Tag: #MCIWHU

Miracles, Memories and Missed Bets: Reliving some of West Ham’s greatest moments against Manchester City

West Ham travel to Manchester this weekend to face City, and while I’d love to believe in an upset, history and current form make that hard to imagine. City are unbeaten in their last 19 Premier League games against us, winning 16, and we’ve lost 15 of our last 16 away games there. The only exception was in the final Boleyn season, when we managed a 2-1 win in September 2015, with Victor Moses and Diafra Sakho scoring before De Bruyne pulled one back just before half time. We held on for a famous victory that day.

City don’t show mercy to teams in the relegation zone; it’s been 46 games since they last lost to a team starting the day in the bottom three, and they’ve won the last 14 of those, scoring 43 and conceding just 7. If you’re hoping current form might give us a chance, City have won five of their last six league games to climb into second place, just two points behind Arsenal, while we’ve only managed one win in our last six, though we have picked up three draws.

Rather than dwell on the chances of an upset, I find myself reminiscing about the times we’ve managed to get the better of City. I sometimes like a small wager on the football, and over the years I’ve had my share of luck and disappointment. One memory stands out from 23rd March 1996, when City were struggling near the bottom of the table. I fancied a bet on the correct score and thought the odds on us winning 4-1 at 80-1 were too good to pass up. We had seats in the old West Stand lower, and I remember Ludo saving an early penalty from Kinkladze. Iain Dowie scored with a header for 1-0 at half time, and in the second half he added another from a corner. City pulled one back after a blunder from Ludo, but then Julian Dicks smashed in a screamer from 30 yards for 3-1. I started to believe my bet might come in, and when Dani tucked away a fourth, I was already counting my winnings. But in the dying seconds Niall Quinn scored for City, and the game ended 4-2. So near and yet so far – a terrific game, and a great result, but just a little personal disappointment at the end.

That wasn’t the only time fate played a hand. In the 2000-01 season, on Remembrance Day, I told colleagues about my unlucky 4-2 betting tale and fancied another go at 4-1. The new stand was under construction, and strong winds delayed kick-off. I forgot to place my bet, and as it turned out, despite being a goal down at half time, we won 4-1 again with a last minute Di Canio penalty. This time, missing the bet meant missing out on £165, as the odds had dropped to 33-1.

Among my earliest football memories is the 1959-60 season, when we beat City 4-1 during a run of eight wins in ten games. In 1962-63, we thrashed City 6-1 twice, home and away, and in 1966, shortly after England’s World Cup win, we beat them 4-1 at Maine Road with goals from Ron Boyce, two from Geoff Hurst, and Martin Peters. In 1968, we beat City 2-1 at Upton Park with two classic near-post headers, and perhaps the most famous game came in March 1970 on a mudbath of a pitch at Maine Road. Jimmy Greaves scored twice on his debut, but the highlight was Ron Boyce’s volley from 50 yards, and we won 5-1. In 1982-83, we beat City 4-1 again early in the season, and once more, City were relegated that year.

I haven’t had a correct score bet on a West Ham v Manchester City game since that day in 1996, almost 30 years ago. The odds for a 4-1 West Ham away win this weekend are 200/1, and just to win by any score is around 12/1. I think I’ll keep my fiver in my pocket this time. As much as I’d love to believe in a miracle, history suggests otherwise – but football is nothing if not unpredictable, and memories of those famous wins remind us that anything (however unlikely!) is possible.

West Ham visit the Etihad hoping to rectify an abysmal record in games against Manchester City

I’ll take you back to the 2015-16 season, our last at the Boleyn Ground. It was less than ten years ago. Slaven Bilic was our manager. Our first three away games that season were at Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City. Daunting eh? None of it. We beat all three. Arsenal first 2-0, then Liverpool 3-0, and finally City 2-1. Those were the days!  Those teams went on to finish second, eighth and fourth in the Premier League. We finished seventh, just one point below Southampton who were sixth.

Ironically, we lost two of our first three home games that season at ‘fortress’ Upton Park (how we forget that it wasn’t a fortress!), 2-1 to Leicester City who went on to become 5000-1 shock league champions, and 4-3 to Bournemouth who eventually finished sixteenth. Newcastle, Norwich and Aston Villa were relegated.

Yes, all this happened less than ten years ago. How times change!

We’ve played against City eighteen times since and haven’t managed to beat them again in the league, with just two draws in that time, both at home. We did knock them out of the League Cup in 2021 winning 5-3 on penalties after a 0-0 draw. We’ve never kept a clean sheet against them in our last 24 league fixtures. That happened in 2012, 0-0 at Upton Park. If I’m not mistaken our last clean sheet in an away game at Manchester City came at Maine Road towards the end of our relegation season 2002-3, when with Sir Trevor at the helm for the very first time as our caretaker manager we beat them 1-0 with a Freddie Kanoute goal. Our longest winless run in league games against a specific team is also 18 games – that is against Liverpool between 1983 and 1994. So we will be setting a new record if we fail to win today.

I doubt that many of us saw it coming but Manchester City are having their worst run in many years. They have only won one of their last five home games in all competitions, and their 2-0 win at Leicester last weekend was only their second win in their last fourteen games in all competitions, having drawn three and lost an incredible nine. Nobody thought that this would happen after they began this season as they have the past few.

A worrying statistic is that Haaland hasn’t scored at the Etihad in his last four games there, October being his most recent when he scored the only goal in the game against Southampton. These are the kind of records that worry me – runs that undoubtedly end when West Ham are the opponents. He has a good record against us having scored seven goals in just five games but six of those have been at the London Stadium, including a hat trick when we went down 3-1 in August.

We have hardly been pulling up trees ourselves but we did go on a four game unbeaten run recently which ended when champions-elect Liverpool thrashed us 5-0 in our last game. We didn’t even muster a single shot on target in the game although we came close hitting the woodwork three times. But let’s be fair we were well and truly outclassed, which I fear may happen again today.

Are there any statistics that give us any hope? Nothing too startling I’m afraid although we have managed to score in eight of our nine Premier League away games this season, just failing once when we lost 3-0 at (high flying) Nottingham Forest.  And we’ve only lost one of our last four away league games (at Leicester 3-1 despite having 31 shots). In that time we’ve beaten Newcastle 2-0, drawn 1-1 at Bournemouth, and won 1-0 at Southampton.

The unavailability of Jarrod Bowen after he suffered a fractured foot against Liverpool is a big blow for a side lacking in the attacking department, but these things happen and we are paying the penalty now for failure to recruit in this position in the summer. How quickly can we rectify this in the transfer window that has just opened? I’m not holding my breath!

I’m always hopeful where our team are concerned but I’d be surprised if we got anything out of this game. Despite City’s poor form I’ll bet they are relishing the thought of our visit there today.

As per my recent articles I’ve penned a rhyme to preview the game:

City versus West Ham played in the North-West,
Not our favourite game, we’re never at our best,
They’ve won 14 out of last 15, it’s their happy game,
We always seem to struggle, it always seems the same.

We’ve lost eight games in a row there since year 2015,
They’re always much too good for us, it’s what we’ve always seen.
It’s eighteen winless games now, it’s really quite obscene,
Since that 2-1 away win there, ten years oh so lean!

24 Premier League against them since our last clean sheet,
At least one goal conceded every time we meet,
A similar tale v Sunderland was something we did fix,
We went and beat them 8-0, Sir Geoffrey netted six!

City win their first league game ‘most every calendar year,
Seventeen out of eighteen, a record that we fear,
But we haven’t lost our first game in the recent seven,
If we could take that up to eight we’d be in seventh heaven.

In City’s last two home games they’ve been the first to score,
But neither did they win, they didn’t close the door,
They’ve never failed to win in three when they’ve scored the first,
Perhaps we can shock them and make their bubble burst.

West Ham visit the Etihad Stadium this weekend, but it will take a miraculous turnaround in form and recent history of the fixture to deprive Manchester City of their fourth title in a row.  

It was back in early March as the season approached the three-quarter mark when I tried to assess our chances of finishing in the top seven which would probably give us the opportunity to qualify for Europe next season via our finishing league position. At that time I looked at the teams who were in 6th to 11th, and they were as follows (all had eleven games remaining apart from Chelsea with twelve)

6. Manchester United 44 points (27 games)
7. West Ham 42 points (27)
8. Newcastle 40 points (27)
9. Brighton 39 points (27)
10. Wolves 38 points (27)
11. Chelsea 36 points (26)

I looked at the degree of difficulty in the remaining fixtures for each side based upon the position in the league table of their remaining opponents at that time. The degree of difficulty factor suggested that Newcastle had the easiest run-in with the average positions of opponents as follows: Newcastle 12.2, Manchester United 11.7, Chelsea 10.6, Wolves 10.0, West Ham 9.5, Brighton 9.0.

I then predicted the results of each teams remaining games with a formula based upon fixtures remaining, whether or not the remaining games were home or away, and the results when the sides met earlier in the season. Additional factors included games against the top 5 teams, and games against each other. This gave me a prediction of the final standings:

6. Manchester United – 61 points
7. Newcastle – 57 points
8. West Ham – 57 points
9. Wolves – 55 points
10. Chelsea – 54 points
11. Brighton 51 points

Bookmakers at that time had Manchester United and Newcastle finishing sixth and seventh, Brighton and Chelsea above us in eighth and ninth with West Ham just scraping into the top half in tenth. It was just a bit of fun, and my gut feeling was that we’d be fortunate to do as well as this, I wrote that perhaps tenth was just about right. Football matches are notoriously unpredictable to forecast which stems from various factors like team dynamics, player and overall team form, European and FA Cup games to play, the Thursday / Sunday mix which is often an issue, injuries, and even unpredictable events during a game, as well as all sorts of other miscellaneous factors.

With the final games to play on Sunday, 6th downwards reads as follows:

6. Chelsea – 60 points (H v Bournemouth)
7. Newcastle – 57 points (A v Brentford)
8. Manchester United – 57 points (A v Brighton)
9. West Ham – 52 points (A v Manchester City)
10. Brighton – 48 points (H v Manchester United)
11. Bournemouth – 48 points (A v Chelsea)
12. Crystal Palace – 46 points (H v Aston Villa)
13. Wolves – 46 points (A v Liverpool)

My original thought that 57 points might just be enough for 7th was just a little short of the mark. Chelsea have finished the season strongly, and Newcastle have done well since the turnaround in their game against us, but other contenders such as Manchester United, Wolves, Brighton and ourselves have been inconsistent. After a poor start to the season Bournemouth have improved considerably, and Crystal Palace are second only to Manchester City on recent form with 16 points from their last six games, but their improvement was much too late.

We have 52 points and I will be very happy but massively surprised if we add to that in the final game. We are five points shy of my prediction; those five points were lost in two home games that I was hoping we would win, against Burnley where we drew 2-2 and Fulham where we went down 2-0. Other than that I would have been spot on. We might have even exceeded the 57 point mark had we held on to our 3-1 lead in Newcastle.

But it was not to be and our poor record in the latter half of the season has let us down after entering 2024 in sixth place. We are guaranteed to finish in ninth place (exactly halfway between my forecast and my gut feeling) whatever the outcome this weekend. We are eighth when it comes to scoring goals, but in the bottom four when it comes to conceding them, and therein lies the main problem.

In our articles throughout the season, particularly in the last few months, we have discussed what we believed were the shortcomings of the manager, but this will be his last game and we must now await was lies ahead in the summer and beyond.

Social media articles have already started the Lopetegui in / out debate before he has already been officially announced as the new ‘head coach’! The two sides have been debating whether or not he will lift us off our seats with enterprising, entertaining, attacking football? Will he be far removed from what we have witnessed in the past four years? How good is his record? To me on paper it looks very sound, but he has had some good teams / players to work with (Porto, Spain, Real Madrid, Sevilla). His overall record as a manager shows a 57% win rate from over 400 games.

Statistically, David Moyes record (in a West Ham context) is very sound too, but results in the last season and a half have been less than convincing apart from the European adventure and trophy. The football played in so many games has not been good enough, tactically he has been left wanting frequently, and we have suffered a number of heavy (embarrassing) defeats.

I won’t enter the debate on the new head coach until he is here and will wait to see what happens in the next few months. He certainly has a big job to do in overhauling the squad with many out of contract and ageing players. David Moyes apparently likes working with small squads and it certainly caught up with him in the end.

I have been thinking about some of the players that we’ve sold or sent out on loan in the last year. Pablo Fornals was a Spanish international when he came to us, did a reasonable if unspectacular job here, and now at Real Betis is creating more chances than virtually everyone in the Spanish league. Thilo Kehrer, a German international, never seemed to be at his best here, yet just take a look at his spectacular statistics at Monaco. Said Benrahma, superb for Brentford, comes to us, clearly not fancied by the manager, confidence disappears, is now turning it on at Lyons. Flynn Downes, always looked a decent player to me when given an opportunity here, but allowed out on loan to Southampton, where Russell Martin described him as their key player in the push for promotion. Freddie Potts, on loan at Wycombe, their player of the year. Perhaps one or more of these could have been more than useful in the squad in the disappointing second half of the season where a European place beckoned at the turn of the year but faded in 2024. But no we turned to Kalvin Phillips, a seasoned England international but way off the pace sitting on the Manchester City bench who has cost us millions. That turned out well, didn’t it?

Several positions need strengthening but for me a key priority is at the back, in particular central defence where for so long we have lacked pace to deal with the speed of Premier League attackers. Will Paqueta stay? Personally, I’m not bothered either way. He has undoubted talents but application can be lacking at times, and I’d hope that the £85million could be spent as wisely as it was when Declan Rice left a year ago with Kudus, Alvarez and JWP, all of whom I believe can offer much in the future if used in the right way, in the right positions, alongside Hammer of the Year Jarrod Bowen.

For some time now our Academy and youth teams have produced outstanding results, but this has not been reflected in players coming through into the First Team squad. There are high hopes for George Earthy and I would hope others too can get opportunities in the squad. Hopefully the new head coach will be able to bring on the youngsters more than has happened in recent times.

We’ve been known to spoil a Manchester party in the past but it is hard to imagine us halting the City celebrations this time around. At the end of the game at Tottenham they were celebrating as if the title was already theirs with just little old West Ham with the fragile defence to come in the final game. They were preparing their abacuses to take to the game.

Unlike a number of social media posts I’ve read where supposed West Ham fans want us to lose to deprive Arsenal of the title, because of their dislike or hatred of Arsenal and the Rice factor, I am in the opposite camp. You are entitled to your opinion but I hold an entirely different view. I may dislike some teams, but hate? No.

I would never ever want us to lose a game to influence what happens elsewhere. To any of you who want us to lose why not consider the bigger picture? If we did manage to hold or even (very unlikely) beat Manchester City then just think how brassed off Tottenham fans will be that Arsenal have won the title and West Ham were largely responsible for that happening. Surely you dislike Tottenham even more than Arsenal?

I always want us to win every game we play. I have no problems with Declan Rice and wish him well – he did a great job in a West Ham shirt. Personally I’d be more than happy if the Manchester City domination of the Premier League title was broken.

But realistically it would take a miracle. But miracles do happen very occasionally. Bookmakers have City at 1/12 to win the game (and the title) with West Ham at 20/1 and the draw at 11/1.

An interesting summer lies ahead.

West Ham Play Cameo Role In End Of The Piers Show

The curtain comes down on another Premier League season with the Hammers involved in final day drama at The Etihad. Is there any chance of derailing a fourth successive title for Manchester City?

So here we are again. The final Premier League weekend of the season and the now traditional shifting of the weekend’s fixtures so that supporters must make their way home on Sunday rail replacement bus services once the action is over.

With almost all of the league’s placings now settled, TV executives at least have a theoretical title-decider to ramp up the afternoon’s excitement. The helicopter will be parked up in Birmingham awaiting final instructions on whether the mad, last-minute dash with the trophy is to The Emirates or The Etihad. I say, theoretical, because all that sits between Manchester City and a fourth successive title are the serial roll-over merchants from West Ham.

The Super Sunday crew would have been furious with Son Heung-min for missing that late chance to equalise on Tuesday night. The prospect of the two protagonists going into the final day equal on points would have been mouthwatering (© Peter Drury.) Then it would have come down to a first past the post who can outscore who contest. Now Manchester City have the luxury of only needing to win by any score, in a fixture they have been triumphant in on the last seven occasions.

Among the straws being clutched at by Piers Morgan and his pals down the Hornsey Road is that David Moyes has a surprisingly good record in games against Manchester City, ignoring the fact that most of that happened while the Citizens were just another football club. When Moyes has faced Pep Guardiola, the playing field has been about as level as lion versus wildebeest.

The game will, of course, be Moyes final farewell and he may well be chuffed with a third top ten finish in four years. Looking back at my pre-season predictions I had West Ham down as finishing 13th. So, in some ways, he has exceeded my expectations. I just wouldn’t want to have to sit through it all again. At least he was able to sign off with a last home win last weekend once his side had woken up in the second half to ease past relegated Luton. No sooner had I been cursing the manager’s decision to opt for the terrible midfield double pivot of James Ward-Prowse and Tomas Soucek than both popped up to score. Yet, I shudder to think what might happen if he starts with the same pairing again on Sunday.

The decision to make Edson Alvarez the scapegoat for defeat to Chelsea was baffling. Alvarez has been one of the top performers all season and has sometimes acted alone in not treating the game passively. Maybe a ball-winner is surplus to requirements in a side set up not to have it.

It is hard to imagine Moyes making any radical changes for his last game. It will be the usual favourites playing their usual roles in the usual low block. My prediction is that it will hold out until the 17th minute – and will be downhill from there. City just have too much quality to resist the charge just by putting as many bodies as possible in the way. They will eventually find a way through, past, or around.

The best hope is that a Premier League lawyer will run onto the pitch in added time to announce that City’s punishment for 115 breaches of the rules is to award the game to West Ham. I wonder if City will be stripped of their titles if found guilty of cheating?

In conclusion, my 2023/24 awards go to:

Player of the Year: Jarrod Bowen
Best Goal: Mohammed Kudus versus Freiburg
Best Goal (Premier League): Mohammed Kudus versus Brentford (away)
Bench Warmer of the Year: Divin Mubama
Annual Roberto Shocking Signing Award: Kalvin Phillips

Wouldn’t it be nice to believe the Hammers could be worthy opponents today. Not for anyone else’s sake but our own. It doesn’t make much difference to me who wins the league. I see no lesser between the two evils. How about countering the earlier cynicism with dreams of a last-minute Vladimir Coufal winner? COYI!

Exclusive: West Ham Unlikely To Win At The Etihad Stadium Tonight

A weary, relegation threatened West Ham team and a manager with no plan for winning travel to meet the unstoppable champions-elect in Manchester this evening. What could possibly go wrong?

David Moyes dreadful managerial record in away games to top sides – no wins in 70-odd attempts – comes under the spotlight again as West Ham visit Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium this evening. In a fixture that would feature as the least winnable match of the season, even in the best of circumstances, is effectively a ‘gimme’ for the home side based on current trajectories and historic performance.

The Citizens are unbeaten in the Premier League since losing to Tottenham (yes, really) on 5 February. Since then, they have won ten and drawn one in their customary storming end to the season. At home they have dropped just five points in 16 games.

By contrast, West Ham go into the game off the back of two consecutive defeats. The short-lived feel-good factor following the win at Bournemouth now a distant memory. If a few positives could be taken from the unfortunate home defeat to Liverpool, the performance at Crystal Palace has to be one of the most abysmal of the season. With a final scoreline that seriously flattered the Hammers, and failed to represent the gulf between the two teams, this was Moyesball at its most depressing. Having witnessed this cautious, uninspiring fare for the best part of eighteen months has become so painful that the Sisyphean task of rolling a huge rock uphill for eternity is starting to look attractive. Please pray to your favourite deity that this is Moyes propreantepenultimate match in charge as West Ham manager.

If there was any mitigation for the Palace display it was the unhelpful Saturday lunchtime kick-off in the middle of West Ham’s intense fixture schedule. A situation exacerbated by an over-reliance on a handful of core players – particularly Declan Rice, Jarrod Bowen, and Michail Antonio – who looked exhausted and frustrated. It has become a carbon copy of last season’s run-in where fatigue saw the team stumbling across the finishing line having fallen away in both domestic and European competition.

Palace only needed a basic competence to dominate the game on Saturday. In Zaha, Eze, and Olise they have players with pace, close control, and an ability to run with the ball that is missing from the Hammers midfield. All the visitors could offer was a threat from set pieces. Strange that the goal finally separating the two sides was a penalty awarded for a blatant dive – one that VAR deemed to be acceptable. It was the second poor penalty related decision that went against West Ham in four days -decisions that could still turn out to be significant and costly. Equally strange, were the strange substitutions and the Hammers reluctance to go all out for an equaliser once the score had been brought back to 4-3 with 20 minutes to play.

I’m not as confident as some Hammers fans that survival is all but guaranteed this season. We are certainly better placed than the five teams below us, but the probability of failing to pick up any more points is not as remote as might be believed. Tonight is the game in hand with a danger that the goal difference advantage will not be quite as healthy once it is over. Although, in practice West Ham have saved their heftier drubbings by City for home games.  

Manchester City are now firm favourites to claim their third Premier League title in a row, making it five in ten years – unless they are relegated for the 100 or more breaches of FA rules and regulations under investigation. City have become even more formidable under the leadership of Pep Guardiola during a period where the other would-be title pretenders have all struggled for consistency. Guardiola is widely recognised as a tactical genius but needs a Champions League win or two to cement that title. Genius or not, he operates with a spectacular financial advantage compared to others with a bottomless transfer kitty. Scouting the goal scoring machine that is Erling Haaland was hardly a difficult, insightful or risky decision to take. Even under the guidance of Moyes at West Ham, Haaland would be leading scorer with seven or eight goals by now!

With a trip to Real Madrid to prepare for next week, Guardiola may rest key players for tonight’s game. Not that it will affect the result, but it might keep the score down a little. Moyes may be equally tempted into a spot of squad rotation with games against Manchester United and AZ Alkmaar to come in the next eight days. But we should remember that a slightly weakened Manchester City team is a very different beast to a slightly weakened West Ham one.

Both Rice and Bowen deserve a break and Antonio needs careful management. Rice has played every Premier League minute so far this season, and Bowen has missed just 22 minutes. Although Antonio has only played the equivalent of 18 games this season, he has featured heavily in all recent matches since the penny dropped that in buying Danny Ings, West Ham have yet again recruited a player wholly unsuited to the role required by the manager.

The reason that Moyes has such a terrible record away to top sides is that he approaches these games with the sole intention of trying not to lose. That this strategy has largely failed has never deterred him from giving it one more try. I’m sure he will play with five at the back again today with a game plan of all behind the ball and hoof it away as far as possible, hoping to win an occasional corner for an attempt on goal. My best guess is for West Ham to enjoy around 12% possession. Our best hope? That City get a couple of goals in front and then declare, conserving energy for the more challenging tasks in the weeks ahead. What a waste. COYI!

Battle Lines Drawn For The League’s Premier City Versus United Clash

It’s third against fourth at the Etihad Stadium. Can West Ham exceed expectation and return from Manchester with more than hard luck stories?

If at the start of the season I had been asked to rank all West Ham’s games from most to least winnable, I would without hesitation have placed away to Manchester City at the very end of the list.

Since City won the Abu Dhabi lottery, the only West Ham victory on their patch was in September 2015, when Slaven Bilic’s Payet-inspired team beat Pellegini’s City by two goals to one. Prior to that that you need to go back to April, 2003 for another league success. Freddie Kanoute’s solitary goal enough to keep Trevor Brooking’s heroic, but ultimately unsuccessful, great escape dream alive.

Despite trailing Chelsea in the current standings, City remain most people’s favourites to retain the Premier League title. If that comes to pass then it will be four in six years for Guardiola. No doubt, he is a gifted coach who is able to manage the egos of superstar players – but a bottomless pit of resources must also come in handy. He was certainly an upgrade on Pellegrini, yet I’m not convinced that the players he has brought in measure up in character to those that have left since his arrival – Toure, Kompany, Silva, Aguero, for example – even if he has an exceedingly useful squad to call upon.

A stark contrast to our own humble club who, prior to kick-off, are a single place and three points behind the champions. A remarkable achievement by David Moyes and his team given the imbalance in resources. Perhaps Moyes is not the right type of manager for the super rich clubs (as his time at the other United might suggest) but he is looking a perfect match for the patient team building and development model now underway in east London.

With new investment on the cards, the future of the club is looking much brighter than it has for some time. A complete turnaround from the storm clouds of Burnley in March 2018. Does anyone else think that in the publicity shot doing the rounds, Daniel Kretinsky looks menacing rather than friendly or enigmatic? The kind of sinister grin you might see from a movie villain about to reveal his collection of pliers, bolt croppers, and saws to a terrified captive.

Great to see West Ham seal top spot in their Europa League group with a largely second eleven coasting to a comfortable win in Vienna. The fringe players (including several exciting academy prospects) have done the club proud in qualifying, but may get fewer opportunities to impress once the round of sixteen arrives next March. Here’s hoping all the Spanish clubs are either still holding on in the Champion’s League or have been eliminated from the Europa League by then – particularly Sevilla, the serial winners of the trophy.

I’m not expecting any surprises in today’s line-up which should be pretty much the same team that lost at Wolverhampton. I do have a suspicion that Vladimir Coufal might return in place of Ben Johnson (for his greater attacking threat) and while I would welcome a look at a Kurt Zouma – Issa Diop paring in central defence, I believe Moyes will stick with Craig Dawson.

City may be without De Bruyne, Grealish and Foden and could start with a front three of Mahrez, Sterling and Jesus. Plenty of variety but no-one obviously leading the line. A different type of challenge for the Hammers defensively and one that will require complete concentration throughout. An afternoon of the opposition bossing possession, seeking to wear down our legs and creating openings with bursts of quick and intricate passing.

Surrendering the lion’s share is not an unreasonable tactic but the key to taking something from the game will be the ability to retain possession and make good use of the ball when we have it. It needs to be better than at Molineux. Giving the ball away cheaply only increases the pressure and leaving Michail Antonio isolated up front will not unsettle the hosts defence. Much will depend on how effectively the attacking midfield three can keep the ball, make the right decisions. and get forward quickly enough in support of Antonio. We can’t hold out for penalties this time.

These types of game can be an uncomfortable watch sometimes – and tough on the fingernails. Even if there is a tactical fascination unfolding it is difficult to appreciate it in real time. Expectations are not high of a result but there is always hope. We were unlucky to come away with nothing last season and maybe the football gods feel they owe us something in return. A 1-1 draw, perhaps. COYI!

Goodnight Vienna as Hammers Waltz into Europa League Last 16

On Thursday evening West Ham waltzed into the last 16 knockout stages of the Europa League with yet another professional performance without playing as well as we can. With a little more composure in front of goal it could have been four or five nil but with eight changes it was still a more than satisfactory performance. With the other game in the group between Dinamo Zagreb and Genk ending 1-1 it would have only needed a draw in Vienna to top the group with a game still to play, but the confidence that the fringe players will have gained from the comfortable victory bodes well for the remainder of the season. With so many games to play in such a short space of time (10 in 31 days), many of the squad players are likely to be called upon.

Four clean sheets and just two goals conceded in five games is the best defensive performance of all 32 teams in the Europa League. In this game some of our most important and influential players (such as Zouma, Rice and Antonio) were not needed and most of the other Premier League regulars did not play full games. There were many good performances but one that stood out for me was that of Coufal who I believe should regain his place in the league team this weekend. It was also good to see a 17 year old debutant given his chance and he so nearly scored too. I wonder how many fringe players will be given an opportunity in the final group game against Dinamo Zagreb?

This weekend’s Premier League game away to Manchester City is about as tough as it gets. Along with Chelsea and Liverpool, City are undoubtedly one of the three standout teams that will contest the title. It wasn’t that long ago that we spoke about the elite six, but now in my opinion there are only three teams that are well ahead of the rest. We are one of a few teams that will be fighting for that fourth spot in the table. City will be desperate for revenge after we dumped them out of the League Cup, a competition that they have dominated for the last five years. They were excellent when disposing of PSG to top their Champions League group on Wednesday and we will be doing very well to come out of the game with a point. But it’s not Impossible if we are at our best and they are not. Crystal Palace won there recently so I hope we can do the same, but I wouldn’t underestimate how difficult it will be.

Bookmakers recognise the gulf between the top three and the rest, but their odds set for this game are even more extreme than the league positions would suggest was appropriate. City are at home and one would expect them to be favourites of course. They are currently second in the league on 26 points, just three points ahead of ourselves in fourth. Recent form is similar although we were a little disappointing in Wolverhampton last week. Nevertheless, based on this, one wouldn’t expect us to be the biggest outsiders in all the games this weekend. But we are and I’ve seen odds of up to 10/1 on a West Ham victory and around 6/1 on a draw. City on the other hand are around 2/9. Astonishing really given the closeness of league form and positions.

I am a little less confident for a positive result in this game compared to our previous fixtures this season, but wearing my optimistic hat I will be hoping for a draw, and predict 1-1 with Dawson scoring our goal with a header from a corner. Dawson to score the first goal in the game attracts odds of around 50/1. The odds are the same for him to score the last goal in the game. I’ll go for the latter with my fun bet this week. What are the chances?

The Pep Stop Boys: Moyes Gets The Band Back Together To Take A Pop At City

Go West Ham! A Hammers performance that brings an end to Manchester City’s long winning streak would be always on my mind.

I was amused to read a number of West Ham supporters on social media urging David Moyes to abandoned his cautious tendencies and “have a go” at Manchester City in today’s early kick-off at the Etihad Stadium.  Now I’m not saying I know exactly what they mean by having a go but if it involves taking the game to the opposition then it would be a reckless recipe for disaster – potentially straying into Ralph Hasenhüttl territory.

There is a danger that we are getting ahead of ourselves here. Moyes understands the strengths and weaknesses of his squad and the Hammers current position in the Premier League reflects that pragmatism. It is based on hard work, organisation and energy – a solid defensive shape supported by rapid counter-attacking and strength at set pieces. It works fine for me and have found myself delighted with the application and team spirit that has been demonstrated this season.

In an ideal world I would love the team to be more expansive, but that’s not where we are. We need to evolve to dominate games against the lesser sides before believing we can do it against the elite. In a game of opinions I can accept that others will see it differently, but this is not a negatively minded West Ham side in my view. It is one playing to their current strengths and acknowledging their limitations.

Much of the case for the prosecution about Moyes cautious outlook goes back to the Liverpool game. Admittedly it was not the Hammers finest recent performance, but Liverpool managed to conjure up their title winning form that day – although, ironically, they have lost all four Premier League games since then. Two weeks after beating West Ham, I sat through their visit to Leicester. Watching the game and looking at the stats afterwards, the games were almost carbon copy of each other, apart from the final score. Liverpool bossed possession 68% – 32% on both occasions, took the lead through Salah midway through the second half and were comfortably controlling the games. West Ham and Leicester completed an identical number of passes and although The Foxes had three more attempts at goal, the Hammers won four more corners and recorded a better passing accuracy. It all unravelled, though, in the final ten minutes at Leicester; the hosts equalised from a free kick and Liverpool (particularly their goalkeeper) simply went to pieces. Such are the fine margins of football which separate Rodgers’ ‘tactical genius’ from Moyes’ ‘lack of ambition’.

Of course, stats can disguise and distract us from nature and nuances of games – none more so than the possession statistic, which is pointless if you don’t make good use of it. I think most Hammers would like to see the team retain the ball retention better and that it remains an area for improvement. Moyes said as much after last week’s win against Tottenham. As I see it, it is a combination of poor individual decision making and not committing enough people forward when possession is won.

Any win over the north London neighbours is warmly appreciated and one that cemented fourth place as well as opening up a nine-point gap over our rivals was particularly sweet. We started well (did we score too-soon?) but seemed to lose momentum with the injury to Tomas Soucek – super Tom demonstrating a level of courage rarely seen in the modern game.

At last, VAR did what it is supposed to be there for by spotting the clear and obvious howler of the linesman’s flag, even if it took an age to do so. Did they rewind back to the half time whistle in the search for an infringement?  So many goals have to be celebrated twice nowadays, and the impromptu band performance was a moment to savour. The final twenty minutes or so was squeaky bottom viewing and not good for the blood pressure. I’m sure there were many like me yelling at the TV as we kept giving the ball back to the visitors and asking them to try again. Resolute defending and good fortune eventually combined to save the day.

An Opta projected final league table in the week (apparently based on running thousands of simulations) showed West Ham finishing in 7th place on 61 points – we had fallen below Chelsea, Liverpool and Tottenham in their findings. To be honest, I would be a shade disappointed if we finish outside the top six now, despite starting the season hoping for anything better than 17th. I’ll admit to being one of those who were predicting nul points by the end of October. It is said we have a tough run-in, but in fact the remaining fixtures work out as six from the top ten and seven from the bottom ten. I remain hopeful.

Playing each of the top three in the next six games does constitute a tough run, however. And none come tougher than away to Manchester City, who after a sluggish start have become an irresistible force – will West Ham represent the immovable object? . Guardiola has hit upon a plan B that has reined in their former free scoring flamboyance, but tightened up the vulnerable defence significantly. He is an exceptional manager, but one with the luxury of the world’s most expensively assembled (by some distance) squad at his disposal. A squad that includes eleven players costing more than £40 million. Buy a pair of expensive duds at City and it is written off as an accounting error. Do so at West Ham and it stymies the club for years to come.

The only sensible approach today is to constrain and frustrate City, much as West Ham did at the London Stadium back in October, a game that might have been won had the clear and obvious penalty (for a foul on Michail Antonio) been awarded. City are a different proposition these days and it will be a tall order to maintain concentration and resist the relentless City probing throughout ninety minutes. Not going out all guns blazing isn’t the same as not trying to win. On the rare occasions that City have lost at home in the league in the past few seasons it has been the result of a smash and grab mugging. That is the Hammers task today.

On the balance of probabilities West Ham will lose this game nine times out of ten (if not more often) due to the inequality of resources. It is not a game that will define the rest of the season but a moral sapping heavy defeat from a gung-ho approach could do.

It would be a massive achievement to be the side that manages to put a stop to the Manchester City juggernaut. It is implausible to predict a victory but maybe, just maybe, the Hammers can plunder an unlikely draw. As Pep might say (if he were Portuguese) “Se a vida é” – That’s the Way Life Is.  COYI!

Can West Ham end City’s Winning Run?

I’ve been watching West Ham for more than 60 years and throughout that time I have often been able to witness some excellent attacking football. Not always of course, but at times we have had some great teams going forward, some brilliant goalscorers, and many skilful midfielders. During that time defending has never been our forte despite boasting some super defenders, with perhaps Bobby Moore and Billy Bonds being the pick. This season has been a revelation in that respect, and David Moyes plus his coaching staff must take great credit in producing a group of players that are highly organised and know their jobs when it comes to defending as a whole team.

The bargain recruits, Coufal and Dawson, have fitted in magnificently with Ogbonna and Cresswell, who are both having arguably their best season at the club. Diop and Balbuena have both come into the centre back positions when called upon, and Johnson is beginning to show what a fine player he may become. Fredericks doesn’t get a good press with many of our supporters, and whilst I can understand that in some ways, I believe he has plenty to offer as a squad player, with many underestimating how important he was when used as an auxiliary full back to help Coufal in taming Grealish. If he could add better touch to his undoubted pace he could yet offer a lot.

Moyes is building a team with power and pace, and it is unusual for us to be able to boast the best record in the top flight for goals scored from set pieces. It is even more unusual to see us at the top of the charts when it comes to defending set pieces, and great credit must go to the coaching staff for this too. That is why it was particularly surprising to concede a goal headed in directly from a corner scored by Moura of Tottenham last weekend, a player not noted for his aerial ability.

Nonetheless we defended well against the second half Tottenham onslaught, rode our luck a couple of times, and moved into fourth position, and a Champions League place, following our 2-1 win. I still have to pinch myself when I look at the league table, especially after we lost the first couple of games of the season. But with just 13 games to go we are in a strong position to finish higher in the table than any of us would have dreamt of just six months ago.

The next few games will probably hold the key to our eventual finishing position with a tough run of fixtures in March and April being followed by an easier (on paper) May. And it doesn’t come any tougher than this game against Manchester City, who are by far the best team in England at the moment, and likely to go a long way in the Champions League – they are currently 9/4 favourites to come out on top in that competition, with perhaps the only real threats coming from Bayern and PSG.

There seems little doubt that they will win the Premier League as they are now ten points clear in that, as well as being able to boast nineteen straight wins in all competitions. Can we stop them from making it twenty? Quite probably not as they play at a level beyond all other teams in the league at the present time. But it is probably as good a time to play them as any.  I’ll be looking for us to put up a strong performance. Our final finishing position will not depend on this result, but it will be a good test to see how far we have come as this season has progressed. Hopefully our defensive unit will show how difficult we are to beat, and perhaps we could come out of the game with a draw. Unlikely I know, but let’s hope we can snatch a point.

If you think we can you can get odds of about 5/1. An unlikely victory is priced at around 12/1. City are 1/4 which is not as short as they often are to win home games. I’ve done pretty well in recent times with my score predictions in West Ham games, with the 2-1 win last weekend another to add to my collection. For this game I’m going for a goalless draw. The odds on that happening are around 16/1. A win would be great but I can’t see that outcome.

City had won ten consecutive games against us before we held them 1-1 in the reverse fixture early in the season. So we do have form when it comes to disrupting their winning runs. Like Tottenham last week they had a European fixture in midweek before facing us, although with the depth and strength of their squad I can’t see this inconveniencing them too much. There have been a few 0-0 draws in league games between the two teams in history but all happened at Upton Park. It has never happened before in a league game where Manchester City are at home to us. But there’s always a first time isn’t there? What are the chances?  

Hammers Pledge City Support By Refusing To Compete In The Champion’s League

With a Premier League points deduction mooted for Manchester City, tonight’s storm affected fixture takes on the potential of a relegation six-pointer

The re-scheduled visit of West Ham to Manchester City, previously blown away by Storm Ciara, has now been overshadowed by the fall-out from Storm Mansour. With the Hammers unlikely to be pulling up any trees themselves at the Etihad (or should that be Mansour) stadium this evening, the footballing world has been wetting its collecting pants over the hosts impending ban from European competition.

It is possible that if the UEFA sanctions are sustained, then the Premier League will also be forced to act – with a points deduction that could effectively turn tonight’s encounter into a relegation six pointer.

The Abu Dhabi millions will, no doubt, ensure the story runs and runs through whichever legal avenues they choose to pursue it. City’s owners have, to date, demonstrated a staggering arrogance in their response to the allegations of misrepresenting the true source of sponsorship funds, originally leaked in the German press. Rather than share their apparent ‘irrefutable’ evidence that the charges are incorrect, their defence has appeared to be that supreme wealth puts them above the law – as it would do in their home country.

On the face of it (and from what we know from the leaks), it looks apparent that City broke the rules as they stand. That’s not to say that the rules are necessarily sensible. They do appear drafted to preserve the status quo rather than really addressing any concept of financial fair play – if that means at least creating the semblance of a level playing field. There are also very valid questions as to whether all serially big spending clubs were being judged equally.

Reaction to the ban has been interesting and, for me, has parallels to our own Tevezgate episode – where the majority of West Ham fans felt themselves to be victims while everyone else believed us to be as guilty as hell – breaking another of football’s difficult to understand rules. The outrage form City fans has likewise been seismic.

Year on year, football has become more of a media product and less concerned with the afternoon out for the matchday supporter. The proliferation of streaming services and the involvement of tech giants will only make matters worse over time. The packaging of the product is more important than what is inside the box. Media money is king and the role of those in attendance is mainly to create atmosphere for the cameras – arguably they should be paid as ‘extras’.

The Champion’s League sits at the top of the football money tree. Once the icing on the cake, it has become the cake itself and its participants turned into brands rather than clubs. It is only a matter of time, I think, before CL games are switched to weekends in order to better exploit the global TV audience – a UK evening kick-off is just too inconvenient for the armchair followers in Asia and North America. The Premier League will be forced to shuffle its scheduling to even more annoying times accordingly.

Perhaps we should applaud our own owners for refusing to compete in the Champion’s League – it seems they have the supporter’s interests at heart after all.

I’m joking by the way (about our owners). But it wouldn’t bother me if the ‘elite’ clubs broke away to form a European super league – if resigning from the Premier League was a pre-requisite. We could then return to the sanity of a competitive domestic league that had true financial fair play with fixed squad sizes and a monetary salary cap.  It could still be possible to qualify for a new knock-out European competition – maybe we could call it, the European Cup. Sadly, I don’t really expect any of that to happen.

As for the game itself, nothing has materially changed from when it was originally scheduled. The European ban will be a media talking point (a pleasant relief from VAR) but I don’t see it impacting performances on the pitch. For West Ham, this and the Liverpool game remain damage limitation exercises and coming away from the two games without a substantially worse goal difference may be counted as a success.

David Moyes plan will be one of containment but without any ideas what to do if/ when the defences are eventually breached. From his pre-match comments it sounded like he is reluctant to ‘unleash’ Jarrod Bowen for tonight’s fixture – possibly not wanting to risk him in a game that he believes we will lose anyway.

In theory, legs should be fresh after a two week break but prior experience doesn’t back up that view, where players have returned from breaks more rusty than revived. West Ham are typically slow starters after every break.

Nevertheless, we continue to live in hope and maybe a miracle can occur, despite the body of evidence that would indicate otherwise. If we are to survive, we should be looking to cobble together six points or so between now and the end of March. I don’t see any of them coming here.