the top half of the table, with Watford below us? It would have been similar to the long odds mentioned before I suspect. And we’ve done it with a lengthy injury list too!

In fact, both Watford and ourselves have virtually identical records in the 17 games that we have each played to date. We’ve both won 7, drawn 3, lost 7, and have conceded 25 goals. The only difference is that Watford have scored 23, whereas we have 2 more, and as a result do not have a negative goal difference. This game, and the one on 27 December at St Mary’s, will take us up to the half way point of the season, and barring a calamitous run of results, I think we can safely say that we will not have to look over our shoulders any more. The positivity from all quarters is such that European qualification is now a distinct possibility, and that was not the case a few weeks ago.

I don’t think that we were at our best against Fulham last weekend but the win was comfortable without us needing to find the higher gears. Even without the talismanic Arnie, the team as a whole has been playing well, and they have reminded me to some extent of the West Ham I witnessed in the 1960s and 1970s. We look good going forward, the chances are being created and taken, but we can still be vulnerable and concede silly goals. And yet generally the defence has been playing well. Balbuena and Diop have formed the best central defensive partnership in many years, Zabaleta continues to defy his age and has played some excellent matches recently, and behind them the safest keeper I can remember since the days of Phil Parkes. Teams that attack the left hand side of our defence know what they are doing and that for me is the weakest part of the team.

I read someone on social media asking who our fans thought would end up as Hammer of the Year at the end of the season. There is still a long way to go, but the most pleasing aspect was the variety of responses from so many people which suggests that many players are doing well. There were numerous shouts for Fabianski, Zabaleta, Diop, Balbuena, Rice, Snodgrass, Noble, and Anderson, with not a single mention of Arnie. That would have been hard to believe a few weeks ago. But if Arnie comes back and adds his name to that list then we will almost certainly have had quite a season. Additionally, Antonio is beginning to look more like the player of a couple of seasons ago, and Hernandez is playing with the confidence that scoring goals brings to a natural goalscorer.

Side-tracking for a moment, I’m a bit of a traditionalist. I like my football on a Saturday, roast beef on Sunday, all right (could be the lyrics of a song!). In case you haven’t noticed some fixtures in February have been moved for the benefit of TV. So, if like me your favourite kick off time is 3pm on a Saturday, make the most of this weekend’s fixture, because there won’t be another home league game kicking off at 3pm on a Saturday until at least March next year!

Back to the game, with two teams equally balanced on the basis of the league table, then the odds reflect this. West Ham are around 13/10 to win the game, with Watford at 2/1, and 23/10 for the draw. Our historical record against Watford is one of overwhelming superiority, and in approaching 70 league games in more than a century, we have beaten them more than twice as many times as they have beaten us. I believe that in that time they have only won 3 league matches on our ground.

Of course there was the infamous 4-2 defeat in 2016 when we threw away a two goal lead and were accused of showboating by Mr. Deeney. Although that game was only just over two years ago, only Noble, Masuaku and Antonio of the 14 players on duty that day are likely to be in our starting eleven for this game! Our last league defeat at home to them before then was in 2007, but that game ended a sequence of 19 league games from April 1985, when we were unbeaten against Watford, winning 16 and drawing 3.

Historically, football matches played on the last Saturday before Christmas were played in front of lower crowds than usual; the theory was that a number of people did their last minute Christmas shopping on that day. The world has changed since those days with extended shopping hours. I can often remember us losing many of those pre-Christmas matches but there were some notable wins, for example a couple over Tottenham in the 1960s. In the mid-1970s I can recall Billy Jennings scoring a hat-trick in a pre-Christmas game, and both Tony Cottee and Paulo Di Canio scoring in those games too in later years.

In our last Saturday game before Christmas in 2011 (the season we were promoted back to the Premier League under Big Sam) we beat Barnsley 1-0 in a Championship game at Upton Park in front of almost 35,000 spectators. Our goalscorer that day had the last name of Diop. Not Issa of course, but Papa Bouba (remember him?). I’ll be continuing with my fun bets on Issa Diop to score the last goal of the game where very long odds are on offer. One of these weeks it will happen!

History counts for nothing and this could be a close, perhaps high scoring encounter. I’ll take us to win 3-2 with Diop heading home a corner for the winning goal. A merry Christmas and a happy New Year to West Ham fans everywhere! A fifth straight win would be a nice Christmas present for us all!

 

To kick-off this week’s match preview I will set you a simple puzzle.  What is the next score in the following sequence: 3-0, 3-1, 3-2,……..?  If you are among the 100% that can spot the answer, then you would probably be disappointed should West Ham came away from today’s game against the craven cottagers with only a share of the spoils.  A three game winning run builds confidence and expectations and, although we know it has to end somewhere, surely it is not going to be today against the leagues, bottom dwelling hosts.  Leaving aside the comparative form of the two clubs, this is traditionally the most profitable of regular London derbies.

Already the league has effectively split into three groups with a top five, bottom seven and middle eight (which lends a rather musical feel to it all).  The Hammers sit comfortably in the middle eight – the inconsequential piece in the middle that serves to fill the void between the repetition at the top and the fade out at the end.  Still, an outside run at a European place does remain a possibility if the team can continue to demonstrate an engaging freedom of movement in attack.

Fulham, on the other hand, are rock bottom of a very desperate bunch.  There may be only one ‘F’ in Fulham and right now it is decidedly looking like the past participle (f*cked!).  New manager Claudio Ranieri might be able to dine out for the rest of his days on taking Leicester City to the Premier League title, but his current task, based on what has gone before, may require an even greater miracle.  The possible silver lining in a very dark sky for the Cottagers is that they have scored more goals than any other side in the bottom seven – but then again, they have conceded many more, and by some margin.  Surely, the rip roaring, free scoring Hammers will have a field day against this frighteningly, flimsy Fulham backline!

The only debate about the West Ham starting eleven centres on whether Aaron Cresswell replaces Arthur Masuaku at left back and who starts up front alongside Javier Hernandez.  Any other change to shape and personnel would be a huge surprise.  In an ideal world the team wouldn’t concede quite as many goals but that is a difficult issue to address with current squad members and without reducing the attacking threat (and arguably the entertainment value).

The success in recent weeks, although a team effort, has been inspired by the mercurial talent of Felipe Anderson and the energy of Robert Snodgrass.  Anderson is now the club’s leading scorer and has attracted wide media attention, including the jackals who believe he is far too good to be plying his trade (or wasting his time in the view of some commentators) at the London Stadium. Snoddy has been the surprise of the season and much of the credit, in addition to his own immense attitude, has to go to Manuel Pellegrini and his coaching team.  I discovered by chance that ‘snod’ is a an old Scottish word meaning neat, trim and orderly which would make a Snodgrass someone who prefers a well-tended front lawn.

Pellegrini’s striking dilemma is who out of Lucas Perez, Andy Carroll or Michail Antonio will partner Chicharito from the start?  I really don’t see a Hernandez/ Perez offering enough off the ball in terms of mobility and power; while Carroll still resembles Mr Rusty and Antonio has the power but lacks the control.  All things considered I would opt for Carroll even in the knowledge that he may not last, stamina wise, for more than a half – he could well cause major chaos for the Fulham defence.   Big Andy was complaining in the week that he was tired of all the ‘old crock’ jokes and maybe he now has a chance to prove the doubters wrong by taking better care of himself.  My worry is that his style of play will always make him susceptible to knee and ankle impact injuries.

The Fulham side doesn’t look so bad on paper, particularly in attacking areas.  I am not a particular fan of Mitrovic who seems little more than a battering ram but he does have seven goals to his name in a struggling team this season.  The ‘S’ men in midfield of Seri, Sessegnon and Schurrle would be potentially good players in the right set up although I am not convinced by Chambers in midfield – he is no Declan Rice.  One happy piece of news is that West Ham didn’t pursue their reported interest in Mawson (there were repeated links during the summer) who I think is a poor defender at this level – the modern day Roger The Relegator who is firmly on course for a second successive relegation.

We’ve got a Friend refereeing the game today as Kevin from Leicestershire takes charge of his second Hammers game of the season – the first being the disappointing defeat at Brighton in October.  Friend is averaging four yellow cards a game over seventeen matches but his only red of the season was the dismissal of Shane Duffy two weeks ago.

A difference of opinion between the pundits this week.  Whereas Merson sees the Hammers continuing their fine run with a 3-1 win, Lawro is predicting a surprise 2-1 home win.  Provided that West Ham can avoid complacency, over confidence and a slow start they should really win this one at a canter.  There should be far too much fire power for the hosts to handle.  My heart is confident of a 4-1 win to make it four in a row, but there is also that little voice in my head that is whispering ‘rule out the 3-3 draw that the sequence omens suggests at your peril!’

In the past, an unwelcome seasonal dilemma was whether to go to the match or help with the family Christmas shopping.  In the days before 1994, shops didn’t open on a Sunday either and unless you intended to buy all your presents at a petrol station time was at a premium.  Happily, subject to the availability of mobile data or a wifi signal, it is now possible to go online during the half-time interval to buy your loved one a bargain set of festive saucepans or perhaps a stylish facial sauna, from the comfort of your own stadium seat.  For balance, I will point out that lady supporters may do likewise to surprise their special man with the great small of Brut or a value pack of Argyll patterned socks.

Meanwhile on the football field, West Ham will be endeavouring to complete a third bird battering on the bounce where, having seen off the Magpies and the Bluebirds, they now face the Eagles from south of the river.  Bird themed football clubs are becoming an endangered species in the top flight and it would be no surprise if one of more of these were seen flocking to the Championship next season where birds continue to exist in greater numbers (swans, owls, throstles, robins, peacocks and so on.)

The Hammers are unbeaten in their last six Premier League games against Palace having won three and drawn three.  Both matches last season ended in draws and the last Palace win was at Upton Park back in February 2015.  Another stat from Premier League games between the two clubs is that the team scoring first has never lost – well apart from that time when the floodlights failed (a televised game in November 1997) where Palace had held a 2-0 lead at one stage before the game was abandoned at 2-2.  West Ham won the re-arranged fixture 4-1.

It will be disappointing if we do not improve on the record against Palace this afternoon.  As Manuel Pellegrini pointed out at his pre-match press conference, if we could wipe out the first four games of the season, his team would be sitting sixth in the table.  While that is impossible to do, there is no reason why the Hammers should not be close to the European places come the end of the year.  Yes, I know I am getting ahead myself but what is the point if we can’t dream.

The fly in the West Ham ointment is the enforced absence of Marko Arnautovic.  He has been threatening an injury layoff for some time and will now be missing for the next four weeks at least.  It is true that Arnie has not been at the top of his game just recently but he brings a strength, power and mobility to the side that is not available elsewhere in the squad.  He is an important part of Pellegrini’s plan and is the focal point of most attacking play – he will be badly missed.  Because they have both banged in a couple of goals in recent weeks there could be a temptation to consider a Little Pea-Perez partnership up front, but I don’t see how this works in practice – too static and passive to make the required off-the-ball contribution.  The alternative are a striking start are Andy Carroll or Michail Antonio while the wildcard is Xande Silva (from the Triple X programme).  It might be too soon to give the injury prone Geordie a start but I feel he will get the nod.

The rest of the selection should be self-explanatory with the return of Pablo Zabaleta and Fabian Balbuena to the defence but, otherwise, as you were!

Palace are likely to start with two former Hammers with pretty-boy James Tomkins in defence and the permanently perplexed Cheikhou Kouyate in midfield.  It will be a Slug Versus Sloth midfield contest where we can decide whether Mark Noble and Kouyate make more effective opponents than they did team-mates.  With Benteke missing the greatest Palace threats will be the dribbling and diving of Zaha and the set pieces of Milivojevic.  I believe that by playing Zaha in a central role it gives our defence a better chance of handling the menace than if he was terrorising the full-backs.

Today’s referee is Anthony Taylor from Cheshire who was in charge of West Ham’s season opener at Anfield back in August.  He is another referee who loves yellows but is a little more reluctant with the reds.

Pundits Lawro and Merson both see a routine 2-0 win for the Hammers today.  Palace will be smarting after the manner of their defeat at Brighton and I think we can expect a very tight encounter against very defensively minded visitors.  Roy Hodgson will be looking for a disciplined and organised reaction from his team.  A fast start, high intensity, concentration and patience will all be necessary in order to break down the resistance and to avoid any sucker punches.  I am currently in hopelessly optimistic mode and confident of another three goal winning performance.  Whereas my co-blogger, Richard Bennett, has his money on Issa Diop getting on the score-sheet, but I have a dream that it will be Arthur Masuaku’s turn to add some credit to his flagging popularity balance by nabbing himself the opening goal – perhaps in the style of Frank Lampard at Elland Road.

After a comfortable win (despite Neil Warnock’s disbelieving comments) over the Bluebirds of South Wales on Tuesday night, we now have the opportunity to record a third successive win (in our eight game winning streak – it is still a possibility!) and soar into the top half of the Premier League table. All we need to do is beat a Palace team that were woeful on Tuesday away at Brighton and hope that the Seagulls themselves lose at Burnley on Saturday. The other two teams above us, the other W’s in the top flight (Wolves and Watford) who can stop us moving into the top ten, do not play until Sunday or Monday.

In many ways I don’t like to see us meeting opponents who have just had a poor game, because I’ve seen on so many occasions West Ham lose in these circumstances. The “woeful” description I gave earlier was told to me by an avid Palace fan friend who suggested that we would hammer them today. We shall see. Brighton were a goal up when they had a player sent off in the first half, and you would have thought that Palace had a great opportunity against ten men for such a long period. In fact, Brighton had a further player being tended for an injury and were down to nine on the field when they scored a second goal. Manager Roy Hodgson’s face was like thunder throughout the rest of the game, and it remains to be seen if he can motivate them to improve their performance today. But it was only last weekend that Palace themselves hammered Burnley, and the 2-0 score didn’t reflect their total superiority in the game.

Of course we potentially face ex-Hammers Tomkins and Kouyate in this match, although unlike some who have written on social media this week, I am personally not sorry to have lost either of them. But former players can sometimes come back to hurt you, and we must hope that doesn’t happen. Palace sit 15^th in the table with 12 points, six below us, and just three above the three teams in the relegation zone (Southampton, Fulham, and Burnley). Their three victories have come away at Fulham and Huddersfield, and at home to Burnley, and they have shared the spoils with Newcastle and Arsenal at Selhurst Park, and at Old Trafford.

Arnie will be out for around a month it seems, and Perez took his goals well when he came on to replace him shortly before half-time. And of course Carroll has now made a timely return from injury, and if he plays a part in this game we will all be hoping for a repeat of his spectacular goal against Palace in January 2017. Antonio had a good game in his role as a right back but I would expect Zabaleta to return for this match, and in Cresswell’s absence no doubt Masuaku will continue at left back. Ogbonna also did little wrong but I prefer Balbuena to partner Diop.

I would expect to see the following line-up: Fabianski; Zabaleta, Diop, Balbuena, Masuaku; Rice, Noble, Snodgrass; Anderson, Hernandez, Perez. That’s eleven different nationalities if Rice is still Irish! Depending on how the game goes, I would expect Antonio and Carroll to play a part too if they are not in the starting line-up, with other possible involvement from Obiang and Diangana.

Surprisingly, in my opinion, we are not odds-on with the bookies to win the game, and you can get odds of around 5/4 or 6/5 on a West Ham victory. For my fun bets this week I will hope that we continue with our current trend of scoring three goals a game, and will be considering 3-0 (at 18/1) or 3-1 (at 16/1). Cardiff’s late goal on Tuesday ruined my bet on a 3-0 score.

And continuing my belief in Issa Diop to score, I will look at Diop scoring the last goal in a 3-0 win (500/1) or in a 3-1 victory (600/1). For Diop to score a goal at any time in the game you can get 16/1, or to score the first goal of the match (40/1), the last goal of the match (40/1), two or more goals (200/1). I reckon a hat-trick at 2000/1 is unlikely!

Those of us who have supported the team for any length of time will know that we can expect the unexpected. In fact with West Ham we have no idea what to expect. Much has been made in the press about our last two victories being our first back to back wins in the league for almost two years (January 2017). The first of those games was actually against Palace (the second was away at Middlesbrough), but we came back down to earth in our attempt at the hat-trick when we faced Manchester City in the next game.

We had already achieved back to back wins earlier that season with wins at Palace and at home to Sunderland, and we also achieved a hat-trick of league wins in December 2016 (Burnley, Hull and Swansea), so it is not that unusual. We just didn’t manage it last season.

For this week’s trip down memory lane I rummaged through my programme collection to find the game we played at home to Palace on 8 November 1969, almost fifty years ago. This was our first match against these opponents since the 1922-23 season when we met them in Division 2. That was the season we went on to compete in the first Wembley FA Cup Final.

We went into the 1969 game 7^th from the bottom of Division One with Palace three positions and one point below us. Goals from Geoff Hurst and Clyde Best ensured a 2-1 win in front of over 31,000. How many of the players in the first team squad can you recognise from the photo on the front of the programme?

Gareth Southgate has been featured in the media this week bemoaning the shortage of English players represented in the Premier League, a situation which hit a record low at the weekend with less than 25% of all starters eligible to wear the three lions.  West Ham were slightly above average with three of the starting eleven (27%) as potential qualifyers.  It is a similar story at managerment level where only five clubs (if you include Chris Hughton at Brighton) can boast that dying breed that is an English gaffer. Today’s visitors are one of that select group and today we can welcome our old Sheffield United friend, and the most famous anagram in football, Colin Wanker. Now in his thirteenth managerial position at a league club, Warnock has been at the helm at Cardiff for the past two, largely successful, years.

Games against Cardiff are the closest that we get these days to exotic European competition and with a little imagination it might be possible to recreate those special sepia tinted nights under the floodlights on a chilly winter’s evening.  Take you own Bovril and Percy Dalton peanuts to complete the illusion.

West Ham will be aiming for their seventh consecutive win against the Bluebirds having beaten them three times in the 2013/14 Premier League season (including a 3^rd round League Cup tie) and three times in 2011/12 Championship season (including the two legged Playoff semi-final).

Cardiff have picked up just one of their eleven points on the road this season (a “dreadful scoreless draw” according to the Telegraph against the ten-men of Huddersfield) and although there have been heavy defeats, at Chelsea and Liverpool, they managed to keep both Tottenham and Everton down to a single goal margin.  The Hammers may well go into the match as favourites, buoyed by victory at Newcastle, but this will be no walkover.  Cardiff will look to defend deep and will be well organised.  The experience in recent years is that it is just the type of game that West Ham struggle to impose themselves on.  Still there can be no better time for Manuel Pellegrini to achieve his first back to back wins as West Ham manager.

Team selection speculation for the game is centred around defensive availability.  In normal circumstances, I would have expected there to be no discretionary changes made to the team that started at Newcastle.  However, there has been much talk about a well-earned rest for Pablo Zabaleta’s ageing legs as well as fitness doubts over Fabian Balbuena and Aaron Cresswell.  Three changes to a relatively stable back four could prove disastrous and the idea of twin scapegoats-in-chief Michail Antonio and Arthur Masuaku as full back partners sounds unthinkable.

In the absence of inside knowledge on the extent of the injuries, my anticipated lineup relies even more heavily on guesswork than usual.  I am certain Pellegrini will continue with the twin spearhead of Marko Arnautovic and Chicharito during the upcoming set of benign fixtures.  I would also expect Andy Carroll and Jack Wilshere to play some part tonight.

Cardiff have no new reported injury concerns and are likely to keep the same side that did so well to come from behind last Friday to win and nudge Wolves further in their slow slide down the table.

Tonight’s referee is occasional Premier League whistle-blower Graham Scott from Oxfordshire.  This is only his fourth top flight match of the season, although that did include the Arsenal – West Ham clash in August, the game which launched the Gunners on their long unbeaten run.  I don’t recall any particular refereeing bloopers arising in that game.

Top pundits Lawro and Merson are both going for home wins at 2-0 and 3-0 respectively.  It is the sort of game where if West Ham score once then they might go on and get a hat-full. But it will be no easy task to break down a deep=lying, disciplined and determined defence.   The Hammers attacking strength is through swift counter attacking and there has been little evidence of getting behind defensive lines of teams with minimal attacking intent.  Even so, I have to remain optimistic and will align with Merson at 3-0.