Is There Any Hope For West Ham Against Das Invincibles?

Your mission, West Ham, should you wish to accept it, is to come away from the Bay Arena tonight with the quarter final tie still live. Expectations are set no higher than that. On the face of it, this would have been an uphill task at the best of times. With key players, in Jarrod Bowen and Edson Alvarez missing, the challenge is all the more formidable.

Leverkusen have been a revelation this season – arguably European club football’s team of the season. Unbeaten in 41 matches across all competitions and their sights firmly set on a historic treble. A first ever Bundesliga title is all but done, ending Bayern Munich’s eleven season run as champions – bad luck, Harry! A German Cup Final appointment at the end of May against second tier strugglers, FC Kaiserslautern, should be a formality. And then there is the Europa League where they stand as second favourites behind Liverpool.

For the Hammers, it is a game where the pragmatism of Moyesball may well have a valid place, at least in theory. In reality, the approach doesn’t have the greatest track record on its travels against the very top teams. And in all honesty, there have been very few stand-out defensive displays – and even fewer clean sheets – from David Moyes team over the past couple of seasons.

There is little comfort to be taken from claims that West Ham are now seasoned Euro campaigners who have a record of showing up in big games. If teels like clutching at straws. The former might be helpful across a campaign but is tempered by most opponents having hailed from the continent’s second tier leagues; the latter has only been seen on rare occasions. It is not a side with a positive big game mentality. Euro wins against Freiburg and Lyon were exciting but they were games we should be winning. Beating Sevilla was arguably the only true example of overcming the odds.

It is not easy to gauge exactly where Leverkusen would sit in a Premier League context; it is surely top three or four on this year’s evidence. The odds are stacked against the Hammers, especially for an away leg. What is needed is one of those extraordinary resilient displays where the footballing gods, officials, VAR, inspired goalkeeping and poor opposition finishing align to deliver an unexpected miracle.

It will be a fascinating contrast in styles. Moyes set in his ways, rigid formation, narrow defence, low block, ambivalent about possession, hoping for a breakaway or set piece to snatch a goal. Alonso, innovative, focused on flexible roles rather than formations, dominating possession, probing, and with multiple options to breakdown opponents. The threat down the flanks by Frimpong and Grimaldo is a huge danger to a cumbersome backline. It promises to be a long night and it is perhaps appropriate that the city is famous for its pharmaceutical industry – we may all need strong medication by the end of the night.

West Ham have a mixed record against German sides in Europe with six wins, six defeats and one draw. Three of those wins came against Freiburg this season with the others against TSV Munich (1965), FC Magdeburg (1966), and Eintracht Frankfurt (1976). Against that, the Hammers have lost to Eintracht Frankfurt three times, Borussia Dortmund twice, and Freiburg once. This will be a first ever competitive meeting with Leverkusen who themselves have an indifferent record against English clubs – having won just four and lost 12 in 21 attempts.

Moyes has few options to play with from his tiny squad for the game. There must be a good chance that he goes with three at the back in a 3-4-2-1 formation that would match up in a way with the hosts. The issue is that none of the ‘possibles’ to play alongside Kurt Zouma and Dinos at the back has played much football in 2024. Moyes will most likely opt for Aaron Cresswell rather than Nayef Aguerd or Angelo Ogbonna although Aguerd’s pace might represent a more sensible choice.

No question that Emerson plays at left wing-back but it is a toss up on the right between Vladimir Coufal and Ben Johnson. Coufal has been quite flaky in recent weeks. I think Johnson shades it in a wing-back role but guess Moyes will stick with the Czech. By default, the middle of the second row has to be filled by Tomas Soucek and James Ward-Prowse. This a huge worry for me as a pairing – lacking in pace and mobility. The only remaining alternative would be out-of-sorts Kalvin Phillips, but he has, reportedly, not travelled to Germany.

This leaves a front three of Lucas Paqueta, Mohammed Kudus, and Michail Antonio. Plenty of attacking potential but the deeper two may spend most of their time defending leaving Antonio isolated. It is possible that Leverkusen will find Antonio’s muscle hard to handle but he rarely has 90 minutes in him these days.

Leverkusen did have a scare in the Europa League Round of 16 when they went two goals down at home in the second leg to Qarabag. The game followed a 2-2 draw in Azerbaijan. They eventually won the game with two goals in added time. Alonso had rotated his squad for that tie but is unlikely to do so against Premier League opposition. Other than that, the hosts have an impressive home record of 19 wins, 2 draws and no defeats in all competitions.

Minimum requirement from tonight is to be no more than a goal down in the tie. Anything worse feels irretrievable against a team so adept at exploiting space. A win or draw would, of course, be incredible – but just seems so improbable. A secondary objective would be for Paqueta and Emerson to avoid the yellow card that would see them miss the second leg. Wirtz from Leverkusen is similarly at risk.

The best suggestion for tonight is a collective appeal to St Jude, the patron saint of desperate situations and lost causes – mixed with a healthy dose of Motes much vaunted resilience. It’s a long shot but it might just work. COYI!