Predictions – Page 2 – Under The Hammers

The Lawro Challenge – Week 36

Tension mounts as the two horse Lawro challenge race enters the final furlong.

Lawro Crystal Ball In Week 35, Geoff took the honours. Rich scored 3 points, Geoff 4 points, and Lawro 2 points. By some distance this was our poorest week for predicting the scores / results of Premier League games in the whole season, and demonstrated the unpredictability of some of the games in the top flight. Although Rich has forecast the most correct results, Lawro has been spot on with a greater number of correct scores. We now have just three weeks to go and Lawro has a 7 point lead. Can he be caught?

In this challenge we award one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction is spot on.

We now proceed to week 36.

	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Total after 34 weeks	263	210	271
Score in week 35	3	4	2
Total after 35 weeks	266	214	273

Predictions – Week 36
	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Friday
West Ham v Tottenham	1-1	1-5	0-2
Saturday
Man City v Palace	2-0	2-1	3-0
Bournemouth v Stoke	2-1	0-0	1-1
Burnley v West Brom	1-1	1-0	1-1
Hull v Sunderland	3-0	1-1	2-0
Leicester v Watford	3-0	3-0	2-0
Swansea v Everton	2-1	2-2	2-1
Sunday
Liverpool v Southampton	2-1	1-1	2-0
Arsenal v Man. United	0-0	2-0	1-1
Monday
Chelsea v Middlesbrough	4-0	2-0	3-0

The Lawro Challenge – Week 35

As the season and our prediction challenge gets close to a climax it is still all to play for.

Lawro Crystal Ball In Week 34, Rich scored 7 points, Geoff 6 points, and Lawro 3 points. This means that Lawro’s lead has been cut to 8 points. With just four weeks remaining and the finishing line coming into view can a jittery Lawro retain his position at the top? The contest is becoming almost as exciting as the scoring in Eurovision.

It is amusing that some folks take Lawro’s predictions to heart (see this post on the Claret & Hugh web blog). It is only a bit of fun and about as serious as your daily horoscope. In an inconsistent season results have been notoriously difficult to predict.

In this challenge we award one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction is spot on.

Now is the time to proceed to week 35.

	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Total after 33 weeks	256	204	268
Score in week 34	7	6	3
Total after 34 weeks	263	210	271

Predictions – Week 35
	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Saturday
Southampton v Hull	1-1	1-2	2-0
Stoke v West Ham	1-0	0-1	2-0
Sunderland v Bournemouth	2-1	0-2	1-1
West Brom v Leicester	2-2	1-1	2-1
Palace v Burnley	2-0	1-2	2-1
Sunday
Man U v Swansea	2-1	3-0	2-0
Everton v Chelsea	1-1	0-0	0-2
Middlesbrough v Man City	0-3	1-3	0-2
Tottenham v Arsenal	2-1	4-2	1-1
Monday
Watford v Liverpool	1-3	2-3	1-2

The Lawro Challenge – Week 34

All to play for in the Predictor Challenge as everyone sees at least at point for the Hammers this weekend.

Lawro Crystal Ball In Week 33, Rich scored 6 points, Geoff 8 points, and Lawro 7 points. Lawro’s lead has been extended to 12 points. Can he afford to relax? This week we have a reduced league programme but include the two FA Cup semi-finals where we forecast the scores after 90 minutes.

Also, this week I had a look at the league table that was formed by Lawro’s predictions this season. The team at the top of the league were Liverpool. What a surprise! It just goes to show that even when you are being paid to make predictions the bias shows. I am the same, although I am not being paid. I am just an optimist!

The same is true of the pundits on TV. Their lack of neutrality shows through. I even recently heard an ex-Liverpool player when giving his thoughts on a Liverpool game constantly saying “we”. Personally I would prefer to hear the views of neutrals, but I guess I am in the minority as broadcasters always seem to want to involve ex-players of the clubs involved in a particular game. And, anyway, there are probably more ex-Liverpool players doing the pundit job than those from other clubs.

In this challenge we award one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction is spot on.

We now proceed to week 34.

	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Total after 32 weeks	250	196	261
Score in week 33	6	8	7
Total after 33 weeks	256	204	268

Predictions – Week 34
	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Saturday
Bournemouth v Middlesbrough	2-1	1-1	2-0
Hull v Watford	2-0	2-0	2-1
Swansea v Stoke	1-0	2-1	1-1
West Ham v Everton	2-1	2-2	1-1
Chelsea v Tottenham S/F 90 minutes	0-1	1-4	1-1
Sunday
Burnley v Manchester United	1-2	0-1	1-1
Liverpool v Palace	3-1	4-2	2-0
Arsenal v Man City S/F 90 minutes	2-2	3-4	0-2

The Lawro Challenge – Week 33

The heat is on Lawro as his lead at the top of the Predictor Challenge is cut to 11 points.

Lawro Crystal Ball Week 32 of the Lawro Challenge saw the gap at the top of the leaderboard cut to 11 points as Rich scored a creditable 8 points compared with Lawro’s meagre 5 points. For a change Geoff split the two pacesetters weighing in with 6 points.

Still plenty to play for and with teams either battling for European slots, to avoid relegation or simply ticking off the days until they start their Mediterranean the results could even more unpredictable than before. Still plenty of time for Rich to put further pressure on Lawro while Geoff checks out the cost of 10 day all-inclusive breaks in Torremolinos

In this challenge we award one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction is spot on.

We now proceed to week 33.

	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Total after 31 weeks	242	190	256
Score in week 32	8	6	5
Total after 32 weeks	250	196	261

Predictions – Week 33
	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Saturday
Tottenham v Bournemouth	2-0	3-1	3-0
Palace v Leicester	1-0	1-1	2-1
Everton v Burnley	3-1	2-0	2-0
Stoke v Hull	1-1	1-0	2-0
Sunderland v West Ham	0-2	1-1	2-1
Watford v Swansea	1-2	2-0	2-1
Southampton v Man City	2-2	1-2	0-2
Sunday
West Brom v Liverpool	1-2	2-2	0-2
Man Utd v Chelsea	1-2	0-0	0-2
Monday
Middlesbrough v Arsenal	0-1	0-2	0-2

The Lawro Challenge – Week 32

Everyone’s going for a West Ham win in this week’s ongoing Lawro prediction challenge.

Lawro Crystal Ball In Week 31, Rich and Lawro both scored a respectable 9 points while Geoff once more trailed badly with 6 points. Lawro maintains his lead at the top but there is no room for complacency.

Just a short break between games this week as the season reaches the business end . Can Lawro be caught by the end of the campaign? The fat lady is going through her scales now in readiness for her performance.

In this challenge we award one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction is spot on.

We now proceed to week 32.

	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Total after 30 weeks	233	184	247
Score in week 31	9	6	9
Total after 31 weeks	242	190	256

Predictions – Week 32
	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Saturday
Tottenham v Watford	2-0	3-0	2-0
Man City v Hull	2-1	3-0	3-0
Middlesbrough v Burnley	1-1	1-0	0-2
Stoke v Liverpool	1-1	0-2	1-1
West Brom v Southampton	1-1	1-2	2-1
West Ham v Swansea	2-1	3-1	2-1
Bournemouth v Chelsea	1-3	1-2	0-2
Sunday
Sunderland v Man Utd	1-2	1-1	0-2
Everton v Leicester	1-1	2-2	0-2
Monday
Palace v Arsenal	1-2	1-4	1-1

The Lawro Challenge – Week 31

More daylight between Lawro and his pursuers as the prediction challenge enters the final lap.

Lawro Crystal Ball Week 30 was another triumph for Lawro as his 8 points eclipsed both Rich and Geoff who could only muster a meagre 3 points each.

We have midweek matches to predict this time, with teams having played just over 72 hours earlier. Will Lawro hold on to his lead until the end of the season or will a Steven Gerrard style slip allow Rich to race through to claim gold? Lawro extended his lead last weekend, and with less than a quarter of the season to go it is getting ominously close to the point where the fat lady is getting ready to sing.

In this challenge we award one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction is spot on.

We now proceed to week 31.

	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Total after 29 weeks	230	181	239
Score in week 30	3	3	8
Total after 30 weeks	233	184	247

Predictions – Week 31
	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Tuesday
Burnley v Stoke	0-0	1-2	1-1
Leicester v Sunderland	3-0	2-0	2-0
Watford v West Brom	0-1	1-1	2-0
Man U v Everton	1-1	0-1	2-0
Wednesday
Arsenal v West Ham	3-0	3-1	2-1
Hull v Middlesbrough	1-0	0-0	2-0
Southampton v Palace	1-0	2-1	1-1
Swansea v Tottenham	1-1	1-2	0-1
Chelsea v Man City	2-2	1-2	1-1
Liverpool v Bournemouth	2-0	3-1	2-0

The Lawro Challenge – Week 30

Can a late surge topple Lawro from the summit of the predictor challenge.

Lawro Crystal Ball In Week 29, Rich scored 12 points, Geoff 5 points, and Lawro 9 points.

Rich has reduced Lawro’s lead at the top of the leaderboard, but he needs more weeks like this to make it a close contest by the end of the season. Can Lawro be caught?

In this challenge we award one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction is spot on.

We now proceed to week 30.


	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Total after 28 weeks	218	176	230
Score in week 29	12	5	9
Total after 29 weeks	230	181	239

Predictions – Week 30
	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Saturday
Liverpool v Everton	2-1	2-2	2-0
Burnley v Tottenham	1-2	1-2	1-1
Chelsea v Palace	2-0	0-0	2-0
Hull v West Ham	1-2	2-0	1-0
Leicester v Stoke	1-1	1-1	2-0
Man U v West Brom	2-0	2-1	2-0
Watford v Sunderland	2-1	2-0	2-1
Southampton v Bournemouth	2-1	3-1	1-1
Sunday
Swansea v Middlesbrough	2-0	1-0	2-0
Arsenal v Man City	1-2	0-2	1-1

The Fourth International Break

With a quarter of the season remaining we project where West Ham will finish in the Premier
League based upon current form.

bpl

Here we are roughly three-quarters of the way through the season and we have the fourth international break. Only three league games had been completed when we had the first, seven games for the second, and just eleven when we had a free weekend for the third. I guess it is about time for another one! Due to the EFL Cup and FA Cup, the number of league games played by Premier League clubs varies between Manchester United and Southampton on 26, and a few teams like ourselves on 29. We therefore have just nine games left to finish in as high a position as possible. But how high will that be?

		Pts.	Left
1	Chelsea	69	10
2	Tottenham	56	11
3	Man City	56	11
4	Liverpool	55	10
5	Arsenal	50	11
6	Everton	50	9
7	Man United	49	12
8	West Brom	43	9
9	Stoke	36	9
10	Southampton	33	12
11	Bournemouth	33	9
12	West Ham	33	9
13	Burnley	32	9
14	Watford	31	10
15	Leicester	30	10
16	Palace	28	10
17	Swansea	27	9
18	Hull	24	9
19	Middlesbrough	22	11
20	Sunderland	20	10

Looking at the current league table above, which shows the points achieved so far and the number of games left in the season, then nobody could possibly bet against Chelsea coming out on top, although the fight to get into a top four position is not yet cut and dried. At the bottom, then the three most north-easterly clubs in the country look in trouble. We are in that cluster of clubs fighting for a ninth-place finish, as the top eight are now well clear barring a significant change of fortune.

Of course we don’t know what will happen between now and the end of the season, but one possible indicator is to look at the recent form of all the teams, and project this forward to the season’s end. As they write in all financial services advertisements, past performance is no guarantee of future results, but companies nevertheless still provide projections to enable potential investors to consider what might be achieved. So for this prediction exercise I looked at the number of points per game that all the teams have achieved in the most recent 10 games, and then multiplied this by the number of games that each has to play, to come up with a forecast of the final positions based on the form showed in their last ten games. And this was the result.

End of Season Predicted Points Tally Based on the form of the last 10 games

1	Chelsea	92
2	Tottenham	81
3	Man City	78
4	Man United	75
5	Everton	71
6	Liverpool	70
7	Arsenal	68
8	West Brom	58
9	Stoke	50
10	Southampton	47
11	Leicester	43
12	West Ham	43
13	Bournemouth	41
14	Swansea	41
15	Burnley	40
16	Watford	40
17	Palace	40
18	Hull	34
19	Middlesbrough	26
20	Sunderland	26

No great surprises here, although Manchester United would achieve a top four finish. We would finish in twelfth spot (as now) and the bottom three teams would be unchanged. Somebody I showed this to suggested that to look at the form of the last ten games would not be as accurate as considering the most recent results achieved, and it might be worth looking at a shorter time frame. So I carried out the same exercise looking at the most recent six games, and then projecting the end of season points totals from that, and this was the result:

End of Season Predicted Points Tally Based on the form of the last 6 games

1	Chelsea	92
2	Man City	82
3	Tottenham	76
4	Liverpool	72
5	Everton	70
6	Man United	69
7	Arsenal	61
8	West Brom	58
9	Southampton	51
10	Palace	48
11	Stoke	47
12	Leicester	45
13	Bournemouth	44
14	Watford	43
15	West Ham	41
16	Burnley	37
17	Swansea	36
18	Hull	35
19	Sunderland	28
20	Middlesbrough	26

This table produces greater variation than the previous one because we are looking at a smaller time frame. Some will argue that this could be more accurate as it is based upon more recent form. But as West Ham fans, we know that form can change. When we go along we never quite know what West Ham team will turn up, or what we can expect. Our form fluctuates more than many others. Nonetheless, this projection is more worrying in that we end up down in 15^th place. Palace, on the other hand, finish in the top half of the table.

Mischievously, partly because I have a good idea what the results will be, I did a final calculation of end of season positions, based upon form in the last three games only. This is, perhaps, too narrow a time frame to be realistic. Or is it? The result is shown below.

End of Season Predicted Points Tally Based on the form of the last 3 games

1	Chelsea	99
2	Man City	82
3	Tottenham	78
4	Man United	77
5	Liverpool	75
6	Everton	68
7	Arsenal	61
8	Leicester	60
9	Palace	58
10	Southampton	57
11	Bournemouth	54
12	West Brom	52
13	Stoke	48
14	Swansea	36
15	Burnley	35
16	Watford	34
17	West Ham	33
18	Hull	33
19	Middlesbrough	26
20	Sunderland	23

I knew roughly what this would show, as we are the only team in the Premier League without a single point in our last three games. But if this did prove to be an indicator of the end of season position, then it would be a matter of goal difference as to whether or not we play in the Premier League next season! One thing is for sure. Our current form needs to improve, and we probably do need a few more points to be safe.

The Lawro Challenge – Week 29

Our Lawro Challenge rumbles on as the BBC pundit extends his overall lead.

Lawro Crystal Ball In Week 28, Rich scored 6 points, Geoff 8 points, and Lawro 8 points.

Against all expectation Lawro has extended his lead at the top of the leaderboard yet again and now there is clear daylight between him and the nearest challenger. Can he be caught by the end of the season?

In this challenge we award one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction is spot on.

We now proceed to week 29.

	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Total after 27 weeks	212	168	222
Score in week 28	6	8	8
Total after 28 weeks	218	176	230

Predictions – Week 29
	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Saturday
WBA v Arsenal	1-2	0-2	1-1
Palace v Watford	1-0	1-1	2-0
Everton v Hull	2-1	0-0	2-0
Stoke v Chelsea	0-2	1-2	0-2
Sunderland v Burnley	1-1	1-0	1-2
West Ham v Leicester	2-1	2-2	0-2
Bournemouth v Swansea	2-2	2-1	2-1
Sunday
Middlesbrough v Man Utd	0-2	1-1	1-1
Tottenham v Southampton	2-1	1-2	2-0
Man City v Liverpool	2-2	2-1	1-1

The Lawro Challenge – Week 28

It remains tight at the top as the Lawro predictor challenge enters week 28.

Lawro Crystal Ball We have now predicted the results of 268 matches. In Week 27, Rich scored 4 points, Geoff 7 points, and Lawro 10 points. Lawro has extended his lead at the top of the leaderboard yet again, but, as we approach the business end of the season there is all to play for. Can Lawro increase his lead still further, making it difficult for him to be caught, or can Rich keep the contest alive?

This week we have a reduced number of league games because of the FA Cup matches being played. As Lawro has predicted FA Cup matches this weekend we will take him on in those games as well.

In this challenge we award one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction is spot on.

We now proceed to week 28.

	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Total after 26 weeks	208	161	212
Score in week 27	4	7	10
Total after 27 weeks	212	168	222

Predictions – Week 28
	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Saturday
Bournemouth v West Ham	1-2	3-3	2-1
Everton v WBA	2-0	2-1	1-1
Hull v Swansea	2-2	1-2	1-1
Sunday
Liverpool v Burnley	3-1	3-0	2-0
FA Cup
Saturday
Middlesbrough v Man City	0-3	0-4	0-2
Arsenal v Lincoln	4-0	7-1	3-0
Sunday
Tottenham v Millwall	4-0	3-0	2-0
Monday
Chelsea v Man United	3-1	1-0	2-0