Category: Preview

From Promises to Peril: West Ham’s Premier League Future Hangs In The Balance

Can we turn our season around or is relegation now inevitable?

Saturday’s clash at the London Stadium is more than just another fixture—it’s a pivotal moment in West Ham’s season. The Hammers are mired in a relegation battle, sitting 18th in the table as we head into our 18th game of the season, and there’s no getting away from it, form and morale are at a worrying low. Forget all the talk about resurgence under Nuno, we are now six points adrift (if you take goal difference into account) and how many games have we won recently? Our last six league games have failed to produce a single win and just three points from three draws. That’s relegation form.

Fulham, meanwhile, arrive in better shape, unbeaten in their last ten London derbies and with a more balanced squad. They’ve won four of their last six league games, but in a tight division, although they are 13th in the table, they are just four points away from sixth place. Recent meetings have favoured Fulham, with West Ham winless in the last three encounters and suffering heavy defeats in previous derbies.

Predictions from analysts and betting sites suggest Fulham are favourites, with West Ham’s defensive frailties and lack of attacking threat making a home win unlikely. The Hammers have conceded in every home game this season and have one of the worst home records in the league.

Our struggles are rooted in a combination of poor recruitment, tactical confusion, and a lack of clear direction from the top. The club has cycled through managers—Julen Lopetegui, Graham Potter, and now Nuno Espirito Santo—without finding stability or a coherent playing style. The squad has been reshuffled, but new signings have failed to make a significant impact, and key departures (such as Declan Rice) have left a leadership void.

On the pitch, the problems are clear, defensive lapses, especially at set pieces and in aerial duels, players out of position leading to a lack of cohesion, poor discipline with a high number of fouls and cards and a worrying inability to convert chances into goals. The atmosphere at the London Stadium has also suffered, with fans feeling disconnected and apathetic, further compounding the team’s lack of confidence.

Who is to blame? While managers have taken much of the criticism, expert analysis and fan sentiment increasingly point to the board, particularly David Sullivan and Karen Brady, as the root cause. Poor decisions in the transfer market, questionable managerial appointments, and a lack of long-term strategy have left the club adrift. The recruitment failures and boardroom mismanagement are more to blame than the managers themselves. The club’s identity has been eroded since the move to the London Stadium and promises of a “world-class team” have not materialised.

There’s also blame to be shared among the players, who have not performed to their potential, and the managers, who have struggled to impose a clear tactical identity. However, the underlying structural issues mean that even talented individuals have been unable to thrive.

The importance of retaining Premier League status and the financial and sporting consequences cannot be underestimated. Relegation would be catastrophic for West Ham. The club stands to lose up to £120 million in revenue from TV rights, ticket sales, and sponsorships if we drop to the Championship. This would not only impact the ability to attract and retain top players but could also lead to further instability and decline.

The Premier League’s financial gap with the Championship is ever-widening, and survival is essential for maintaining the club’s profile, competitiveness, and future prospects. The new financial regulations (Squad Cost Ratio) will also make it harder for clubs to recover from relegation, increasing the stakes for West Ham.

Historically, teams in 18th place at Christmas have survived two-thirds of the time, but the odds are against those in the bottom three. Our situation is precarious, but not yet hopeless; recent seasons have seen dramatic escapes, but only with decisive action and improved performances.

Saturday’s game is beginning to look like a must-win for West Ham. Unless we turn recent results around in the next six games (which are as winnable as it gets in the Premier League) then we can start to prepare for trips to Blackburn, Swansea and Wrexham and, dare I say it, Millwall (that’s if they don’t change places with us!). The team needs to show resilience, tactical discipline, and attacking intent to have any hope of climbing out of the relegation zone. The board must act decisively in the January transfer window, addressing squad weaknesses and supporting the manager. Above all, the club needs unity—between fans, players, and leadership—to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past and secure our Premier League future.

If West Ham fail to turn things around, the consequences will be severe—not just for this season, but for the club’s long-term health and identity.

Merry Christmas everyone!

Miracles, Memories and Missed Bets: Reliving some of West Ham’s greatest moments against Manchester City

West Ham travel to Manchester this weekend to face City, and while I’d love to believe in an upset, history and current form make that hard to imagine. City are unbeaten in their last 19 Premier League games against us, winning 16, and we’ve lost 15 of our last 16 away games there. The only exception was in the final Boleyn season, when we managed a 2-1 win in September 2015, with Victor Moses and Diafra Sakho scoring before De Bruyne pulled one back just before half time. We held on for a famous victory that day.

City don’t show mercy to teams in the relegation zone; it’s been 46 games since they last lost to a team starting the day in the bottom three, and they’ve won the last 14 of those, scoring 43 and conceding just 7. If you’re hoping current form might give us a chance, City have won five of their last six league games to climb into second place, just two points behind Arsenal, while we’ve only managed one win in our last six, though we have picked up three draws.

Rather than dwell on the chances of an upset, I find myself reminiscing about the times we’ve managed to get the better of City. I sometimes like a small wager on the football, and over the years I’ve had my share of luck and disappointment. One memory stands out from 23rd March 1996, when City were struggling near the bottom of the table. I fancied a bet on the correct score and thought the odds on us winning 4-1 at 80-1 were too good to pass up. We had seats in the old West Stand lower, and I remember Ludo saving an early penalty from Kinkladze. Iain Dowie scored with a header for 1-0 at half time, and in the second half he added another from a corner. City pulled one back after a blunder from Ludo, but then Julian Dicks smashed in a screamer from 30 yards for 3-1. I started to believe my bet might come in, and when Dani tucked away a fourth, I was already counting my winnings. But in the dying seconds Niall Quinn scored for City, and the game ended 4-2. So near and yet so far – a terrific game, and a great result, but just a little personal disappointment at the end.

That wasn’t the only time fate played a hand. In the 2000-01 season, on Remembrance Day, I told colleagues about my unlucky 4-2 betting tale and fancied another go at 4-1. The new stand was under construction, and strong winds delayed kick-off. I forgot to place my bet, and as it turned out, despite being a goal down at half time, we won 4-1 again with a last minute Di Canio penalty. This time, missing the bet meant missing out on £165, as the odds had dropped to 33-1.

Among my earliest football memories is the 1959-60 season, when we beat City 4-1 during a run of eight wins in ten games. In 1962-63, we thrashed City 6-1 twice, home and away, and in 1966, shortly after England’s World Cup win, we beat them 4-1 at Maine Road with goals from Ron Boyce, two from Geoff Hurst, and Martin Peters. In 1968, we beat City 2-1 at Upton Park with two classic near-post headers, and perhaps the most famous game came in March 1970 on a mudbath of a pitch at Maine Road. Jimmy Greaves scored twice on his debut, but the highlight was Ron Boyce’s volley from 50 yards, and we won 5-1. In 1982-83, we beat City 4-1 again early in the season, and once more, City were relegated that year.

I haven’t had a correct score bet on a West Ham v Manchester City game since that day in 1996, almost 30 years ago. The odds for a 4-1 West Ham away win this weekend are 200/1, and just to win by any score is around 12/1. I think I’ll keep my fiver in my pocket this time. As much as I’d love to believe in a miracle, history suggests otherwise – but football is nothing if not unpredictable, and memories of those famous wins remind us that anything (however unlikely!) is possible.

From Upton Park Thrashings to Where We Are Now. The changing fortunes of West Ham and Aston Villa (part one)

Ten years ago we were about half way through the final season at the Boleyn Ground. Geoff and I were writers on the West Ham fanzine Over Land And Sea which was sold outside Upton Park. During that season I was writing my book Goodbye Upton Park, Hello Stratford. In the book I wrote a chapter to precede each fixture and another to review the game after it had been played. I thought that as Villa were our opponents this weekend I’d look back at what I wrote then. The game was played on 2nd February 2016. Ten years is a long time in football as you can see from my article written then when I looked back at previous fixtures against Villa that I remembered. At the time we were riding high in the Premier League and they were bottom. Contrast that to the present where we are in the relegation zone and they are third having won their last five games in a row and are now just three points behind league leaders Arsenal. Tomorrow I will publish the follow on chapter which reviewed what actually happened.

Going Down, Going Down, Going Down West Ham v Aston Villa – Before The Game (as published prior to the game in 2016)

On 9 January I recalled my earliest vague West Ham memories at the start of the 1958-59 season. We had won away at Portsmouth on the opening day, and then we beat the champions Wolves in the first home game under floodlights. The next game was our first Saturday home game of the season against today’s opponents, Aston Villa. We gave them quite a thrashing, 7-2! All of our goals were shots from outside the penalty area apparently and we also hit the woodwork several times. Incidentally Villa were relegated that season. It is rare to get a score like this in the modern game, but at the time in my earliest football recollections it wasn’t that unusual for big scores. In that first season we had league games at Upton Park that finished 6-0, 6-3, 5-1, 5-3, 4-3, 4-2 and I was disappointed when we didn’t win a game scoring lots of goals. As a four year old I thought it was the norm.

Just over a week later after beating Manchester United in another night game we were top of the league six games into the season. My football team headed Division One. Once again I thought it was the norm! I was disappointed that by the end of the season we had dropped to sixth! Never mind, I thought we would probably win the league the next season. 58 years on and I am still waiting! I was desperate to go to see a game live but that wish wasn’t fulfilled until a couple of months later.

A lot is made of the cost of going to football these days, especially the admission prices considering the vast TV money that comes into the game which should, in theory, enable clubs to keep down entrance costs. It is all relative of course but you may be interested to know what it cost to watch West Ham in that first season back in the top flight. Promotion the previous May had enabled the board to increase ticket prices for the 1958-59 season to: North and South Bank 10p, Chicken Run 15p, West Stand Lower (standing) 17.5p, and in the West Stand you would pay between 22.5p up to 37.5p for the best seats. Children had concessionary prices in the North and South Bank at 5p. The cost of the programme rose from under 2p to 2.5p. Some rough equivalent prices at the time were Milk 3p pint, Bread 2p loaf, Beer 4.5p pint, Petrol 2p per litre. You can do the maths to decide whether we get good value now compared to then. I’ve converted the prices to the current currency – at the time we used pounds, shillings and pence. It is frightening to think that in a couple of weeks it will be 45 years since we made the change to the current decimal currency system (it happened on my dad’s 46th birthday). Anybody reading this under the age of 50 will not really remember the old system, with 12 pence to the shilling and 20 shillings to the pound.

Villa returned to Division One a couple of seasons later and they were our visitors in the first game of the season, but this time we could only beat them 5-2! By the time we met them in March 1966 we beat them 4-2, with Geoff Hurst scoring one of our goals to celebrate his international debut just a week before. Martin Peters was still two months away from winning his first international cap. It’s amazing to think that at the end of that season they were so instrumental in England winning the World Cup. Can you imagine a modern scenario of a footballer who hasn’t yet played for England making his debut in the next three months and then scoring all the goals in the final of Euro 2016?   

I can’t recall anything much of note in Villa games from then until our FA Cup quarter final in 1980, when as a second division club over 36,000 crammed into Upton Park to see us win 1-0 with a coolly taken late penalty from Ray Stewart. With my friend Geoff we were season ticket holders in the West Stand B Block that season, which was particularly useful for getting into this game, as well as getting tickets for the subsequent Wembley final. The Villa game was an “all-ticket only” match which was quite unusual in those days when paying at the turnstiles was the norm for most games. 20,000 standing tickets were on sale to fans queueing at Upton Park on the Sunday before the game as postal applications were not allowed. Obviously this was not especially convenient for those supporters who lived some distance from the ground, but 36 years ago this was perhaps less of an issue than it would be today. In an attempt to be helpful the club decided to allow two tickets per applicant so that only one fan had to attend rather than the fan and his friend. This led to ticket touts having a field day on the day of the game. Well done West Ham!

In the record breaking league season of 1985-86 we beat them 4-1 with two goals from McAvennie and two from Cottee. McAvennie scored quite a few goals for us in his two spells at the club, especially in this season when he scored 26 league goals, a figure that hasn’t been bettered in a single season since. He frequently scored a brace of goals (don’t you just love that phrase when used for goal scoring) but didn’t manage a hat-trick until his very last game for us when he came on as a substitute against Nottingham Forest in 1992.

When this fixture was played in October 1985 (just 12 games into the season) Manchester United were unbeaten and running away with the league with 11 wins and a draw giving them 34 points and a ten point lead from Liverpool in the title race. We were 17 points off the pace in eleventh so it is incredible how we got so close to winning the league. Considering we had a 17 point deficit and then finished 8 points ahead of United means that there was a 25 point turnaround with them in the last 30 games of the season! They finished fourth in the end losing ten of their final 30 games, quite a decline after such an outstanding start.  

It is easy to forget in the current climate of capacity crowds at Upton Park that the game was in the doldrums in the mid-1980s in terms of spectator numbers. Just 15,000 were there to see the Villa game in October 1985, and there had been three even lower league attendances than that prior to the game that season. As the season progressed and we were challenging for the title the numbers began to rise into the 20,000s, but it wasn’t until our final home league game on a Wednesday night in April against Ipswich that 30,000 was exceeded for the first time. The attendance didn’t even reach 20,000 for the visit of Liverpool who ended the season as champions.

With just a few days of the twentieth century remaining on a Wednesday evening shortly before Christmas we experienced another of those incidents that was so West Ham. We played Aston Villa in the quarter final of the League Cup. The score was 2-2 with just a few minutes of extra time remaining when Harry Redknapp sent on Manny Omoyinmi as a late substitute. He barely touched the ball and the game was decided on penalties which we won 5-4 to take us into the semi-final. Omoyinmi didn’t take a penalty so he had no influence on the game whatsoever.

However there was one big problem. He had been out on loan earlier in the season and had played in the League Cup for Gillingham and was therefore ineligible to play for us in the competition that season. The Football League ordered the game to be replayed and of course we lost when it was played in January, despite leading late in the game and Di Canio missing a penalty in extra time (the only penalty he ever missed in a West Ham shirt I believe). Rules are rules I guess. The League had the power to throw us out of the competition but at least gave us another chance. Omoyinmi never played for us again and two club administrators resigned as a result of the incident.

Incredibly it wasn’t the first time we had played an ineligible player that season! In the UEFA Cup we played Igor Stimac in a game when he shouldn’t have played because he had a European ban outstanding from his days before joining us. We got away with that one as UEFA admitted fault saying they didn’t tell us he was ineligible. We were lucky that time but not when we played Aston Villa. Does it only happen to us?

In the past ten years or so there is little to recall. Goals have dried up since Marlon Harewood scored a hat-trick in one of the season’s early games in our return to the top flight in 2005. In fact since that day, in our last eight league games at Upton Park against Villa we have managed just seven goals. Last season we met them when we were in the middle of a superb pre-Christmas run which yielded just one defeat in eleven games, but the game finished 0-0.

So what will happen in tonight’s game? In theory we should give them quite a hammering given their abysmal form this season. They are surely on their way down to the Championship. But we only drew with them at Villa Park on Boxing Day. This is West Ham remember. You never know. I’d love to see a return to the fifties or sixties tonight. 4-2? 5-2? Or even 7-2? Perhaps not, but a good entertaining game with a few goals and three more points would do nicely.

Can West Ham break the Brighton curse? Will the Seagulls soar or the Hammers strike? The Sunday showdown at the Amex.

West Ham United visit Brighton & Hove Albion at the Amex Stadium this Sunday, with both sides seeking to improve their fortunes as the season approaches its midpoint at the end of the month. Historically, Brighton have dominated this fixture, losing only once in 16 Premier League encounters with West Ham (seven wins, eight draws), with our sole win coming in August 2023. West Ham’s win rate against Brighton stands at just 6%, our lowest against any opponent faced more than twice in the competition. Brighton have also scored more Premier League goals against West Ham (31) than against any other side, and only Manchester United (8 times) have been beaten more often by the Seagulls than the Hammers (7 times).

Brighton enter the match in solid form, having won three of their last six league games. Their recent results include victories over Leeds (3-0), Brentford (2-1), and Nottingham Forest (2-0), a draw with Crystal Palace (0-0), and a 4-3 defeat to Aston Villa and a 4-2 loss to Manchester United. The Seagulls have shown attacking prowess but also some defensive frailties, scoring 12 goals and conceding 9 in this period. For the season to date they have won 6, drawn 4 and lost 4, 24 goals scored and 20 conceded, and sit in seventh place with 22 points prior to this round of matches. But the table is so congested they are just two points below Chelsea in fourth and three points above Bournemouth in fourteenth.

West Ham, meanwhile, have struggled for consistency throughout the season. In our last six matches, we have shown an upturn and recorded two wins (3-1 vs Newcastle, 3-2 vs Burnley), two draws (2-2 vs Bournemouth, 1-1 vs Manchester United), and two defeats (2-1 vs Leeds, 2-0 vs Liverpool). The Hammers have scored 10 goals and conceded 10, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities that have plagued our campaign. For the season as a whole we have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 8 giving us 12 points with 16 goals scored and 28 conceded. Only Wolves (29) have conceded more. As a result we sit in the relegation zone in 18th place, two points adrift of 17th placed Leeds.

Brighton’s squad is stretched by injuries, with Tzimas, Milner, March, and Webster ruled out. Mitoma, Ayari, Watson, and Rutter are doubtful. Danny Welbeck, who has scored six Premier League goals against West Ham, is expected to lead the line, supported by the creative talents of Minteh, Gruda, and De Cuyper.

According to Nuno West Ham welcome back Lucas Paquetá after suspension (but not welcome back for me!), which he believes should bolster our midfield creativity. However, we remain without Igor Julio, Oliver Scarles, and possibly Crysencio Summerville. Callum Wilson, with eight goal contributions against Brighton, will be a key attacking threat, while Jarrod Bowen continues to be our most potent source of goals and assists, although his form appears to have dipped of late. So many of his shots are either missing the target or are getting blocked.

Our last game in midweek was a deserved 1-1 draw at Old Trafford. Personally I was impressed by the efforts of the team as a whole, particularly the performances of Magassa, Wan Bissaka, Potts, Fernandes and Todibo. At last we are getting greater pace and mobility in midfield but I didn’t understand the selection of Soucek and the position he was asked to play; I would have liked to see Earthy given his opportunity to add further mobility to the middle of the pitch. And I couldn’t understand why there was such a delay in making substitutions when we were a goal down either.

Some of the points from Nuno’s conference on Friday: he confirmed Lucas Paqueta is “going to play” from the start after serving his one-match suspension for his red card against Liverpool. Asked if he had any concerns over Paqueta’s dissent, Nuno added: “I already spoke about that. It is in the past. I am positive it will not happen again because he personally admitted his mistake. We spoke about it in the dressing room. I am positive it is over and it will not be repeated.” We shall see!

On Crysencio Summerville’s fitness: “Hopefully returns soon. We miss him. We know what he gives to the team. Let’s see. We need all the players. I hope he can be back. I hope Oliver Scarles can join the team. We are going to need him because we lose our full-backs to Afcon.”

Nuno believes the midfield unit is “slowly progressing in knowledge and complicity”, adding: “Energy. They are all very young. They are growing together. They are slowly understanding the specifics. This is what makes a good midfield. You can’t be an individual. You can’t put two players together and expect them to click immediately.”

Being in the bottom three: “We cannot avoid it. It is a reality. We have to face it. We are fighting for survival. We cannot hide it. The results of other teams we cannot control. It is up to us.” Nuno says he is “slowly trying to fix” our poor record of defending set-pieces and we are now “trying to take advantage of offensive corners” like the one we scored from against Manchester United on Thursday. He added: “We know how important set-pieces are in the game. They are basic and fundamental for any kind of team. Working, working, working. Repeating, repeating. Trying to find the consistency of delivery, trying to mark the strong opponents we will find. The blocks are important. Alphonse got a big help with that also.”

Only Aston Villa have won more points from losing positions this season. But not too many teams fall behind as often as we do! “Everybody in the club is realising we have to give the best of everything. We have to give the best of us to get out of this situation. That is the reality. A club like us, as big as we are, we have to face the situation so we can go out. It is hard to build with urgency but the boys are committed and we think we can do it.”

Brighton have been particularly effective at home, scoring at least twice in each of their last six Premier League matches at the Amex. Their attacking rhythm and possession-based style have yielded results, though defensive lapses remain a concern for them. Under Nuno Espirito Santo we have shown some resilience but lack stability, especially at the back, having failed to keep a clean sheet in our last 11 league games.

Given Brighton’s historical dominance in this fixture, their strong home form, and West Ham’s defensive frailties, the Seagulls are favourites. We can expect an open contest with chances for both sides, but Brighton’s attacking cohesion and home advantage could prove decisive. A high-scoring affair is likely, with Brighton tipped by the bookmakers and most pundits to edge the match. I’d love to think we can surprise them but hope that we can at least add to our recent tally of drawn games and get a 2-2 draw. What are the chances?

West Ham Travel To Manchester United For The Battle Of The Transfer Chumps

West Ham United’s Premier League farewell tour rolls into Manchester this evening in the hope of finding an ideal spot to park the bus.

A recent analysis by the International Centre for Sports Studies placed both today’s combatants at the very foot of football’s transfer hall of shame. West Ham and Manchester United floundering in the bottom six of clubs who have derived the worst possible value for money in transfer dealings since 2021.

In the survey, which includes all clubs whose transfer spending exceeded €10 million, the two Premier League clubs are joined in the roll of dishonour by four Saudi clubs. And let’s face it, those Saudis are well used to losing an arm and a leg.

The reliability of the study was subsequently endorsed in a Daily Mail report which confirmed it had been undertaken by boffins. Who could possibly argue with that? It’s a sign of the times that we don’t hear nearly often enough from boffins these days. It has to be one of my favourite (peculiarly British) words, alongside scarpered.

Waste of Transfer Money in Euros

Delve a little deeper and a case can easily be made that the Hammers record is significantly worse – and has had far greater impact – than the Red Devils. Relative to revenues – which are ultimately the driver of transfer spend in the world of PSR and SCR – the most recent accounts show Manchester United outearning West Ham by some distance: £666 million to £271 million. While both records are appalling, the Mancs are far better placed to absorb and recover from losses of that scale.

It is possibly the saddest indictment of West Ham’s mismanagement and poor stewardship that having had 14 seasons feeding from the Premier League money bonanza trough, they have been left with a squad whose value and quality is no better than any of the newly promoted clubs.

Last night’s results saw the Hammers slip back once again into the relegation places. Wins for Leeds and Nottingham Forest hinting that the race for the drop might shift from a five-horse race to a three horse certainty. Dyche will no doubt continue to grind out results at the City Ground while Leeds have demonstrated a fighting spirit in their last two games that is sorely lacking from the West Ham squad.

In times of desperation, it is tempting to clutch at the straw that you never know what you’re going to get with West Ham. But that is fast becoming a fireside myth. The days of pulling off shock wins have been few and far between in recent seasons. When they have happened it has been the result of opposition off days rather than Hammer’s excellence.

With six games to go until the end of the year – and the season’s halfway point – it is challenging to see where more more than a handful of points might come from. By then, we may be even further adrift of safety. Leaving survival reliant on a storming transformational transfer window – something which all prior evidence (see above) suggests is improbable.

Tonight’s opponents have been experiencing a mini revival of late, but without pulling up any trees. I watched their game at Crystal Palace as part of a low-quality Super Sunday double bill, and they remain well short of top six quality. Palace should really have been out of sight by half time but had forgotten to bring along their shooting boots. Not for the first time, it was Bruno Fernandes who inspired the visitors comeback. He will be the main threat again tonight.

With the enforced absence of Lucas Paqueta, Nuno will have been busily spinning the selection wheel of fortune over the past couple of days. Quite what random changes he’ll come up with can only be guessed at. Red flags for me would be a return to the three/ five at the back formation and a starting berth for Tomas Soucek. You might as well switch off your set, log off your stream or retire to the bar if you at Old Trafford.

Neither George Earthy, Callum Marshall nor Mohamadou Kanté turned out for the Under 21s last night – so, one or all may have been on the bus up to Manchester. My preference would be a start for Earthy with a more advanced role for Mateus Fernandes in front of Freddie Potts and Soungoutou Magassa. However, if Nuno once again insists on parking the bus and refuses to commit players forward, the chosen formation will be academic anyway. At some point, whether from a free kick or corner, the defences will be breached.

A lot of supporters and media have already written off Luis Guilherme, especially where the narrative is to highlight Tim Steidten’s (rather than the Board’s) role in the Hammer’s current plight. Personally, I think there’s a decent player in there if used correctly. Someone able to carry the ball forward as an attacking midfielder – if there were such a thing in Nuno’s plan. I don’t though see him as a natural stand-in for Crysencio Summerville on the left wing. He will not shine there!

If anyone is feeling positive about tonight’s game, then please let me know what you’ve been drinking (or smoking). I only see one possible outcome and it’s not a good one for the claret and blue. Anyway, I need to scarper pretty quickly. COYI!

West Ham with seven points from their last three games entertain Liverpool who have three points from their last seven games

When we were five games into this Premier League season, the reigning champions Liverpool sat at the top already holding a five point lead. They had won all five games, albeit with some very late winning goals, and had 15 points, five clear of second placed Arsenal. They had scored 11 goals and conceded five and were odds on favourites even at that early stage to retain their title. What has happened next has taken almost everyone by surprise.

We are now 12 games into the season and their five point lead just seven games ago has not just disappeared but they have tumbled down the league table and now are twelfth with 18 points, 11 points off Arsenal at the summit, meaning just one win and six defeats in those games (with nine defeats in their last 12 games across all competitions). They have scored 18 goals and conceded 20 in the Premier League to date. These games include some heavy defeats to Manchester City (0-3), Nottingham Forest (0-3), and PSV Eindhoven (1-4 in the Champions League).

Defensive frailties have been exposed, with Liverpool conceding three goals in three of their last five matches. Injuries have compounded their woes, with Hugo Ekitike, Florian Wirtz, and Jeremie Frimpong all doubts for this weekend’s game, while Alisson Becker faces a race to be fit.

Apparently, it is Liverpool’s worst run since 1953. And what odds would you have got when they were comfortably leading the league that by the end of November Arne Slot would be second favourite at around 2/1 (Daniel Farke is the odds-on favourite) to be the next Premier League manager to be leaving his post? Quite an astonishing turn round that everybody seems to fail to understand the reason why.

And after all that they now face the mighty, massive Hammers at the London Stadium! West Ham come into this fixture unbeaten in their last three Premier League games, having picked up seven points from matches against Newcastle (3-1 win), Burnley (3-2 win), and Bournemouth (2-2 draw). Our seven points from those three Premier League games in November exceeds the four we managed in August, September and October combined. It could have been nine points if the manager had gone about substitutions in a different way at Bournemouth where we surrendered the initiative after holding a two-goal half time lead. (I’ll leave you to review Geoff’s analysis of that game – I’ll say no more here.)

We seem to have found new energy under Nuno Espirito Santo with his (in my opinion) improved team selections in the last three games, with Callum Wilson in fine form, scoring twice against one of his old clubs last weekend. Always a fine goalscorer but why was he hauled off so early? I remember the days when the same eleven who started the game ended it too! Lucas Paqueta returns from suspension (I have mixed feelings about this), and Crysencio Summerville is expected to be fit, boosting our attacking options. We have also recorded back-to-back home wins for the first time this calendar year, and our attacking play has notably improved, scoring eight goals in our last three league matches (compared to seven in the previous nine). However, I still have my reservations about our new manager. Team selections and substitutions mainly but I hope he proves me wrong and is successful in taking us up the table.

Liverpool have dominated this fixture historically, winning 86 of the 153 competitive meetings, with West Ham claiming 29 wins and 38 draws. In recent years, Liverpool have won five of the last six encounters, including a 5-0 thrashing at the London Stadium last December and a 5-1 EFL Cup win. West Ham’s last home victory over Liverpool came in November 2021 (3-2), (didn’t Mr. Klopp blame the bubbles?) but that remains our only win in the last 20 attempts.

The fixture tends to produce goals, with both teams scoring in many recent meetings. Liverpool have scored 25 goals in their nine Premier League visits to the London Stadium against West Ham, including a 5-0 win in this fixture last season. Indeed, Man City (28) and Arsenal (26) are the only visiting sides with more goals at the ground.

Liverpool have lost each of their last five away league games against London sides, as many as in their previous 31. They last had a longer losing run in the capital between September 1952 and April 1954 with eight.

Current form favours West Ham (something that isn’t usually the case when we face Liverpool!). History favours the Merseysiders and bookmakers make them odds on favourites to win the game. I hope we can inflict more pressure on Mr Slot and boost our own position in the table with three points. However, I note that Liverpool are the only Premier League team to have not shared the points in any of their twelve league games so far this season. They haven’t drawn any of their five Champions League games either nor their two league cup games when they exited the competition at the hands of Crystal Palace. They did draw the Community Shield game at the beginning of the season before losing on penalties to Palace. Palace were also one of the teams to beat them in the league too.

Perhaps time for our second 2-2 draw in consecutive weeks? Or our second 3-2 win in consecutive home games?

Do West Ham have a cunning plan to continue their recent run when they travel to the South Coast to face Bournemouth?

Before sitting down to write this preview I have recently been watching a re-run of some Blackadder episodes. That might explain any strange references that have crept in.

Ah, Bournemouth versus West Ham. A fixture so tantalising, it could make even Baldrick’s turnip quiver with anticipation. On one side, Bournemouth, a club whose recent home form is so impressive, you’d think they’d discovered the secret to footballing alchemy, winning four of their last five at the Vitality Stadium and scoring goals with the reckless abandon of Lord Flashheart at a dinner party. Their defence, however, is about as watertight as a leaky rowing boat captained by a drunken sailor, with clean sheets rarer than a cunning plan from Baldrick. However they’ve lost their last two games and conceded seven goals in the process. But in mitigation they were away from home at Villa and Manchester City, two sides in top form that have each picked up 15 points from their last five games. They’ve fallen from second to ninth in no time at all collecting eight points from their last six games (only one more than us). If they fall any further they’ll need a miner’s helmet and a note from their mother explaining their absence from the top half of the table.

West Ham, meanwhile, arrive with the confidence of a man who’s just realised his trousers are on backwards. Seven league defeats already, and our away form is so patchy, it could be mistaken for a moth-eaten pair of Blackadder’s best socks. Our defence has been leaking goals faster than Lord Percy’s brain leaks common sense, and yet, like a stubborn medieval lord, we refuse to go quietly. Having spent much of the season stumbling like Lord Percy at a masked ball we have now achieved the sort of back-to-back victories usually reserved for fairy tales. Firstly we despatched Newcastle with a 3-1 flourish, a home victory as rare as a Mads clean sheet, and then not content with that, just like London buses another one came along straight away with the 3-2 defeat of Burnley. Without those wins, or if we don’t continue to pick up points in the difficult games ahead then we’ll be in the stickiest of sticky situations since Sticky the stick insect got stuck in the sticky icing on a sticky bun.

Tactically, Bournemouth will look to attack with the speed of a fleeing court jester, while West Ham’s approach to away games so far is best described as “hope for the best and blame the referee or VAR.” Both teams have a penchant for high-scoring games, 71 goals in total have been scored so far in their eleven games played this season, so expect goals and drama. My prediction is for Bournemouth to win, unless West Ham’s defence remembers their job. It could be a rout, or a draw, or, knowing football, and West Ham in particular, anything can happen so perhaps a third Hammers win in a row? When did that last happen?

Bournemouth’s Cunning Plan:

“My lord, our plan is as cunning as a cunning fox who’s just been made Professor of Cunning at Cunning College, Cambridge. We shall unleash the likes of Evanilson, Semenyo, and Kluivert. The idea: confuse West Ham’s defence with movement so unpredictable, even Baldrick would struggle to follow. Evanilson will lurk in the box, ready to pounce, while Semenyo and Kluivert create chaos on the flanks. Our midfield will pass the ball so much, the Hammers will be left dizzier than Lord Percy after a night on the razzle. And of course we’ll try to create as many corners as we can as well as take long throws into their box. We know they don’t like that!”

West Ham’s Cunning Plan:

“Right, chaps, our plan is so cunning you could stick a tail on it and call it a fox. We’ll defend deep—so deep, our centre-backs may need a map and a packed lunch to find the halfway line. We’ve continued to practice how to defend corners and we’re determined not to concede any more soft goals from set pieces. Our pacier midfielders will link together nicely and then, when Bournemouth least expect it, we’ll launch the ball forward with all the subtlety of Lord Flashheart entering a ballroom. Callum Wilson will dash behind their defence like a rat up a drainpipe. Alternatively if he’s fit to return, Füllkrug (that’s if he’s not already halfway to Milan, Germany or wherever he is going in January) will cause chaos with the grace of a drunken Blackadder at a royal banquet. Bowen and Summerville will add pace and trickery. Well that’s the plan anyway. And if we still lose, we’ll blame the referee, VAR, the pitch, the weather, Sullivan and Brady, and possibly the alignment of the stars.”

We have just six games to play before Christmas. The saying goes that there are no easy games in the Premier League, and the fixtures before the big man comes down the chimney are certainly not easy, in fact we have quite a daunting run. Four of the six are away from the London Stadium with just two at home. We face the teams (in this order) who are currently 9th, 8th, 7th, 11th, 6th and 2nd in the current table. Following this weekend’s trip to Bournemouth, there is another away game on the south coast at Brighton, as well as two visits to Manchester. In the two home games we face Liverpool and Villa. The six points from the last two games were invaluable in ensuring we were not cut adrift in the bottom three, but at least tagged on to the teams above, but some adverse results in the games coming up and it could change again, and not for the better. We would probably be happy to average a point a game in those six before two home games between Christmas and the New Year at home to Fulham and Brighton take us to the mid-point of the season. Ten points from the next eight would take us up to 20 at half-way which is probably close to where we need to be to ensure a further season in the Premier League.

West Ham v Burnley Preview: Ninety Minutes of Clarety At The Bottom Of The Table

A pivotal test for West Ham as Burnley visit the London Stadium for a basement Premier League clash. Can they build on last week’s win over Newcastle or is it back to the drawing board for Nuno?

Last weekend’s victory against Newcastle was as spirited on the pitch as it was surprising for fans. Joy and disbelief at last brought a smile to supporter’s faces; and put a spring in their step. A shaft of sunlight breaking through the London Stadium gloom as a run of four successive home defeats was put to an end.

Who knew that energy, commitment and determination from the players might energise the crowd and create a positive, noisy atmosphere in the stadium? No-one is ever going to be roaring on a string of needless sideways and backward passes. If you want supporters to be the 12th man, then give them something to shout about. Something that gets them off their seats – other than to avoid the crowds in the half-time bar or Stratford Underground.

What must be remembered amidst the euphoria of victory now that the dust has settled is that this was just one game. Just as winning at Nottingham Forest in August turned into a false dawn, it would be foolish to declare a corner turned until consistency in approach, spirit and performance levels has been demonstrated.

A safe return to the calmer waters of mid-table obscurity will not be assured without resolution to the striker debacle – as early as possible – in the January transfer window. Until then, the jaws of relegation will be an ominous threat to the Hammer’s survival.

Team selection should for today’s game should be a no-brainer. If it is not the same eleven who started last week, then something is seriously wrong. Only the insanity of a coach with psychotic delusions of tactical genius would seek to make personnel changes following the rare display of cohesion in the Newcastle game. Surely, Nuno has learned his lesson from the six valuable points recklessly sacrificed to Brentford and Leeds.

On the other hand, a touch more adventure on the bench would be a welcome change. But with Callum Marshall, George Earthy, Preston Fearon, Ezra Mayers and Mohamadou Kante all turning out in the U21’s 3-0 defeat of Liverpool last night, this may be wishful thinking. Stocking the bench with four defensive midfield players and with no place for a striker severely limits the game changing options available.

Today’s fixture sees another early season six pointer with the visit of newly promoted Burnley. The Clarets sit one place above West Ham with three more points on the board. To date, they have recorded victories at home to Sunderland and Leeds, and away at Wolves.

In football’s golden age of bobble hats, wooden rattles, terraces, slide tackles, muddy pitches, magic sponges, maximum wages and Brylcreem, Burnley were one of the country’s leading sides. A 1960’s version of Brighton built upon community, continuity, scouting and player development. They won the First Division in 1959/60, reached the European Cup quarter-finals in 1960/61 and were runners-up in both the league and FA Cup the season after.

However, the 1970s saw a steady decline. They were relegated to the third tier in 1980, to the fourth tier in 1985 and in 1987 only avoided dropping into the Conference on the final day of the season. For all West Ham’s many failings, they are one of just eight clubs never to have fallen below the top two tiers since joining the league – yet!

Today, Burnley FC, like an increasing proportion of the Premier League, has American owners – the same group also owns Espanyol in Spain – who will be aiming to consolidate the club’s position in the topflight following a yo-yo series of promotions and relegations. It will be a huge achievement if they manage to pull it off with a relatively inexperienced squad.

Although few of the Burnley team are household names, their manager (Scott Parker) and captain (Josh Cullen) need no introduction to West Ham fans.

Parker had four excellent seasons in a West Ham shirt at an individual level. He was a three-times ‘Hammer Of The Year’ and even managed to win the Football Writers’ Association Footballer of the Year award during the Avram Grant relegation season.

He has had a chequered career since turning to management, winning promotions at Fulham, Bournemouth and Burnley but never being able to sustain the momentum in the top tier. It is a paradox of football management when up-and-coming coaches defy expectations to win promotion but then carry the can for failing to bridge the financial gap that the Premier League represents. Burnley’s previous manager Vincent Kompany provides a fascinating contrast, however. Described as naïve, stubborn and inexperienced during a hopeless 24-point relegation season at Turf Moor, he now boasts a 75%-win ratio since landing on his feet at Bayern Munich.

Cullen is a former West Ham academy product who was never able to make it at his boyhood club. With less than ten league minutes to his name across three substitute appearances, Cullen was eventually transferred to Anderlecht before settling at Burnley in the summer of 2022.

For those enamoured with football stats (other than the ones that really matter) the conclusion might be that the visitors are a very poor side. The lowest xG, fewest shots, most saves, highest xG against, lowest pass completion and lowest possession. Yet they are second only to Tottenham in terms of goals scored to shots on target and have outscored West Ham 12 to nine this season. Defensively, they feature towards the top end on blocking shots, interceptions and clearances.

This will present a very different challenge for West Ham than the Newcastle game. While the Magpies were poor on the day, the game remained open as they focused on attack whenever possible – they simply didn’t do it at all well. Burnley, by contrast, will look to defend in numbers, maintain a compact shape and seek opportunities to counterattack at pace along the flanks.

Breaking down organised walls of defensive resistance has not been a core West Ham competency of late. Do we have the guile, inspiration and ruthlessness to carve openings and take the few chances that come our way? The West Ham creative juices need to be in full and effective flow for a change. This is the kind of game where the first goal will prove critical to the complexion of the match and the way it develops.

It goes without saying that a second successive home win in seven days – ahead of yet another dull international break – would be a massive bonus. Show us what you can do, boys. COYI!     

Will West Ham be hammered again? Are the Magpies ready to nail down the points in the London Stadium?

If West Ham’s season were a car, it would be a clapped-out Vauxhall Astra, coughing and spluttering its way up the Premier League motorway, hazard lights blinking, and the “check engine light” glowing brighter than the London Stadium floodlights. The Hammers’ start has been so poor, even their own shadows seem reluctant to follow them onto the pitch.

West Ham’s recent form is like a leaky umbrella in a monsoon—utterly useless. Six defeats in their last eight, and the only thing falling faster than our league position is the optimism of our supporters. The new manager, Nuno Espírito Santo, is trying to plug holes in a ship that’s not just sinking but actively inviting water in for a swim.

Meanwhile, Newcastle arrive with the confidence of a magpie in a budgie cage. Yes, they’ve had their own wobbles, defensive injuries, and a few patchy results, but compared to West Ham, they look like a well-oiled machine. Eddie Howe’s men have enough firepower to make the Hammers’ backline quake like a jelly on a washing machine.

The Hammers have conceded more goals than any other team in the Premier League so far (20 in just 9 games) and have the worst goal difference (-13). We’ve found the net just 7 times (only Forest have scored fewer goals), and we’ve picked up just one point in the last six games (even Wolves have two!). Our defence facing Newcastle’s attack will be like a sandcastle facing the incoming tide. And woe betide even giving away corners. With nine goals conceded from set pieces (no other team has let in more than three) the danger begins every time the ball is placed in the quadrant by our corner flag.

Newcastle haven’t been a free scoring side themselves, only averaging one goal a game in their nine games; only the bottom three (including ourselves) have scored fewer. But on the other hand they are mean defensively; only conceding eight (only four teams have conceded fewer goals).

Just wait until you see the team sheet! Some of Nuno’s team selections look like they were picked by spinning a wheel of fortune to pick the player and then throwing two dice to decide on the position. He never did manage to throw nine. Nuno is trying a new style of tactical innovation that is hard to comprehend. He tried it once and it didn’t work. So what was the solution? That’s right – try it again. So as we prepare to face Newcastle keep an eye on the line-up. We can probably expect a performance that’s less ‘101 Greatest Hits’ and more ‘Now That’s What I Call Confusing 101’!

Up front with Nuno the false nine is all the rage. This is a striker who doesn’t actually play as a striker but instead wanders around like a lost roadie looking for the stage door. The opposition centre backs get the cigars out while they are left marking empty space, while the false nine is busy dropping deep because that is where he really wants to play. Effectively it’s like playing without a striker at all. It’s like Phil Collins playing ‘In The Air Tonight’ without his drum kit.  

Who came up with the idea of inverted full backs? Is this a Nuno invention or do other teams do it? Why play Scarles at right back? I don’t think he’s played there before and if he has, it doesn’t look like he has. And at the same time why play Wan Bissaka or Walker-Peters at left back which is Scarles natural position. They can play there if necessary but surely they are both better suited to the right back role? And when this inversion doesn’t work why not try it again? Unbelievable Jeff. Ollie Scarles shoulder injury will probably ensure that Nuno doesn’t try this one for a third time.

If West Ham manage to win, and I’d love it just love it (insert Kevin Keegan voice) if we can beat them and pull off the shock of our season. But it would be as surprising as finding a twenty pound note in an old coat pocket. More likely, Newcastle will leave London with three points and we will be left searching for positives like a miner with a broken torch. Although football managers always do manage to find positives even after being defeated.

Come on you irons! Surprise me.

After a poor performance against Brentford on Monday night, West Ham visit Leeds on Friday. Can they turn it around?

I was really hoping that the game against Brentford would be the turning point of our season. But my hopes were dashed with a performance that ranks amongst the worst I have seen in 67 years of following West Ham. How many variations have we seen to describe West Ham on Monday night? Dreadful, poor, abysmal, terrible, appalling, shocking, awful, dire, ghastly, bad, abominable, atrocious, grim, lousy, horrific, shameful, hammered. These are just some of those I have collected so far. No doubt you have seen others. Add your own.

Having grown up with strikers that hunted in pairs, for example Dick and Keeble, Hurst and Byrne, Robson and Cross, Cross and Goddard, McAvennie and Cottee, Morley and Allen, Defoe and Kanoute, Harewood and Sheringham, what did we have to offer up front on Monday night? Not even a lone striker such as Antonio for example. No, we had a ‘false 9’ in Paqueta who to me didn’t look too interested at even being on the pitch. We had an England number 9 sitting on the bench, albeit one past his best but surely he should have been called upon once we were down. But no, five substitutes and he wasn’t even used. When he came on for a cameo at Forest he looked decent enough didn’t he?

What else? We had last year’s Hammer of the Year (Wan Bissaka) sitting on the bench alongside perhaps the shining light and outstanding signing of the summer (Diouf). In their full back places we had Scarles playing at right back (was this the first time he’d ever played there? It looked like it) and Walker-Peters at left back (surely better on the right?). We don’t have a lot to choose from as centre backs but the combination of Kilman and Todibo were never likely to be a match for the strength of Thiago. All over the pitch Brentford looked stronger, more powerful, faster and more assured with the ball.

In midfield we had the pairing of Soucek and Irving. Between them they were no match for Henderson on his own let alone the others in the Brentford midfield. Where was Magassa? Wasn’t he the kind of player we signed to provide more energy in midfield? Bowen and Fernandes were way off their best and Summerville could perhaps have been more useful with a centre forward on the pitch.

Without dwelling too much on the statistics of the game they do tell a story. We were completely outplayed in every category—xG, shots (22-7), shots on target (7-1), touches in the opponent’s box (42-14), possession, passing accuracy, and many others. We were at home against Brentford, not a top half side.

So, after playing the final match of the last matchday we are first up on the next one when we travel to Leeds on Friday night. Previous fixtures have little significance as to what is likely to happen, but in those meetings Leeds have beaten us more than twice as many times as we’ve beaten them, but we’ve won four of the last six. And the last time we met them on a Friday night we beat them. But that’s clutching at straws!

After Monday night I am expecting very little. Leeds are slight odds on to win the game whereas we are little more than 3/1. Anyone who saw us on Monday night wouldn’t waste their money.

These are just some of the comments from Nuno’s press conference on Wednesday:

“When the game against Brentford finished, we need to take the frustration, commitment and motivation so that we can play better. This is the step we need to take. Individually we have to improve our players. We need to improve their fitness, tactical awareness – everything. Then, we concede a lot of set-pieces – too much – but we defend them pretty well. We are improving on that but we need to improve on not conceding. Some of them are easy situations we can solve. So we are working on that. It’s not only set-pieces or being compact. It’s about improving overall. We didn’t do enough offensively against Brentford. We need to have the freedom to attack. But it’s difficult to find that balance.”

Can we do all this before Friday night? I’m really hoping that we can be a lot better but there was little to suggest that will be the case. Things don’t look promising do they?