Tag: #bhawhu

Careful What You Wish For: Is This David Sullivan’s Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Another desperate week sees West Ham pluck defeat from the jaws of victory at Brighton while the head coach goes berserk in his post-match press conference. It’s now seven games without a win for Potter!

And so here we are again. Another game featuring questionable team selection, a shocking first half performance, improvement after the break, baffling substitutions and the sucker punch of a late goal. Topped off this week by our head coach – a student of psychology and emotional intelligence – melting as quickly as a slice of American cheese during his post-match press conference.

Pre-match expectations are increasingly managed these days by the announcement of the teams 75 minutes before kick-off. I had fully expected Graham Potter to fall back on a 3/ 5-man defence for this much anticipated return to Brighton. After all the 4-1 defeat he suffered as Chelsea manager must still have hurt and there was no way he was going to let that happen again.

Having complained that Niclas Fullkrug’s outburst after of the Southampton game had been unhelpful, and that such frank exchanges were best aired in private, Potter made a very public statement by relegating the German to the bench. No amount of denials or flannel about managing the striker’s fitness can disguise the obvious truth, Graham. Will he now drop himself for next week’s match following his own red-faced rant?

Fullkrug’s omission meant it was a switch back to a 3-5-2 formation of sorts, with Jarrod Bowen and Mohammed Kudus taking up narrow forward positions in front of a midfield three of Lucas Paqueta, Tomas Soucek and James Ward-Sideways. The bonus was the return of Aaron Wan-Bissaka to resume his one-man campaign for the Hammer of the Year award.

As ever, the fly in the ointment of the Potter machine are the struggles in midfield. Again constrained by a combination of individual limitations of the players involved and the role asked of them to maintain possession purely for the sake of it. The dilemma (or should that be dullema) is that having played out reluctantly and uncomfortably from the back to beat a high press, the midfield faffs around with the ball for so long that opponents have ample opportunity to retreat and set a second press. The result: no creativity, forward momentum and few scoring opportunities. Like Lopetegui before him, Potter has prioritised a system over the player’s ability to deliver it.

Does that mean we will see improvements once the coach has assembled a squad in his own image? Possibly yes, but how many windows and how many seasons is it going to take to assemble a team capable of competing at the right end of the table? It is a luxury and timescale that is rarely available to Premier League managers in an environment where revenues generated from league position and European competition are crucial to releasing the funds required for effective squad building. A case of forever chasing ones tail.

The high point of an otherwise drab first half at the Amex Stadium was a fine strike by Ayari for Brighton’s opener. As good a goal as it was, it owed much to the Hammer’s failure to put him under pressure. When he received the ball, there were eight West Ham outfield players inside the box but none withing 15 yards of the ball. A token Paqueta challenge was the best on offer.

 Half time saw Fullkrug replace JWP allowing Bowen and Kudus to take wider positions in a 3-4-3. Whether it was the formation and personnel changes or whether it’s just that the team are prepared to try harder after the break is anyone’s guess. The shape certainly looked better. While the performance never convinced consistently, West Ham did contrive to take the lead through goals from Kudus and Soucek. Both courtesy of Bowen assists underlining how more effective he is from wide positions.   

The euphoria was short lived however as two Brighton goals in the closing minutes not only denied the visitors a rare victory but left them empty handed once again. Was it a recurrence of the mentality problem? Were the players astonished – just like the week before – at the weirdness of the late substitution? The increasingly slow Vladimir Coufal brought on to play on his wrong side to fix a problem that didn’t exist. Was the real reason for Potter’s post-match meltdown a case of embarrassment for this managerial masterstroke?

There has been a Pavlovian response this season to blame Dinos Mavropanos for any goal conceded by West Ham – just as Thilo Kehrer was designated scapegoat in the past. I find the Greek not guilty on all charges this week and would go further to suggest that Max Kilman has increasingly developed into the greater worry. But due to negligence rather than obvious gaffes. He may be adept at winning aerial duels when they are directed straight at him, but he rarely attacks the ball or puts his body on the line – in the style of Craig Dawson or James Collins. It’s no surprise that such a casual approach is never a threat in the opposition box at set pieces. We should rightly expect more from a £40m defender who supposedly came with leadership qualities. Oh well, he’s only here for another six years.

The Brighton equaliser was the result of leaving a man completely unmarked at the far post and then allowing Mitoma to nip in unmarked to head home. Leaving Coufal and Kilman looking at each other in bemusement. The winner was another great strike by Baleba who again was given oceans of room to pick his spot as every West Ham player looked on admiringly from in and around their own box.

It’s 14 games now under Potter’s command. That’s no win in seven, and a grand total of 13 points earned and 14 goals scored. It’s long enough to have taken a good look behind the curtain; to get past the bluster, puff and hot air and discover this Potter is no wizard when it comes to coaching football. It’s a long way back from here. The question that has to be asked is whether the broken man seen in the post-match interview has what it takes to front up the challenge.

The consensus is that Potter will be (and should be) given the opportunity to preside over a summer pre-season and transfer window in an attempt to re-model the squad. Estimates vary on how much money is available to do this and who might need to be sacrificed to fill the coffers first. After that his future will be down to results. How ironic to find the club back in the self-same position as the previous summer. Needing to identify, negotiate, recruit and integrate a significant number of new faces – and all the problems that comes with this for a slow-burn manager needing a good start to the season.

If I was the type of person inclined towards conspiracy theories, I might suggest that all of the mayhem surrounding West Ham’s season was a dastardly act of vengeance by the West Ham chairman. In his eyes, his genius had saved the club from oblivion, provided a world class stadium, with a world class team that had delivered a European trophy. Yet the ungrateful supporters demanded entertainment in addition to the opportunity to buy merchandise, subscribe to membership schemes, and enjoy an open-top bus parade. What better way to teach them a lesson and get rid of the unwanted Technical Director (who had been foisted on him by that Czech geezer) than hiring a duff manager of two. That’ll learn them to be careful what they wish for. And show them the Chairman knows best.

I really don’t care about Sullivan’s private life, his choice of hats, or how he earned his (considerable) fortune. But I do care about how is holding back the club at a time of increasing change. Left alone, the club will fall further and further behind. As I have written before, its not that the board hasn’t invested in players – even if they will only ever consider recruiting out of work managers. The problem is that West Ham is run as the owners’ plaything. For prestige and to massage their egos. A glitzy, razmataz, exotic signing will get them moist while the hard work of data analysis, scouting and developing players leaves them cold. Does any other aspiring top club have an enthusiastic but amateur Chairman working in the role of Director of Football. No wonder its a shambles.

Modern day West Ham has abandoned its history and community roots except when it suits for PR purposes. It has no discernible identity and lacks even a half decent strategy for competing against the much richer clubs which dominate the football elite. While the owners will be desperate to preserve Premier League status – and hence the club’s asset value – there lies the limit of their ambitions. Unfortunately, current trajectory will see the Hammers among the favourites for the drop next season. We won’t always be able to rely on all three promoted clubs being rubbish. Sort it out. COYI!    

Graham Potter is currently facing challenges. Can he find the solutions to improve the situation?

Is he experiencing major difficulties, or are there minor issues that need addressing? Did he misjudge the size of the task? Is he up to it? The outcome remains uncertain.

Geoff reviewed our home draw against Southampton earlier this week, a game against a team that was relegated with seven games of the season remaining. I only saw the highlights. We became just the fourth team to fail to beat them on their travels this season after their win at Ipswich and draws at Fulham and Brighton, our opponents this Saturday.

Brighton sits in mid-table (10th) on 48 points and is one of five clubs who will finish between eighth and twelfth. Bournemouth (8th) has 49 points, Fulham and Brighton have 48, Brentford 46, and Palace 45.

The Premier League this season is separated into five distinct groups. The top pair comprises Liverpool and Arsenal. The next group of five (the “nearly teams”) are separated by just four points; Manchester City with 61, Forest 60, Newcastle 59, Chelsea, and Villa both 57.

Well behind the mid-table group are the “real disappointments,” consisting of Everton, Manchester United, Wolves all with 38 points, Tottenham with 37, and ourselves with 36. The three teams promoted last season have not performed well and are on their way back down.

A table I saw recently shows the points tally of each club in the Premier League compared to this stage last season. Everton has the same points as last time, while seven teams are worse off: Wolves (-5), Villa (-6), Arsenal (-8), West Ham (-12), Manchester United (-15), Manchester City (-18), and Tottenham (-23). We are 12 points below where we were at this stage last season, although we finished in the top half (9th). Forest is at the top of this particular table being 28 points better off.

I’ve just been reviewing Graham Potter’s media conference in advance of our trip to Brighton this Saturday. He began with the injury situation confirming Alvarez will still be sidelined with a back injury while Wan-Bissaka should be back. That’s good news.

He said he “understands the fans’ frustrations” at recent results: “We’re not playing how we want to play but to look at the bigger picture, it’s not so straightforward to change things. You have to accept things and be up for the challenge. I want to support the players, who have been brilliant, and we’ll fight together.” So the players have been brilliant eh?

He emphasised that in the games before he arrived (for the last two seasons he probably meant) the team conceded a lot of goals. His inference here was that they have now tightened up at the back and have been competitive. But not successful it seems.

When asked about our habit of conceding late goals, Potter said: “It’s a number of factors. It’s very complicated. When we came in, we were conceding early goals, and now it’s late goals, but it’s very tough for very different reasons.” What kind of answer was that!

Potter was also asked about Fullkrug’s comments afterlast weekend’s draw: “Sometimes you have to understand that after a game, everyone’s emotional. It should be that way, but when you’re a leader you have to accept the emotion and put things in perspective. Niclas wears his heart on his sleeve and he’s entitled to his opinion. For me, it’s better to have conversations in private. You have to be able to be honest and to think about the team as well.” I think he was saying (in a roundabout way) that he wasn’t too pleased!

These pre-match media conferences often feature responses that may seem bland.

I do wish Potter success and a productive transfer window. He has faced challenges since arriving at London Stadium, but it remains to be seen how his tenure will progress.

Never Mind The Invincibles, Meet The Impenetrables: 5 Takeaways From West Ham’s Win At Brighton

Another 3-1 to the cockney boys. What did we learn as West Ham put a decisive end to the Brighton hoodoo?

We’re Sitting On Top of The Table

Well, it looks like the title is shaping up to be a two-horse race. A tactical battle between England’s two reigning European champions. I hadn’t expected the Hammers to hit the front so early and we can only hope they don’t bottle it like Arsenal did last season. All that is needed to make it the perfect bank holiday weekend is for those friendly Blades to derail the Manchester City charge when the two teams meet at Bramall Lane. The Hammers can then spend a week looking forward to Fantastic Friday with an away win at Luton, exciting deadline day signings, and a favourable Europa League group stage draw.  

Brighton Owned By Minimalist Possession

In the age of deep thinking, philosophical football coaches, David Moyes’ post-minimalist approach to possession could easily be misinterpreted as a retrospective pastiche of a lost and forgotten game😉Perhaps it will come back in fashion like cardigans and Oxford bags. Many supporters are conflicted by the style of play but when it works so clinically, and you see a game plan executed brilliantly (against a team you never beat), then what’s not to like? We should be buzzing! It was the right tactics for the occasion and until the Hammer’s legs tired late on, Brighton could find no way through. In the goal, at the back and through the middle, West Ham were the “Impenetrables”. But unlike last season when attempts at attacking pizazz had gone missing, bodies were suddenly getting into the box quickly in support of counterattacks. The statistic of just 13 completed passes in the opening 30 minutes is one best brushed under the carpet of success – for now!

Smells Like Team Spirit

The most striking takeaway from two unexpected wins in seven days has been the obviously outstanding team spirit. An unbreakable bond seems to have been carried over from the Europa Conference triumph. It hadn’t been transferred to Arsenal as an add-on to the Rice deal after all. There may have been individual stand-out moments in the game, but every player gave their all for the cause. Resilience and commitment aren’t coached on the training ground but come from the heart. Well done, the team! It’s so far, so good with the new recruits as well. Edson Alvarez put in a great shift patrolling in front of the back four and dropping back into it when required. He should have been replaced before he was as his legs had clearly gone by the time of the Brighton goal. And what a introduction to West Ham for James Ward-Prowse. Great to see him get forward so quickly and to poach his first Hammer’s goal. Shame about the half-hearted golf swing celebration – that one was hooked straight into the rough.  

The Goal As A Thing Of Beauty

Occasionally, you will see a goal conceived in joy and performed at leisure. Where artistry and elegance meet simplicity. And so it was with West Ham’s second yesterday. Michail Antonio picking up the ball deep in his own defensive third. A stroked pass to Said Benrahma along the left wing. Benny, composed and aware, picking the ideal moment to deliver as runners sprinted into the penalty area. The cross inch perfect, sublimely controlled first time by Jarrod Bowen and stroked into the corner of the net. Precision and perfection – and reminiscent of a goal Liverpool scored against us a year or so ago. The 3rd goal was almost (but not quite) as good. This time Bowen playing in Antonio to drive home.

West Ham’s Number One

Yesterday was probably the day that Alphonse Areola finally made the number one gloves his personal property. Not particularly over-worked in the first half (and guilty of one very messy fumble) he came into his own in the closing minutes with a spectacular demonstration of shot stopping. Reflex saves from Veltman and Ferguson were from the very top drawer. The TV director unkindly zooming in on the rueful gaze of Lukasz Fabianski sitting on the bench. A special mention also for Benrahma. Pablo Fornals had seemed the obvious choice to replace the battered Tomas Soucek, but the choice of Benny did not disappoint. One of his most assured performances in the claret and blue.  

Player Ratings: Areola (9), Coufal (7), Zouma (8), Ogbonna (7), Emerson (7), Alvarez (7), Ward-Prowse (8), Soucek (6), Paqueta (8), Bowen (8), Antonio (8) Sub: Benrahma (8)

The Annual Ritual Seaside Slaughter: Can West Ham Finally Stem The Brighton Tide?

The patron saint of lost causes daren’t look as West Ham contemplate further humiliation against league leaders and bogey team Brighton. Will the spell finally be broken?

For as long as I can remember, groups of young men have travelled down from London to Brighton on a bank holiday weekend to receive a good kicking. In the old days it was mods against rockers, today it is Hammers versus Seagulls.

West Ham’s Brighton hoodoo is a Premier League oddity which has been overseen by three different managers at each club. The 12 encounters since the Seagulls won promotion to the Premier League show a symmetrical 3-6-3 pattern – three defeats, followed by six draws, followed by the latest run of three defeats. Since David Moyes return to West Ham, he has taken only four points from seven games against the south coast club.

Reports from the West Ham training ground this week picked up a burst of unusual activity with full match highlights of last season’s Brighton versus Everton encounter being broadcast on 24/7 repeat. Nothing would represent the holy grail of Moyesball better than a 5-1 away victory with 22% possession. A repeat of that for West Ham today would surely be Manager of the Month material.

To be fair, the season has started in an unexpected positive vein for Moyes team. They have already surpassed the number of points I had anticipated from the opening six games, even if there has been no discernible improvement in the style of play on show. Four points and four goals from two games is not to be sneezed at. But, the stats for possession and completed passes continue to lag well behind all other teams in the league (or at least those who had completed two games after last weekend’s round of matches).

Moyes may well take the view that the ends justify the means. His caution may have cost two points at Bournemouth but probably won three in the derby victory over Chelsea – a win which generated far more prestige than beating the Cherries would.

Still, it is early days and great things are still possible from the transfer window – if the club finally gets it act together. The current scientific classification for a slow-moving phenomenon is now officially standardised as tortoise, slug, tectonic plates, West Ham player recruitment. However, exciting names continue to be linked with increasing intensity as the window enters its final week. There is an apparent high degree of confidence that Mohammed Kudus will be the next recruit to pass through the London Stadium doors. It would be a cracking signing if it comes off.

Tim Steidten has really started to make his mark in the role of Technical Director although the tension between Premier League experience (Maguire, Lingard) and exciting potential (Kudus, Ekitike) will still be rumbling along below the surface. Steidten has emerged as a transfer man of action and I have this image of snatch squad stalking the backstreets of Europe. A sack over the head of his potential target, bundled into van, whisked off to a disused war-time airfield and flown to an abandoned warehouse in Bow until contracts are signed. Guy Ritchie could do a decent job with that.

Today’s opponents, Brighton, are the gold standard of unearthing a production line of precocious talent at minimal cost. Hard to believe that 25 years ago they almost dropped out of the football league. Under the management of Graham Potter and then Roberto De Zerbi they have demonstrated an excellent balance between organisation and freedom of expression on the pitch that Hammer’s fans have been unable to enjoy. De Zerbi having added goals to supplement the Seagulls fondness for possession.

On paper, the Brighton team looks much weakened from the side who finished in sixth place last season. The loss of Mac Allister and Caicedo for big money and the end of Colwill’s loan must have been disruptive. Yet they have started the new campaign at a canter and currently lead the table with a 100% record and eight goals from two games played.

But as well as a willingness to put trust in young talent, the Seagulls also have a core of older unsung heroes in the from of Solly March, Lewis Dunk and Pascal Gross. Today, they may even have the 67-year-old James Milner wheeled out at right back.

Key to Brighton’s rise has been the ability to buy low and sell on at a profit to unsuspecting big spending opponents. Players who have looked sublime in the blue and white stripes invariably becoming substandard when pulling on their Chelsea strips. It’s almost as if the shirts have supernatural, magical powers capable of enchanting buyers with more money than sense. None of Maupay, Bissouma, Trossard, and especially Cucurella have rocked once away from Brighton. Will the same fate befall Mac Allister and Caicedo?

Since last weekend’s win over Chelsea, the Hammers have added Konstantinos Mavropanos to their ranks. A minor injury, however, means we must wait a while longer to enjoy a taste of Athens – West Ham’s first ever Greek player. With Nayef Aguerd serving a one match suspension, I expect Angelo Ogbonna to be the only change from the eleven that started on Sunday.

Even Lucas Paqueta didn’t see Aguerd’s second yellow card coming, and all is now quiet on any potential move for the flamboyant Brazilian, pending the upcoming FA enquiry. The Daily Mail have really got the bit between their teeth over the betting scandal story, even going as far as sending their fearless reporters to Paqueta Island to investigate. It is a little-known fact that Paqueta is the first Premier League player to have his own island since Gareth Barry.

So, what can we expect from today’s game? A further dose of the extreme and excessive caution that we saw from West Ham last week would be no surprise. But Brighton will not fall into the same trap as Chelsea did of relying solely on crosses to launch attacks. Their trademark is to pass and dribble through the middle. While the Hammer’s defence are comfortable making clearances and heading the ball away all afternoon, they are less adept at dealing with pacy runners. The encouraging news is that Julio Enciso may have to sit out the game due to injury, but that still leaves the fleet footed Kaoru Mitoma to put the West Ham rearguard to the sword.

If the Hammers are to finally put an end to the Brighton jinx they will need all the resilience and determination on show last week. Play like they did in the second half for ninety minutes and there is a chance of stealing a point or more – perhaps courtesy of a JWP special. On the other hand, a typical slow and tentative opening half could prove fatal, allowing the hosts to put the game to bed by the interval. COYI!   

Can The Hammers Stroll Past A Brighton B-Side Beside The Seaside? We’ll Have To See!

Tiddely-om-pom-pom! A depleted Brighton side provide the opposition as West Ham look for a seaside shuffle into European qualification.

There may well be special circumstances this season, but it seems very odd (and wrong) to be playing a league game immediately after the FA Cup Final has finished. For so long, Cup Final day was where everything stopped and the outside world went eerily quiet. Weekend chores were set aside early so we could settle down in front of the Grandstand with some tins of Ind Coope Long Life beer and a party pack of Hula Hoops for company.

West Ham players will barely have time to finish tweeting their Cup Final congratulations before kicking-off at the Amex Stadium in a bid to rescue European hopes . Although the top four dream would appear to have slipped tantalisingly out of reach there is still much to play for – a place in the top six and finishing above Tottenham for starters.

It is always tempting to want to blame someone else for your own shortcomings, but it in the end it was three defeats in the last four games that burst the West Ham bubble. That’s not to say a clandestine conspiracy by the sordid six to ensure top four dominance for themselves is out of the question. We still await news of their punishment for breaching Premier League rules!

The thinness of the Hammers squad was ultimately the undoing. Was it ever likely to be strong enough to mount a sustained challenge with the injuries and suspensions? Even in in a normal season, let alone one as compressed as this one has been. A late rush of injuries to key players just became impossible to manage.

For me, the absence of Rice has been the most crucial, particularly in the defeats to Newcastle and Everton. Others may argue that not bringing in a striker in January was the key factor but I do understand the manager’s stance on that one, unless an overseas loan could have been arranged. A permanent deal from the bargain bucket (think Jordan Hugill) would only have made a sizeable hole in the summer’s budget, and for questionable benefit.

The parlous state of the squad is a direct consequence of woeful oversight at Board level for many years. Paying over the odds for unsuitable vanity signings, with lengthy and inflated contracts, and with little or no re-sale value has proved a disastrous strategy. That when there were inspired signings (Payet and Arnautovic), insult was added to injury by allowing them both to leave for well below market value.  At the same time, the academy has been experiencing years of famine.  Aside from the good fortune of picking up Rice when he was rejected by Chelsea, the last academy graduate of any note was James Tomkins.

The game with Everton proved exceptionally frustrating. The Toffees are a notorious bogey-side for the Hammers and once they had been gifted an early goal it was always going to be a struggle to find a way back. It was a typical Everton away performance and the Hammers, not for the first time, lacked the individual flair to unlock a massed and well marshalled defence. The two clear opportunities that did arise, for Said Benrahma and Vladimir Coufal, were left unconverted.

The Everton goal highlighted the weakness still present in centre of the Hammer’s defence. For all his strength, bravery and aerial prowess, Craig Dawson has clear limitations on the ground that explain why he was plying his trade at Watford. Most certainly a decent squad player but not a mainstay for a team hoping to be regular European contenders. With an ageing Angelo Ogbonna, central defence is one more area requiring reinforcements in the summer – along with keeper, left back, striker and, indeed, others.

End of season games can be wildly unpredictable as more teams start to take their foot off the pedal, peruse the travel green list and stock up on Ambre Solaire. With Brighton having secured Premier League safety in the week it will be interesting to see how they react. More so in light of the rush of blood that saw two red cards in their fixture at Wolves last week, leaving them short of a captain and two leading goal scorers.

Brighton under Graham Potter are something of an enigma. It is quite unusual for a club on such a limited budget to strive for attractive possession football. I have been suitably impressed at how comfortable even their lanky defenders are on the ball. It is a lack of goals that has typically let them down. Bissouma and Trossard are very fine players as was Lamptey in the early part of the season before his injury. In seven matches since returning to the top-flight the Seagulls have yet to lose to the Hammers, and have scored every time.

The major hope for today is that it will mark the return of Rice to the midfield. Not only for his own undoubted talent, drive and contribution but also because it releases Tomas Soucek to get further forward. Seeing Ogbonna and Aaron Cresswell on the team sheet would also be an enormous bonus.  Apart from those injury concerns the outstanding call is between Jarrod Bowen and Benrahma for a starting berth. I think it goes to Bowen

As usual the bench will be very light on game changing options. When Andriy Yarmolenko and Ryan Fredericks are your big hopes, it does not auger well.

A big game for the Hammers, less so for the depleted Seagulls. Similar circumstances, perhaps, to when we faced a depleted Swansea at the end of the 2015/6 season and lost 4-1 at home, eventually costing the chance of a top six spot. Hopefully, we are made of sterner tough this time around. If Brighton play their normal possession game it should allow space for the West Ham runners to exploit on the counter attack. In theory, it should make them an ideal opponent. My prediction is that greater desire can break the Brighton duck with a comfortable 3-1 victory.

On Saturday West Ham visit the Seagulls on the South Coast

We thought it was all over ………. It probably is, but not quite yet!

My first visit to Upton Park was in November 1958. Since then I’ve watched West Ham live many hundreds of times. I have been a season ticket holder for many years and for virtually all the last 60 plus years I’ve seen the majority of our home games plus some trips to away grounds too. Of course times have been very strange for the last year or more and the last time I was there to see us play at the London Stadium was on Leap Years Day 2020 when we comfortably beat Southampton 3-1.

Do you remember that cold sunny day? Jarrod Bowen made the starting eleven for the first time and celebrated by opening the scoring. Southampton equalised in the first half, but shortly before half time Haller jumped for Antonio’s up and under with McCarthy (the Southampton keeper) who made an absolute mess of it, and Haller was able to score from a tight angle. Antonio broke away to score the third in the second half and might have had a fourth after a superb rabona from Haller sent him clear. Fornals provided the assists for the first and third goals, and the result moved us out of the bottom three on goal difference.

That is the sum total of my memory of my last experience seeing West Ham live, and little did I think that in the following season I would not be able to see them at all except on TV. But I had a glimmer of hope due to the easing of restrictions which allow 10,000 fans at the London Stadium for the final game of this superb campaign against Southampton on Sunday week. But my hopes were dashed with the following correspondence from the club on Wednesday:

“Unfortunately, you’ve not been successful in the Southampton ticket ballot. However in the event that a supporter can no longer attend, we may be in touch to share an opportunity to attend. We appreciate your continued support and look forward to welcoming you to London Stadium soon.”

Oh well the odds were 5/1 against so all I can do now is look forward to August to take the Central Line to Stratford for the first time in around 18 months. Hopefully all restrictions will have been lifted by then? Of course despite not visiting the ground I have probably seen more West Ham games this season than ever before, all of them in fact thanks to all games being shown live on TV. At least that has been some consolation in a season where we have surpassed all expectations and with three games to go are still very much in with a chance of qualification for Europe next season, even a tiny chance of a top four place.

As the season enters the final eight days, mathematically there are still eight teams involved in the quest for the top four, and the remaining fixtures of those (excluding the two Manchester clubs who are already there) are set out below. Losing three of our last four games means that our chances are now extremely slim, and both Everton and Tottenham’s hopes are even more remote, but I am still hoping for a storming finish and three wins to make it a record breaking season. Manchester United’s congested fixture schedule with ten changes in their team for the game in their midweek defeat to Leicester didn’t help us either!

Both Chelsea and Leicester only have two games to go but face each other in midweek which guarantees either at least one point for each, or alternatively three for the winner. But Arsenal’s surprising win over Chelsea on Wednesday has raised our hopes again. If Chelsea had beaten Arsenal then we might have had the situation where both Leicester and Chelsea would have been happy to settle for a draw next Tuesday but this is unlikely to be the case now. Everton’s draw with Villa yesterday evening was another bonus for us. They can now only reach 65 points at best (like Tottenham) and have the worst goal difference of all the teams involved.

But Liverpool’s win at Manchester United last night was a real body blow though. How different it might have been if Manchester United had anything to play for in their last couple of games played?

Leicester (66 points, Goal Difference 21, 2 games to go) – Chelsea (Tues), Tottenham (Sun) – maximum points possible 72.

Chelsea (64 points, Goal Difference 22, 2 games to go) – Leicester (Tues), Villa (Sun) – maximum points possible 70.

Liverpool (60 points, Goal Difference 20, 3 games to go) – West Brom (Sun), Burnley (Weds), Palace (Sun) – maximum points possible 69.

West Ham (58 points, Goal Difference 10, 3 games to go) – Brighton (Sat), West Brom (Weds), Southampton (Sun) – maximum points possible 67.

Tottenham (56 points, Goal Difference 20, 3 games to go) – Wolves (Sun), Villa (Weds), Leicester (Sun) – maximum points possible 65

Everton (56 points, Goal Difference 4, 3 games to go) – Sheffield United (Sun), Wolves (Weds), Manchester City (Sun) – maximum points possible 65.

We are still in a position whereby we need to depend on the (extremely unlikely) results of others whilst attempting to get maximum points in our remaining three games. That would take us to 67 points, and in view of the goal differences, Leicester only need one point to achieve that, and Chelsea need three. Liverpool need seven from their last three games to match our maximum possible points total and you wouldn’t bet against them winning all three to end on 69. But if we can do our bit and beat Brighton and West Brom then we could still go into the final game of the season with an outside chance of finishing in the top four.

At that point we would be on 64 points. If Leicester beat Chelsea then the Foxes would be out of reach but we could still finish above Chelsea if we won the final game and Chelsea failed to beat Villa. If Chelsea draw with Leicester, then they would still need to beat Villa to go above us. And if Chelsea beat Leicester then we could finish ahead of Leicester if Tottenham beat them on the final day. I’m not sure what result I’m hoping for in that game!

But all of these scenarios are irrelevant if we don’t win all three of our final fixtures. It would be quite remarkable if we went into the final day of the season still with a chance of finishing in the top four, but it has still been a fantastic season when you consider that it is still a possibility, however remote, with just eight days of the season remaining. If we win all three games then we are guaranteed to finish at least sixth. But Liverpool, with their relatively easy final three fixtures, should be the team who will be the most likely to sneak into the top four if Leicester and Chelsea slip up.  

Unfortunately the performance against Everton was a little lacklustre, and fine margins like the inside of the post, and a possible penalty when Antonio was bundled over, made the difference. Brighton have been a bogey side in recent times and now that they are mathematically safe (they were already OK in reality) means that they can play with freedom from pressure, so this game won’t be an easy one.  

With three wins a fourth place finish is still a possibility (but extremely remote). But we will need some unlikely results elsewhere for it to happen. Three defeats and we could even finish as low as tenth! I’m hoping for the former and not even contemplating the latter. I guess that in the end it may be somewhere in between? Sixth? What are the chances?