Richard Bennett

Can West Ham register three away wins in a row without conceding a goal when they visit Selhurst Park?

Two of the most controversial aspects of modern-day football had a big influence on our defeat to Liverpool on Wednesday evening. I’ve written about them many times in the past but once again I’ll return to the difficult (to get right) topics of offside and handball.

Let’s start with offside. It is virtually impossible when it’s a close call for a linesman (or assistant referee as they call themselves now, although they don’t assist much really) to be able to be 100 percent certain that a player is offside at the exact moment a ball is played. Bearing in mind that a professional footballer can run at approaching 8-9 yards in a second, then just one-tenth of a second could mean a difference of a couple of feet in distance. So now we have a man in a VAR cabin somewhere who draws lines across the pitch to decide if a player is offside. And on this occasion Jarrod Bowen’s toes were definitely in an offside position. But how can we be sure that the lines were drawn at the exact moment that the ball was played? A fraction of a second less than one-tenth (0.1) and possibly up to one-hundredth (0.01) could make all the difference as to deciding if the lines are drawn at exactly the right moment.

But why do we have to go through all this? The offside rule was devised over a hundred years ago to prevent goal-hanging. The position of Bowen on the pitch could not remotely be described as goal-hanging. We were denied a wonderfully taken goal because Bowen’s toes were offside forty or so yards from goal, and that’s only if the lines were drawn at an exact moment that nobody could confirm was spot on. I’ve campaigned for years (but to no avail because I have no influence) that offside should be confined to the final 18 yards of the pitch, that is in the penalty area (with the line extended to the touch line) only. Play wouldn’t be as condensed as it is now; there would be more room on the pitch if defenders didn’t push up so far to try to catch people offside. That’s not the point of the game is it? Anyway the ‘goal’ was ruled out but nobody could possibly be sure that it was the correct decision. Why do football authorities make the laws / rules of the game more complex than they need to be?

If it was changed so that only the final 18 yards would count for offside there would be less controversy, but it could still exist. So let’s go further. Instead of looking for any part of the body that can legally play the ball being a fraction offside let’s go back to the theory of giving the advantage to the attacker. If any part of the attacker’s body is in line with any part of the defender’s body then it is not offside. We would still have some controversial decisions but the numbers of them would be reduced.

My second bugbear, and once again I have written about this before is handball. Thanks to TV we all saw a Liverpool defender handle the ball in his own penalty area, not once but possibly twice in the same movement. The current rule suggests that it is not handball if a player puts his hand down as he falls and then touches the ball with it. But was this the case here? I’m not so sure. Surely the referee couldn’t be sure at full speed. A definite case for VAR to refer him to take another look with the camera angles available. We are all biased as fans and want decisions to go the way of our team. On TV, Peter Crouch, whilst admitting he had a foot in the Liverpool camp, said that he would have been disappointed to not get the award of the penalty if this had been a West Ham player handling the ball. The referee may not have changed his mind if he had looked at the screen but surely he should have been advised to look?

Controversies such as these happen every week and we will never eliminate them entirely. But surely we must look at ways to try to minimise the numbers. The argument goes that they even themselves out over the course of a season. I wonder if any studies have been done to compare controversial decisions and which way they go according to the size of club involved? Perhaps it is just my imagination but it seems to me that bigger clubs seem to benefit more than smaller ones? Earlier this season Brighton lost a game 2-1 to Tottenham with at least four decisions that all went against Brighton, for which the refereeing authorities have apologised. But there is no question in my mind that Brighton should have at least three more points and Tottenham three fewer. That could make all the difference in respect of qualifying for Europe next season.

If Bowen’s goal was incorrectly ruled out and we had been awarded a penalty late in the game then we might have one or perhaps three more points than we have now. We are still not mathematically safe from relegation. We could in theory go down as a result of bad decisions in the Liverpool game (we won’t, trust me – but we could!).

Who will go down this season? It’s still a tough question to answer, but it’s getting clearer as the weeks go by. A few weeks ago, today’s opponents Palace were in the mix and they decided to dispense with Patrick Vieira and replace him with the oldest manager around who had decided to give up managing last season. But Roy Hodgson taking over once again at Selhurst Park has taken the Eagles out of the equation and they are now safe.

I quoted the Opta Supercomputer prior to last weekend’s matches; their figures for percentage chances of relegation at that time were:

Southampton 93.6%, Everton 74.0%, Leeds 46.7%, Forest 46.3%, Leicester 34.3%, West Ham 2.1%, Bournemouth 1.6%, Wolves 0.5%

One week and two games later the figures have changed to:

Southampton 97.6%, Forest 74.4%, Everton 57.8%, Leicester 46.4%, Leeds 23.5%, Bournemouth 0.5%, West Ham 0.4%

Wolves have now disappeared from the figures and both Bournemouth and West Ham are as good as safe. In my article prior to the Bournemouth game I wrote “It’s any three from five now – Southampton, Leicester, Forest, Everton and Leeds. It can still change of course, but I’ll stick with that.”

There seems little reason to change my view now. Bournemouth have won four of their last six matches and we have won three, with twelve and ten points respectively. The bottom five have all won just once (Leeds, Forest and Leicester all with 4 points from those six games), or not at all (Everton, 3 draws and Southampton, 2 draws). If they didn’t improve their points tally per game (they all have 5 to play) then none of the five would overhaul West Ham even if we didn’t collect another point. One or two might raise their game and do better but I doubt that three of them will. We have six games to play and I suspect we need perhaps another win to be sure, but I’m hoping for better than that.

I reckon our manager will once again start with the same eleven, although personally I’d like to see a change of goalkeeper. I was disappointed with the goals we conceded in the week with a lack of closing down for the first and, despite it being a good shot, disappointment that Fabianski was beaten from that distance. And it’s always disappointing to concede a headed goal direct from a corner. What happened to the marking? Paqueta’s goal must be a contender for our goal of the season for the team move and superb powerful shot.

Palace are one of the teams that we can overtake to improve our final league position this season; in fact we would go above them if we win this game. They have ten points like ourselves from their last six games – there are only six teams in the Premier League who can better that haul from their last half a dozen games.

We have a good recent record visiting Selhurst Park, only losing once in the past eight visits there and winning five times. We haven’t lost two games in a row in this calendar year (yet), and David Moyes has won as manager in five out of five visits to Palace. This is Palace’s sixth home London derby of the season and so far they have only picked up one point. If we can keep a clean sheet it would be the first time we have done so in three consecutive away Premier League matches for more than nine years apparently. Despite their resurgence under Hodgson, Palace have only won one of their past nine home league games. With all these statistics you’d think we’d be well placed for another three points today. But it doesn’t necessarily work out like that, does it?

I have good memories of my first visit to see West Ham at Palace. I visited Selhurst Park to see West Ham play there in October 1971 and we won the game 3-0 with goals from Clyde Best, Billy Bonds and Ade Coker. It came after an improved run of form that season where we didn’t manage to score a goal in our first four games and were bottom of the league, and then only lost once in the next 16 games (in all competitions) to climb into a mid-table position.

After winning 4-0 in our last away game at Bournemouth, and 1-0 at Fulham in the away game before that, can we win and keep a clean sheet for the third match in a row? Of course we can!

After a successful European win on Thursday, a cherry-picking trip to the South Coast for West Ham to face an improving Bournemouth team

An important game – the winner will virtually be safe from relegation, although whatever the result, they probably both will

The Opta Supercomputer makes and updates predictions on the likelihood of all manner of things, including which clubs will be relegated from the Premier League. It gives a percentage chance of facing the drop based on form, the strength of opponents in the games to play, and goodness knows what else. I wonder what the Supercomputer would have made of the chances of West Ham getting anything out of the Arsenal game last weekend after the first ten minutes? Surely it would have been close to zero percent. That’s what I thought, as did many of us I guess, so it was refreshing to witness a comeback that didn’t seem likely, and it could have even been a win at the end.

What brought about the change in the game? The Arsenal manager believes that they eased up once they were two ahead, and that may have been partly the case, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. There was a marked change in the way we played. We pressed them higher and played with an intensity rarely seen of late. Which begs the question – why haven’t we seen this for most of the season?

Who will go down? It’s still a tough question to answer, but perhaps a little easier than it was a couple of weeks ago. Back then there were just three points separating Palace in twelfth with Bournemouth in the third relegation spot. Palace decided to dispense with a young progressive manager and replace him with the oldest manager around who had decided to give up managing last season. But three wins in a row for Roy Hodgson since taking over once again at Selhurst Park has taken the Eagles out of the equation and they are now as good as safe.

It’s partly to do with the way that the fixtures have fallen with Palace now playing teams in the bottom half, as opposed to a run of games against teams closer to the top before Hodgson was appointed. Scoring goals has been the difference for Palace too. In the three games with the new manager in charge they have scored nine goals. In the 16 games prior to that they had also scored nine goals. What a difference! Not long ago there was a big gap between Palace and the team in eleventh place. Now they are just three points behind Chelsea who have collected just one point from their last three games.

A new manager at Everton had a similar (but only temporary) effect. When Sean Dyche took over they won two of their first three games reinforcing the change of manager ‘bounce effect’. But since then they have won just one of their last eight games, drawing three and losing four, and they are still in deep trouble with just seven games to play.

With Palace now out of it that leaves only eight clubs at most in the relegation mix. Let’s now take a look at some of the statistics involving the bottom eight.

This article was written before the result of the Arsenal v Southampton game last night was known.

The league table at present from the bottom up:

Southampton 23 points (7 to play), Leicester 25 (7), Forest 27 (7), Everton 27 (7), Leeds 29 (7), West Ham 31 (8), Bournemouth 33 (7), Wolves 34 (7).

The form table (once again from the bottom up) for the last six games played shows why the gaps are opening up near the bottom:

Leicester 1 point, Forest 1, Southampton 2, Everton 6, Leeds 7, West Ham 8, Wolves 10, Bournemouth 12.

The form table for the last three games is even more revealing:

Southampton 0, Leicester 0, Forest 0, Everton 1, Leeds 3, West Ham 4, Bournemouth 6, Wolves 7.

None of the bottom five teams are averaging a point a game for the season to date, and they are now in reality strong favourites to provide the three teams who will be playing in the Championship next season. If our game at Bournemouth on Sunday has a winner then that team will almost certainly be safe from the drop. If we can follow up the positive performance from last Sunday when we travel down to the South Coast then our relegation fears will be all but eliminated. We still have a game in hand and a goal difference that could be worth another point compared to the other teams in the bottom eight. That assumes that we don’t concede too many when we visit Manchester City of course.

I mentioned the Opta Supercomputer at the beginning of this article; their up-to-date figures for percentage chances of relegation are:

Southampton 93.6%, Forest 74.4%, Everton 57.8%, Leicester 46.4%, Leeds 23.5%, West Ham 2.1%, Bournemouth 1.6%, Wolves 0.5%

Bookmakers’ relegation odds vary a little, but taking Bet 365 as an example, the current odds before this weekend’s games are:

Southampton 1/14, Leicester 2/7, Forest 5/6, Everton 1/1, Leeds 9/4, Bournemouth 16/1, West Ham 20/1, Wolves 40/1.

On Thursday night we progressed into the semi-final of the Europa Conference League with a magnificent second half performance against Gent. AZ Alkmaar, fourth in the Dutch league (as Gent are in the Belgian league) stand in our way from reaching a European final in Prague, our first since 1976.

But before then it is back to the important domestic action. We don’t have a good record in away games at Bournemouth in the Premier League. We have won just once in five attempts when two goals from Valencia and one from Payet secured a 3-1 victory in January 2016, a reversal of the 4-3 defeat we suffered earlier the previous August when Callum Wilson (now of Newcastle of course) scored a hat trick in our last season at Upton Park.

The stakes are high for this game. Both sides know that a win will make them virtually safe. Will it be a cagey affair? Will both sides be happy with a point apiece? Both teams can count on recent momentum. Whatever happens I think we’ll both be in the Premier League next season. I’ll agree with the Opta Supercomputer and the bookmakers. It’s any three from five now – Southampton, Leicester, Forest, Everton and Leeds. It can still change of course, but I’ll stick with that.

If it is any consolation after Wednesday’s debacle West Ham still have a game in hand over all their relegation rivals as they travel to Craven Cottage

But games in hand mean nothing unless you pick up points from them

I find it difficult to add to Geoff’s excellent article this week. If you haven’t read it yet, then I recommend you do so now. Of the nine teams still involved in the fight against dropping into the Championship, only West Ham and Forest have failed to change their manager this season. Will one or both go down? Who knows? It is still too close to call. I keep reading that our manager has one more game to save his job, but if he wasn’t going to go after a 5-1 home drubbing then I guess he’s here for the season now come what may. And I find that truly astonishing.

There are three specific changes I would definitely like to see for our trip to Craven Cottage. Firstly, I believe that a change of goalkeeper is long overdue and Areola must surely replace Fabianski now. Our number 1 has been good, but time is catching up on him.

Kehrer must be replaced by Coufal. I thought Kehrer was badly at fault for the first two goals (although not the only one!). As a defender he lacks awareness of what is going on around him and I believe Coufal, while not perfect, is a better bet in that position.

As for Soucek, I just cannot understand how he can possibly be picked for game after game. To me his season has been full of giving the ball to the opposition or committing fouls and giving an innocent look at the referee as if he cannot understand why a decision has gone against him.

Of course defensively there are others who had poor games against Newcastle. Perhaps Aguerd could be replaced by Ogbonna, but I’d personally be happy to retain him, or perhaps as Geoff has suggested we might even go with a 3-5-2 formation, and keep Zouma, Ogbonna and Aguerd? Fornals and Downes come into the picture, or perhaps play Antonio and Ings together up top and move Bowen a little deeper in a 4-4-2? I don’t think Ings as a lone striker works – he’s not that type of player.

My team would be (4-3-3): Areola; Coufal, Zouma, Aguerd, Emerson; Rice, Paqueta, Downes; Bowen, Antonio, Benrahma.

But I very much doubt that will be the starting eleven.

So who will go down? It’s still a tough question to answer. There’s still only three points separating Palace in twelfth with Bournemouth in the third relegation spot. We are 15^th but only out of the bottom three on the basis of (a worsening) goal difference. All the teams involved at the bottom still have nine games to play, although we have ten.

Bookmakers’ relegation odds are not changing too much and we are still eighth favourites to go down. If you look at the form table for the very last game then we are bottom on goal difference! But if you look at the last five games then it is a different story. The three teams who are odds on to go down are Southampton, Bournemouth and Forest. Everton, Leicester, Leeds and Wolves come next (in that order) and then we are equal eighth favourites with Palace.

The league table at present from the bottom up:

Southampton 23 (9 to play), Leicester 25 (9), Bournemouth 27 (9), Forest 27 (9), Everton 27 (9), West Ham 27 (10), Wolves 28 (9), Leeds 29 (9), Palace 30 (9).

The form table (once again from the bottom up) for the last five games played shows ourselves and Leeds as the in-form teams:

Leicester 1, Forest 2, Palace 3, Wolves 4, Southampton 5, Bournemouth 6, Everton 6. West Ham 7, Leeds 7,

None of the bottom seven teams is averaging a point a game for the season to date, although five of the bottom nine teams are averaging a point a game for the last five games played (including two of the bottom three in the league table Southampton and Bournemouth).

I have updated the table that sets out our remaining 10 league games with the figures in brackets the points that we picked up in the reverse fixtures already played earlier in the season. If we were to replicate those then we would collect another 7 points to take us up to 34. Might that be enough? It might be or it might not. We now have only four home games left (where we have collected the bulk of our points this season) and Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United are three of them – not the simplest games on paper. If we are to survive then collecting more points on the road is likely to be vital.

8/4 Away v Fulham (3)

16/4 Home v Arsenal (0)

23/4 Away v Bournemouth (3)

26/4 Home v Liverpool (0)

29/4 Away v Palace (0)

3/5 Away v Man City (0)

7/5 Home v Man Utd (0)

13/5 Away v Brentford (0)

20/5 Home v Leeds (1)

28/5 Away v Leicester (0)

Fulham have had an excellent season and sit in the top half of the table, but their form in the last five games shows only four points attained (three less than ourselves) and they have lost their last three. We must go into this game thinking we can win. But will we be set up by the manager not to lose? The ‘six pointers’ still to come at Bournemouth, Palace and Leicester and at home to Leeds will be crucial to our hopes of survival, but we must look to pick up some points in games where we are possibly not expected to. I think we will win today and I’m confident we will stay up. What are the chances?

As West Ham entertain bottom club Southampton this weekend we try to work out who will go down this season

Get set for the closest and most exciting finish to the Premier League at the top and the bottom

Premier League football emerges from the final international break of the 2022-23 season and resumes on April Fools Day. With the season finale on Sunday 28^th May there are just 58 days or a little over 8 weeks for it all to be decided in potentially the most open finish for a while at the very top, in the fight for European places, and in the tussle to be playing top-flight football next season by avoiding the dreaded drop into the Championship. Arguably perhaps all 20 clubs are still involved in one of the three competitions (Top, Europe, Relegation) going into the final two months of a season that was interrupted by the death of the monarch and the winter World Cup in addition to the usual breaks for international football.

I cannot remember a season when there has been such a vast gap between the top and bottom halves of the league with two very distinct sets of teams battling in one or the other. If you want to be pedantic, not exactly halves, but the top 11 and the bottom 9. Depending upon the FA Cup winners and final league placings there are likely to be seven English teams in Europe next season and just 4 points separate Liverpool in sixth with Aston Villa in eleventh place. There is then a vast chasm (as wide as the gap between the top and bottom tiers of the London Stadium) of 11 points before we come to the group of nine clubs at the bottom. Unfortunately West Ham are in this latter group this time around (after two seasons finishing 6^th and 7^th) where just four points separate Palace in twelfth with this weekend’s visitors to East London, Southampton, who are propping up the table. I suspect that there has never been fewer points separating 12^th and 20^th place going into April.

As we enter the final run-in we sit in a relegation spot (18^th) although we have at least one and in some cases two games in hand over the other eight teams involved. If (and it is a big if) we could win the games in hand over our relegation rivals we would climb into twelfth spot, that’s how tight it is.

So who will go down? A tough question to answer in a season where a win or two on the bounce can transform the position in an instant by increasing optimism amongst fans and decreasing the perception of how much danger a team is in. We should really just focus on our own results, but it is difficult to ignore what is happening elsewhere when it is too close to call and the stakes are so high.

Opta Stats Perform produce probability of relegation figures and their current figures are:

Southampton 78%, Bournemouth 56%, Forest 50%, Everton 42%, Leeds 21%, Wolves 20%, West Ham 16%, Leicester 11%, Palace 6%.

Skybet relegation odds are broadly similar (apart from West Ham and Leicester changing places in the order) and their current figures are:

Southampton 2/5, Bournemouth 4/7, Forest 10/11, Everton 7/4, Leeds 3/1, Wolves 7/2, Leicester 4/1, West Ham 9/2, Palace 5/1.

The league table at present from the bottom up:

Southampton 23 (10 to play), Bournemouth 24 (11), West Ham 24 (12), Leicester 25 (11), Forest 26 (11), Everton 26 (10), Leeds 26 (11), Wolves 27 (10), Palace 27 (10).

The form table for the last six games played:

Forest 2, Palace 2, Wolves 4, Leicester 4, West Ham 6, Leeds 7, Bournemouth 7, Southampton 8, Everton 8.

None of the bottom nine teams is yet averaging a point a game for the season to date, although five of the bottom teams are averaging a point a game for the last six games played (including the bottom three in the league table Southampton, Bournemouth and West Ham). This could be why it is getting even closer at the bottom than it was a few weeks ago. Form of recent games, and potential momentum gained from those results depends partly on the opposition faced, but has been disrupted by the international break. Palace in particular (and especially their sacked manager) could perhaps feel that recent form gives an unrealistic impression. Despite their long winless run, Palace only faced teams from the top half of the table in that period and did manage some creditable (and possibly unexpected) draws. Incredibly they face every one of the other teams in the bottom nine, five at home and three away in addition to visits to Tottenham and Fulham to finish their season. Their goals have however dried up.

An interesting comparison of goals scored can be made between the bottom 9:

Palace 22, Wolves 22, Everton 22, Forest 22, Southampton 23, West Ham 24, Bournemouth 25, Leeds 35, Leicester 38.

Goals conceded comparisons:

West Ham 34, Palace 38, Everton 40, Wolves 41, Leeds 44, Southampton 46, Leicester 47, Forest 49, Bournemouth 54.

So what can we make of all these statistics as we approach the final games of the season? Goal difference could be worth another point and may make all the difference at the end. Leeds, Leicester and West Ham fare better than the others in this respect. As virtually all the teams in the league are still in contention or have something to play for then the strength of opposition in remaining games might not mean a lot. If all the teams in the bottom 9 averaged a point a game from here, then the final table would see Southampton and Bournemouth relegated with 33 and 35 points respectively, and the remaining seven teams would have 36 (West Ham, Everton and Leicester) or 37 (Palace, Wolves, Leeds, Forest). Unless there was a significant swing in goal differences Everton would be the third team relegated.

The difference between the points for a win (3) and a draw (1) take on added significance at this stage, and even the single points gained from draws could be crucial. Games played between teams in the bottom nine (so called six pointers) will be massively important too and there are lots of these. Palace have 8 of them, Southampton, Bournemouth and Leicester 6, West Ham and Leeds 5, Forest, Everton and Wolves 4. In this coming round of fixtures there are three (‘6 pointer’) games including our own against Southampton.

Conversely that means Palace have only 2 fixtures against teams in the top 11, Southampton have 4, Bournemouth and Leicester 5, Everton, Wolves and Leeds 6, Forest and West Ham 7.

The table below sets out our remaining 12 league games with the figures in brackets the points that we picked up in the reverse fixtures already played earlier in the season. If we were to replicate those then we would collect another 9 points to take us up to 33. Might that be enough? I suspect not, so we must do better. At least 12 would probably be needed, or possibly more. Six or seven points (or even optimistically nine?) in the first three would go a long way to alleviating relegation fears, whereas three points or less would leave us still in the fight for survival. If we could win the five games against teams in the bottom 9 then that undoubtedly would be enough. But that’s easier said than done. And how will our continued involvement in Europe influence things? It will mean nine games in 28 days in the month of April!

2/4 Home v Southampton (1)

5/4 Home v Newcastle (1)

8/4 Away v Fulham (3)

16/4 Home v Arsenal (0)

23/4 Away v Bournemouth (3)

26/4 Home v Liverpool (0)

29/4 Away v Palace (0)

3/5 Away v Man City (0)

7/5 Home v Man Utd (0)

13/5 Away v Brentford (0)

20/5 Home v Leeds (1)

28/5 Away v Leicester (0)

What does all this analysis mean? Will we survive? I think so, yes, but it will be close. An exciting climax for those not involved. Who will go down? Its too close to call but I’ll give it a shot. At this point I’ll say any three from Southampton, Bournemouth, Everton and Forest. But next week I might change my mind!

Nine Consecutive Wins for West Ham in Europe, a Number 9 Dream

But a win against Aston Villa would be even more satisfying

When was the last time a team won nine consecutive European games? I know it is only the Europa Conference but wins are wins. There are probably teams who have achieved this; I’m not going to trawl through all the records to see. However I bet we might be the only team to satisfy the following question. When was the last time a team won nine consecutive European games without playing particularly well after being thrashed 4-0 on the weekend before the ninth game, and in the ninth game they managed to concede 14 corners without having a single corner themselves?

It was a comfortable win despite what you might think when looking at the corner count with two well taken goals from our number 9, Antonio, who was unlucky not to complete the perfect hat- trick (header, right foot, left foot) when his shot near the start of the second half rebounded from the inside of one post to go for a goal kick beyond the other post. You can’t get much closer than that.

Two favourite European campaigns in the past both only consisted of exactly nine games and we reached the final of each one. Following our FA Cup win in 1964 we entered the European Cup Winners Cup the following season which meant two two-legged rounds, followed by a two-legged quarter final and semi-final before a final at Wembley. We won six of the nine games played, being held to a 1-1 draw in the home leg of the first round by La Gantoise (Belgium) and then losing 2-1 in the away leg at Spartak Prague (Czechoslovakia at the time). We won both legs of the quarter final against Lausanne Sports (Switzerland). We also drew 1-1 in the semi-final away at Real Zaragoza (Spain). But we won all the ties on aggregate and progressed to the final where we beat TSV Munich 2-0 at Wembley for our first (and so far only) European trophy (I don’t count the Inter-Toto in 1999/2000 – we even lost one of the six games needed to win that which gave us qualification to the UEFA Cup in the same season).

Following our 1975 FA Cup win we had a thrilling campaign in the Cup Winners Cup the following season where we lost 4-2 to Anderlecht in the final. We only won four of the nine matches in that tournament drawing 2-2 at Lahden Reipas (Finland) in the first round, 1-1 at Ararat Erevan (USSR) in the second round, losing 4-2 in the away first leg of the quarter final against Den Haag (Netherlands) after being 4-0 at one time in the match, and losing 2-1 in the away leg of the semi-final to Eintracht Frankfurt. Our home wins in those four ties were our only victories. The home games against Den Haag and Frankfurt were two of the best games I’ve ever seen us play.

So back to this season and we’ve already won nine games on the trot in Europe and haven’t reached the quarter-final yet although you’d expect this to be a formality next week wouldn’t you? But we are West Ham remember! I’ve been a supporter for 65 years now. I don’t take anything for granted where West Ham are concerned.

This weekend it’s back to the bread and butter of the Premier League and we will face a much stiffer test when Villa visit the London Stadium. We have the opportunity to complete the double over them after our 1-0 win at Villa Park in August. That was our only win on the road so far this season. Our away performances and especially the lack of goals scored has been dreadful this season culminating in possibly the worst of all on the South Coast last week. Geoff covered this in his article prior to the Larnaca game so I won’t go over it again.

After a poor start to the season losing four of their first five league games (including the one against us) Villa’s season has improved immeasurably under new management and they sit comfortably in mid-table (11^th) with 34 points with no need to look downwards as we have to.

Just like when we faced Brighton last week, Villa are equal with the Seagulls as having scored nine goals in the first 15 minutes of games so far this season, a statistic not bettered by anyone in the Premier League. So we need to be on our toes from the start (for a change!).

And continuing the number 9 theme that has been threaded through this article, Aston Villa have conceded eight goals in their visits to London this season and Danny Ings has scored eight Premier League goals this season. Can he score number 9 in this game to become the first player to score both for and against Villa in the same Premier League season? And perhaps our very own number 9 will continue scoring after his two in midweek.

We still haven’t scored a goal in the opening 15 minutes of a Premier League game yet, so how about us scoring one in the ninth minute? There’s my (optimistic?) prediction for the game – West Ham to win 2-0 with goals from Antonio and Ings. What are the chances?

In recent articles I have been analysing the position and current form of the bottom teams. I will continue to concentrate on the bottom nine as Palace in twelfth place are still only six points clear of Bournemouth in 20^th, and the Eagles are bottom of my mini form league too. The relegation dogfight this season is an interesting one – I just wish that we weren’t involved. The points of the bottom nine (with the number of games remaining in brackets) are:

Palace 27 (13 to play), Wolves 27 (12), Forest 26 (13), Leicester 24 (13), West Ham 23 (13), Leeds 22 (13), Everton 22 (12), Southampton 21 (13), Bournemouth 21 (13).

Wolves and Southampton are the only two of the nine to win last weekend so our poor defeat at Brighton didn’t really lose us too much in comparison to the others. The points gained in the last 5 games are a guide to current form and are set out below. We have been toppled from this summit of this ‘mini-league’ as a result of the last game, and Palace are now at the foot.

Wolves 7, Leicester 6, Southampton 6, Forest 5, West Ham 5, Everton 4, Bournemouth 4, Leeds 4, Palace 3.

With the bottom six clubs still achieving less than a point a game so far this season, and so many clubs potentially involved in the relegation struggle, then I still reckon that a final total of 37 or 38 should be enough to confirm Premier League football next season. That would mean us securing 14 or 15 from those 13 games if my estimate turns out to be correct. Based on current averages then 35 could be enough.

The table below sets out our remaining 13 games with the figures in brackets the points that we picked up in the reverse fixtures already played earlier in the season. If we were to replicate those then we would collect another 12 points to take us up to 35. Might that be enough? We would be cutting it fine, so we must therefore hope for more than that I would suggest.

12/3 Home v Villa (3)

19/3 Away v Man City (0)

2/4 Home v Southampton (1)

5/4 Home v Newcastle (1)

8/4 Away v Fulham (3)

16/4 Home v Arsenal (0)

22/4 Away v Bournemouth (3)

26/4 Home v Liverpool (0)

29/4 Away v Palace (0)

6/5 Home v Man Utd (0)

13/5 Away v Brentford (0)

20/5 Home v Leeds (1)

28/5 Away v Leicester (0)

This week I’ve had to write this article before the Saturday games are played. So I’m hoping that on Saturday Liverpool followed up last week’s demolition of Manchester United by winning at Bournemouth, that Brentford did the business at Goodison, that the Seagulls did what they did to us at Elland Road, that Chelsea won at Leicester, then Tottenham beat Forest (I hate to write that but needs must), and that Manchester City win at Palace.

And then today, in addition to us beating Villa I’m hoping that Manchester United beat Southampton, and Newcastle beat Wolves.

With so many references to the number nine, it’s interesting that none of the bottom nine have met or will meet this weekend. I’m hoping for a West Ham win and the other eight to have lost or to lose today. What odds on that 9-match accumulator? If you are interested it is around 140/1 with leading bookmakers.

Th(Ings) Can Only Get Better for West Ham

But first we need to improve our record against Brighton

What a difference a proven goalscorer makes! The acquisition of Danny Ings may not totally fit the plan of buying young, hungry players that was mooted a couple of seasons ago, but needs must. The two goals within a minute or so that opened the floodgates against Nottingham Forest weren’t the prettiest, although the first wasn’t one of the easiest to put into the net, but goals are goals and count however they are scored. The lovely strike from Declan Rice only equals Danny Ings’ second goal, however it went into the net.

The performance was much improved as the manager perhaps realised that he was instilling too much caution into the players in previous games. The two goals in quick succession relieved the pressure, and the freedom to express themselves was evident in the final twenty minutes.

A decent performance at Old Trafford on Wednesday followed with an excellently taken goal from Benrahma, and other chances (that a striker / finisher of the calibre of Ings might have put away?) could have put the tie beyond the home side. But unfortunately he was cup tied after turning out for Villa in their defeat to Stevenage in an earlier round. Hopefully he will be back for the trip to the South Coast this weekend.

Aguerd, who has looked so good in recent games, had a nightmare performance. The goal we conceded in the 75^th minute when he headed it into his own net, was the first that we have conceded from a corner this season. We were the only team in the Premier League not to have let in a goal in this way in the campaign to date, and it was unfortunate that it came in this way. We were still level as extra time loomed but two late goals from mistakes, Johnson not closing down and Aguerd’s lack of concentration, meant a 3-1 score to the Red Devils that flattered them.

I’m afraid I wasn’t impressed with the ITV coverage of the game. A neutral onlooker on TV would easily have known that Manchester United were playing, but might have struggled to know the name of the opponents. The pre-match and post-match coverage was typical fare in respect of what we can expect from the media I am afraid.

At least there was some consolation on the night with Tottenham going out of the Cup to a Championship side, and Arsenal thrashing Everton plus Liverpool beating Wolves in the league; good results for us in respect of the other clubs involved towards the bottom of the table.

It wasn’t his best night in the end but I feel much happier with Areola in goal. I wonder if he will now get a consistent run in the league games with the unfortunate injury to Fabianski. If he performs well, and I believe he will, I hope that he retains his place once Fabianski is fit again.

After Wednesday night we now have a game in hand over both Wolves and Everton. It would be good to use this advantage by winning it! An extended run of wins would help us to pull clear of the bottom three. Can we achieve this? The defeat of Forest, good as it was, must be followed up by more good performances and points.

In recent articles I have been analysing the position and current form of the bottom teams. I will continue to concentrate on the bottom nine as Palace in twelfth place are still only six points clear of the relegation zone. The points of the bottom nine (with the number of games remaining in brackets) are:

Palace 27 (14 to play), Forest 25 (14), Leicester 24 (14), Wolves 24 (13), West Ham 23 (14), Leeds 22 (14), Everton 21 (13), Bournemouth 21 (14), Southampton 18 (14).

Our goal difference is significantly superior to the other teams involved (apart from Leicester who are equal in this respect) so that might be worth another point in the final reckoning.

The points gained in the last 5 games are a guide to current form and we have now (at last) moved to the top of this mini-league which is a good sign:

West Ham 8, Leicester 7, Wolves 7, Everton 6, Forest 5, Bournemouth 5, Leeds 4, Palace 4, Southampton 3.

With the bottom six clubs still achieving less than a point a game so far this season, and an average of a point a game equalling fourteenth place in the table at present, and so many clubs potentially involved in the relegation struggle, then I still reckon that a final total of 37 or 38 should be enough to confirm Premier League football next season. That would mean 14 or 15 from those games if my estimate turns out to be correct. Based on current averages then 35 could be enough.

Looking at our remaining fourteen fixtures can you see where the requisite number of points will come from? Five of them are against teams that I have previously identified as being in the bottom nine, so winning (at least not losing) in those fixtures takes on added importance. Five games are against teams in the top six, against whom we have not collected many points in recent times, and the remaining four are against sides in ‘no-mans land’ between 7^th and 11^th in the table, although Fulham in 7^th are level on points with Liverpool (6^th), and this weekend’s opponents Brighton (8^th) and Brentford (9^th) both have games in hand that could push them closer to the top with positive results.

The figures in brackets below are the points that we picked up in the reverse fixtures already played earlier in the season. If we were to replicate those then we would collect another 12 points to take us up to 35. Might that be enough? We would be cutting it fine, so we must therefore hope for more than that I would suggest.

4/3 Away v Brighton (0)

12/3 Home v Villa (3)

19/3 Away v Man City (0)

2/4 Home v Southampton (1)

5/4 Home v Newcastle (1)

8/4 Away v Fulham (3)

16/4 Home v Arsenal (0)

22/4 Away v Bournemouth (3)

26/4 Home v Liverpool (0)

29/4 Away v Palace (0)

6/5 Home v Man Utd (0)

13/5 Away v Brentford (0)

20/5 Home v Leeds (1)

28/5 Away v Leicester (0)

Our performances against Brighton since they were promoted to the top flight do not bode well for this game. This is the sixth season, and in the previous eleven encounters we have not beaten them at all! We have drawn on six occasions and been beaten five times, and have never kept a clean sheet in any of those eleven games. With the increased amount of statistics available these days it has been identified that the opening 15 minutes could be vital in this match. Brighton have scored more goals in this period of the game than any other team in the Premier League so far this season. On the other hand we have yet to score a goal in the first quarter of an hour in any game. Why are we so slow off the mark?

We could really do with improving our record against the Seagulls and this weekend would be a good time to start. Recent history is against us. Can we do it? A point would be good but three would be even better. What are the chances?

West Ham – It’s a sad, sad, situation, and it’s getting more and more absurd

A little less conversation, a little more action please

Have you read Geoff’s article published yesterday? If you missed it look it up now. It tells you everything you need to know about West Ham’s current plight. The insipid display at Tottenham, the board dithering over a dithering manager who has presided over a team in freefall for more than a year now, unadventurous and inadequate tactics, lack of entertainment, a relegation dogfight that really shouldn’t be a situation for one of the world’s richest clubs, and a cautionary approach taken to another level last week.

Even our captain, Declan Rice took a veiled swipe at the tactics employed by our manager in the wake of last Sunday’s debacle. He was spot on when he was quoted as saying: “When you play with five at the back and the three like we set up today, maybe our strikers felt a bit isolated when we got the ball up to them – they didn’t really have enough around them, not enough support.”

He was only saying what a vast number of West Ham fans have been for some time now; the approach to games is wrong, and the fact that he sticks to a rigid formation when we don’t really have the right sort of players to make the most of lining up that way (for example wingbacks that are really just defenders and don’t really pose much of an attacking threat). It is no coincidence that we are seventh in the Premier League when it comes to defence and not conceding too many goals, but sixteenth when looking at goals scored (just 19 in our 23 games this season, a woeful figure).

If we are going to get out of the desperate situation we are in then we need to score more goals and win more matches. We need a more attacking formation, and not an isolated front man. Antonio was reasonably successful at this a year or so ago, but he has lost form, and he barely scores these days. The manager has even used others (Haller, Scamacca) in a similar role even though it is clear to most of us that they are not suited to playing in this way, their strengths lie elsewhere, but David Moyes (in his obstinacy?) fails to recognise this.

In previous articles I have been analysing the position and current form of the bottom teams. I will continue to concentrate on the bottom nine as Palace in twelfth place are only six points clear of the relegation zone. The points of the bottom nine (all with 15 games still to play) are:

Palace 26, Forest 25, Leicester 24, Wolves 23, Everton 21, Bournemouth 21, West Ham 20, Leeds 19, Southampton 18.

The points gained in the last 6 games shows today’s opponents Nottingham Forest ahead of the rest, but we have now slipped in this guide to current form:

Forest 11, Wolves 10, Leicester 7, Everton 6, West Ham 6, Southampton 6, Bournemouth 5, Palace 4, Leeds 2.

Ironically, the early season fixture won by Forest by a solitary goal could easily have gone the other way with a slightly different interpretation of rules (Benrahma’s disallowed goal) and a little more luck (twice hitting the crossbar) as well as a better taken penalty (Rice). If we had won that game then we would now be on 23 points and Forest on 22. But that’s football. Will that very first game come back to bite us at the end of the season?

And talking of interpretation of rules, that old chestnut (handball) has been a talking point in our last two games with Soucek (against Chelsea) and Kehrer (against Tottenham) both handling the ball in the process of falling and that was why penalties were not awarded against us. A new rule this season says that if a player is falling and the ball touches their hand / arm when it is between their body and the ground (but not extended to make the body bigger) then that is not handball.

Whether you like this new rule or others (designed to make the interpretation of handball simpler – ha ha), that is how the referees and VAR looked at these two examples although pundits on TV tended to disagree quite vehemently. As it happens it made no difference to the points in the Tottenham game, and we benefitted by one point (if the penalty had been successful) in the Chelsea match. But as far as Chelsea were concerned this was simply karma from the reverse fixture where we were robbed.

With the bottom five clubs achieving less than a point a game so far this season, averaging a point a game equalling fifteenth place in the table at present, and so many clubs potentially involved in the relegation struggle, then how many points from the final 15 games will be enough to ensure safety? I reckon that a final total of 37 or 38 might potentially be enough to confirm Premier League football next season. That would mean 17 or 18 from those games if my estimate turns out to be correct. Based on current averages then 35 could be enough. In the last five seasons the total needed to ensure safety was 36, 29, 35, 35, 34. In the ‘29’ season three teams were significantly detached which is not the case so far this time, so that one may not be representative of what is needed. Have a look at the remaining fixtures and see if you can tell where the requisite number of points will come from.

25/2 Home v Forest

4/3 Away v Brighton

12/3 Home v Villa

19/3 Away v Man City

2/4 Home v Southampton

5/4 Home v Newcastle

8/4 Away v Fulham

16/4 Home v Arsenal

22/4 Away v Bournemouth

26/4 Home v Liverpool

29/4 Away v Palace

6/5 Home v Man Utd

13/5 Away v Brentford

20/5 Home v Leeds 28/5 Away v Leicester

Five wins and two or three draws from those fifteen games might just be enough. If you think that should be easy bear in mind that we have only achieved five wins and five draws so far from 23 games, that is eight more played than those that are remaining. Of the eight home games, four are against teams in the bottom half (the next three and the last one). In the seven remaining fixtures away from home, three are against teams in the bottom half (three of the last four). Therefore, a fairly equal spread in terms of potential difficulty based on league positions.

I began this article referring to Geoff’s excellent summary of our current plight and the action perhaps needed (change the manager?) to stay up. He ended the piece with the sentence ‘It’s a sad, sad, situation.’ You know the Elton John song – Sorry Seems to Be The Hardest Word? Some of the lyrics from the song sum it up nicely:

It’s sad, so sad

It’s a sad, sad situation

And it’s getting more

And more absurd

Note to the board from an entirely different (Elvis) song – A little less conversation a little more action please!

Statistics would suggest that West Ham’s visit to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium won’t end in a draw.

London derbies; just like London buses you wait a while for one and then two come along together. We are the last game on Sunday afternoon on Sky at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium after being the early kick off last Saturday at home to Chelsea.

After an awful first 25 minutes when we conceded a goal, and Chelsea could have been out of sight, we got better as the game went on and perhaps deserved a draw following Emerson’s equaliser against his former club.

In our five 2023 Premier League games we have beaten Everton 2-0, lost by the solitary goal against Wolves, and drawn against Leeds, Newcastle and Chelsea in addition to two FA Cup wins. That’s an improvement in results and to some extent performance too, but we still sit just two points above the relegation zone, and remain in trouble. We really need some wins and the three points that come with them to start to climb the table.

In previous articles I have been analysing the position and current form of the bottom teams and update the current situation below. The points of the bottom nine (all with 16 games still to play) are:

Palace 25, Leicester 24, Forest 24, Wolves 23, West Ham 20, Leeds 19, Everton 18, Bournemouth 18, Southampton 15.

The current form looking at points gained in the last 5 games:

Forest 10, Wolves 10, Leicester 7, West Ham 6, Everton 3, Palace 3, Southampton 3, Leeds 2, Bournemouth 2.

It won’t be easy to pick up three points in this game. In our last ten games against Tottenham our opponents have won half of them whereas we have claimed victory just twice.

Paqueta is definitely out and Scamacca is also unlikely to be involved. Aguerd faces a late test; I really hope he is fit as he has looked good and is very important to our defence. Coufal, Emerson and Soucek had reasonable games against Chelsea and will all probably play as Moyes continues with three at the back (but who will the three be?). Antonio has a good goal scoring record in this fixture.

Unusually for me I’ll predict the lineup for the game: Fabianski; Kehrer, Ogbonna, Aguerd (or Cresswell if he doesn’t make it); Coufal, Rice, Soucek, Emerson; Bowen, Antonio, Benrahma.

Statistically it would seem unlikely that the fixture will end in a draw as the reverse one did in the game in August when Soucek’s second half equaliser cancelled out Kehrer’s own goal in the opening period. It is 38 years since the two teams drew both league games in the same season, and additionally Tottenham have now played 21 consecutive home games without a draw. My prediction will defy the statistics as I’ll go for a 2-2 draw. What are the chances?

In a fixture famous for late goals can West Ham defeat big spending underachieving West London rivals Chelsea?

In last week’s article I predicted (or more correctly hoped for) a 0-0 draw. Within about 45 seconds I thought that was a forlorn hope, but fortunately VAR intervened as the ball had gone fractionally out of play when Newcastle thought they had scored within the first minute. But not to be deterred they came straight back at us and a minute or two later we were 1-0 down when Wilson ran on to a through ball that split our centre backs. I have to admit that at that point I feared the worst.

Not many teams score against the meanest defence in the Premier League (they have conceded far fewer than anyone else), particularly at St James’s Park. But the early setback seemed to spur us on and for much of the first half we were the better team and it was no surprise when Paqueta equalised from a corner well taken by our new corner taker Declan Rice. Is there anything that he doesn’t do well? The statistics at the end of the first half showed that we had eight shots compared to the home side’s two. Very promising.

The second half was more even but we held on well and by the end of the game we had collected a well deserved point in a 1-1 draw against the draw specialists. That was the Magpies tenth draw in 21 games. The shots count at the end was 10-8 in our favour and we were the better side in the expected goals (xg) statistic too. An excellent point in our fight for survival which we are very definitely still very much involved in. The point gained was very welcome but the most important thing for me was the overall performance which pleased me immensely.

In previous articles I have been analysing the position and current form of the bottom teams. I was concentrating on the seven sides closest to the foot but now I will extend it to nine as Palace in twelfth place are only six points clear of the relegation zone. The points of the bottom nine (all with 17 games still to play) are:

Palace 24, Forest 24, Leicester 21, Wolves 20, Leeds 19, West Ham 19, Everton 18, Bournemouth 17, Southampton 15.

The points gained in the last 5 games shows Forest well ahead of the rest, but we have now risen to third in this guide to current form:

Forest 11, Wolves 7, West Ham 5, Leicester 4, Everton 4, Leeds 3, Southampton 3, Palace 2, Bournemouth 1.

A couple of tough games coming up starting with the visit of Chelsea this weekend in the early kick-off. By the standards of recent times our visitors have had a poor season so far and are one of seven teams to relieve their manager of his position in the last six months. Graham Potter, after winning many plaudits for what he had done at Brighton, took over from Thomas Tuchel, but their fortunes have not improved whilst the Seagulls have continued with their impressive start and sit in sixth place, four clear of ninth placed Chelsea.

I read that everything seems to happen in the last five minutes of our Premier League games against Chelsea, more than in any other fixture. Each of the last three games has been settled by a goal in this time, and it has happened seven times overall with winning goals coming this late. Yarmolenko and Masuaku strikes stand out in my memory, but the finish of the reverse fixture at Stamford Bridge earlier this season is one that was not good from our viewpoint. Do you remember that game played early in September?

Antonio scored the opening goal of the game about half an hour from the end before Chilwell equalised fifteen minutes later from a virtually impossible angle that Fabianski would have saved easily had he not advanced trying to narrow it even further. At 1-1 with the game almost over Cornet (remember him?) should have equalised but managed to hit the post before the ball went down the other end for Havertz to score what turned out to be the winner. We thought we had equalised in the last minute (Cornet again) but the goal was disallowed by referee Madley after a VAR check decided that keeper Mendy had been fouled by Bowen. Ridiculous in my view and many others thought the same too. Our manager described it as scandalous. That was one of the unlucky decisions that went against us in the early season games.

There’s a lot that annoys me about Chelsea. It goes back around 40 years when I was threatened with a knife in the Stamford Bridge stand at a Chelsea v Newcastle Division 2 game, when I was there with a Geordie friend. Back in 1983/4 neither of those two teams who now have some of the richest owners in the Premier League were in the top division. I dislike the fact that the Blues, bankrolled by billionaire owner Todd Boehly, have spent money outrageously in January, dwarfing that of every one of the teams in the German, Spanish and Italian leagues combined. More than the rest of the Premier League combined too. It just seems to be a continuation of the Abramovich era.

I find the spending outrageous, obscene even. It is not good for football. And at a time of a cost of living crisis too it seems even worse. There always used to be an argument that the vast amounts of money in the Premier League found its way down the leagues and into grass roots football. But does it? Somehow wealthy clubs such as Chelsea spending record-breaking eye-watering sums don’t get touched by Financial Fair Play. Somehow they manage to keep within the regulations. For me there must be something wrong with how the fair play rules are constructed. Nothing fair about it at all and the ruination of fair competition.

Despite their indifferent recent form (they have only picked up five points from their last five games – the same as ourselves), the visitors are favourites with the bookmakers to win the game at 5/4. A West Ham win and the draw are both priced at 23/10. I hope that we beat them. I think that we can. What are the chances of the game being settled once again with a West Ham winner in the last five minutes? I do hope so.

Can West Ham snatch an unlikely point at St James’ Park against the Premier League’s draw specialists?

I am often intrigued by a debate amongst football fans about the size of their club. The ‘my club is bigger than yours discussion.’ Newspaper journalists and the media in general will often refer to x being a big club, or will a certain player want to join a ‘bigger’ club. But what is a big club? A club that is considered big today may not have been at some time in the past. Is it the fan base, average attendances, revenue, trophies won in history, or honours gained in recent times, or one or more of many other criteria that you could toss into the mix? A club that is considered big today may not have been at some time in the past. It’s all quite subjective really.

I watched a TV quiz show recently where contestants had to decide if clubs had won more FA Cups than Ipswich Town (one win in 1979). When the name Old Etonians came up the contestant scoffed. But Old Etonians reached the final of the FA Cup six times in the nineteenth century winning it twice and supplied a number of players for the England national team, including three in one match against Wales in 1879. Old Etonians were once a big club, but not now of course.

Few of us would argue against Newcastle United and West Ham United being big clubs at the present time. (Our fans sing that we are not just big but massive of course!). But if the criteria was based on trophies won in recent times then perhaps we would not be considered quite so big. West Ham last won a major trophy in 1980 when as a second tier side we beat Arsenal in the FA Cup final on that sunny May day when Sir Trev stooped to head the only goal of the game.

Newcastle have won four league titles, six FA Cups, and like ourselves have won an Inter Two Bob Cup and a European trophy. In fact they have won the ninth highest total of trophies by English clubs (we are about 18^th on that list). But Newcastle’s last major domestic trophy was in 1955, though their last major trophy was when they won the Inter-Cities Fairs Cup in 1969.

Both of us took steps towards rectifying the lack of recent honours this week. We beat Derby County fairly comfortably to move into the last 16 of the FA Cup. In theory we only need to win three games from here to reach the final at Wembley, and four to actually lift the trophy. But the draw has not been kind to us and our task has been made harder with a trip to Old Trafford in Round Five.

Newcastle are much closer to landing a trophy having beaten Southampton in a two-legged semi final to reach the final of the EFL Cup where Manchester United stand between them and achieving their aim. A rejuvenated Manchester United could put paid to both our hopes.

After battling relegation for much of last season the Magpies recovered well in the latter stages, and in this campaign they have turned it around to such an extent that they currently sit third in the Premier League with just under half of the season to play, and are among the favourites to be playing Champions League football next season. The Saudi-led takeover of the club is a massive contributing factor of course, but Eddie Howe deserves a lot of praise for building a team capable of challenging the top teams in England.

On the other hand as a complete reversal of last season’s fortunes we sit in sixteenth place just one point above the bottom three and in need of some good results in the second half of the season to ensure that we are still in the Premier League next season. Following the death of the Queen earlier in the season the reverse fixture was postponed so we have not yet faced the Magpies yet.

As so often seems to be the case we are once again hindered by injuries. In the transfer window that has just closed I think we signed two players, Danny Ings, a recognised Premier League goalscorer, but who is apparently injured already, and a young Brazilian who has gone into the Development Squad. Around nine players left the club in the window including some promising Academy graduates who barely got a chance to show what they could do in our colours. The manager must believe we have a big enough and good enough squad to move up the table. Many would disagree.

On form we don’t really have much of a chance in this game, do we? Third at home to sixteenth. I read that the Geordies have been trailing in games for just 80 minutes in total in their 20 league games to date, fewer than any other team. They haven’t conceded a single goal in the first half in any of their last sixteen Premier League games! They have only conceded 11 goals in total in 20 games, five fewer than league leaders Arsenal, and by far the best defensive record in the top flight. They have only lost once, a 2-1 defeat to Liverpool with the winner coming in the 98^th minute. Nick Pope, (allegedly a target of West Ham last summer?), has kept six consecutive Premier League clean sheets. When did we last win an away game?

Just 3 points separate Leicester in 14^th (on 18) and Southampton at the bottom (on 15). The points table for the last five games for the bottom 7 clubs is as follows (none apart from Wolves perhaps pulling up any trees or averaging a point a game):

Wolves 7, West Ham 4, Leeds 3, Southampton 3, Leicester 1, Bournemouth 1, Everton 1.

All seven teams are averaging less than a point a game for the season as a whole so far which is a figure that is generally enough to avoid relegation, and at this moment they would appear to be the teams who will produce the three who go down, although Forest and Palace are not too far above, and invariably a team that is not involved in the scrap at the bottom has a poor run at the season’s end.

The odds on a Newcastle win (3/5) are not as short as you might expect given the relative form of both teams and their league positions. The draw is only 11/4 with a West Ham win at 5/1. I reckon the best chance of us getting anything from the game is to play for a 0-0 draw. That’s probably what David Moyes has in mind too, as he seems to for so many of our games, particularly on our travels. The odds on the game being goalless are around 8/1, unlikely despite the fact that Newcastle have played six such games out of the 20 so far this season, Palace (twice), Brighton, Manchester United and Leeds featuring in 0-0 draws. Wolves, Bournemouth and Manchester City all held the Magpies to a scoring draw, and their solitary defeat at Liverpool should really have been a point apiece too, but the referee in that game seemed to continue playing until the Reds scored their winner deep into added time.

It’s time for Paqueta to demonstrate why he is preferred to the suspended Guimaraes in the Brazil national team; in fact time for so many to perform. Quite what Areola and Downes have to do to get an extended run in the league team is beyond me, but the manager will no doubt select some players in the team that many of us would not. I fear the worst but hope for a 0-0 draw, and being optimistically greedy how about snatching a late winner for three points in a 1-0 win? What are the chances?