Category: Preview

The Under The Hammers Supercomputer has been rebooted to re-run West Ham’s survival equation

With nine games to go the supercomputer has updated the maths behind West Ham’s chances of staying up. Survival that once looked desperate is now doable. We are not safe or comfortable but it’s closer than it looked a few weeks ago.

Since the Under The Hammers Supercomputer, Deep Block, last ran its projections (prior to the Bournemouth game) three of the twelve remaining fixtures have now been completed, replacing twelve hypothetical outcomes with more hard data to assess our survival chances.

Results from those games:

  • West Ham 0-0 Bournemouth (H) – Draw (predicted draw)
  • Liverpool 5-2 West Ham (A) – Loss (predicted loss)
  • Fulham 0-1 West Ham (A) – Win (predicted draw)

These results delivered 4 points from a possible 9, outperforming the original projection of two draws and a loss from these fixtures by two points. In particular, the away win at Fulham is a significant upgrade on the supercomputer’s expectations and materially improves the survival equation.

After 29 matches, West Ham now sit 18th in the Premier League with 28 points, level on points with Nottingham Forest in 17th but behind on goal difference. The teams in the relegation dogfight (the bottom six) currently read:

• 15th: Leeds – 31 points
• 16th: Tottenham – 29 points
• 17th: Nottingham Forest – 28 points
• 18th: West Ham United – 28 points
• 19th: Burnley – 19 points
• 20th: Wolves – 16 points

Crucially, the safety line is currently 29 points based on the season to date (exactly a point a game), meaning West Ham are now just one point behind that current safety level, with momentum firmly shifting in our favour.

With 9 games remaining, the survival target can now be recalibrated:

• Likely safety threshold at current performance levels: 38 points
• Points currently held: 28
• Points required: 10 from the final 9 matches

That equates to 1.11 points per match, which is lower than the rate required in the original model and less than West Ham’s recent form (1.33 per match in last six games).

Of course, results elsewhere can change the safety threshold and 38 might not be enough. But based on current figures Deep Block believes that a spread of 38-40 will be the level needed.

The upcoming schedule still presents major challenges, but the pressure has eased slightly thanks to the win at Fulham:

  • Manchester City (H) – Free hit
  • Aston Villa (A) – Low probability, but a point possible
  • Wolves (H) – Must‑win
  • Crystal Palace (A) – Likely draw but winnable
  • Everton (H) – Crucial and winnable
  • Brentford (A) – Likely draw
  • Arsenal (H) – Low probability
  • Newcastle (A) – Low probability
  • Leeds (H) – Potential season‑definer, perhaps must win?

The original identification of Wolves, Everton and Leeds at home as decisive fixtures to win remains valid. The difference now is that the margin for error has widened slightly.

What has changed since the original projection? The Fulham win is pivotal; it reduces the required points tally and shifts psychological pressure onto our rivals. Forest and Tottenham have failed to pull away allowing West ham to close the gap. Burnley and Wolves are effectively gone, leaving only one realistic relegation place still in play.

Deep Block originally projected a 37‑point finish and 18th place. Based on real results to date, that projection now reads closer to 39 points. Our survival chances have improved materially over the past three games. While relegation remains a genuine risk, the path to safety is now clearer and more achievable than when the original model was run.

If West Ham can beat Wolves, Everton and Leeds, and add two draws elsewhere (the games at Palace and Brentford are the most likely) as per the original forecasts then Deep Block predicts that Premier League survival is more likely than not. But the margins remain tight and depend upon results elsewhere. Failure to achieve the predicted eleven points from these games will likely need points gained elsewhere in the more challenging fixtures.

Assuming that Burnley and Wolves are as good as down (albeit not yet mathematically) the current form (last six games) of the four teams likely facing the final relegation place is as follows:

West Ham: 8 points
Leeds: 5 points
Forest: 3 points
Tottenham: 1 point

If that form continues into the final nine fixtures then we would be home and dry. But the games towards the end of the season tend to be unpredictable. Three games ago Deep Block predicted that we would probably just fall short. It now predicts that we might just be safe. It may yet come down to the final day. And if it does, well this is West Ham. We wouldn’t have it any other way.

The Big Names Advance in the FA Cup As West Ham and Brentford Chase A Place In The Last Eight

As West Ham prepare to face Brentford for a place in the FA Cup Quarter Finals, do the biggest Premier League clubs really lack interest in the FA Cup?

West Ham host Brentford on Monday evening with a place in the FA Cup quarter‑finals at stake, completing the fifth round of the competition. The tie offers an intriguing contrast in styles and priorities, with both clubs viewing the FA Cup as a genuine opportunity for progress, but for us of course the priority has to be ensuring that we are playing Premier League football next season. Nevertheless I would like to think that we really want to progress in the competition, but no doubt some would disagree and want us to forget the cup and concentrate on survival.

I’d like to think that West Ham will see the match as a chance to build momentum and pursue silverware. With (hopefully?) a strong home atmosphere at the London Stadium, I hope that we approach the game aggressively, particularly given the success of several elite clubs already reaching the quarter‑finals. I believe that progress in the competition would add to the progress that we have made in previous weeks.

Brentford, meanwhile, have shown themselves to be well‑organised and difficult opponents. Their tactical discipline and ability to frustrate ‘stronger’ teams make them a dangerous proposition, especially if we fail to control the tempo of the game. Brentford’s willingness to press and counter could prove decisive.

With no replays and everything decided on the night, the match is likely to be tense and finely balanced. The winner will join an increasingly elite group in the quarter‑finals, further underlining the FA Cup’s continued relevance in modern English football.

In recent years, it has become common to argue that the biggest Premier League clubs are no longer truly interested in the FA Cup. This theory is based on factors such as fixture congestion, financial priorities and the growing importance of European qualification. However, the progress of Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City into the quarter‑finals of the 2025–26 FA Cup strongly challenges this assumption and suggests that elite clubs still value the competition.

Those who argue that big clubs lack interest point primarily to the modern football calendar. Top Premier League sides regularly compete in domestic league matches, European tournaments and the cup competitions, often playing many extra matches in a season. With payment for league position and European qualification offering far greater financial rewards than the FA Cup, managers are frequently accused of prioritising league position over cup success. Heavy squad rotation in early rounds is often cited as evidence that the FA Cup has been relegated to secondary importance.

There is some validity to this argument. Elite managers are under pressure to manage player workloads and avoid injuries, particularly during decisive stages of the league season. As a result, weakened line‑ups can increase the likelihood of shock exits (Crystal Palace for example) reinforcing the perception that the FA Cup is expendable. However, rotation alone does not necessarily imply disinterest. Instead, it reflects the depth and resources available to top clubs in the modern era. Two in particular, Arsenal and Manchester City possess squads strong enough to rotate without abandoning competitiveness.

I fail to understand why mid-table clubs such as Palace and Fulham (on Sunday) cannot do a better job of squad rotation to ensure progress in the competition. I know that league position brings a bigger financial reward but fans have other priorities. Take Fulham yesterday for example. I’m not their manager but if I was I’d start with my strongest team, try to get a goal or two and then rest some players. But no, Southampton held them and then Silva brought on the big guns late in the game (too late), only for the Saints to progress with a penalty in added time. It serves them right.

I’m not sure if Sunderland did the same but you wouldn’t expect a mid-table Premier League team with nothing else to play for other than league position to be beaten by the side at the foot of League One.

The 2025–26 FA Cup provides strong counter‑evidence to the theory of declining interest. Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City were the first four teams to reach the quarter‑finals, and all did so by negotiating challenging fixtures (well perhaps not Arsenal!). These were not symbolic victories or dead‑rubber matches; they involved competitive performances, often away from home, against motivated opposition. The presence of four of the Premier League’s most successful clubs at this stage suggests clear intent rather than indifference.

Furthermore, success in the FA Cup still carries significant prestige. It remains the oldest domestic cup competition in world football and continues to offer silverware, historical significance and a route into European competition. For managers judged on trophies and for clubs seeking to maintain winning cultures, the FA Cup remains an important objective. Once teams reach the latter stages, selection patterns typically reflect this, with stronger line‑ups and increased tactical focus. And there is nothing better for the fans than a day out at Wembley. This now extends to the semi-finals as well as the final. Our victories in 1964, 1975 and 1980 live long in my memory even though they are now many years in the past.

In conclusion, while financial realities and fixture congestion have changed how elite clubs approach the FA Cup, they have not removed its importance. The progress of Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City into the quarter‑finals demonstrates that the biggest Premier League clubs are still invested in the competition. Rather than abandoning the FA Cup, they are managing it strategically, ensuring competitiveness without sacrificing broader season objectives. I hope that we can join them in the draw for the quarter finals. Southampton or Port Vale at the London Stadium would be good if we progress. What are the chances of the ‘big four’ avoiding each other? That would get the conspiracy theorists going. COYI!

West Ham – The Fight For Survival – Eleven Games. No More Margin for Error

With 11 games left and 25 points on the board, West Ham United’s season has reached the point where every kick, every decision, every missed chance feels heavier than the last. The maths is simple. The reality is anything but.

Most signs point to 38 points being the absolute minimum number this season. That means we need at least 13 more points between now and May. Not impossible. But there’s no room left for wasted opportunities.

Last weekend’s 0–0 draw with Bournemouth felt like one of those moments we may look back on. It wasn’t a bad result. It wasn’t a disaster. But it felt like two points dropped. When rivals are slipping and the door is ajar, you have to force your way through.

Because doors don’t stay open for long in relegation battles.

A Fixture List That Pulls No Punches

There’s no hiding from it: the run‑in is brutal.

Trips to Liverpool, Aston Villa and Newcastle. Home games against Manchester City and Arsenal. On paper, those are fixtures you circle and hope for a miracle. Anything from them is a bonus.

So where is this season really going to be decided?

At the London Stadium.
Against teams we have to beat.

  • Wolves (H)
  • Everton (H)
  • Leeds (H)

Those matches aren’t just important. They’re season‑defining. Lose any of them and the pressure multiplies instantly.

Away from home, trips to Fulham, Crystal Palace and Brentford carry just as much weight. Get something from those games and suddenly the table looks kinder. Come away empty-handed and the fear creeps in.

A realistic return across the run‑in might look like:

  • 3 wins
  • 3 draws
  • 5 defeats

That gets us to 37 points.

And that’s the terrifying part.

Thirty‑seven might not be enough. Thirty-eight might not be enough either. We might need forty, or perhaps forty-two? From the realistic return above can we turn two of the draws into wins? That gets us to forty-one. I’ve a feeling that would do it.

Which means an extra goal in two games. A late winner perhaps? Holding onto a lead instead of dropping more points from a winning position. A moment or two of courage or quality could be the difference between survival and heartbreak.

Why Hope Still Lives

For all the nerves, this team has given us reason to believe.

Eleven points from the last six games tells its own story. Performances have improved. There’s fight again. There’s structure. There’s belief. This side looks far more like a team that expects to compete than one simply hoping to survive.

Keep that level up, and averaging just over a point a game from here isn’t unrealistic. It still might not be enough. Do we need 37, 38, 40, 42? Who knows? It’s not in our hands now.  

But the warning is clear: the games we have to win must be won. There’s no safety net left. Lose those, and we’re relying on favours that rarely arrive.

The Bigger Picture

At the bottom, things are tightening.

Wolves and Burnley are almost gone. One relegation place remains, and it’s a scrap between several nervous clubs. Forest, Tottenham and Leeds all have reasons to worry. None are safe. Neither are we.

West Ham aren’t doomed. But we’re not comfortable either.

We’re on the tightrope now – every step deliberate, every wobble dangerous.

What This Comes Down To

Forget the spreadsheets. Forget the projections.

This is about:

  • Winning the games that matter
  • Turning home advantage into points
  • Finding something – anything – in the toughest moments

It’s about players standing up when it hurts.
About the crowd dragging the team forward when legs feel heavy.
About refusing to let the season slip quietly away.

Eleven games.
Eleven chances to fight.
Eleven chances to prove this club belongs here.

Do enough – and we survive.
Fall short – and we’ll spend the summer replaying the moments where it slipped through our fingers.

The season isn’t over yet.
But from here on, every game is a final.

Cup Dreams or Banana Skins? West Ham visit Burton in Classic FA Cup Fourth Round Contest

As a West Ham fan, the build-up to this Saturday’s FA Cup Fourth Round tie against Burton Albion is a familiar mix of anticipation and nerves. Our league campaign has been a struggle so far, with the team sitting 18th in the Premier League and every point feeling increasingly precious. Yet, there’s a sense that the FA Cup could be the spark we need to turn our season around. I’ve read some that say forget the cup and concentrate on staying in the Premier League. I don’t agree.  

Saying this, our recent form has shown signs of life and we are not down yet. 2026 started badly with a comprehensive 3-0 defeat at bottom of the table Wolves, one of our worst performances in years (and there have been a few!). Following this three days later the home defeat to Forest (unlucky as it was it some respects) suggested that our chances of escaping the drop were disappearing fast. The cup win over QPR, even if it took extra time, seemed to inject some much-needed confidence into the squad, and we began to feel the mood shifting ever so slightly.

The last five games since then have yielded 10 points in the league with away wins at Tottenham and Burnley, a home win over Sunderland, a 3-2 defeat at Chelsea after leading 2-0 at half-time, and Tuesday’s 1-1 draw with Manchester United with their equaliser coming in the sixth minute of time added on. The board indicated seven minutes. Where did that come from? Of course we might have been happy with the prospect of one point before the game but Sesko’s finish was a body blow and it seemed like two points lost rather than one gained. It means we have now regained sole leadership of one particular league table – points dropped from a winning position – we are now at the top with 20. If just some of those leads had been retained how different the league table would look now.

Of course, as any West Ham supporter knows, the FA Cup is never straightforward for us. Our history in the competition in my lifetime is varied, three-time winners (the last one coming in 1980 over 45 years ago), and twice runners-up, but it’s also littered with those infamous “banana skins.” Losses to the likes of AFC Wimbledon, Wigan, and West Brom in recent years have left scars alongside those from years gone by – the list is endless – Huddersfield, Stoke, Plymouth, Blackburn, Swindon, Huddersfield again, Coventry, Middlesbrough, Blackpool, Huddersfield (for a third time!), Hull, Hereford, Newport County, Wrexham, Watford, Sheffield Wednesday, QPR, Norwich, Torquay, Barnsley, Luton, QPR (again), Grimsby, Wrexham (again), Swansea, Tranmere, Sheffield Wednesday (again), Sheffield Wednesday (for a 3rd time), Nottingham Forest, and Sheffield United. Those are just some that I can recall from my many years of following the team and to them can be added a similar number of League Cup exits to lower league opposition. There’s always that nagging worry that we might slip up once again.

Burton Albion, for their part, are having a tough time in League One, sitting 21st and fighting relegation. Their league form has been poor, with no wins in their last five, but the FA Cup has brought out a different side of them. Fourteen goals in three cup games is no fluke, and they’ll be coming into this tie with nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Still, there’s reason for optimism. On paper, our technical quality and finishing should see us through, even if the manager decides to rotate and give some fringe players a chance. The cup is a chance for those on the fringes to stake a claim, and for the team as a whole to build momentum for the league run-in. But we can’t afford to be complacent. Burton’s attacking form in the cup is a warning, and our own history tells us that nothing can be taken for granted. Most pundits are tipping us to win, and I’d like to believe we’ll get the job done, but the magic of the FA Cup means you never quite know. I’m expecting an open game, probably with goals at both ends, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it turns into a real test of character. But how good would it be to be in the draw for the fifth round?

Claret & Blue Survival Showdown – Burnley and West Ham battle for Premier League future

Both West Ham and Burnley are in the relegation zone, making this a true six-pointer. Burnley sit 19th with 15 points, while West Ham are 18th with 20 points. A win for either side could be pivotal (is probably a must) in the fight for Premier League survival. A draw will be of little help to both teams. These are the two teams that have conceded the most goals in the Premier League this season.

Recent Form

Burnley
  • Last 6 League Matches: 0 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, 3 points
  • Season: 3 wins, 6 draws, 15 defeats, 15 points
  • Season goals: For 25, Against 47, Difference -22
  • Last Match: Lost 3-0 to Sunderland
  • Home Form: Just two wins in 12 home fixtures, but three draws in their last four at Turf Moor
  • Defensive Issues: Conceded two or more goals in four of their last five home games.
West Ham
  • Last 6 League Matches: 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats, 7 points
  • Season: 5 wins, 5 draws, 14 defeats, 20 points
  • Season Goals: For 29, Against 48, Difference -19
  • Last Match: Lost 3-2 at Chelsea after leading 2-0
  • Away Form: Only one win in our last ten away games; we have conceded in 22 consecutive matches
  • Recent Upswing: Back-to-back wins against Tottenham and Sunderland before the Chelsea defeat.

Other Match Facts

Burnley are winless in their last seven Premier League games against West Ham, drawing three and losing four having won four of their previous five against us.

West Ham have won 10 out of 19 (53%) of their Premier League games against Burnley.

West Ham have already lost at Sunderland and Leeds this season. We’ve not lost against all three promoted clubs in a single campaign since 2009-10, which ironically included a 2-1 defeat away to Burnley.

Burnley are winless in their last 15 Premier League games (D5 L10), their longest winless run for 135 years in top-flight football. (D3 L4), having won four

Summary

This match is crucial for both clubs’ survival hopes. West Ham’s recent attacking form and Burnley’s defensive frailties suggest the Hammers have a slight edge, but both teams are under immense pressure and prone to lapses. Expect a hard-fought, nervy encounter with plenty at stake.

If the teams above us maintain their current points per game levels then the cut off point to avoid relegation is likely to be around 42 points, a higher figure than in most seasons. We currently have 20, so a minimum of 22 points will probably be needed in our last 14 games (it could be less, but it could be even more) to be playing in the Premier League next season. Where can 22 points come from? Make your predictions for the games to come and see how many you think we can get. Imagine how much better off we would be if we hadn’t thrown away 18 points so far this season from winning positions! Our remaining fixtures are:

Burnley (A)
Manchester United (H)
Bournemouth (H)
Liverpool (A)
Fulham (A)
Manchester City (H)
Aston Villa (A)
Wolves (H)
Crystal Palace (A)
Everton (H)
Brentford (A)
Arsenal (H)
Newcastle (A)
Leeds (H)

Hope Springs Eternal: West Ham’s Survival Dream – Can Recent Form Continue in London Derby at Stamford Bridge

Chelsea host West Ham United at Stamford Bridge in a London derby with both teams seeking crucial points. Chelsea are in strong form, having won four consecutive matches in all competitions, including a comeback victory against Napoli in the Champions League on Wednesday night. They currently sit fifth in the Premier League and are pushing for a top-four finish. West Ham, meanwhile, have revived our survival hopes with back-to-back league wins, but remain in the relegation zone, five points from safety.

Historically, Chelsea have dominated this fixture, winning their last four meetings against us. The Blues have also won their last two Premier League games against the Hammers by an aggregate score of 8-0. West Ham have managed just one win in their last 18 Premier League away games at Stamford Bridge, losing the last four in a row since November 2019.

West Ham’s recent improvement is built on a more resilient defence although we still haven’t kept a clean sheet in Premier League games for ages. Only Burnley have allowed more shots on goal than West Ham this season and we have the worst goals conceded record in the league.

The attack has been strengthened with the early transfer window signings of Pablo and Taty, Wilson looks like he is staying, Summerville is in excellent form, and Bowen is always an attacking threat. New signing Adama Traore could make his debut, with manager Nuno keen to use his pace. Traore once destroyed West Ham when playing for Middlesbrough a few seasons back but hasn’t really fulfilled what was once tremendous promise. So many are writing him off already, but he hasn’t cost a lot and I, for one, will not make any judgement until we’ve seen him. Wilson wasn’t a popular signing at the start but he has proved to be useful and the critics have been silenced for now.

Nuno is obviously very keen on Traore. As quoted in the week “I know him very well, I have worked with him many years and I know him which is why I said he is unique. There are not many players with his ability on one-v-one situations. There are not many players with his speed, with his pace and I think he is going to give us many, many things. We need his threat he possesses. His energy, not only on the pitch but in the dressing room and training ground he is a special person to have around.” So I think we can expect to see him sooner rather than later.

Fernandes had an excellent game against Sunderland; it’s hard to believe he has never before scored a goal from outside the area with those two wonder strikes, the first going in, and the second (possibly even better) striking the underside of the bar. Paqueta has left the club so we won’t have to put up any longer with a player who didn’t seem interested any more with his mind set on returning to Brazil. A few moments of magic have been mixed with some mediocre displays.

While he remained he was always going to play whilst Nuno was in charge. In the week his comments on the situation were “You cannot replace Lucas because he is unique. He is a number 10 that has special qualities. You cannot find many players like Lucas in the transfer window, you cannot find them. We have to move forward with that we have.” But is it coincidence that our wins and upturn in form have been with Paqueta not playing?

Chelsea have been scoring early, netting five goals in the first ten minutes of matches this season. West Ham, conversely, have conceded nine goals in the opening ten minutes, more than any other Premier League side. Chelsea’s home form is solid, but they have dropped points from winning positions recently, so maintaining focus will be key for them. Chelsea have scored the opening goal in five of their last six Premier League games but won only one of those. Cole Palmer returned from injury and could start after a strong cameo against Napoli. Joao Pedro is in excellent form, scoring twice in the Champions League and expected to lead the attack.

Looking at the league table and recent form, only Bournemouth of the teams in the bottom half of the table (from Sunderland 11th downwards) have picked up more points in their last six games (8) than we have (7). Worryingly Leeds and Forest, the teams immediately above us have also amassed seven. Palace are in freefall collecting just two points from the last six so we must hope that they, and perhaps one or two others continue with their poor form.

Most analysts and betting sites favour Chelsea on Saturday given their form and home advantage. The consensus prediction is a Chelsea win, with scores ranging from 2-1 to 3-1. Let’s hope our recent momentum makes us competitive enough to spring a surprise. With just fifteen games of the season left we have to start closing the gap on the teams above us.

Can West Ham fix the leaky roof or will Sunderland rain on our parade?

Desperation meets ambition at the London Stadium in the early Saturday kick-off as West Ham fight for survival and Sunderland chase European dreams. The match is crucial for both sides; West Ham are fighting to escape the relegation zone, while Sunderland, newly promoted, are pushing for European qualification.

West Ham sit in 18th place in the league on 17 points, five points adrift of safety, which effectively could be six with our inferior goal difference. With just 16 games of the season left, closing the gap on 17th place quickly is important if we are to have any chance of avoiding the drop.

We ended a 10-game winless run with a 2-1 victory at Tottenham last weekend and also won against QPR in the FA Cup. But we have only one win in the last six home games; and we have conceded in 16 consecutive league home matches (going back into last season) and have no clean sheet in the last 19 Premier League games, conceding 44 goals this season, the worst defensive record in the Premier League.

In fact if you had visited the London Stadium to watch every game for the last one and a half seasons you would have only seen two games where the opposition failed to score a goal, a 0-0 draw against Everton in November 2024 and a 2-0 win over Leicester in February 2025 (our last home league clean sheet!). Surely we cannot go a whole year without keeping a clean sheet at home!

If you go back to the campaign before last (2023-24) we actually kept four clean sheets in the season! If you are looking for any kind of omen in that season we kept three clean sheets in a row either side of Christmas at the London Stadium just a few days after a 2-1 victory at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Do you think we can do it again? No, nor do I. But can our defence finally lock the door, or will Sunderland find the spare key?

Sunderland have defied pre-season expectations and currently sit in 9th place on 33 points. They beat Crystal Palace 2-1 last weekend, ending a five-match winless run, and also progressed in the FA Cup. However they are winless in their last six away games and have struggled to score on the road. They have been solid defensively with the third-fewest goals conceded in the league, but they have not kept a clean sheet in four games.

We are desperate for points to escape the relegation zone. Our recent last minute win at Spurs has lifted spirits, but defensive frailties remain a major concern. Newly promoted Sunderland have exceeded expectations and are pushing for European qualification. However, their away form is a worry for them.

We can expect a tense, hard-fought encounter with goals at both ends. The most likely outcomes are a draw or a narrow win for either side, with Sunderland’s away struggles and West Ham’s defensive issues perhaps balancing the scales. Head to head we have lost just one of our last 12 Premier League home games against Sunderland, winning nine and drawing two, going down 3-0 in May 2011. We’ve won our last three all by the same 1-0 scoreline. But a fourth in a row would seem unlikely as we don’t keep clean sheets. But I’m hoping …. I’ve made a big play on our inability to not concede in this article and I’m desperately hoping to be proved wrong.

Sunderland are looking to complete the Premier League double over us for just the second time, previously doing so in 2010-11 when we were relegated. But our record at the London Stadium against promoted sides is very good, winning 16 of the last 21, drawing four. We haven’t actually lost at home to a promoted side for over four years, the last one was a 2-1 loss to Brentford in October 2021.

I’ve just got a feeling that maybe, just maybe, we are going to pick up three points again with a 1-0 or 2-0 victory. What are the chances of a Black Cat-astrophe for our visitors?

London’s Underachievers Collide. But with a gap that’s becoming too wide, and no place to hide, can West Ham turn the tide and be the better side when they visit Tottenham?

This London derby is usually a tense affair, with both clubs under immense pressure. Tottenham sit 14th in the Premier League, while West Ham are 18th and very deep in relegation trouble. Both managers, Frank for Spurs and Nuno for West Ham are under scrutiny, and defeat could have serious consequences for either side’s future, although Tottenham are not as deep in the mire as we are. Historically, Tottenham have the edge in this fixture, but both teams are struggling for form and confidence.

Tottenham are winless in 2026, with only one win in their last seven games. Their home form is poor, with just two wins in their last ten league matches at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. They were recently knocked out of the FA Cup by Aston Villa. West Ham are winless for even longer, in our last ten Premier League matches in fact, where six have been lost and four drawn. We are seven points adrift of safety, an almost but not yet impossible position. We cannot afford to fall any further behind and need to start closing the gap on teams above us quickly if we are to have any hope of avoiding the drop. Our only recent win came in extra time against QPR in the FA Cup. Defensive frailties are a major concern, with no clean sheets in 19 matches.

Tottenham will be without Richarlison (hamstring), Kudus (thigh), Kulusevski (knee), Maddison (ACL), Bentancur (hamstring), and Sarr (AFCON). Bergvall is also a doubt.  New signing Conor Gallagher is available and could debut, Romero returns from suspension. And both Solanke and Udogie are back in the squad.

West Ham will be without Mavropanos (neck), and Diouf (AFCON). Paqueta is doubtful (back, and supposedly unsettled anyway, did I read correctly that he has only provided one assist in the last two seasons?), and Fernandes (don’t think I’ve read why). Wan-Bissaka returns from AFCON and is likely to start at right-back. Kilman will probably partner Todibo in central defence?

Tottenham have struggled to score and win at home, but (I hate to say it) have a slight edge in quality and squad depth. Six of their seven league wins have come with a clean sheet. Their defensive record is shaky, but the return of Romero could help.

Our defensive issues are glaring, especially from set pieces (most goals conceded from corners in the league, a fact that we constantly are reminded of with every corner we concede when shown on TV). We have lost all six London derbies this season and have not won away in 11 games. However, clutching at straws, Nuno has a good personal record at Spurs’ ground from previous roles.

Most experts predict a narrow Tottenham win (2-1 is a common scoreline), but a draw is also seen as plausible given both teams’ struggles. This is really based on Tottenham’s home advantage, West Ham’s defensive woes, and the psychological pressure on both managers.

There is a real sense of crisis and frustration for the fans of both clubs, but more so for us as relegation is now an odds-on probability. I can’t remember where I read of the fixture being described as “The Underachievers Derby,” but it is very true with both sets of fans desperate for a positive result but realistic about the limitations of the teams this season. There’s also the continued speculation about managerial changes and the need for squad rebuilds at both clubs. How long have we needed a squad rebuild at West Ham?

In summary we head to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium desperate to halt a winless Premier League run and close the gap on safety. With defensive frailties exposed and relegation looming, the pressure is mounting on Nuno and the squad. Injuries and absences have left the team stretched, but the return of key players may offer a glimmer of hope, especially as Tottenham are missing some key players. Despite a poor record in London derbies and away matches, we know that tightening up at the back and showing resilience could make a difference in this high-stakes clash. All of us as fans are craving a turnaround, but realism tempers expectations as we fight for survival against fellow underachievers. But unless we start to close the gap soon relegation will become an inevitability well before the end of the season, and this is the type of game where we must pick up something if we are to stand any chance of playing in the Premier League next season. It’s looking pretty hopeless isn’t it, but I try to be as optimistic as I can.

From Promises to Peril: West Ham’s Premier League Future Hangs In The Balance

Can we turn our season around or is relegation now inevitable?

Saturday’s clash at the London Stadium is more than just another fixture—it’s a pivotal moment in West Ham’s season. The Hammers are mired in a relegation battle, sitting 18th in the table as we head into our 18th game of the season, and there’s no getting away from it, form and morale are at a worrying low. Forget all the talk about resurgence under Nuno, we are now six points adrift (if you take goal difference into account) and how many games have we won recently? Our last six league games have failed to produce a single win and just three points from three draws. That’s relegation form.

Fulham, meanwhile, arrive in better shape, unbeaten in their last ten London derbies and with a more balanced squad. They’ve won four of their last six league games, but in a tight division, although they are 13th in the table, they are just four points away from sixth place. Recent meetings have favoured Fulham, with West Ham winless in the last three encounters and suffering heavy defeats in previous derbies.

Predictions from analysts and betting sites suggest Fulham are favourites, with West Ham’s defensive frailties and lack of attacking threat making a home win unlikely. The Hammers have conceded in every home game this season and have one of the worst home records in the league.

Our struggles are rooted in a combination of poor recruitment, tactical confusion, and a lack of clear direction from the top. The club has cycled through managers—Julen Lopetegui, Graham Potter, and now Nuno Espirito Santo—without finding stability or a coherent playing style. The squad has been reshuffled, but new signings have failed to make a significant impact, and key departures (such as Declan Rice) have left a leadership void.

On the pitch, the problems are clear, defensive lapses, especially at set pieces and in aerial duels, players out of position leading to a lack of cohesion, poor discipline with a high number of fouls and cards and a worrying inability to convert chances into goals. The atmosphere at the London Stadium has also suffered, with fans feeling disconnected and apathetic, further compounding the team’s lack of confidence.

Who is to blame? While managers have taken much of the criticism, expert analysis and fan sentiment increasingly point to the board, particularly David Sullivan and Karen Brady, as the root cause. Poor decisions in the transfer market, questionable managerial appointments, and a lack of long-term strategy have left the club adrift. The recruitment failures and boardroom mismanagement are more to blame than the managers themselves. The club’s identity has been eroded since the move to the London Stadium and promises of a “world-class team” have not materialised.

There’s also blame to be shared among the players, who have not performed to their potential, and the managers, who have struggled to impose a clear tactical identity. However, the underlying structural issues mean that even talented individuals have been unable to thrive.

The importance of retaining Premier League status and the financial and sporting consequences cannot be underestimated. Relegation would be catastrophic for West Ham. The club stands to lose up to £120 million in revenue from TV rights, ticket sales, and sponsorships if we drop to the Championship. This would not only impact the ability to attract and retain top players but could also lead to further instability and decline.

The Premier League’s financial gap with the Championship is ever-widening, and survival is essential for maintaining the club’s profile, competitiveness, and future prospects. The new financial regulations (Squad Cost Ratio) will also make it harder for clubs to recover from relegation, increasing the stakes for West Ham.

Historically, teams in 18th place at Christmas have survived two-thirds of the time, but the odds are against those in the bottom three. Our situation is precarious, but not yet hopeless; recent seasons have seen dramatic escapes, but only with decisive action and improved performances.

Saturday’s game is beginning to look like a must-win for West Ham. Unless we turn recent results around in the next six games (which are as winnable as it gets in the Premier League) then we can start to prepare for trips to Blackburn, Swansea and Wrexham and, dare I say it, Millwall (that’s if they don’t change places with us!). The team needs to show resilience, tactical discipline, and attacking intent to have any hope of climbing out of the relegation zone. The board must act decisively in the January transfer window, addressing squad weaknesses and supporting the manager. Above all, the club needs unity—between fans, players, and leadership—to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past and secure our Premier League future.

If West Ham fail to turn things around, the consequences will be severe—not just for this season, but for the club’s long-term health and identity.

Merry Christmas everyone!

Miracles, Memories and Missed Bets: Reliving some of West Ham’s greatest moments against Manchester City

West Ham travel to Manchester this weekend to face City, and while I’d love to believe in an upset, history and current form make that hard to imagine. City are unbeaten in their last 19 Premier League games against us, winning 16, and we’ve lost 15 of our last 16 away games there. The only exception was in the final Boleyn season, when we managed a 2-1 win in September 2015, with Victor Moses and Diafra Sakho scoring before De Bruyne pulled one back just before half time. We held on for a famous victory that day.

City don’t show mercy to teams in the relegation zone; it’s been 46 games since they last lost to a team starting the day in the bottom three, and they’ve won the last 14 of those, scoring 43 and conceding just 7. If you’re hoping current form might give us a chance, City have won five of their last six league games to climb into second place, just two points behind Arsenal, while we’ve only managed one win in our last six, though we have picked up three draws.

Rather than dwell on the chances of an upset, I find myself reminiscing about the times we’ve managed to get the better of City. I sometimes like a small wager on the football, and over the years I’ve had my share of luck and disappointment. One memory stands out from 23rd March 1996, when City were struggling near the bottom of the table. I fancied a bet on the correct score and thought the odds on us winning 4-1 at 80-1 were too good to pass up. We had seats in the old West Stand lower, and I remember Ludo saving an early penalty from Kinkladze. Iain Dowie scored with a header for 1-0 at half time, and in the second half he added another from a corner. City pulled one back after a blunder from Ludo, but then Julian Dicks smashed in a screamer from 30 yards for 3-1. I started to believe my bet might come in, and when Dani tucked away a fourth, I was already counting my winnings. But in the dying seconds Niall Quinn scored for City, and the game ended 4-2. So near and yet so far – a terrific game, and a great result, but just a little personal disappointment at the end.

That wasn’t the only time fate played a hand. In the 2000-01 season, on Remembrance Day, I told colleagues about my unlucky 4-2 betting tale and fancied another go at 4-1. The new stand was under construction, and strong winds delayed kick-off. I forgot to place my bet, and as it turned out, despite being a goal down at half time, we won 4-1 again with a last minute Di Canio penalty. This time, missing the bet meant missing out on £165, as the odds had dropped to 33-1.

Among my earliest football memories is the 1959-60 season, when we beat City 4-1 during a run of eight wins in ten games. In 1962-63, we thrashed City 6-1 twice, home and away, and in 1966, shortly after England’s World Cup win, we beat them 4-1 at Maine Road with goals from Ron Boyce, two from Geoff Hurst, and Martin Peters. In 1968, we beat City 2-1 at Upton Park with two classic near-post headers, and perhaps the most famous game came in March 1970 on a mudbath of a pitch at Maine Road. Jimmy Greaves scored twice on his debut, but the highlight was Ron Boyce’s volley from 50 yards, and we won 5-1. In 1982-83, we beat City 4-1 again early in the season, and once more, City were relegated that year.

I haven’t had a correct score bet on a West Ham v Manchester City game since that day in 1996, almost 30 years ago. The odds for a 4-1 West Ham away win this weekend are 200/1, and just to win by any score is around 12/1. I think I’ll keep my fiver in my pocket this time. As much as I’d love to believe in a miracle, history suggests otherwise – but football is nothing if not unpredictable, and memories of those famous wins remind us that anything (however unlikely!) is possible.