Author: Richard Bennett

Can West Ham extend the Clarets winless run at Turf Moor in the Claret and Blue derby this weekend?

Once again the international break has come along to spoil the flow of the Premier League season. There have only been twelve games played and we have already had three of them! It’s an absolute nonsense in my opinion and even more so for anyone who chose to watch England’s final two qualifying games for next year’s European Championships. Fortunately I was too busy watching some paint drying and therefore missed the spectacle of a 2-0 home win against mighty Malta and a point gained in a 1-1 draw in North Macedonia. Did I miss anything? Those I’ve spoken to who did view the games suggested not.

I’m not too sure of the injury situation for this week’s visit to Turf Moor but at one stage it was looking decidedly bad. Antonio had to be substituted after 20 minutes in Jamaica’s game, Bowen had to withdraw from the England squad and Kudus had a problem too. Hopefully it is not as bleak as was initially reported but it does make you think back to the summer transfer window, and the astonishing decision to not strengthen the squad in an attacking sense. It was inexplicable, perhaps inexcusable to sell Scamacca and not replace him before the current campaign got underway. And looking ahead to the beginning of next year and the African tournament, we could potentially lose Kudus, Benrahma and Cornet for a time. In the coming winter transfer window we have got to add to our attacking potential and hopefully with footballers who fit into the system. Perhaps Mr Steidten has a few aces up his sleeve. I certainly hope so.

In any event the comeback win against Forest in the final fixture before the break after a lacklustre first half performance means that with just under a third of the season completed we have crept back into the top half of the table in ninth position. And we sit just three points below Newcastle in seventh, the last of the qualifying places that can be achieved via league position.

There are plenty of worrying statistics to consider in advance of our trip to Burnley. Somehow we often manage to help sides to end poor runs of one kind or another. Perhaps the standout one is the fact that Burnley have played six home games this season and lost all of them. We are on a record breaking run ourselves from a West Ham point of view; our last seven games against promoted sides have been wins – we’ve never done that before. Two records that could end if it goes wrong this weekend.

I see that James Ward Prowse is the leading player in the Premier League for assists this season so far with nine. And despite his consistency over a long period and his standout form he can’t find a place in Gareth Southgate’s England squad, even one that was depleted with injuries. How Kalvin Phillips gets in despite barely playing for his club, and Jordan Henderson too now he has gone abroad for the money in a poor league is beyond me.

I see that Everton have fallen foul of Financial Fair Play regulations and been docked a record 10 points for doing so. I’m not sure too many of us fully understand the regulations, and I guess the Everton bosses didn’t either to allow themselves to get into this position. Or perhaps they did and thought they’d get away with it. They become only the third Premier League side to be deducted points after Middlesbrough; 3 points for failing to turn up for a game in 1996-97. They were ultimately relegated just two points from safety. Portsmouth went into administration in 2009-10, were deducted nine points and were relegated after finishing bottom a long way from safety. The omens aren’t great for Everton although the ten-point deduction leaves them only two points from safety at this early stage, mainly due to the poor results obtained by the promoted sides, Luton, Sheffield United and Burnley.

Many believe that we were lucky in 2006-07 to escape a points deduction when we were fined £5.5 million in respect of the signing of Tevez and Mascherano, breaking the rule regarding third party ownership. We subsequently agreed to pay Sheffield United a compensation settlement in the range of around £20 million intended to address their financial losses after they were relegated. Had we been docked just three points we would have gone down on goal difference. There is a kind of irony in the Everton points deduction in that the three man independent commission which punished them included Nick Igoe who was in charge of West Ham’s finances at the time of the Tevez / Mascherano affair.

We’ve got a busy time in the lead up to Christmas which is now just a month away. In that time we’ve got half a dozen league games against Burnley, Palace, Tottenham, Fulham, Wolves and Manchester United, as well as the final two Europa League group games and an EFL quarter-final tie at Liverpool. The league games will be very important to ensure that we stay in the race for European places next season. A poor run now could rule us out of contention leaving us to settle for mid table. It would be great to get the four points needed to top the group in Europe to progress into the knock-out stages in the second half of the season too. And wouldn’t it be brilliant if we can upset the odds at Anfield and move into the semi-finals of the EFL Cup.

Have we got the depth of squad to achieve these goals? Will we splash out in the window to help us to kick on in all fronts? How will we be affected by the loss of players to the African Nations Cup? Will we still be in the mix in the race for European qualification, and still in the cup competitions when we enter 2024? Will we go all out in the FA Cup when the third round gets underway in January? If we do have serious striker problems on Saturday will Mubama get more than five minutes playing time or will the manager stick with Ings? Can the manager adopt a more adventurous approach, or will his normal caution remain? Will the second half of the season peter out with little to play for?

An important month lies ahead beginning with Burnley. Can we inflict on them their seventh consecutive home defeat of the season? Will we extend our record against promoted sides to make it eight consecutive wins? Will we have any fit strikers? COYI!

Ward Prowse’s Perfect Precision Pass, Paqueta Pounces, Olympiacos Overcome.

West Ham march on in Europe, but can they get back to winning ways in the league when Forest visit the London Stadium on Sunday?

VAR hasn’t received the best press in recent times. But West Ham were thankful for its intervention on Thursday evening. If we were relying on the naked eye of the assistant referee then the result of the game against the Greeks from Piraeus would most likely have been a goalless draw. West Ham were celebrating when Paqueta pounced to volley home Ward Prowse’s wonderful precision pass over the top. A beautifully crafted pass and finish was about to be chalked off when the flag was raised to indicate offside. But thanks to the VAR check Ortega was seen to be closer to his own goal than our brilliant Brazilian and the goal quite rightly stood. And how the players celebrated in front of the visiting Greek supporters, milking their revenge win. West Ham were not happy with how their opponents celebrated their win two weeks ago, and vengeance for that was high on the player’s minds prior to the game.

Thankfully Manager Moyes had made changes from the weakened team he put out that lost the reverse fixture a fortnight ago. The win leaves us at the top of the group on the basis of head-to-head against Freiburg who also had a comfortable win over Backa Topola on the night. A win against the Serbians at the end of November would mean a draw against the Germans in the final group game in mid-December would be enough to clinch top spot in the group. And top spot is important in this competition with the runners up facing a game against a third placed side dropping down from the Champions League.

Division of opinion about the merits of the manager continues in the build up to the kick-off against Forest on Sunday. Recent poor domestic form with three consecutive defeats has seen us slip into the bottom half of the table where we are now twelfth with 14 points from our eleven games, just one point and one place above our visitors who have won one and drawn three of their last five games.

A worrying statistic is that Forest have won only one away game against West Ham in almost 40 years. How we manage to end those poor runs of our opponents is a trait we seem to specialise in. In fairness however the sample size is not as big as it might be against many other teams as we haven’t always been in the same division. Another one to watch out for coming up soon – Burnley have now lost six consecutive home games – you know who their next home game is against after the International break, don’t you?

Forest’s three wins this season have been against Sheffield United, Chelsea, and last week against in-form Aston Villa. They have only lost four games (compared to our five) although all four have been on their travels. We don’t have a good record in games that follow Europa League fixtures on Thursday nights and have yet to win one on a following Sunday in this campaign.

Thanks to the BBC I was made aware that the manager who holds the record for the most defeats in Premier League matches is Harry Redknapp with 238. I’ll leave you to guess who follows close behind on 237. Another unwanted record on its way shortly I reckon.

If we are serious about becoming a top-half team then this is a game that we surely need to win. I did suggest something similar prior to the recent Everton game too. Look what happened there.

It’s a frustrating watch at the moment with all the attacking talent we have at our disposal. As Geoff pointed out recently, recent league results have been abysmal. Just four points from the last seven games, a rate of return that if continued to the end of the season would result in a total of 30 points, and a likely relegation struggle.

Here is a paragraph from my article prior to the recent Everton game:

I was interested when reading one of the social media groups of West Ham fans whose members, looking at our upcoming games, Everton, Brentford, Forest, Burnley, and Palace, were making predictions as to how many points we would be collecting from those five ‘easy’ (on paper) games. There are many optimists out there who were saying 15, and perhaps 13 while others were taking a more realistic approach, some pessimists even going as low as 3, or even lower in a couple of cases. The ‘optimists’ were then ‘attacking’ the ‘pessimists’ or ‘realists’ accusing them of not being ‘true’ supporters, suggesting they should get behind the team, or go and support someone else. The other group fought back suggesting they were entitled to their opinion and the exchange was a good example of extreme opinions that exist in many social media areas.

Two games down and no points yet I wonder how many points we will end up collecting now from that run of supposedly ‘easy’ games?

Bookmakers have us as one of eight teams who are odds on to collect three points in their games this weekend, the others being Arsenal, Manchester United, Newcastle, Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, and Manchester City. The other 7 are in the current top eight of the Premier League. Only Tottenham of the top 8 are not priced at odds on to win their game. Do you have the same belief as the bookmakers that odds on is a true reflection of our chances to win this game? So many of our games this season have ended 3-1, both wins and defeats. Perhaps a 3-1 win on Sunday is my prediction with no great conviction or supporting evidence. What are the chances?

West Ham are like a box of chocolates, you never know what you are gonna get

This isn’t the first time I’ve used a slight distortion of a famous quote from Forrest Gump ‘My mama always said life was like a box of chocolates’. The same is true if you follow West Ham. You never know what you are going to get from one season to the next, from one game to the next, and even from the first half of a game to the second half.

We came into the EFL Cup game on Wednesday night on the back of a three match losing run, and were tamely beaten by lowly Everton last Sunday. What a contrast when we faced high-flying Arsenal, albeit with some of their star players such as Saka, Odegaard, Martinelli, and of course the returning Rice warming the bench.

It was not the return to the London Stadium that our last captain would have imagined for his first time back. The Arsenal manager Arteta paid the price of believing that some of his fringe players would be too good for West Ham. Perhaps he’d been lulled into a false sense of security by watching our woeful performance against the Toffeemen just three days beforehand. He, and the 62,000 in the stadium and those watching at home, didn’t expect a Hammers performance that would be a night to remember. We’ve had lost of memorable games in the League Cup in the past, perhaps the 7-0 demolition of a strong Leeds side in 1966 being the pick, but this was most enjoyable too.

Personally I was saddened a little by the booing of our former captain, but everyone is entitled to express their opinion, even if there may have been an element of sheep mentality. The £105 million that we received from Arsenal has enabled us to add some excellent players to the ranks in Kudus, Alvarez and Ward Prowse. In addition to Paqueta and Bowen we have a group of footballers who excite me. I love to watch them, and all apart from the former Southampton captain, who was given a rest until the final 10 minutes of the game, turned it on against the Gunners. It was a far cry form the boring spectacle we had witnessed against Everton.

Kudus was my man of the match, closely followed by Paqueta, Alvarez and Bowen, all worthy of at least 8 out of 10 on the night. In fact I thought that the whole team had good games. In some ways I was surprised by the selection of Paqueta and Alvarez given that they are suspended for the game at Brentford.

We were perhaps fortunate that there was no VAR to intervene when White headed the ball into his own net after quarter of an hour, as Soucek could be clearly seen pulling Ramsdale’s shirt. But I guess so much of that goes on in penalty areas week in and week out.

The move and goal of the night involved an exquisite diagonal long range crossfield pass from Aguerd to Kudus, followed by excellent control before firing the ball into the bottom corner. Bowen added a third and even West Ham fans could then begin to relax a little (but not entirely given our history – remember the game against Arsenal a couple of seasons ago?). Odegaard pulled one back in the 96th minute but by then it didn’t matter.

With just a couple of days rest the attention turns to a visit to the Brentford Community Stadium on Saturday. Brentford are now in their third season in the Premier League, with an excellent manager in Thomas Frank leading them to 13th and 9th placed finishes in their first two campaigns. In a way they are a bit like Brighton in that they seem to be a bogey team in recent times. We finally beat Brighton this season at the eleventh attempt in the league and hopefully it won’t take us that long to secure a victory over Brentford.

We did win there in the FA Cup last season, but the four Premier League matches between the two sides have resulted in four Brentford wins. In each of the four games they scored two goals, whereas we have only managed to score once (in the four games combined) when Jarrod Bowen scored in the 2-1 defeat, the first time we played them in the Premier League in October 2021.

In two of those victories the Brentford goals were scored by Mbuemo and Wissa, two mainstays of my Fantasy Football team this season, who continue to be a threat. In fact Mbuemo has scored three goals against us in those four games so he enjoys playing against West Ham it would seem. Let’s hope he doesn’t do a Calvert-Lewin this weekend.

Both ourselves and Brentford have made similar starts to the season; we are ninth on 14 points whereas Brentford are tenth on 13. Both teams have scored 16 goals in the ten games played, but Brentford have only conceded 12 compared to our 17.

If the pattern of recent meetings is followed then Brentford will score twice and win the game. But a lot will depend on what West Ham team turns up. If we perform like we did against Everton then a defeat will be the most likely outcome. If we can replicate the Arsenal performance then the outcome might be different. West Ham are definitely like a box of chocolates; you never know what you are going to get. That is so often the case from one game to the next. But despite the absence of Alvarez and Paqueta perhaps we can put an end to our dismal run against Brentford on Saturday?.

We’ve been involved in six matches this season that have ended 3-1. Three were wins and three were defeats. Will the Brentford hoodoo continue or (as in the case of Brighton) will it come to an end? Will the final score be 3-1? But to who?

Matchday 10 will mean a quarter of the season completed, and sees the visit of lowly Everton to face West Ham at the London Stadium

Someone once said that you shouldn’t bother looking at the league table until at least ten games have been played. At that time teams would have faced roughly half of the other teams in the league, hopefully a representative sample in terms of difficulty, and you should by then have a good idea as to how the season is progressing, and how it may end.

Of course, even at that stage there is a lot of football still to be played, but as Premier League teams will have completed ten games at the end of this round we already have a pretty good idea which teams will be fighting for places in next season’s Champions League and other European competitions, and which ones will be in the relegation dogfight. And which ones (like ourselves?) will be in midtable.

Today’s game against Everton will be our tenth match, and after a promising start of ten points from four games, the relative slump in fortunes since has seen us slip to ninth before the game, with four wins, two draws, and three defeats. Mid-table perhaps seems more appropriate than our lofty position early on. A win today would take us up to 17 points, which would equate to 65 points over a whole campaign if that was maintained, a figure that would have equated to a sixth-place finish last season.

Have we played a representative sample of teams in terms of difficulty? So far we have faced teams currently sitting in 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th in the table, as well as 17th, 19th and 20th. Everton are 16th, so we will have faced 5 of the top 7, and 4 of the bottom 5. The only mid-table side we have faced so far are underperforming mid-table Chelsea.

I was interested when reading one of the social media groups of West Ham fans whose members, looking at our upcoming games, Everton, Brentford, Forest, Burnley, and Palace, were making predictions as to how many points we would be collecting from those five games. There are many optimists out there who were saying 15, and perhaps 13 while others were taking a more realistic approach, some pessimists even going as low as 3, or even lower in a couple of cases. The ‘optimists’ were then ‘attacking’ the ‘pessimists’ or ‘realists’ accusing them of not being ‘true’ supporters, suggesting they should get behind the team, or go and support someone else. The other group fought back suggesting they were entitled to their opinion and the exchange was a good example of extreme opinions that exist in many social media areas.

The same extreme opinions exist with regard to David Moyes. On the one hand he is lambasted for poor tactics, poor team selection and formation, poor use and timing of substitutes, lack of coaching and so many other things. I did enjoy a comparison between Moyes supporters and those who believe the Earth is flat. Moyes supporters retaliated with the usual stuff – look at the record, 6th and 7th place finishes and a European trophy etc. When did this happen in three consecutive seasons?

If you haven’t yet read Geoff’s article previewing the Everton game then take a look now. Like Geoff I was astonished by some of Moyes comments when he spoke to the media this week. He seems to believe that everything is difficult. The Olympiacos game was always going to be difficult he suggested, this year’s group is the hardest group we’ve been drawn in, every Premier League game is difficult, Everton will be a tough nut to crack, they are a resilient team who keep at it and have players capable of scoring goals.

The season so far suggests that the game shouldn’t be as daunting as our manager believes. Everton have won two and lost six of their nine games, have scored nine goals and conceded 14, are just above the relegation places and you would have to suspect that this will be another long season for them, probably once again facing a relegation battle, and definitely if there is any truth in the potential sanctions and a twelve-point penalty being suggested.

What must Moyes think of all the other, better placed, teams in the league? As Geoff suggests, how must his uninspiring demeanour and positive talking up of the opposition come across in the dressing room?

How will we fare today? Everton always used to be one of our bogey teams, and prior to the last three seasons we’d only beaten them three times in 24 attempts. However, in recent times we’ve done much better winning four of the last six. Our home form against all teams is impressive in that we’ve only lost three of our last 14 league games at the London Stadium (covering this season to date and last) and they were to Manchester City, Liverpool and Newcastle. Those are the positives.

To take the negative viewpoint (as our manager so often seems to) how often do we face teams and players who have a better record against West Ham than against other Premier League clubs? Everton have won more Premier League away games against West Ham than against any other opponents; Dominic Calvert-Lewin hasn’t scored more goals against any other team than he has against West Ham.

Despite our less than impressive recent form I believe that this is a game that we should win and will go for one or two nil. What are the chances?

West Ham’s first Claret and Blue Derby of the season is a visit to Aston Villa for the televised game on Sunday

Someone said to me this week that watching football in the Premier League is like watching ITV. What he was getting at was that the season is barely underway with just eight games gone and there have already been two international breaks. He’d prefer the Premier League to be modelled on the BBC and have no breaks. I could see his point as I don’t like the breaks myself, especially so early in the season, barely giving teams the opportunity to get into a rhythm or build momentum. I don’t really mind the breaks on commercial television though. These days with Smart TVs and a host of features you don’t have to watch anything live. You can arrange to fast forward through advertisements, or even use the gaps to get a drink or have a toilet break if you wish.

Of course if you are a fan of rugby union or 50-over cricket there are World Cups in both in progress at the moment so that takes the edge off missing your weekly dose of Premier League football. Having said that it was no fun to watch England capitulate to Afghanistan in the cricket, although the England rugby team have progressed well, partly as a result of a favourable draw. They’ll be doing well to get past South Africa this weekend though.

But I’m glad to say that Premier league football is back and we are away to Villa in the TV match at 4.30 on Sunday afternoon. That won’t be an easy fixture either. Villa have progressed enormously since we won on their ground early last season with Pablo Fornals’ deflected goal. Having said that, we too have made significant strides in this campaign and after eight games sit just two points and two places below them. They have lost twice (as we have) but they have won five and drawn once compared to our four wins and two draws.

They suffered heavy defeats to both Newcastle and Liverpool and were (surprisingly?) dumped out of the EFL Cup losing at home to Everton. After qualifying for the group stage of the Europa Conference (8-0 on aggregate v Hibernian) they have won one and lost one of the group games.

I was interested to read an article on the BBC Sport website this week assessing how Premier League teams have started the season. Recent years have seen the proliferation of statistics in football, and whilst I am not totally averse to some of them, there is one that really gets to me and that is expected goals (xg).

The article quite rightly pointed out that results are what matter most, but it went on to say that “taking a look at teams expected goals numbers can help us see how much permanent class they’ve shown so far and get an idea of how the rest of their season could pan out”. It went on to say that “comparing teams actual goal difference with their expected one we can see whose foundations for the season are built on stone and whose are built only on sand.” What a load of …..

Their ”form v class – gd v xGD” graphic had Newcastle and Manchester City at the top of the tree. Not for me I’m afraid. The last time I looked at the league table Tottenham and Arsenal led the way, both unbeaten. Manchester City have lost two games and Newcastle three out of just eight and sit below us in the table.

The conclusion concerning West Ham was that “early-season enthusiasm might be a bit premature with the Hammers outperforming their expected goals more than any other side.”

I’ll concede that expected goals may have some value in football analysis but let’s not go over the top. One of the games in the Premier League this season was won by 6-1. It involved our opponents this weekend hammering Brighton. But which team came out on top in expected goals (xG)? That’s right – Brighton.

Expected goals has so many limitations. The sample size, number of games played and strength of opponents when doing analysis after just eight games might not reflect true ability. What about the specific context of a match, such as the scoreline, the time remaining, the importance of the game, all of which can significantly impact the likelihood of scoring?

xG doesn’t account for the skill and performance of goalkeepers which can vary widely. A top keeper may save shots that would be goals against others. xG doesn’t measure the level of defensive pressure faced. A player facing intense defensive pressure may have a lower chance of converting a high xG opportunity.

What about the skill level of the attacker? A highly-skilled striker might convert low xG chances more often than one with lesser skills. xG is based on historical data so it might not account for players who can score in unconventional ways or from unexpected positions.

xG doesn’t differentiate between set-piece situations and open-play chances. Set pieces often have different dynamics and conversion rates. As West Ham fans in recent times we are well aware of this.

Football is inherently unpredictable, and even high xG chances can be missed and low xG chances can be converted. I could go on. Let’s not go overboard about xG. Just as a team with the highest percentage of possession will not necessarily come out on top in a game of football the same is true for the xG statistics.

Similarly past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance in terms of results. The fact that David Moyes is unbeaten in his last 14 games against Aston Villa has no real bearing on what will happen at Villa Park on Sunday afternoon. It is a piece of information that surprised me when I read it though.

We are unbeaten in our last five visits to Villa Park in the Premier League, winning the most recent three by 1-0, 4-1 and 3-1 scorelines. Pablo Fornals got the only goal at Villa Park last season and has a good record of scoring against them. Will that have any importance in the manager’s team selection for this game? Probably not.

With 13 points from their last six games Villa are one of the form teams in the Premier League with only Tottenham and Arsenal at the top of the table with better form records than that. Having said that only the top 5 teams can better our impressive haul of ten points in our last six games.

It will be a difficult game. I really don’t care about xG but I hope we can continue our early season form with at least a point and hopefully three. I am loving the players bought to replace Rice this season. Alvarez, Kudus and especially Ward-Prowse have really settled well and Paqueta has shown why he is a regular starter for Brazil (until recently of course!). We still have a way to go, and are light in some positions, but squad-wise we are as healthy as we have been for a while. What are the chances of three points?

Memories of a massive win in a great season (1985/86) – West Ham 8 Newcastle 1

I began last week’s article with “It has been a decent start to the season hasn’t it?” Since then it has got even better. Our very comfortable 2-0 win over Sheffield United made it 4 wins and 13 points from our first 7 games, and seventh place in the table. We’ve scored 13 goals in those games and conceded 10. Only 3 of the 7 games have been at home, a figure that will be balanced with the visit of Newcastle to the London Stadium.

In the Europa Cup we surpassed the record for any English side by beating Freiburg 2-1 in Germany to make it 17 consecutive European games unbeaten, surpassing the 16 of Leeds from 1968 and Tottenham in 1972 who were tied with us on 16. Even more remarkable is the fact that 16 of the 17 games have been victories, the sole draw coming against Gent (1-1) last season. The Germans finished fifth in the Bundesliga last season and are currently 8th this time. Their record this season after 6 games mirrored our Premier League one with 3 wins and a draw, 10 points. An impressive result with an outstanding performance from Paqueta, and Kudus is looking very good too. In fact most of the team had good games.

Our squad is looking impressive and we now have a range of options in a number (but not all) positions. And how good is James Ward-Prowse? Six assists and two goals so far – what a start to the season. Gareth Southgate, when picking his England squad, prefers 33 year old Henderson (playing in the Middle East in front of less than 1000 spectators), Kalvin Phillips (who can barely get a game for Manchester City) and Conor Gallagher (what are his statistics this season?) as midfielders. Amazing! At least the early season form of Jarrod Bowen hasn’t gone unnoticed.

Those of us of a certain age (my first game at Upton Park was in the late 1950s) will remember some seasons more fondly than others. It has been a roller coaster ride following the Hammers but some seasons have been particularly memorable. Newcastle’s eight goal mauling of Sheffield United recently took me back to 1985-86, one of the great seasons in our history, when we put eight past Newcastle on a Monday night in April when we were pushing towards the first division title which would have been the first in our history.

Ironically that season had started poorly with only one win in our first seven games. With six points we sat in seventeenth place in the league. Nowhere near our start this season. But from this point we went 18 successive league games without defeat before losing 1-0 at Tottenham on Boxing Day. But we then resumed winning ways and by the time we faced Newcastle in April we were still well placed to challenge for the title.

Our 8-1 win is remembered for an Alvin Martin hat-trick scored against three different Newcastle goalkeepers, goals from Goddard, McAvennie, Orr, a Stewart penalty, and a Glenn Roeder own goal. It was a fabulous season with the goalscoring partnership of McAvennie and Cottee (who scored 46 league goals between them), and a defence built upon the solid foundations of Parkes, Gale and Martin. We finished with 84 points in third place, just 4 points adrift of champions Liverpool.

Despite our improved start to this season compared to 38 years ago, we will not be challenging for the title, nor finish as high as third, but the opening has been promising, and I look forward to consolidation of a strong top half finishing position.

Our opponents this weekend had a massive resurgence last season and qualified for the Champions League. A fine draw in Italy was followed by the 4-1 demolition of PSG this week which suggests that this game will not be an easy one. But we must look to fixtures such as these to prove why we should be pressing towards the top eight this season.

How will we get on? Bookmakers have the Geordies as evens favourites, while we are priced at around 12/5, with the draw at 14/5. Thursday / Sunday psychologically seems to be a difficult challenge, especially as the late return from abroad reduces the time to recover for the next game. Newcastle, on the other hand, played at home on Wednesday, so have a distinct advantage in time between fixtures. Nevertheless I expect a close game to be settled by the odd goal. It won’t be a repeat of the 8-1 in 1986, but hopefully we can be the team to edge it. What are the chances?

Will the Blades be sharper when they visit the London Stadium this weekend or will West Ham return to winning ways?

It has been a decent start to the season hasn’t it? Who would have predicted that after the first six games we would be sitting in seventh place in the Premier League table having won three, drawn one and lost two, securing ten points. We’ve scored 11 goals in those games and conceded 10. The fixtures computer didn’t do us any favours in that just two of the six games have been at home with four away. That will be rectified with two home games in the next week.

In those six games we’ve faced the champions Manchester City, Liverpool, Brighton, Chelsea, Bournemouth and Luton. Hand on heart did you think we would have 10 points at this stage? We also won our first group game in the Europa League (comfortably in the end). General consensus is that the transfer window was a good one too, with the loss of Rice, balanced by the acquisition of Alvarez, Ward-Prowse, Kudus and Mavropanos. We could have done with another goalscorer though.

The manager is still under fire in some quarters despite our relatively impressive start. So why is this? If you delve deeper into the statistics of the six league games played a potentially worrying trend emerges in respect of the goals we are conceding. Our first half defensive performances reveal that we have conceded just twice in the opening 45 minutes. On the other hand our opponents have found the net eight times in the second period.

In many ways last week’s performance at Liverpool seemed to me to be very similar to the Manchester City game the week before. In both games we matched our illustrious opponents in the first half playing a more aggressive game before retreating deeper and deeper in typical Moyes fashion as the game progressed.

Our game plan seemed to invite more pressure in the second half. Do we do this on purpose (on manager’s orders) or do we run out of steam? The Bournemouth, Brighton and Luton games had some similarities with the concession of late goals too.

I read that the Liverpool defeat took David Moyes tally up to 72 games without a win in away games against Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United combined. Are there any other managers out there who have failed to beat those four teams in as many games as that on their travels? OK they are or have been top teams in recent times, but really you would have expected a win or two wouldn’t you? Nevertheless the season has begun relatively well and if we kick on in similar fashion then we will be looking towards the top half of the table.

After Sheffield United’s capitulation at home to Newcastle last week many of our fans writing on social media are expecting a straightforward win for us when the Blades come to town. Football often doesn’t work like that and I expect them to be more resilient at the London Stadium. They had done well in their previous game at Tottenham holding a 1-0 lead until the referee added 16 minutes to the second half. However I will be disappointed if we don’t take our points tally up to 13 this weekend.

Have you noticed that, including the Europa League game, five of our seven games this season have finished with a 3-1 scoreline (three in our favour and two against)? I’ll forecast that it will become six out of eight when we cut through the Blades defence to win the game 3-1. What are the chances?

How can West Ham beat Manchester City this weekend?

While Manchester City has been a dominant and formidable team in recent years, no team is invincible and they can be beaten or stopped from winning. Upsets happen in football. If we have a well-thought-out game plan and execute it effectively then of course we have a chance. That is not to deny that it will be difficult against the best club side in England, Europe and probably the World. But they are not immune to defeats and do not win all the time. In their 19 Premier League games on the road on their way to yet another title last season they won 11, drew 4 and lost 4. That means that they didn’t win in 42 per cent of their away games.

Like any football team Manchester City can be beaten through a combination of strategies and factors, which do include luck. I think we can all guess David Moyes’ tactical approach to the game? It has been successful to date in this campaign but have we done our homework? We know their playing style but have we identified any weaknesses in their formation or strategy? Can we adjust our tactics to exploit these weaknesses? Make no mistake, as good as they are they do have weaknesses.

Four teams did beat City last season, Liverpool, Manchester United, Tottenham, and Brentford (twice – home and away!). I’d like to think that we have the resources to study all our opponents in detail but especially those games to try to understand how they were beaten and formulate our plans to achieve this ourselves. Also, there were five drawn games. How did Newcastle, Villa, Everton, Forest and Brighton avoid defeat in games against the champions? They do have areas of vulnerability. Can we capitalise on them? Can we exploit gaps in their defence, pressurise their midfield, disrupt their game plan and create opportunities to score ourselves?

A highly organised defence and disciplined marking are hallmarks of Moyes’ tactics. Narrow defending and numbers behind the ball are key elements that he believes in, with defenders who are able to deal with crosses all day, and hopefully limit shots to long range. Effective pressing can disrupt City’s attacking flow and limit their goal-scoring opportunities, but how deep will we try to defend? Despite our excellent start to the season we haven’t yet kept a clean sheet, conceding one goal in each of our four games. Late goals conceded (in the Bournemouth, Brighton and Luton games highlight the difficulty of maintaining defensive concentration for the full 90 (or 100) minutes. Areola has demonstrated why he is now Moyes’ number one choice and has already made numerous crucial saves. This game should be a real test.

Manchester City always dominate possession whereas our plan generally involves being happy to concede the ball. They attack in numbers and as a result could be susceptible to quick counter attacks. The key to this is the speed of the counter attacking which has been a key feature of our early games. Teams with fast, skillful players have exploited the spaces left behind by City’s attacking players and caught them off guard. Do we have the players who can emulate this? Antonio is a key component of our counter attacking strategy, but the pace of Benrahma and Bowen and the support from Ward Prowse are important too.

Set pieces such as free kicks and corners were a feature of our success a couple of seasons back, but much less so last time. Capitalising on these opportunities and utilising effective set-piece strategies can lead to goals and put Manchester City under pressure. In James Ward-Prowse we have now acquired a master of the set-piece delivery which has already proved fruitful. Also, in the past four games I have been itching to see us get a free kick around 20-25 yards from goal where he is second only to Beckham in his ability to score but alas it hasn’t happened. Perhaps in this game?

I’ve often wondered in the past if we have been fully mentally prepared in advance of games against the top sides. Moyes’ record as a manager in such games is not the best. Approaching the game with a positive mindset, belief in our abilities, and tactical discipline can and will make a difference. Confidence and focus are essential when facing a formidable opponent like City. The confidence in the team appears to be sky-high, perhaps as a result of winning a European trophy last season, and perhaps as a result of the key new signings to replace the loss of Rice. We haven’t yet seen the surprise element of potentially the most exciting signing of them all, Kudus. I have read articles suggesting that he can bring something extra to the team in the same way as Payet did a few years ago. If he can then that will be great, but we will see. Whether or not he will be unleashed from the beginning against City we don’t know yet.

Football is an unpredictable game. If you’ve supported West Ham for any length of time you’ll know that we can be unpredictable from one season to the next, from one game to the next, and even from the first half to the second half of a game. But upsets can happen. Our wins against Chelsea and Brighton were good examples of that. According to the bookmakers’ odds it would be an even bigger upset if we were to win this game. We are upwards of 6/1 to win whilst City are around 2/1 on, with the draw (which wouldn’t be the worst result for us) at 7/2.

While Manchester City are a strong team, perhaps the best around at the moment, and the toughest opponent we are likely to face this season, they are not unbeatable. Can we defy the odds? COYI!

With the transfer window about to slam shut West Ham can go back on top of the Premier League with a win at Luton on Friday night

Prior to the game at Brightonlast week I asked the question if there was another shock result on the cards to follow the unexpected win against Chelsea the week before. It was written more in hope than expectation but I did have a gut feeling that it might be 13th time lucky against the Seagulls and so it turned out. It was a classic smash and grab reminiscent of a couple of seasons ago coupled with a resolute defence and some excellent goalkeeping added to superbly taken goals that propelled us to the top of the league, albeit for 24 hours. We might have still been there now but for Manchester City’s 89th minute winner against Sheffield United. But in our third away game of the season on Friday evening at newly-promoted Luton (out of just 4 games – how does the fixtures computer come up with that?) we have the opportunity to once again claim the top spot, albeit probably for just a day again. But never mind, I’ll take that.

The debate rumbles on with regard to the style of play and lack of possession contrasting with the apparent effectiveness of Moyes’ tactics dividing supporters despite our early season success. But it’s hard not to enjoy the goals we scored last weekend with Ward-Prowse scoring his first to add to his assists against Chelsea, Bowen’s sublime running and finish to the brilliant assist from Benrahma (what a super game he had too when he came on), and Antonio’s attempt to replicate the excellent goal he scored against Chelsea. And we could, perhaps should have added more with further clear-cut chances. Brighton, on the other hand were restricted, and when they did get some good shots on goal they were denied by the impressive goalkeeping of Areola, demonstrating why he should be first choice. By the end of the game I had a contented smile on my face. Just 22% possession goes to prove that it is an over-rated statistic. The Chelsea game was similar. We won’t get away with it all the time. 

It would be easy to believe that we just need to turn up at Kenilworth Road to claim three more points. But seasoned West Ham fans will recognise the potential banana skin facing us against a side deemed to be (on paper) more lowly opponents. A defeat in these circumstances has happened before. Luton will be fired up for their first Premier League game at their home ground. It is amazing to remember that just ten seasons ago they were playing non-league football and their rise to the top flight has been just as remarkable as that of last week’s opponents, Brighton. They are one of four teams who have not yet picked up a single point, although they have only played twice, losing 4-1 at Brighton and 3-0 at Chelsea, co-incidentally the two teams we have successfully beaten.

The transfer window ‘slams shut’ on the day of the game, and after a slow start where we were the last Premier League team to complete a signing, many now consider that it has been a successful window in the end. When the window opened we knew that we would be losing our star player and the task of replacing him with a player of similar calibre looked to be an impossible task. But what have we done? We’ve replaced him with three ‘midfielders’ who provide very different aspects of the role.

Alvarez is the one perhaps closest to Rice’s conventional role of sitting in front of the back line and breaking up play. Ward-Prowse (a favourite of mine) has a tremendous engine, lots of skill, and will be the box-to-box midfielder that we always wanted Rice to develop into, except that he was often tied to more defensive duties. He will also surely be more of a goal threat too. I look forward to free kicks awarded to us in range of goal. Kudus arrives with a massive reputation and will hopefully fill what is called the number 10 role in modern football. The categorisation of roles in recent times is interesting, but I guess Alvarez is the 6, Ward-Prowse the 8, and Kudus the 10. Without knowing the exact details the £105 million that we received for Rice has been spent almost exactly on those three. And on the face of it is money that appears to have been spent wisely. Time will tell of course. We have to remember that both Lanzini and Downes have departed the midfield area too, although neither were first choices to start regularly last season. The three in to replace the three out has hopefully given us a stronger squad in that area of the pitch. And the potential addition of Lingard would improve it still further if he can replicate the impact he had when he was last here.

Additionally, Mavropanos has been signed as a central defender and perhaps we need further full back cover as there may be squad departures in those positions? The big need now seems to be a replacement for the departed Scamacca and a number of players are being touted to arrive. Will Steidten come flying in on a private jet sitting alongside a Brazilian international forward or perhaps Ekitike will arrive from Paris or En-Nesri from Seville, or even Moyes favourite, Broja of Chelsea? The complications of ownership would seem to be an area we wouldn’t want to get into (remember the Tevez affair?) so surely the Alberto deal would be a no-go. We must have learned from the past? We do however need another top class goalscorer to add to Antonio, Ings and Mubama. Talks to acquire Maguire seem to have surfaced again, as has an interest in promising young Peterborough defender Edwards. A full back or two wouldn’t go amiss either So many possibilities as the closing of the window gets nearer.

The acquisitions in the transfer window added to the excellent results to start the season seem to have deflected the moans and groans visible on social media before the season began. At least for the time being. It took us eight games last season to reach seven points, whereas this time we have reached that total in three. Let’s hope that we are not complacent on Friday night and once again look down on all the other Premier League teams from the top of the table at the end of the game. COYI!

West Ham visit league leaders Brighton in the Saturday evening kick off. Is there another shock result on the cards?

It was a sunny Saturday afternoon in mid-April 2012 when I took my seat in the Bobby Moore Upper (previously the South Bank in old money) looking forward to the game against Brighton, who we had beaten earlier in the season as we pushed for automatic promotion under Sam Allardyce. There were just four games to go as we chased Reading and Southampton who occupied the top two slots. We had been at the top of the Championship throughout much of January and February, but a run of seven draws in nine games had seen us slip down to third.  

The game was a classic right from when Ricardo Vaz Te opened the scoring in the third minute with an explosive shot from outside the area. Vaz Te was in prime form at the time having scored in each of the four games prior to this one, and he scored with a header a few minutes later. Kevin Nolan tapped in an easy third before Vaz Te completed his hat trick in the second half with a stunning overhead kick. A deflected Carlton Cole strike and an own goal completed the scoring as we ran out 6-0 winners.

A draw and two wins followed in the final three games but it wasn’t enough for automatic promotion but there was a happy ending as we defeated Cardiff home and away in the semi-final of the play offs, and then beat Blackpool 2-1 in the Wembley final in May with a very late goal from, yes you know the answer – Ricardo Vaz Te.

Brighton were a decent progressive side and they eventually achieved promotion to the Premier League at the end of the 2016-17 season. That means that they have been in the top division for six seasons now and are just embarking on their seventh. And what a start! Two 4-1 wins sees them at the top of the table (admittedly after just 2 games), with Manchester City and Arsenal the only other sides to take maximum points at this early stage. But, of course we are not far behind (just two points) after our unexpected 3-1 win against big-spending Chelsea last Sunday, and we sit in equal fifth with a win and a draw.

Brighton have continued to improve each season and their sixth-place finish in the last campaign saw them qualify for the Europa League alongside Liverpool and, of course, West Ham. Let’s hope we can avoid them because we can’t beat them! In the twelve games against them in the Premier League since their promotion we have drawn six and lost six.

We have a better home record against them than on our travels to the South Coast. In the six away games we have drawn twice and lost four times, scoring 4 goals and conceding 13. In the six games at the London Stadium we have drawn four and lost twice scoring 8 but letting in 13. In those 12 games Brighton have never failed to score at least one goal against us, four times scoring 3 times and of course they gave us a 4-0 thrashing last season.

What is the secret behind Brighton’s rise to prominence? They have made significant strides due I believe to careful financial and strategic management with prudent decisions regarding recruitment of players and the club structure. They have identified and signed players to fit their playing style. Adaptable tactics and generally the tactical acumen of the manager and coaching staff has allowed the team to compete against the ‘big teams’. Coupled with their focus on youth development via the academy, a passionate support, and the ability to move players on for extraordinary transfer fees whilst replacing them with like for like replacements have been essential ingredients for success.

They don’t have a scattergun approach to player recruitment. They know exactly the types of players they need to fill various positions and then scout them and sign them. I think that they are a superbly run football club that fully deserve their position in the higher reaches of the Premier League.

As for our start to the campaign, would you have been happy with four points and equal fifth in the league after two games? Last season it took us five games to reach the four points mark, and we were still stuck on four after seven games and sitting in the relegation zone at that time at the end of September.

The continuing debate rumbles on amongst our fans on social media. The split between the Moyes lovers and those who’d like to see a different style of play from a forward-thinking coach. At the time of writing we have three significant recruits to the squad in Alvarez, Mavropanos, and the one I like most, Ward-Prowse. We still need more quality signings – at the moment a few names are constantly being banded about, but as always with our club, if there is any truth in any of them then the negotiations do drag on somewhat. I don’t for one moment expect any of those I’ve seen linked to arrive here. In fact as I write this with evening games being played I even read that one of them has scored a hat-trick for his club in the Europa League! Our recruitment of attacking footballers has generally been sketchy with little apparent thought as to their fit to our playing style. And that’s not just in the Moyes era, it goes back way beyond that.

For the time being Paqueta seems to be staying with potential exits for one or two. Who knows until the deals are done and the transfer window slams shut? Why oh why the window cannot shut before a season gets underway is beyond me.

What will happen in our third game of the season? Brighton have scored 13 goals against us at the London Stadium and 13 goals also at the Falmer Stadium. This is our 13th meeting in the Premier League. Will this be unlucky 13? Our opponents must be relishing the thought of playing against a team they never lose to and generally beat. They are around 2/1 on to win the game whereas we are more than 4/1 against. But we had similar underdog odds against Chelsea and look what happened there. Despite having Estupinan, Mitoma and March in my Fantasy Football squad I’ll be hoping they all have a poor week.

The fixtures computer has given us three away games out of the first four fixtures (it’s away at Luton in the next one) which seems a little unkind before the first international break. Will we be heading to the break with four points from four games, or perhaps with ten? It’s time for another shock result. It’s about time we beat the Seagulls. Few expect it to happen. Few expected us to beat Chelsea 3-1, especially at the half-time interval. But we did. Can it happen? We don’t have a chance do we? Do we??