Category: Preview

The Premier League season has entered its final lap with today’s visitors, Stoke City, in pole position to claim one of the three unpopular relegation places.  Should the Potters come away from the match without at least a point then their chances of survival will look extremely grim indeed.  The Hammers themselves are not yet completely clear of the relegation scrap even though a long awaited second wind has lifted them to fourteenth place and six points above the drop zone.  A win today and that could well be survival guaranteed; at least for one more season.

On the evidence of their last two matches (against Arsenal and Tottenham) Stoke will offer plenty of effort but with very little in the way of quality to match it.  Against a weakened and very disinterested Arsenal they huffed and puffed but still managed to run out as 3-0 losers.  An equal measure of commitment was on show the following week against Tottenham until the hairs on Harry Kane’s shoulder struck the killer blow and left them pointless once more.

West Ham should go into the game with their confidence high looking for rare back to back wins at the London Stadium.  An atmosphere similar to that seen at that other Olympic Stadium (the one in Rome) on Tuesday night or in the home victory against Southampton should inspire the Hammers to a comfortable victory.  As always with our boys, though, the enemy  is complacency or tactics that react to Stoke’s desperation for points by sitting back and letting them attack – fine if it is backed up with clinical counter-attacking play but suicidal when paired with the, more often seen, giving the ball away cheaply ploy.

Monday night games were always great fun when it was one of the days on which midweek fixtures were played; but now that it is reserved for the weekend’s afterthought contest it has just become an irritating wait.  Whether good things come to those who wait remains to be seen.

Head to Head

The all-time record against Stoke is neck and neck with the Hammers having recorded just two more wins than the Potters in the 108 games played.  In more recent times the Midlanders have held the upper hand with a four to two win advantage (six draws) in the last twelve encounters.  In home matches West Ham have won five of the last twelve although have not been victorious at home since March 2011 when a 3-0 victory was the last of a season that led to relegation.

Team News

The West Ham starting eleven is unlikely to show too many changes from that which took the field at Stamford Bridge just over a week ago other than the potential forced replacement of the injured Aaron Cresswell by Patrice Evra.  The only other change I would expect is for Edmilson Fernandes to step down following his ineffective display against Chelsea, but whether that will mean a return for fit again Manuel Lanzini or a start for last week’s goal hero Javier Hernandez is the million dollar question.  The dilemma that Moyes faces is whether the inclusion of Hernandez diminishes the threat created from Marko Arnautovic’s free role or whether Lanzini and Joao Mario can be realistically accommodated in the same team.

There have been mumblings of a Andy Carroll return to the bench and fans of nostalgia might be excited at the prospect of both Carroll and Peter Crouch on the field at the same time.  I am not fan of the one dimensional target man but you cannot help but admire Crouch’s longevity and attitude.

Stoke have few injury worries with the major threat likely to come from Xherdan Shaqiri  (who always has me imagining he is from a Harry Enfield sketch) and in midfield from Joe Allen (who I hope is well and truly crossed off of our summer shopping list).  At the back Ryan Shawcross will continue to audition for a role as Bond villain henchman.

Also in the Stoke ranks is Glen Johnson, the most junior of the Hammer’s youth golden generation who between them amassed a raft of Premier League, Champion’s League, FA Cup and League Cup winner’s medals – sadly none with their academy club.  The shame with Johnson is that he played so few games in claret and blue before a relegation fire sale prompted his departure.  Fingers crossed that we won’t be repeating the same words about Declan Rice in a year or two’s time.

Man In The Middle

Sorting out the ‘went down too easily’ from the ‘was entitled to go down’ decisions will be Northumberland referee Michael Oliver, fresh from his midweek Bernabeu controversy.  Oliver has previously ref’d two West Ham games this term, defeats at home to Tottenham and away to Everton.  His 2017/18 record from 37 games is a whopping 134 yellow and 7 red cards.

Predictions

Both Lawro and Merson see the Hammers running out victorious at 2-0 and 2-1 respectively.  Anticipating that the coaching staff will not let complacency creep in and that we play the match at a good tempo I fully expect a West Ham by two or three goals.

Being of a certain age I can fondly recall the days when the prospect of a visit from Stoke City was one of the highlights of the season. For those of us who remember watching top flight football in the 1960s and early 1970s there were some epic fixtures against the Potters, who at the time were an attractive team that played entertaining football.

On a sunny Saturday afternoon in early October 1967 with a crowd of 24,000, we took our places on the “big step” on the North Bank at Upton Park about half way back slightly to the left of the goal. The Bee Gees were about to take over from Englebert Humperdinck at the top of the charts with Massachusetts. We were looking forward to the game and the first half didn’t disappoint us. Our first goal arrived when Geoff Hurst volleyed home a cross from the left from Peter Brabrook wearing the unfamiliar number 9 shirt. We had gone into the game with three out and out wingers in Brabrook, Sissons and Redknapp. The second goal was a spectacular overhead kick from Martin Peters following a cross from Redknapp. Shortly afterwards Bobby Moore sent Redknapp hurtling down the right wing, and he crossed from the bye-line to Hurst who headed home from six yards. Game over. Or so we thought!

Stoke had nothing to lose and came out attacking in the second half. When they pulled one back we weren’t unduly worried, but when a second went in we could see how the game was turning. Then our keeper Bobby Ferguson badly fumbled a weak shot and the rebound was turned in to bring the scores level. Stoke were now rampant and scored again to win the game 4-3. It is over 50 years ago now, but I remember the game very clearly. I’m not sure of the exact timing of the Stoke goals but my recollection is of them going in one after another in a very short period of time, a complete defensive collapse.

A couple of seasons later, almost to the day, a record which was banned by the BBC for its overly sexual content, Je T’Aime, Moi Non Plus (Jane Birkin and Serge Gainsbourg), was about to hot number one in the charts. If anything could be guaranteed to enhance the success of a song, being banned by the BBC was it. On a cold October Monday evening in front of a crowd of 27,000 we met Stoke again and raced into a three goal half time lead with strikes from Best, Brooking and Sissons. I can’t remember why, but Moore, Peters and Hurst who played in virtually every game at the time, were all missing for this fixture. From our customary North Bank vantage point we joked that we would probably lose 4-3 just as we had two seasons earlier. And we very nearly did! Once again Stoke came storming back to equalise the game at 3-3, and with almost the last kick of the game they struck the post.

Two seasons later we met Stoke in a League Cup semi-final that went to four games. In those days there were replays rather than penalty shoot-outs. On a Wednesday evening in December the first leg was away in the Potteries and we won the game 2-1 with goals from Best and a Geoff Hurst penalty. We were getting ready for a trip to Wembley! Almost 39,000 crammed into Upton Park for the second leg a week later. Stoke scored to bring the tie level at 2-2 before very late in the game we were awarded a penalty right in front of us in the North Bank. Geoff Hurst powered the spot-kick to the keeper’s right (as he always did), but the legendary Gordon Banks pulled off a magnificent save, and we went to a replay at Hillsborough in early January. That game ended goalless, so the tie went to a second replay, this time at Old Trafford three weeks later. For the whole of January the New Seekers were topping the charts singing (in Perfect Harmony!) that they’d like to teach the world to sing, a song made even more famous when it was used as a TV advertisement for Coca-Cola.

This second replay was incident packed, and one of the all-time great cup ties. It is remembered for Bobby Moore going in goal to replace the injured Bobby Ferguson who was concussed from a kick in the head early in the game. Incredibly Moore saved a penalty, although the rebound was turned in to put us 1-0 down. Incredibly we fought back and scored twice with goals from Billy Bonds and Trevor Brooking. Ferguson returned to the game to resume in goal seemingly still concussed (it couldn’t happen today!), but we conceded two further goals, and Stoke won the game 3-2 to reach the Wembley final, where they beat the strong favourites Chelsea to win their first ever major trophy. They haven’t won another since.

Those heady football (and charts) memories are distant now, and neither Stoke (nor ourselves for that matter) are renowned these days for the entertaining style of our play. In recent years beginning with the Tony Pulis era, Stoke have become a team that I particularly dislike to watch. Their time wasting, blocking off the ball (American football style), and long throw game made them one of the most unattractive fixtures of the season. They regularly played the game to achieve throw-ins in the opposition half, and then Rory Delap would spend an age wiping the ball with a towel before launching the ball towards the penalty area to meet the head of one of their giants. One game I remember in particular was in the 2008/9 season when Stoke had returned to the top flight. Abdoulaye Faye (who later played for us in our promotion season three years later) scored for them in the first five minutes and then they killed the game stone dead with their tactics. We attacked them relentlessly and Carlton Cole scored an equaliser in the second half. The recriminations amongst the Stoke players led to Ricardo Fuller hitting one of his own players and getting sent off. With ten men, their time wasting went up a notch (if that was possible) whilst we continued to press for a winner. In the very last minute a Cole shot hit Diego Tristan (remember him?) and it fortuitously went into the goal. Stoke got exactly what they deserved.

So now we meet them again on a Monday night with a lot at stake. Our point at Chelsea last week took us closer to safety, and I hope that we can put another nail in the Stoke relegation coffin with a victory that would almost certainly mean we will retain our position in the top flight. With most bookmakers we are around even money to win the game which I believe to be very generous odds. Hopefully we can unlock the Stoke defence, which has conceded more goals than any other Premier League team this season (and they have the worst goal difference). In their position, with games fast running out, they surely will not sit back and play for a point as they really need to win most of their final games to stay up. After the game here they face Burnley, Liverpool, Palace and Swansea.

We have some tough fixtures ourselves after this game, so let’s hope we can put further daylight between us and the bottom three with three more points. A three goal lead by half time would be good! When we raced into a three goal advantage at half time in our last home game against Southampton it got me thinking as to how many times we had been three goals ahead just half way through a game in the sixty years I have been following West Ham. I couldn’t think of many, and with Stoke being our next home fixture, it reminded me of those two classic fixtures from the late 1960s. Of course this game will be nothing like those; it will be a tight, tense affair. Or will it?

On Saturday morning we were in 14^th place in the Premier League, and with no game until today, there was every chance that we could have slipped down the table with most of the teams still involved in the relegation scrap having the opportunity to pick up points. But none of the teams below us managed to win a game which was probably the best we could have hoped for, so we go into today’s game with little to lose, and everything to gain. An average of a point a game has kept teams outside the bottom three all season, and it is looking increasingly likely that 38 points will be more than enough to achieve safety. It may only take 35 or 36.

Newcastle reached that level (38) yesterday with an important win at Leicester, as did Bournemouth who once again managed a late equaliser to deny Crystal Palace an away victory. They should both now be safe, as Watford almost certainly are with 37. I think that we can now narrow down the potential relegation candidates to eight teams as set out in the table below. Stoke lost to Tottenham, Brighton drew with Huddersfield, and Swansea could only manage a draw at doomed West Brom. I don’t think we could have wished for better than that.

Southampton play at Arsenal today, so I’m hoping that they will not gain on us, and they won’t have a hope of doing so if they replicate their woeful performance against us at the London Stadium last week.

The bottom teams in the Premier League	Points	Goal Diff.	Games Played	Games to play
13. Brighton	35	-14	32	6
14. West Ham	33	-18	31	7
15. Swansea	32	-19	32	6
16. Huddersfield	32	-28	33	5
17. Crystal Palace	31	-19	33	5
18. Southampton	28	-18	31	7
19. Stoke City	27	-33	33	5
20. West Brom	21	-26	33	5

It could be that Brighton have enough points already, but three more points will almost certainly see them safe. It is just as well that they have 35 points in the bag, as I doubt that they will get many more in their six remaining fixtures, two games at home to Tottenham and Manchester United, and four away games at Palace, Burnley, Manchester City and Liverpool. Our remaining fixtures are not the easiest but a home win against Stoke in the next round of matches should see us virtually safe with five games to go. Looking at the outstanding games, Palace have the easiest run-in on paper, and Swansea have a tough run of games before meeting Southampton and Stoke at home to round off their season. Huddersfield’s next game at home to Watford is a big game for them, as their final four fixtures see them play Chelsea, Everton, Manchester City and Arsenal.

At this stage I reckon that West Brom and Stoke are as good as down, and they will be joined by Southampton or Huddersfield. Bookmakers tend to agree with my assertion with both West Brom and Stoke at massive odds on to be relegated, and Southampton / Huddersfield both around even money. You can get around 5-1 on Swansea, 8-1 on Palace, and 10-1 on ourselves to be playing Championship football next season.

So what chance do we have in today’s game? Very little based on recent visits to Stamford Bridge. The last time we won a Premier League game there Di Canio netted the winner so you can see how long ago that was. Unsurprisingly Chelsea are massively odds on to collect three points, whereas you can get upwards of 10/1 on a West Ham win.

I’m hoping that we can upset the odds, but more than that looking for us to put in a good performance in the game. We beat them in the reverse fixture at home when Arnie scored the only goal of the game, so what chance we can do the double?

At this stage of the season there are already four Premier League clubs who know their final finishing position.  Manchester City and West Bromwich Albion will be first and last respectively, Arsenal will be sixth and Chelsea fifth.  Everyone associated with Chelsea also knows that come the start of next season they will have yet another different manager.  Even though Roman Abramovich seems to have increasingly lost interest in the project since Chelsea’s Champion’s League success (or perhaps there is no money left to laundered?) he still loves to sack a managers whenever he can.  Chelsea, like Arsenal, no longer compete with the Manchester clubs in fanning the wild flames of transfer fee inflation leaving them as big six also-rans with the feel of a famous 1970’s rock band who continue to tour under the same name but with none of the original line-up.

In a quirk of fixture computer fate, Chelsea take on West Ham on the same day that Arsenal face the fellow strugglers, soundly beaten by the Hammers last weekend, Southampton.  On paper both would be seen as tough games in the run-in of relegation threatened sides but, in reality, the two once mighty London clubs are left with little to play for as far as the Premier League is concerned.   The papers may be full of stirring claims that Chelsea will be desperate to bounce back from last week’s defeat at the hands of Tottenham but transferring that spirit of enthusiasm to the most typical band of fickle West-End mercenaries may be more of a challenge. In short, taking a point or more from this game is more than possible for the Hammers.

If West Ham are no longer everyone’s second club, playing a brand of football the way it is meant to be played, there is one tradition that has been maintained throughout Hammer’s history – inconsistency.  On the evidence of last week the Cockney Boys should be going into the game with their tails up and full of confidence.  I’m sure that many supporters have a sense, even if they don’t want to say it out loud, that today could be one of those days where the return journey on the eastbound District Line is a happy one where the blue flag has been well and truly inserted where it belongs.  The secret fear, however, is that rather than starting where they left off last week it will be one of those timid and lethargic displays that all too often follow an encouraging win.

Head to Head

West Ham’s recent overall record against Chelsea is probably as good as it gets against top six sides showing four wins from the last twelve encounters.  It is not such a good picture, however, when you look at away games only.  The Hammers have won none of the last twelve and the last manager to win at Stamford Bridge was Glenn Roeder in September 2002.

Team News

Every West Ham player put in a good performance and received wisdom in such situations is not to change a winning team.  Even a half-hearted Chelsea will offer more of a challenge than Southampton did and their greatest threat has traditionally been the dribbling and diving of Eden Hazard; if he can be bothered this afternoon.  If Hazard does turn up then strength (without reckless challenges) in the centre of the Hammer’s midfield will be crucial.  If James Collins is fit there could be a case for deploying Declan Rice in midfield but the question is who would make way?

Manuel Lanzini returns to the squad this afternoon but would expect him to start on the bench with Moyes sticking to the Marko Arnautovic/ Joao Mario partnership that rattled the Saints last time out.

Chelsea are likely to have Courtois and Pedro available and I am hoping that Conte decides to play Pedro rather than the want-away Willian, a player that I admire greatly.

Man in The Middle

Kevin Friend from Leicestershire is today’s match-day referee.  Friend has two previous West Ham games under his belt this season – the home league win over Huddersfield and the EFL Cup exit at Arsenal.  His season record is fifty-one yellows and one red from twenty-eight games.

Predictions

Both Merson and Lawro have predicted 2-0 home wins for the game.  It is about time the Hammers had some joy at Stamford Bridge although we were clearly cheated out of three points by some typically terrible Robert ‘Bobby’ Madely refereeing in March 2016.  In a fit of optimism I am banking on West Ham sneaking it over a listless Chelsea with a Di Canio emulating brace from Arnautovic.

If there is one club that has appeared to shadow the Hammers over recent seasons it is Southampton.  They are the side that West Ham frequently jostle with in the quest for Premier League place money and, unfortunately, more often than not it has been the south coast club that come out on top.  Even in the 2015-16 Payet inspired season, viewed by many supporters as the pinnacle of West Ham’s Premier League achievement, the Saints still snuck in at the last minute to pip the Hammers for the last of the top six berths.  With a distinct possibility that at least one of these two teams will not be playing Premier League football next term this could well be seen as a worrying trend.

Southampton have been much admired in contemporary top flight football for their ability to consistently adjust to losing a string of fine home produced talent (and managers) looking for bigger pay packets and better things.  The merits of their scouting and succession planning have long been applauded but following a series of questionable managerial decisions they now find themselves sitting unceremoniously in the bottom three; two points below the Hammers but with a much superior goal difference.  In a panicked response to this slide and threat to Premier League status the appointment of the serially morose non-performer Mark Hughes surely bring the credibility of the much vaunted succession plan into serious question. The prospect of Moyes versus Hughes in a late season relegation dogfight is unlikely to be the beautiful game’s finest hour (and a half plus stoppages.)

West Ham made the most of the three week break with a holiday to Miami.  The lethargic response to previous warm weather breaks (and my own recollection of the first day back in the office after a week at the beach) does not instil the greatest confidence that today will see an up and at ‘em, all guns a-blazing display from the first whistle.  Just as important for West Ham’s fortunes is whatever goes on around the pitch as well as on it.  After the disgraceful scenes towards the end of the Burnley game the last thing needed is increased heavy handed security meets angry, alcohol fuelled toxic supporters.  What is really needed today, for the good of the club, is for fans to put their personal grievances to one side for the time being and play the part of the crucial twelfth man.  There are no benefits to be had from relegation; no matter what twisted logic is employed.

Head to Head

The last twelve games between West Ham and Southampton have seen four wins apiece and four draws.  In the last twelve played in London, West Ham have won seven and lost four with just a single draw.  Southampton ran out easy 3-0 winners in the only previous meeting at the London Stadium in September 2016.

Team News

West Ham welcome back Arthur Masuaku (following a six match ban) and Edmilson Fernandes (after a mysterious injury) to the match-day squad.  There are concerns with the fitness of Manuel Lanzini and James Collins who picked up knocks during the enforced cup and international break.

Southampton have few injury concerns and ominously welcome Charlie Austin back to their squad.  Since David Sullivan’s ill-judged public comments about Austin he needs no additional motivation to raise his game against the Hammers.  Hopefully, this can be reciprocated and trumped by Marko Arnautovic’s animosity towards Hughes.

Southampton’s major threat often comes via their full/ wing backs, Bertrand and Soares, and West Ham must work hard to keep them occupied and well tracked.  There really needs to be an alternative to the hopeless Noble – Kouyate axis in central midfield and even though I prefer Declan Rice as a centre back I would start with further forward today; otherwise Lemina and Tadic will be calling the shots.  That would rely on a back three of Collins (if fit), Ogbonna and the vulnerable Cresswell but that is about as good as it gets in the mismanaged circumstances of the squad strength. Further forward now is the hour for Arnautovic, Lanzini and Michail Antonio to prove their worth and Premier League class.

Man in The Middle

Today’s referee is Jonathan Moss from West Yorkshire.  Like all his other Premier League colleagues he is deemed not good enough to officiate at the World Cup but we are stuck with him nevertheless.  Moss is taking charge of his third West Ham game of the season having previously whistled through a home draw with Arsenal and an away win at Huddersfield.  In twenty eight outings he has a record of ninety-five yellows and three red cards.

Predictions

Lawro has toppled of his fence this week to predict a 2-1 West Ham win while Merson goes the other way to predict an away win by the same score.  The Cockney Rejects sang Shit or Bust while the Small Faces put it more politely as All or Nothing and today has that sort of feel to it.  Win and we most probably survive, lose and we are looking over our shoulder at the fat lady.  Southampton will be hoping for a new manager bounce – but it is only Mark Hughes.  With the right attitude and the crowd behind them the Hammers can win comfortably.  If it goes the other way I can see us ending the season stuck on 30 points.  In a show of solidarity I will plump for 3-1 to the cockney boys.

It seems ridiculous on the face of it, as the football season is approaching its climax (we are only six weeks away from the final game), that we should have a gap of three weeks between games. This is, of course, due to the later rounds of the FA Cup and the international break taking precedence. In view of our dismal form prior to the break, then perhaps in our case it is a welcome chance to re-group, work hard, and re-charge our batteries for the run-in. We have just eight games remaining to collect sufficient points to ensure that our six-year stay in the top flight of English football continues for at least one further season.

Whilst all of the remaining games are likely to be important, this match against Southampton is a particularly crucial one. Looking at the other fixtures in this round concerning other teams involved in the relegation scrap, Stoke are playing at Arsenal, whereas Newcastle are at home to Huddersfield, Palace face a tough game with Liverpool visiting Selhurst Park, and Swansea travel to Old Trafford. If (and it is a big if) we can win the game, and if other results go our way, then the league table could look a lot healthier at the end of this group of matches. The table below represents the current position of the bottom eight, who I believe are the only realistic candidates for the drop. Brighton, Watford and Bournemouth on 34, 36, 36 points respectively, have probably done enough already but are not entirely safe yet.

The bottom teams in the Premier League	Points	Goal Diff.	Games Played	Pts in last 5 games	Home games to play	No. of top 6 teams to play
13. Newcastle	32	-10	30	8	4	3
14. Swansea	31	-17	30	8	4	3
15. Huddersfield	31	-27	31	7	3	3
16. Crystal Palace	30	-18	31	3	4	1
17. West Ham	30	-21	30	3	5	4
18. Southampton	28	-15	30	5	3	3
19. Stoke City	27	-29	31	3	3	3
20. West Brom	20	-25	31	0	4	3

A victory, with the other results going to form in our favour could see us climb as high as 14^th place in the table on 33 points. If that does happen then we could be five points clear of the drop zone with seven games to play, whereas some of the others would only have six matches outstanding. When you look at the table, then the bottom five have the poorest form in the last five games. We hold a bit of an advantage in that we still have five home games to play, which is more than any of the others, but on the other hand we have more teams in the top six to play in our remaining fixtures.

A draw would still leave us well in the mix with a lot to do, whereas a defeat would be almost unthinkable as we would drop into the bottom three. It is still not clear exactly how many points will be needed to stay up, but any team averaging a point a game continues to be outside of the bottom three. If this remains to the end of the season, and I believe it will, then 38 should be a safe figure. At this stage my money would be on West Brom, Stoke, and Huddersfield to go down, but things can still change. The bookmakers’ odds concur with my prediction, as these are the three favourites, with Southampton and ourselves neck and neck just beyond them. West Brom look as certain as can be, whereas Stoke could join them adrift of the pack with their next two games against Arsenal and Tottenham, before they face us at the London Stadium on April 16. We have a fairly difficult run-in ourselves, but Southampton could also find themselves in a difficult position if we beat them, and then their next three games see them facing Arsenal (A), Chelsea (H) and Leicester (A).

Huddersfield face two tough away games at Newcastle and Brighton before a home fixture against Watford. Their run-in then sees them playing Chelsea, Everton, Manchester City and Arsenal, and with their very poor goal difference I can see them joining West Brom and Stoke in the Championship next season.

I see that a demonstration is planned at Stratford prior to the game, but I hope that the support is right behind the team when the game gets underway, and that we don’t see a repeat of the despair that was evident when we went a goal down against Burnley last time. I’m hoping that the sight of Mark Hughes on the touchline will once again inspire Arnie into a match-winning performance, but I’ve given up on trying to predict the team that our manager will select for this crucial game, as I am unable to read his mind.

The most recent games between West Ham and Southampton have seen a glut of goals, including the fixture earlier in the season when we went down 3-2 to a late goal from a soft penalty, after pulling back from a two goal deficit. If our visitors win the game it would be the first time that they had completed a double in the league over us in a season for 20 years, and by doing so they would apparently inflict upon us our 1000^th defeat in the top division in our history. And if they beat us by three goals then that would be our fourth consecutive league defeat by this margin or more, an unfortunate “feat” that hasn’t happened in the top flight of English football for 50 years! You know what happens with statistics like these when West Ham are involved!

There are concerns over the fitness of Lanzini who was on international duty in the break, but Masuaku can return after his six game suspension, and apparently Fernandes, who hasn’t been seen for some time, is fit once again. Rice received some excellent reviews for his performance for Ireland and must start to get a permanent run in the team soon. But whatever happens, all will not be decided this weekend with a lot of football still to be played this season.

Although there are still five home games to go, this will be the last Saturday 3pm kick off at the London Stadium. I fancy a surprising and unexpected 4-1 win for us. Of course what I fancy is extremely unlikely, but you can always hope!

It is a sad state of affairs that every club in the Premier League outside of the top six has a negative goal difference. That means that if you support any one of 14 teams in the top flight then you will have seen them concede more goals than they have scored. And apart from Burnley, who are currently leading the table to finish seventh, your team will have lost more games than they have won. This weekend we face the aforementioned Clarets in the 30^th game of the 38 game campaign, in our latest attempt to pull away from the bottom three. So far they have won ten and drawn ten, so for those of us who like symmetry I hope that we inflict upon them their tenth reverse of the season.

The bottom 14 teams in the Premier League after 28 games	Points after 29 games	Goal Diff.	Pts in last 5 games	Home games to play	No. of top 6 teams to play
7.  Burnley	40	-2	6
8.  Leicester	37	-1	3
9.  Watford	36	-8	10
10. Brighton	34	-10	11
11. Everton	34	-16	6
12. Bournemouth	33	-10	8	5	3
13. Swansea	30	-17	10	4	3
14. West Ham	30	-18	4	6	4
15. Huddersfield	30	-25	6	5	3
16. Newcastle	29	-13	6	5	3
17. Southampton	28	-12	6	3	3
18. Crystal Palace	27	-18	2	4	2
19. Stoke City	27	-26	4	5	4
20. West Brom	20	-21	0	5	3

As I have written before on the subject there is no official competition to finish seventh, but there is a certain satisfaction to be gained from being the leading team in the Premier League outside of the top six who are far and away ahead of the rest. Prize money is at stake too, but this becomes less relevant given the money ploughed in from domestic and overseas television rights.

The battle to avoid relegation, which has massive financial implications, continues to be the most interesting aspect of the league. An extract from part of the league table shown above illustrates that we are still in a better position than some, as there are still six teams below us with only nine games to go. Perhaps the teams from Everton upwards may believe they are more or less safe (although they wouldn’t admit it), but they could still get dragged into it if they have a bad run of results, and enough of the teams below them continue to pick up points.

The teams who currently occupy the bottom three places have current poor form (when the last five games are analysed), although we have only fared better than Palace and West Brom in this respect. Swansea and Bournemouth have the momentum gained from recent good results and this might help them to pull further clear. However we still have six home games to play, and although some fans would have you believe otherwise, our form at the London Stadium would put us in 11^th place in the table if only home games are considered. This should give us an advantage, especially when compared to Southampton who only have three. However we still have to face four of the top six in the table in our remaining nine games, and only Stoke match that number.

It is still not clear exactly how many points will be needed to stay up, but any team averaging a point a game continues to be outside of the bottom three. If this remains to the end of the season, and I believe it will, then 38 should be a safe figure. The home games against Burnley, Southampton and Stoke should be the key ones for us, so let us hope that we start a winning run today. At this stage my money would be on West Brom, Stoke, and Southampton to go down, but things can still change.

Ironically, despite facing the team seventh in the table, the bookmakers have us as favourites to win the game at around 5/4, whereas they only give odds of 5/2 on Burnley. This may surprise some, but Burnley’s recent form is not much better than our own. Unfortunately (given the way these statistics go against us) I still have to report that West Ham have won every home Premier League game against Burnley to date, and they haven’t won a game in the top flight on our ground for almost 45 years. And Burnley haven’t won away from home since November. Oh dear!

Let us hope that the stinging criticism aimed at the players following last week’s capitulation at Swansea has the effect of galvanising our team into a much improved performance. But, however we achieve it, three points would bring a welcome boost to our aim to remain in the Premier League next season. I believe that, in what is likely to be a tight encounter, we will just about win by the odd goal. Enjoy the game!

When I first started following professional football more seriously as a boy, when my preferred bedtime reading was the Playfair Football Annual, Burnley were one of the top sides in the English league.  At the time I would have been able to recite their preferred line-up from memory; which started something like Blacklaw, Angus, Elder, Adamson and so on.  They had won the old First Division in 1960 and were runners-up in both league and cup in the 1961-62 season.  It is fair to say that times have changed dramatically since those days when even Tottenham Hotspur didn’t choke in the final furlong.

Nowadays, most Hammers probably regard Burnley as one of the minions of the Premier League (and in financial terms they languish some way behind West Ham) and yet they sit comfortably in 7^th place with the luxury of looking down leisurely at the frantic scramble below them for top flight survival.  Much of the credit for the new found stability must go to gravelly voiced manager, Sean Dyche, the most famous product from Kettering since Weetabix.  Burnley sensibly stuck with Dyche following relegation in 2015 and, following a quick return, they have emerged as a hard working, difficult to beat Premier League outfit.  There are many parallels with Fat Sam’s old Bolton Wanderers side but with several shades less negativity.

In contrast, things are so bad at West Ham at the moment that it feels like the club must have collectively got out of the wrong side of the bed at the start of the season.  A mini-revival in fortunes at the 2017 has faded and died and there is now the very real danger of relegation haunting the London Stadium.  The Hammers appear to have hit a wretched run of form at just the wrong time.  Mark Noble writing on the official West Ham website has told us not to worry and that everything will be OK.  I am not sure if those are reassuring words or cause for even more worry by what could be taken as a show of complacency.  What is needed is a fight and commitment shown by a team who know they are in a very perilous position.  The current off-field disenchantment around the club doesn’t help either and it has created a toxic environment that must have a knock-on effect to the players.  Not that there are not genuine grievances that, until now, have fallen on deaf ears in the boardroom.  But I do wonder whether now is the right time to air them when the team need a united support to get them across the seventeenth position line.  At least the threat of the march has disappeared but not without a degree of farce reminiscent of the splitters in Monty Python’s Life of Brian – the ‘Poplar’ Front of Judea maybe!

Head to Head

Although the all-time record against Burnley is close to neck and neck, the Hammers have bossed recent meetings having won eight of the last twelve (home and away) and ten of the last twelve home games.  The last Burnley win was at Upton Park in December 2011 when the Clarets came from behind to win 2-1 and prevent the West Ham going to the top of the Championship. The most recent top flight Burnley win was a 2-1 victory at Turf Moor against Gianfranco Zola’s Hammers in February 2010.

In the reverse fixture in October the Hammers were on course for a welcome three points until the game changing and unnecessarily foolish sending off of Andy Carroll.

Team News

Apparently today is designated in the gaming community as Mario Day (on account of it being MAR10) and just maybe this is an omen for a super display from our Portuguese loanee who, so far, has flattered to deceive.  At this stage of the season we need to clutch at any straw that is available.

After two feeble 4-1 reverses on the road we should expect to see several changes today.  It would not surprise me if Joe Hart replace Adrian in goal although it is difficult to pin much blame on the Spaniard for recent performances.  In the centre of defence we will need height to combat the visitors most dangerous threat.  With Winston Reid (and Sam Byram) reported to be out for the season options are limited and the hope is that both Angelo Ogbonna and James Collins have recovered from their problems of last week.  The presence of Aaron Cresswell in the back three always makes me nervous and especially so against a team who are strength is aerial power.  Declan Rice deserves to keep his place but the dilemma is whether to play him at the back or as emergency central midfielder to cover for the continuing flaws in the Noble – Cheikhou Kouyate partnership.

In the more advanced positions there is a desperate need for width and surely Michail Antonio will be a starter this week.  Unfortunately neither Pablo Zabaleta nor Patrice Evra can offer much of an offensive threat which maybe another argument for returning Cresswell to a left (wing) back role.

It is difficult to see how Javier Hernandez fits into the equation.  Undoubtedly he is the best natural finisher at the club but usually offers little outside of the penalty area.  Somehow fashioning Mark Arnautovic, Manual Lanzini, Antonio and Joao Mario into an effective attacking unit could be the best option of causing Burnley damage.

Burnely have their own injury problems and are reported to be without Arfield, Defour, Walters, Brady (who has frequently given the Hammers a torrid time) and keeper Heaton.

The Man in The Middle

Lee Mason from Greater Manchester controls his third Hammers match of the season with the previous two ending as 3-2 defeats: away at Southampton (where he sent off Arnautovic) and home to Newcastle.  In his twenty outings this year his record is fifty-three yellow and three red cards.

Predictions

The safest prediction of the week is that Lawro would have this down as a 1-1 draw. Merson, on the other hand, senses a West Ham reaction and a 2-0 home win.  Burnley are not going to be worried about possession stats and will put the onus on West Ham to break them down.  The usual laboured slow-slow predictable build up is not going get very far.   Maybe we can hope for a little less desire from Burnley with thoughts shifting onto the summer holiday brochures after a job well done.  In any case West Ham need to be fully up for today’s game and I will have everything crossed to take anything from a scruffy win to a pedigree performance.  Perhaps it will turn out to be an opportunity for Joao Mario to celebrate his special day by netting a glorious winner.

The competition to see who will come out on top in Premier League 2 is as fierce as ever. Ignoring the top six in the Premier League it is anybody’s guess as to how the remaining 14 teams will finish the season with just ten games to go.

The bottom 14 teams in the Premier League after 28 games	Points after 28 games	Goal Diff.	Pts in last 5 games	Home games to play	No. of top 6 teams to play	Burnley LeicesterEverton Arsenal  To play
7.  Burnley	37	-3	3	5
8.  Leicester	36	-1	5	5
9.  Everton	34	-15	7	5
10. Watford	33	-9	7	5	4	2
11. Bournemouth	32	-10	8	5	3	1
12. Brighton	31	-11	8	5	5	3
13. West Ham	30	-15	5	6	4	4
14. Huddersfield	30	-23	6	5	4	2
15. Newcastle	29	-11	6	5	4	3
16. Southampton	27	-12	6	4	3	2
17. Crystal Palace	27	-18	2	5	3	1
18. Swansea	27	-20	10	5	3	1
19. Stoke City	26	-26	6	5	4	3
20. West Brom	20	-20	1	5	3	2

Of course there is no official competition to finish seventh, and who cares about finishing positions? Of course prize money is at stake, but with the vast amounts of money awash in the Premier League these days, the final position in the table is not especially relevant. Of most interest is the battle to avoid the drop, which has massive financial implications. I’m making an assumption that Burnley, Leicester and Everton probably have enough points not to be involved in the scrap, and that the bottom 11 teams from Watford down are still involved to a greater or lesser extent. In fact we have to play those three teams (who should be OK) still and that may be to our advantage as they may have switched off a little, as may Arsenal who are unlikely to move upwards or downwards in the table being isolated in sixth place.

Looking at the data above then West Brom and Stoke along with the three teams on 27 points have the most to do in terms of points needed. The bottom three at the moment have the worst goal difference together with Huddersfield and Palace, but looking at the form of the last five games then Swansea, Bournemouth and Brighton have achieved the most, with West Brom, Palace and ourselves at the bottom of the last five games form table.

All of the teams have 5 home and 5 away games to play with the exception of ourselves (6) and Southampton (4), which is a result of the switch at the very beginning of the season. Brighton have the most top 6 sides still to play (5), with all the other teams involved having 3 or 4. And finally looking at my identification of games to play against the four teams with the least to play for, then we still have to meet all four of them. Some might say though that is a disadvantage as the teams may be more relaxed and as such could give us a tougher game.

Whichever way you look at it, it is difficult to make a case for West Brom to survive. If they did it would be up there with the great escapes of the past, including our own in 2007. You can perm any two from five for the others to be playing Championship football next season, but looking at all of the factors my money would be on Stoke and Southampton to be the ones to join the Baggies. But it is so close, a lot can still happen, and this can easily change.

Our next three games at Swansea (today), then at home to Burnley and Southampton, will be ones that on paper we would expect to move us further clear of the bottom three. But if we don’t then the tough games to follow could mean we are still in deep trouble.

Of course watching the news this week, all the talk and pictures has been of the worst snowfall throughout the country for many years. Based on this, the warnings for most of the country not to travel unless absolutely essential, and the forecast for more snow this evening, then at the time of writing, I am amazed that all Premier League games are still set to go ahead. I hope that for the sake of travelling fans, especially our own with the potential difficulties of a long trip to South Wales, that decisions are not left until the last possible moment. But as we have seen with the recent announcement of TV games scheduled to be played on live TV, and the changes of dates involved, little thought is given to the supporters actually going to the matches, everything seems to be decided by Sky and BT who have final say.

Contradictory head to head statistics give us little clue as to the outcome of today’s game. On one hand, Swansea have only beaten us once in our last ten meetings, but on the other hand, they have never lost to us four times in a row, which would be the case if we beat them tomorrow. Over the course of history we are well on top in terms of wins, but just 15 of the 62 meetings have ended in draws. The bookmakers have Swansea as slight favourites to win the game, and given their recent form this is justified. However, when it comes to the correct score, then 1-1 is favourite at 5/1, and I would be happy to leave South Wales with at least a point.

Virtually all of our key players are fit, and it will be interesting to see the side that Moyes selects. I have given up trying to predict this, but I will agree with the bookies on a 1-1 draw, and Andre Ayew would seem a good bet to score the Swansea goal.

At the time of finishing this article, (9pm on Friday evening) all this weekend’s Premier League games are expected to go ahead despite the continuing snowfall and freezing conditions that are gripping the whole of the UK. We shall see.

Not exactly an unstoppable force meeting an irresistible object but today’s game does pitch a ‘must win’ Swansea side against a ‘mustn’t lose’ visiting West Ham.  Both sides were on the wrong end of heavy 4-1 away defeats last weekend, against Brighton and Liverpool respectively, although the Swans have since picked themselves up, dusted themselves down and made it through to the sixth round of the FA Cup.

The Swans are still in the throws of  a new manager bounce following the appointment of Portu-geezer Carlos Carvalhal in December 2017, their ninth manager in ten years of whom only Roberto Martinez has lasted more than two years.  With Carvalhal’s record of seventeen jobs in twenty years it would be ambitious to expect long service awards at the Liberty Stadium any time soon.  That aside, Swansea have won their last three home league games (and last six in all competitions) to rejoin the pack of clubs with all to play for in the relegation stakes.  A win today would put them on equal points with the Hammers.

West Ham, on the other hand, will need to up their game considerably from that on display during their defeat at Anfield although the prospect of facing a pair of Ayews is far less formidable than what the Merseysiders had to offer; even for West Ham’s timeworn and dawdling defence.  The other variable for today’s game is the weather conditions and although technology has meant that Premier League games are no longer called off due to frozen pitches, there will still be safety concerns for those attempting to travel to South Wales this afternoon.

Head to Head

West Ham have won six of the last twelve fixtures with Swansea and have also been victorious in five of the last twelve away games.  The last defeat on the road was in August 2012 and last season the Hammers came away with a resounding 4-1 Boxing Day victory.

Team News

The usual names are on the West Ham absentee list which is thankfully shorter than a few weeks back.  Arthur Masuaku serves the fifth of his six match spitting ban, Pedro Obiang is, of course, out for the remainder of the season and the Hammers are also without the elusive Andy Carroll and the even more elusive Edmilson Fernandes.

Changes from last week’s starting eleven should be expected and I would hope to see either Winston Reid and/ or Declan Rice returning to the back line and one of Michail Antonio or Little Pea starting in place of Joao Mario.  Any realistic solution to the fragility and ineffectiveness of the Noble – Kouyate central midfield partnership seems as unlikely as finding a simple answer to the frictionless Irish border conundrum.

Swansea are without long term injured Bony, Fer and Angel and look set to give a first start since his return to Wales to former Hammer, Andre Ayew.

The Man in the Middle

Familiar face Martin Atkinson will be officiating his fifth West Ham contest of the season but has yet to see a Hammers win.  Previous attempts have ended in defeats away to Manchester United and at home to Brighton plus two home draws with Leicester and Bournemouth.  Atkinson has been in charge of twenty four games this term issuing eighty-one yellow cards and four red ones.

Predictions

Lawro has returned to his favourite 1-1 scoreline for today’s game while Merson is predicting a 1-0 Swansea win.  Chances are that the Hammers will need to rely on the form of Marko Arnautovic once more to get anything out of the game but the hopeful presence of Manuel Lanzinin and Antonio can also cause the home team enough problems to compensate for erratic defending at the other end.  With all of my frost bitten fingers and toes crossed I am banking on Marko showing himself as the true beast from the east today and  inspiring the Hammers to an odd goal victory.