West Ham’s Chances of Survival – The Under the Hammers Supercomputer Predicts

The Under The Hammers Supercomputer, Deep Block, has been called into action to predict what might be necessary in the run-in for West Ham to retain their Premier League status. Geoff’s latest article confirmed that Deep Block has been analysing the thousands of possible permutations and scenarios for the remaining league games. It concluded that the answer to the ultimate question of life, the universe and points needed to guarantee Premier League survival is 42. 

I asked Deep Block to consider the situation again and it ran thousands more permutations and it once again confirmed the belief that 42 points is needed to guarantee survival. It did however concede the Douglas Adams influence on the total needed and when asked if there was any leeway it confirmed that 38 points might be enough and now prefers to give a range of 38-42 points given the unpredictable nature of football. I asked it to consider West Ham’s chances of reaching the lower end of the range and this is what it came up with:

West Ham’s Remaining Premier League Fixtures (2025/26)

West Ham have 10 points from our last 6 games. Here are our final 12 league matches, with a prediction for each based on current form, opponent quality, and recent trends. Of course the current form of our opponents may be different at the time we come to play them:

Date	Opponent	Venue	Prediction & Rationale
21 Feb	Bournemouth	Home	Draw – Bournemouth are in good form, 9th in the table and no team in the league can better their 14 points from their last 6 games, but West Ham’s home advantage could earn a point. This is one of the games where the difference between a loss, a draw and a win could be massive in the final analysis.
28 Feb	Liverpool	Away	Loss – Last season’s champions Liverpool are having a poor season by their standards, 6th in table, but are strong at Anfield; historically a tough fixture for West Ham. They have 8 points from their last 6 games. A point in this game is unlikely but if achieved it would be an added bonus in the fight for survival.
4 Mar	Fulham	Away	Draw – Fulham are inconsistent, 12th in table, with just 2 wins and 4 defeats in their last 6 games; West Ham could grind out a point, but this is one of the six away games where we have the best chances for a win.
14 Mar	Manchester City	Home	Loss – City are title contenders, second in the table and closing on Arsenal; they have 11 points in their last 6 games; West Ham will be big underdogs. We always lose this game and this season’s fixture is likely to have the same result. An unlikely point would be brilliant – Arsenal will be cheering us on.
22 Mar	Aston Villa	Away	Loss – Villa are flying high, currently third this season but only 8 points from last 6 games; a difficult away trip, but a point might just be possible although statistically unlikely.
11 Apr	Wolves	Home	Win – Wolves are struggling, bottom of the league 17 points from safety with no chance of avoiding the drop; a must-win for West Ham and a realistic three points, despite the adverse result and display in the away fixture.
18 Apr	Crystal Palace	Away	Draw – Palace are unpredictable, 13th in the league with just 5 points from their last six games; a point is possible, but like the away game at Fulham this is one of the six away games where we have to hope for a win.
25 Apr	Everton	Home	Win – Everton are in good form, 8th in the table with 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 6 games; West Ham’s home form could be decisive. It won’t be easy but at this stage three points will be critical if all goes to plan.
2 May	Brentford	Away	Draw – Brentford are solid, an unexpected 7th in the current table and good form with 10 points in the last 6 games, but West Ham can take a point if we defend well. We meet in the fifth round of the FA Cup at the London Stadium before this game is played.
9 May	Arsenal	Home	Loss – Arsenal, top of the league, but faltering a little with 9 points from their last 6 games; they are likely to still be in the close title race; it will be tough for West Ham. This is an unlikely game to pick up anything unless Arsenal’s nerves are shredded at this point; they have been known to falter and panic as the season approaches a climax.
17 May	Newcastle United	Away	Loss – Newcastle are inconsistent but generally strong at home; but just 7 points from their last 6 games. West Ham will be underdogs, but at this stage anything from the game could be vital.
24 May	Leeds United	Home	Win – We will know what we need to do at this point if we are still able to survive. Leeds may still be involved but may well be safe by then; West Ham could take advantage if that is the case.

Summary of Points Projection

• Predicted Results: 3 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses
• Estimated Points: 13 points from the final 12 matches

As West Ham currently have 24 points, this projection would see them finish on 37 points—right on the bottom edge of the predicted survival threshold of 38-42 points.

Key Insights

• Crucial Matches: Home games against Wolves, Everton, and Leeds (and possibly Bournemouth despite their current form) are the ‘must-wins’. Points gained in other games will likely decide West Ham’s fate.
• Tough Run-in: Fixtures against 8 teams currently in the top 10 are challenging, and 5 games against top 7 sides Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal, Brentford and Villa especially so. Points from these five are very unlikely, but an odd one or two could be crucial.

Margin for Error: Slim—any slip-ups in crucial games could be fatal. Deep Block highlights the seven most crucial games are those against Bournemouth, Fulham, Wolves, Palace, Everton, Brentford and Leeds. At least 14 points from those will probably be the minimum required unless some unexpected points can be gained from away trips to Liverpool, Newcastle and Villa, and home games against the top two, Arsenal and Manchester City

• Current Record: West Ham have played 26 matches, earning 24 points, which is an average of 0.92 points per match.
• Recent Form: In their last 6 league matches, West Ham have picked up 10 points (3 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats), which is an improved rate of 1.67 points per match.
• Other Supercomputer Projections: Multiple models predict West Ham will finish with 36 points and in 18th place, which would mean relegation.
• Required Rate for Survival: To reach the likely minimum safety threshold of 38 points, West Ham need at least 14 points from their final 12 matches—1.17 points per match. To hit the higher estimate of 42 points, we’d need 18 points or 1.5 points per match.

Fixture Analysis

• West Ham’s remaining 12 fixtures include 8 matches against teams currently in the top half (top 10) of the table, with just 4 fixtures against teams in the bottom 10 (Fulham, Palace, Leeds and Wolves)
• Our recent “upswing” (back-to-back wins before a narrow loss to Chelsea, and then a win against Burnley and draw against Manchester United) suggests we could maintain a realistic chance of survival if form continues. How important could the 20 points dropped from winning positions turn out to be?

Comparison with Other Relegation Teams

Burnley

• Current Points: 18 from 26 matches (0.69 points per match).
• Required Rate: Needs 20 points from 12 matches (1.67 points per match) to reach 38 points—an unlikely jump given their form.
• Projection: Burnley will finish with 28–32 points and be relegated.

Wolverhampton Wanderers

• Current Points: 10 from 27 matches (0.37 points per match).
• Required Rate: Needs 28 points from 11 matches (2.55 points per match) for 38 points—virtually impossible but still mathematically possible.
• Projection: Overwhelming favourites for relegation, predicted to finish bottom.

Nottingham Forest

• Current Points: 27 from 26 matches (1.04 points per match).
• Required Rate: Needs 11 points from 12 matches (0.92 points per match) for 38 points—achievable just if current form (9 points from 6 games) holds.
• Projection: Slightly better survival odds than West Ham, but still at risk.

Tottenham

• Current Points: 29 from 26 matches (1.12 points per match).
• Required Rate: Needs 9 points from 12 matches (0.75 points per match) for 38 points—a very real risk of relegation unless recent slide in form (2 points from 6 games) and instability improves.
• Projection: Slightly better survival odds than West Ham, but still at risk.

Leeds United

• Current Points: 30 from 26 matches (1.15 points per match).
• Required Rate: Needs 8 points from 12 matches (0.67 points per match) for 38 points—favourable position.
• Projection: Most models predict survival, with Leeds finishing just above the drop zone.

Survival Chances: Odds and Supercomputer Predictions

• Relegation Odds: Wolves and Burnley are overwhelming favourites for relegation. West Ham are the next most likely, with odds reflecting their precarious position but also their recent improvement. Tottenham and Forest are the next most likely with the bookmakers.
• Our Supercomputer, Deep Block, Forecasts: West Ham are predicted to finish 18th with 37 points, just below the safety line. Burnley and Wolves are expected to go down, with Nottingham Forest, Tottenham and Leeds narrowly surviving.

Conclusion

• Our survival chances are better than Burnley and Wolves, but slightly worse than Nottingham Forest, Tottenham and Leeds. But taking into account the unpredictability of results it is too close to call at the moment.
• West Ham’s realistic points per match is 1.0–1.2 if recent form continues, but we need to maintain or improve this to survive. Key matches will be decisive. If West Ham can win those, survival is possible, but the margin for error is slim. West Ham will likely need at least 38 points to guarantee Premier League survival this season, but a safer target would be 40–42 points given the competitiveness of the relegation battle. This means we must secure 14–18 points from our final 12 matches. Anything less could leave our fate dependent on other teams’ results.