Tag: #COYI

Can West Ham Survive Arteta’s Spanish Inquisition At The London Stadium

Nobody expects a West Ham victory in today’s big London derby. The Gunners have no fear, and the Hammers lack the element of surprise. Will it be an afternoon of torture to endure in Stratford?

It’s exciting isn’t it that West Ham are one of the teams able to have a say in the destination of the Premier League title. As they prepare to face Arsenal this afternoon and travel to Manchester City in a couple of weeks’ time, both opponents will have an eye on the games as a great opportunity to boost their respective goal differences.

Combining David Moyes miserable managerial record against ‘big six’ sides with the Hammers long-term tendency for lame surrender in such games injects a double dose of pessimism into today’s encounter. West Ham’s Premier League record against Arsenal is especially woeful. Just eight wins out of 53 attempts. Since a purple patch of three consecutive wins in 2006 and 2007, there have been just two victories to celebrate from a 34-match run.     

According to reliable sources, the Oracle Cloud algorithm for win probability is struggling to cope with small enough numbers for calculating the chances of a West Ham win. Whereas the Arsenal win probability can be seen from space, the Hammer’s probability is invisible to the naked eye.

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Apart from avoiding defeat, there was little solace to be taken from the performance against Gent on Thursday evening. The Europa Conference campaign has been an isolated glimmer of hope for supporters this season. But as the quality of opponent has improved, performances are beginning to align with those in the league – never mind the performance, it’s all about the result! Being given the run around by a spirited but limited Gent side was unexpectedly dispiriting.

There was a not-so-subtle dig by Moyes after the match about the importance of supporters getting behind the team. Of course, a rocking stadium is everyone’s dream scenario, but there has to be something to get people off their seats – to keep the spirit of the crowd lifted. The atmosphere at kick-off is consistently positive but is sure to lose its sparkle if not reinforced by action on the pitch. Starting on the back foot, defending deep with ten players behind the ball, and failing to get forward in numbers is not a recipe for raising the passions. No surprise that West Ham have still yet to score in the first 15 minutes of any of this season’s Premier League games. It is easy to point to examples at clubs, such as Leeds, and praise the fanaticism of the support but they are cheering a team who are always willing to give it a go, despite whatever other limitations they may have.

Watching West Ham sitting back in passive resignation is about as stimulating and inspiring as settling down for an evening watching the Test Card on TV. While a relegation battle might suggest a reappraisal of tactics, West Ham are relying on the same approach that got them into a mess to get them back out of it. There is not just the one option of grinding out results and hanging on to a lead in every game. Sometimes the initiative must be seized. To play the game on our own terms that askes questions of opponents rather than sitting back and hoping for the best. Learn a little from the style we have seen from the likes of Brighton, Villa, Fulham and Brentford.

I don’t really care much for Mikel Arteta but have to admit that his team play superb fast attacking football and are a joy to watch. For some strange reason, I also have an irrational dislike of Aaron Ramsdale even if he is rapidly becoming England’s number one keeper. The Gunners have tremendous flexibility in the way they approach games with the ability to adjust formation and structure to suit changing circumstances throughout the game – a far cry form our own pre-formed rigidity. They can attack at pace through the middle as well as down the flanks, get plenty of support into the box and never leave their attacking arrowhead isolated to chase lost causes. Saka and Martinelli will give our full-backs a torrid time this afternoon and Jesus is always a handful pulling central defenders out of position. The player who makes everything tick for me though is Ødegaard. He is the dream creative midfield player – great decision maker who rarely wastes a ball. How long since West Ham have had a competent player in that role?

Arteta will now be feeling the hot, garlicky breath of Pep Guardiola on the back of his neck and it will be interesting to see how his team copes with that. A touch of the jitters might be our best hope for this afternoon. I do think that Manchester City will eventually pip them at the post but only based on their prior experience of handling the pressure of the run-in.

What I don’t find as exciting as the tile race is being entangled in the relegation battle. Yesterday’s results were generally favourable for West Ham although Crystal Palace, Wolves and maybe Bournemouth look to have eased themselves clear of danger. It’s now more a six-club race with Southampton starting to lose touch with each passing week. A disastrous result for Everton, a not unexpected defeat for Leicester, and Forest and Leeds yet to play. Could have been far worse in what all the omens suggest will be a blank weekend for the Hammers.

So, what might we expect from Moyes this week? As ever, his decision making will be underpinned by stereotypical caution. Perhaps, he will view a one or two goal defeat as a good enough result in that it preserves the goal difference advantage. My guess is that the starting XI will be the same as at Fulham except for Lucas Paqueta replacing Pablo Fornals. Nothing more adventurous or revolutionary than that. Plan for draw, prepare for defeat. If we are to pick up a point it will as likely be due to a sub-par performance from an anxious opponent than to our own enterprise. The type of game to watch through your fingers. COYI! 

Time Ghentlemen Please: Can West Ham’s Season Be Saved By A First Silverware in 43 Years?

A tricky hop across the Channel to Belgium is the latest destination in the Hammer’s two year European adventure. Can they free themselves from relegation anxiety to post a healthy first leg lead?

The West Ham European adventure rumbles into Belgium tonight for a fixture in the city where it had all began almost 59 years ago.

In September 1964, KAA Gent were known by the French name of La Gantoise when they were drawn against the Hammers in the 1st round of the European Cup Winners Cup. The first leg match played at the now defunct Stade Jules Otten was shaded by the visitors with Ron Boyce scoring the only goal of the game. A scrappy 1-1 draw at Upton Park – Byrne replying after a Peters’ own goal – was enough to set West Ham on the road to a second Wembley final success in two years.

It was easy to imagine back then that silverware might be a regular visitor to the Upton Park trophy room. The club was on the rise, great things were expected and the danger was we would end up with open-top bus parade fatigue before too long. But then reality stepped in and we have had to make do with just two FA Cup wins in the intervening years.

West Ham’s form in the European Conference has been the polar opposite of that served up in league matches. An exemplary record ten wins from ten games played. And a tally of 25 goals that is just two short of the 27 scored in 29 Premier League fixtures. To a large extent this is a reflection of the quality of opposition being faced, but games still need to be won and it has been largely achieved through the efforts of a fringe group of players.

Whether the Euro campaign has impacted domestic performances in any positive or negative sense this season is open to speculation. There have been enough enforced breaks in a stop/ start campaign and sufficient squad rotation to avoid the excesses of fatigue and injury, although shortened preparation time for league games might be seen as an issue.

The same argument is true for the consequences of continued participation between now and the end of May . I would hope fellow supporters starved of silverware for 43 years would be desperate to go all the way to Prague in this competition. But equally, the majority would be distraught at losing our Premier League status. It shouldn’t be a choice of sacrificing one for the other and it would be unforgivable (admittedly in a long line of unforgivable actions) not to take the Euro games seriously.

The narrowest of Premier League breathing spaces was accomplished after plundering three points from Craven Cottage last Saturday. Fulham were the most accommodating of hosts, not only scoring on our behalf but also declining to make much in the way of serious attempts to score at the correct end of the pitch. If there is a dream opponent for David Moyes it would be one who spend the entire afternoon pinging in hopeful balls for a player who is serving an eight-match suspension in the stands. The Moyes defensive playbook is relatively sound when it comes to the art of heading the ball away. It is being attacked direct and at speed where it is full of holes.

We must now hope that Fulham rediscover their mojo before facing Leeds, Leicester, Everton, and Southampton in the other basement battles they are involved in. But the absence of Mitrovic leaves them with little in the way of threat and little left to play for.

Tonight’s opponents, Gent, originally qualified as Belgian cup-winners for the Europa League play-off round where they were soundly defeated 4-0 on aggregate by Omonia of Cyprus. Dropping down into the Conference League Group F, they finished as runners-up to Djurgårdens IF of Sweden. Gent then went on to beat Qarabağ FK of Azerbaijan in the Knockout round and Başakşehir of Turkey to reach the Quarter Finals. The 4-1 second leg win in Istanbul featured the fastest ever hattrick in UEFA club competition scored by Gent’s 20-year-old Nigerian striker Gift Orban. West Ham defenders have a long standing familiarity with gifts but hopefully used up their quota in the recent Premier League thrashing by Newcastle.

The Gent team are enigmatically known to supporters as the ‘The Buffalo’s’ and sport the image of a Native American chief as the club’s logo. Apparently, this is a throwback to a visit to Belgium by Buffalo Bill’s circus at the turn of the 20th century. With circuses and clowns never more appropriate in the stewardship of West Ham – and current leader, Chief Talking Bull – we should feel very much at home.

An advantage that West Ham have when playing in Europe is that opponents are dazzled by the aura associated with teams from the Premier League. Unless opponents have done a detailed level of homework, they will imagine a team of internationals weaving intricate and elegant patterns across the football pitch that are interrupted by sudden and clinical bursts of power and precision that leave them reeling. Little do they know that our style employs all the tactical sophistication and finesse of a mid-table Sunday league outfit.

Gent are riding high in 4th place in the Belgian Pro League with just two games remaining in the regular season – it then splits out into complicated play-off groups that determine next season’s European participation. This tie will be no walk in the park for the Hammers even though they will be considered as firm favourites to progress. In the context of the Premier League relegation battle it would be good to get the tie sewn up in the first leg, but that is easier said than done when a team is schooled to shut up shop at a goal up.

I expect Moyes again to rely on midweek stalwarts including Alphonse Areola, Ben Johnson, Thilo Kehrer, Manuel Lanzini, Flynn Downes, and Pablo Fornals as the core of tonight’s team. Will it be enough? Who knows? I’ve still got my eye on that silverware though. COYI!

If it is any consolation after Wednesday’s debacle West Ham still have a game in hand over all their relegation rivals as they travel to Craven Cottage

But games in hand mean nothing unless you pick up points from them

I find it difficult to add to Geoff’s excellent article this week. If you haven’t read it yet, then I recommend you do so now. Of the nine teams still involved in the fight against dropping into the Championship, only West Ham and Forest have failed to change their manager this season. Will one or both go down? Who knows? It is still too close to call. I keep reading that our manager has one more game to save his job, but if he wasn’t going to go after a 5-1 home drubbing then I guess he’s here for the season now come what may. And I find that truly astonishing.

There are three specific changes I would definitely like to see for our trip to Craven Cottage. Firstly, I believe that a change of goalkeeper is long overdue and Areola must surely replace Fabianski now. Our number 1 has been good, but time is catching up on him.

Kehrer must be replaced by Coufal. I thought Kehrer was badly at fault for the first two goals (although not the only one!). As a defender he lacks awareness of what is going on around him and I believe Coufal, while not perfect, is a better bet in that position.

As for Soucek, I just cannot understand how he can possibly be picked for game after game. To me his season has been full of giving the ball to the opposition or committing fouls and giving an innocent look at the referee as if he cannot understand why a decision has gone against him.

Of course defensively there are others who had poor games against Newcastle. Perhaps Aguerd could be replaced by Ogbonna, but I’d personally be happy to retain him, or perhaps as Geoff has suggested we might even go with a 3-5-2 formation, and keep Zouma, Ogbonna and Aguerd? Fornals and Downes come into the picture, or perhaps play Antonio and Ings together up top and move Bowen a little deeper in a 4-4-2? I don’t think Ings as a lone striker works – he’s not that type of player.

My team would be (4-3-3): Areola; Coufal, Zouma, Aguerd, Emerson; Rice, Paqueta, Downes; Bowen, Antonio, Benrahma.

But I very much doubt that will be the starting eleven.

So who will go down? It’s still a tough question to answer. There’s still only three points separating Palace in twelfth with Bournemouth in the third relegation spot. We are 15th but only out of the bottom three on the basis of (a worsening) goal difference. All the teams involved at the bottom still have nine games to play, although we have ten.

Bookmakers’ relegation odds are not changing too much and we are still eighth favourites to go down. If you look at the form table for the very last game then we are bottom on goal difference! But if you look at the last five games then it is a different story. The three teams who are odds on to go down are Southampton, Bournemouth and Forest. Everton, Leicester, Leeds and Wolves come next (in that order) and then we are equal eighth favourites with Palace.

The league table at present from the bottom up:

Southampton 23 (9 to play), Leicester 25 (9), Bournemouth 27 (9), Forest 27 (9), Everton 27 (9), West Ham 27 (10), Wolves 28 (9), Leeds 29 (9), Palace 30 (9).

The form table (once again from the bottom up) for the last five games played shows ourselves and Leeds as the in-form teams:

Leicester 1, Forest 2, Palace 3, Wolves 4, Southampton 5, Bournemouth 6, Everton 6. West Ham 7, Leeds 7,

None of the bottom seven teams is averaging a point a game for the season to date, although five of the bottom nine teams are averaging a point a game for the last five games played (including two of the bottom three in the league table Southampton and Bournemouth).

I have updated the table that sets out our remaining 10 league games with the figures in brackets the points that we picked up in the reverse fixtures already played earlier in the season. If we were to replicate those then we would collect another 7 points to take us up to 34. Might that be enough? It might be or it might not. We now have only four home games left (where we have collected the bulk of our points this season) and Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United are three of them – not the simplest games on paper. If we are to survive then collecting more points on the road is likely to be vital.

8/4 Away v Fulham (3)

16/4 Home v Arsenal (0)

23/4 Away v Bournemouth (3)

26/4 Home v Liverpool (0)

29/4 Away v Palace (0)

3/5 Away v Man City (0)

7/5 Home v Man Utd (0)

13/5 Away v Brentford (0)

20/5 Home v Leeds (1)

28/5 Away v Leicester (0)

Fulham have had an excellent season and sit in the top half of the table, but their form in the last five games shows only four points attained (three less than ourselves) and they have lost their last three. We must go into this game thinking we can win. But will we be set up by the manager not to lose? The ‘six pointers’ still to come at Bournemouth, Palace and Leicester and at home to Leeds will be crucial to our hopes of survival, but we must look to pick up some points in games where we are possibly not expected to. I think we will win today and I’m confident we will stay up. What are the chances?

There’s Only One F in Failure: Paralysis and Denial Set West Ham on Course For Catastrophic Relegation

Shell shocked West Ham will hope to pick up their shattered reputations as they cross London to Fulham in search of desperately needed points at Craven Cottage

F is for failure, but also for feeble, fiasco, farcical or several other words that are too fruity to mention here. Admittedly expectations weren’t high from Wednesday night’s game-in-hand against Newcastle, but self-harm, surrender, capitulation and a complete mullering hadn’t been on my radar. How might that one-time goal difference advantage look once West Ham have crossed swords with Arsenal and Manchester City?

In other circumstances, the result could be written off as a freak – a one-off like Manchester United losing 7-0 to Liverpool. But we are well aware the problems run much deeper at the London Stadium. Except that no-one seems to want to do anything about it. Continuing to treat it as a temporary dip in form that will be effortlessly turned around by doing the exact self-same thing again for the remaining ten matches of the season.

In his Groundhog Day press conferences, David Moyes has been true to form. Assuring us that his genius had given West Ham and the fans the best two years of their lives by finishing 6th and 7th and presenting the European adventures that this had spawned. Supporters should be grateful for such scraps and are fooling themselves if they think they are too good to get dragged into desperate and demoralising relegation scraps every few seasons. This season, he had been let down badly by the shortcomings of the very players he had signed, coached, and selected. And by supporters who were not fanatical enough to appreciate the alternative interpretation of the beautiful game being served up at the London Stadium. The beauty of Moyes ball can only be truly understood by the perceptive and grounded few!

To be fair to Moyes, that first full season in 2020/21 was excellent as the club established new records for number of wins, points, and size of goal difference. The football played during the purple patch immediately following Jesse Lingard’s loan signing was a joy to watch. The team were well organised but also played with a freedom that is totally missing today. Much of that decline is entwined with the star-crossed love affair between David and Jesse. Moyes couldn’t get his man, lost himself in the pursuit over several transfer windows, and was negligent in not finding an alternative to bridge the enormous gap between midfield and isolated striker.

I doubt Moyes is left with many backers outside of the boardroom, and there are constant rumours of tensions between manager, coaches, and players. It is an untenable situation in the middle of relegation struggle and the only feasible solution is surely a change of manager. Strangely, the Board don’t see it that way – quite what the rationale is for sticking with Moyes defies comprehension. Whatever credit the manager had is well and truly used up, and no-one guides a team to this level of underperformance and then miraculously recovers from it. It is only the inevitable that is being delayed.

The easy conclusion to jump to is that it is all about the money. Yet, for all Sullivan’s deranged attempts to run a professional and sustainable football club, he has invested heavily in it and must be aware that the value of his asset is closely aligned to its Premier League status. The drop in value that relegation would bring far outstrips the cost of compensation payments due. 

We should not ignore, however, that the Newcastle debacle rested heavily on collective and individual player errors. We should demand a reaction from that on Saturday. The views of supporters on individual players – as posted on online forums and social media – is varied and often scathing. At the more extreme end there is no player who escapes criticism of being either hopeless, stealing a living, out of his depth, or lacking commitment. If that is true, then it is a hole that not even a change of manager can repair.

From my perspective, I think the current woes stem almost entirely from outdated and rigid tactics that exist in isolation from the strengths and abilities of the players on the pitch. Sure, some positions require upgrade, but as I have written before, football at the elite level is a game of fine margins that requires a collective sense of spirit and direction. It must combine sound organisation with freedom of expression if it is to flourish and tactics have to adapt as circumstances change. West Ham under Moyes have stood still tactically and opponents will give hardly a second thought as to how we will setup. Even when he makes in-game changes, they are like for like personnel swaps rather than tactical switches. Belief and motivation have disappeared and the the team have been going through the motions. No cohesion, little movement, few options, scant variation.

And so, we are back to yet another episode in the long running series of ‘One More Game To Save His Job’, this time against Fulham. I suppose it means that avoiding defeat tomorrow gives Moyes a free hit to lose to Arsenal the following Sunday, before the last chance cycle repeats again at Bournemouth in two weeks’ time. Seems to make perfectly, practical, and professional sense – to nobody!

I’m wondering whether Moyes will revert to a three/ five at the back at Craven Cottage. It’s rarely looked convincing for us, but it would be a typical Moysey thing to do following a heavy defeat. It would allow him to quietly drop Tomas Soucek for tactical reasons and play Jarrod Bowen further forward alongside Danny Ings or Michail Antonio. The idea of playing two up front but sticking with a back four doesn’t feel particularly viable given West Ham’s tendency for being overrun in midfield. I’m guessing something like: Areola, Aguerd, Zouma, Ogbonna, Coufal, Rice, Paqueta, Fornals, Emerson, Bowen, Ings.

It is fortunate timing that Fulham will be missing talisman striker Mitrovic for the game as he continues to serve his lengthy referee grappling ban. What we need now is for Toney to receive an equally lengthy ban for his betting misdemeanours before the visit to Brentford in mid-May.

Fulham have enjoyed a creditable season so far, and together with Brighton and Brentford have formed a refreshing alliance of ‘minnows’ upsetting the status quo of the Premier League. Whenever I have seen them, they have played an entertaining brand of football under the talented but volatile management of Marco Silva. Silva will be serving a touchline ban for tomorrow’s encounter. What odds a man-of-the-match performance from Issa Diop?

There needs to be a helpline setup for those of us who desperately want Moyes gone but equally would be devastated by a West Ham relegation. Despite a shockingly bad away record it is one of the potential winnable game for the Hammers. But if we get the win, then we are stuck with the manager for several more weeks. Lose, and we might be rid of the manager, but the opportunity for points is lost. What is the right thing to do? COYI

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There was at least some good West Ham news last night when the U18s made it through to the FA Youth Cup Final with a 6-1 victory over Southampton at the London Stadium. It is the first time the Youths have made it to the final in 24 years. There are some serious good prospects among that group and I look forward to the final against Arsenal towards the end of April. Well done lads!

Of Moyes and Men: Will We See Yet Another Cautious, Cowering, Timorous West Ham Display As They Face Newcastle at the London Stadium?

There was a boost to survival hopes at the weekend as relegation rivals jostle for position. What approach will West Ham take as they use up one of their games in hand?

Picking up three points in the weekend fixture at home to Southampton was a welcome relief. It lifted West Ham clear of the relegation places for now, with the battle for survival not showing any signs of becoming less congested. The fat lady hasn’t even had her hair done and there’s much to play for before we know whether she’ll be blasting out a rendition of ‘Bubbles’.

Last night’s results did little to provide further clarity on who is most at risk for the drop. The Hammers go into tonight’s home game with Newcastle in 15th spot but only outside the bottom three courtesy of goal difference. If West Ham should win (strange things can happen during a full moon) then it would rocket them up into 12th place above Crystal Palace.

Sunday’s victory was hardly an inspiring one, with the team once again serving up a lethargic opening 20 minutes – preserving the record of being the only Premier League not to have scored in the opening quarter hour. The tone was set several times in the opening exchanges when Said Benrahma chose to come back inside and play the ball sideways rather than try his luck down the line. Whether that was under orders, to avoid the manager’s wrath, or the sign of a player low on confidence is open to speculation. It was one of Benrahma’s more frustrating afternoons, despite what appears to be a growing understanding with the rapidly improving Emerson.

Although David Moyes has made a slight adjustment to tactics in recent weeks with a formation that is closer to 4-3-3, it is not without its faults in terms of deployment. Declan Rice may be the best candidate to sit and protect the back four, but the team collectively loses out from other important aspects of his game. He is the only player in the squad capable of running with the ball at speed. In this current role, those surging runs are largely curtailed. And Tomas Soucek as part of a midfield tasked with probing and keeping the ball moving is possibly the greatest miscasting since Elijah Wood played Matt Buckner in Green Street Hooligans.

Equally disappointing was the situation up front where the isolated figure of Danny Ings must be wondering what he has let himself in for. I was dumbfounded by Moyes post-match comment that: “we’re only just getting to know him. He’s someone who probably might need more people around him.” Really, David? Isn’t it your job to know these things? Had you never seen him play and recognised his strengths and weaknesses before he signed for West Ham? Mr Due Diligence? Even if Ings was a gift from the Chairman, surely you must have watched him at least once or twice on Match of the Day!

The Saints have an increasing look of doom about them and as things stand are my favourites for the drop along with Forest and Bournemouth. The huge Southampton weakness was the absence of any significant goal threat until they threw on the lanky lad at the end.   

For the Hammers, it should now be a case of three or four more wins to ensure survival in a season that most of us just want to forget. I am clinging to the hope that the manager will be shown the door at the end of the season. There’s nothing to suggest that Moyes has any other game plan than caution, low blocks, breakaways and set pieces. Pre-season talk of a more possession based game turns out to hove been pure fantasy. There is small consolation in the circumstances in that West Ham have one of the better goals conceded records in the Premier League (6th best) – built upon the unadventurous nature of his ultra-low block and massed defences. The elephant in the room for survival is the atrocious away form, and we will need to wait until the weekend to see if that pans out.

This evening’s visitors are having a tremendous season in the league and can now only miss out on Champion’s League qualification with a Kevin Keegan style blowout. Underpinning their success is a surprisingly miserly defence which has conceded just 19 goals all season, seven less than their nearest rival. They have not been an especially high scoring but usually enjoy the lion’s share of possession. I expect Moyes to be targeting a scoreless draw.

The Newcastle team sheet doesn’t look overly fearsome on paper, but Eddie Howe has them playing with a pace, energy and intensity that West Ham supporters can only dream of. Indeed it is a side blessed with pace that are sure to create chances even if they are not the best at converting them. With a bottomless chest of tainted Saudi blood money still to spend they will be a force in English football for years to come. Unless a reappraisal of the fit and proper ownership rules is entered into.

As ever, optimism for the game will probably last until the team-sheets are released an hour before kick-off. Surely, the time has come to give Soucek some bench time. I would prefer to see Flynn Downes as the holding midfielder, allowing Rice to get more involved further forward with Lucas Paqueta. I really don’t see Pablo Fornals as the answer in a deeper role as some have suggested – there is not enough to his game other than running.

Something must also change up front. Ings as a lone striker is nonsense. If Jarrod Bowen cannot be played further forward and closer to Ings, then I would prefer to see Michail Antonio, with all his faults and poor control, in that role. His physical presence and pace is still capable of unsettling defences. Perhaps it is also time to give Maxwell Cornet a run. We badly need a wider distribution of pace across the park.

The Hammers earned one of this season’s modest tally of six away points in the reverse fixture at St James Park in February. The Magpies were without the suspended Bruno Guimarães that day which was quite fortuitous. They are a more complete side when he plays. Another draw wouldn’t be the worst outcome, but ambitions should always be set higher – plan to win, prepare to draw. Unfortunately, we now that type of thinking is not in the manager nature. COYI!    

West Ham’s Rubbish Season Not My Fault Says Man In Charge – Except the Euro Run, That Was Me!

The Premier League’s two basement sides face off at the London Stadium in a stereotypical six-pointer encounter. A victory will bring hope while defeat will leave the loser perilously close to oblivion.

It’s been another long break hasn’t it. To fill in time during West Ham’s enforced 21-day hiatus from league action I found myself watching a cable channel that broadcast output from Premier League Productions. Two programmes grabbed my attention.

The first was a discussion with Brentford’s in-house Sports Psychologist that came with with glowing references from Thomas Frank and key members of the Bees squad. It illustrated just how important belief and state of mind were to the fine margins that exist in modern football, providing further refreshing insight into the workings of a progressive, well-run club. It is pure speculation on my part, but I imagine the powers that be would have no truck with this type of new-fangled, namby-pamby nonsense at the London Stadium. Nothing in the fossil records suggests dinosaurs paid any attention to Wellness and mental preparation!

The second show was a profile of Nayef Aguerd and his journey since signing for the Hammers last summer. It focused on his unfortunate pre-season injury and subsequent rehabilitation up until the World Cup. The surprise here was that despite the outside appearance of a converted shipping container, Rush Green does actually house a well-equipped medical and fitness centre. It’s not just a St John’s Ambulance intern with a first aid box and a bottle of military grade White Horse oil. Even more surprising is the current low occupancy in this famously long-stay establishment. It leaves David Moyes with a fully fit squad as the Hammers embark on an eight-week date with destiny.

My takeaways from Moyes pre-match comments were that, in his view, none of the current woes at the club are down to him. The tactics are just fine. All the problems are a consequence of a drop in form by the players. If only they would ‘turn up’ and eat an extra Shredded Wheat for breakfast, then everything would be hunky dory. He had tried manfully to assimilate a host of experienced international players into the squad but they simply couldn’t understand the beautiful simplicity of Moyes ball. What’s so difficult to comprehend about getting behind the ball most of the time and then charging forward in pursuit of a long ball? How was he supposed to know how and where to play Lucas Paqueta, or that Gianluca Scamacca needs the ball played to feet? It should be no surprise to anyone that it’s taken nine months to work this out – that’s just how things are in the Premier League. Look how well I have managed the squad in the Euro Conference League.

There was a lot of talk in the week about a Toxic atmosphere permeating the club. The provenance of the supposed leak did sound a bit flaky – a mate of a friend’s brother’s uncle – and may have been exaggerated for effect after a bevy of post-match Britneys. But it is safe to assume that all is not well and to conclude that the players have lost belief in what the manager is attempting to do. After all, it hasn’t worked for the best part of 18 months now. As results have fallen away, a form of institutional incompetence and paralysis has taken over both Board and management. An expectation that if they wish hard enough, the good times will return.

Moyes meanwhile displays all the man-management skills of a First World War general – digging out individual players in media interviews rather than taking personal responsibility. Doggedly refusing to recognise how his approach, stubbornness and failure to adapt is at the root of inadequate performances and results.    

For some reason, pundits and bookmakers consider West Ham to be an outside bet from the group of clubs fighting the drop. On the plus side, there are games in hand and a better a goal difference than most. But the team have been in a slow and steady decline for many, many months. The last 38 games have yielded only 35 points. The last 21 aways games just two wins and ten points – averaging below half a point a game. Is that going to change? Manchester City will be damage limitation and a win at Brentford is unlikely. In theory, trips to Fulham, Palace, Bournemouth and Leicester offer hope but will Moyes suddenly throw off the awayday caution that has stymied his side on their travels since January 2022? Who wants to go to Leicester on the final day needing a win?

Home form is thankfully slightly better but three of the remaining games are against top five sides (Arsenal, Manchester United and Newcastle) who boast three of the four best away records in the league. Does past performance against top sides suggest a good points haul from these types of game? Add in Liverpool who will also be looking at European qualification and the challenge looks particularly daunting. It makes the matches against fellow strugglers Southampton and Leeds all the more critical.

Following Saturday’s results, today’s game is the quintessential rock-bottom, basement dwelling, six-pointer. A win would take either side out of the relegation zone. A defeat for either, while not terminal, would be a severe blow for survival hopes. Neither will want to lose as two of the teams who were promoted together in 2012 attempt to preserve their Premier League status. It’s hard to imagine both surviving.

Southampton will provide a muscular challenge despite a raft of injury woes. West Ham cannot afford another typically slow start. Rustiness after a three week lay-off is a distinct possibility given the experience of previous breaks. In theory, the Hammers have the superior quality but it has rarely been given an outing this season. It’s going to be a nail biting, cliff hanging, suspenseful, afternoon. COYI!

As West Ham entertain bottom club Southampton this weekend we try to work out who will go down this season

Get set for the closest and most exciting finish to the Premier League at the top and the bottom

Premier League football emerges from the final international break of the 2022-23 season and resumes on April Fools Day. With the season finale on Sunday 28th May there are just 58 days or a little over 8 weeks for it all to be decided in potentially the most open finish for a while at the very top, in the fight for European places, and in the tussle to be playing top-flight football next season by avoiding the dreaded drop into the Championship. Arguably perhaps all 20 clubs are still involved in one of the three competitions (Top, Europe, Relegation) going into the final two months of a season that was interrupted by the death of the monarch and the winter World Cup in addition to the usual breaks for international football.

I cannot remember a season when there has been such a vast gap between the top and bottom halves of the league with two very distinct sets of teams battling in one or the other. If you want to be pedantic, not exactly halves, but the top 11 and the bottom 9. Depending upon the FA Cup winners and final league placings there are likely to be seven English teams in Europe next season and just 4 points separate Liverpool in sixth with Aston Villa in eleventh place. There is then a vast chasm (as wide as the gap between the top and bottom tiers of the London Stadium) of 11 points before we come to the group of nine clubs at the bottom. Unfortunately West Ham are in this latter group this time around (after two seasons finishing 6th and 7th) where just four points separate Palace in twelfth with this weekend’s visitors to East London, Southampton, who are propping up the table. I suspect that there has never been fewer points separating 12th and 20th place going into April.

As we enter the final run-in we sit in a relegation spot (18th) although we have at least one and in some cases two games in hand over the other eight teams involved. If (and it is a big if) we could win the games in hand over our relegation rivals we would climb into twelfth spot, that’s how tight it is.  

So who will go down? A tough question to answer in a season where a win or two on the bounce can transform the position in an instant by increasing optimism amongst fans and decreasing the perception of how much danger a team is in. We should really just focus on our own results, but it is difficult to ignore what is happening elsewhere when it is too close to call and the stakes are so high.

Opta Stats Perform produce probability of relegation figures and their current figures are:

Southampton 78%, Bournemouth 56%, Forest 50%, Everton 42%, Leeds 21%, Wolves 20%, West Ham 16%, Leicester 11%, Palace 6%.

Skybet relegation odds are broadly similar (apart from West Ham and Leicester changing places in the order) and their current figures are:

Southampton 2/5, Bournemouth 4/7, Forest 10/11, Everton 7/4, Leeds 3/1, Wolves 7/2, Leicester 4/1, West Ham 9/2, Palace 5/1.

The league table at present from the bottom up:

Southampton 23 (10 to play), Bournemouth 24 (11), West Ham 24 (12), Leicester 25 (11), Forest 26 (11), Everton 26 (10), Leeds 26 (11), Wolves 27 (10), Palace 27 (10).

The form table for the last six games played:

Forest 2, Palace 2, Wolves 4, Leicester 4, West Ham 6, Leeds 7, Bournemouth 7, Southampton 8, Everton 8.

None of the bottom nine teams is yet averaging a point a game for the season to date, although five of the bottom teams are averaging a point a game for the last six games played (including the bottom three in the league table Southampton, Bournemouth and West Ham). This could be why it is getting even closer at the bottom than it was a few weeks ago. Form of recent games, and potential momentum gained from those results depends partly on the opposition faced, but has been disrupted by the international break. Palace in particular (and especially their sacked manager) could perhaps feel that recent form gives an unrealistic impression. Despite their long winless run, Palace only faced teams from the top half of the table in that period and did manage some creditable (and possibly unexpected) draws. Incredibly they face every one of the other teams in the bottom nine, five at home and three away in addition to visits to Tottenham and Fulham to finish their season. Their goals have however dried up.

An interesting comparison of goals scored can be made between the bottom 9:

Palace 22, Wolves 22, Everton 22, Forest 22, Southampton 23, West Ham 24, Bournemouth 25, Leeds 35, Leicester 38.

Goals conceded comparisons:

West Ham 34, Palace 38, Everton 40, Wolves 41, Leeds 44, Southampton 46, Leicester 47, Forest 49, Bournemouth 54.

So what can we make of all these statistics as we approach the final games of the season? Goal difference could be worth another point and may make all the difference at the end. Leeds, Leicester and West Ham fare better than the others in this respect. As virtually all the teams in the league are still in contention or have something to play for then the strength of opposition in remaining games might not mean a lot. If all the teams in the bottom 9 averaged a point a game from here, then the final table would see Southampton and Bournemouth relegated with 33 and 35 points respectively, and the remaining seven teams would have 36 (West Ham, Everton and Leicester) or 37 (Palace, Wolves, Leeds, Forest). Unless there was a significant swing in goal differences Everton would be the third team relegated.

The difference between the points for a win (3) and a draw (1) take on added significance at this stage, and even the single points gained from draws could be crucial. Games played between teams in the bottom nine (so called six pointers) will be massively important too and there are lots of these. Palace have 8 of them, Southampton, Bournemouth and Leicester 6, West Ham and Leeds 5, Forest, Everton and Wolves 4. In this coming round of fixtures there are three (‘6 pointer’) games including our own against Southampton.

Conversely that means Palace have only 2 fixtures against teams in the top 11, Southampton have 4, Bournemouth and Leicester 5, Everton, Wolves and Leeds 6, Forest and West Ham 7.

The table below sets out our remaining 12 league games with the figures in brackets the points that we picked up in the reverse fixtures already played earlier in the season. If we were to replicate those then we would collect another 9 points to take us up to 33. Might that be enough? I suspect not, so we must do better. At least 12 would probably be needed, or possibly more. Six or seven points (or even optimistically nine?) in the first three would go a long way to alleviating relegation fears, whereas three points or less would leave us still in the fight for survival. If we could win the five games against teams in the bottom 9 then that undoubtedly would be enough. But that’s easier said than done. And how will our continued involvement in Europe influence things? It will mean nine games in 28 days in the month of April!

2/4 Home v Southampton (1)

5/4 Home v Newcastle (1)

8/4 Away v Fulham (3)

16/4 Home v Arsenal (0)

23/4 Away v Bournemouth (3)

26/4 Home v Liverpool (0)

29/4 Away v Palace (0)

3/5 Away v Man City (0)

7/5 Home v Man Utd (0)

13/5 Away v Brentford (0)

20/5 Home v Leeds (1)

28/5 Away v Leicester (0)

What does all this analysis mean? Will we survive? I think so, yes, but it will be close. An exciting climax for those not involved. Who will go down? Its too close to call but I’ll give it a shot. At this point I’ll say any three from Southampton, Bournemouth, Everton and Forest. But next week I might change my mind!

Ship Of Fools: All Eyes On A European Cruise As West Ham’s Premier League Status Heads To The Rocks

However welcome winning the junior European trophy would be, it does not compensate for the Hammer’s shockingly negative efforts in the domestic league.

The West Ham ship of fools resumes its European adventure at the London Stadium tonight in what should be a second leg formality against AEK Larnaca of Cyprus. The surge of Euro optimism is now alone in keeping West Ham’s season (and David Moyes career) afloat as it sails perilously close to the catastrophic rocks of relegation.

The European Conference is a strange concept. Designed to prevent teams from the lesser associations cluttering up the more prestigious competitions, it will inevitably and ultimately be dominated by the handful of clubs allowed to enter from the elite leagues or those dropping down from the Europa League. The equivalent of allowing parents to take part in the Under 9’s 60 yards dash on schools sport’s day. West Ham’s nine game winning sequence in a season of otherwise desperate struggle captures the situation perfectly.

From now on in, it will be down to the luck of the draw how far West Ham can go. But eventually, the Hammers will come up against opposition from Italy or Spain, and it is difficult to see that ending well if this season’s domestic form is to be our guide. It would be rare for a cup competition to be won by a team that primarily sets out not to lose in any game, and with a manager incapable of making in-game tactical changes to win matches should they fall behind.

Winning the Europa Conference would be a decent achievement. A trophy is a trophy after all, and opportunities don’t come along very frequently in east London. But the bigger prize from winning the Conference would be another season of European football. Although fitting Europa League games in the schedule alongside a 46 match Championship season might throw up some challenges.

***

It was another two points dropped last weekend in what should have been one of West Ham’s more winnable games on the remaining fixtures list. Aston Villa were strangely passive for a side sitting comfortably in mid-table and seemed content to waste as much time as possible. It was an opportunity spurned for the Hammers who were once again constrained by the caution of David Moyes. Time and again, Jarrod Bowen and Said Benrahma were able to get behind the visitor’s defence but not enough players were committed forward to take advantage.

The role of Tomas Soucek was particularly baffling. There are two things that Soucek can potentially offer. Protecting the backline with clearances and interceptions or providing the type of goal threat that was apparent during his first full season. Neither of those were going to happen from a withdrawn position on the right-hand side of midfield. It can only be stubbornness that blinds Moyes to the fact that the energy and passing of Flynn Downes would have been immeasurably better in that role. Or playing the holding role and allowing greater freedom for Declan Rice to get forward.

The debate as to how much individual player performances are contributing to the Hammer’s demise has raised its head again this week. Should Danny Ings have pressed the Villa keeper’s time wasting, or was he under instruction not to do so. Should our full-backs do more to prevent crosses coming in, or are they told to remain narrow across the width of the penalty area? It is difficult to imagine players willingly wanting to play so negatively. Whatever the case, there looks an obvious disconnect between the manager’s tactics and the squad’s desires. It is leaving them unhappy, confused and lacking belief.

It has also become increasingly obvious that the summer signings were brought in without any underlying plan as to how they would be used. It shouldn’t have come as a surprise to managers and coaches – and taken six months to discover – that Lucas Paqueta is more effective when played in a deeper role. Or that Gianluca Scamacca is never going to cut it as a lone striker. What happened to the manager’s canny due diligence? At least most are now finally back fit and available. Touch wood!

After today’s game, West Ham have a break until 2 April before they entertain fellow strugglers Southampton at home. Last night’s results brought some cheer in that defeats for Crystal Palace and the Saints did nothing to ease the congestion at the bottom. There are still nine teams averaging a point a game or less.

Each of the relegation rivals will play again at the weekend making it highly likely that West Ham will be occupying the relegation places – possibly rock bottom – when they resume their Premier League campaign. If the reports coming out of the club are true, the Board have no problem with this state of affairs, and continue to enjoy an excellent working relationship with the manager. Moyes must be far more skilled at managing upwards than he is at managing those under his control.

It would be interesting to know how the owners define success and failure. Given the club’s resources, finishing anywhere outside the top ten of the Premier League would represent abject failure to me. As a supporter, allowing the side to become embroiled in a relegation scrap at this late stage of the season looks like rank incompetence. It is staggering that those with a financial stake in the club don’t see it the same way.

COYI!

Butch Sullivan and the Last Chance Kid: Another Make or Break Week For The West Ham Manager

David Moyes is becoming a regular visitor to the last chance saloon. Will he be giving his last orders at the weekend’s home game against Aston Villa? Or will he come out all guns blazing?

It’s become a little like Groundhog Day at the London Stadium in recent weeks. The club are teetering on the brink of a disastrous relegation with the manager’s job at risk. An adequate home performance releases the immediate pressure on David Moyes. But then, another in the long line of pathetic away displays puts us right back where we started. And so, the cycle starts again. Rinse and repeat!

The away games at Tottenham and Brighton were the first times that West Ham have looked like a team resigned to their fate. The hope that defeat at Tottenham would mean the more enterprising tactics seen against Nottingham Forest were here to stay was washed away like footprints on a Brighton beach. It may have been largely the same team that had thumped Forest, but the attitude was back to the worst of Moyes hyper caution – with the wingers were back to auxiliary defenders. If you don’t give opponents something to worry about then you give them the freedom of the park – and Brighton were adept at using it. How can a manager with a thousand or so matches under his belt not understand that? He even managed to make matters worse at half-time (when the match was still theoretically alive) by replacing the attack minded Said Benrahma with worker-bee, Pablo Fornals.

Those last two games with no goals and just three shots on target between them added to the season’s shocking away form. Just six points and seven goals from thirteen games. Not a single away win in the league since 28 August and victory over this weekend’s opponents, Aston Villa.

There was a pivotal moment at the Brighton match where Moyes scowled with incredulity at the away support who sang “You don’t know what you’re doing!” The fans have had enough and Moyes is demonstrating the notorious thin skin that was a feature of his time at Sunderland. All he has to offer are weasel words about the relative success enjoyed in the previous two years. We thank you for that, Dave. But that was then, and this is now.

The only shock bigger than Moyes believing he is doing a good job is that the Board also seem to think the same. Or, in reality, are hoping to muddle through until the summer in the hope that West Ham can stay up on goal difference. The logic is difficult to fathom. Performances have been on a downward spiral for ages, there are clear tensions between manager and players, a ruinous relegation is just around the corner. How can further inaction make sense? I really don’t believe the ‘there’s no-one better available’ argument. The atmosphere is getting toxic, and change is the best way of clearing the air. Surely, it must be worth stumping up the compensation to avoid wiping untold millions off the club’s value. Whatever their other faults, the owners have invested large sums of money in the club – it’s just that they haven’t spent it particularly wisely. Just look at Brighton and compare the value for money that a proper scouting setup can deliver.

The debate as to how much the players should take responsibility for the current position is an interesting one. At the end of the day that is what we see on the pitch. Michail Antonio fluffing a goalscoring opportunity, Tomas Soucek misplacing a pass, Ben Johnson caught out of position. Are these symptoms or causes of our decline? I’ve not had the impression until recently that the players were anything less than committed. That they might not be as good as the players we would like to have, or are too old and too slow is not their fault.

Football is all about systems now – being well-drilled and attacking and defending as a unit. The best systems allow free expression to be exhibited within an overall structure. Except this revolution has passed some managers by. At the top level there are fine margins and the players must understand and buy-in to what is expected, or they will be caught out. It’s only my personal speculation but I sense that player power was behind the changes and euphoria of the Forest victory, but they were brought down to earth with a bump when the manager wanted to play more cautiously again at Brighton.     

The bottom line is that it is impossible to change a whole squad. Changing a manager is far easier. Something is broken and it needs to be fixed. David Sullivan must understand what is going on at the club and the serious risks of doing nothing. It’s not as if he doesn’t have previous experience of not acting quickly enough.

***

Tonight, sees a return to the European Conference League with West Ham visiting AEK Larnaka for the first leg, round of 16 tie. The competition is the one remaining chance of glory this season. Larnaka are currently second in the Cypriot First Division and have the distinction of having competed in all three UEFA competitions this season. They finished third in their Europa League group which included Fenerbahce, Rennes, and Dynamo Kiev. They reached the Round of 16 by beating Dnipro-1 from Ukraine. Although based in Cyprus, their team is largely made up of players from Spain, Portugal, and the Balkan states.

This will be no pushover against a team of part-time plumbers and postmen, but I’m fancying that we should have enough to come out on top. Whatever the outcome, I don’t see the result having any impact on Moyes position.

***

On Sunday, the crunch will come when West Ham host Aston Villa. The visitors have moved into a comfortable mid-table position since the arrival of Unai Emery. His side are prone to flakiness at the back, but have plenty of pace going forward to rattle the Hammers defence. What will be very interesting is how the crowd react if it’s another slow start from West Ham. It could turn out to be a very difficult watch. COYI!

Are West Ham Ready To Bury The Brighton Hoodoo In Saturday’s Seaside Special?

The Hammers have been looking more energetic and purposeful in recent weeks. Is it finally time to overcome the curse of the Seagulls, or will they take a tern for the worse?

It was another encouraging performance from West Ham in midweek even though it ended with the Hammers being dumped out of the FA Cup by Manchester United. The outcome of the game hinged on several critical ‘if only’ moments that allowed the hosts to recover from a goal down and book their place in a very open sixth round.

At the attacking end, it was Michail Antonio who left fans feeling frustrated. First, when he failed to capitalise on a one-v-one situation with David de Gea and later when going for goal when a square pass would surely have led to West Ham extending their one-goal lead. Both incidents illustrated the strength and weakness of Antonio. Using  his pace and power to engineer openings but without the accomplished striker’s finesse to execute effectively.

At the other end, a collective defensive meltdown in the final twenty minutes placed the usually reliable Nayef Aguerd under the spotlight of supporter fury. It is always unfortunate to gift an equaliser through an own goal and this was an unforced error which should have been avoided. Who knows whether the call came from the keeper to claim the ball or not? Clearly it was very poor communication somewhere along the line. After that, the plot was lost, as was the game.

It is not at all surprising that the upturn in performances (as embryonic as it is) comes after a switch to a more solid 4-3-3 formation. If only David Moyes had listened when I first suggested it last October – as if he would read these ramblings! With the change has come greater pressing in midfield areas, more passing options for the player with the ball, and more freedom for the wide attacking players. It is a particularly suitable set-up to get the best from the talents of Declan Rice and Lucas Paqueta.

Tomas Soucek is the latest bête noire of many supporters who would rather see Flynn Downes as the third man in the midfield three. It is understandable from the point of view of ball retention, but Moyes will continue to opt for the aerial presence that Soucek brings to both ends. Without his goals, Soucek is a frustrating player to watch but he does still provide useful defensive cover.

The full-back positions may need to be shuffled today depending on availability. If Vladimir Coufal is available it will be him and Ben Johnson. If not, then Johnson and Emerson Palmieri – Aaron Cresswell was looking particularly rusty when he came on against Forest. Brighton do a lot of attacking down the flanks through March and Mitoma and the game could be won and lost out wide. In the absence of any other options, Aguerd and Angelo Ogbonna will continue as the centre back pairing. Not ideal having two left footers in the middle and Aguerd on the right imposes severe restrictions on his ability to influence forward play.

Danny Ings will return to the front three alongside Jarrod Bowen and Said Benrahma with Antonio and Gianluca Scamacca providing options from the bench. An Ings/ Scamacca axis would be a fascinating prospect but may be difficult to accommodate without going three/ five at the back.

***

Brighton have had a terrific season so far and find themselves well placed for European football next season. They sit in 8th spot in the league, ten points behind Tottenham but with three games in hand. They are also still in the FA Cup having won their 5th round tie on a cold Tuesday night in Stoke. A home draw against Grimsby Town stands between them and a semi-final place.

West Ham could learn a lot from Brighton’s scouting and recruitment model. Signing exciting young players that no-one has heard of – Caicedo, Mac Alister, Mitoma – and introducing them to the Premier League after spells out on loan. It has proved incredibly successful but requires a degree of planning that seems to be a foreign concept at the London Stadium. The Seagulls are an eclectic mix of young talent and unfashionable stalwarts – Dunk, Gross, March – that are always competitive, despite limited firepower up front.

A trip to the seaside is never complete without a seagull trying to steal your chips. And the same is true in football, where Brighton’s Seagulls have become adept at ‘piddling’ on the West Ham chips. No matter what the relative league positions, current form or respective managers, top flight meetings between the clubs invariably end the same way – a Brighton win or a share of the points. I’m suspecting some form of sorcery or gypsy curse is at play. The Hammers only top flight win against Brighton from 15 attempts came in March 1983 with a 2-1 win at Upton Park. The teams that day:

West Ham: Phil Parkes, Ray Stewart (Alan Dickens (1)), Alvin Martin, Joe Gallagher, Frank Lampard, Alan Devonshire, Paul Allen, Geoff Pike, François van der Elst, Tony Cottee (1), Nicky Morgan        

Brighton: Graham Moseley, Steve Foster, Steve Gatting, Chris Ramsey, Gary Stevens, Jimmy Case, Tony Grealish, Neil Smillie, Andy Ritchie, Michael Robinson, Gerry Ryan (1)

I’d completely forgotten about Joe Gallagher’s West Ham career!

Today’s fixture is the first against Brighton since Roberto De Zerbi replaced the soon to be out-of-work Graham Potter. De Zerbi will serving a one-match touchline ban for his red card in his side’s 1 – 0 defeat to Fulham in their most recent home game. I’m not sure how much of a punishment a touchline ban actually is. It seems no more than a symbolic gesture – the equivalent of a player being allowed to play but not allowed to take throw-ins.

Now that I’m feeling a touch more positive about the Hammers credentials for survival, I have decided to reinstate my AI powered match result prediction service. After running the numbers the verdict is: West Ham to rip up the record books with a first ever Premier League victory against the Seagulls by two goals to one. COYI!