Author: Geoff Hopkins

True to form, West Ham fluffed their lines at Villa Park on Monday night and failed to put in the performance necessary to claim a spot in the top three.  Or perhaps they were given the wrong script.  One that was a variation on respect the point rather than the promised we’re gonna score one more than you.  Was it one point gained or two points lost?

Following the exuberance of the Norwich victory, it was disappointing that the Hammers showed such little variation in attack.  It was possession for its own sake in safe areas lacking quick breaks, penetration and precious little width.  If Sebastien Haller is to become the striker we have waited so long for, then he needs far better service from those behind him.

So, instead of putting clear daylight between ourselves in 3^rd place and the rest of the table , we are at the bringing up the rear of a gaggle of six teams on eight points – including today’s visitors, Manchester United.

The Red Devils are now a pale shadow of the club who have dominated English football for much of the Premier League era.  The post-Ferguson era is playing out much like the post-Busby one did, although they are unlikely to get relegated this time around.  Now on their fourth full-time manager in 6 years, they have the look a fading star who once graced the big stage but now has to be content with the occasional appearance in panto.

It’s not that Manchester United have bad players, they just don’t have enough good ones – certainly not good enough to present the credible title challenge that their followers demand.  They have fallen way, way behind their two north-western neighbours and have no coherent plan to bridge the gap.  They are obsessed with paying over the odds for big names rather than team building.  Ole Gunnar Solskjær looks out of his depth in the Old Trafford hot-seat, like a modern day equivalent of Frank O’Farrell (incidentally the Hammer’s oldest living ex-player who will celebrate his 92nd birthday in a few weeks time).

Despite all the negativity, an encounter with the Red Devils remains one of the highlights of the footballing calendar.  Success is relative and they have a reputation and world-wide following that others can only dream of.  Champion’s League qualification (unless through the Europa League backdoor) looks beyond them once again.  Interesting to compare their odds of a top six finish (2/5) with our own at 5/1, as I don’t see so much between the teams.

Rumours of Champion’s League reform resurfaced again in the week with proposals to change the group stage from four groups of eight to eight groups of four – guaranteeing additional money-spinning games that would ensure the big teams stay well ahead in the revenue generation stakes.  Among further worrying proposals are suggestions that that domestic leagues would need to be reduced in numbers to compensate and that CL games would be moved to the weekend to attract a larger global TV audience – something I predicted some years ago.  Personally, I would prefer if the rich clubs simply packed their bags and left domestic competition altogether.  Perhaps then this could be one of our last meetings with the Manchester club.

Back to more pressing matters and Manuel Pellegrini will have at least one selection decision to make following Arthur Masuaku’s red card on Monday.  Pellegrini is not a risk taker and will likely opt for Aaron Cresswell rather than call in Ben Johnson.  Cresswell has really lost his way in recent times and badly needs to rediscover his mojo.

Elsewhere, there is a general consensus among fans (or at least those active on social media) that Andriy Yarmolenko needs to be benched this weekend after disappointing on Monday – from hero against Norwich to villain against …… Villa.  But in Michail Antonio’s absence what are the options?  We have yet to see what Pablo Fornals is all about and there are questions whether the Three Amigos (he, Manuel Lanzini and Felipe Anderson) are too much of a muchness to mix it up in midfield and effectively unlock defences.  It looks so promising on paper but so far has been unable to deliver.

Jack Wilshere is a player who can offer something different. He is an intelligent footballer adept at progressive passing and switching the focus of attack, but the worry is that more than one of him, Mark Noble or Robert Snodgrass on the pitch at the same time leaves the team exposed for pace.  The situation may be complicated if Lanzini fails a late fitness test all things being equal, my guess is that Pellegrini will go for Fornals to replace Yarmolenko in the starting eleven.

I cannot see there being any further defensive changes (aside from Masuaku) and with two clean sheets in a row we must now be entering uncharted territory.  With the visitors seemingly being awarded a penalty every outing, I will be holding my breath every time Angelo Ogbonna makes a challenge in the box.

Manchester United will be without Pogba and Martial while James faces a fitness test.

This weeks on-field whistle blower is Anthony Taylor from Manchester (hmmm?) while the eye in the sky will be Graham Scott from Oxfordshire.  Even with a low bar set for refereeing competency, Taylor is often picked out for special mention.  Expect at least some degree of controversy during the course of the game.

Our pundit friends are once again united in their predictions and both Lawro and Nicholas have surprisingly gone for a 2-1 home win.  Part of their thinking may be that  the Reds will be tired having also played on Thursday night.  It will interesting to see if that is a factor and whether West Ham will exploit it.  I fully expect the visitors to get a penalty at some stage making a third straight clean sheet unlikely.  I do believe that the Hammers can win the game though, but much will come down to the right attitude.  I am fancying a welcome 3-1 victory.

Confidence high, on a good run of form, coming up against a side still trying to find their feet in the Premier League, who are short of goals and strikers, who didn’t have the most impressive home record even in their Championship season; and with the prospect that a win will rocket them into 3^rd place (or mathematically 2^nd even) in the Premier League standings.  What could possibly go wrong?  If history has taught us anything with West Ham it that the proximity of disappointment is inversely proportional to degree of optimism.  Or will the new look Hammers finally manage to throw off that age-old gypsy curse that has held them back over the years?  It’s not the despair, it’s the hope I can’t stand!

The international break creates a vacuum in social media frenzy of club football coverage, in which two things happen.  One is that supporters are left to dwell on events  that immediately preceded the break – without another quick fix, pessimism deepens while optimism soars.  West Ham ended with a swashbuckling victory against Champion-slayers Norwich City that rounded off a strong run of positive results following the disastrous opening day defeat.  The law of unrealistic expectations has been allowed to flourish in this void and elevated the Hammers from erratic write-offs to realistic top six finishers.  While I hope this can be so, I sense that it’s a little too early to get completely carried away.  You can only beat what is in front of you but the fixture computer has kindly presented an unusually benign start to the season – with the one challenging fixture ending in the traditional white-flag moment against Manchester City.  Still, if the game by game improvement we have seen since can be sustained it will result in an interesting and entertaining season.

The second feature of the international breaks has been the viral outbreak of punditry where any ex-player not talented enough to go into coaching is desperate to share a controversial opinion or two to anyone willing to stand the next round.  I have never believed that, as a general population, ex-players have greater insight into the game than many supporters – but their spread has become pervasive and as difficult to get rid of as Japanese knotweed.  It makes me nostalgic for the days when ex-players simply became pub landlords or went out to sell insurance.

Over the past two weeks, a procession of pundits have been volunteering their views on the prowess of Declan Rice and declaring when he should move to Manchester United and for what price.  How dare they?  He is not the first of our current players who have been described recently as ‘too good for West Ham’, with the list variably extending to Manuel Lanzini, Felipe Anderson, Issa Diop and Sebastien Haller.  Of course, if they had said ‘too good for an underachieving mid-table outfit’ then they may have a valid point.  It is a conundrum for any aspiring top six pretender.  If you don’t show progress and ambition then you will not hold on to your prized assets.

Prior to the current round of games, I came across a presentation from a chap at Opta which showed West Ham in second place (to Manchester City) as far as ‘Expected Goals’ were concerned.  Now I’m not really sure what an ‘Expected Goal’ is but it is good to see us up at the top.  As we hadn’t scored as many actual goals as the ‘Expected Goals’ tally I assume we are better at creating chances than at converting them.  On the flip side, the Hammers ranked poorly on ‘Expected Goals Against’ where we had also conceded fewer actual goals than the stats suggested.  The upshot was that West Ham were higher up the table than they should have been statistically.  Make of that what you will!

Today’s team pretty much selects itself and, barring any late breaking injuries, it should be the same that started last time out.  The front four can cause plenty of problems for the Villa defence but they must not forget their defensive responsibilities.  Watching Liverpool at the weekend it was noticeable how prepared Salah and Mane were to regain possession once the ball had been lost – even if it meant sprinting back to their own penalty area.  Rice and Mark Noble will need to keep their wits about them to cope with the midfield threat of Grealish and McGinn and that contest could well be pivotal to the outcome of the game. Although Angelo Ogbonna has done enough to keep his place ahead of Fabian Balbuena I can’t get rid of that nagging sensation that he is overdue one of his calamity moments.

It is good to see Aston Villa back in the top flight.  England’s second city needs to be represented in the Premier League but it could well be a tricky season for the Villains.  They have invested heavily in the squad and will be expecting to see a return in the points column sooner rather than later if Dean Smith is not to become ‘at risk’ in the manager’s sack race.  As so often with newly promoted clubs it is goals that are difficult to come by and in Villa’s case the situation has been hampered by injuries and suspension.

Today’s referee is the preening Mike Dean from The Wirral, with VAR duties down to Martin Atkinson.  VAR continues to divide opinion as to how it impacts the flow of the game and remains very reluctant to reverse the on-field decisions of referees – the Haller non-penalty against Norwich being a perfect example.

Returning to the world of punditry both Lawro (BBC) and Charlie Nicholas (Sky) have the game down as a 2-1 home win.  There was a strange comment from Nicholas suggesting that West Ham were ‘predictable’ – something which I would have thought was the polar opposite of reality.  I would still like to see more width in our attacking play but there is plenty of flair.  And I would still like to see Nathan Holland given some minutes on the pitch.  It seems odd that for all his promise he still only has one sub appearance, in a September 2017 League Cup tie, to his name.

As Captain Sensible would say “You gotta have a dream” and so I will risk my 5 shillings this week on a third consecutive West Ham league win.  Resist the early Villa energy before seizing the advantage with a controlled 2-0 victory.  The resultant league table can become my screensaver for the remainder of the season.  COYI.

Last weekend I was able to sit through the Norwich versus Chelsea match immediately prior to own game at Watford.  Both games were remarkably open affairs with all four teams seemingly prepared to throw caution to the wind.  While West Ham weathered the Watford storm at Vicarage Road and finished much the stronger side, Norwich started their game on top but fell away noticeably for most of the second half.

The results left both clubs in the cluster of clubs sitting on four points who will be looking to build on their solid starts to the season.  With only Liverpool boasting a 100% record and only Watford still to register a win the table has an unusual look about it.

Daniel Farke has created an amazing transformation during his two seasons at Norwich taking them from the lower reaches of the Championship to division champions on a shoestring budget.  When you are a newly promoted club and your marquee signing in the transfer window is Sam Byram says it all.  It will be interesting to see how their season pans out compared to big spending Aston Villa – the two clubs had been relegated together at the end of the 2015/16 season.

Much of the early season buzz at Carrow Road has surrounded Teemu Pukki, whose 5 goals from 3 games has him leading the charge for the Golden Boot.  Pukki is an interesting character having experienced an uninspiring early career (including a very mediocre season at Celtic) before kicking on at Brondby and then at Norwich.  From what I have seen he demonstrates excellent movement and will be a handful for whichever central defensive partnership he comes up against at the London Stadium.  If they can keep him away from Delia’s pies it could be a very influential season for the Finn.  Another player to look out for is Todd Cantwell who looks to be an excellent prospect based on his performance against Chelsea, particularly in the first half.  Seems a bit unfair but they also have Spiderman playing in midfield.

Both teams have been involved in EFL Cup ties since last weekend.  West Ham negotiated a tricky visit to South Wales to face Newport County while Norwich crashed out against Crawley Town.  Premier League teams continue to gamble that their much changed teams have enough to edge past lower league opposition.  Manuel Pellegrini won his gamble whereas Farke did not.

All things being equal I would have expected West Ham to start this weekend’s game with same team that was on the pitch once Michail Antonio replaced Andriy Yarmolenko.  However, an injury to the unlucky Antonio has sidelined him for a while.  The options would be to persevere with Yarmolenko or call in one of Pablo Fornals, Robert Snodgrass or Jack Wilshere.  My concern that more than one of Mark Noble, Snodgrass and Wilshere at any one time reduces the average pace to snail level.  I can’t begin to guess what Pellegrini will go for.

West Ham will have plenty of opportunity to show their attacking qualities but they will also have many Norwich attacks to repel.  The Canaries like to get their full-backs forward to provide width and this could easily expose the Hammers lack of numbers in those areas if the attacking wide men do not put in a defensive shift.

When the two teams met in 2015/16 season both games ended in 2-2 draws – Cheikou Kouyate scoring an injury equaliser at Upton Park and the Hammers coming back from two goals down at Carrow Road.

This weeks real and virtual referees are Paul Tierney and Andre Marriner respectively.  An interesting aspect of VAR is that it hasn’t really overturned many actual decisions made by referees.  Rather it has become a mechanism to review each goal for technical infringements and as a backstop offside checker.  It can’t be long before offside is totally automated, just like the goal-line technology, with the referee receiving a ‘beep’ in his ear each time a forward strays offside.  After all it is a simple case of applying and measuring clearly defined rules – there is no subjectivity to it as with handball.

Everyone will be expecting the game to be a high scoring extravaganza.  I was considering opting for a 7-5 home win to claim the record for the highest scoring Premier League game (Portsmouth 7 Reading 4 in 2007) but instead will go against the flow and predict West Ham to win 1-0.

With an unlikely August Bank Holiday heatwave on the cards, authorities have issued an Amber Alert warning with a forecast of high pressure, soaring temperatures and raging thirsts.  If anything, it sounds like a typical August match day afternoon for hot-under-the-collar West Ham supporters, as the Hammers seek to register a first league win from ten attempts in the opening month of the season – the last August success being the first ever game at the London Stadium in 2016.  To make matters worse, the Met Office are advising those at risk to avoid self-medication with copious quantities of alcohol.

Today’s encounter against Watford at Vicarage Road brings together two of the Premier League’s eight winless clubs.  Both will have pencilled in the fixture as another opportunity to kick-start their seasons.

Manuel Pellegrini has urged supporters to be patient as he searches for to find the right blend from a squad that appears very talented on paper but has failed to deliver yet on the pitch.  It is difficult to know, though, what level of tweaking in formation and personnel the manager has in mind.  After all, he has only effectively brought in two new players – one a direct replacement for the departed Arnautovic and an additional attacking midfielder.  Given that he is firmly rooted in his 4-1-1-3-1 formation, and there was no new recruitment in defensive areas, his options look somewhat limited.

The elephant in the room remains central midfield where, despite 80% of supporters (made up statistic) regarding further defence minded resources as a priority, the manager and coaches did not agree.  Unless there is an ideal free agent out there somewhere, we are stuck with what we have got for the time being – which is a choice of Mark Noble, Jack Wilshere or Robert Snodgrass to fill the gap.  Not a great deal of pace between them, but at least all are meant to be fit and available to play today.

I am sure we all love the skipper for the commitment he has given the club during his long career – he made his first West Ham appearance 15 years ago today.  However, his contribution to the team reaches mythical proportions whenever he has a period of absence.  Many will cite his leadership abilities but there have been just as many feeble performances when he is in the team as when he isn’t.  Having said that, I would still have him as pick of the available bunch for that role.

As to the more advanced positions, the challenge is to select three from Manuel Lanzini, Felipe Anderson, Pablo Fornals, Michail Antonio, Jack Wilshere and Robert Snodgrass to form an effective unit behind (the hopefully fit again) Sebastien Haller.  Of the Three Amigos (Lanzini, Anderson and Fornals), Manuel Lanzini has to be a definite starter and one of the others has to give way as collectively they are too similar and do not offer enough physically.  I think Pellegrini will stick with Anderson if he is considered fully fit.  Antonio has been one or our better players so far this season and would feel himself very unlucky to be on the bench again.  If I were picking the team I would be looking at Wilshere as a candidate for a more advanced role.  He is at his most dangerous there either picking out a killer pass or pulling off a quick one-two.  Whether his body is up to the challenge is another matter.  I don’t see Pellegrini going with that though and would guess at the following starting eleven:

At the back, all fingers and toes have been kept cross since last weekend that Fabian Balbuena will be back in place of Angelo Ogbonna.  I don’t foresee any change to Ryan Fredericks and Arthur Masuaku at full-back who are also needed to provide width in attacking situations.

As important as who is selected to play will be evidence of a better overall tactical effort and level of commitment.  This is my biggest gripe with Pellegrini right now.  It is quite clear that we offer opponents wide open spaces to attack either through the middle of midfield and down the flanks; while the supposed creativity to fashion goalscoring opportunities at the other end has been poor.  What are they doing on the training ground to address these deficiencies?  Yes, it is early season but I have yet to see any other team in the league that is slower, less compact or as careless in possession.  It shouldn’t be a case of looking for a leader on the pitch to stick to a plan, it should be something that is drilled into the players at Rush Green.

Having read reports online from the U23’s winning start to the season they have been playing a high intensity, pressing game and have even arranged additional matches to sharpen fitness.  This is all very admirable but at the same time rather odd in that it is so different from how the first team plays.  Modern football is fast, athletic and physical; all are ranking below average for the Hammers from current available evidence.

Watford, like the town itself, are pointless and goalless.  Manager, Javi Gracia, might have to give up any thoughts of collecting his Watford long service award unless he can remedy the long barren run that goes back to their FA Cup semi-final win.  What better opportunity, however, for a team down on its luck and looking for a boost in confidence than to come up against West Ham.  And remember, Watford have won more Premier League matches against West Ham than they have against any other team.

Today, the Hornets will be missing talisman striker (and their own leader) Troy Deeney but have several very exciting players in their ranks including Roberto Pereyra, Abdoulaye Doucoure and Gerard Deulofeu (a frequent thorn in West Ham’s side).  Great things are also expected from the pacey Ismaila Sarr, who could well make his debut this afternoon.

Today’s on-pitch referee is Chris Kavanagh from Manchester while his video counterpart is Jarred Gillett who is apparently from Australian where he has been VAR-ing since 2017.  What are the chances of a match free from VAR controversy?

Our favourite TV pundits are united this week with both Lawro and Charlie Nicholas predicting a 2-1 Watford win.  I did dream in the week that West Ham won the game 2-1 but before you dash off to the bookies to cash in on my premonition I should tell you that the goalscorers were Jack Wilshere and Paul Kitson – perhaps it was a West Ham Invalids XI.  I am struggling to find any optimism for a positive outcome from the game.  Having predicted two wins so far this season, it is time for caution.  We always find Watford to be tough opponents and even without Deeney they may prove too physical for our rather lightweight and fragile outfit.  In the circumstances, coming away with a point would be a decent outcome: 2-2!

It is safe to assume that the average football supporter experiences a far greater roller coaster of emotional volatility than do the players and coaching staff.  While we have had a week of festering after the early season optimism was so mercilessly crushed last weekend, we must hope that on the training ground there has been a more measured reaction to resolving problems. After all, very few people would have expected there to be any points on the board from our opener although most would have expected fewer entries in the goals against column.

To a certain extent the scale of last week’s defeat was overshadowed by debate of the tactical fouling employed by Manchester City.  With Manuel Pellegrini voicing his displeasure at the City tactics it brought to mind shades of Ron Greenwood, whose gentlemanly approach had him avoid the tough tackling enforcers favoured by many of his management contemporaries.  In truth, successful teams always have their tougher, darker side and even if the game has moved on from the outright thuggery of Revie’s dirty Leeds, a hard, uncompromising edge is still required to consistently bring home the trophies.  Like Greenwood, perhaps Pellegrini is just too nice.

West Ham’s woes aside, the Premier League season kicked off with a great deal of enthusiasm.  Word is that a new breed of managers with new sets of ideas are going to be breath of fresh air, at least in the lower reaches of table.  Farewell, the dour, attritional tactics of Allardyce, Pulis, Hughes and Hughton; welcome, the daring and enterprise of Farke, Wilder, Hasenhüttl, Smith and Potter.  The latter, of course, is now at the helm of today’s opponents, Brighton and Hove Albion.  Only time will tell whether the brave new spirit of adventure survives beyond the barren depths of winter – or whatever the modern day equivalent of a cold, wet Tuesday night in Stoke is.

The Seagulls were the surprise package of the opening weekend with an emphatic 3-0 away win against a muddled Watford side.  Brighton’s expansive style was a far cry from what had been served up under Chris Hughton – but which did ensure Premier League safety for two consecutive seasons.  By all accounts Graham Potter prefers a fluid and flexible formation that switches between 3, 4 or 5 at the back; something which will provide an interesting contrast to Pellegrini’s more predictable (tried but not fully tested) set-up.

Just a week into the season and the perennial injury jinx may have already have raised its ugly head.  Depending on what you read, there may or may not be concerns with the fitness of Felipe Anderson, Sebastien Haller, Jack Wilshere and Andriy Yarmolenko for today’s game.  Old-timers Mark Noble and Winston Reid are definitely unavailable.

The prospect of the Three Amigos (Anderson along with Manuel Lanzini and Pablo Fornals) forming a mesmerizing attacking midfield alliance seemed to promise so much just a week or so ago.  These are players with big reputations, hefty price tags and fat wallets who need to step up to be more than mere supporting parts.  With good fortune it can start today but maybe injuries will force us to wait a little longer to see if it can work in practice.  Will it reinvent West Ham as a team of rapid movement, quick passing and smart interplay or will it once more be all icing and no cake?  I have a lingering concern that exciting as the trio could be it lacks anyone with a cool head and range of passing to take the game by the scruff of the neck and pull the necessary strings.  It is Wilshere that is probably best suited to such a role but not if his freedom is curtailed by having to fill the problem area in central midfield alongside Declan Rice.  The sad thing is that with Noble injured there is no credible alternative to replace him if it was decided to deploy Wilshere further forward.

For a team that has just conceded five goals in a home match we are only likely to see one change in defence where Arthur Masuaku is likely to step in for the hapless Aaron Cresswell.  Since Cresswell’s England call-up a few years ago his form has dropped off significantly, apart from a brief spell as part of a back three under David Moyes.  Perhaps he only looked good at left back when he had Payet to set up perfect overlapping and crossing opportunities.

Injuries permitting here is how I think Pellegrini will line up:

If Haller is really not available, I hope we don’t have to put up with another 60 minutes or so of Javier Hernandez wandering about forlornly to no effect.  Best option in my opinion would be for Michail Antonio to come in to lead the line.  I thought he was very unfortunate to be hauled off at half-time last week.  You know what you are going to get with Antonio – someone with pace, power and muscle who will unsettle defenders.  His lack of finesse doesn’t make him a good fit for a the softly, softly, tippy-tappy style.  Alternatives are Yarmolenko or Albian Ajeti although I don’t see Pellegrini opting for either of these two as a starter.

On the subject of Ajeti, I think if I was a twin and my parents called by brother Adonis it might leave me with an inferiority complex.  A little like “Hi, I’m Brian and this is my twin brother, Thor!”  Maybe Albian also has a significant meaning in Albanian that I am missing.  I am certainly looking forward to seeing him play.

Today’s Physical Assistant Referee is Anthony Taylor from Manchester while the person making all the important decisions will be his Virtual counterpart tucked away underneath the stands.  My blogging partner made some excellent points yesterday in his article about how VAR looks to be exceeding its original brief of righting the wrongs of clear and obvious mistakes.  TV pundits were unanimous in hailing VAR as an overwhelming success although to me this is from the perspective of football as business rather than as an entertainment.  While it cannot be said that VAR got anything wrong last week the danger is that it will spoil the matchday experience for the paying customers in the ground.  Fans will be unable to fully celebrate any goal until it receives official confirmation several minutes later.

For the record, today’s Virtual Assistant Referee’s name is Bond, Darren Bond – Dr No Goal, You Only Score Twice, Dive Another Day and so on.

On this week’s pundit watch we have Lawro back on his favourite fence with a 1-1 draw while Charlie Nicholas fancies West Ham to sneak a 1-0 away win.  As we all know, the Hammers will need to score at least twice to win making allowance for the customary Glen Murray goal.  I have a feeling there could well plenty of goals this afternoon, especially if the promised West Ham attacking creativity gets itself into gear and the defence remains as characteristically charitable.  My optimistic prediction is for a 4-2 away win, although this can only come about through a significant upgrade in resilience and commitment; ensuring that we are not out-fought, out-thought and out-maneuvered by what will be an enthusiastic opponent. COYI!