Author: Geoff Hopkins

The David Moyes Doom Spiral: Is There Any Way Back From The Brink?

As with politics, almost all managerial careers in football end in failure. Are these the final days of David Moyes reign at West Ham or will he launch a counter-offensive as his side take on Leicester City?

It’s been a bad week, so far, at the London Stadium. Quite possibly the limpest performance of the season against Crystal Palace was followed by an ignominious exit from the Carabao Cup at the hands of Blackburn Rovers reserves.

The once muted murmurings surrounding the future of David Moyes in the West Ham hot seat has incrementally risen towards a disturbing crescendo. What was once a small hardcore of supporters ideologically opposed to his appointment in the first place, has grown to an increasing number of Remainers progressively move across into the Leave camp. Is the Grim Reaper of football gaffers heading in his directio?

I’ve never considered Moyes credit with the club was about saving us from relegation. In many ways he is an odd choice to pick as a firefighter in that his brand is more about building effort, stability, and organisation than the spirit and passion demanded of relegation battles. Instead, it is the consecutive top seven Premier League finishes and the ensuing European campaigns that have caused his spell as manager to stand out.

By almost all measures, the 2020/21 season was West Ham’s most spectacular Premier League effort ever.  For the period coinciding with Jesse Lingard’s loan spell there was a swagger and fluidity on display that was as thrilling to watch as it was effective in winning matches. But for the injury to Declan Rice on England duty there would surely have been an excellent chance of Champions League qualification.

Sadly, those heights have not been repeated and today look as far away as ever. Moyes was bewitched by what Lingard added to the team and his transfer strategy became obsessed with a permanent deal. By the time it was obvious that Lingard would stay at Old Trafford no alternatives had been lined up with similar strengths. Aside from Kurt Zouma, the summer 2021 transfer window was a disaster. I don’t go along with the view that Nikola Vlasic was not given a chance by Moyes or was played out of position. He simply didn’t have the attributes for the intensity and physical nature of English league football. He failed at West Ham, just as he had failed at Everton. He is much better suited to the Italian game.

Despite everything, the following season still showed a creditable outcome. Seventh place in the Premier League and a Europa Cup semi-final was certainly an above average West Ham season. Cracks were starting to show in the league though, as form flatlined dramatically after Christmas. In mitigation the demands of Thursday – Sunday football should not be underestimated. Not just from the perspective of player fatigue in a small squad, but also due to the limited time that is left available for match preparation.

The huge mistake of the 2021/22 season was not strengthening in the winter transfer window. The Lingard fixation continued to dominate thinking and the opportunity to boost the squad by bringing in new blood was lost. By the second half of the season, there was a sense that West Ham were no longer a surprise package, the tactics were one dimensional and opposition coaches found them easy to counter. The team were becoming stale and despite raising their game for impressive European performances against Sevilla and Lyon, a rot had set in.

That brings us finally to this season, which has been a shocker by any definition. Significant amounts of money were spent on transfers, even if most of the business was completed too late in the day to start the season well prepared. Overall, the summer signings looked decent enough on paper and the squad had a far stronger look to it. But that added strength has failed to materialise on the pitch – and will continue to do so while the manager insists on stubbornly sticking to the same tactics, just with different names on the shirts. Where Moyes initial success was understandably pragmatic – getting the best from limited resources – he has lately been attempting to shoehorn more talented players into the same style, even though it clearly doesn’t suit them.

No matter how encouraging the summer purchases appear to be, the types of players that weren’t signed are equally pertinent. Despite the drawn out and ultimately fruitless pursuit of Lingard, no-one with similar attributes (which clearly were a Moyes priority) was eventually brought into the squad. Further, no left back was signed even though a long-term replacement for Aaron Cresswell had been apparent for many, many months. The last-minute signing of Emerson as the left sided defensive backup has every hallmark of a panic buy.

Received wisdom is that integrating a host of new players into a team will always a challenge. I cannot argue with that. It is the reason why bringing in a few in January or doing the summer business early would have made clear sense. Indeed, I think many would cut the manager some slack if it looked like a more progressive, less passive style was evolving. But it hasn’t, it is more of the same. The style has remained the same, and perversely the execution has become worse. It is an unfortunate fact of modern footballing life that standing still means going backwards

The negative approach of defending deep and in numbers, the poor passing and ball retention, and the dearth of movement and fluidity through the middle, all continue to be alarmingly apparent. With everyone behind the ball, who is there left to pass to? The imbalance between hard work and flair has created a side that is pedestrian, and which expects its attacking players to spend more time focused on defence, than threatening the opponent’s goal.

The only player in the squad capable of running with the ball (and having it under control) is Declan Rice. None of the other attack minded players have either the ability or the pace to do so reliably – only Moyes believes Manuel Lanzini can still offer this. The upshot is there is no obvious out-ball to relieve pressure or to build attacks when possession is won, a further contributing factor to poor ball retention. There just seem to be so many structural faults in the side right now, and no plan to address them.

To make matters even worse, notoriously slow starts have been added to the matchday playbook. Are the first half of games written off – hoping, perhaps, to snatch something late on with the energy conserved in the first forty-five minutes? This has happened far too frequently, in too many games, for it not to be an intentional tactic.

Clearly, it is not my decision whether the manager stays or goes. That is down to the board. Previously, they have waited and waited before pulling the trigger, but there are now obvious parallels to the last days of Bilic and Pellegrini. Although loyalty is an admirable quality, the question the board members must ask themselves is: “does Moyes have what it takes to turn things around?” It’s not a simple question of fighting for survival – surely finishing anywhere in the bottom half would be regarded as serious failure after the investment that has been made. It is about having the right man in place for the longer-term development of the club. A man with progressive ideas who is not stuck with outdated ways. I would be quite happy for Moyes to prove he can do it, but to my mind, it would require a scale of conversion rarely seen outside of road trips to Damascus.

I have read elsewhere that those inside the game believe it would be madness for West Ham to sack Moyes. It’s a valid point of view to take if you are looking from a distance only at past performance. The pundit community mostly operates as a mutual back-slapping fraternity insulated from supporters who might consider entertainment just as important as results. The common pundit line is one of players letting down the manager – which does raise the question as to whether the level of solidarity in the dressing room has decayed since the departure of Mark Noble?

Timing is the other issue that the Board must consider. The imminent break for the World Cup feels like the perfect opportunity for a club thinking of a managerial change to make a move. It allows the new man time to settle in, work on new ideas and prepare for any adjustments required in the transfer window. Is it an opportunity too good to be missed?

Whatever the Board’s current inclination – and noises to date are that they are in support of Moyes – today’s game against Leicester will be an nervous affair. It will not be lost on the opposition that another frustrating start by the home side is likely to produce a toxic atmosphere inside the stadium. It will be in their interests to play on that.

Brendan Rodgers is another manager who has struggled of late in his attempts to evolve to a more possession based style of play. For a few seasons the Foxes were the team most likely to disrupt the ‘big six’ but have lost their recently way due to financial difficulties and player departures. Signs of recovery have started to show after a dreadful start to the season, and they have conceded just one goal in the last five league outings. They certainly carry enough of a threat – in the form of James Madison, Youri Tielemans and Harvey Barnes – to worry a hesitant and accident prone Hammers.

Despite everything, I cannot join those hoping that a West Ham defeat will lead to a change of manager. I will always want them to win every game they play and will not cross that line today. But I’m not sure what to expect. A new mindset from Moyes? A more front-foot approach from the team? Or another slow start and an uprising in the stands? The finger nails will be taking a battering. COYI?

In Like Flynn: Changing The Guard For The Visit Of Palace

Will David Moyes stick with caution and his old favourites or adopt the spirit of adventure and enterprise that his players can now offer?

Thursday evening’s game against FCSB turned out to be a far more entertaining spectacle than originally anticipated. Even the manager and coaches on the West Ham bench seemed surprised how well their scratch Hammer’s XI had performed. Who knew that fluidity, movement, passing the ball through the middle and early purposeful delivery from the flanks could reap such rewards?

The performances of Oliver Scarles, in particular, but also Divin Mubama generated plenty of welcome and well-deserved praise for the youngsters. As ever the club were not slow to jump on the bandwagon extolling the virtues of the ‘Academy of Football’. Yet reality tells a different story. Of an academy whose output has been sporadic at best since that golden age around the turn of the century. Hopefully, a bumper crop is on the way and it would be great to see at least two youngsters on every bench, who are given experience at every opportunity.

There can be no argument as to the effectiveness of our Europa Conference campaign to date. The group may not have offered the sternest of tests, but games still need to be won. And six out six ain’t bad! The competition now represents the most direct path to a first major title since 1980 – and a third consecutive season of European football. The most significant obstacle on the way will undoubtedly be Villareal – currently joint favourites alongside West Ham to lift the trophy in early June. Avoiding them until Prague would be good!

If you look at current UEFA coefficients, there are six clubs remaining in the Conference ranked higher than West Ham. The Hammers have climbed to 48th in the overall rankings – not bad going for a side that has only competed in two of the five seasons that qualify for points. The six higher ranked clubs being: Villareal (18th), Basel (34th), Braga (35th), Lazio (38th), and AZ Alkmaar (44th).

There is a long break now until the 9 March 2023 before the first leg of the Round of Sixteen kicks-off and we will not know who the opponents will be until 24 February. With three of their teams remaining in the hat, probability dictates that a trip to Turkey could well be on the cards.

Europe has added a lustre to an otherwise muted season for David Moyes and his team. Many appreciate the Moyesiah’s fine work since his second coming and the fact that we can realistically talk of three consecutive seasons of European football is testament enough to that. But it is clear that his approach is becoming stale. Change is needed but is happening far too slowly now that his team are no longer an unknown quantity. It really has to be time to throw off the caution both in personnel and tactics and introduce a measure of adventure into the game plan.

There is amazing consistency in the preferred side and formation that I see suggested online by significant numbers of West Ham fans. It is along the lines of: Areola – Kehrer, Dawson, Zouma, Cresswell – Downes, Rice, Paqueta – Bowen, Scamacca, Benrahma (or Antonio). Can they all be wrong? Time to give it a try? I think so!

It would be a travesty if Flynn Downes does not start in his natural position, alongside Declan Rice tomorrow. Some games might need the extra height that Tomas Soucek brings as auxiliary defensive cover – this is not one of them. Downes has much more to his game; full of energy, strong in the tackle, plays on his toes, and moves the ball quickly and accurately. Every side needs a handful of players with such no-nonsense attributes. He could also prove to be the perfect foil for Lucas Paqueta, creating the space required for the Brazilian to flourish.      

West Ham go into tomorrow’s home fixture against Crystal Palace as the lowest placed of the seven London clubs. I doubt any of us expected that after thirteen games; or that the Hammers would have lost over half of the league matches played. Two wins from the two matches remaining before the break would paint a healthier picture but we will start the game no more than three points off the relegation places.

Crystal Palace sit two points better off than the Hammers, having played one game less. Their record of won four, lost four, drawn four typifies a mixed bag of fortunes and results – they have yet to win away this term. In fact, their position closely mirrors a typical Palace season, (since their return to the topflight in 2013) which usually sees them finishing in a narrow band between 10th and 14th.

Current manager Patrick Viera is the Eagles eighth since their Premier League return. His illustrious career as one of the Premier League’s finest midfild players gives him an aura that has yet to translate to managerial success.  Admittedly he inherited an ageing squad from Roy Hodgson but while he has attempted to address that, results on the pitch have yet to show much improvement. It is said that Viera has adopted a more possession based approach, yet the stats show them marginally behind West Ham on that measure.

For the eighth season running, Wilfried Zaha will pose the greatest Palace threat, unless it is one of those afternoons where he gets wound up and spends the entire ninety minutes complaining – an early encounter with Craig Dawson might do the trick. Elsewhere Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise are capable of providing dangerous but inconsistent moments, while old warhorse Jordan Ayew will spend his time looking for trouble and scowling angrily at anyone who crosses his path.

It’s been four seasons since West Ham last beat Crystal Palace at home. So, high time that authority was exerted and the natural order of things restored. A 3-1 home win. COYI!

Sliding Tackles – What If West Ham Had Beaten Eintracht Frankfurt?

The European Conference League group stages splutter to and end for West Ham with a dead rubber tie in Bucharest. Can they raise the enthusiasm to make it six wins out of six?

Seeing Eintracht Frankfurt make it through to the last sixteen of the Champions League made me wonder what might have happened in a parallel reality had things worked out differently in last seasons Europa League semi-final. What if Aaron Cresswell hadn’t had a rush of blood to the head in the 19th minute, didn’t receive a foolish red card, and West Ham had gone on to overturn the one goal first-leg deficit? A footballing Sliding Doors moment, or Sliding Tackles, in this case.

Granted it would still have required the Hammers also to overcome Glasgow Rangers in the final – no foregone conclusion if pre-season friendlies were anything to go by – but how might our boys team have fared in the glare of Champions League floodlights? Could they have emulated the admirable success of Frankfurt or would it have been the abject failure of Rangers?

Frankfurt probably got lucky in being drawn into one of the weaker or, at least, more balanced of groups – but that should not detract from their fine achievement. Their squad is not radically different to the one we met last May and net summer spending was a modest €6 million. West Ham target, Filip Kostic departed for Juventus while the largest outlay was the permanent signing of loanee Jens Petter Hauge (the player Cresswell had fouled) who was promptly loaned out to Gent in Belgium. Kostic’s replacement was another reported Hammer’s target, Luca Pellegrini, signed on a season long loan from Juventus. In addition to their impressive Champions League exploits, Frankfurt also currently sit a creditable fifth in the Bundesliga.

So what if West Ham had qualified for the Champions League? Would it have been easier to recruit new players in the summer, get the first choices in early and have a reasonably settled side before the season started? Or would the usual haggling and dithering have been just the same?

Despite never being wholly convincing, the Hammers Europa Conference campaign has mostly been a walk in the park against the also-rans of the Denmark, Romania, and Belgium leagues. How might they have fared in group games against the likes of Marseille or Sporting Lisbon? Or against one of the qualifiers from either Italy or Germany – as it would not have been possible to be drawn against Tottenham? Would we have seen the same negative away day tactics that have become the norm in domestic matches against ‘bigger’ clubs?  

Many unknowns but my feeling is that dropping down to the Europa League would have been the most likely outcome. We can never know and the best we can now hope for is another shot at the Europa League next year. It remains the easiest route to the holy grail of Champions League participation for a club like ours.

I’m sure we were all shocked when the cunning David Moyes plan of ‘not trying to score until going a goal down’ failed once again to pay dividends at Old Trafford. Do you think he has spotted a pattern yet? We will have to wait until Boxing Day when his team visit Arsenal to see how Plan B is coming along.

Back in the present reality, there is a meaningless final Conference League group game tonight as West Ham travel to play FCSB, the club formerly known as Steaua Bucharest. Apparently, a West Ham win would be the first time any club has won all six games in this particular competition’s group stages. Even the most desperate manager would be embarrassed to put that on his CV!  

By all accounts it will be a mix of second string and youth players representing the Hammers tonight. According to one unverified source, the only first-team squad members travelling to Romania were Areola, Randolph, Ogbonna, Coufal, Ashby, Johnson, Aguerd, Downes, Coventry, Fornals and Lanzini. So that could very well mean Darren Randolph doing a Les Sealey turn up front!

Still no sign of Maxwell Cornet who was last seen wandering the labyrinth of corridors in the West Ham treatment facility – searching for the way out. You can check out, but you can never leave!

I should be looking forward to seeing a few youngsters getting a run out in tonight’s game – unleashed, I think, is the technical term. Hopefully it will be for more than three minutes of added time, although with the U21s rock bottom of the Premier League 2 perhaps we shouldn’t be getting too excited. But it would be a great experience for the lads involved.

Very difficult to generate any real enthusiasm for the game with all jeopardy removed, but hoping it’s an enjoyable trip for any travelling fans. West Ham to win 2-1. COYI!

West Ham Head To Old Trafford On Sunday: Can They Find A North-West Passage To Victory?

The cities of Manchester and Liverpool have never been happy hunting grounds for West Ham. Can they break the hoodoo at Manchester United or will they yet again be north-west passengers?

The midweek Europa Conference game against Silkeborg ended in the type of unexceptional victory that has become commonplace in the late stage group games. West Ham were all but assured of top spot prior to kick-off and the visitors would have been aware that next week’s home fixture against Anderlecht was their key to progressing in the competition. The game really should have been more of a stroll for the Hammers but once their finishing was about as convincing as a politician’s promise.

Still. it was good to get a first competitive glimpse of Nayef Aguerd. Without being tested it provided an encouraging teaser for we might expect from a speedy, ball-playing central defender. There was also an accomplished performance from Conor Coventry. He may be some way down the defensive midfield pecking order – unless David Moyes fancies picking four of them together at some point – but he is now firm favourite for the tidiest haircut since Scott Parker award.

I can’t help thinking the club is going a little over the top with their seven home wins on the trot marketing campaign, especially when considering the quality offered by much of the opposition. I suppose they were games that needed to be won, though. As for the Conference, we can now look forward to the most pointless match ever held for next week’s trip to Bucharest. Are we allowed to field the Under 13’s?

Sunday sees a return to league action against another of the sides enjoying the rigours of Thursday – Sunday football. Manchester United have now guaranteed group qualification but must triumph at Real Sociedad next week to avoid the play-off round lottery in the Europa League.

Trips to Old Trafford may not be as fruitless for West Ham as they are to Anfield, but there’s not much in it. The Hammers have returned with all the points on just six occasions since 1958; just twice in the Premier League era with the last time being the great escape in the final game of the 2006/7 season. With an equally dismal record against Manchester City, and even Everton proving a regular bogey side, trips to the north-west rarely turn out well. Since the Hammers most recent return to the Premier League they have lost 31 of 42 league matches played in Manchester and Liverpool (won six and drawn five). Indeed it is a record that has been passed down from manager to manager.

Although facing the Red Devils is nowhere near as daunting as it once was, it should be pointed out that Liverpool, Arsenal and Tottenham have already been beaten this season at Old Trafford. The home side may not yet be credible title challengers but they will certainly be in the mix for a top four finish.

Then there are the lurking perils of VAR. If you cast your mind back to the equivalent fixture last season, the home side won the game with the last kick of the game. Despite a strong suspicion that Cavani was offside before he played in Rashford to score, the goal was expediently awarded with indecent haste. No three or four minutes of line and angle drawing at Stockley Park on this occasion – the players were back in the dressing room by then.    

I have run the numbers and the eXpected VAR balls up ratio (xVAR) comes out as 1.9 : 0.2. This week our fate is in the hands, whistle and mouse of Chris Kavanagh (referee) and Paul Tierney (VAR). The current standard, consistency and subjective nature of officiating reminded me of playing football over the park as kids – with the legendary jumpers for goalposts. If you shouted ‘post’ or ‘over’ quickly and loudly enough, it was often all that was needed to get a goal chalked off!

I think most West Ham supporters expect a further dose of David Moyes cautious medicine tomorrow.  Initiative will be surrendered, opposition will be shown too much respect, defending will be as deep as possible, all in the hope of scoring on the break. His well-known inferiority complex preferring to hang on passively rather than forcefully targeting the host’s weaknesses.

With Lucas Paqueta again nursing his mysterious shoulder injury, Moyes may well persist with the unusual defensive midfield triumvirate of Declan Rice, Tomas Soucek, and Flynn Downes that featured against Bournemouth. It screams lack of creativity and ambition but may just work if the three selected further forward are predominantly attack minded players – e.g. three from Said Benrahma, Gianluca Scamacca, Jarrod Bowen, and Michail Antonio. At the rear the much-missed Craig Dawson is adding weight to the axiom that West Ham injuries always take longer to heal than originally anticipated. Dawson partnering Kurt Zouma in the centre with Thilo Kehrer and Aaron Cresswell as full-backs provides a solid enough backline.

The hosts may make several change to the team that shot three past Sheriff in midweek, with frequent West Ham irritant Rashford replacing the increasingly petulant Ronaldo. As usual the Red Devils have a surfeit of attacking talent but invariably look shaky at the back. If only West Ham could bring their clinical shooting boots with them.

Interviewed after the Silkeborg game, Aguerd (very good English) said the team set out to win every game. Is that true, does he believe it, or hasn’t he been around long enough to know differently? Observation and experience suggest the first priority is not to lose every game. Who knows, perhaps the spots on the leopard can be purposefully re-arranged this weekend? More probable, I think, is a goal apiece draw. COYI!

On Handling The Cherries And Preparing For A Danish: West Ham Take On Silkeborg

West Ham set to seal Group B champions spot as they face Silkelborg at the London Stadium. The match may feature the long awaited debut for long-term absentee Nayef Aguerd.

I spent the weekend watching far too many Premier League games on TV than was strictly necessary. There must be more productive things to do when West Ham have been relegated to the Monday night slot. The experience left me with three random observations.

First, what is the point of the Oracle Cloud Win Probability that pops every twenty minutes or so? And are the commentators contractually obliged to mention it’s findings? Manchester City are leading 2-0 and are more likely to win than their opponents. Really, who knew? How is such an insight meant to inform or entertain?

Second, can TV producers please step back from their irritating and increasing tendency to look for arty angles to shoot the action from? As if they are filming a re-make of Escape To Victory. Doesn’t the TV viewer want an equivalent view to what would be experienced in the stadium, not a close up of Jack Grealish’s boots?

Third, and most importantly, if you have no particular skin in the game (i.e. West Ham are not involved) the entertainment value of games is not that great – for what is said to be the best league in the world. There may be momentary flashes of sublime skill, plus the occasional intriguing tactical battle, but take out the partisanship and many games tend towards the dreary for long periods. At least they did this weekend. Perhaps that is why we need the VAR talking points. To stop us nodding off or getting distracted by an animated dancing donkey video on TikTok.

The West Ham – Bournemouth game is unlikely to feature on anyone’s future list of best ever games. The various VAR debates will live far longer in the memory than any of the action on the pitch, and that seems true of so many games these days. No surprise that the West Ham and Bournemouth camps were not in full agreement on the decisions of Messrs Coote and Dean. Post match several ex-referees have given their opinion that according to the letter of the laws (or their current interpretation), both decisions were the correct ones. It is clear, though, that the offside and handball laws in particular need a thorough overhaul. Not to make them easier for VAR to review but to make them more consistent with their original sporting intentions.

Player ratings are another area where strong disagreements arise. Most are probably made up on the hoof without much thought and based on overall impressions – and influenced by individual prejudices. I doubt many are completely objective. Many years ago I think it was only the Sunday People that gave player ratings but in the modern era where it is possible to rate anything and everything (bus stops, flyovers, toilets and so on) they have become ubiquitous. Below is a selection from Monday night’s game.

Football London followed the path of least resistance and gave every West Ham player a 7, while anointing Kurt Zouma as their first among equals STAR MAN (come on Football London couldn’t that have been an 8?). iNews and the Evening Standard were all at 6’s and 7’s aside from the bold iNews decision to award Jarrod Bowen an 8; and the Standard in giving Said Benrahma, 8 and Gianluca Scamacca a sorry 5. Claret & Hugh mostly echoed the Standard ratings but with an additional 8 for Declan Rice. The award for the most creative ratings goes to West Ham Zone whose distribution included Bowen (3), Ben Johnson (4), 8’s for Rice, Benrahma and Thilo Kehrer, and a 9 for Zouma.

In comparison, the stats website, Whoscored, takes an algorithmic approach to its ratings based on a myriad of measurable player actions that are recorded during the course of the game. From that data, Whoscored rated Zouma, Aaron Cresswell, Benrahma, and Tomas Soucek as the Hammer’s top performers (all above 7.5) while Bowen lagged behind as worst of the bunch (excluding late substitutions).

Reading various message boards after the game, I saw plenty of criticism of Soucek, but much of that might be muscle memory from prior performances. I thought he was played more to his strengths against Bournemouth which, as we know, are headed clearances and ghosting in late for goalscoring opportunities. It’s unfortunate that elsewhere on the pitch the messages from his brain take far too long to reach his feet. The emergence of Flynn Downes now presents a conundrum for Moyes as a threesome with Rice, Soucek, and Flynn Downes, leaves one a defensive midfield gooseberry.

It’s a return to Europa Conference League action tonight as West Ham welcome Danish Super Liga club, Silkeborg to the London Stadium. The Hammers are already assured of progressing to the next phase of the competition while Silkeborg are the only club able to overhaul them as group champions. Although it would take a run of freak results to that. To secure top spot West Ham need either a win, a draw or to come out on top in the head-to-head aggregate score against the visitors. A 1-0 or 2-1 defeat would be good enough.

Silkeborg currently sit fourth in their domestic league, two places behind Viborg who the Hammers earlier beat in Conference League qualifying.  They are leading scorers in their league but also have one of the leakiest defences. At the weekend they went down 3-2 away to Horsens after going down to ten men just after the break.

In the reverse fixture between the two clubs, the Hammers won 3-2, recovering from an early home goal, racing to a 3-1 lead and then surviving a late scare after Silkeborg pulled one back. The Danes followed this up with two impressive 5-0 thrashings of FCSB to move into second place. Their final group match will be at home to Anderlecht next week.

David Moyes will likely ring a host of changes in the starting eleven, leaving his bigger guns on the bench in case of accident. Students of the training session videos sent out by the club are suggesting the involvement of Conor Coventry and Pierre-Emmanuel Ekwah in addition to the normal midweek shadow squad. There may even be a welcome West Ham debut for long term absentee Nayef Aguerd at some point during proceedings.    

I’m fully expecting the Hammers to do just enough to get the job done, but not expecting any fireworks. Possibly another 3-2 win. COYI!

West Ham Versus Bournemouth: All The Things You Don’t Need To Know

All eyes will be on David Moyes as he cherry picks his West Ham side to face Bournemouth at the London Stadium

In a period of rampant fixture congestion prior to the Qatar World Cup it feels perverse to ask a team involved in midweek European competition to play their weekend fixture late on a Monday night. Once a big deal in the early days of live televised football, the glamour of the Monday night match has waned to become the home of fixtures with minority appeal. A perfect example of after the Lord Mayor’s show, but still preferable to the Friday night slot.

The weekend’s games have seen the Hammers left floundering in 17th place of the Premier League standings, teetering just above the dotted line of doom. As ever, the curse of VAR continued to infect the once beautiful game. When it comes to the poor standard of refereeing, a problem shared is a problem doubled. On-pitch and off-field officials compound each other’s flawed judgements and mistakes. The probability of error is being added rather than multiplied.

If the technology were being applied correctly, there would be a move towards greater consistency, not away from it. A penalty awarded for Chelsea but denied for Arsenal in almost identical circumsatances, just as the judo throw on Tomas Soucek also went unnoticed at Southampton. Haaland being allowed to use power and strength to barge through defenders, while Michail Antonio is regularly penalised for doing exactly the same.

Add to that the two-to-three-minute delay at Manchester City (as the game went on around them) before the ludicrous award of a ‘clear and obvious’ home penalty especially with a strong suspicion that Silva had engineered the tackle in the first place.

Although bizarre VAR decisions have played a supporting part in West Ham’s stuttering start to the season, both manager and team have struggled to look anywhere close to convincing. While a plea of misfortune could be entered for points dropped in games against Forest, Chelsea, Southampton and Liverpool, little evidence exists that the Hammers can reprise the exploits of the last two seasons.

If I were asked to summarise this season’s performances to date, it would be a team that is over-cautious, too willing to concede possession, poor at passing, and weak at finishing. But do the statistics bear that out?

I think the reason Moyes team appears overly cautious is the reliance on a low block and the lack of pressing higher up the pitch. The Hammers score low on number of presses, especially in the attacking third – preferring to retreat to the edge of their own area. Creating a disciplined compact defensive shape was one of Moyes tactical victories in stopping the rot left by Pellegrini. The culture persists today and only four teams in the Premier League have conceded fewer goals this season. But compact in defence can easily become congested in possession if there is not good movement. It is difficult to validate this from publicly available stats, but observation suggest a lack of fluidity, few third man runs, and a dearth of passing opportunities that feature in the play of most successful sides.

Possession stats have risen a little in the past few weeks, up now to 44% and higher than five other clubs in the division. Surprisingly, the Hammers are mid-table when it comes to passing accuracy, roughly equal to Newcastle. But when looking at the progressive distance of those passes, it shows them slipping down the table – suggesting a higher proportion of passes that are short or go sideways and backward. What is not clear to me is whether a below par passing game is down to individual player weaknesses or to match tactics which stymie a fluent passing game – which is the chicken and which is the egg?

Interestingly, West Ham sit eighth in terms of total number of shots but are well down the rankings for shots on target (and of course, goals scored). In fact, only Wolves have a worse record for percentage of shots on targets. West Ham’s 25% of shots on target is strikingly unfavourable compared to the 38% achieved by both Arsenal and Tottenham. What is the opposite of clinical?

I’ve had a long held soft spot for tonight’s visitors dating back to their time as a plucky lower league side. For some years, I lived on the south coast but the association started even before that, when I attended a Bournemouth versus Luton game in 1969 during a family holiday. It was first professional game I had gone to that didn’t feature West Ham. The battle of the Supermacs – Ted MacDougall for the hosts and Malcolm Macdonald for the visitors – ended as a 1-0 away win. The club has also had a strong West Ham connection over the years with John Bond, Trevor Hartley, Harry Redknapp, Kevin Bond, Jimmy Quinn, Scott Parker and now Gary O’Neil all spending time in the Cherry’s manager’s seat.

I half expected Bournemouth to fade back into lower league obscurity following their 2020 relegation, so full credit to them for making it back to the big time and putting together a creditable start to the current campaign, despite early season hammerings by Manchester City, Arsenal, and Liverpool. Since O’Neil took charge, the Cherrys have won two, drawn four and lost just once.

According to most reports, West Ham will be without Nayef Aguerd and Lucas Paqueta tonight and doubts continue with the fitness of Craig Dawson and Maxwell Cornet. That suggests a continuation of the Kurt Zouma / Thilo Kehrer centre-back pairing – assuming Angelo Ogbonna is not consider a credible starter these days – with either Ben Johnson or Vladimir Coufal at right back. I am hoping that Paqueta’s absence means a rare start for Said Benrahma to offer at least a hint of guile, and that Flynn Downes gets another chance to impress following his fine performance at Anfield. My concern again would be a midfield top-heavy with defensive minded players unable to provide the level of support required by the front players. We are, after all playing at home – against Bournemouth!

A home win today would bounce West Ham into the top half of the table – onto page one of Teletext, as it was. Defeat would leave them mired in a congested mob of clubs looking nervously downwards. There is a lot to play for and it is a time to boldly go for it. Maybe time for an extended look at Gianluca Scamacca and Michail Antonio as a joint attacking force. We can dream!

Apparently, the Hammers have built a reputation as Monday night masters, having won their last five fixtures on that particular graveyard shift – who keeps tabs on this sort of thing? I will be surprised and disappointed if they don’t make it six in a row. But what we do know, is that they will make hard work of it. West Ham to win 2-1. COYI!

Hammers Have Hope In Their Hearts For Annual Anfield Altercation

Will the dreams be tossed and blown or will they fade and die as West Ham make the annual pointless trip up north to play Liverpool

According to popular wisdom: “it is better to travel in hope than to arrive”. That has certainly been the case for West Ham visits to Liverpool in the past. A contest that has seen the visitors accumulate a paltry three away wins in ninety-nine years of competition. Recent experience provides no greater comfort with a run of five straight defeats since the Hammers last came away with a point in December 2016. Famously, a 50+ year hoodoo had been broken the previous season – but that was not to be start of a new era and the fixture continues to carry the hallmarks of a contractual obligation.

The ‘travel in hope’ quotation is said to have been coined by by Robert Louis Stevenson. Quite appropriate then that it would require a monstrous Jekyll and Hyde type transformation from last weekend’s respective performances for the visitors to improve on their sad record.

Following Liverpool’s stuttering start to the season, where their problem has been far too many drawn games, it was a shock to see them stifle and defeat a free-scoring Manchester City side, who I had earmarked as potential Invincibles material. Perhaps they were fortunate that Haaland had gone ‘off the boil’ by extending his goal drought to a whole match! Still it was a far more energetic and purposeful performance by the hosts in which the only straw clutching hope is that it may have taken a lot out of them – and resulted in one or two more injuries.

True to form, VAR once again found itself at the centre of attention when it went into overdrive to disallow what might heve been Manchester City’s opener. Had Haaland pulled Fabinho’s force with sufficient grippage (is that a word?) ; did Haaland subsequently kick the ball out of Alissons hands; if not, should that have constituted a new phase of play; does anyone understand the rules; do they make them up as they go along? Suffice to say, we shouldn’t expect any favours from the VAR team this evening.

As for the Hammers, it was a case of two points dropped at St Marys Stadium on Sunday. The absence of four recognised central defenders from the West Ham line-up set the scene for the game with David Moyes opting for an unusual all-full-back back three of Ben Johnson, Thilo Kehrer, and Aaron Cresswell. As I have written before, my aversion to playing three at the back is not that it is negative, but because there’s no-one in the squad capable of playing effectively as wing-backs. Vladimir Coufal and Emerson went on to prove that point perfectly. Sad to see that Coufal received abuse on social media. Whatever the shortcomings or poor form of various players, I don’t see any that are not giving 100%.

The makeshift defence started like a group of strangers and although understanding steadily improved, the Hammers found themselves a goal down by then. It was a goal conceded in bizarre circumstances when hapless referee, Peter Bankes, body checked Jarrod Bowen to present Perraud with a shooting opportunity. Bankes, and his VAR minder, would later go on to miss a penalty area judo throw on Tomas Soucek – the type of challenge that was penalised at every other ground over the weekend.

If the starting line-up that Moyes opted for could be seen as understandable in the circumstances, his substitutions were once more beyond perplexing. His team had been well on top for most of the game. Possession, goal attempts and corner kicks were off the scale, and Southampton had given up any pretence of trying to score. Only one team were capable of going on to win the game. Surely, time to give it a real go – an opportunity to see Giancarlo Scamacca and Michail Antonio terrorise the Saints defence for the final ten or fifteen minutes? But no, that’s just what they would have expected us to do. Far better to take off your biggest goal threats and tamely play out the remaining minutes to bank the point. A lovely goal by Declan Rice, by the way!

This week’s episode of Centre Back Crisis season 2 is the subject of conflicting reports. Wishful thinking says that at least one of Kurt Zouma and Craig Dawson should be available to play, while past performance indicates that recoveries always take longer than anticipated from the West Ham sickbay. It’s good news that Nayef Aguerd is nearing first team action and it can’t come soon enough. Relying on the ageing bodies of Dawson and Angelo Ogbonna in a packed programme of fixtures is never going to end well.

Even in perfect conditions, a trip to Anfield is a daunting task for West Ham. Having to play the same defence that took the field at Southampton would bring the pessimism level down several more notches. A silver lining is that Liverpool have their own injury problems, except they are still able to throw the combined talents of Salah, Firmino and Nunez at our depleted defences. The confirmed team news will be viewed with interest. If Antonio is preferred to Scamacca it will be obvious what sort of evening we are in for. An ultra-low block with hopeful punts up-field as the one and only outlet.

Perhaps Moyes will pull a surprise for once. But his record and deference against the ‘big six’ is well known. Over the past two seasons of relative West Ham success, his teams have lost sixteen of twenty-four games played against the ‘elite’. Away from home the record is poor in the extreme: played twelve, won none, drawn one, and lost eleven. Only Manuel Lanzini’s very last minute strike at Tottenham preventing an outright whitewash.

In the interests of travelling hopefully though, perhaps there’s an outside chance we can escape with a point. COYI!

Are Upbeat West Ham Ready To Exploit The Irregular Rhythm Of The Saints?

Despite the winning mentality building at West Ham out of recent league and European exploits it will be a tough test on the south coast against under pressure Southampton

When asked what he thought about football, a wise man once said: “It’s a funny old game.” It’s a fascinating insight and one that is particularly pertinent when it comes to football management. How else can you explain why anyone would want to give Steve Bruce a job?

Very few managers these days ever get to win a trophy – such is the financial dominance of a small group of powerful clubs. In the past ten seasons, the three major English honours have been shared by just five clubs (sorry, Tottenham) on all but four occasions – Leicester’s league title in 2016 and FA Cup win in 2020, Wigan’s FA Cup in 2013, and Swansea’s League Cup, also in the same year. In the last five seasons, Manchester City have won nine of the fifteen prizes on offer.

For anyone managing outside the richest clubs, success is purely relative. Trying to keep the owners and supporters happy (in that order) by maximising prize money and steering clear of relegation. Buried somewhere in their priority list is a precarious balance between expectations, results and entertainment.  

Just a few weeks ago, the ominous rasp of knives being sharpened might well have haunted David Moyes dreams. But a run of six wins from seven games (in all competitions) has been enough to silence his band of critics for now. A strong enough position to see off at least another two or three Prime Ministers.

Although the Hammer’s league position still leaves much to be desired, securing another feast of post-Christmas European football adds further credit to the manager’s account. In truth, a Premier League side not being able to qualify from a Europa Conference group must be regarded as a monumental failure (sorry, again Tottenham). Still, doing so with two games to spare, and using a largely second-string set of players, could not have gone any better.

This week, by complete coincidence, I came across a critique of Jose Mourinho’s management style by Spanish journalist, Diego Torres. Not a huge fan of the Special One, Torres distilled Mourinho’s footballing philosophy into the following principles:

  • The game is won by the team who commit fewer errors.
  • Football favours whoever provokes more errors in the opposition.
  • Away from home, instead of trying to be superior to the opposition, it’s better to encourage their mistakes.
  • Whoever has the ball is more likely to make a mistake
  • Whoever renounces possession reduces the possibility of making a mistake.
  • Whoever has the ball has fear.
  • Whoever does not have it is thereby stronger.

While it would be harsh to tar Moyes with precisley the same brush, there are certainly familiar themes – which become more visible as better players are brought into the club. When Moyes first arrived he did an amazing job of getting the best from the limited resources he had available. But as the value of his squad increases, he needs to demonstrate more variety in his game plan. The cycle of defend deep, break quickly, and score from set pieces cannot repeat indefinitely. The squad now has players that can add creativity to the energy and organisation, but there needs to be more freedom, less inhibition, greater adventure, improved fluidity and movement; and less respect for opponent’s reputations.

The transition is not an easy one, but there can be no linear path in football for clubs like ours. Without a preception of success, improvement, and momentum, the better players will move on, and it will be back to square one. See Leicester City for details.

Today, West Ham travel to the south coast to meet floundering Southampton. A string of four consecutive defeats, including reverses against Wolves, Villa, and Everton has seen the Saints slip alarmingly down the table and propelled Ralph Hasenhuttl to frontrunner in the managerial sack race, currently neck and neck with Steven Gerrard at Villa. A good time for West Ham to play them or will we see a survival mode response from the home side?

If there were to be an armchair poll of supporter’s preferred West Ham line-ups, my instinct is that it would show a strong desire for Alphonse Areola to replace Lucasz Fabianski, Flynn Downes to replace Tomas Soucek, and anyone (Michail Antonio, Said Benrahma or Maxwell Cornet) to replace Pablo Fornals. It is certainly what I have been longing to see, although none of that is likely to happen today.

Moyes has spoken highly of Downes in recent weeks but appears set on bringing him on minute by minute in the league. Last weekend Downes doubled his Premier League minutes from one to two; a rate that doesn’t suggest a stunningly rapid development plan. Surely, he must be given a twenty to thirty minute shift before too long.

The persistence with Fornals is the perfect example of Moyes’ aversion to risk. Preferring to employ him as an auxiliary defender rather than fielding a more attack minded player. I doubt any other side in the league plays with fewer players who are primarilyy focus on offense. The lack of options and movement that this creates contributes significantly to the below average level of ball retention.

Fans will remember that West Ham and Southampton were promoted from the Championship together in 2011/12. In the twenty league matches played since, West Ham have won ten, Southampton five, and there have been five draws – four of them goalless affairs at St Marys. The Saints did, however, run out comfortable winners when the teams last met in the fifth round of the 2021/22 FA Cup.

The current Southampton side is full of busy players but they are short of true quality, aside from the dead ball expertise of Ward-Prowse. That said, I am not as confident as others that the game presents something of a ‘gimme’ for the Hammers. Much will depend on two factors: one, whether the Hammers can find enough fit central defenders to start the game following injuries sustained in midweek; and two, whether they can shake off the characteristic slow start that has tended to follow previous midweek European outings.

I would love to predict a third league win on the bounce. One day we may get to see a West Ham romp inspired by the burgeoning skills of Gianluca Scamacca and Lucas Paqueta. It could be today but equally I can easily see the spoils being shared. COYI!

Davey’s On A Roll Again – Hammers Looking For Six Wins From Last Seven In Return Anderlecht Showdown

An improved run of results without ever convincing has raised the mood at West Ham. Tonight they get a chance to seal the fate of Group B.

It never ceases to amaze me how much of a pigs-ear the Professional Game Match Officials Limited (PGMOL) have made of implementing VAR. That’s assuming the intention was to eliminate clear and obvious errors, rather than to generate ‘talking points’ for the vast and growing ranks of the punditocracy.

The beauty of football is its simplicity. What should have been the intelligent use of technology to quickly check against major refereeing bloopers, has instead created a whole new set of interpretations that were never a problem in the first place. It has introduced spurious levels of accuracy, offences that are treated differently depending where on the pitch they occured, and an imaginary concept of phases of play. One step forward and several steps backwards is the way I see it. Like permitting the use of self-driving cars on the roads and then insisting the man walking in front with a red flag must be re-introduced at the same time.

Neither of the goals by Gianluca Scamacca or Michail Antonio would have raised an eyebrow in pre VAR days. Balls brushing against the hand as it bounces, or as the result of a challenge is surely not in the spirit of a handball offence. The Scamacca VAR review was the perfect representation of all that is wrong with its implementation. How can it take 2 or 3 minutes to identify whether a clear and obvious error has beem amde? What on earth were they doing? Checking offside, handball, his credit rating and whether he had paid his TV licence? Still, it was smart work by Antonio to play a one-two off the keeper for his goal in order to start a new phase of play – just in case!

And as for the penalty, it was pure stupidity on the part of the Fulham player. His only intention was to block Craig Dawson’s path regardless of where and in which direction the ball was travelling. A clear infringement, and especially so as he had been warned at least twice immediately beforehand. It was a no-brainer penalty decision (apart from in Marco Silva’s head) and every commentary, every minute by minute report was unanimous in its award.

Apart from yet another worryingly slow start, during which Fulham scored and hit the bar, West Ham were by far the more threatening side on Sunday. But we still need a more adventurous attitude if the evolving talents and understanding of Scamacca and Lucas Paqueta are to be utilised to their full extent. While David Moyes will be thrilled that the Hammers have won five of the last six (in all competitions) he must be aware that they have yet to be fully convincing in any game.

Tonight, West Ham have a first opportunity to effectively seal qualification from Group B as champions. A fourth win from four against the second-best team in the group should build an unassailable lead. But it is still a game that needs to be won. Last weeks encounter was a close fought affair despite the West Ham goal coming under next to no pressure until the late Silva header, and the marvelous Areola save.

Just like West Ham, Anderlecht came from a goal down to win 3-1 in the league at the weekend, moving them up to ninth in the Belgian league. It will be interesting to what approach they take to today’s game, where avoiding defeat may best suit their long term qualification interests. If so, the Hammers may have a job on their hands to break them down and maintain their 100% record.

We can expect Moyes to start with a very similar lineup to that used in the previous Anderlecht game, subject to availability. There is some doubt over Antonio, who has been suffering with a cold, and questions as to whether Jarrod Bowen needs to take a rest. Antonio’s absence would necessitate another start for Scamacca, and another opportunity to extend his impressive Europa scoring record. But there is no obvious replacement for Bowen unless Maxwell Cornet is fit to play. The other option being the ever-willing Pablo Fornals moving across to the right hand side – demonstrating that he is too slow to catch Antonio’s cold on either flank.

Although I don’t have any ideological dislike of playing with a back three, our full-backs aren’t really up to playing the advanced wing-back role. Vladimir Coufal and Aaron Cresswell lack the pace and Emerson is too fond of cutting inside to be effective in providing the team’s width. It certainly isn’t good enough against Premier League opposition but may be adequate enough tonight.

Putting the group to bed with two games to spare would be a huge benefit given the busy match schedule in the coming weeks. I’m hoping that we plan to go all out for the win – or as all out as the manager’s caution allows. A 2-0 West Ham win for me. COYI!

There’s Only One F In Stratford: West Ham Entertain The Cottagers At The London Stadium

Two wins, two clean sheets and the luxury of selection dilemmas might finally put a smile on David Moyes face

A week is a long time in football. Two wins and two clean sheets in five days have transformed David Moyes demeanour and medium term outlook beyond his wildest expectations. Gone was the startled Scooby Doo look of panic that was a constant during his time at Sunderland, to be replaced by the smug satisfaction of a man who had just found a can of Irn-Bru in the mini-bar of his Brussels hotel room.

Having made nine changes to his side for the midweek game at Anderlecht, the Hammers put in a professional performance to take control of the game, even if needed the introduction of Declan Rice, Gianluca Scamacca and Lucas Paqueta to finally seal the victory. An impressive trinity to be able to summon from the bench.

I’m already viewing the title of Group B champions as a done deal, and have started to look at which teams could potentially block the path to the final. Of those in the Conference itself, Villareal pose the greatest threat, followed by Koln and Fiorentina, though neither have made impressive starts in their respective groups. More of a problem are the clubs dropping down from the Europa League. Clearly, we wouldn’t want to face either of the English clubs – given previous inferiority complexes shown against Arsenal and Manchester United – and thankfully neither are likely to end up eliminated. Of the sides currently sitting third in their Europa groups, Roma and Lazio would be the greatest worries and best avoided. I’m all in favour of the clearest and easiest route possible to the final in Prague.

Standing in the way on back-to-back West Ham Premier League wins this weekend are newly promoted Fulham. The Cottagers have made a decent start back in the top flight and currently sit in ninth place with eleven points – having recorded wins at home to Brentford and Brighton and away at Forest. But a home victory today would lift the Hammers to within a single point of the visitors.

The Fulham gig has seen the resurrection of Portuguese manager, Marco Silva. Once the rising star among young Premier League coaches, Silva floundered, as many have before and since, in the graveyard of managerial ambitions that is Goodison Park. Eyebrows were raised when he replaced Scott Parker at Craven Cottage, but a barnstorming run to last season’s Championship title has represented a remarkable rebound in his stock.

A large part of Fulham’s resurgence has been to contribution and goals of Mitrovic. This time around he has offered far more than the typical blunt instrument impact of previous campaigns. Fortunately for West Ham, the Serb is a highly probable non-starter today.

The visitors were soundly beaten by Newcastle at Craven Cottage last time out when the early dismissal of Chalobah did little to help their cause. Chalobah’s ensuing suspension may herald an interesting return of Issa Diop to the London Stadium.

Moyes has a handful of selection dilemmas for the game which will test his loyalty to the established order. Has Alphonse Areola finally earned the inevitable upgrade to number one, Number One status? Who gets the nod between Emerson and Aaron Cresswell for the problematic left-back slot? Has Flynn Downes done enough to show he can be a Premier League starter in preference to Tomas Soucek?

I can’t see Moyes leaving out either Lukasz Fabianski or Soucek. Both had decent enough games last weekend against Wolves meaning the midweek heroics of Areola and Downes will likley go unrewarded. Fabianski will need either injury or serious howlers to lose his place.

It is ridiculous that Downes has just one minute (and no touches) of Premier League football to his name – in the season opener against Manchester City. The value of committed, no-nonsense players like Downes and Craig Dawson who make a real nuisance of themselves is hugley under-rated. If Downes doesn’t get a start he must be given at least twenty minutes or so to demonstrate he can cut it at this level.

It’s a toss-up for me at left back as I’ve yet to be convinced by Emerson’s defensive prowess. The problem with Cresswell’s rapidly waning powers, however, is that his presence almost guarantees the inclusion of the under-performing Pablo Fornals to baby-sit as a supplementary full-back. It’s the structural problem with the way that Moyes sets up in that our wide attacking players are given way too much defensive responsibility (well beyond the need to track back in response to an emerging threat). The consequuence is that out-ball options once possession is regained are severely limited.

Far better if the more advanced players are deployed further up the pitch to launch offensive actions and ensure the main striker does not get isolated. It was once said that it requires surgery to get a joke into a Scotsman’s head. Possibly harsh, but a similar procedure might be necessary if Moyes is to be persuaded that Scamacca and Michail Antonio can prosper together in the same side.

Scamacca is now the clear and obvious first choice frontman. He has demonstrated a predatory nose for goal and there are signs of promising understandings developing with both Jarrod Bowen and Paqueta. But Antonio still has much to offer – he is our leading all-time Premier League scorer after all. But as a striker, he gravitates towards the wings too much anyway, so why not play him there in a reprise of his earlier days at the club?

West Ham can boast an excellent record against Fulham over the years and in recent history with the Hammers having won three and drawn one of the last four meetings. Even so, both games in the 2020/21 Fulham relegation season were close run things and but for Lookman’s comical last minute penalty would have ended all square.

The absence of Mitrovic would be a huge blow to the visitors. Despite their promising start to the season they still have one of the worst defensive records in the divion. But West Ham’s profligacy in front of goal must improve if they are to advantage. A 2-0 win for the home side. COYI!