Tag: #briwhu

Nuno’s Eggs, VAR’s Seaside Madness and Passing Through The Hoops To FA Cup Glory

The idiom of the curate’s egg is used to describe something that is good in parts. And that’s exactly how Nuno Espirito Santo’s time at West Ham can best be summed after ten games in charge. More sunny side up, and less last minute scrambles, please.

Ten points from ten games may be on the cusp of survival form but is not a good enough return to compensate for the terrible start engineered by Graham Potter. Interestingly, Potter’s overall record at the Hammers was also exactly a point per game – 23 from 23. So, plenty of room for improvement.

While Nuno might be perfectly happy to draw his way to safety it is not what is needed. Reaching the promised land of 40 points – which may or may not be enough this season in an unusually compressed Premier League table – demands 27 points from the remaining 23 games. My guess is that at least seven wins are needed somehow. By no means impossible, but better than what has gone before.

There are obvious signs of improvements under Nuno compared to the darkest days of Potter and Lopetegui. And to some extent he has been working in recovery mode from the hopelessness of the previous incumbents. The players now appear to understand what they are supposed to be doing (especially when defending set pieces), team spirit and resilience have returned to acceptable levels, youth is being given a chance, and individual players (Alphonse Areola, Jean-Clair Todibo and Dinos Mavropanos in particular) have demonstrated considerable improvement in both performance and attitude.

On the flip side, there are the weird team selections, dodgy substitutions and a flight towards safety in the closing stages of games which have already sacrificed a handful of winnable and much needed points. There is a supreme paradox that a coach who favours hyper-caution in game management is prepared to make untried and speculative tactical gambles by way of preparation.

It could equally be argued that the club is pretty much back where it left off with the Moyesiah. A predilection for low block, low possession, counter-attacking football and an over-reliance on Jarrod Bowen for goals.

True to form, Nuno sprang a curate’s egg selection surprise when the team sheets were handed in on Sunday. On the plus side, it was a welcome return for injury prone Crysencio Summerville in attack. But against that was another experiment with three central defenders, and the baffling inclusion of Guido Rodriguez in front of them.

Freddie Potts and Soungoutou Magassa were relegated to the bench while George Earthy, Mohamadou Kanté and Callum Marshall – all on the bench at Old Trafford- were excluded from the matchday squad completely.

In fairness, Rodriguez did what was asked of him. But his inclusion was still an odd decision where better, more flexible, options were available. The modern coaching fraternity are obsessed with the need for squad rotation once the games come around “thick and fast’” – whether it is needed or not. A Potts/ Magassa job share would have worked equally well defensively and with the aded bonus of greater energy going forward.

Nuno’s intent to contain and frustrate Brighton worked just as planned for long periods of the match. Hürzeler’s Seagulls tend more towards Potter’s version than the more adventurous, higher risk De Zerbi incarnation. Faced with numbers and a compact Hammer’s defensive shape they were unable to trouble Areola in the West Ham goal until their closing minutes assault.

The best chance of a stodgy first half fell to Summerville but his shot was easily saved. For all the admirable pace and movement, his decision making and end-product need a radical improvement at this level. Difficult to believe from his deer-in-the-headlights attempts at goal that he once racked up 21 goals in a season for Leeds. He would later be denied by an excellent stop from the Brighton keeper.

West Ham took the lead moments after the introduction of Callum Wilson. A hopeful clearance by Kilman, a mistake in the Brighton defence and Wilson feeding Bowen who scored with a fine hooked shot from the tightest of angles. Could they hold on or even score another?

While a low-block isn’t directly equivalent to parking the bus, that is what the Hammer’s strategy became with each successive substitution. With no pace and no-one able to carry the ball forward the last 15 minutes became a game of attack versus defence, just as it had against Bournemouth. The biggest mistake of all was to withdraw Mateus Fernandes. With him went the important protection in front of the back line. Suddenly, it was the hosts winning all the 50-50 challenges.

When the whole defensive line drops so deep and invites constant pressure holding out becomes a lottery. The reason most managers don’t deploy a 9-0-1 formation. All it needs is a lucky bounce or wicked deflection. Or in this case, the incompetence of VAR.

VAR should only have one job. To pick up the infringements that the referee misses in the hurly burly of on-field action. Of course, this isn’t what the jokers at PGMOL have done. Instead, they have rewritten all sorts of rules to suit the technology available. And in doing so, they have either failed to think them through – requiring constant revision and re-interpretation. Or introduced fixes to problems that hadn’t existed previously.

How could anyone (and I’m looking at you VAR-meister, Tony Harrington) look at multiple replays from multiple angles and fail to see the dangerous assault on Dinos’ head and/ or conclude that the handball should not be penalised. Some made-up nonsense about phases of play which meant that had Areola let the original shot in, it would have been disallowed. But when the same player scores three seconds later it was OK.

The ever-changing interpretation of the rules are a farce. Daft decisions being imposed by daft people. All totally subjective. And the reason why you can always find a retired man in black to support whatever opinion you fancy in the media.

In all the excitement, there was still a chance for Dinos to miss a gilt-edged opportunity to bag a winner from the final corner of the match. It is now two years since a central defender scored for West Ham (Dinos at Arsenal) which in the age of set piece specialists is another sad Hammer’s statistic. Like not having a decent corner taker or anyone capable of launching a threatening throw-in into the box.

It was nice to see Ezra Mayers, another academy lad, make his Premier League debut. Too little time to make any impression but we may be seeing more of him once the AFCON players depart.

***

Last night’s FA Cup draw was kinder to West Ham than in previous years when Joe Cole presented them with a 3rd round home tie against QPR. The Hoops were 5th round opponents at Upton Park enroute to the Hammer’s 1975 Final win. However, we have faced them three times in the competition since then and lost on each occasion.

A nice little cup run would be a welcome relief after a dismal two years for West Ham supporters. So, let’s hope that Nuno treats it with the respect it deserves.

At the weekend, West Ham entertain Aston Villa, the Premier League’s current form team. They have a Europa League game in Switzerland on Thursday night, so any flight delays or travel problems will be greatly appreciated. COYI!    

Can West Ham break the Brighton curse? Will the Seagulls soar or the Hammers strike? The Sunday showdown at the Amex.

West Ham United visit Brighton & Hove Albion at the Amex Stadium this Sunday, with both sides seeking to improve their fortunes as the season approaches its midpoint at the end of the month. Historically, Brighton have dominated this fixture, losing only once in 16 Premier League encounters with West Ham (seven wins, eight draws), with our sole win coming in August 2023. West Ham’s win rate against Brighton stands at just 6%, our lowest against any opponent faced more than twice in the competition. Brighton have also scored more Premier League goals against West Ham (31) than against any other side, and only Manchester United (8 times) have been beaten more often by the Seagulls than the Hammers (7 times).

Brighton enter the match in solid form, having won three of their last six league games. Their recent results include victories over Leeds (3-0), Brentford (2-1), and Nottingham Forest (2-0), a draw with Crystal Palace (0-0), and a 4-3 defeat to Aston Villa and a 4-2 loss to Manchester United. The Seagulls have shown attacking prowess but also some defensive frailties, scoring 12 goals and conceding 9 in this period. For the season to date they have won 6, drawn 4 and lost 4, 24 goals scored and 20 conceded, and sit in seventh place with 22 points prior to this round of matches. But the table is so congested they are just two points below Chelsea in fourth and three points above Bournemouth in fourteenth.

West Ham, meanwhile, have struggled for consistency throughout the season. In our last six matches, we have shown an upturn and recorded two wins (3-1 vs Newcastle, 3-2 vs Burnley), two draws (2-2 vs Bournemouth, 1-1 vs Manchester United), and two defeats (2-1 vs Leeds, 2-0 vs Liverpool). The Hammers have scored 10 goals and conceded 10, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities that have plagued our campaign. For the season as a whole we have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 8 giving us 12 points with 16 goals scored and 28 conceded. Only Wolves (29) have conceded more. As a result we sit in the relegation zone in 18th place, two points adrift of 17th placed Leeds.

Brighton’s squad is stretched by injuries, with Tzimas, Milner, March, and Webster ruled out. Mitoma, Ayari, Watson, and Rutter are doubtful. Danny Welbeck, who has scored six Premier League goals against West Ham, is expected to lead the line, supported by the creative talents of Minteh, Gruda, and De Cuyper.

According to Nuno West Ham welcome back Lucas Paquetá after suspension (but not welcome back for me!), which he believes should bolster our midfield creativity. However, we remain without Igor Julio, Oliver Scarles, and possibly Crysencio Summerville. Callum Wilson, with eight goal contributions against Brighton, will be a key attacking threat, while Jarrod Bowen continues to be our most potent source of goals and assists, although his form appears to have dipped of late. So many of his shots are either missing the target or are getting blocked.

Our last game in midweek was a deserved 1-1 draw at Old Trafford. Personally I was impressed by the efforts of the team as a whole, particularly the performances of Magassa, Wan Bissaka, Potts, Fernandes and Todibo. At last we are getting greater pace and mobility in midfield but I didn’t understand the selection of Soucek and the position he was asked to play; I would have liked to see Earthy given his opportunity to add further mobility to the middle of the pitch. And I couldn’t understand why there was such a delay in making substitutions when we were a goal down either.

Some of the points from Nuno’s conference on Friday: he confirmed Lucas Paqueta is “going to play” from the start after serving his one-match suspension for his red card against Liverpool. Asked if he had any concerns over Paqueta’s dissent, Nuno added: “I already spoke about that. It is in the past. I am positive it will not happen again because he personally admitted his mistake. We spoke about it in the dressing room. I am positive it is over and it will not be repeated.” We shall see!

On Crysencio Summerville’s fitness: “Hopefully returns soon. We miss him. We know what he gives to the team. Let’s see. We need all the players. I hope he can be back. I hope Oliver Scarles can join the team. We are going to need him because we lose our full-backs to Afcon.”

Nuno believes the midfield unit is “slowly progressing in knowledge and complicity”, adding: “Energy. They are all very young. They are growing together. They are slowly understanding the specifics. This is what makes a good midfield. You can’t be an individual. You can’t put two players together and expect them to click immediately.”

Being in the bottom three: “We cannot avoid it. It is a reality. We have to face it. We are fighting for survival. We cannot hide it. The results of other teams we cannot control. It is up to us.” Nuno says he is “slowly trying to fix” our poor record of defending set-pieces and we are now “trying to take advantage of offensive corners” like the one we scored from against Manchester United on Thursday. He added: “We know how important set-pieces are in the game. They are basic and fundamental for any kind of team. Working, working, working. Repeating, repeating. Trying to find the consistency of delivery, trying to mark the strong opponents we will find. The blocks are important. Alphonse got a big help with that also.”

Only Aston Villa have won more points from losing positions this season. But not too many teams fall behind as often as we do! “Everybody in the club is realising we have to give the best of everything. We have to give the best of us to get out of this situation. That is the reality. A club like us, as big as we are, we have to face the situation so we can go out. It is hard to build with urgency but the boys are committed and we think we can do it.”

Brighton have been particularly effective at home, scoring at least twice in each of their last six Premier League matches at the Amex. Their attacking rhythm and possession-based style have yielded results, though defensive lapses remain a concern for them. Under Nuno Espirito Santo we have shown some resilience but lack stability, especially at the back, having failed to keep a clean sheet in our last 11 league games.

Given Brighton’s historical dominance in this fixture, their strong home form, and West Ham’s defensive frailties, the Seagulls are favourites. We can expect an open contest with chances for both sides, but Brighton’s attacking cohesion and home advantage could prove decisive. A high-scoring affair is likely, with Brighton tipped by the bookmakers and most pundits to edge the match. I’d love to think we can surprise them but hope that we can at least add to our recent tally of drawn games and get a 2-2 draw. What are the chances?

The Annual Ritual Seaside Slaughter: Can West Ham Finally Stem The Brighton Tide?

The patron saint of lost causes daren’t look as West Ham contemplate further humiliation against league leaders and bogey team Brighton. Will the spell finally be broken?

For as long as I can remember, groups of young men have travelled down from London to Brighton on a bank holiday weekend to receive a good kicking. In the old days it was mods against rockers, today it is Hammers versus Seagulls.

West Ham’s Brighton hoodoo is a Premier League oddity which has been overseen by three different managers at each club. The 12 encounters since the Seagulls won promotion to the Premier League show a symmetrical 3-6-3 pattern – three defeats, followed by six draws, followed by the latest run of three defeats. Since David Moyes return to West Ham, he has taken only four points from seven games against the south coast club.

Reports from the West Ham training ground this week picked up a burst of unusual activity with full match highlights of last season’s Brighton versus Everton encounter being broadcast on 24/7 repeat. Nothing would represent the holy grail of Moyesball better than a 5-1 away victory with 22% possession. A repeat of that for West Ham today would surely be Manager of the Month material.

To be fair, the season has started in an unexpected positive vein for Moyes team. They have already surpassed the number of points I had anticipated from the opening six games, even if there has been no discernible improvement in the style of play on show. Four points and four goals from two games is not to be sneezed at. But, the stats for possession and completed passes continue to lag well behind all other teams in the league (or at least those who had completed two games after last weekend’s round of matches).

Moyes may well take the view that the ends justify the means. His caution may have cost two points at Bournemouth but probably won three in the derby victory over Chelsea – a win which generated far more prestige than beating the Cherries would.

Still, it is early days and great things are still possible from the transfer window – if the club finally gets it act together. The current scientific classification for a slow-moving phenomenon is now officially standardised as tortoise, slug, tectonic plates, West Ham player recruitment. However, exciting names continue to be linked with increasing intensity as the window enters its final week. There is an apparent high degree of confidence that Mohammed Kudus will be the next recruit to pass through the London Stadium doors. It would be a cracking signing if it comes off.

Tim Steidten has really started to make his mark in the role of Technical Director although the tension between Premier League experience (Maguire, Lingard) and exciting potential (Kudus, Ekitike) will still be rumbling along below the surface. Steidten has emerged as a transfer man of action and I have this image of snatch squad stalking the backstreets of Europe. A sack over the head of his potential target, bundled into van, whisked off to a disused war-time airfield and flown to an abandoned warehouse in Bow until contracts are signed. Guy Ritchie could do a decent job with that.

Today’s opponents, Brighton, are the gold standard of unearthing a production line of precocious talent at minimal cost. Hard to believe that 25 years ago they almost dropped out of the football league. Under the management of Graham Potter and then Roberto De Zerbi they have demonstrated an excellent balance between organisation and freedom of expression on the pitch that Hammer’s fans have been unable to enjoy. De Zerbi having added goals to supplement the Seagulls fondness for possession.

On paper, the Brighton team looks much weakened from the side who finished in sixth place last season. The loss of Mac Allister and Caicedo for big money and the end of Colwill’s loan must have been disruptive. Yet they have started the new campaign at a canter and currently lead the table with a 100% record and eight goals from two games played.

But as well as a willingness to put trust in young talent, the Seagulls also have a core of older unsung heroes in the from of Solly March, Lewis Dunk and Pascal Gross. Today, they may even have the 67-year-old James Milner wheeled out at right back.

Key to Brighton’s rise has been the ability to buy low and sell on at a profit to unsuspecting big spending opponents. Players who have looked sublime in the blue and white stripes invariably becoming substandard when pulling on their Chelsea strips. It’s almost as if the shirts have supernatural, magical powers capable of enchanting buyers with more money than sense. None of Maupay, Bissouma, Trossard, and especially Cucurella have rocked once away from Brighton. Will the same fate befall Mac Allister and Caicedo?

Since last weekend’s win over Chelsea, the Hammers have added Konstantinos Mavropanos to their ranks. A minor injury, however, means we must wait a while longer to enjoy a taste of Athens – West Ham’s first ever Greek player. With Nayef Aguerd serving a one match suspension, I expect Angelo Ogbonna to be the only change from the eleven that started on Sunday.

Even Lucas Paqueta didn’t see Aguerd’s second yellow card coming, and all is now quiet on any potential move for the flamboyant Brazilian, pending the upcoming FA enquiry. The Daily Mail have really got the bit between their teeth over the betting scandal story, even going as far as sending their fearless reporters to Paqueta Island to investigate. It is a little-known fact that Paqueta is the first Premier League player to have his own island since Gareth Barry.

So, what can we expect from today’s game? A further dose of the extreme and excessive caution that we saw from West Ham last week would be no surprise. But Brighton will not fall into the same trap as Chelsea did of relying solely on crosses to launch attacks. Their trademark is to pass and dribble through the middle. While the Hammer’s defence are comfortable making clearances and heading the ball away all afternoon, they are less adept at dealing with pacy runners. The encouraging news is that Julio Enciso may have to sit out the game due to injury, but that still leaves the fleet footed Kaoru Mitoma to put the West Ham rearguard to the sword.

If the Hammers are to finally put an end to the Brighton jinx they will need all the resilience and determination on show last week. Play like they did in the second half for ninety minutes and there is a chance of stealing a point or more – perhaps courtesy of a JWP special. On the other hand, a typical slow and tentative opening half could prove fatal, allowing the hosts to put the game to bed by the interval. COYI!   

West Ham visit league leaders Brighton in the Saturday evening kick off. Is there another shock result on the cards?

It was a sunny Saturday afternoon in mid-April 2012 when I took my seat in the Bobby Moore Upper (previously the South Bank in old money) looking forward to the game against Brighton, who we had beaten earlier in the season as we pushed for automatic promotion under Sam Allardyce. There were just four games to go as we chased Reading and Southampton who occupied the top two slots. We had been at the top of the Championship throughout much of January and February, but a run of seven draws in nine games had seen us slip down to third.  

The game was a classic right from when Ricardo Vaz Te opened the scoring in the third minute with an explosive shot from outside the area. Vaz Te was in prime form at the time having scored in each of the four games prior to this one, and he scored with a header a few minutes later. Kevin Nolan tapped in an easy third before Vaz Te completed his hat trick in the second half with a stunning overhead kick. A deflected Carlton Cole strike and an own goal completed the scoring as we ran out 6-0 winners.

A draw and two wins followed in the final three games but it wasn’t enough for automatic promotion but there was a happy ending as we defeated Cardiff home and away in the semi-final of the play offs, and then beat Blackpool 2-1 in the Wembley final in May with a very late goal from, yes you know the answer – Ricardo Vaz Te.

Brighton were a decent progressive side and they eventually achieved promotion to the Premier League at the end of the 2016-17 season. That means that they have been in the top division for six seasons now and are just embarking on their seventh. And what a start! Two 4-1 wins sees them at the top of the table (admittedly after just 2 games), with Manchester City and Arsenal the only other sides to take maximum points at this early stage. But, of course we are not far behind (just two points) after our unexpected 3-1 win against big-spending Chelsea last Sunday, and we sit in equal fifth with a win and a draw.

Brighton have continued to improve each season and their sixth-place finish in the last campaign saw them qualify for the Europa League alongside Liverpool and, of course, West Ham. Let’s hope we can avoid them because we can’t beat them! In the twelve games against them in the Premier League since their promotion we have drawn six and lost six.

We have a better home record against them than on our travels to the South Coast. In the six away games we have drawn twice and lost four times, scoring 4 goals and conceding 13. In the six games at the London Stadium we have drawn four and lost twice scoring 8 but letting in 13. In those 12 games Brighton have never failed to score at least one goal against us, four times scoring 3 times and of course they gave us a 4-0 thrashing last season.

What is the secret behind Brighton’s rise to prominence? They have made significant strides due I believe to careful financial and strategic management with prudent decisions regarding recruitment of players and the club structure. They have identified and signed players to fit their playing style. Adaptable tactics and generally the tactical acumen of the manager and coaching staff has allowed the team to compete against the ‘big teams’. Coupled with their focus on youth development via the academy, a passionate support, and the ability to move players on for extraordinary transfer fees whilst replacing them with like for like replacements have been essential ingredients for success.

They don’t have a scattergun approach to player recruitment. They know exactly the types of players they need to fill various positions and then scout them and sign them. I think that they are a superbly run football club that fully deserve their position in the higher reaches of the Premier League.

As for our start to the campaign, would you have been happy with four points and equal fifth in the league after two games? Last season it took us five games to reach the four points mark, and we were still stuck on four after seven games and sitting in the relegation zone at that time at the end of September.

The continuing debate rumbles on amongst our fans on social media. The split between the Moyes lovers and those who’d like to see a different style of play from a forward-thinking coach. At the time of writing we have three significant recruits to the squad in Alvarez, Mavropanos, and the one I like most, Ward-Prowse. We still need more quality signings – at the moment a few names are constantly being banded about, but as always with our club, if there is any truth in any of them then the negotiations do drag on somewhat. I don’t for one moment expect any of those I’ve seen linked to arrive here. In fact as I write this with evening games being played I even read that one of them has scored a hat-trick for his club in the Europa League! Our recruitment of attacking footballers has generally been sketchy with little apparent thought as to their fit to our playing style. And that’s not just in the Moyes era, it goes back way beyond that.

For the time being Paqueta seems to be staying with potential exits for one or two. Who knows until the deals are done and the transfer window slams shut? Why oh why the window cannot shut before a season gets underway is beyond me.

What will happen in our third game of the season? Brighton have scored 13 goals against us at the London Stadium and 13 goals also at the Falmer Stadium. This is our 13th meeting in the Premier League. Will this be unlucky 13? Our opponents must be relishing the thought of playing against a team they never lose to and generally beat. They are around 2/1 on to win the game whereas we are more than 4/1 against. But we had similar underdog odds against Chelsea and look what happened there. Despite having Estupinan, Mitoma and March in my Fantasy Football squad I’ll be hoping they all have a poor week.

The fixtures computer has given us three away games out of the first four fixtures (it’s away at Luton in the next one) which seems a little unkind before the first international break. Will we be heading to the break with four points from four games, or perhaps with ten? It’s time for another shock result. It’s about time we beat the Seagulls. Few expect it to happen. Few expected us to beat Chelsea 3-1, especially at the half-time interval. But we did. Can it happen? We don’t have a chance do we? Do we??

Are West Ham Ready To Bury The Brighton Hoodoo In Saturday’s Seaside Special?

The Hammers have been looking more energetic and purposeful in recent weeks. Is it finally time to overcome the curse of the Seagulls, or will they take a tern for the worse?

It was another encouraging performance from West Ham in midweek even though it ended with the Hammers being dumped out of the FA Cup by Manchester United. The outcome of the game hinged on several critical ‘if only’ moments that allowed the hosts to recover from a goal down and book their place in a very open sixth round.

At the attacking end, it was Michail Antonio who left fans feeling frustrated. First, when he failed to capitalise on a one-v-one situation with David de Gea and later when going for goal when a square pass would surely have led to West Ham extending their one-goal lead. Both incidents illustrated the strength and weakness of Antonio. Using  his pace and power to engineer openings but without the accomplished striker’s finesse to execute effectively.

At the other end, a collective defensive meltdown in the final twenty minutes placed the usually reliable Nayef Aguerd under the spotlight of supporter fury. It is always unfortunate to gift an equaliser through an own goal and this was an unforced error which should have been avoided. Who knows whether the call came from the keeper to claim the ball or not? Clearly it was very poor communication somewhere along the line. After that, the plot was lost, as was the game.

It is not at all surprising that the upturn in performances (as embryonic as it is) comes after a switch to a more solid 4-3-3 formation. If only David Moyes had listened when I first suggested it last October – as if he would read these ramblings! With the change has come greater pressing in midfield areas, more passing options for the player with the ball, and more freedom for the wide attacking players. It is a particularly suitable set-up to get the best from the talents of Declan Rice and Lucas Paqueta.

Tomas Soucek is the latest bête noire of many supporters who would rather see Flynn Downes as the third man in the midfield three. It is understandable from the point of view of ball retention, but Moyes will continue to opt for the aerial presence that Soucek brings to both ends. Without his goals, Soucek is a frustrating player to watch but he does still provide useful defensive cover.

The full-back positions may need to be shuffled today depending on availability. If Vladimir Coufal is available it will be him and Ben Johnson. If not, then Johnson and Emerson Palmieri – Aaron Cresswell was looking particularly rusty when he came on against Forest. Brighton do a lot of attacking down the flanks through March and Mitoma and the game could be won and lost out wide. In the absence of any other options, Aguerd and Angelo Ogbonna will continue as the centre back pairing. Not ideal having two left footers in the middle and Aguerd on the right imposes severe restrictions on his ability to influence forward play.

Danny Ings will return to the front three alongside Jarrod Bowen and Said Benrahma with Antonio and Gianluca Scamacca providing options from the bench. An Ings/ Scamacca axis would be a fascinating prospect but may be difficult to accommodate without going three/ five at the back.

***

Brighton have had a terrific season so far and find themselves well placed for European football next season. They sit in 8th spot in the league, ten points behind Tottenham but with three games in hand. They are also still in the FA Cup having won their 5th round tie on a cold Tuesday night in Stoke. A home draw against Grimsby Town stands between them and a semi-final place.

West Ham could learn a lot from Brighton’s scouting and recruitment model. Signing exciting young players that no-one has heard of – Caicedo, Mac Alister, Mitoma – and introducing them to the Premier League after spells out on loan. It has proved incredibly successful but requires a degree of planning that seems to be a foreign concept at the London Stadium. The Seagulls are an eclectic mix of young talent and unfashionable stalwarts – Dunk, Gross, March – that are always competitive, despite limited firepower up front.

A trip to the seaside is never complete without a seagull trying to steal your chips. And the same is true in football, where Brighton’s Seagulls have become adept at ‘piddling’ on the West Ham chips. No matter what the relative league positions, current form or respective managers, top flight meetings between the clubs invariably end the same way – a Brighton win or a share of the points. I’m suspecting some form of sorcery or gypsy curse is at play. The Hammers only top flight win against Brighton from 15 attempts came in March 1983 with a 2-1 win at Upton Park. The teams that day:

West Ham: Phil Parkes, Ray Stewart (Alan Dickens (1)), Alvin Martin, Joe Gallagher, Frank Lampard, Alan Devonshire, Paul Allen, Geoff Pike, François van der Elst, Tony Cottee (1), Nicky Morgan        

Brighton: Graham Moseley, Steve Foster, Steve Gatting, Chris Ramsey, Gary Stevens, Jimmy Case, Tony Grealish, Neil Smillie, Andy Ritchie, Michael Robinson, Gerry Ryan (1)

I’d completely forgotten about Joe Gallagher’s West Ham career!

Today’s fixture is the first against Brighton since Roberto De Zerbi replaced the soon to be out-of-work Graham Potter. De Zerbi will serving a one-match touchline ban for his red card in his side’s 1 – 0 defeat to Fulham in their most recent home game. I’m not sure how much of a punishment a touchline ban actually is. It seems no more than a symbolic gesture – the equivalent of a player being allowed to play but not allowed to take throw-ins.

Now that I’m feeling a touch more positive about the Hammers credentials for survival, I have decided to reinstate my AI powered match result prediction service. After running the numbers the verdict is: West Ham to rip up the record books with a first ever Premier League victory against the Seagulls by two goals to one. COYI! 

Th(Ings) Can Only Get Better for West Ham

But first we need to improve our record against Brighton

What a difference a proven goalscorer makes! The acquisition of Danny Ings may not totally fit the plan of buying young, hungry players that was mooted a couple of seasons ago, but needs must. The two goals within a minute or so that opened the floodgates against Nottingham Forest weren’t the prettiest, although the first wasn’t one of the easiest to put into the net, but goals are goals and count however they are scored. The lovely strike from Declan Rice only equals Danny Ings’ second goal, however it went into the net.

The performance was much improved as the manager perhaps realised that he was instilling too much caution into the players in previous games. The two goals in quick succession relieved the pressure, and the freedom to express themselves was evident in the final twenty minutes.

A decent performance at Old Trafford on Wednesday followed with an excellently taken goal from Benrahma, and other chances (that a striker / finisher of the calibre of Ings might have put away?) could have put the tie beyond the home side. But unfortunately he was cup tied after turning out for Villa in their defeat to Stevenage in an earlier round. Hopefully he will be back for the trip to the South Coast this weekend.

Aguerd, who has looked so good in recent games, had a nightmare performance. The goal we conceded in the 75th minute when he headed it into his own net, was the first that we have conceded from a corner this season. We were the only team in the Premier League not to have let in a goal in this way in the campaign to date, and it was unfortunate that it came in this way. We were still level as extra time loomed but two late goals from mistakes, Johnson not closing down and Aguerd’s lack of concentration, meant a 3-1 score to the Red Devils that flattered them.

I’m afraid I wasn’t impressed with the ITV coverage of the game. A neutral onlooker on TV would easily have known that Manchester United were playing, but might have struggled to know the name of the opponents. The pre-match and post-match coverage was typical fare in respect of what we can expect from the media I am afraid.

At least there was some consolation on the night with Tottenham going out of the Cup to a Championship side, and Arsenal thrashing Everton plus Liverpool beating Wolves in the league; good results for us in respect of the other clubs involved towards the bottom of the table.

It wasn’t his best night in the end but I feel much happier with Areola in goal. I wonder if he will now get a consistent run in the league games with the unfortunate injury to Fabianski. If he performs well, and I believe he will, I hope that he retains his place once Fabianski is fit again. 

After Wednesday night we now have a game in hand over both Wolves and Everton. It would be good to use this advantage by winning it! An extended run of wins would help us to pull clear of the bottom three. Can we achieve this? The defeat of Forest, good as it was, must be followed up by more good performances and points.

In recent articles I have been analysing the position and current form of the bottom teams. I will continue to concentrate on the bottom nine as Palace in twelfth place are still only six points clear of the relegation zone. The points of the bottom nine (with the number of games remaining in brackets) are:

Palace 27 (14 to play), Forest 25 (14), Leicester 24 (14), Wolves 24 (13), West Ham 23 (14), Leeds 22 (14), Everton 21 (13), Bournemouth 21 (14), Southampton 18 (14).

Our goal difference is significantly superior to the other teams involved (apart from Leicester who are equal in this respect) so that might be worth another point in the final reckoning.

The points gained in the last 5 games are a guide to current form and we have now (at last) moved to the top of this mini-league which is a good sign:

West Ham 8, Leicester 7, Wolves 7, Everton 6, Forest 5, Bournemouth 5, Leeds 4, Palace 4, Southampton 3.

With the bottom six clubs still achieving less than a point a game so far this season, and an average of a point a game equalling fourteenth place in the table at present, and so many clubs potentially involved in the relegation struggle, then I still reckon that a final total of 37 or 38 should be enough to confirm Premier League football next season. That would mean 14 or 15 from those games if my estimate turns out to be correct. Based on current averages then 35 could be enough.

Looking at our remaining fourteen fixtures can you see where the requisite number of points will come from? Five of them are against teams that I have previously identified as being in the bottom nine, so winning (at least not losing) in those fixtures takes on added importance. Five games are against teams in the top six, against whom we have not collected many points in recent times, and the remaining four are against sides in ‘no-mans land’ between 7th and 11th in the table, although Fulham in 7th are level on points with Liverpool (6th), and this weekend’s opponents Brighton (8th) and Brentford (9th) both have games in hand that could push them closer to the top with positive results.

The figures in brackets below are the points that we picked up in the reverse fixtures already played earlier in the season. If we were to replicate those then we would collect another 12 points to take us up to 35. Might that be enough? We would be cutting it fine, so we must therefore hope for more than that I would suggest.

4/3 Away v Brighton (0)

12/3 Home v Villa (3)

19/3 Away v Man City (0)

2/4 Home v Southampton (1)

5/4 Home v Newcastle (1)

8/4 Away v Fulham (3)

16/4 Home v Arsenal (0)

22/4 Away v Bournemouth (3)

26/4 Home v Liverpool (0)

29/4 Away v Palace (0)

6/5 Home v Man Utd (0)

13/5 Away v Brentford (0)

20/5 Home v Leeds (1)

28/5 Away v Leicester (0)

Our performances against Brighton since they were promoted to the top flight do not bode well for this game. This is the sixth season, and in the previous eleven encounters we have not beaten them at all! We have drawn on six occasions and been beaten five times, and have never kept a clean sheet in any of those eleven games. With the increased amount of statistics available these days it has been identified that the opening 15 minutes could be vital in this match. Brighton have scored more goals in this period of the game than any other team in the Premier League so far this season. On the other hand we have yet to score a goal in the first quarter of an hour in any game. Why are we so slow off the mark?

We could really do with improving our record against the Seagulls and this weekend would be a good time to start. Recent history is against us. Can we do it? A point would be good but three would be even better. What are the chances?

West Ham’s Seaside Shuffle Can End The Brighton Hoodoo And Gate-crash The Top Six

As the final curtain is faced, a few lingering regrets remain that more could have been achieved in an otherwise well above average West Ham campaign

If you were in an elevator and someone asked: “what sort of season did West Ham have?” you might reply that while it was well above average, it maybe wasn’t as good as it might have been. A reflection of how our expectations had shifted over the course of the season.

When the season started and with a first ever European league-based campaign to contend with, any top half finish may have been considered a reasonable outcome. Indeed, my own prediction was that West Ham would finish tenth – expecting the routine of Thursday – Sunday football to take its toll on league form.

But by the year end, having breezed through the Europa League group stages, and sitting fifth in the Premier League, the dreams were flying much higher. A shrewd investment here and there at that time and anything might have been possible. That we were left scratching our heads at no January activity is now consigned to Hammer’s folklore.

In hindsight, the club hadn’t recruited well in the summer either. Kurt Zouma was an excellent addition but he turned out to be the only practical upgrade to David Moyes preferred starting eleven. Nikola Vlasic and Alex Kral failed to come anywhere close to the required standard and while Alphonse Areola looked a decent enough deputy, he remained behind Lukasz Fabianski in the pecking order.

From a historic perspective, the season has been well above average, regardless of what happens today. Since the Premier League was reduced to 38 matches, West Ham have only exceeded 56 points (the current total) on three occasions (2020/21, 2015/16 and 1998/99. They have finished with a positive goal difference just twice (2020/21 and 2015/16) and for a side with so few striking options, scoring 59 goals (the current total) has only been bettered in those same two seasons. A win today would bring up a tally of seventeen victories, the highest apart from last season’s nineteen.

Despite that decent win percentage, it is the points dropped against the likes of Leeds, Burnley, Southampton and Brentford and the two avoidable defeats to Manchester United that might ultimately take the wind from the sails. That, plus the self-inflicted failure to get past Frankfurt in the Europa League semi-finals. After a promising first half of the season it is a disappointment not to make it to 60 points. In truth there have been few sparkling performances and too many victories when we ‘weren’t at our best’.

The final day of this year’s Premier League season must be a broadcaster’s dream. It is rare for the title, plus Champions League and relegation places to remain up for grabs on the day the curtain comes down. By comparison, our own battle for 6th or 7th place is consigned to an outlying stage, well away from the main arena. No helicopter hovering over the South Downs ready to deliver the final Europa League qualifying certificate at the final whistle.

Qualifying for the Europa League again would be a massive bonus in that it comes with another route to Champions League qualification. But the Europa Conference should not be sniffed at and may represent the best opportunity the club has next season to end its long overdue silverware drought.

The history of today’s fixture might suggest one of those mysterious gypsy curses that inhabits football. Since Brighton were promoted back to the top-flight in 2017/18, West Ham have failed to beat them in nine attempts – with the last six all ending in scoring draws. It is really no more than coincidence that can easily end today.

The Seagulls are a hardworking and well organised side with several very good players (Trossard, Cucurella, Bissouma, Sanchez) but this season’s home record is less than impressive, with only four wins on the board. Apart from the top three, they have had more possession than any other team but it rarely goes anywhere with only an average of one goal per game to show for it. In theory, such an opponent should be ideal for a West Ham side who thrive on the quick breakaway and have been scoring relatively freely.

As well as our own efforts at the Amex Stadium, though, the Hammer’s fate will also be determined by the the result of Manchester United’s visit to Crystal Palace. Top six hopes may well end up to be pie in the sky – even if the Hammers beat the Seagulls, they need the Eagles to do them a good Tern!

Once the season is over there will be little time for reflection. Transfer speculation is already gathering pace and the frenzy will ramp up even further as the window opening ceremony approaches. I have already counted over thirty players linked with a move to the London Stadium. It will be a telling time for the club owners to demonstrate their ambitions. A time when the squad needs both a refresh and a net increase in quality and numbers.

Until the dust has settled we won’t know if we have witnessed a brief run of overachieving seasons (on the back of several exceptional players and a great team spirit) or whether there is true progress taking place. Is the club moving in the right direction? Without wise investment it will be just another false dawn.

A very big well done to the players, manager, and coaches for a highly satisfactory season and making West Ham massive. Their effort, determination, and commitment cannot be faulted. As for today’s game, West Ham can finally put the Brighton hoodoo to rest with a 2-0 awayday bonanza. COYI!

Can West Ham defeat Brighton for the first time in ten years?

Yet another excellent season for West Ham will end on Sunday when we visit Brighton for the final game. If we can beat them and at the same time if Palace can beat or draw with Manchester United, then we will replicate last season’s sixth place and have another tilt at the Europa League. But if that doesn’t happen, we’ll have to settle for seventh and entry into the Europa Conference. With a squad limited in size that is still some achievement.

We’ve only qualified for European competitions in two successive seasons once before (1964-65 and 1965-66) but that happened as a result of winning the competition in the first season. This time we have qualified as a result of league positions in both campaigns which is unprecedented and fulfils David Moyes (and the fans!) wish to be challenging towards the top regularly. Who would have thought it just two years ago? In May 2020 we hadn’t played for a couple of months, and we were still 4 weeks away from resuming our battle against relegation where we eventually finished 16th in the middle of July.

Before a ball had been kicked this season, I made my traditional predictions as to how the season would pan out. I return to it here. Six out of the top seven finished in the top 7 but my predictions mirrored the Morecambe and Wise sketch with Andre Previn – not necessarily in the right order! Some of my bottom six forecasts were correct but I got quite a few predictions horribly wrong such as Leeds, Everton, Tottenham, Palace and Brentford. 

1. Manchester City, 2. Chelsea, 3. Manchester United, 4. Liverpool, 5. Leicester, 6. West Ham, 7. Arsenal, 8. Leeds, 9. Everton, 10. Tottenham, 11. Aston Villa, 12. Brighton, 13. Wolves, 14. Newcastle, 15. Southampton, 16. Burnley, 17. Norwich, 18. Watford, 19. Crystal Palace, 20. Brentford  

With around a quarter of the season to go I calculated how the teams in the top eight would finish if they maintained their average points for the season to that point in their final fixtures and this was the result:

Man City 92, Liverpool 90, Chelsea 80, Arsenal 73, Tottenham 67, Man Utd 66, West Ham 61, Wolves 58 

At the same time I made my own forecasts of the results in the remaining games and how the top 8 league table might look.

Man City 93, Liverpool 91, Chelsea 83, Arsenal 73, Tottenham 70, West Ham 62, Man Utd 62, Wolves 56 

With just one game left this is how it looks.

Man City 90, Liverpool 89, Chelsea 71, Tottenham 68, Arsenal 66, Man Utd 58, West Ham 56, Wolves 51 

Of the top eight Man City, Liverpool and Tottenham  have performed in the final quarter on a par with their results in the first three quarters of the season whereas the other five have not, including ourselves.

Nevertheless, we can be more than pleased with how this season has turned out whatever happens on the final day. Can we beat Brighton? Since Brighton were promoted to the top flight five years ago the last six fixtures have all ended in score draws, and the three before that were all Brighton victories. We were close to winning the reverse fixture earlier this season but were denied victory by a very late equaliser. I remember the last time we did beat them. Ricardo Vaz Te scored a memorable hat trick in a 6-0 thumping at Upton Park in our promotion winning season ten years ago.

It’s about time we beat them again. I’ll go for a 2-1 West Ham win and Palace to beat Manchester United by the same score to ensure we finish sixth and qualify for the Europa League once again. What are the chances?

Can The Hammers Stroll Past A Brighton B-Side Beside The Seaside? We’ll Have To See!

Tiddely-om-pom-pom! A depleted Brighton side provide the opposition as West Ham look for a seaside shuffle into European qualification.

There may well be special circumstances this season, but it seems very odd (and wrong) to be playing a league game immediately after the FA Cup Final has finished. For so long, Cup Final day was where everything stopped and the outside world went eerily quiet. Weekend chores were set aside early so we could settle down in front of the Grandstand with some tins of Ind Coope Long Life beer and a party pack of Hula Hoops for company.

West Ham players will barely have time to finish tweeting their Cup Final congratulations before kicking-off at the Amex Stadium in a bid to rescue European hopes . Although the top four dream would appear to have slipped tantalisingly out of reach there is still much to play for – a place in the top six and finishing above Tottenham for starters.

It is always tempting to want to blame someone else for your own shortcomings, but it in the end it was three defeats in the last four games that burst the West Ham bubble. That’s not to say a clandestine conspiracy by the sordid six to ensure top four dominance for themselves is out of the question. We still await news of their punishment for breaching Premier League rules!

The thinness of the Hammers squad was ultimately the undoing. Was it ever likely to be strong enough to mount a sustained challenge with the injuries and suspensions? Even in in a normal season, let alone one as compressed as this one has been. A late rush of injuries to key players just became impossible to manage.

For me, the absence of Rice has been the most crucial, particularly in the defeats to Newcastle and Everton. Others may argue that not bringing in a striker in January was the key factor but I do understand the manager’s stance on that one, unless an overseas loan could have been arranged. A permanent deal from the bargain bucket (think Jordan Hugill) would only have made a sizeable hole in the summer’s budget, and for questionable benefit.

The parlous state of the squad is a direct consequence of woeful oversight at Board level for many years. Paying over the odds for unsuitable vanity signings, with lengthy and inflated contracts, and with little or no re-sale value has proved a disastrous strategy. That when there were inspired signings (Payet and Arnautovic), insult was added to injury by allowing them both to leave for well below market value.  At the same time, the academy has been experiencing years of famine.  Aside from the good fortune of picking up Rice when he was rejected by Chelsea, the last academy graduate of any note was James Tomkins.

The game with Everton proved exceptionally frustrating. The Toffees are a notorious bogey-side for the Hammers and once they had been gifted an early goal it was always going to be a struggle to find a way back. It was a typical Everton away performance and the Hammers, not for the first time, lacked the individual flair to unlock a massed and well marshalled defence. The two clear opportunities that did arise, for Said Benrahma and Vladimir Coufal, were left unconverted.

The Everton goal highlighted the weakness still present in centre of the Hammer’s defence. For all his strength, bravery and aerial prowess, Craig Dawson has clear limitations on the ground that explain why he was plying his trade at Watford. Most certainly a decent squad player but not a mainstay for a team hoping to be regular European contenders. With an ageing Angelo Ogbonna, central defence is one more area requiring reinforcements in the summer – along with keeper, left back, striker and, indeed, others.

End of season games can be wildly unpredictable as more teams start to take their foot off the pedal, peruse the travel green list and stock up on Ambre Solaire. With Brighton having secured Premier League safety in the week it will be interesting to see how they react. More so in light of the rush of blood that saw two red cards in their fixture at Wolves last week, leaving them short of a captain and two leading goal scorers.

Brighton under Graham Potter are something of an enigma. It is quite unusual for a club on such a limited budget to strive for attractive possession football. I have been suitably impressed at how comfortable even their lanky defenders are on the ball. It is a lack of goals that has typically let them down. Bissouma and Trossard are very fine players as was Lamptey in the early part of the season before his injury. In seven matches since returning to the top-flight the Seagulls have yet to lose to the Hammers, and have scored every time.

The major hope for today is that it will mark the return of Rice to the midfield. Not only for his own undoubted talent, drive and contribution but also because it releases Tomas Soucek to get further forward. Seeing Ogbonna and Aaron Cresswell on the team sheet would also be an enormous bonus.  Apart from those injury concerns the outstanding call is between Jarrod Bowen and Benrahma for a starting berth. I think it goes to Bowen

As usual the bench will be very light on game changing options. When Andriy Yarmolenko and Ryan Fredericks are your big hopes, it does not auger well.

A big game for the Hammers, less so for the depleted Seagulls. Similar circumstances, perhaps, to when we faced a depleted Swansea at the end of the 2015/6 season and lost 4-1 at home, eventually costing the chance of a top six spot. Hopefully, we are made of sterner tough this time around. If Brighton play their normal possession game it should allow space for the West Ham runners to exploit on the counter attack. In theory, it should make them an ideal opponent. My prediction is that greater desire can break the Brighton duck with a comfortable 3-1 victory.