Can West Ham break the Brighton curse? Will the Seagulls soar or the Hammers strike? The Sunday showdown at the Amex.

West Ham United visit Brighton & Hove Albion at the Amex Stadium this Sunday, with both sides seeking to improve their fortunes as the season approaches its midpoint at the end of the month. Historically, Brighton have dominated this fixture, losing only once in 16 Premier League encounters with West Ham (seven wins, eight draws), with our sole win coming in August 2023. West Ham’s win rate against Brighton stands at just 6%, our lowest against any opponent faced more than twice in the competition. Brighton have also scored more Premier League goals against West Ham (31) than against any other side, and only Manchester United (8 times) have been beaten more often by the Seagulls than the Hammers (7 times).

Brighton enter the match in solid form, having won three of their last six league games. Their recent results include victories over Leeds (3-0), Brentford (2-1), and Nottingham Forest (2-0), a draw with Crystal Palace (0-0), and a 4-3 defeat to Aston Villa and a 4-2 loss to Manchester United. The Seagulls have shown attacking prowess but also some defensive frailties, scoring 12 goals and conceding 9 in this period. For the season to date they have won 6, drawn 4 and lost 4, 24 goals scored and 20 conceded, and sit in seventh place with 22 points prior to this round of matches. But the table is so congested they are just two points below Chelsea in fourth and three points above Bournemouth in fourteenth.

West Ham, meanwhile, have struggled for consistency throughout the season. In our last six matches, we have shown an upturn and recorded two wins (3-1 vs Newcastle, 3-2 vs Burnley), two draws (2-2 vs Bournemouth, 1-1 vs Manchester United), and two defeats (2-1 vs Leeds, 2-0 vs Liverpool). The Hammers have scored 10 goals and conceded 10, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities that have plagued our campaign. For the season as a whole we have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 8 giving us 12 points with 16 goals scored and 28 conceded. Only Wolves (29) have conceded more. As a result we sit in the relegation zone in 18th place, two points adrift of 17th placed Leeds.

Brighton’s squad is stretched by injuries, with Tzimas, Milner, March, and Webster ruled out. Mitoma, Ayari, Watson, and Rutter are doubtful. Danny Welbeck, who has scored six Premier League goals against West Ham, is expected to lead the line, supported by the creative talents of Minteh, Gruda, and De Cuyper.

According to Nuno West Ham welcome back Lucas Paquetá after suspension (but not welcome back for me!), which he believes should bolster our midfield creativity. However, we remain without Igor Julio, Oliver Scarles, and possibly Crysencio Summerville. Callum Wilson, with eight goal contributions against Brighton, will be a key attacking threat, while Jarrod Bowen continues to be our most potent source of goals and assists, although his form appears to have dipped of late. So many of his shots are either missing the target or are getting blocked.

Our last game in midweek was a deserved 1-1 draw at Old Trafford. Personally I was impressed by the efforts of the team as a whole, particularly the performances of Magassa, Wan Bissaka, Potts, Fernandes and Todibo. At last we are getting greater pace and mobility in midfield but I didn’t understand the selection of Soucek and the position he was asked to play; I would have liked to see Earthy given his opportunity to add further mobility to the middle of the pitch. And I couldn’t understand why there was such a delay in making substitutions when we were a goal down either.

Some of the points from Nuno’s conference on Friday: he confirmed Lucas Paqueta is “going to play” from the start after serving his one-match suspension for his red card against Liverpool. Asked if he had any concerns over Paqueta’s dissent, Nuno added: “I already spoke about that. It is in the past. I am positive it will not happen again because he personally admitted his mistake. We spoke about it in the dressing room. I am positive it is over and it will not be repeated.” We shall see!

On Crysencio Summerville’s fitness: “Hopefully returns soon. We miss him. We know what he gives to the team. Let’s see. We need all the players. I hope he can be back. I hope Oliver Scarles can join the team. We are going to need him because we lose our full-backs to Afcon.”

Nuno believes the midfield unit is “slowly progressing in knowledge and complicity”, adding: “Energy. They are all very young. They are growing together. They are slowly understanding the specifics. This is what makes a good midfield. You can’t be an individual. You can’t put two players together and expect them to click immediately.”

Being in the bottom three: “We cannot avoid it. It is a reality. We have to face it. We are fighting for survival. We cannot hide it. The results of other teams we cannot control. It is up to us.” Nuno says he is “slowly trying to fix” our poor record of defending set-pieces and we are now “trying to take advantage of offensive corners” like the one we scored from against Manchester United on Thursday. He added: “We know how important set-pieces are in the game. They are basic and fundamental for any kind of team. Working, working, working. Repeating, repeating. Trying to find the consistency of delivery, trying to mark the strong opponents we will find. The blocks are important. Alphonse got a big help with that also.”

Only Aston Villa have won more points from losing positions this season. But not too many teams fall behind as often as we do! “Everybody in the club is realising we have to give the best of everything. We have to give the best of us to get out of this situation. That is the reality. A club like us, as big as we are, we have to face the situation so we can go out. It is hard to build with urgency but the boys are committed and we think we can do it.”

Brighton have been particularly effective at home, scoring at least twice in each of their last six Premier League matches at the Amex. Their attacking rhythm and possession-based style have yielded results, though defensive lapses remain a concern for them. Under Nuno Espirito Santo we have shown some resilience but lack stability, especially at the back, having failed to keep a clean sheet in our last 11 league games.

Given Brighton’s historical dominance in this fixture, their strong home form, and West Ham’s defensive frailties, the Seagulls are favourites. We can expect an open contest with chances for both sides, but Brighton’s attacking cohesion and home advantage could prove decisive. A high-scoring affair is likely, with Brighton tipped by the bookmakers and most pundits to edge the match. I’d love to think we can surprise them but hope that we can at least add to our recent tally of drawn games and get a 2-2 draw. What are the chances?

After conceding five at Fulham, three clean sheets in a row for West Ham who face the visit of Brighton to begin the New Year

Three defeats in consecutive games have been followed by 19 points from our last eight league games. Meet the unpredictables!

We travelled across London to Brentford on the day before Guy Fawkes. We fell behind, then went in front, then lost the game 3-2 to slip into the bottom half of the Premier League table for the first time after a promising start to the 2023-24 season. What came next in the eight remaining league games of the calendar year wasn’t something that many of us would have predicted.

Four home games against Forest, Palace, Wolves and Manchester United yielded ten points. Not the toughest run of fixtures but nevertheless a good haul and a big improvement on the previous four home league games which had produced just four points. It was disappointing to miss out on the maximum from the four home matches where the Palace equaliser was a gift. Beware Greeks bearing gifts they say.

The four away league games were at Burnley, Fulham, Tottenham and Arsenal. Once again three were won and one was lost. Not just lost, we were slaughtered. Before the games you would have taken nine points wouldn’t you? But if you knew beforehand that three of those games would be won with scores of 2-1, 2-1 and 2-0 and one would be lost 5-0, I don’t think you’d have guessed which one was the defeat.

So there we are, an eight game run in the league with six wins, one draw and one defeat. 15 goals scored and 10 conceded, half of them in one disastrous game. And amazingly three clean sheets to finish off the year. We’d only had one in the 16 previous league games. The halfway point in the season; 19 games, nine at home and ten away, sixth place with 33 points. A year ago after 19 games we had 15 points. That’s one hell of an improvement. But that’s West Ham as all of us long standing supporters will know. We never were, and probably never will be the most consistent team around.

Oh, and in between those last eight league games we all but gifted Liverpool a place in the semi-final of the Carabao Cup, once again conceding five in a 5-1 defeat, but conversely progressed to the last 16 (knock out stage) of the Europa League comfortably beating Freiburg to top the league group for a third year running in Europe.

A European trophy to end last season too, but still the natives (or a proportion – I’m not sure exactly how many) are restless. A trawl through social media sites reveals a continual issue with the manager, the style of play etc. If you’re reading this you know how it goes. There’s quite an unnecessary nastiness among some of the conflicting groups (the Moyes luvvies and the Moyes haters as I’ve seen them called).

Football is a game of opinions and everybody is entitled to their own. Lively debate is good fun and in the end it’s great when people can have their say but then accept that others have opinions that will differ from their own. It’s a pity that some have to resort to personal, often rude remarks rather than debate, but that’s life, and exaggerated throughout social media. Unfortunately there is a culture in football (and life generally) that everything is black or white, love or hate, with no in between.

This is the 32nd season of the Premier League and we’ve been in 28 of them. Fifth is our highest finishing position with 57 points in 1998-99 when we won 16 games but had a negative goal difference for the season. Harry Redknapp was manager and in four of his six seasons in charge we finished in the top half, but we never managed a positive goal difference. In fact we’ve only scored more goals than we’ve conceded three times in those 28 seasons, in the final season 2015/16 at Upton Park when we finished 7th under Slaven Bilic (diff +14), and twice under David Moyes in 2020/21 (6th – diff +15), and in 2021/22 (7th – diff +9).

This season at the halfway stage we have won 10 games, have 33 points and have scored 33 goals. If we can replicate this performance in the second half of the campaign we will end up with 20 wins, 66 points, and 66 goals, all three figures would be new best figures for West Ham in our 28 seasons in the Premier League. The wins and points best figures were both achieved with David Moyes as manager. Having said that we’ve conceded 30 goals so far, so if we don’t improve on that and end up conceding 60 that would be a figure beaten only 5 times in those 28 seasons. The most was 2009/10 under Avram Grant (70) plus the worst goal difference (-27). Incidentally the least goals conceded in a Premier League season was in 2008/09 when just 45 went into our net. Who was the manager then? Gianfranco Zola.

So what will happen when we face Brighton? I haven’t a clue. As always I’m hoping for a win, lots of goals scored and a clean sheet. It would be great to repeat our 3-1 win there in August. But this is West Ham. There can’t be many teams as unpredictable as we are. Happy New Year!

The Annual Ritual Seaside Slaughter: Can West Ham Finally Stem The Brighton Tide?

The patron saint of lost causes daren’t look as West Ham contemplate further humiliation against league leaders and bogey team Brighton. Will the spell finally be broken?

For as long as I can remember, groups of young men have travelled down from London to Brighton on a bank holiday weekend to receive a good kicking. In the old days it was mods against rockers, today it is Hammers versus Seagulls.

West Ham’s Brighton hoodoo is a Premier League oddity which has been overseen by three different managers at each club. The 12 encounters since the Seagulls won promotion to the Premier League show a symmetrical 3-6-3 pattern – three defeats, followed by six draws, followed by the latest run of three defeats. Since David Moyes return to West Ham, he has taken only four points from seven games against the south coast club.

Reports from the West Ham training ground this week picked up a burst of unusual activity with full match highlights of last season’s Brighton versus Everton encounter being broadcast on 24/7 repeat. Nothing would represent the holy grail of Moyesball better than a 5-1 away victory with 22% possession. A repeat of that for West Ham today would surely be Manager of the Month material.

To be fair, the season has started in an unexpected positive vein for Moyes team. They have already surpassed the number of points I had anticipated from the opening six games, even if there has been no discernible improvement in the style of play on show. Four points and four goals from two games is not to be sneezed at. But, the stats for possession and completed passes continue to lag well behind all other teams in the league (or at least those who had completed two games after last weekend’s round of matches).

Moyes may well take the view that the ends justify the means. His caution may have cost two points at Bournemouth but probably won three in the derby victory over Chelsea – a win which generated far more prestige than beating the Cherries would.

Still, it is early days and great things are still possible from the transfer window – if the club finally gets it act together. The current scientific classification for a slow-moving phenomenon is now officially standardised as tortoise, slug, tectonic plates, West Ham player recruitment. However, exciting names continue to be linked with increasing intensity as the window enters its final week. There is an apparent high degree of confidence that Mohammed Kudus will be the next recruit to pass through the London Stadium doors. It would be a cracking signing if it comes off.

Tim Steidten has really started to make his mark in the role of Technical Director although the tension between Premier League experience (Maguire, Lingard) and exciting potential (Kudus, Ekitike) will still be rumbling along below the surface. Steidten has emerged as a transfer man of action and I have this image of snatch squad stalking the backstreets of Europe. A sack over the head of his potential target, bundled into van, whisked off to a disused war-time airfield and flown to an abandoned warehouse in Bow until contracts are signed. Guy Ritchie could do a decent job with that.

Today’s opponents, Brighton, are the gold standard of unearthing a production line of precocious talent at minimal cost. Hard to believe that 25 years ago they almost dropped out of the football league. Under the management of Graham Potter and then Roberto De Zerbi they have demonstrated an excellent balance between organisation and freedom of expression on the pitch that Hammer’s fans have been unable to enjoy. De Zerbi having added goals to supplement the Seagulls fondness for possession.

On paper, the Brighton team looks much weakened from the side who finished in sixth place last season. The loss of Mac Allister and Caicedo for big money and the end of Colwill’s loan must have been disruptive. Yet they have started the new campaign at a canter and currently lead the table with a 100% record and eight goals from two games played.

But as well as a willingness to put trust in young talent, the Seagulls also have a core of older unsung heroes in the from of Solly March, Lewis Dunk and Pascal Gross. Today, they may even have the 67-year-old James Milner wheeled out at right back.

Key to Brighton’s rise has been the ability to buy low and sell on at a profit to unsuspecting big spending opponents. Players who have looked sublime in the blue and white stripes invariably becoming substandard when pulling on their Chelsea strips. It’s almost as if the shirts have supernatural, magical powers capable of enchanting buyers with more money than sense. None of Maupay, Bissouma, Trossard, and especially Cucurella have rocked once away from Brighton. Will the same fate befall Mac Allister and Caicedo?

Since last weekend’s win over Chelsea, the Hammers have added Konstantinos Mavropanos to their ranks. A minor injury, however, means we must wait a while longer to enjoy a taste of Athens – West Ham’s first ever Greek player. With Nayef Aguerd serving a one match suspension, I expect Angelo Ogbonna to be the only change from the eleven that started on Sunday.

Even Lucas Paqueta didn’t see Aguerd’s second yellow card coming, and all is now quiet on any potential move for the flamboyant Brazilian, pending the upcoming FA enquiry. The Daily Mail have really got the bit between their teeth over the betting scandal story, even going as far as sending their fearless reporters to Paqueta Island to investigate. It is a little-known fact that Paqueta is the first Premier League player to have his own island since Gareth Barry.

So, what can we expect from today’s game? A further dose of the extreme and excessive caution that we saw from West Ham last week would be no surprise. But Brighton will not fall into the same trap as Chelsea did of relying solely on crosses to launch attacks. Their trademark is to pass and dribble through the middle. While the Hammer’s defence are comfortable making clearances and heading the ball away all afternoon, they are less adept at dealing with pacy runners. The encouraging news is that Julio Enciso may have to sit out the game due to injury, but that still leaves the fleet footed Kaoru Mitoma to put the West Ham rearguard to the sword.

If the Hammers are to finally put an end to the Brighton jinx they will need all the resilience and determination on show last week. Play like they did in the second half for ninety minutes and there is a chance of stealing a point or more – perhaps courtesy of a JWP special. On the other hand, a typical slow and tentative opening half could prove fatal, allowing the hosts to put the game to bed by the interval. COYI!   

West Ham visit league leaders Brighton in the Saturday evening kick off. Is there another shock result on the cards?

It was a sunny Saturday afternoon in mid-April 2012 when I took my seat in the Bobby Moore Upper (previously the South Bank in old money) looking forward to the game against Brighton, who we had beaten earlier in the season as we pushed for automatic promotion under Sam Allardyce. There were just four games to go as we chased Reading and Southampton who occupied the top two slots. We had been at the top of the Championship throughout much of January and February, but a run of seven draws in nine games had seen us slip down to third.  

The game was a classic right from when Ricardo Vaz Te opened the scoring in the third minute with an explosive shot from outside the area. Vaz Te was in prime form at the time having scored in each of the four games prior to this one, and he scored with a header a few minutes later. Kevin Nolan tapped in an easy third before Vaz Te completed his hat trick in the second half with a stunning overhead kick. A deflected Carlton Cole strike and an own goal completed the scoring as we ran out 6-0 winners.

A draw and two wins followed in the final three games but it wasn’t enough for automatic promotion but there was a happy ending as we defeated Cardiff home and away in the semi-final of the play offs, and then beat Blackpool 2-1 in the Wembley final in May with a very late goal from, yes you know the answer – Ricardo Vaz Te.

Brighton were a decent progressive side and they eventually achieved promotion to the Premier League at the end of the 2016-17 season. That means that they have been in the top division for six seasons now and are just embarking on their seventh. And what a start! Two 4-1 wins sees them at the top of the table (admittedly after just 2 games), with Manchester City and Arsenal the only other sides to take maximum points at this early stage. But, of course we are not far behind (just two points) after our unexpected 3-1 win against big-spending Chelsea last Sunday, and we sit in equal fifth with a win and a draw.

Brighton have continued to improve each season and their sixth-place finish in the last campaign saw them qualify for the Europa League alongside Liverpool and, of course, West Ham. Let’s hope we can avoid them because we can’t beat them! In the twelve games against them in the Premier League since their promotion we have drawn six and lost six.

We have a better home record against them than on our travels to the South Coast. In the six away games we have drawn twice and lost four times, scoring 4 goals and conceding 13. In the six games at the London Stadium we have drawn four and lost twice scoring 8 but letting in 13. In those 12 games Brighton have never failed to score at least one goal against us, four times scoring 3 times and of course they gave us a 4-0 thrashing last season.

What is the secret behind Brighton’s rise to prominence? They have made significant strides due I believe to careful financial and strategic management with prudent decisions regarding recruitment of players and the club structure. They have identified and signed players to fit their playing style. Adaptable tactics and generally the tactical acumen of the manager and coaching staff has allowed the team to compete against the ‘big teams’. Coupled with their focus on youth development via the academy, a passionate support, and the ability to move players on for extraordinary transfer fees whilst replacing them with like for like replacements have been essential ingredients for success.

They don’t have a scattergun approach to player recruitment. They know exactly the types of players they need to fill various positions and then scout them and sign them. I think that they are a superbly run football club that fully deserve their position in the higher reaches of the Premier League.

As for our start to the campaign, would you have been happy with four points and equal fifth in the league after two games? Last season it took us five games to reach the four points mark, and we were still stuck on four after seven games and sitting in the relegation zone at that time at the end of September.

The continuing debate rumbles on amongst our fans on social media. The split between the Moyes lovers and those who’d like to see a different style of play from a forward-thinking coach. At the time of writing we have three significant recruits to the squad in Alvarez, Mavropanos, and the one I like most, Ward-Prowse. We still need more quality signings – at the moment a few names are constantly being banded about, but as always with our club, if there is any truth in any of them then the negotiations do drag on somewhat. I don’t for one moment expect any of those I’ve seen linked to arrive here. In fact as I write this with evening games being played I even read that one of them has scored a hat-trick for his club in the Europa League! Our recruitment of attacking footballers has generally been sketchy with little apparent thought as to their fit to our playing style. And that’s not just in the Moyes era, it goes back way beyond that.

For the time being Paqueta seems to be staying with potential exits for one or two. Who knows until the deals are done and the transfer window slams shut? Why oh why the window cannot shut before a season gets underway is beyond me.

What will happen in our third game of the season? Brighton have scored 13 goals against us at the London Stadium and 13 goals also at the Falmer Stadium. This is our 13th meeting in the Premier League. Will this be unlucky 13? Our opponents must be relishing the thought of playing against a team they never lose to and generally beat. They are around 2/1 on to win the game whereas we are more than 4/1 against. But we had similar underdog odds against Chelsea and look what happened there. Despite having Estupinan, Mitoma and March in my Fantasy Football squad I’ll be hoping they all have a poor week.

The fixtures computer has given us three away games out of the first four fixtures (it’s away at Luton in the next one) which seems a little unkind before the first international break. Will we be heading to the break with four points from four games, or perhaps with ten? It’s time for another shock result. It’s about time we beat the Seagulls. Few expect it to happen. Few expected us to beat Chelsea 3-1, especially at the half-time interval. But we did. Can it happen? We don’t have a chance do we? Do we??