Author: Geoff Hopkins

West Ham Log 2024: It’s Football Dave But Not As We Know It, Moyes Out!

Do we really need another two years of dour Dave’s drab and dreary caution? Does anyone enjoy watching West Ham play these days? How much longer can the manager cling on?

It’s a question that’s been asked before but is there anyone left who genuinely looks forward to watching West Ham play right now? Sure, there may be those who follow the results from a distance and take quiet satisfaction of seeing the team sitting sixth in the standings and having reached the last 16 of the Europa League. But does any fan who takes the time to watch games closely believe what they see is good value. That a game plan built on caution and attrition is worthy of the beautiful game. Does anyone ever say to their mates “Going to the game? I never get tired of watching West Ham’s resilience”?

David Moyes has been at West Ham for just over four years now. After a slow start, he hit a purple patch with a sixth place finish in his first full season. The swift counter-attacking football took opponents by surprise and, for a while, was exciting to watch. While the form carried over into the first half of the following season, West Ham had become a known quantity by now. Opponents worked that a high press cancelled out the counterattacking threat and without a tactical plan B, Moyes approach became increasingly cautious.

Fans desperate to see a fresh face and fresh ideas in the London Stadium technical area are routinely accused by the pundit community of being deluded or entitled. “Careful what you wish for” is the stock response. West Ham supporters should be grateful they are not in a relegation battle. That showing greater ambition would without question replace grim one goal victories with assured 4-3 defeats. Media outlets likewise are loathe to be critical of the manager, fearing losing access for their next big story. Even so, some have started to openly admit that watching West Ham is not easy on the eye – although preferring to describe the style as pragmatic, rather than boring. The well-worn phrase that football is a results business misses the point that it is also meant to entertain.

The elephant in the dressing room is, of course, the Europa Conference league win. After 43 trophy-less years it was amazing to experience the club winning something again. For many supporters it would have been a first ever taste of success. But in the cold light of day we cannot ignore the relative strength of the competition that we were in. The scenes in Prague at the end of the night and in east London the following day demonstrated how much it meant to the Hammer’s faithful. But Moyes can’t dine out on that result forever in the face of growing fan unrest. Surely, the Board are aware of that.

This season has been a weird one in many respects. It almost came as a surprise to find us sitting in sixth place at the turn of the year, so unremarkable were our performances. There have been several notable results – winning away at Brighton, Tottenham and Arsenal were all unexpected– that owed much to dogged defensive resistance. But in very few of the ten league wins to date have West Ham been a dominant force. They say that a good team needs to know how to win ugly, but it shouldn’t be the default model.

The Hammers remain without a win in 2024. Having been knocked out of the FA Cup by Championship opposition, they have drawn each of their three Premier League games. They were outplayed by both Brighton and Bournemouth at the London Stadium and despite being rightly aggrieved at the poor refereeing in Sheffield, did not deserve to come away with more than a point on the balance of play. With games against Manchester United and Arsenal on the horizon, the chances of extending the stay in the sunlit uplands of the top six may very well be limited.

There are parallels between this season and 2021/22 where the team were also handily placed to push on as the January  transfer window opened. Just as the club failed to act then, little was achieved this time around either, aside from the loan signing of Kalvin Phillips. Even more unexpectedly, a squad which was woefully thin anyway was allowed to become a net three lighter following the belated departures of Said Benrahma and Pable Fornals. Both players clearly went backwards during their time at West Ham – did they become worse players or simply get disillusioned – but have still been among the most used substitutes from the bench this term. Is Moyes now going to turn to youth or just make even fewer in-game changes?

The team selection for the Bournemouth game was bizarre to say the least. The decision to select all his favourites even if it meant playing them out of position must have seemed a good idea in the manager’s head. Would none of his assistants dare challenge him on the madness of putting JWP on the left wing and pushing Tomas Soucek forward as a Number 10? That Kalvin Phillips might be a tad ring rusty came as no surprise to the average fan but was apparently beyond an experienced manager with a thousand plus games under his belt. In fairness the real culprit for the Bournemouth goal was Kurt Zouma but digging out Phillips made for a better headline.

Sunday sees Moyes take his Hammers side to Old Trafford to face an erratic Manchester United side. The Red Devils victory in their topsy-turvy midweek encounter with Wolves moved them to within a point of West Ham. Moyes has never won as a manager at Old Trafford in 17 attempts and Carlos Tevez was the last Hammer to score a league winner there in 2007.

It is not difficult to predict that we will see a backs to the wall low West Ham block which will be described as a defensive masterclass if we win, but as tame surrender if we lose. Definitely less than 30% possession and fewer that ten touches in the opposition box – mostly headers.

I can see Moyes dropping Phillips to the bench for this one, allowing Soucek to drop back and Danny Ings to reprise his Bramall Lane role behind Jarrod Bowen. The most probable outcome is a comfortable home win unless further heroics from Alphonse Areola and Mohammed Kudus earn a point as they did on Thursday. It could well be the start of a Hammers slide down the table and its not difficult to imagine being overtaken by Manchester United, Newcastle, Brighton, and Chelsea before the season is out. It really is time for a change. COYI!

West Ham Versus Bournemouth Preview: Thursdays, Transfers and Takings

It’s Thursday night and so it must be time for a West Ham game. Will events on the pitch be as exciting as the live feed from the transfer window?. Or will both end in disappointment?

Once again, the schedulers have seen fit to shunt the Hammer’s forthcoming Premier league fixtures to the graveyard Thursday/ Sunday slots. As if we don’t already have enough of that during the weeks of European competition. It is a consequence, perhaps, of West Ham not being the easiest of watches under the current pragmatic regime.

Still David Moyes team continue to hold on to sixth spot in the standings and would have been even handier placed had it not been for the scandalous antics of the Stockley Park VARmin ten days or so ago. They must have already shut down their monitors to have missed the late penalty area assault on Jarrod Bowen in the final seconds.

Today’s game is also scheduled to coincide with the ceremonial ‘slamming shut’ of the transfer window – just as it had in the summer when West Ham were featured in the Friday night game at Luton. Why interrupt the evening’s nail-biting excitement by playing a football match?

As usual the January window is proving to be a triumph of hope over expectation. I had mentioned previously that precious little happens in this window, especially at West Ham. It’s almost as if all those reports of players being linked, bids being made, and talks being held are made up. Despite all the evidence, we still like to imagine something will happen.

As things stand the first team squad is one man down on its pre-window strength if persistent rumours that Said Benrahma and Pablo Fornals might join the exodus then the bones will be even barer. New recruits are badly needed but time is rapidly running low – short-term, squad filling panic buys are not what is wanted. A whole month has passed to make a move, yet here we are scrambling around looking to grab a bargain in the final minutes.

The lack of activity has focused attention once again on the presumed mismatch of priorities between manager David Moyes, recruitment guru Tim Steidten and bean counter David Sullivan. Cheap, young, talented footballers with extensive Premier League experience appear to be in short supply for some reason. It must be a frustrating environment for Steidten who had been employed on the strength of the magic he had performed at Bayer Leverkusen – but at a club that lacks the courage of its convictions. It now appears that Liverpool are sniffing around for his services and who could blame him if he jumped onboard the Mersey ship? I doubt we need worry so much about Moyes being headhunted in light of the Liverpool and Barcelona jobs about to become vacant?

The annual Deloitte Football Money League was published recently and emphasised how big the financial gap is between the also-rans (like West Ham) and the six rich clubs of English football. The standings, based on annual revenues, show Real Madrid as the world’s richest club with Manchester City just behind. A total of eight Premier League clubs are in the top twenty with West Ham slipping down to 18th after a poor league season in 2022/23.

The following table shows the breakdown between Matchday, Broadcasting (including prize money) and Commercial revenues for each club in the top 20, plus revenue totals for the other English clubs ranked between 21 and 30. All the figures reported are in Euros.

What immediately stands out – apart from the size of the gap – is how poor West Ham’s matchday and commercial receipts are in comparison with the big clubs. How and why do Tottenham earn three times the matchday income and five times the commercial income compared to the Hammers. And, of course, those revenues directly influence the size of recruitment and salary budgets. The big stadium bounce has not enriched the club’s coffers anything like imagined and, in relative terms, we are not far ahead of the clubs ranked just below.

Turning to tonight’s game, West Ham face a Bournemouth side much improved from when the two teams met on the opening day of the season. It had taken time for Andoni Iraola to mould the team in his image, but they had hit a rich vein of form before falling to consecutive league defeats against Tottenham and Liverpool. The decision to replace Gary O’Neil with Iraola was controversial but appears to have improved both Bournemouth and Wolves. While the Cherries rely heavily on the rejuvenated Solanke for goals, they have looked a very capable side  going forward, although less certain at the back. Semenyo, Tavernier, and Scott will all carry a threat to a rearguard easily unsettled by pace.

Moyes has remained tight-lipped on his own selection options and there are ongoing fitness concerns over Edson Alvarez and Lucas Paqueta. Mohammed Kudus has returned following Ghana’s early exit from AFCON and surely must be ready to start. New arrival Kalvin Phillips is available but with little game time under his belt for the past two season is unlikely to last 90 minutes of competitive football. Ordinarily, his situation would mean several weeks on the bench, but all indications are that this is a Moyes signing who will go straight into the starting eleven. Welcome and good luck, Kalvin.

My hope is that we will eventually see Phillips and Alvarez as a double defensive midfield pivot releasing JWP for more offensive duties behind a front three of Paqueta, Kudus and Jarrod Bowen. It would be an exciting prospect if allowed to flourish. The stumbling block is whether Moyes is prepared to relegate long-term favourite Tomas Soucek to extended bench duty. It would be no surprise if the manager fudged this decision today by allowing Alavarez extra recovery time.

Assuming Paqueta is not yet ready to return then it will be another outing for Danny Ings following his lively performance at Bramall Lane. The one enforced changed will be Ben Johnson replacing the suspended Vladimir Coufal.

A win tonight will put daylight between ourselves and the collection of teams below, but whatever happens the chances are we will remain sixth until the weekend. I don’t have a high degree of confidence its a position that canbe maintained with the current squad strength, but while there’s hope let’s cling to it.

On the opening day of the season West Ham failed to press home their early advantage against Bournemouth and in typical Moyesball style offered the opposition a route back into the game. All it needed was a lucky deflection and two points were dropped. Nothing suggests the underlying approach to games has changed much since then. So a narrow West Ham one goal victory is probably the best a fan can get. COYI!   

Can West Ham End A Dry January By Stealing The Points In Sheffield?

Injuries, absences, cup exits, and the perennial transfer dithering have produced an inauspicious start to 2024 for the Hammers. Is their visit to basement dwellers Sheffield United a chance to get the show back on the road?

To paraphrase the Lloyd Bridges character in the Airplane movie: “it looks like I picked the wrong month to quit drinking.” The good intentions of keeping off the booze in January being thoroughly tested by lethargic performances on the pitch and (so far) by the lack of activity in the transfer window. With winter breaks and cup exits, today’s visit to Sheffield is a last chance saloon for David Moyes to sidestep the worst manager of the month award.

As Richard described so eloquently in these columns yesterday, the cup exit to Bristol City wouldn’t have come as a great surprise to seasoned supporters of a club that has cornered the banana skin market for many years. The real damage for this year’s ignominy was done when sitting back to defend the early goal advantage in the original tie. What the replay confirmed (as if it needed confirming) was how thin the squad is in quality, how the team lacks leadership on the pitch, and how clueless Moyes is with his use of substitutions.

It is an unusual situation we find ourselves in at West Ham. Sitting an impressive sixth in the league and in the last sixteen of a European competition but riddled with discontent on style of play and entertainment value. Although ‘outsiders’ might be understandably baffled by the reaction of fans, their ‘careful what you wish for’ warnings mistakenly suggest it is a binary choice. That the only options for West Ham are the limited crumbs of success that dour, backs-to-the-wall, unimaginative Moyesball can deliver, or the inevitable relegation battles that would follow a move to a more progressive, open, and expansive approach to the game. There is plenty of ground in between if the club gets to grips with its youth development and scouting strategies.

As ever, we are seduced by the notion that solutions to current problems might be at hand from the winter transfer window – even though experience tells us that little business is ever done in January. That doesn’t prevent the rumour mills, live blogs, and clickbait sites going into overdrive on potential links, talks, deals, and swaps. Perhaps this year will be different and we will be pleasantly surprised for once. With Thilo Kehrer already gone and exits predicted for Said Benrahma, Ben Johnson, and others then the next ten days may well be busier than usual. The suggestion from Moyes that West Ham need to sell before they can buy was an unnecessary message to put out. It only encourages the brinkmanship and delays that so often lead to deals collapsing in the final hours of the window. The seat of the pants approach has rarely worked in the past, so why not get business done early for a change?

We are none the wiser as to what the club’s transfer priorities might be this month. There is no chance that each of the many squad shortfalls can be addressed in a single window. If the plan is to strengthen the starting eleven rather than the squad then an upgrade on Tomas Soucek would be my personal starting point. When Soucek is not scoring, he becomes a passenger whose control and passing are well below Premier League standards. In that respect, a loan move for Kalvin Phillips makes a lot of sense. But Phillips will want a guarantee of starts in advance of the Euros. Will Moyes give him those assurances?

In defence, there are surely growing concerns over the long-term fitness of Kurt Zouma. His mobility seemingly deteriorates on a weekly basis. The rearguard is not built for speed in any case which is a problem for any manager preferring to play a higher defensive line. But I don’t see any centre-back changes for now unless Nayef Aguerd leaves for Saudi Arabia once his AFCON duties are over. Should Johnson – who is out of contract in the summer – depart then cover at full-back would be seriously compromised.

The forward positions continue to be an enigma. The trident of Jarrod Bowen, Lucas Paqueta, and Mohammed Kudus has been the standout feature of the Hammer’s season to date. Clearly better backup options than Michail Antonio and Danny Ings are required but is a new Moyes-style target man exactly what is needed right now? How would Bowen and Kudus be accommodated in that scenario? In fact, it is interesting to speculate how things might have developed had Antonio not picked up a long term injury. Spending big money on a player like Broja from Chelsea would be a big mistake in my view. The ideal would be unearthing a Tim Steidten pearl or, failing that, giving a proper opportunity for Callum Marshall to stake a claim with regular bench appearances.

The apparent pursuit of Wilfried Gnonto is an interesting development. I do have a phobia about speedy wingers who can do little else other than running fast but maybe there is much more to his game – I haven’t seen him enough to judge. He would certainly be an upgrade on Benrahma although as a principle we should be looking to pick up exceptional players, not simply finding someone who is marginally better than what we have already got.

Games against Sheffield United have taken on a pantomime quality ever since the Tevez affair, and no doubt there will be plenty of booing and hissing at Bramall Lane this afternoon. Even at this stage of the season, the Blades look to need snookers to avoid relegation. Their most realistic escape route might be if three clubs above them get hit with massive points deductions as a punishment for financial irregularities. They have yet to see a new manager bounce from the return of Chris Wilder but are facing traditionally generous opponents today as they seek to finally put their points tally into double figures. One-time alleged Hammer’s striker target Brereton Diaz will be making his Premier League debut for the hosts. Always a worry!

West Ham have a good recent record in this fixture having won the last three encounters without conceding – including a dreary 2-0 win at the London Stadium in September. Apparently, if the Hammers keep a clean sheet today it will make it five in a row setting a new record for the club in the Premier League era – an achievement that Moyes would surely love to add to his CV.

Recoveries from injury will be key if West Ham are to return from the steel city with a point or three. The team that got intimidated and outmuscled in Bristol would surely meet the same fate against a determined Sheffield side. Our hopes, therefore, are pinned on at least some of Bowen, Edson Alvarez and even Pablo Fornals being fit and ready to start. Benrahma is, of course, suspended but reading the names Ings and Cornet on the team sheet will see me reaching for the bottle of wine which was being saved to celebrate the closing of the transfer window. COYI!

Dig Out The Claret Ribbons: The Road To Wembley Starts Today As West Ham Entertain Bristol City

It’s the thrill and tradition of the FA Cup despite the third round matches being stretched over five days. Will it be West Ham or Bristol City who grab the number 6 ball in Monday’s 4th round draw.

Did you know that every time West Ham have won the FA Cup they had to beat a team with a bird nickname along the way. It was the Robins of Swindon in 1964 and 1975 and the Swans of Swansea in 1980. And you could also throw in the Throstles if you were inclined to resurrect the West Bromwich Albion’s traditional pre-Baggies monicker. In fact, both abortive final appearances had the same avian connection. The Hammers seeing off the Seagulls in 1923 and the Canaries in 2006. A 3rd round draw against the Robins of Bristol City is therefore conclusive proof that the famous trophy is destined to be festooned with claret and blue ribbons come the end of May.

The road to Wembley is just 16 miles by car from the London Stadium – or just five football matches, excluding replays. But it has been a road less travelled for West Ham since they last lifted the trophy in 1980. In the interim, they have bowed out 12 times in both the 3rd and 4th rounds, 9 times in the 5th round, 8 in the 6th, and lost once in each of the semi-final and final. Going all the way typically involves decent performances, a touch of good fortune, and a favourable draw. Here’s hoping the big six can knock each other out before the big day.

Today will be the third time West Ham and Bristol City have met in the FA Cup. On both prior occasions, it was Hammers who progressed into the draw for the next round. In 1969, goals from Geoff Hurst and Martin Peters (2) helped West Ham to a 3-2 win in a 3rd round tie – a campaign that was later ended by a 3-0 5th round drubbing on a wet Wednesday night in February by 3rd division Mansfield. More recently, Sam Allardyce’s Hammers managed to scrape a fortunate 1-0 win in a 2105 4th round tie courtesy of a goal from substitute Diafra Sakho, who had controversially returned from AFCON due to a back injury.

For two seasons between 1977 and 1978, the two teams competed together in the old First Division (the top tier at the time) where Bristol City won two and lost one from four prior to the Hammers relegation. The Robins were themselves relegated in 1980 and have yet to return to the top flight. This season they are occupying mid-table obscurity in the Championship.

A surprising number of players have turned out for both clubs over the years including George Parris, Ryan Fredericks, Paul Allen, Marlon Harewood, Nicky Maynard, Bobby Gould and Leroy Rosenior. To add to the familiarity, West Ham manager David Moyes was a Bristol City player between 1985 and 1987 while Robin’s boss Liam Manning managed West Ham’s Under 21s from 2015 to 2019.

Manning replaced Nigel Pearson as Bristol City manager as recently as November 2023, having previously worked at MK Dons and Oxford United. According to Wikipedia, his management style is based on a high press and high possession, which might suggest what we are in for today. It’s a little worrying that the weekend has yet to see any of the usual big cup shocks before the masters of the banana skin take the field.

With no game for two weeks, we can expect Moyes to put out a strong side today, subject to the latest injury situation. The performance against Brighton illustrated how poor the team are in possession when the creativity of Lucas Paqueta and Mohammed Kudus is missing. With Kudus away at AFCON it could be a really difficult watch again if Paqman is not available to fight the Robins. Perhaps Moyes will finally give outings to the elusive Maxwell Cornet, Conor Coventry or Ben Johnson – maybe one or two from the Under 21’s – but it is more likely to the same tired old guard of Danny Ings, Pablo Fornals, and Said Benrahma who struggle to step up as usual?

Anyway, let’s be positive. Our name could well be on the cup once the missing stars return and the January cavalry signings arrive. West Ham to win 1-0 with 39% possession. COYI!

Wishing You All A Happy New Transfer Window

Hooray! The transfer window is open again. The January window is typically very quiet at West Ham but does it make sense to rely on the same old bare bones when there are trophies to be won?

Never mind all that nonsense about peace, health and prosperity, it is the springing open of the transfer window that ushers in 2024 with the greatest anticipation. Will the Hammers be up to much over the coming month? Probably not, but here we take a moment to contemplate West Ham’s transfer conundrums past and present.

The Problem With The Squad Is Depth

According to the Transfer Market website West Ham have the 10th most valuable squad in the Premier League – coming in at an estimated EUR 462 million. In addition to the traditional ‘big’ six clubs, the Hammers also fall behind the Newcastle, Aston Villa, and Brighton squads who are valued at EUR 640 million, EUR 638 million, and EUR 488 million respectively. The website bases its market value estimates on age, performance, contract length, position, international caps, and potential. Although some of that may be subjective, it does provide a reasonable indication as to the relative strength of squads we are in immediate competition with.

Considering the best elevens of the four clubs, there is not much between them. But as you drill down, the lack of depth in the West Ham squad becomes apparent. David Moyes has challenged the squad players to step up to fill in for the AFCON absentees, but based on recent performances the cupboard has looked incredibly bare. The reserve players – Ings, Benrahma, Fornals, Kehrer, Cresswell, Johnson – have either not been good enough, or have had insufficient game time, to provide effective backup when called upon. It is fortunate – either through good luck or sensible training methods – that the Hammers have enjoyed a mostly injury free season compared to other sides. Ironically, it was the one long term injury (to Michail Antonio) which forced the manager into the attacking positional changes that have proved the bright spot to the first half of the season.

Transfer Spend and Payroll

Attention during transfer windows is typically focused on net expenditure – transfer fee incomings minus outgoings – but tends to gloss over player salaries which actually makes up a larger slice of the pie. Since the start of the 2012/13 season, West Ham have spent £855 million on transfers and received £390 million from player sales – a net spend of £465 million. During the same period, player salaries have totalled approximately £800 million.

Over the last 13 transfer windows (since the start of the 2017/18 season) the net spend at West Ham has been £342 million which is higher than at Villa (£329 million) and Brighton (- £19 million) but below that of Newcastle (£463 million) whose spending has been inflated over the past four windows by deep Saudi pockets. The evidence of spending against squad value would suggest that West Ham have failed to spend their money wisely.

A comparison of current annual player payrolls has West Ham at £94 million compared to £117 million at Villa, £84 million at Newcastle, and £61 million at Brighton. It should also be noted that the West Ham squad has the highest average age across the four clubs – Fulham are the only older squad in the Premier League.

Transfer Hits And Misses

The West Ham transfer merry-go-round has had its fair share of hits and misses over the years. For services rendered, the modest fees paid for Cresswell, Ogbonna, Antonio, Fabianski, Coufal, and Dawson have each showed a welcome return on investment. Payet and Arnautovic were both exceptional signings who promised much before their claret and blue careers ended in acrimonious circumstances.

Of the players still on the books, the signings of Bowen, Paqueta, Kudus, Ward-Prowse, and Alvarez have either been, or are looking likely to become, great business. We can never know how long any player’s West Ham careers will last but if we have to sell, selling at a handsome profit is to be desired – something that has been a rare occurrence over the years.

The list of transfer flops is long and expensive. In no particular order, my personal list of stinkers – based on huge fees, big wages or generally failing to live up to expectations – are Jarvis, Carroll, Hernandez, Hugill, Anderson, Wilshere, Haller, Ajeti, Vlasic, Cornet and Ings. No transfer is guaranteed to succeed but having finally woken up to need for professional recruitment, lets hope this level of wastefulness is a thing of the past.

Financial Fair Play

We can never be certain whether the FFP card is being used as a reason or an excuse not to spend money. The rules appear to keep changing and, in any case, become obscured by the smoke and mirrors of accounting practices. It was reported that West Ham just about scraped within the UEFA rules for the last financial year. But the position should be eased as result of the summer sale of Declan Rice. While the fee received for Rice should show up in full in this year’s revenue, the transfer fees paid out can be amortised across the length of the incoming players contracts. If my calculations are correct, the charge for last summer’s incoming transfers will be equal to £25 million in the current financial year.

Academy Rewards

The money received from the Rice sale illustrates the value that a club’s academy can deliver. Sadly, the West Ham academy has proved largely unproductive since the golden generation of Ferdinand, Lampard, Cole, Carrick, and Defoe. Since the 2012/13 season, 38 academy graduates have played for the first team at some level, but only six have ever made a Premier League start. Their 242 starts breaks down as Rice 190, Johnson 34, Diagana 6, Ngakia 5, Burke 4, and Oxford 3. It’s a very disappointing record.

Academy teams have performed well over the past few seasons, but success has yet to filter through as first team breakthroughs. While it is tempting to pin the blame on Moyes for his reluctance to trust in youth, the poor return is not new – or unique to West Ham. It has become increasingly difficult for youth players to make it at the top level.

Transfer Priorities

The January window is usually a time for tweaks rather than wholesale changes. It is a time for finding that missing piece of the jigsaw in a bid for glory, or to make desperate buys to stave off relegation. Is there any single signing that could make all the difference to West Ham’s season? A new centre back perhaps to cover for Zouma’s dodgy knees? A free-scoring striker but how would that fit with Bowen and Kudus? Someone more technically gifted than Soucek to partner Alvarez in a double pivot? Where to start?

The Hammers also have an issue with home grown players which limits their ability to offload several of the fringe players who are unlikely to feature regularly in the Premier League. The home grown contingent is at the minimum level and includes Ings, Cresswell, Johnson, Coventry and Anang. If any are sold they would need to be replaced by other British players who are generally priced at a premium..

History shows that West Ham are rarely active in the winter window. Since 2012, only Byram (2016), Snodgrass and Fonte (2017), Hugill (2018), Bowen and Soucek (2020), and Ings (2023) have been January arrivals. Reports of multiple comings and goings should be taken with a pinch of salt. Change is needed but most will surely wait until the summer. But it will not stop a daily dose of transfer speculation for the next four weeks.

WHU, We’re Halfway There: Will West Ham Be Living On A Prayer At The Emirates Tonight

Tonight’s game marks the halfway point in the 2023/24 campaign. A rare West Ham win away to Arsenal would represent a best ever opening half to a Premier League season, but history is not on their side.

Tonight’s game against Arsenal at the Emirates stadium represents the halfway point of the 2023/24 Premier League season. At the end of the game, West Ham will have faced each opponent once, played ten of their 19 games away from home, and accumulated somewhere between 30 and 33 points.

It was quite a surprise after the pre-Christmas round of matches to find the Hammers occupying sixth place in the Premier League standings. The general vibe at the club has been nowhere near as positive as that league position suggests it should be – concerns about style of play and uncertainty over the manager’s future dominating the online discourse.

The results versus performance paradox was encompassed perfectly in last Saturday’s encounter with Manchester United. There is clearly no such thing as a bad victory over the Red Devils, but what a drab and dreary contest it was for well over an hour – and admittedly both sides were responsible for the criminally low standard of entertainment on show. The beautiful simplicity of the two West Ham goals totally incompatible with everything that had gone before them. It has been a long, long time since supporters have been able to enjoy the combined attacking prowess that Jarrod Bowen, Mohammed Kudus, and Lucas Paqueta offer – but there is a sense that the potential is only being partially realised, or unleashed as the headline writers like to say.

In the event that West Ham won tonight, they would achieve a best ever points tally at the halfway stage of a 38-game season, eclipsing the 32 points recorded from 19 games in 2020/21. A draw would give the Hammers an identical record to that achieved in 2021/22. And whatever the outcome, the three best opening half seasons (in terms of points won) will all have been under Moyes management – better than the 29 points earned by Harry Redknapp in 1998/99 and Slaven Bilic in 2015/16.

Winning away at Arsenal is, as we well know, a very rare occurrence for West Ham. In 21 attempts this century, it has only happened three times – the last encounter at Highbury in February 2006, the first at the Emirates in April 2007, and most recently in the opening game of the 2015/16 season. Aside from those three victories there has been one draw and 17 defeats. Each of the last seven games have resulted in a win for the Gunners with an aggregate score of 19-4..

No matter how bad the Hammer’s record is, Moyes managerial record at Arsenal is even less impressive. A total of 15 defeats and no wins from 19 visits, which represents a major element of his 70+ match winless streak from trips to Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea, and Arsenal. I wonder if he has considered taking a different tactical approach yet.

The equivalent fixture last season was a Boxing Day game that Arsenal won comfortably by three goals to one despite falling behind to a first-half Said Benrahma penalty. A win that left the Gunners seven points clear at the top of the table – a lead that they would ultimately squander. A similar result today would again put them top of the pile and they are certainly one of three genuine title contenders along with favourites Manchester City and Liverpool. With that young Declan fella in midfield, they have a more solid, if less spontaneous, look about them – but they may not be clinical enough in front of goal to hold off the perennial late challenge from the champions. Perhaps signing Ivan Toney in January would make for a more even contest.

Apart from the continued absence of Michail Antonio, Moyes should have a fully fit squad to select from. The only probable change from the team that started against Manchester United is the return of Nayef Aguerd in place of former Gunner, Konstantinos Mavropanos. Dinos experienced a shaky opening half-hour to Saturday’s game but settled down to put in a decent second half showing. He will be needed to cover for Aguerd during the imminent AFCON absences.

AFCON is coming at a most unfortunate time for the blossoming Bowen/ Paqueta/ Kudus partnership. In the Ghanaian’s absence, the idea of Bowen moving back out wide and Antonio or Danny Ings in the middle is hardly a mouth-watering prospect. The interplay and interchange between the front three in recent weeks has hinted of a brighter future, but whether all three will still be around after the summer is a worry. It was interesting to see John Heitinga bending Moyes ear in the technical area last Saturday as I imagine he is behind some of the more enterprising glimpses of attacking movement.

There is no question that Moyes will deploy his trademark low block for tonight’s game. He will not want his team to concede five goals in three consecutive matches and will be more inclined to protect the point than going for broke. As Jon Bon Jovi might phrase the pre-match team talk: “We’ve gotta hold on to what we’ve got, It doesn’t make a difference if we make it or not.”

As ever, if West Ham are to have attacking success, it will depend on how quickly players can/ are allowed to get forward in support Bowen. I saw in the week that Paqueta and Kudus are two of the three highest ranked attacking midfielders for tackles and interceptions in the league. While this is highly commendable and illustrative of how hard they work, defensive duties should not come at the expense of attacking intentions. The most productive way for the the Hammers to threaten the Arsenal defence is to target Zinchenko, its weakest link – and to keep Rice occupied in helping him out. Other than that, there is only Odegaard, Saka, and Martinelli to worry about.

It really is about time we got to see a James Ward-Prowse free-kick goal to equal the Beckham record. I’m not sure there has even been a near miss yet, so tonight would be perfect timing. In fact, the overall goals from set pieces record is very mid-table this season and well behind the likes of Liverpool, Tottenham and Arsenal. And despite what the commentators continue to say, Moyes team are no longer a big (tall) side compared to others. Of course, West Ham are massive, just not in height.

With Arsenal the masters of the last gasp winner, it will be vital to main concentration right into the thirteenth minute of added time. Can we complete a north London away day double? The chances are slim but you never know. COYI!

Moyes Ten Word Xmas Humbug: Wishing You A Cautious Christmas And A Dreary New Year!

West Ham and Manchester United meet in the early kick-off at the London Stadium. With both managers under fire, one could surprisingly end the day in the top six of the Premier League.

As 2023 draws to a close, West Ham’s season is increasingly dominated by uncertainty over the future of David Moyes. His contract now down to its final six months, he has the haunted look of a lame duck manager..

I recently read Ray Parlour’s comments where he claimed his own straw poll of West Ham fans suggested a 50/50 split in support for Moyes. I can only imagine that this must divide between those who watch the games and those who follow the results in the newspaper. Can anyone who regularly watches matches really be eager for more of the same? As I have mentioned previously, when Moyes does leave – almost certainly in the summer – the history books will look kindly on his record at the club. But what outsiders and pundits fail to understand is that the fan’s frustration is not about results but the repeated caution, negativity and lack of entertainment witnessed on the pitch. Safety first tactics, rarely dominating games and an inferiority complex that rarely sees his sides able to compete in games against the biggest clubs. Was that 21 trips to Liverpool as a manager without a win now?

The debacle at Anfield rightly left West Ham fans seething; from the moment the teams were announced until the minute the fifth goal hit the back of the net. And the manager’s inane post-match analysis only made matters worse. Let’s be honest, the game was effectively written-off before a ball had been kicked – and in a cup quarter-final, no less. A degree of squad rotation is expected and can be easily justified in the modern game. Resting one or two players here and there to keep things fresh. But to change an entire defence (almost) and leave most of the players capable of making use of limited possession on the bench was madness. Who could have guessed the ball wouldn’t stick in a midfield containing Tomas Soucek, Pablo Fornals, and Said Benrahma? It might have just about worked at home to Lincoln, but it was never going to pass muster away at Anfield? And why no attempt to fix things at half-time when good fortune meant there was still only one goal in it?

It is tempting to dismiss the squad’s second-string players as falling well below the required standard. But there are also many questions in the way resources are managed – and the lack of game time available. The odd five minutes here and there as a late substitute cannot keep players match ready.  When Klopp made his own rotational changes, it was an opportunity for fringe players to do their best and make an impression. With Moyes, it was ritual sacrifice of players who know full well they are not part of the manager’s trusted few.

Defeat at Liverpool followed what was perhaps the Hammers most accomplished league performance of the season – a 3-0 victory against Wolverhampton Wanderers. There were again glimpses of the talent available in the squad, and a more expansive style of football that could be possible in the right setup. Having completely dominated the opening period though, we still had to endure the customary retreat after half-time in the name of game management? It was fortunate that the marginal off-side was chalked off by VAR and served as a timely wake-up call.

As well as making resolutions, attention will also turn shortly to the flinging open of the January transfer window – which runs from 1 January to 1 February. Predictions of West Ham’s planned intentions vary widely and stories of wholesale ins and outs have already been circulating for some weeks It seems unlikely to me that a great deal of business will take place – it rarely does in January – and the situation is complicated in any case by the convoluted FFP rules that UEFA and the Premier League have in place. Thoughts on what the clubs transfer priorities should be also vary – striker, centre back, full-back – so there will be no shortage of wild and fanciful speculation in the weeks ahead. We must also consider that a very thin West Ham squad will be further weakened as a results of AFCON absences from the middle of January..

Recruitment will not be helped by the managerial uncertainty. Does Moyes get to have any say in targets – if so, is that wise? If he doesn’t, will he select them to pay? A lot of faith has to be put in Tim Steidten surfacing with a couple of pearl-diving specials.

Today’s early kick-off features two of the 12 United’s currently playing in England’s top four leagues. How many of the others can you get? Our visitors have the air of a fading star whose best days are a distant memory. Someone who once graced the silver screen but can now only get work in panto at the end of the pier. For such a famous club it was a surprise to discover that all but two of their 20 league titles were under the guidance of just two managers – Busby (5) and Ferguson (13). The exceptions were both prior to the First World War.

Since Ferguson’s departure, six different managers (including one D Moyes) have failed to rouse the sleeping giant from its irritable slumber. With the Red Devils unceremoniously dumped out of Europe a few weeks back, current boss Ten Hag is in the leading pack to become the Premier League’s next managerial casualty.

At the moment, just one point separates the two sides in the current standings. Should either team win all three points, they will leap into the top six, at least until Newcastle play at Luton.

While Manchester United have a lengthy injury list to cope with, the Hammers have a close to full-strength squad to call upon – just Michail Antonio missing plus anyone still suffering from the mystery sickness bug. The only selection question mark for West Ham is at goalkeeper where Alphonse Areola did his best in midweek to hand the jersey back to Lukasz Fabianski. Vladimir Coufal is one booking away from a ban and hopefully he has benefited from anger management therapy since his last league outing against Wolves.

The most ominous thing I read in the build up to today’s game is that ‘Rasmus Hojlund is still searching for his first goal in England’s topflight‘. So, there’s a thought for anyone wondering where to place their two-bob stake money. Looking at other betting options, I was attracted by a odds of 7 or more goals being scored in the game. This could be a lucky one, coming in at 18/1.

Finally, I would just like to wish everyone who has read this far a very merry Christmas. I trust your trees are fully loaded with gifts of gold, frankincense, and myrrchandise from the club shop. COYI!

That list of United’s in full: Cambridge, Carlisle, Colchester, Leeds, Manchester, Newcastle, Oxford, Peterborough, Rotherham, Sheffield, Sutton, West Ham

Another Chance To Break The Anfield Curse: West Ham Battle Liverpool For A Place In The EFL Cup Semi-Final

With a touch of verve, swagger and style returning to the Hammer’s play can they pull of a classic smash and grab at Liverpool tonight? Or will it be yet another case of Merseycide?

It will be a buoyant West Ham who head to Anfield tonight to take on Liverpool in the quarter-finals of the EFL Cup. The prize, a place in the semi-final draw alongside Chelsea, Fulham, and Middlesbrough. The winner of tonight’s tie becoming the highest ranked team remaining in the competition.

There have been a host of unlikely winners in 63 seasons of the Milk, Littlewoods, Rumbelows, Coca-Cola, Worthington, Carling, Capital One, Carabao Cup – but the Hammers have yet to get among them. In previous seasons, the names of Norwich, Birmingham, West Brom, Middlesbrough, QPR, Stoke, Luton, Swindon, and Oxford have all been engraved on the old trophy. But the best West Ham have to show for it is two losing final appearances. The first, a two-legged affair against West Bromwich Albion in 1966; the second, a replay defeat to tonight’s opponents in 1981.

In contrast to the Hammer’s duck, Liverpool have won the competition more times than any other club, running out victorious in nine of the 13 finals they have appeared in. Their most recent victory was in a 2022 penalty shootout against Chelsea in 2022, after the game finished scoreless after extra time.

One record that the two clubs share is the biggest win in EFL Cup history – by ten goals to nil. West Ham thumping Bury in 1983, Liverpool doing likewise to Fulham in 1986. There is no record of The Reds signing any of the Fulham defenders after the match as the Hammers did with Paul Hilton of Bury.

The curse of West Ham visits to Anfield is well documented. An emphatic 3-0 win in 2015, which indirectly led to the demise of Brendan Rodgers and the appointment of Jurgen Klopp, was the first away victory at Anfield for 52 years. But the hoodoo has not been lifted again since. The Hammers now on a run of seven consecutive defeats at Liverpool since a 2-2 draw in Dec 2016.

Tonight is the sixth time that West Ham have faced Liverpool in the EFL Cup. The first and last of those meetings saw the Hammers come out on top with Liverpool winning the three in between. Unsurprisingly, both West Ham wins were recorded at Upton Park – a 2-1 win (Hurst, Robson) in October 1971, and a shock 4-1 victory (Gale, Ince 2, Staunton OG) in November 1988. The Hammers line up that day: McKnight, Potts, Dicks, Gale, Martin, Devonshire, Brady, Kelly, Rosenoir, Dickens, Ince. It was an eventful year at West Ham as they were eventually beaten in semi-final of the EFL Cup by Luton, lost in a sixth round FA Cup replay to Norwich, and ended up being relegated.

It has become compulsory at this time of year to mention that the games are coming thick and fast, although Christmas schedules aren’t as hectic as they once were and European fixtures are taking a breather. Managers must still take a gamble with how they juggle resources. Even if the early rounds or the EFL cup are seen as nuisance it takes on greater significance as thoughts of the Wembley dome come to mind.

Klopp in particular will be in two minds on team selection with a top of the table clash with Arsenal on the weekend horizon, and at a time when the Anfield sickbay is bursting at the seams – Matip, Thiago, Bajcetic, Robertson, Mac Allister, and Jota are all probable absentees. Klopp has plenty of attacking talent to call upon, but they are clearly vulnerable in defence and midfield.

On the other hand, West Ham have only Michail Antonio on the long-term sick list – although a few are close to exhaustion if overnight reports are correct. It is either luck or testament to the club’s training methods that the Hammers have suffered few injury problems of late (makes note to touch wood). A far cry from the time when players only needed to pull their socks up to pull a hamstring.

The issue for Moyes is more about quality – or at least which players he feels he can trust. Playing the same group of players week in and week out doesn’t appear to be a sustainable policy, so he may well be pressured to make changes for tonight’s game. I would be quite happy to see two or three of Thilo Kehrer, Pablo Fornals, Said Benrahma, or Divin Mubama introduced but please no Aaron Cresswell or Danny Ings.

If the Hammers win it would make it a first EFL Cup semi-final for 10 years. Thankfully, Manchester City will not be waiting in the draw this time around. If they should advance, it is a eminently winnable competition. It’s just the record at Anfield that makes it a big ‘if’. But all winning and losing streaks must come to an end eventually so why not tonight when Liverpool’s have one eye fixed on the Premier League table? COYI!

Lifting The Lid On The Moyesball Paradox Of Dreary Football And Europa Success

West Ham regained some dignity with a fine performance against Freiburg in midweek. Now they face Wolves amid continuing speculation over manager David Moyes future.

It was interesting to hear David Moyes pre-match comment that although not personally worried about his current contract situation, he feared it might unsettle the players. Always good to get the excuses in early. His assumption, I guess, is that these highly paid professionals would be distraught at the thought of playing under new management. Moyes added that what he needed to focus on was picking up enough points to keep the Board happy.

Like many supporters I have this ongoing dilemma with Moyesball. It’s an internal conflict of never wanting West Ham to lose any game, but with an (apparently) delusional desire to be entertained in the process. It is the entertainment element that is generally overlooked outside those fans who regularly watch matches. It seems we should be grateful for any small crumbs of success that come our way even if the football is invariably dull and dreary. So, you get the situation where a pundit such as Jeff Stelling berates a West Ham supporter for wanting Moyes replaced, telling him he needs to ‘get a grip on reality’. Maybe the reality is that West Ham should be doing much better given the investment that has been made in the squad. Of course, there is no way that Moyes will lose his job before the end of his contract, but speculation will persist on whether a contract extension is conceivable.

If Moyes should leave in the summer, then the record books will show a respectable legacy from his time at West Ham. By almost all metrics, the 2020/21 season was the Hammer’s best ever in the Premier League. Most points, most wins, best goal difference and providing the sixth-place finish that would kick-start three consecutive seasons of European football. And then there was the success in last season’s Europa Conference that brought the club its first trophy in 43 years. In summary, that is not too shabby and, of course, this season is not yet over.

What the record books have no interest in, though, is the quality or style of football played during that time. And that is where the majority of disgruntled supporters take issue. Games are endured rather than enjoyed and results have rarely been good enough to gloss over that fact. Indeed, it has only been the European adventures that have served as Moyes ‘get out of jail free card’ over the past two seasons as domestic form flatlined.

The success of 2020/21 carried over into the early months of following season and after beating Crystal Palace on New Years Day 2022 the Hammers were handily placed in fifth spot. But then things started to change.  They were no longer a surprise package; opponents knew exactly how they wanted to play and were able to put a stop to the threat of rapid counterattacks. The opportunity to strengthen the squad in January was missed and both performances and results began to fall away. As the opportunity for breakaways receded the tactics lost their shine and simply looked negative.

An analysis of league form over two years since that Palace game, shows West Ham’s record as Played 72, Won 24, Drawn 14, and Lost 34. That’s a measly win percentage of 33% with an unremarkable average of 1.2 points per game. Is there no-one else who could have done better?

Throughout this time, Europe has continued to paper over the cracks. Excellent performances against Sevilla and Lyon and victory over Fiorentina in Prague being the standout moments. It would be wrong to belittle the European experience but equally going over the top about winning group games verges on embarrassing. With the exception of Freiburg, all opposition has come from the continent’s lower ranked leagues – Croatia, Belgium, Austria, Denmark, Rumania, Serbia, and Greece. Any competent (and expensively assembled) Premier League side that took the competition seriously would be expected to come out on top. A team can only beat what’s in front of you but let’s not overegg the achievement. Even in the upcoming knockout round, West Ham should be easily among the favourites to make it through to the last eight.  

All that said, it was a fine professional performance on Thursday to secure top spot in Group A. The Hammers proving that when allowed to, they can play some decent football. The tie wrapped up by two excellent goals from summer signings Mohammed Kudus and Edson Alvarez. I must admit I had pigeon-holed Alvarez as the typical defensive midfield destroyer and was both surprised and impressed by his contribution with the ball. All I had to go on were memories of him spooning long shots well over the bar earlier in the season.

In truth, Freiburg didn’t offer much and allowed West Ham far too much space in which to express themselves. It is maybe indicative of the strength in depth – and the amount of money available – in the Premier League compared to the Bundesliga.

The return to league action todays sees Wolverhampton Wanderers visit the London Stadium. Wolves have stabilised under the management of former Hammer Gary O’Neil and occupy a comfortable mid-table spot, thanks mainly to their impressive home form. The visitors will be without primary dangerman Neto, but Hwang and Cunha have been regularly finding the net. I watched them beat Tottenham a few weeks ago and was impressed by the way Lemina was able to boss the midfield.

Should West Ham beat Wolves today then they will be slightly better off than at the equivalent stage of 2020/21. On the other hand, they would now be below Everton had the Toffees not received a ten point penalty. A late run to qualify for Europe through league position seems unlikely however, especially in light of Moyes belief that he doesn’t need additional striking options. It will be interesting to see if any transfer activity takes place in January as it will undoubtedly be influenced by the manager’s contract position. The success of Kudus and Alvarez will surely have strengthened Tim Steidten’s hand in the leadership of future transfer business.

From Moyes point of view, his best chance of influencing the Board would be to win another trophy and extend the European adventure into a fourth season as a result. In that respect, he may view Wednesday’s league cup tie at Anfield as his most important pre-Christmas challenge. Whether that means resting a few of his favourites today will only be revealed once the teams are announced. We must wait and see.

More than anything I would hope to see more of the movement, space creation and interchange that we witnessed in the second half at Tottenham – and again on Thursday night. And without the lack of defensive discipline on show at Fulham. There are now enough talented players in the squad to break free of the Moyesball shackles, but will it be allowed to happen. COYI!

There’s Only One ‘F’ In Freiburg: Can West Ham Recover From Their Fulham Fiasco

West Ham complete their Europa League group campaign with a title decider against Freiburg. Will they bounce back from Sunday’s humiliation to top the group and head straight to March’s Round of 16?

Well, the euphoria that followed victory at the Tottenham Hotspur stadium didn’t last long, did it? And what a come down it was. We are well used to dull and dreary performances under Moyes, but it is a rare to be on the wrong end of a submissive, overwhelming drubbing like the one handed out by Fulham at Craven Cottage.

There were two mitigating excuses put forward by the manager after the game. One was the stomach bug which had allegedly affected several of the players; the other was a general sense of fatigue from the team’s hectic fixture schedule. Both may have played their part but equally they highlight a lack of depth in the squad and the inadequacies in the way that it is managed. Despite all the investment in playing staff we have barely progressed from the days of Harry’s bare bones.

When the teams were announced on Sunday it was obvious that a defensive midfield pairing of Thomas Soucek and James Ward-Prowse would likely prove vulnerable. Neither is an effective replacement for the stricken Edson Alvarez – just as they hadn’t along the road at Brentford. With Flynn Downes unceremoniously sent out on loan there just isn’t cover for the role protecting the defence. Just as there is little cover in the squad for several other critical roles. It is a sad indictment of the club’s transfer and youth policies.

The two changes Moyes made for the game, bringing in Aaron Cresswell and Pablo Fornals also raised alarm bells. As good a servant as Cresswell has been at West Ham, his best before date for top-flight football expired at least two years ago. And it’s a shame about the likeable Fornals. There simply isn’t anything special enough about his game for him to prosper in the breakneck pace of English football – and, certainly not as left winger. Was he selected to cover for Cresswell? It was said later that Fornals was among those suffering from the sickness bug, so to pick him ahead of Said Benrahma or Maxwell Cornet seems baffling?

While we can have some sympathy for player’s suffering from fatigue, it is one of the responsibilities of management to deploy available resources shrewdly. You will hear ex-pros saying that players prefer to play games rather train but the intensity of games is increasing all the time. And the Moyesball style of play requires more running than most. It is all the more perplexing therefore, that the same players are asked to put in the majority of minutes game after game. Substitutions are few, are usually made late in the day, and are often the same predictable like for like switches.

Is the rest of the squad so full of duds or is it that Moyes only likes or trusts his chosen few. Don’t the fringe players need minutes to build confidence and find their feet? In all league games this season, Divin Mubama has 56 minutes, Thilo Kehrer 21, and Cornet 1. Ben Johnson and Conor Coventry have yet to feature at all. Mubama is also the only academy player to find his way onto the pitch in any game in any competition.

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There was at least some positive news during the week as Manchester United and Newcastle crashed out of this season’s European competition. They will not now be dropping down into the Europa League. Whether AC Milan or Galatasaray represent easier opposition should the Hammers draw them is a matter of opinion. The immediate hurdle for West Ham’s Europa League ambitions is to avoid defeat tonight. If they can, they will top the group and bypass a tricky Qualifying Round in February.

In effect, the Hammers start tonight’s game with a one goal advantage from the away leg in Germany. The dilemma is whether the manager sets out to extend or defend that lead. Past performance suggests he is most likely to opt for the latter.

The away game in Germany was arguably West Ham’s best performance in Europe this year, overcoming a partisan crowd and bumpy pitch to run out as 2-1 winners. Apart from that defeat, Freiburg have won each of their other games in the group, including two storming 5-0 home victories against Topola and Olympiacos. These goalscoring feats are at odds with their Bundesliga form where they have only managed 17 goals in 14 matches – and just 6 in 8 games away from home. Still, they are comfortably mid-table and have enjoyed successive 1-0 away wins at Mainz and Wolfsburg in the last two weeks.

It has been reported that the sickness threat has receded from the Hammer’s dressing room and will allow Moyes to go as close to full strength as he sees fit for the game. He will surely go with his strongest lineup and there are unlikely to be any surprise selections.

My prediction for the game at Fulham was that it would be decided by the odd goal – well five’s an odd number, isn’t it? Regardless of that abject failure, I will predict the same again tonight. In fact, I can see it ending 1-0 – but who to? Whatever approach West Ham adopt at the start of the game, we all know that the final ten minutes (plus added time) will be one long, nail biting, edge-of-the-seat agony. Plus ça change! COYI!