Czech Complete: Moyes Certain To Give Soucek The Nod For West Ham Trip To Aston Villa

Waking from the slumbers of another international break, West Ham’s good recent record at Villa Park takes on Aston Villa’s phenomenal run of straight home wins.

It was sad to hear the news that Manchester United and England legend Bobby Charlton had died. He was undoubtedly one of the greatest and best-known English footballers of all time who stood alongside Bobby Moore and Gordon Banks as the truly outstanding players from England’s 1966 World Cup winning team. A sign of time’s relentless passage is that Sir Geoff Hurst is now the sole survivor from the eleven that took the field for England in July 1966. Out of interest, their West German opponents have fared rather better as far as longevity is concerned with six out of the eleven still with us.

Much has changed in football since 1966 when international games were few and far between. There were, of course, the hotly contested Home Internationals but opportunities for a glimpse of more exotic players such as Pele, Eusebio, Yashin, and Beckenbauer were rare. Now we can see most of the world’s top stars in our own league on a weekly basis – at least when it isn’t being interrupted by bothersome international breaks. Surely, there must be a less disruptive way of scheduling the growing number of often pointless qualifying matches. Perhaps others are more excited by international games than I am.

The absence of any domestic action has not meant any let up in the stream of West Ham related news from the pesky clickbait sites who provide a daily blast of latest tittle-tattle allegedly emanating from sources close to the Chairman, reliable journalists, and rent-a-quote pundits. The internet abhors a vacuum and although the head is telling you the story will be a load of old of hogwash, the fingers can’t resist clicking anyway.

As a public service – in case you missed any of it – the summary of the highlights is as follows: West Ham are either in pole position to sign any number of new players in the January transfer window, or the kitty is empty and there are no further funds to spend until the summer; David Moyes must drop Vladimir Coufal due to his poor pass completion rate for the Czech Republic against Albania while Tomas Soucek was either their best or worst player on the pitch when the Czechs saw off the mighty Faroes courtesy of his second half penalty; the Hammers are enjoying an excellent start to the season or else they are in a false position due to an eXpected Goals anomaly (as Richard reported here yesterday); and the West Ham Board will or won’t be offering David Moyes a new contract at the end of the season.

There’s a strong chance that the manager situation will rumble on right until the end of the season. The unexpectedly positive start to the campaign has seen Moyes recover from everyone’s favourite for the sack to become the holder of one of the safer seats. Which way the dust finally settles on his West Ham career may well depend on what happens between now and May. With a better squad of players available his team are looking far more assured, but as someone commented on a previous article here, “Moyes will always be Moyes”. His unshakeable caution constraining momentum by having one foot touching the brake at all times. The question is not whether Moyes is doing OK but is there someone out there who can achieve more with the same resources.

Today the Hammers begin a run of seven games in 21 days (less an hour for when the clocks go back) with a visit to Aston Villa. At the end of that phrenetic sequence comes yet another International Break.

Villa Park has been something of a happy hunting ground for West Ham in recent years and a win today would make it four on the trot. Yet the hosts are now a very different proposition today to Steven Gerrard’s erratic team who gifted the Hammers their first win last season.

Villa’s home form has been particularly strong since Unai Emery’s appointment in November 2022. They go into today’s match on a ten game Villa Park winning streak in the league. But all records come to an end eventually and it may as well be today. Hopefully, the Villains will put in a performance closer to what was on show at Newcastle and Liverpool earlier in the campaign. Here they were more like Dick than Unai Emery – they really were that awful. On both occasions the tactics were naïve, allowing their opponents far too much space between the lines and with a suicidal high defensive line that was forever vulnerable to balls over the top. They do seem to have plenty of goals in them this season though and both Watkins and Diaby are likely to be a handful.

The big debating point for the Hammers is whether Mohammed Kudus gets a start today or not? Spoiler alert – the answer is not! His introduction for the last 15 minutes of the 2-2 draw with Newcastle was mesmerising. Great touch, control, flair, confidence, and a goal were all packaged into a quarter of an hour cameo. Moyes has said that he is close to a start which is not so subtle code for him being on the bench. A long round trip to North America will serve as convenient justification. Personally, I can’t wait to see a few games with Kudus and Lucas Paqueta weaving unorthodox magic in the claret and blue, but it probably makes the manager dizzy just thinking about it.

Reading and listening to the thoughts of fans on who Kudus might replace in the starting lineup is fascinating. There are two main schools of thought. One that he should replace Thomas Soucek, the other that he should replace Michail Antonio. The idea that Moyes will disrupt his defensive shape and leave out Soucek seems fanciful to me, especially now that he is back in his old role, looking more motivated, and scoring goals again. He is the complete Moyes type player and I’m convinced he remains one of the first names on the team sheet where the manager is beguiled by defensive headers, interceptions and aerial threat at set pieces.

Kudus as a replacement for Antonio sounds more credible. Not as a direct replacement but requiring juggling in other positions. I had fancied Jarrod Bowen moving to the centre and Kudus playing wide right, but during games when Antonio has been subbed it is Paqueta who has been pushed further forward. Can Kudus and Paqueta playing as a pair of false nines be the Moyesiah’s great innovation? There is an irony that Kudus may finally get his chance if/ when Paqueta receives a one math ban for picking up his fifth yellow card.  Whichever way this pans out, the clear inference is that Danny Ings doesn’t look to feature in any plans for Premier League football.

This is another tough game to call between two teams who will be competing in Europe in midweek. Victory for either side will leave them in the top six and there are sure to be goals in this game. Emery’s Villa don’t really do draws so I will go for 2-2. COYI!

West Ham’s first Claret and Blue Derby of the season is a visit to Aston Villa for the televised game on Sunday

Someone said to me this week that watching football in the Premier League is like watching ITV. What he was getting at was that the season is barely underway with just eight games gone and there have already been two international breaks. He’d prefer the Premier League to be modelled on the BBC and have no breaks. I could see his point as I don’t like the breaks myself, especially so early in the season, barely giving teams the opportunity to get into a rhythm or build momentum. I don’t really mind the breaks on commercial television though. These days with Smart TVs and a host of features you don’t have to watch anything live. You can arrange to fast forward through advertisements, or even use the gaps to get a drink or have a toilet break if you wish.

Of course if you are a fan of rugby union or 50-over cricket there are World Cups in both in progress at the moment so that takes the edge off missing your weekly dose of Premier League football. Having said that it was no fun to watch England capitulate to Afghanistan in the cricket, although the England rugby team have progressed well, partly as a result of a favourable draw. They’ll be doing well to get past South Africa this weekend though.

But I’m glad to say that Premier league football is back and we are away to Villa in the TV match at 4.30 on Sunday afternoon. That won’t be an easy fixture either. Villa have progressed enormously since we won on their ground early last season with Pablo Fornals’ deflected goal. Having said that, we too have made significant strides in this campaign and after eight games sit just two points and two places below them. They have lost twice (as we have) but they have won five and drawn once compared to our four wins and two draws.

They suffered heavy defeats to both Newcastle and Liverpool and were (surprisingly?) dumped out of the EFL Cup losing at home to Everton. After qualifying for the group stage of the Europa Conference (8-0 on aggregate v Hibernian) they have won one and lost one of the group games.

I was interested to read an article on the BBC Sport website this week assessing how Premier League teams have started the season. Recent years have seen the proliferation of statistics in football, and whilst I am not totally averse to some of them, there is one that really gets to me and that is expected goals (xg).

The article quite rightly pointed out that results are what matter most, but it went on to say that “taking a look at teams expected goals numbers can help us see how much permanent class they’ve shown so far and get an idea of how the rest of their season could pan out”. It went on to say that “comparing teams actual goal difference with their expected one we can see whose foundations for the season are built on stone and whose are built only on sand.” What a load of …..

Their ”form v class – gd v xGD” graphic had Newcastle and Manchester City at the top of the tree. Not for me I’m afraid. The last time I looked at the league table Tottenham and Arsenal led the way, both unbeaten. Manchester City have lost two games and Newcastle three out of just eight and sit below us in the table.

The conclusion concerning West Ham was that “early-season enthusiasm might be a bit premature with the Hammers outperforming their expected goals more than any other side.”

I’ll concede that expected goals may have some value in football analysis but let’s not go over the top. One of the games in the Premier League this season was won by 6-1. It involved our opponents this weekend hammering Brighton. But which team came out on top in expected goals (xG)? That’s right – Brighton.

Expected goals has so many limitations. The sample size, number of games played and strength of opponents when doing analysis after just eight games might not reflect true ability. What about the specific context of a match, such as the scoreline, the time remaining, the importance of the game, all of which can significantly impact the likelihood of scoring?

xG doesn’t account for the skill and performance of goalkeepers which can vary widely. A top keeper may save shots that would be goals against others. xG doesn’t measure the level of defensive pressure faced. A player facing intense defensive pressure may have a lower chance of converting a high xG opportunity.

What about the skill level of the attacker? A highly-skilled striker might convert low xG chances more often than one with lesser skills. xG is based on historical data so it might not account for players who can score in unconventional ways or from unexpected positions.

xG doesn’t differentiate between set-piece situations and open-play chances. Set pieces often have different dynamics and conversion rates. As West Ham fans in recent times we are well aware of this.

Football is inherently unpredictable, and even high xG chances can be missed and low xG chances can be converted. I could go on. Let’s not go overboard about xG. Just as a team with the highest percentage of possession will not necessarily come out on top in a game of football the same is true for the xG statistics.

Similarly past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance in terms of results. The fact that David Moyes is unbeaten in his last 14 games against Aston Villa has no real bearing on what will happen at Villa Park on Sunday afternoon. It is a piece of information that surprised me when I read it though.

We are unbeaten in our last five visits to Villa Park in the Premier League, winning the most recent three by 1-0, 4-1 and 3-1 scorelines. Pablo Fornals got the only goal at Villa Park last season and has a good record of scoring against them. Will that have any importance in the manager’s team selection for this game? Probably not.

With 13 points from their last six games Villa are one of the form teams in the Premier League with only Tottenham and Arsenal at the top of the table with better form records than that. Having said that only the top 5 teams can better our impressive haul of ten points in our last six games.

It will be a difficult game. I really don’t care about xG but I hope we can continue our early season form with at least a point and hopefully three. I am loving the players bought to replace Rice this season. Alvarez, Kudus and especially Ward-Prowse have really settled well and Paqueta has shown why he is a regular starter for Brazil (until recently of course!). We still have a way to go, and are light in some positions, but squad-wise we are as healthy as we have been for a while. What are the chances of three points?

The Thriller At The Villa. Hammers Looking To Extend Amazing Awayday Advantage

Unbeaten on the road for over six months, the West Ham tour bus rocks up in Birmingham to face a faltering Aston Villa

The two big domestic transfer stories during the summer were the prospective moves of Tottenham’s Harry Kane and Aston Villa’s Jack Grealish to the money-no-object ranks of Premier League champions, Manchester City. As we know, only one of these transfers came about when the Kane move was blocked when the selling club’s Chairman failed to honour an alleged gentleman’s agreement.

In a week where West Ham encountered each of the three clubs involved in those sagas it is interesting to reflect on how they worked out for all concerned.

Peak schadenfreude has almost been reached from the dramas currently playing out in N17. Getting one over on the old rivals, as we did last week, is always sweet, and to see it followed up with another pitiful performance yesterday has been spectacular. From self-styled European Super League heavyweights to crisis Premier League makeweights in the blink of an eye. Riddled with debt, saddled with an unsuitably dull manager and a group of players who look like they would rather be anywhere else, the situation is priceless. If Daniel Levy thought he had a gentleman’s agreement requiring Harry Kane to ‘give a toss’ during the remainder of his enforced stay, he now knows he was very much mistaken. Kane’s work-to-rule is a reminder that it is the players who now have the upper hand.

Few would be surprised to see Kane heading up north to the Etihad once the new year sales start. It is quite remarkable that despite the richness of their resources, Manchester City have even fewer strikers than West Ham. The Hammers gave an excellent defensive performance in midweek to finally put an end the visitor’s League Cup domination. But City do appear a lot less threatening at the moment, even if you know they will dominate the ball for long periods. For all Guardiola’s presumed tactical genius, his players recruitment has been very hit and miss. Hopefully, none of that is down to Rob Newman.

Ultimately, league cup success came down to a tense penalty shootout with Phil Foden wayward attempt being the sole failure. Does anyone look more like a ‘Manc’ than Foden? If he fails to get over his spot kick miss, there is a role in the remake of the Royle Family waiting. Huge congratulations to all the West Ham penalty takers for holding their nerve in the shootout. A quarter final tie at Tottenham now awaits.

The one who, of course, got away in the summer was the big money transfer of Grealish to Manchester City. Not sure he has yet provided value at City but as Villa’s talisman and overwhelming creative force, he has been a tough act to follow. The cash was quickly used to bring in three big money signings – Danny Ings, Leon Bailey, and Emiliano Buendia – but attempts to shoehorn them into an effective formation has so far proved to be a struggle. The Ings/ Watkins partnership looks formidable on paper but has yet to take off. Hopefully, it will remain grounded again today.

Things have rarely been better at West Ham. To the extent that I worry they may be going too well. Has David Moyes sold his soul to the devil in return for seven wishes. Will it all fall apart when the wishes run out?

It is an unfamiliar feeling approaching any game with a high degree of positivity – an expectation that West Ham might win rather than a forlorn hope that they won’t lose. I’m not sure that my anxiety levels have reduced come kick-off, however. Though they are anxieties about losing touch with the leading pack rather than getting sucked into a relegation battle. A win today and it will be halfway to the forty point minimum from just ten games.

Success breeds confidence but it can also lead to complacency. The manager’s balanced public persona provides some reassurance. Happy to praise the performance while looking for certain aspects of our game to improve. The return of the set piece threat is very welcome, but more goals are also needed from open play.

There will be no surprises in the starting eleven today with the team pretty much picking itself. Right back may be the only area of contention assuming both Valdimir Coufal and Ben Johnson are available to play. Johnson would be very unlucky if he has to settle for a place on the bench after recent performances. But competition for places is great!

Central attacking midfield is still the problem position for me. Both Pablo Fornals and Said Benrahma have done their best work when playing out wide and struggle to impose themselves enough in the central role behind Michail Antonio. Nikola Vlasic may be better suited to that position but needs to be fitter and faster (in both body and mind) before being considered a realistic starter.  

The other major development during the week has been the apparent interest in buying a stake in the club by Czech businessman and billionaire (and Sparta Prague President), Daniel Kretinsky. New investment rather than new ownership is more in line with David Sullivan’s immediate objectives and is more credible than an outright sale. How it might work in practice depends very much on the personalities of those involved and how they would get along. Do they have a shared love of Cossack hats? At face value, the deal is more appealing than being owned by a despotic overseas state. The Hammers go into today’s game in high spirits, having won four consecutive games in all competitions, as well as being unbeaten on the road this season. In contrasting fortunes, Villa have lost three on the trot since their win at Old Trafford at the end of September. Dean Smith is something of a gung-ho manager, hoping to outscore the opposition to compensate for weaknesses in defence. With Ings and Watkins they have the potential to do that but are currently lacking the creativity in midfield. Their open style of play should play to the Hammers counter-attacking strengths, as witnessed in last season’s 3-1 win. I’m hoping for a repeat score-line today. COYI!

We Got Knocked Down, But Can West Ham Get Up Again For Their Visit To Villa Park

Reality called at the weekend with an emphatic defeat to the league champions. The Hammers must now show their character in tonight’s tough Aston Villa test

Ultimately it was a bridge too far. It was meant to big our big moment. Talked up in the media, the final game of a perfect January, a place in the top four beckoning, and facing a jaded, injury ridden opponent struggling to find enough competent defenders. The higher the expectations built, the more disheartening the fall when it came.

It was no disgrace to be outplayed by what turned out to be a very good Liverpool performance, but it was disappointing that West Ham didn’t give a better account of themselves. Where the visitors passing was smart, crisp and incisive, the Hammers were unable to break the press, were funnelled into cul-de-sacs and invention was limited to hopeful first-time flicks.

Declan Rice and Tomas Soucek found themselves outnumbered in midfield and were unable to offer the usual solid foundation to build upon. Not the first time this has happened against an opponent playing 4-3-3, so perhaps a Plan-B is required for such occasions.

As the game progressed, it seemed a scoreless draw was the best we could hope for, but a moment of poor judgement by Aaron Cresswell allowed Salah the gilt edged opportunity needed to put an end to his scoring drought. The goal played out like watching an accident in slow motion. We all knew what Salah was hoping to do and yet he was allowed to execute it without challenge. After that, there was no way back.

In different circumstances, the last two Liverpool goals would have merited a polite round of applause, even from opposition fans. The breakaway goal was a thing of beauty and a more worthy goal of the season contender, in my opinion, than the usual 30-yard pile-driver.

What we need now from West Ham is to see a positive reaction. It is not uncommon, once the momentum of a good run is lost, that it has a debilitating effect on the player’s mentality. The last thing we want is to do a Southampton – and the next few games will be a true test of the player’s character. Bouncebackability as Iain Dowie once termed it.

No surprise that the transfer window came and went without putting a dent in the West Ham war chest. An already skeletal squad ending the day a net one down in its senior player complement (Haller and Snodgrass out; Lingard in). It turns out that the myriad worldwide striker links in the media and the teasing in-the-know insights from ExWHUtealady and others, were all just made-up in someone’s bedroom.

I do understand David Moyes pragmatic position on transfers. Better to spend what limited money might be available in the summer than on a Sullivan-special now. Sullivan loves to parade an exotic name in a misguided attempt to impress and appease the fans. Moyes has done a fantastic job with the resources he has to work with, but progression at the club is constrained by ongoing mismanagement in the boardroom – and the consequences of the big sums wasted by Pellegrini on players patently unsuited to the Premier League.

Perhaps the inactivity will provide an opportunity for selected academy players – Ben Johnson, Jamal Baptiste, Connor Coventry, Nathan Holland, Mipo Odubeko – to stake a claim during the remainder of the season. High time that the ‘Academy of Football’ delivered the goods.

Today’s opponents, Aston Villa, leave me heavily conflicted. They are having a fine season, have invested (mostly) wisely in the squad, play attractive and enterprising football and can boast arguably the most creative midfielder in the country. Yet all those positives are undone by their ever whinging manager, Dean “VAR ate my hamster” Smith, and the unashamed cheating antics of Jack Grealish. The outlandish dive by Grealish in this season’s reverse fixture, conning the referee into awarding a yellow a card to Pablo Fornals, simply has no defence. Any self-respecting sport that was interested in cleaning up its act would find a way to take retrospective action over such incidents.

Tonight, is going to be a tough game. I don’t see many changes to the West Ham line-up except a first glimpse of Jesse Lingard in a West Ham shirt, probably from the bench.  Goals will again prove a problem for the Hammers and any thoughts that Villa are vulnerable at the back are dispelled by their having the second lowest goals against in the league right now. We will do well to come away with a point and I am liking the look of 1-1 draw. COYI!