Match – Page 78 – Under The Hammers

Defeat at Arsenal; now Home to Swansea

Five consecutive league defeats; now we face an important six-pointer against Swansea.

Ayew versus Swansea

Geoff Hopkins summed up the Arsenal game perfectly in his article Five Cruel Lessons From Defeat @ Arsenal, and I have little to add to that. I have been following our team for almost sixty years and I had a quick look back over that time to ascertain how many times we have lost five league games in a row.

The first time it happened was in 1960-61. Ted Fenton was the manager, but he was sacked after three of the games, and a selection committee of the board were responsible for the next two losses. Ron Greenwood took over for the final four games of the season (none of which were won) and we finished 16^th (out of 22).

It happened twice when Greenwood was in charge. The first time in 1966-67, the season after England’s World Cup win, we lost seven (the most I think!) on the trot at one stage. Again we finished 16^th (out of 22). It occurred again in 1970-71 when we lost five times in a row. That season we finished 20^th (out of 22). We weren’t relegated, as only two teams went down at that time.

John Lyall also managed it twice; although neither of these happened in the two seasons we were relegated with him in charge. In 1976-77 we escaped with a 4-2 victory over Manchester United in the final game, and in 1986-87 we finished 15^th.

Billy Bonds was manager in the ill-fated Bond Scheme season (1991-92) which culminated in us finishing at the foot of the table. We lost six in a row at one stage that season. With Harry Redknapp, and more surprisingly Glenn Roeder in charge we never did manage to lose five league games in a row in any season.

In 2006-07 it happened twice, and we still avoided the drop in the season of the “Great Escape.” Firstly, it happened when Alan Pardew was manager, and he was sacked just a few weeks afterwards. Secondly, we lost five in a row under Alan Curbishley, the fifth one being the heartbreaking 4-3 loss at home to the North London neighbours who we don’t like. But after that game we won seven out of the final nine fixtures to complete a remarkable escape.

In 2009-10 under Gianfranco Zola we lost six league games in a row at one stage, and our likeable (but ineffective) manager departed soon afterwards. And then in the following season the inspirational appointment of Avram Grant by our new owners proved to be anything but, and a run of five consecutive league defeats was followed by his P45 a couple of weeks later.

Just like under Redknapp and Roeder, it didn’t happen under Big Sam, and we had to wait until this current run for it to happen under Slaven Bilic. I dread to contemplate our fate if the run extends to seven to match 1966-67!

We now need to end this losing streak, and hopefully come up with a win against struggling Swansea. After two dreadful home defeats to ourselves (4-1) and Bournemouth (3-0) to finish 2016, our visitors today went on an excellent run to move out of the relegation zone, winning five of their first eight games of 2017, which included away victories at Palace and Liverpool, and home wins over Southampton, Leicester and Burnley. The tide appeared to have turned under new manager Paul Clement, but the last four games have seen them pick up just a solitary point in a goalless home draw with fellow strugglers (and potentially doomed) Middlesbrough.

The games where they went down were 2-1 at Hull, who are having a bit of a revival themselves under a new manager who hasn’t lost at home (for years!), and 2-0 at Bournemouth. And then finally in midweek they looked to have sewn up three valuable points against our disliked aforementioned friends from North London, only for them to concede three heartbreaking goals in the 89^th, 92^nd and 95^th minutes, and as a consequence slip back into the relegation zone. It is unusual (almost unheard of) for me to cheer Tottenham goals but I have to admit that I did on Wednesday night. The late turnaround meant that we go into the game today five points ahead of them (and so the drop zone too), instead of the three points gap that was prematurely quoted on social media by so many of our Twitter followers prior to the final whistle.

One quote that I read today, was that teams who have conceded at least 66 goals after 31 games in a Premier League season have always been relegated. For anyone who wasn’t aware of this (well known!!) statistic, it has happened six times before to Swindon, Barnsley, Fulham, Ipswich and Wolves (twice).

Their top scorer Llorente is likely to return after injury and there could be an Ayew playing for both sides. It would be good to see Jordan Ayew repeat his performance for Villa against us at Upton Park when he, unprovoked, for no apparent reason elbowed Cresswell in full view of everybody and had an early bath (showers these days!). Sigurdsson is an extremely talented player, and one of the few that I have seen us linked with in the past who I would like to see in our side.

The last two fixtures between us have ended 4-1 to the away side. Few can forget how they gave us a drubbing in the penultimate game held at (fortress!) Upton Park, but we repeated that feat ourselves on Boxing Day just over three months ago with goals from Ayew (his first for us), Reid, Antonio and Carroll.

In view of the importance of this game, described as a massive six-pointer, I expect a nervy game, especially in view of the recent form of both sides. I don’t expect a third 4-1 in a row, but hope that we can halt our recent slide down the table and edge the game by the odd goal in three. I anticipate quite an atmosphere, especially if we can score the first goal, and you never know, a win today and at Sunderland next week, and with other results going our way, we could find ourselves back in the top half of the table by next weekend! I’m not sure that’s where we deserve to be, but, as they say, the league table never lies!

And for all West Ham fans, a topical selection in today’s Grand National, Blaklion, who will carry a few of my hard earned pounds!

5 Cruel Lessons From Defeat @ Arsenal

The customary defeat to Arsenal as a slow and static West Ham show few ideas in the quest for Premier League survival.

No Surprise: Defeat by Arsenal

Considering the game in isolation, a defeat away at Arsenal (any defeat by Arsenal) is nothing unusual. It is what happens most of the time when we play them. In the context of the season, however, five Premier League reverses on the bounce and a growing realisation that we are feasible relegation candidates, another three points surrendered is a major concern. At one point it looked like the night could turn out a whole lot worse as Hull, Palace, Bournemouth and Swansea all took the lead. In fact we should give thanks to our friends from White Hart Lane for their late, late come-back in South Wales (hopefully denting Swansea’s confidence for the weekend) that our plight is not even more desperate.

Banking on a Clean Sheet?

Plan A at the Emirates, as far as it went, was to choke all life out of the game by defending in numbers and having Antonio and Ayew protecting the full-backs. There seemed little pretence that we would do anything with the ball when we got it; those very moments that Slaven had described as being when Arsenal were at their most vulnerable. In terms of its limited aspirations the first half worked reasonably well but it was all change after the interval when Antonio was withdrawn due to injury and replaced with Snodgrass. Arsenal raised the tempo after the break but still did not look convincing until the gift of a goal relieved the pressure, from whence onwards it was men against boys. The opening goal was a sloppy all-round effort by West Ham; Fonte failing to clear and Randolph allowing the feeblest of attempts by Ozil to elude him and nestle in the back of the net. Complaints about offside merely intended to hide the embarrassment of another Randolph blooper.

Anyone Got a Plan B?

The tactical switch after the goal was to replace Carroll with Sakho, exchanging one man receiving no service with another, but with no discernible variation to shape or formation. It was pretty much ‘shit or bust’ after the Arsenal goal went in and so was probably worth 30 minutes or so of Carroll and Sakho together to see how it worked. From the opening of the second half had begun it seemed that the wide players had given up on tracking back and, for the most part, the ball was given away quickly and cheaply those few times we won possession. The goal galvanised the Gunners and it became a case of how many they would score; and with a different referee they could have added a few penalties to the haul of three scored from open play. We did manage two shots on target in the closing stages; decent strikes from Lanzini and Fernandes but both comfortably saved by an otherwise redundant Martinez.

Slow and Static Doesn’t Win The Race

When you look through a team-sheet that includes players such as Fonte, Collins, Noble, Snodgrass and (probably) Ayew you will find some of the slowest players currently operating in the Premier League. I’ve not yet decided whether Ayew is simply slow or merely lazy! Who thought it a good idea to fill a side with players so lacking in pace (and movement it has to be said)? Occasionally a player of sublime skill can overcome a lack of pace but, in the modern athleticism of Premier League, pace has become a prerequisite for almost any player. How can you play a game relying on breakaways when the team is so collectively slow? Why are other teams always on the move, creating space and anticipating the pass while our players remain static until they receive the ball? Despite significant expenditure on the squad we are largely back to a position where a major overhaul is required, not just the odd tweak. We are nowhere near one or two players away from a great team and the notion of signing players close to or over 30 is horrendously short-sighted.

What Next?

We now have two defining fixtures, home to Swansea and away at Sunderland, where a minimum of four points are required, preferably six. We are on our worst run since Avram Grant took us to the next level in 2011. Can we do it? Difficult to say based on the evidence of the manager’s poor decision making and selections of the past and the questionable pace and fitness of the players. We do have enough potential to see off both Swansea and Sunderland, subject to Antonio’s fitness. Antonio and Lanzini are our best hopes for survival and more game time for Fernandes would make sense. I am hoping that Swansea’s failure to beat Middlesbrough and their late capitulation to Tottenham will work to our advantage. I will spend the next few days looking for other straws worth clutching at.

Matchday: West Ham in the Arsenal Firing Line

Uncomfortably close to the relegation scrap West Ham face a difficult trip to The Emirates.

Arsenal West Ham After last night’s results, West Ham travel to The Emirates having dropped to 15^th place in the Premier League table. By the end of the day it is not unthinkable that we will have fallen further in the standings as we have become one of a handful of clubs competing to avoid the third relegation place. A few weeks back the spectre of relegation was viewed as a mathematical rather than a realistic possibility. With key players unavailable and with a dispirited and largely disorganised side on the slide after a run of four consecutive defeats it is surprising that there the alarm bells are not ringing even more loudly. As relegation rivals knuckle down to scramble clear through hard work we appear to be meandering dangerously and obliviously towards the drop. Whether Slaven Bilic can conjure up a cunning escape plan that does not rely on other club’s performing even worse remains to be seen.

Fellow under-fire manager Arsene Wenger must have uttered a silent “magnifique” when he spotted that his next opponents were the obliging eastenders. Although Arsenal’s record this season is identical to the same stage last time around they are further off the pace for their customary Champion’s League qualification. Having seen off the Hammers with aplomb at the London Stadium in December today’s encounter will be seen as a perfect opportunity to set off on a strong finish to the season.

Arsenal have their problems, but they are still a team with a lot of pace, a team you can’t afford to lose the ball against in your own half because the transition and pace they have up front is unbelievable. When they lose the ball they are very vulnerable because they leave a big space behind which you can use.

– Slaven Bilic

I was equally pessimistic going in to the corresponding fixture last year as West Ham, fresh from their tame Europa Cup exit, kicked off their Premier League campaign at The Emirates. As we know it turned out to be the first in a number of surprise results as a relatively unknown Dimitri Payet and a young Reece Oxford helped plot a shock 2-0 win for the Hammers. The future looked bright as the dark days of Fat Sam were replaced with the fresh air of an apparently bright and tactically astute new manager. How quickly football can change!

Head to Head

Last year’s victory was the solitary Hammer’s win in the last fifteen meetings against the Gunners, which otherwise have seen eleven defeats and just three draws. Both teams are on a sorry run of form with West Ham having taken just two points from the last six games and Arsenal slightly better with four.

There have, however, been a few memorable and unlikely successes away to Arsenal over the years including that permanent record of being the last away team to win at Highbury and the first to win at The Emirates. Getting a result tonight would rank alongside both events and could even go down in history as a minor great-escape for both the club and Slaven Bilic.

Team News

West Ham welcome back Michail Antonio for tonight’s game with his place in the treatment room being taken by Aaron Cresswell. There is much speculation about the return of Diafra Sakho with the player claiming he is raring to go while board and manager are voicing a more cautious stance with talk of a place on the bench. I wonder what Sakho is like at left back?

The major problem for West Ham is how their ageing central defenders and largely plodding midfield will contain an Arsenal side that attack with pace and movement. In terms of style Arsenal and Manchester City have much in common and both have a tendency to open up our defence with ease. To have any hope West Ham have to deny space in the central areas and to break quickly when in possession. I doubt we have the players or level of fitness to do either over the course of 90 minutes.

If we show the same spirit we showed against City, we will win football games. We have played 20 games unbeaten this season, and I think it’s a good opportunity to remind people we are not fighting to not go down – we are fighting to have a positive end to the season.

– Arsene Wenger

Arthur Masuaku coming in for Cresswell does not weaken the team but how the remaining spare part players (Ayew, Snodgrass, Feghouli) are scattered into the line-up will be revealing.

Arsenal are without Laurent Koscielny and have a problem in the keeper position with Cech out and Ospina doubtful; perhaps a recall for Pat Jennings or David Seaman would be enough on the night. Otherwise the Gunners are at full strength.

Man in the Middle

The referee is Martin Atkinson form West Yorkshire. Atkinson has refereed three previous West Ham games this season, a home defeat to Watford and away wins at Palace (where he sent off Cresswell) and Middlesbrough. In 33 games this season his record is 114 Yellow cards but just the two reds.

Hull 2 West Ham 1 – now we face a visit to the Emirates!

Another good game from Post, but this time he couldn’t save us. Little over 72 hours after our fourth successive Premier League defeat we now visit Arsenal!

Hull Review

Four consecutive defeats in a row. Two points from the last six league games. Tough statistics to look at, so we now need an easy fixture to turn the tide. And what could be better than a visit to the Emirates where we comfortably won last season, 2-0?

But first, back to the Hull game. Once again my belief in statistics often having little bearing on the outcome of a game was proved to be a sound one in a number of areas. We took the lead, and most teams that do this go on to win the game. A quick look back through the season, and I reckon that we have dropped around 20 points from a winning position. Without checking on all teams in the league, I think it would be safe to assume that no club has a worse record than that.

I haven’t counted up how many goals we have conceded from set pieces, but the Hull winner was headed in direct from a corner. In our recent winless run it happened twice against Leicester, once against both West Brom and Bournemouth, and again in this game. Why can we not defend set pieces? Time and time again this happens. Do we practice defending set pieces, especially corners at training sessions? Who is responsible for our defence coaching? Why can’t we learn from our mistakes? Rumour has it that Rio Ferdinand offered his services to assist with our defence coaching and was turned down. If that is true, then I find it amazing that we could reject such an offer with the state of our defending. Or are our players just not good enough? If we are not top of the league in conceding goals from set pieces then I’ll bet we are at least in a Champions League position.

Once again we conceded a relatively late goal. How many times have we conceded goals in the last few minutes of games? How many teams have let in more goals in the last ten minutes? I don’t have the figures but I reckon we will be close to the top of this league too. We have now conceded 54 league goals. That puts us in the top 3 of that statistic too. Even Sunderland and Middlesbrough, the two favourites for the drop with the bookies, have let in fewer goals than we have.

OK, so we had more possession than Hull, completed more passes, had more shots, and more shots on target. It doesn’t matter. We lost the game. By all accounts it was arguably Hull’s worst performance in recent games. But it didn’t matter did it? They are now just 6 points behind us. And it could conceivably be just 3 after this midweek round of games. We now have just six clubs beneath us in the table, and it could possibly be 4 before we face Swansea next weekend in a game that is now taking on massive importance for us. A few weeks ago we surely couldn’t have envisaged this game as a “six pointer”. And we all remember what happened when they visited “fortress Upton Park” in our penultimate game there last season, don’t we?

But we won’t go down. Just consider the bookies odds. The bottom three are all odds-on to be relegated, and Swansea are just a shade better than evens. We are quoted as seventh favourites to go down at around 20-1. Bookies never get it wrong do they? They knew Trump would win in America, and the result of the referendum on Brexit would be Leave, and that the Tories would win the last election with an overall majority, didn’t they? Mmmmm!

I’m afraid I’ve lost my optimistic hat, and fear for us against Arsenal. Ignoring last season, they often give us a bit of a hammering at their place, and I noticed they withdrew Theo Walcott before the end of their game against Manchester City last weekend to keep him fresh for his usual goal or two against us. Can we match his pace with our defence? I’m surprised they didn’t try to buy back Podolski in the last transfer window to save him for the West Ham fixture where he frequently did well.

All season I’ve been predicting victories for us, often without any real evidence other than my support of the team, and my trusty optimistic hat, to back it up. This time I think we could be on the end of a big defeat. Arsenal haven’t had a good season themselves, but still retain a chance, albeit a receding one, of finishing in the top four for the 21^st season in a row, or whatever the number is. It is looking extremely likely that they will finish fifth or sixth. Their fans are not happy and want the manager out. Or at least quite a number of them do according to various polls. Our manager still retains a good level of support considering the season we’ve had, but increasingly some fans are turning. And this week he received a vote of confidence from the board. And we all know what frequently happens shortly after that, don’t we?

I am hoping for an unlikely win, but fear that we will do well to keep Arsenal down to three. Perhaps my hope can overcome my fear? What are the chances? The bookies give us around an 8-1 chance of winning the game. That’s not very generous based on our recent form. But who knows? Perhaps we will keep a clean sheet and Carroll will add to his 50 Premier League goals tally? Carroll to score the first goal and a repeat of last season’s 2-0 win is 275-1. Worth a few bob?

5 Observations as West Ham go down to Hull

A fourth successive defeat leaves the Premier League trapdoor too close for comfort.

The Next Level

There has been a lot of talk about the club moving to the next level but not many have until now considered that the new level could be downwards into the Championship. Yet another abject performance and the surrender of a further three points from a winning position leaves West Ham just six points away from the last relegation place. By Wednesday the gap may well have narrowed to three. With Leicester and Palace on an upward trajectory the number of teams that we now need to outperform are becoming fewer. Although another three or four points may be enough for survival, current form makes it difficult to see where these might be coming from.

Another Fine Mess

Once again there was scant evidence of shape, tactics, organisation effort and fitness from the boys in claret and blue. Hull were not much better but they had spirit, work-rate and determination, particularly in the second half. Even with the injury situation the team selection was difficult to understand. A lack of pace throughout the team and little protection in midfield for the ageing centre back pairing was an open invitation to the opposition. One assumes that Bilic has had a falling out with Nordtveit who despite failing to impress seemed to be the obvious choice for a defensive midfield role, particularly if Noble was deemed not ready to return. Missing three weeks with a dead leg appears curious and suggests our treatment room is on a par with the training ground for effectiveness. Expect Manuel Lanzini to be ruled out for the season with a paper cut next.

Bits and Pieces Players

While other teams in the lower reaches of the Premier League rely on cohesion and hard work it feels like we expect to coast through games in the mistaken belief that we have better players who don’t really need to try too hard. The squad is being filled with an assortment of players of ordinary ability who fail to complement each other in any way. Feghouli is definitely not a Premier League footballer; he has no powers of anticipation and simply reacts should the ball come in his direction. Snodgrass is a luxury free-kick specialist who has now lost that spark of enthusiasm that he first arrived with. Ayew has managed to get in good scoring positions but makes little contribution in all-round play; whatever his best position is we have yet to find it. Randolph is not a Premier League Number 1. Even now we are being linked with even more players aged 30 and over which, if true, suggests a very worrying limited and short term view.

Can We Fix It?

There are different schools of thought as to where the blame lies for what has turned out to be a dreadful season. It is either the fault of the Board, the Stadium, the Manager, the Players or it is merely the West Ham way to be average, disappointing and under-performing. Of the above there is limited short term room for manoeuvre. The Boleyn has gone and, like it or not, the London Stadium is home for the foreseeable future. I can accept that moving to a new ground can dissipate home advantage but it doesn’t explain poor performance. The Board are the owners of the club and are going nowhere soon. The Daves have their faults but it is wrong to suggest that they have not backed their managers in the transfer market. At this stage of the season there is no quick fix to the playing staff and may, in fact, require several windows to shift out the latest collection of recently acquired dead wood. That leaves the choice of doing nothing (because it is fate) or replacing the manager.

Goodbye Slav (and thanks for some great results last season)

I think we can all agree that Slaven Bilic is a great bloke and has oodles of passion. He may even ‘get us’ whatever that means. I cannot, however, think of any footballing reasons why he should be kept on as manager. We have become a team that lacks a clear style of play or formation; that is short on tactics, fitness, pace and mobility; and that is stumbling from one disaster to another. There is no vision, plan or strategy to build for the future. A good manager makes the best of the resources that he has and Bilic has been unable to create a team unit that is greater than the sum of its parts. Past results unfortunately mean nothing as has been demonstrated by the situation at the resurgent Leicester. Even assuming we do manage to stay up with Bilic in charge then I can only see a repeat next season. The club needs a manager with ideas and with tactical and organisational excellence. This is not unfortunately Slaven Bilic. As much as I would have loved to see him succeed the wise decision now is to dispense with his services now rather than having a dead man walking until the end of the season.

Matchday: West Ham on the road to Hull

It’s no early April joke as an injury hit and out of form West Ham take the road to Hull.

Hull West Ham So where were we before that unwelcome international break came along? Oh yes, that’s right, a club in turmoil; just one win in six, three defeats on the bounce, one clean sheet in the last fourteen, Bilic in, Bilic out, sack the Board and supporters wishing for the season to end. Not only that but now we are a club in turmoil going into a game without our three best players, all injured last time out.

Any team desperate for relegation saving points would be eagerly scanning the fixture list for an encounter with a lacklustre, formless, shapeless and complacent mid-table West Ham. Hull will be no exception and will be confidently targeting a full complement of points from the game. They are a hard-working side who enjoyed an upturn in fortunes following the appointment of Marco Silva but come into this game off the back of 4-0 hammering by Everton and still sitting in the last of relegation places. It is three years since a Marco Silva side lost a home game.

I just concentrate on my job. I am totally focused on the next game. The speculation does not worry me. I am not reading it or making phone calls or whatever. We are in a position where we can have a good finish to the season. We have a lot of games to play and there is a lot to play for.

– Slaven Bilic

The home match against Hull was one of several lucky wins that played its part in putting the thinnest veneer of gloss on the season allowing the Hammers to scramble briefly into the top of half of the table. The man-of-the-match performance of the post has now joined Fat Sam’s ear-cupping into the annals of West Ham – Hull folklore. Slaven Bilic might want to consider putting a few extra posts on the bench today given that it wouldn’t noticeably weaken the squad.

Head to Head

A West Ham win today would be a first ever Premier League victory away to Hull and would also be the first time that this fixture has been won by the away side in the Premier League. I don’t imagine too much work for the record book writers this afternoon, however. West Ham have recorded a total of four away victories outside of the Premier League at Hull; the last of these a 2-0 success in 2011 with goals from Jack Collison and Sam Baldock.

Team News

With Winston Reid, Pedro Obiang and Michail Antonio absent through injury the greatest conundrum for Slaven Bilic would seem to be where to play Cheikhou Kouyate. Does he play in central midfield and allow the Dad’s Army pairing of Fonte and Collins to play at the back or does he play him as a central defender and combine Mark Noble (back from his holidays) with either Edmilson Fernandes or Havard Nordtviet in the centre of midfield. Although I would like to see Fernandes given more opportunity he is not really a defensive minded player and so maybe we will see a return for Nordtviet (who apparently did well for Norway during the break). Fonte and Collins can only work if Hull guarantee only to play high balls into the box. I’m not sure they will oblige and the idea of them facing pacey players without the covering of Obiang would be of great concern to an already leaky defence.

We have done well at home of late and we want to win again. The secret to our home form is work – hard work.

– Marco Silva

Further up-field we have Andy Carroll, still on his 49 Premier League goals mark, and Andre Ayew who is on a light mauve (if not full blown purple) patch of goal-scoring of late. Robert Snodgrass remains Hull’s leading scorer this season but has yet to pull the trigger (!) for his new club. We will remain lop-sided in attack without an effective left sided player given that both Ayew and Snodgrass prefer to play on the right or simply go walk-about.

Hull have a number of injuries including Mbokani and Mason but Michael Dawson may be fit enough to feature. Tom Huddleston begins a three match suspension following his dismissal at Everton.

The Man in the Middle

Today’s referee is Mike Jones from Chester (are there any southern based referees?). He is another of the occasional visitors to Premier League officialdom and the only previous encounter this season was in the EFL Cup defeat at Old Trafford. Jones was in charge of two West Ham league games last season; away trips to Norwich and Stoke.

In his 25 games this term he has awarded 97 Yellow and 4 Red cards.

West Ham v Hull Preview

This weekend West Ham visit the 2017 city of culture, the home to Britain’s oldest living man (who was 109 this week); a city with three professional football teams, although two use the oval ball. We are the only Premier League team without a point in the last three games, and need to reverse our recent form to ensure we don’t get dragged into the end of season relegation dogfight.

Noble Hull

At last the Premier League is back. OK I know it is only a fortnight since our last game, but it seems like an age, especially when you have sat through the tedium of England trying to break down the world-renowned defence of Lithuania. Fortunately, one of our ex-players, Jermaine Defoe, knows how to put the ball in the net.

And talking of tedium I am well and truly brassed off by the continual coverage on TV of the forthcoming (in about two years time at least) UK exit from the EU. I know this may well be momentous in our history, but I get very bored by news programmes showing the letter from our Prime Minister making its way to Brussels via the Channel Tunnel, and the continual speculation of how the negotiations might go. Let us just wait and see. And the jargon! Hard Brexit, soft Brexit, extreme Brexit, trigger, Article 50. I think I’ve heard the word “trigger” more times in the last few weeks than if I watched a whole box set of all the Only Fools and Horses episodes, or a re-run of all the Roy Rogers western films (ask an oldie!).

So what is the connection between our visit to Hull and Brexit? Although we only began the formal process of withdrawal from the EU with the triggering of Article 50 last Wednesday, one of the issues that will need to be resolved and agreed as part of the negotiations is the right of EU nationals to live and work in the UK. Some Premier League clubs might be affected more than others if we end up with a “hard Brexit”.

To date this season, 38% of Premier League appearances have been by non-UK EU nationals. But there is a massive variation by club. Chelsea top the list with 74%, followed by Manchester City with 59%, and then ourselves with 57%. On the face of it, when I look at our squad I find it hard to reconcile these figures, but according to http://www.football.london, that is the case. On the other hand, our opponents this weekend, Hull, would potentially be the least affected, as, along with Burnley, only 5% of appearances have been by non-UK EU nationals. The numbers may appear higher than one might expect, but a number of players have EU dual nationality e.g. Luiz (Chelsea) Brazilian / Portuguese, and in time these may be affected. To be honest, I can’t see it being an issue, but some believe it might. Again, we’ll just have to wait and see.

With just nine games of the season to go Hull are in trouble. They have won just six of their 29 games, and are currently three points adrift of safety. In addition they have the worst goal difference in the league (-32). It all looked so different for them with victories in their first two games of the season (against defending champions Leicester, and then away at Swansea), meaning they were joint top of the league at that early stage. But since then they have only recorded four further wins, all at home (to Southampton, Bournemouth, Liverpool and Swansea). Like ourselves they have drawn 6 games, so the only difference between West Ham and Hull this season is that we have won three more games than them, and lost three fewer. So, if we had lost three of the games that we won (think back, it could have easily happened!), then we would be where they are now!

Some say we have enough points in the bag already, but defeat in this game would leave us just six points (two wins) ahead of Hull who will still be in the bottom three. With games running out, we probably are OK already, but we need a win or two to be absolutely certain, and victory would be a timely boost. Defeat would mean four losses in a row, and no win for more than two months, hardly good news for the manager in discussions with the board regarding his future.

And finally, as a long term advocate of video assistant referees, I was pleased with the successful use of technology (as part of the official trial of its use), in the Spain victory over France in the international friendly in Paris this week. Firstly, Griezmann scored a goal for France which was offside, but the linesman didn’t raise his flag. The goal was disallowed by the video assistant who could see clearly that he was offside. Secondly, the reverse happened, as Spain’s second goal was flagged for offside (wrongly as seen on video), and the goal was awarded quite correctly. Video technology detractors are worried about the potential effect on the flow of the game, but both decisions were made in an instant and didn’t affect the flow whatsoever. What is more, two incorrect decisions which would have had an important effect on the result of the game were overturned. FIFA are considering the introduction of video technology in time for the 2018 World Cup in Russia. It can’t come soon enough in the Premier League in my opinion. How many additional points might we have gained in the last two or three seasons if it had been in use?

The Lawro Challenge – Week 30

Can a late surge topple Lawro from the summit of the predictor challenge.

Lawro Crystal Ball In Week 29, Rich scored 12 points, Geoff 5 points, and Lawro 9 points.

Rich has reduced Lawro’s lead at the top of the leaderboard, but he needs more weeks like this to make it a close contest by the end of the season. Can Lawro be caught?

In this challenge we award one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction is spot on.

We now proceed to week 30.


	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Total after 28 weeks	218	176	230
Score in week 29	12	5	9
Total after 29 weeks	230	181	239

Predictions – Week 30
	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Saturday
Liverpool v Everton	2-1	2-2	2-0
Burnley v Tottenham	1-2	1-2	1-1
Chelsea v Palace	2-0	0-0	2-0
Hull v West Ham	1-2	2-0	1-0
Leicester v Stoke	1-1	1-1	2-0
Man U v West Brom	2-0	2-1	2-0
Watford v Sunderland	2-1	2-0	2-1
Southampton v Bournemouth	2-1	3-1	1-1
Sunday
Swansea v Middlesbrough	2-0	1-0	2-0
Arsenal v Man City	1-2	0-2	1-1

West Ham 2 v 3 Leicester

We knew what might happen when we faced a team who hadn’t won an away game for almost a year!

West Ham Leicester My preview of the game on Saturday morning unfortunately prophesied what might happen in this game. We faced a Leicester side that hadn’t won an away Premier League game for almost a year. Why do we do this? They had managed just three draws away and ten defeats this season. But if you want to end a bad run of any kind, there is nothing better than facing West Ham. It happens time and time again.

If Forrest Gump’s mother had talked about our team rather than life, then she almost certainly would have said that watching West Ham is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you are going to get. You certainly didn’t know what you were going to get in the first seven minutes of the game, when we were two down before we had barely started. And you certainly didn’t know that in the second half we would have Leicester under the cosh to such an extent, that we could have even pulled off a most unlikely victory. We had them on the ropes, but a mixture of poor finishing and some excellent saves from Schmeichel in goal, meant that once again we trudged away from the London Stadium disappointed with the outcome.

The fact that both Reid and Obiang, two of our better players this season, had to leave the field earlier than we would have liked, added injuries to insult, but even this didn’t stop us producing one of the most exciting 45 minutes that we have witnessed from our team this season. It’s a pity that it had to follow the first half, which apart from Lanzini’s excellent free kick, was one of the most woeful. Why can’t we turn it on for a whole game? Why do we start so slowly? Why did Randolph react so slowly to Mahrez’s long range cross cum shot? Where were our defenders when Leicester’s free kick in the seventh minute led to any easy header for Huth? Why did we concede yet another goal from a corner? How did Carroll miss such a straightforward defensive header?

Both Randolph and Adrian can produce excellent shot-stopping saves at times but neither is dominant in the six-yard box facing corners and crosses. Unfortunately there are middle ranking teams in the Premier League such as West Brom, Stoke and Leicester for example, who realise this and can cross the ball close to the goal allowing their big players (usually defenders) to attack the ball without being challenged by the keeper. Compare this to Schmeichel in the Leicester goal who came and caught, or sometimes punched clear, any cross that was within about ten yards from the goal. We have history in this area. In 1967 we paid a world record fee for a goalkeeper (Bobby Ferguson) who was an excellent shot-stopper but couldn’t deal with crosses. Our two keepers have either got to work very hard on this aspect of their game, or alternatively we need to buy a keeper with a better all-round game.

Ayew scored again, to his credit, but missed simple chances in each half of the game when he failed to find the target. Unless you can learn to shoot on target you will not score. I’m afraid that he still doesn’t convince me, especially for the fee paid for him, and personally I look forward to the return of Sakho.

It was great to see a specialised right back playing in the right back position (it makes sense doesn’t it?), and I felt Byram had an excellent game. He linked well coming forward with Snodgrass who I thought did OK, although reading many comments afterwards I am in the minority re our signing from Hull.

There were excellent cameos from Masuaku, who might well be giving Cresswell a run for his place in the team, and Fernandes who always impresses me with his skill, pace, passing and enthusiasm, although they both came on at a time when we were in the ascendancy, which always helps.

With just nine games left after the international break (oh how I hate these breaks in the season!), we still might need a win or two to be safe from relegation. Games away to Hull and Sunderland, and at home to Swansea, with all three fighting for their lives, might be trickier than they would appear on paper, and we still have to face top half teams such as Arsenal (away), Everton (home), Stoke (away), Tottenham (home) and Liverpool (home). How many teams in the top half of the table have we beaten this season so far? Let us hope that when we visit Turf Moor on the final day of the season we are not looking over our shoulders. Burnley have an excellent home record and that won’t be an easy game either. We’ve probably just about got enough points in the bag, haven’t we?

5 Observations as Hammers are OutFoxed!

A horror opening sequence, a spirited response and glaring misses as West Ham lose 3 on the bounce.

Hammer House of Horror

Once again West Ham were accommodating hosts to a team looking to end of dismal sequence of results. Leicester got their first away league win of the season and maintained their record of not losing points from a winning position; West Ham maintained their average 2 goals per home game against the Foxes. The second half performance was possibly one of the best 45 minutes of the campaign. Such a shame, then, that the first half was down there with one of the worst. Has there been a consistent positive showing over a full 90 minutes this season; home or away? The opening 10 minute period was abysmal. Cresswell’s reluctance to stay close to Mahrez was negligent but Randolph’s attempt to save was awful. Time to rotate the gloves again, I think, and give Adrian another run. The defending for the second goal was collectively appalling; a total lack of organisation allowing Huth and a couple of his colleagues all the space they could ever want at the far post.

Is There Even a Plan A?

Many fans got the starting eleven that they wanted with Byram in at right back, Ayew in for Feghouli and Kouyate partnering Obiang in central midfield. Unfortunately while introductions were still being made we were two goals down and Reid was lost to injury. The relative roles of Lanzini, Antonio, Ayew (and later Snodgrass) was never really obvious to me. Maybe Bilic has a vision somewhere in his head of a fluid retro ‘totaalvoetbal’ approach but the players either don’t understand it or are unable to execute it. Antonio occasionally gave the impression of being the left sided midfield player but only for brief spells, otherwise it was a no-wide-man-zone. Leicester had a shape and game plan which they stuck to throughout whereas West Ham’s organisation was close to anarchy, particularly in the first half. Sometimes I wonder whether the team talk goes beyond fist bumping. The thinness of our squad was also apparent by a comparison of the two benches. Leicester had Slimani, Musa and Gray to call on as attacking options, West Ham had Snodgrass.

More Injuries

West Ham ended the day with injuries to Reid and Obiang both of which looked bad by anyone’s standards but judging by West Ham experience look like at least 6 weeks out . Antonio also picked up an injury that will keep him out of the England squad and the opportunity of a first cap. Reid and Obiang have been two of our best performers this season but neither had great games yesterday before going off. Like most I expected Ginge to be the like-for-like replacement for Reid but moving Kouyate back was probably the right decision in the circumstances with Vardy’s pace to cope with. No arguments either with Fernandes on for Obiang. Although he is not a holding midfielder Fernandes give the impression of an accomplished and intelligent player always looking to do something meaningful with the ball rather than simply playing it to the nearest teammate. His introduction did coincide with Leicester tiring but nonetheless was still an encouraging performance.

Holding on to The Jewel

Having gone two goals down we didn’t really threaten until Lanzini conjured up a little free-kick magic in the 20^th minute. For a while it looked like a lifeline that we could turn to our advantage but hope was dashed by the third Leicester goal. Carroll, normally one of our most reliable defenders at corners, completely missing the ball with is head and Vardy scoring a poachers goal in the ensuing scramble; something our own strikers were unable to emulate later in the game. Lanzini has emerged from the shadows to become a quality creative force in midfield; always positive, looking to go in the right direction and posing problems for opposition defences. Very quickly he has risen to the status of far too good for a team in lower-mid table and it would be no surprise if someone came in to steal The Jewel in the summer.

How did they do?

Ayew scored his 4^th goal in seven games when he nodded home West Ham’s second yesterday but his performance will be best remembered for the shocking miss late on from Antonio’s pass. With the whole goal at his mercy and the keeper stranded he inexplicably went for power and blasted over the top. I would have to think very hard to remember an easier chance being squandered; Carroll came close in added time but you have to give Schmeichel much of the credit to for that one. Despite the goals I am still to be convinced as to what Ayew brings to the team with his all round game. He is another with the inclination to play one touch lay-offs/ passes much of the time rather than getting involved in build up play. While Ayew, glaring miss apart, did OK, Snodgrass was a big disappointment. Played on the right because he doesn’t have the pace to go round the full-back, he continually abdicated responsibility to Byram to get a cross in. Byram himself had a decent game and must surely have warranted a run at right back to prove himself. Fernandes should also be given more opportunity than the usual 5 minutes at the end to show what he can do. There was also an encouraging cameo from Masuaku which could allow the under-performing Cresswell to pack his suitcase and join Noble at the seaside for a few weeks.

Ratings: Randolph (4), Byram (7), Reid (5), Fonte (5), Cresswell (5), Kouyate (5), Obiang (5), Ayew (6), Lanzini (8), Antonio (7), Carroll(6) Subs: Snodgrass (4), Fernandes (6), Masuaku (6)