Author: Richard Bennett

West Ham face the visit of Manchester United in the final game before Christmas. But what happened on Wednesday night?

Have you ever wondered why clubs such as West Ham don’t take the Carabao Cup as seriously as they might?

Getting to the final of the Carabao Cup or the FA Cup gives fans a day out at Wembley. The winners of each competition are guaranteed a place in Europe the following season, and for most clubs, including West Ham it is their best chance of being involved there. So why don’t clubs take domestic cup competitions as seriously as you might expect, and definitely not as seriously as most fans would expect them to?

It can only be money? The prize money on offer for winning the Carabao Cup is £100,000. The runners up get £50,000, semi-finalists £25,000 and so on. With the amount of money washing around at the top level of English football this is only peanuts isn’t it? The FA Cup is 20 times more lucrative with the winners picking up £2 million in prize money but still clubs don’t take this competition as seriously as Premier League games. Why?

The winners of the Premier League will collect £44 million in prize money and this decreases by £2.2 million for each position in the final table. Even this is small fry compared to the money from TV revenue, both home and abroad and all the other revenue streams available to clubs. If West Ham finish the season in eighth place the prize money from the Premier League is £28.6 million. Finishing just a place lower in ninth would be £26.4 million. So for West Ham (for example) finishing eighth instead of ninth is more lucrative than winning both the FA Cup and Carabao Cup combined. Heaven forbid we drop any lower in the league by fielding our strongest side to try to progress in the competition!

Ask any fan if they would sooner win one or other of the domestic cup competitions (or even reach the final for a day out at Wembley) and only finish ninth in the league rather than eighth. Who remembers final positions in the league when you are in the pack? But we all remember our days out at Wembley, especially when we lift a trophy.

Liverpool were there for the taking on Wednesday. You’d like to think so anyway. So why did our back four include Mavropanos, Ogbonna and Johnson?. Why were Benrahma and Fornals in the starting eleven? Where were JWP, Paqueta and Emerson? David Moyes had never won at Anfield in 20 visits with four different clubs. Liverpool hadn’t been beaten at home since last February. And then only by Real Madrid. We certainly weren’t going to come close with that line-up. And so it proved. Were you surprised? I wasn’t.

Jarrod Bowen, described by Klopp as one of his favourite players, took his goal well but what else was there for the thousands of Hammers fans to cheer after travelling to Merseyside on a December evening the week before Christmas? The lack of ambition in the first half was demonstrated by lack of touches in the opposition box. We lost this particular statistic 23-1. Amazingly we were only a goal down at the break. We managed our first shot on target after 77 minutes and this was our goal. Did we have a sniff at 3-1? The manager obviously thought so and took off Alvarez to be replaced by Ings! Game on? Don’t make me laugh.

We’ve never won the League Cup. We’ve been runners-up twice but with this lack of ambition I can’t see it happening soon. There were a lot of grumbles on social media but surprisingly to me some of our fans didn’t seem at all bothered. Our best three years ever, just look at our record in the last nine games, we’re marching on in Europe etc.

So close to a Wembley final with only Chelsea, Fulham and Middlesbrough to stop us, and yet so far. David Moyes is used to having no success at Anfield and was waving the white flag before we even kicked off.

So two days before Christmas and Manchester United come to town. I don’t think we’ll see JWP and Paqueta on the bench. We’ll put out our strongest side possible. Because money talks and finishing eighth rather than perhaps ninth or lower is considered to be more important by some than winning the Carabao Cup. I’ll be supporting the team as I always do and have done for the past 65 years. I fervently hope we give the Red Devils a hiding. But I think I’m entitled to feel massively disappointed by Wednesday night’s effort!

Seasons greetings. Have a great Christmas and a happy New Year!

What West Ham performance will we get when Wolves visit the London Stadium on Sunday?

One like last Sunday at Fulham or a repeat of the excellent show on Thursday against Freiburg?

The Forrest Gump quotation suitably amended comes into play once again – “West Ham are like a box of chocolates, you never know what you are going to get.” The debacle at Fulham last weekend was a shocker wasn’t it? A 5-0 drubbing and a terrible performance. Some fans writing on social media reckoned it was our worst ever. As a supporter for 65 years I would say that I’ve seen a few games like that over the years, but yes it was certainly near the top of the league of poor efforts by our team. A few excuses were trotted out regarding illness etc. but really there was little excuse for the shambles that we witnessed.

The following Thursday we had an important Europa League game against a German side higher in the Bundesliga than we are in the Premier League. They came into the game in good form with wins under their belt and as the top scorers in Group A, quite probably the top scorers in the competition as a whole. It was a one match shootout where we held the advantage (following our win in Germany) that a win or draw would see us top the group and go straight through to the round of 16 avoiding a potentially tricky two-legged play-off tie.

The West Ham team was changed a little in personnel from the weekend but totally unrecognisable in terms of performance. After a slow opening few minutes we turned on the style and entertainment that have been so lacking for the past year or more in the league. Not in Europe of course where we have won more games than any other team in European competitions (other than perhaps Real Madrid?). We joined an exclusive club of Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United, becoming the sixth English club to top their European league for three consecutive seasons. Does that mean we are now one of the elite big six?

Two superb goals came from Kudus and Alvarez who turned in a man of the match performance before being taken off when the job was done in the second half. I’m not a big fan of assist statistics but they do mean something when the assists are as good as they were in this game. Alvarez to Kudus and Bowen to Alvarez were both inch perfect and the goals themselves were a pleasure to watch. We came close other times too, Bowen a yard offside for one, the bar struck by Paqueta with a fierce right foot shot in the opening minutes, and an easy chance that Bowen should have buried. The whole side looked good before easing up in the second half with the game over and the introduction of the (mandatory) substitutes.

The TV commentator commented that Ings was very important in the dressing room at West Ham. Am I alone in thinking that perhaps he should stay there? The substitutions disrupted the rhythm and the entertainment ceased as the game headed towards its conclusion. Ings was a fine goalscorer before he joined West Ham. What has happened? Is it to do with him or the West Ham style of play? Answers on a postcard. At least Moyes got around the criticism of sending Ings on as a substitute before Mubama by sending them both on at the same time in this game. I can’t see that tactic being tried again.

On the whole a very pleasing and entertaining evening but what West Ham will we see when Wolves arrive on Sunday? Following Wolves promotion to the top flight five years ago they had the upper hand in encounters against us at first but in recent times we have come out on top winning the last three. There’s no way the game can end in a goalless draw that’s for sure. We haven’t had a clean sheet in the league since September; Wolves have only had one clean sheet in their last 24 away games.

The worrying statistics for this game include the fact that Wolves haven’t won a Sunday game in their past ten league games played on this day of the week and have lost their last six Sunday away games. Sunday certainly hasn’t been a day of rest for West Ham as this will be our 50th Premier League game on the day in not much more than two years! Apparently that is 13 more than any other club! And our record when playing Sunday games following a European match on a Thursday night isn’t the best is it? David Moyes also has a very positive record when it comes to home games against Wolves. His positive records often come a cropper though. Before last week’s game I wrote that Moyes hadn’t lost in the last 13 times he had faced Fulham. Oh dear!

I’ve absolutely no idea what to expect in this game. I just hope that we see the same West Ham that performed so stylishly and entertained us on Thursday night, particularly in the first half. Not a repeat of Fulham please. What are the chances?   

It’s happened again to Tottenham as West Ham Hit Back – Moyesball 2 AngePostball 1. The third London derby in a row is a trip across the capital to face Fulham.

It’s happened again. It’s happened again. Why does it keep happening to poor old Tottenham? Five points clear at the top of the table followed by five games in which they held the lead only to let the advantage slip in every one. West Ham can’t be too complacent because we are in the top half of the ‘letting it slip’ league this season but not in the same class as our North London neighbours who are well clear at the top of this particular league.

We go into the away game at Fulham on Sunday unbeaten in our last six, with six wins in our last eight games (in all competitions) retaining our position of ninth in the table. Ten points from our last four league games matches the ten points that we picked up in our opening four fixtures this season before the blip in between. Before any games were played this weekend, after 15 games the league table has now developed into two divisions, the top and bottom half, or rather the top nine and the bottom eleven. For a while it looked as though we would struggle to maintain a place in the top section but we are hanging on at the bottom of that group and hopefully we can stay there. We are just three points away from Tottenham who are fifth.

The contrast between the managers and players at the end of Thursday night’s game couldn’t have been more pronounced. Postecoglou and Son both seemed to be on the verge of tears whereas you couldn’t wipe the smiles from the faces of JWP, Bowen and Moyes. The first half was as one-sided (in terms of possession and intricate pretty passing) as you could get (at one stage the possession stats read 91%-9%). We couldn’t retain the ball and Tottenham kept coming at us. But what did they actually create? How many real goal scoring opportunities? Not a lot, hardly any, and Fabianski was confident and barely troubled. In fact Paqueta had perhaps the best chance in the whole of the first half but failed to get a relatively simple header on target which would have made the scores level at the break. The goal that we had conceded from Romero’s header should certainly have been avoided.

Our second half performance was much improved although there was an element of good fortune with the goals. Bowen didn’t even realise at first that the double ricochet off Romero and Davies had broken to him and left him with a clear chance, but he duly obliged with his right foot (which he admitted after he was worried about) to notch his seventh goal in seven consecutive away games, an outstanding feat by any standards. More poor Spurs defending with a dodgy backpass and a goalkeeper who should perhaps have collected the ball left JWP with a clear opportunity which he took at the second attempt. You know how he enjoys the assist statistics – perhaps he purposely hit the post first so that he could claim the assist as well as the goal, or perhaps the home side’s left-hand post will be credited with the assist!

The anti-Moyes / Moyes luvvies swingometer swung towards the latter group in this game but the doubters still remain and wonder what a team comprising Kudus, Paqueta, Bowen, JWP, Alvarez, the revitalised Soucek, and the ever-improving Emerson might achieve with a more positive approach.

Before this weekend’s games Fulham sat comfortably in the middle of the 10th-15th (top half of the lower half) group separated by just three points. In ninth place we were five points clear of tenth place Chelsea and hopefully we can maintain or extend that. As always there are some worrying statistics ahead of the game – you know the ones – where we have past performances that are very good and could ‘come a cropper’ on Sunday.

For example, Fulham have lost five of their last six home Premier League derby games against London sides failing to score each time. In fact they’ve gone 11 London derbies now (home and away) since their last win. Along with wins over Southampton and Tottenham (them again!) West Ham have won more Premier League games against Fulham than against any other teams. Even more worrying perhaps is the fact that David Moyes hasn’t lost in the last 13 times he has faced Fulham. This includes his time here, at Manchester United and Everton.

For those who like to compare records, West Ham have won 7 games this season and lost 5. Fulham have won 5 and lost 7, hence the six-point gap between the teams. We have scored 26 and Fulham have conceded 26. The records are not too dissimilar, with the two games that we have won that Fulham have lost being the difference.

I’d like to think that we can collect another three points in this game, but we don’t have a very good record when playing on a Sunday following a Thursday night game. It would be great to reverse this trend as there will be another one coming up next week too. COYI!

Another Thursday night game for West Ham, but not in Europe this time

The games are coming thick and fast now. All 20 Premier League teams have fixtures on Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday this week, all available to view on Amazon, and ours is the final game to kick off on Thursday when we visit Tottenham.

On Sunday we faced Crystal Palace and once again we scored the opening goal of the game. When I remember games against Palace I think back to two of the best West Ham goals that I remember. One of them was the stunning overhead kick scored by Andy Carroll at the London Stadium from the cross by (Antonio?). I haven’t seen it again for some time but it was definitely one of the great goals of its type, every bit as good as the one scored by a Manchester United player recently which has sent all the pundits into raptures, and certainly superior to Rooney’s famous one which came off his shin. The other memorable one was the free kick from Payet in one of the final games at the Boleyn Ground that dipped and swerved and went into the goal at the side where the Palace keeper stood and barely moved. Our opening goal this time wasn’t quite in the same class but was an excellent team goal just the same. Kudus flicked the ball over a Palace player, it went to Paqueta to JWP who then produced an inch perfect 50 yard pass to Coufal who then cut the ball back for the inrushing Kudus to sweep the ball into the net with a slight deflection.

If my memory serves me well this is the ninth time in our 14 league games this season where we have scored the first goal in the game. Holding on to the lead after going ahead scoring the first goal would mean 27 points to date plus any picked up after coming from behind. Alas our total is 21 points after Palace equalised via Edouard following a gift from our Greek defender Mavropanos whose woeful backpass was shockingly short and the game ended 1-1.

The famous saying is to ‘beware Greeks bearing gifts’. The phrase originates from Greek Mythology, specifically the story of the Trojan War in which the Greeks left a Trojan horse at the gates of Troy. The Trojans thought this was a gift but the ‘horse’ was filled with Greek soldiers who emerged from the beast and destroyed the city of Troy. Perhaps our Greek defender had fooled them by lulling them into a false sense of security by then going up the other end and bagging a hat trick himself? Alas this was not to be and the gift really was a gift.

When we last won a league game at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in April 2019, less than five years ago the scorer of our goal was Antonio. We became the first visiting team to win at their new stadium and Antonio became the first visiting player to score there. It just goes to show how teams evolve in a relatively short period of time these days in that probably none of our starting eleven that day will start the game this week. The team that day was Fabianski, Fredericks, Balbuena, Diop, Masuaku, Rice, Anderson, Noble, Snodgrass, Antonio, Arnautovic. Our bench that day comprised Adrian, Zabaleta, Ogbonna, Obiang, Wilshere, Hernandez and Perez. Of the 18 players only Fabianski and Ogbonna will be involved, and both almost certainly on the bench.

Our previous league win there was the infamous 3-0 victory in 2013 where Morrison scored the third goal running from our half to seal the victory. Apart from a couple of League Cup wins, they are our only wins there in the last ten seasons. We go into this game unbeaten in our last five, with five wins in our last seven games (in all competitions) retaining our position of ninth in the table. Seven points from our last five league games is superior to Tottenham’s recent record of just one win and one draw in the last five.

The debate over the style of football continues to rage on and the manager continues to be attacked frequently on social media, although many continue to defend his record quoting win percentages, a European trophy won, and continuous involvement in Europe. The question remains, with the squad now at our disposal should we not be doing even better? Social media attracts extremes of opinion both for and against and is only a small proportion of West Ham supporters but I wonder how much support the manager has from the fan base as a whole?

Geoff made the point recently that only pundits or others watching from afar believe that we are enjoying a decent season. Shouldn’t we be happy with sitting in ninth place in the league, progressing nicely in the EFL Cup, a favourable home draw in the third round of the FA Cup, qualified for the knockout stages in Europe with a game to go, and with as many European victories as any club anywhere in Europe in the last two seasons? Or the alternative view that despite this, those of us who watch every game are not happy with the apparent negative approach, poor tactics, and lack of entertainment on offer?

Personally, I am inclined towards the latter view whilst not wishing to diminish the achievements since the manager arrived. As someone who has been watching West Ham since 1958 I can recall some success but the best memories come from being entertained. I remember the entertainment on offer when we won the FA Cup in 1963-64 despite a final league position of 14th, or the following season when we won in Europe and finished 9th (our current position). One of my favourite ever seasons was 1968-69, the entertainment was superb, we scored four or more goals seven times, including a couple of fives, a seven and an eight! We finished eighth which was OK but the key thing was we were regularly entertained royally.

The cup winning season of 1974-75 was entertaining at times, at one stage we scored 20 goals in a four game, 10-day period, but we only finished 13th, and some of the best and most exciting games came in our European run to the final the following season, although we only won one game after Christmas and finished a lowly 18th.

The FA Cup win of 1980 as a second-tier side despite only finishing seventh in the league was memorable as was the record-breaking promotion to the top tier the following season when we won so many games in an entertaining fashion (which included losing in the final of the League Cup). Our most successful season in the top tier ever was our third-place finish in 1985-86. It was disappointing to go out of the FA Cup at the quarter final stage at home to Sheffield Wednesday, but that season gave us great entertainment as well as success. When Allardyce was in charge we had some limited success in regaining and consolidating our position in the top-flight but I hated the football on offer.

Memories are made from both success and being entertained and at times in the past 65 years I remember having both. It is possible to have both results and entertaining performances. The manager seems to believe that the former precludes the latter. Perhaps a more positive approach and forward-thinking man in charge might achieve both?

Can West Ham extend the Clarets winless run at Turf Moor in the Claret and Blue derby this weekend?

Once again the international break has come along to spoil the flow of the Premier League season. There have only been twelve games played and we have already had three of them! It’s an absolute nonsense in my opinion and even more so for anyone who chose to watch England’s final two qualifying games for next year’s European Championships. Fortunately I was too busy watching some paint drying and therefore missed the spectacle of a 2-0 home win against mighty Malta and a point gained in a 1-1 draw in North Macedonia. Did I miss anything? Those I’ve spoken to who did view the games suggested not.

I’m not too sure of the injury situation for this week’s visit to Turf Moor but at one stage it was looking decidedly bad. Antonio had to be substituted after 20 minutes in Jamaica’s game, Bowen had to withdraw from the England squad and Kudus had a problem too. Hopefully it is not as bleak as was initially reported but it does make you think back to the summer transfer window, and the astonishing decision to not strengthen the squad in an attacking sense. It was inexplicable, perhaps inexcusable to sell Scamacca and not replace him before the current campaign got underway. And looking ahead to the beginning of next year and the African tournament, we could potentially lose Kudus, Benrahma and Cornet for a time. In the coming winter transfer window we have got to add to our attacking potential and hopefully with footballers who fit into the system. Perhaps Mr Steidten has a few aces up his sleeve. I certainly hope so.

In any event the comeback win against Forest in the final fixture before the break after a lacklustre first half performance means that with just under a third of the season completed we have crept back into the top half of the table in ninth position. And we sit just three points below Newcastle in seventh, the last of the qualifying places that can be achieved via league position.

There are plenty of worrying statistics to consider in advance of our trip to Burnley. Somehow we often manage to help sides to end poor runs of one kind or another. Perhaps the standout one is the fact that Burnley have played six home games this season and lost all of them. We are on a record breaking run ourselves from a West Ham point of view; our last seven games against promoted sides have been wins – we’ve never done that before. Two records that could end if it goes wrong this weekend.

I see that James Ward Prowse is the leading player in the Premier League for assists this season so far with nine. And despite his consistency over a long period and his standout form he can’t find a place in Gareth Southgate’s England squad, even one that was depleted with injuries. How Kalvin Phillips gets in despite barely playing for his club, and Jordan Henderson too now he has gone abroad for the money in a poor league is beyond me.

I see that Everton have fallen foul of Financial Fair Play regulations and been docked a record 10 points for doing so. I’m not sure too many of us fully understand the regulations, and I guess the Everton bosses didn’t either to allow themselves to get into this position. Or perhaps they did and thought they’d get away with it. They become only the third Premier League side to be deducted points after Middlesbrough; 3 points for failing to turn up for a game in 1996-97. They were ultimately relegated just two points from safety. Portsmouth went into administration in 2009-10, were deducted nine points and were relegated after finishing bottom a long way from safety. The omens aren’t great for Everton although the ten-point deduction leaves them only two points from safety at this early stage, mainly due to the poor results obtained by the promoted sides, Luton, Sheffield United and Burnley.

Many believe that we were lucky in 2006-07 to escape a points deduction when we were fined £5.5 million in respect of the signing of Tevez and Mascherano, breaking the rule regarding third party ownership. We subsequently agreed to pay Sheffield United a compensation settlement in the range of around £20 million intended to address their financial losses after they were relegated. Had we been docked just three points we would have gone down on goal difference. There is a kind of irony in the Everton points deduction in that the three man independent commission which punished them included Nick Igoe who was in charge of West Ham’s finances at the time of the Tevez / Mascherano affair.

We’ve got a busy time in the lead up to Christmas which is now just a month away. In that time we’ve got half a dozen league games against Burnley, Palace, Tottenham, Fulham, Wolves and Manchester United, as well as the final two Europa League group games and an EFL quarter-final tie at Liverpool. The league games will be very important to ensure that we stay in the race for European places next season. A poor run now could rule us out of contention leaving us to settle for mid table. It would be great to get the four points needed to top the group in Europe to progress into the knock-out stages in the second half of the season too. And wouldn’t it be brilliant if we can upset the odds at Anfield and move into the semi-finals of the EFL Cup.

Have we got the depth of squad to achieve these goals? Will we splash out in the window to help us to kick on in all fronts? How will we be affected by the loss of players to the African Nations Cup? Will we still be in the mix in the race for European qualification, and still in the cup competitions when we enter 2024? Will we go all out in the FA Cup when the third round gets underway in January? If we do have serious striker problems on Saturday will Mubama get more than five minutes playing time or will the manager stick with Ings? Can the manager adopt a more adventurous approach, or will his normal caution remain? Will the second half of the season peter out with little to play for?

An important month lies ahead beginning with Burnley. Can we inflict on them their seventh consecutive home defeat of the season? Will we extend our record against promoted sides to make it eight consecutive wins? Will we have any fit strikers? COYI!

Ward Prowse’s Perfect Precision Pass, Paqueta Pounces, Olympiacos Overcome.

West Ham march on in Europe, but can they get back to winning ways in the league when Forest visit the London Stadium on Sunday?

VAR hasn’t received the best press in recent times. But West Ham were thankful for its intervention on Thursday evening. If we were relying on the naked eye of the assistant referee then the result of the game against the Greeks from Piraeus would most likely have been a goalless draw. West Ham were celebrating when Paqueta pounced to volley home Ward Prowse’s wonderful precision pass over the top. A beautifully crafted pass and finish was about to be chalked off when the flag was raised to indicate offside. But thanks to the VAR check Ortega was seen to be closer to his own goal than our brilliant Brazilian and the goal quite rightly stood. And how the players celebrated in front of the visiting Greek supporters, milking their revenge win. West Ham were not happy with how their opponents celebrated their win two weeks ago, and vengeance for that was high on the player’s minds prior to the game.

Thankfully Manager Moyes had made changes from the weakened team he put out that lost the reverse fixture a fortnight ago. The win leaves us at the top of the group on the basis of head-to-head against Freiburg who also had a comfortable win over Backa Topola on the night. A win against the Serbians at the end of November would mean a draw against the Germans in the final group game in mid-December would be enough to clinch top spot in the group. And top spot is important in this competition with the runners up facing a game against a third placed side dropping down from the Champions League.

Division of opinion about the merits of the manager continues in the build up to the kick-off against Forest on Sunday. Recent poor domestic form with three consecutive defeats has seen us slip into the bottom half of the table where we are now twelfth with 14 points from our eleven games, just one point and one place above our visitors who have won one and drawn three of their last five games.

A worrying statistic is that Forest have won only one away game against West Ham in almost 40 years. How we manage to end those poor runs of our opponents is a trait we seem to specialise in. In fairness however the sample size is not as big as it might be against many other teams as we haven’t always been in the same division. Another one to watch out for coming up soon – Burnley have now lost six consecutive home games – you know who their next home game is against after the International break, don’t you?

Forest’s three wins this season have been against Sheffield United, Chelsea, and last week against in-form Aston Villa. They have only lost four games (compared to our five) although all four have been on their travels. We don’t have a good record in games that follow Europa League fixtures on Thursday nights and have yet to win one on a following Sunday in this campaign.

Thanks to the BBC I was made aware that the manager who holds the record for the most defeats in Premier League matches is Harry Redknapp with 238. I’ll leave you to guess who follows close behind on 237. Another unwanted record on its way shortly I reckon.

If we are serious about becoming a top-half team then this is a game that we surely need to win. I did suggest something similar prior to the recent Everton game too. Look what happened there.

It’s a frustrating watch at the moment with all the attacking talent we have at our disposal. As Geoff pointed out recently, recent league results have been abysmal. Just four points from the last seven games, a rate of return that if continued to the end of the season would result in a total of 30 points, and a likely relegation struggle.

Here is a paragraph from my article prior to the recent Everton game:

I was interested when reading one of the social media groups of West Ham fans whose members, looking at our upcoming games, Everton, Brentford, Forest, Burnley, and Palace, were making predictions as to how many points we would be collecting from those five ‘easy’ (on paper) games. There are many optimists out there who were saying 15, and perhaps 13 while others were taking a more realistic approach, some pessimists even going as low as 3, or even lower in a couple of cases. The ‘optimists’ were then ‘attacking’ the ‘pessimists’ or ‘realists’ accusing them of not being ‘true’ supporters, suggesting they should get behind the team, or go and support someone else. The other group fought back suggesting they were entitled to their opinion and the exchange was a good example of extreme opinions that exist in many social media areas.

Two games down and no points yet I wonder how many points we will end up collecting now from that run of supposedly ‘easy’ games?

Bookmakers have us as one of eight teams who are odds on to collect three points in their games this weekend, the others being Arsenal, Manchester United, Newcastle, Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, and Manchester City. The other 7 are in the current top eight of the Premier League. Only Tottenham of the top 8 are not priced at odds on to win their game. Do you have the same belief as the bookmakers that odds on is a true reflection of our chances to win this game? So many of our games this season have ended 3-1, both wins and defeats. Perhaps a 3-1 win on Sunday is my prediction with no great conviction or supporting evidence. What are the chances?

West Ham are like a box of chocolates, you never know what you are gonna get

This isn’t the first time I’ve used a slight distortion of a famous quote from Forrest Gump ‘My mama always said life was like a box of chocolates’. The same is true if you follow West Ham. You never know what you are going to get from one season to the next, from one game to the next, and even from the first half of a game to the second half.

We came into the EFL Cup game on Wednesday night on the back of a three match losing run, and were tamely beaten by lowly Everton last Sunday. What a contrast when we faced high-flying Arsenal, albeit with some of their star players such as Saka, Odegaard, Martinelli, and of course the returning Rice warming the bench.

It was not the return to the London Stadium that our last captain would have imagined for his first time back. The Arsenal manager Arteta paid the price of believing that some of his fringe players would be too good for West Ham. Perhaps he’d been lulled into a false sense of security by watching our woeful performance against the Toffeemen just three days beforehand. He, and the 62,000 in the stadium and those watching at home, didn’t expect a Hammers performance that would be a night to remember. We’ve had lost of memorable games in the League Cup in the past, perhaps the 7-0 demolition of a strong Leeds side in 1966 being the pick, but this was most enjoyable too.

Personally I was saddened a little by the booing of our former captain, but everyone is entitled to express their opinion, even if there may have been an element of sheep mentality. The £105 million that we received from Arsenal has enabled us to add some excellent players to the ranks in Kudus, Alvarez and Ward Prowse. In addition to Paqueta and Bowen we have a group of footballers who excite me. I love to watch them, and all apart from the former Southampton captain, who was given a rest until the final 10 minutes of the game, turned it on against the Gunners. It was a far cry form the boring spectacle we had witnessed against Everton.

Kudus was my man of the match, closely followed by Paqueta, Alvarez and Bowen, all worthy of at least 8 out of 10 on the night. In fact I thought that the whole team had good games. In some ways I was surprised by the selection of Paqueta and Alvarez given that they are suspended for the game at Brentford.

We were perhaps fortunate that there was no VAR to intervene when White headed the ball into his own net after quarter of an hour, as Soucek could be clearly seen pulling Ramsdale’s shirt. But I guess so much of that goes on in penalty areas week in and week out.

The move and goal of the night involved an exquisite diagonal long range crossfield pass from Aguerd to Kudus, followed by excellent control before firing the ball into the bottom corner. Bowen added a third and even West Ham fans could then begin to relax a little (but not entirely given our history – remember the game against Arsenal a couple of seasons ago?). Odegaard pulled one back in the 96th minute but by then it didn’t matter.

With just a couple of days rest the attention turns to a visit to the Brentford Community Stadium on Saturday. Brentford are now in their third season in the Premier League, with an excellent manager in Thomas Frank leading them to 13th and 9th placed finishes in their first two campaigns. In a way they are a bit like Brighton in that they seem to be a bogey team in recent times. We finally beat Brighton this season at the eleventh attempt in the league and hopefully it won’t take us that long to secure a victory over Brentford.

We did win there in the FA Cup last season, but the four Premier League matches between the two sides have resulted in four Brentford wins. In each of the four games they scored two goals, whereas we have only managed to score once (in the four games combined) when Jarrod Bowen scored in the 2-1 defeat, the first time we played them in the Premier League in October 2021.

In two of those victories the Brentford goals were scored by Mbuemo and Wissa, two mainstays of my Fantasy Football team this season, who continue to be a threat. In fact Mbuemo has scored three goals against us in those four games so he enjoys playing against West Ham it would seem. Let’s hope he doesn’t do a Calvert-Lewin this weekend.

Both ourselves and Brentford have made similar starts to the season; we are ninth on 14 points whereas Brentford are tenth on 13. Both teams have scored 16 goals in the ten games played, but Brentford have only conceded 12 compared to our 17.

If the pattern of recent meetings is followed then Brentford will score twice and win the game. But a lot will depend on what West Ham team turns up. If we perform like we did against Everton then a defeat will be the most likely outcome. If we can replicate the Arsenal performance then the outcome might be different. West Ham are definitely like a box of chocolates; you never know what you are going to get. That is so often the case from one game to the next. But despite the absence of Alvarez and Paqueta perhaps we can put an end to our dismal run against Brentford on Saturday?.

We’ve been involved in six matches this season that have ended 3-1. Three were wins and three were defeats. Will the Brentford hoodoo continue or (as in the case of Brighton) will it come to an end? Will the final score be 3-1? But to who?

Matchday 10 will mean a quarter of the season completed, and sees the visit of lowly Everton to face West Ham at the London Stadium

Someone once said that you shouldn’t bother looking at the league table until at least ten games have been played. At that time teams would have faced roughly half of the other teams in the league, hopefully a representative sample in terms of difficulty, and you should by then have a good idea as to how the season is progressing, and how it may end.

Of course, even at that stage there is a lot of football still to be played, but as Premier League teams will have completed ten games at the end of this round we already have a pretty good idea which teams will be fighting for places in next season’s Champions League and other European competitions, and which ones will be in the relegation dogfight. And which ones (like ourselves?) will be in midtable.

Today’s game against Everton will be our tenth match, and after a promising start of ten points from four games, the relative slump in fortunes since has seen us slip to ninth before the game, with four wins, two draws, and three defeats. Mid-table perhaps seems more appropriate than our lofty position early on. A win today would take us up to 17 points, which would equate to 65 points over a whole campaign if that was maintained, a figure that would have equated to a sixth-place finish last season.

Have we played a representative sample of teams in terms of difficulty? So far we have faced teams currently sitting in 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th in the table, as well as 17th, 19th and 20th. Everton are 16th, so we will have faced 5 of the top 7, and 4 of the bottom 5. The only mid-table side we have faced so far are underperforming mid-table Chelsea.

I was interested when reading one of the social media groups of West Ham fans whose members, looking at our upcoming games, Everton, Brentford, Forest, Burnley, and Palace, were making predictions as to how many points we would be collecting from those five games. There are many optimists out there who were saying 15, and perhaps 13 while others were taking a more realistic approach, some pessimists even going as low as 3, or even lower in a couple of cases. The ‘optimists’ were then ‘attacking’ the ‘pessimists’ or ‘realists’ accusing them of not being ‘true’ supporters, suggesting they should get behind the team, or go and support someone else. The other group fought back suggesting they were entitled to their opinion and the exchange was a good example of extreme opinions that exist in many social media areas.

The same extreme opinions exist with regard to David Moyes. On the one hand he is lambasted for poor tactics, poor team selection and formation, poor use and timing of substitutes, lack of coaching and so many other things. I did enjoy a comparison between Moyes supporters and those who believe the Earth is flat. Moyes supporters retaliated with the usual stuff – look at the record, 6th and 7th place finishes and a European trophy etc. When did this happen in three consecutive seasons?

If you haven’t yet read Geoff’s article previewing the Everton game then take a look now. Like Geoff I was astonished by some of Moyes comments when he spoke to the media this week. He seems to believe that everything is difficult. The Olympiacos game was always going to be difficult he suggested, this year’s group is the hardest group we’ve been drawn in, every Premier League game is difficult, Everton will be a tough nut to crack, they are a resilient team who keep at it and have players capable of scoring goals.

The season so far suggests that the game shouldn’t be as daunting as our manager believes. Everton have won two and lost six of their nine games, have scored nine goals and conceded 14, are just above the relegation places and you would have to suspect that this will be another long season for them, probably once again facing a relegation battle, and definitely if there is any truth in the potential sanctions and a twelve-point penalty being suggested.

What must Moyes think of all the other, better placed, teams in the league? As Geoff suggests, how must his uninspiring demeanour and positive talking up of the opposition come across in the dressing room?

How will we fare today? Everton always used to be one of our bogey teams, and prior to the last three seasons we’d only beaten them three times in 24 attempts. However, in recent times we’ve done much better winning four of the last six. Our home form against all teams is impressive in that we’ve only lost three of our last 14 league games at the London Stadium (covering this season to date and last) and they were to Manchester City, Liverpool and Newcastle. Those are the positives.

To take the negative viewpoint (as our manager so often seems to) how often do we face teams and players who have a better record against West Ham than against other Premier League clubs? Everton have won more Premier League away games against West Ham than against any other opponents; Dominic Calvert-Lewin hasn’t scored more goals against any other team than he has against West Ham.

Despite our less than impressive recent form I believe that this is a game that we should win and will go for one or two nil. What are the chances?

West Ham’s first Claret and Blue Derby of the season is a visit to Aston Villa for the televised game on Sunday

Someone said to me this week that watching football in the Premier League is like watching ITV. What he was getting at was that the season is barely underway with just eight games gone and there have already been two international breaks. He’d prefer the Premier League to be modelled on the BBC and have no breaks. I could see his point as I don’t like the breaks myself, especially so early in the season, barely giving teams the opportunity to get into a rhythm or build momentum. I don’t really mind the breaks on commercial television though. These days with Smart TVs and a host of features you don’t have to watch anything live. You can arrange to fast forward through advertisements, or even use the gaps to get a drink or have a toilet break if you wish.

Of course if you are a fan of rugby union or 50-over cricket there are World Cups in both in progress at the moment so that takes the edge off missing your weekly dose of Premier League football. Having said that it was no fun to watch England capitulate to Afghanistan in the cricket, although the England rugby team have progressed well, partly as a result of a favourable draw. They’ll be doing well to get past South Africa this weekend though.

But I’m glad to say that Premier league football is back and we are away to Villa in the TV match at 4.30 on Sunday afternoon. That won’t be an easy fixture either. Villa have progressed enormously since we won on their ground early last season with Pablo Fornals’ deflected goal. Having said that, we too have made significant strides in this campaign and after eight games sit just two points and two places below them. They have lost twice (as we have) but they have won five and drawn once compared to our four wins and two draws.

They suffered heavy defeats to both Newcastle and Liverpool and were (surprisingly?) dumped out of the EFL Cup losing at home to Everton. After qualifying for the group stage of the Europa Conference (8-0 on aggregate v Hibernian) they have won one and lost one of the group games.

I was interested to read an article on the BBC Sport website this week assessing how Premier League teams have started the season. Recent years have seen the proliferation of statistics in football, and whilst I am not totally averse to some of them, there is one that really gets to me and that is expected goals (xg).

The article quite rightly pointed out that results are what matter most, but it went on to say that “taking a look at teams expected goals numbers can help us see how much permanent class they’ve shown so far and get an idea of how the rest of their season could pan out”. It went on to say that “comparing teams actual goal difference with their expected one we can see whose foundations for the season are built on stone and whose are built only on sand.” What a load of …..

Their ”form v class – gd v xGD” graphic had Newcastle and Manchester City at the top of the tree. Not for me I’m afraid. The last time I looked at the league table Tottenham and Arsenal led the way, both unbeaten. Manchester City have lost two games and Newcastle three out of just eight and sit below us in the table.

The conclusion concerning West Ham was that “early-season enthusiasm might be a bit premature with the Hammers outperforming their expected goals more than any other side.”

I’ll concede that expected goals may have some value in football analysis but let’s not go over the top. One of the games in the Premier League this season was won by 6-1. It involved our opponents this weekend hammering Brighton. But which team came out on top in expected goals (xG)? That’s right – Brighton.

Expected goals has so many limitations. The sample size, number of games played and strength of opponents when doing analysis after just eight games might not reflect true ability. What about the specific context of a match, such as the scoreline, the time remaining, the importance of the game, all of which can significantly impact the likelihood of scoring?

xG doesn’t account for the skill and performance of goalkeepers which can vary widely. A top keeper may save shots that would be goals against others. xG doesn’t measure the level of defensive pressure faced. A player facing intense defensive pressure may have a lower chance of converting a high xG opportunity.

What about the skill level of the attacker? A highly-skilled striker might convert low xG chances more often than one with lesser skills. xG is based on historical data so it might not account for players who can score in unconventional ways or from unexpected positions.

xG doesn’t differentiate between set-piece situations and open-play chances. Set pieces often have different dynamics and conversion rates. As West Ham fans in recent times we are well aware of this.

Football is inherently unpredictable, and even high xG chances can be missed and low xG chances can be converted. I could go on. Let’s not go overboard about xG. Just as a team with the highest percentage of possession will not necessarily come out on top in a game of football the same is true for the xG statistics.

Similarly past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance in terms of results. The fact that David Moyes is unbeaten in his last 14 games against Aston Villa has no real bearing on what will happen at Villa Park on Sunday afternoon. It is a piece of information that surprised me when I read it though.

We are unbeaten in our last five visits to Villa Park in the Premier League, winning the most recent three by 1-0, 4-1 and 3-1 scorelines. Pablo Fornals got the only goal at Villa Park last season and has a good record of scoring against them. Will that have any importance in the manager’s team selection for this game? Probably not.

With 13 points from their last six games Villa are one of the form teams in the Premier League with only Tottenham and Arsenal at the top of the table with better form records than that. Having said that only the top 5 teams can better our impressive haul of ten points in our last six games.

It will be a difficult game. I really don’t care about xG but I hope we can continue our early season form with at least a point and hopefully three. I am loving the players bought to replace Rice this season. Alvarez, Kudus and especially Ward-Prowse have really settled well and Paqueta has shown why he is a regular starter for Brazil (until recently of course!). We still have a way to go, and are light in some positions, but squad-wise we are as healthy as we have been for a while. What are the chances of three points?

Memories of a massive win in a great season (1985/86) – West Ham 8 Newcastle 1

I began last week’s article with “It has been a decent start to the season hasn’t it?” Since then it has got even better. Our very comfortable 2-0 win over Sheffield United made it 4 wins and 13 points from our first 7 games, and seventh place in the table. We’ve scored 13 goals in those games and conceded 10. Only 3 of the 7 games have been at home, a figure that will be balanced with the visit of Newcastle to the London Stadium.

In the Europa Cup we surpassed the record for any English side by beating Freiburg 2-1 in Germany to make it 17 consecutive European games unbeaten, surpassing the 16 of Leeds from 1968 and Tottenham in 1972 who were tied with us on 16. Even more remarkable is the fact that 16 of the 17 games have been victories, the sole draw coming against Gent (1-1) last season. The Germans finished fifth in the Bundesliga last season and are currently 8th this time. Their record this season after 6 games mirrored our Premier League one with 3 wins and a draw, 10 points. An impressive result with an outstanding performance from Paqueta, and Kudus is looking very good too. In fact most of the team had good games.

Our squad is looking impressive and we now have a range of options in a number (but not all) positions. And how good is James Ward-Prowse? Six assists and two goals so far – what a start to the season. Gareth Southgate, when picking his England squad, prefers 33 year old Henderson (playing in the Middle East in front of less than 1000 spectators), Kalvin Phillips (who can barely get a game for Manchester City) and Conor Gallagher (what are his statistics this season?) as midfielders. Amazing! At least the early season form of Jarrod Bowen hasn’t gone unnoticed.

Those of us of a certain age (my first game at Upton Park was in the late 1950s) will remember some seasons more fondly than others. It has been a roller coaster ride following the Hammers but some seasons have been particularly memorable. Newcastle’s eight goal mauling of Sheffield United recently took me back to 1985-86, one of the great seasons in our history, when we put eight past Newcastle on a Monday night in April when we were pushing towards the first division title which would have been the first in our history.

Ironically that season had started poorly with only one win in our first seven games. With six points we sat in seventeenth place in the league. Nowhere near our start this season. But from this point we went 18 successive league games without defeat before losing 1-0 at Tottenham on Boxing Day. But we then resumed winning ways and by the time we faced Newcastle in April we were still well placed to challenge for the title.

Our 8-1 win is remembered for an Alvin Martin hat-trick scored against three different Newcastle goalkeepers, goals from Goddard, McAvennie, Orr, a Stewart penalty, and a Glenn Roeder own goal. It was a fabulous season with the goalscoring partnership of McAvennie and Cottee (who scored 46 league goals between them), and a defence built upon the solid foundations of Parkes, Gale and Martin. We finished with 84 points in third place, just 4 points adrift of champions Liverpool.

Despite our improved start to this season compared to 38 years ago, we will not be challenging for the title, nor finish as high as third, but the opening has been promising, and I look forward to consolidation of a strong top half finishing position.

Our opponents this weekend had a massive resurgence last season and qualified for the Champions League. A fine draw in Italy was followed by the 4-1 demolition of PSG this week which suggests that this game will not be an easy one. But we must look to fixtures such as these to prove why we should be pressing towards the top eight this season.

How will we get on? Bookmakers have the Geordies as evens favourites, while we are priced at around 12/5, with the draw at 14/5. Thursday / Sunday psychologically seems to be a difficult challenge, especially as the late return from abroad reduces the time to recover for the next game. Newcastle, on the other hand, played at home on Wednesday, so have a distinct advantage in time between fixtures. Nevertheless I expect a close game to be settled by the odd goal. It won’t be a repeat of the 8-1 in 1986, but hopefully we can be the team to edge it. What are the chances?