Since the Under The Hammers Supercomputer, Deep Block, last ran its projections (prior to the Bournemouth game) three of the twelve remaining fixtures have now been completed, replacing twelve hypothetical outcomes with more hard data to assess our survival chances.
Results from those games:
- West Ham 0-0 Bournemouth (H) – Draw (predicted draw)
- Liverpool 5-2 West Ham (A) – Loss (predicted loss)
- Fulham 0-1 West Ham (A) – Win (predicted draw)
These results delivered 4 points from a possible 9, outperforming the original projection of two draws and a loss from these fixtures by two points. In particular, the away win at Fulham is a significant upgrade on the supercomputer’s expectations and materially improves the survival equation.
After 29 matches, West Ham now sit 18th in the Premier League with 28 points, level on points with Nottingham Forest in 17th but behind on goal difference. The teams in the relegation dogfight (the bottom six) currently read:
• 15th: Leeds – 31 points
• 16th: Tottenham – 29 points
• 17th: Nottingham Forest – 28 points
• 18th: West Ham United – 28 points
• 19th: Burnley – 19 points
• 20th: Wolves – 16 points
Crucially, the safety line is currently 29 points based on the season to date (exactly a point a game), meaning West Ham are now just one point behind that current safety level, with momentum firmly shifting in our favour.
With 9 games remaining, the survival target can now be recalibrated:
• Likely safety threshold at current performance levels: 38 points
• Points currently held: 28
• Points required: 10 from the final 9 matches
That equates to 1.11 points per match, which is lower than the rate required in the original model and less than West Ham’s recent form (1.33 per match in last six games).
Of course, results elsewhere can change the safety threshold and 38 might not be enough. But based on current figures Deep Block believes that a spread of 38-40 will be the level needed.
The upcoming schedule still presents major challenges, but the pressure has eased slightly thanks to the win at Fulham:
- Manchester City (H) – Free hit
- Aston Villa (A) – Low probability, but a point possible
- Wolves (H) – Must‑win
- Crystal Palace (A) – Likely draw but winnable
- Everton (H) – Crucial and winnable
- Brentford (A) – Likely draw
- Arsenal (H) – Low probability
- Newcastle (A) – Low probability
- Leeds (H) – Potential season‑definer, perhaps must win?
The original identification of Wolves, Everton and Leeds at home as decisive fixtures to win remains valid. The difference now is that the margin for error has widened slightly.
What has changed since the original projection? The Fulham win is pivotal; it reduces the required points tally and shifts psychological pressure onto our rivals. Forest and Tottenham have failed to pull away allowing West ham to close the gap. Burnley and Wolves are effectively gone, leaving only one realistic relegation place still in play.
Deep Block originally projected a 37‑point finish and 18th place. Based on real results to date, that projection now reads closer to 39 points. Our survival chances have improved materially over the past three games. While relegation remains a genuine risk, the path to safety is now clearer and more achievable than when the original model was run.
If West Ham can beat Wolves, Everton and Leeds, and add two draws elsewhere (the games at Palace and Brentford are the most likely) as per the original forecasts then Deep Block predicts that Premier League survival is more likely than not. But the margins remain tight and depend upon results elsewhere. Failure to achieve the predicted eleven points from these games will likely need points gained elsewhere in the more challenging fixtures.
Assuming that Burnley and Wolves are as good as down (albeit not yet mathematically) the current form (last six games) of the four teams likely facing the final relegation place is as follows:
West Ham: 8 points
Leeds: 5 points
Forest: 3 points
Tottenham: 1 point
If that form continues into the final nine fixtures then we would be home and dry. But the games towards the end of the season tend to be unpredictable. Three games ago Deep Block predicted that we would probably just fall short. It now predicts that we might just be safe. It may yet come down to the final day. And if it does, well this is West Ham. We wouldn’t have it any other way.
Under The Hammers 