Category: Preview

When I first started following professional football more seriously as a boy, when my preferred bedtime reading was the Playfair Football Annual, Burnley were one of the top sides in the English league.  At the time I would have been able to recite their preferred line-up from memory; which started something like Blacklaw, Angus, Elder, Adamson and so on.  They had won the old First Division in 1960 and were runners-up in both league and cup in the 1961-62 season.  It is fair to say that times have changed dramatically since those days when even Tottenham Hotspur didn’t choke in the final furlong.

Nowadays, most Hammers probably regard Burnley as one of the minions of the Premier League (and in financial terms they languish some way behind West Ham) and yet they sit comfortably in 7^th place with the luxury of looking down leisurely at the frantic scramble below them for top flight survival.  Much of the credit for the new found stability must go to gravelly voiced manager, Sean Dyche, the most famous product from Kettering since Weetabix.  Burnley sensibly stuck with Dyche following relegation in 2015 and, following a quick return, they have emerged as a hard working, difficult to beat Premier League outfit.  There are many parallels with Fat Sam’s old Bolton Wanderers side but with several shades less negativity.

In contrast, things are so bad at West Ham at the moment that it feels like the club must have collectively got out of the wrong side of the bed at the start of the season.  A mini-revival in fortunes at the 2017 has faded and died and there is now the very real danger of relegation haunting the London Stadium.  The Hammers appear to have hit a wretched run of form at just the wrong time.  Mark Noble writing on the official West Ham website has told us not to worry and that everything will be OK.  I am not sure if those are reassuring words or cause for even more worry by what could be taken as a show of complacency.  What is needed is a fight and commitment shown by a team who know they are in a very perilous position.  The current off-field disenchantment around the club doesn’t help either and it has created a toxic environment that must have a knock-on effect to the players.  Not that there are not genuine grievances that, until now, have fallen on deaf ears in the boardroom.  But I do wonder whether now is the right time to air them when the team need a united support to get them across the seventeenth position line.  At least the threat of the march has disappeared but not without a degree of farce reminiscent of the splitters in Monty Python’s Life of Brian – the ‘Poplar’ Front of Judea maybe!

Head to Head

Although the all-time record against Burnley is close to neck and neck, the Hammers have bossed recent meetings having won eight of the last twelve (home and away) and ten of the last twelve home games.  The last Burnley win was at Upton Park in December 2011 when the Clarets came from behind to win 2-1 and prevent the West Ham going to the top of the Championship. The most recent top flight Burnley win was a 2-1 victory at Turf Moor against Gianfranco Zola’s Hammers in February 2010.

In the reverse fixture in October the Hammers were on course for a welcome three points until the game changing and unnecessarily foolish sending off of Andy Carroll.

Team News

Apparently today is designated in the gaming community as Mario Day (on account of it being MAR10) and just maybe this is an omen for a super display from our Portuguese loanee who, so far, has flattered to deceive.  At this stage of the season we need to clutch at any straw that is available.

After two feeble 4-1 reverses on the road we should expect to see several changes today.  It would not surprise me if Joe Hart replace Adrian in goal although it is difficult to pin much blame on the Spaniard for recent performances.  In the centre of defence we will need height to combat the visitors most dangerous threat.  With Winston Reid (and Sam Byram) reported to be out for the season options are limited and the hope is that both Angelo Ogbonna and James Collins have recovered from their problems of last week.  The presence of Aaron Cresswell in the back three always makes me nervous and especially so against a team who are strength is aerial power.  Declan Rice deserves to keep his place but the dilemma is whether to play him at the back or as emergency central midfielder to cover for the continuing flaws in the Noble – Cheikhou Kouyate partnership.

In the more advanced positions there is a desperate need for width and surely Michail Antonio will be a starter this week.  Unfortunately neither Pablo Zabaleta nor Patrice Evra can offer much of an offensive threat which maybe another argument for returning Cresswell to a left (wing) back role.

It is difficult to see how Javier Hernandez fits into the equation.  Undoubtedly he is the best natural finisher at the club but usually offers little outside of the penalty area.  Somehow fashioning Mark Arnautovic, Manual Lanzini, Antonio and Joao Mario into an effective attacking unit could be the best option of causing Burnley damage.

Burnely have their own injury problems and are reported to be without Arfield, Defour, Walters, Brady (who has frequently given the Hammers a torrid time) and keeper Heaton.

The Man in The Middle

Lee Mason from Greater Manchester controls his third Hammers match of the season with the previous two ending as 3-2 defeats: away at Southampton (where he sent off Arnautovic) and home to Newcastle.  In his twenty outings this year his record is fifty-three yellow and three red cards.

Predictions

The safest prediction of the week is that Lawro would have this down as a 1-1 draw. Merson, on the other hand, senses a West Ham reaction and a 2-0 home win.  Burnley are not going to be worried about possession stats and will put the onus on West Ham to break them down.  The usual laboured slow-slow predictable build up is not going get very far.   Maybe we can hope for a little less desire from Burnley with thoughts shifting onto the summer holiday brochures after a job well done.  In any case West Ham need to be fully up for today’s game and I will have everything crossed to take anything from a scruffy win to a pedigree performance.  Perhaps it will turn out to be an opportunity for Joao Mario to celebrate his special day by netting a glorious winner.

The competition to see who will come out on top in Premier League 2 is as fierce as ever. Ignoring the top six in the Premier League it is anybody’s guess as to how the remaining 14 teams will finish the season with just ten games to go.

The bottom 14 teams in the Premier League after 28 games	Points after 28 games	Goal Diff.	Pts in last 5 games	Home games to play	No. of top 6 teams to play	Burnley LeicesterEverton Arsenal  To play
7.  Burnley	37	-3	3	5
8.  Leicester	36	-1	5	5
9.  Everton	34	-15	7	5
10. Watford	33	-9	7	5	4	2
11. Bournemouth	32	-10	8	5	3	1
12. Brighton	31	-11	8	5	5	3
13. West Ham	30	-15	5	6	4	4
14. Huddersfield	30	-23	6	5	4	2
15. Newcastle	29	-11	6	5	4	3
16. Southampton	27	-12	6	4	3	2
17. Crystal Palace	27	-18	2	5	3	1
18. Swansea	27	-20	10	5	3	1
19. Stoke City	26	-26	6	5	4	3
20. West Brom	20	-20	1	5	3	2

Of course there is no official competition to finish seventh, and who cares about finishing positions? Of course prize money is at stake, but with the vast amounts of money awash in the Premier League these days, the final position in the table is not especially relevant. Of most interest is the battle to avoid the drop, which has massive financial implications. I’m making an assumption that Burnley, Leicester and Everton probably have enough points not to be involved in the scrap, and that the bottom 11 teams from Watford down are still involved to a greater or lesser extent. In fact we have to play those three teams (who should be OK) still and that may be to our advantage as they may have switched off a little, as may Arsenal who are unlikely to move upwards or downwards in the table being isolated in sixth place.

Looking at the data above then West Brom and Stoke along with the three teams on 27 points have the most to do in terms of points needed. The bottom three at the moment have the worst goal difference together with Huddersfield and Palace, but looking at the form of the last five games then Swansea, Bournemouth and Brighton have achieved the most, with West Brom, Palace and ourselves at the bottom of the last five games form table.

All of the teams have 5 home and 5 away games to play with the exception of ourselves (6) and Southampton (4), which is a result of the switch at the very beginning of the season. Brighton have the most top 6 sides still to play (5), with all the other teams involved having 3 or 4. And finally looking at my identification of games to play against the four teams with the least to play for, then we still have to meet all four of them. Some might say though that is a disadvantage as the teams may be more relaxed and as such could give us a tougher game.

Whichever way you look at it, it is difficult to make a case for West Brom to survive. If they did it would be up there with the great escapes of the past, including our own in 2007. You can perm any two from five for the others to be playing Championship football next season, but looking at all of the factors my money would be on Stoke and Southampton to be the ones to join the Baggies. But it is so close, a lot can still happen, and this can easily change.

Our next three games at Swansea (today), then at home to Burnley and Southampton, will be ones that on paper we would expect to move us further clear of the bottom three. But if we don’t then the tough games to follow could mean we are still in deep trouble.

Of course watching the news this week, all the talk and pictures has been of the worst snowfall throughout the country for many years. Based on this, the warnings for most of the country not to travel unless absolutely essential, and the forecast for more snow this evening, then at the time of writing, I am amazed that all Premier League games are still set to go ahead. I hope that for the sake of travelling fans, especially our own with the potential difficulties of a long trip to South Wales, that decisions are not left until the last possible moment. But as we have seen with the recent announcement of TV games scheduled to be played on live TV, and the changes of dates involved, little thought is given to the supporters actually going to the matches, everything seems to be decided by Sky and BT who have final say.

Contradictory head to head statistics give us little clue as to the outcome of today’s game. On one hand, Swansea have only beaten us once in our last ten meetings, but on the other hand, they have never lost to us four times in a row, which would be the case if we beat them tomorrow. Over the course of history we are well on top in terms of wins, but just 15 of the 62 meetings have ended in draws. The bookmakers have Swansea as slight favourites to win the game, and given their recent form this is justified. However, when it comes to the correct score, then 1-1 is favourite at 5/1, and I would be happy to leave South Wales with at least a point.

Virtually all of our key players are fit, and it will be interesting to see the side that Moyes selects. I have given up trying to predict this, but I will agree with the bookies on a 1-1 draw, and Andre Ayew would seem a good bet to score the Swansea goal.

At the time of finishing this article, (9pm on Friday evening) all this weekend’s Premier League games are expected to go ahead despite the continuing snowfall and freezing conditions that are gripping the whole of the UK. We shall see.

Not exactly an unstoppable force meeting an irresistible object but today’s game does pitch a ‘must win’ Swansea side against a ‘mustn’t lose’ visiting West Ham.  Both sides were on the wrong end of heavy 4-1 away defeats last weekend, against Brighton and Liverpool respectively, although the Swans have since picked themselves up, dusted themselves down and made it through to the sixth round of the FA Cup.

The Swans are still in the throws of  a new manager bounce following the appointment of Portu-geezer Carlos Carvalhal in December 2017, their ninth manager in ten years of whom only Roberto Martinez has lasted more than two years.  With Carvalhal’s record of seventeen jobs in twenty years it would be ambitious to expect long service awards at the Liberty Stadium any time soon.  That aside, Swansea have won their last three home league games (and last six in all competitions) to rejoin the pack of clubs with all to play for in the relegation stakes.  A win today would put them on equal points with the Hammers.

West Ham, on the other hand, will need to up their game considerably from that on display during their defeat at Anfield although the prospect of facing a pair of Ayews is far less formidable than what the Merseysiders had to offer; even for West Ham’s timeworn and dawdling defence.  The other variable for today’s game is the weather conditions and although technology has meant that Premier League games are no longer called off due to frozen pitches, there will still be safety concerns for those attempting to travel to South Wales this afternoon.

Head to Head

West Ham have won six of the last twelve fixtures with Swansea and have also been victorious in five of the last twelve away games.  The last defeat on the road was in August 2012 and last season the Hammers came away with a resounding 4-1 Boxing Day victory.

Team News

The usual names are on the West Ham absentee list which is thankfully shorter than a few weeks back.  Arthur Masuaku serves the fifth of his six match spitting ban, Pedro Obiang is, of course, out for the remainder of the season and the Hammers are also without the elusive Andy Carroll and the even more elusive Edmilson Fernandes.

Changes from last week’s starting eleven should be expected and I would hope to see either Winston Reid and/ or Declan Rice returning to the back line and one of Michail Antonio or Little Pea starting in place of Joao Mario.  Any realistic solution to the fragility and ineffectiveness of the Noble – Kouyate central midfield partnership seems as unlikely as finding a simple answer to the frictionless Irish border conundrum.

Swansea are without long term injured Bony, Fer and Angel and look set to give a first start since his return to Wales to former Hammer, Andre Ayew.

The Man in the Middle

Familiar face Martin Atkinson will be officiating his fifth West Ham contest of the season but has yet to see a Hammers win.  Previous attempts have ended in defeats away to Manchester United and at home to Brighton plus two home draws with Leicester and Bournemouth.  Atkinson has been in charge of twenty four games this term issuing eighty-one yellow cards and four red ones.

Predictions

Lawro has returned to his favourite 1-1 scoreline for today’s game while Merson is predicting a 1-0 Swansea win.  Chances are that the Hammers will need to rely on the form of Marko Arnautovic once more to get anything out of the game but the hopeful presence of Manuel Lanzinin and Antonio can also cause the home team enough problems to compensate for erratic defending at the other end.  With all of my frost bitten fingers and toes crossed I am banking on Marko showing himself as the true beast from the east today and  inspiring the Hammers to an odd goal victory.

Apparently a grand total of 29 players have played for both West Ham and Liverpool over the years but there is one other thing that connects these two clubs – that their best days were back in the distant past.  While most West Ham fans have their tongues firmly planted in the their cheek when claiming that the Hammers won the World Cup it is still many years since the scent of glory was detected anywhere near the east-end of London; in fact, the closest in living memory for the majority of supporters would be the infamous ‘drawn’ 2006 cup final against today’s opponents.

Liverpool, on the other hand, were the undoubted superstars of the English First Division for a good part of the 1970’s and 1980’s.  Yet they now only sit above West Ham in the list of Premier League titles won by virtue of alphabetical order – much to the frustration of their entitled supporters.  Perhaps a more fitting anthem for the Merseysiders than the maudlin ‘You’ll Never Walk Alone’ is the refrain from the song Sit Down which desribes their predicament most succinctly: “Now I’ve swung back down again, and it’s worse than it was before.  If I hadn’t seen such riches, I could live with being poor!”

In truth, Liverpool under Klopp are one of the most exciting sides to watch in the Premier League; alongside Tottenham (whose own delusional sense of glory is based solely on winning the double almost sixty years ago).  It would be no surprise if it were one of those two teams who ended up in second place to runaway leaders Manchester City, even if they will both have effectively been lapped, come the end of the season.   The big challenge for will then be to hold on to their top performers (and managers) when the truly big clubs come-a-knocking.

Head to Head

If the north-west in general is not a happy hunting ground for the Hammers then visits to Anfield are a desolate wasteland with a return of just four wins (forty four defeats) from sixty six attempts.  West Ham are, however, unbeaten in their last three visits including the memorable 3-0 victory for Slaven Bilic’s side in August 2015.  It was, however, defeat by Liverpool at the London Stadium in November that hammered the final nail into Bilic’s managerial career at West Ham.

There are some bad memories associated with Liverpool and relegation as it was the Reds who had beaten the Hammers in the final matches of both the 1977/78 (crushing my belief that West Ham were a perennial top tier club) and 1988/89 seasons to confirm the worst.  At least there will still be ten games to play after today.

Team News

West Ham resisted the urge to jet off somewhere exotic for a spot of warm weather training during their week off; a tactic that in previous years has precipitated a run of poor form.  It is reported that both Manuel Lanzini and Winston Reid are available for selection while Jose Fonte has popped out for a Chinese.  My sense is that while Reid may play, Lanzini will be start on the bench.  Whether we will see much of Lanzini and Joao Mario on the pitch at the same time will be interesting but I can’t see it happening at Anfield.

There are no prizes for guessing what the West Ham tactics will be for the game and a repeat of the backs to the wall and hope for a smash and grab approach that almost upset Manchester City and earned a point at Tottenham is to be expected.  The problem with parking the bus at Anfield is that there is a high probability that some scally will sooner or later turn up to nick a goal (as well as the hubcaps.)  While I would have confidence in our central defenders deftly heading away crosses until the cows come home, they typically struggle against the trickery and rapid interplay that is a feature of Klopp’s team.  If and when the first Liverpool goal goes in it is difficult to see where a West Ham response could come from; and there is goal difference to play for as well as points.

Liverpool, who took a break to Marbella as reward for their FA Cup exit, have no injury worries unless a late outbreak of Spanish tummy runs through the squad.

Man in the Middle

Today’s referee is Stuart Atwell from Warwickshire who should be fresh in the memories of supporters as the man who overruled his assistant to allow the offside/ handball Bournemouth equaliser having previously shown undue leniency to a Cherries defender for a reckless red card challenge.  He owes us one for that.  He also, with some justification, sent off Andy Carroll at Turf Moor earlier in the season.  In twenty games this season, Carroll is his only red card to go along with seventy yellow ones.

Predictions

In a rare alignment of the planets, both Lawro and Merson are going for a 3-0 home win.  I admit to having drawn a huge sigh of relief at reaching thirty points after the win against Watford but subsequent results served to trim the breathing space back down to a measly four points.  This game might be seen as a free spin for West Ham but it is vital that it is not a crushing defeat.  Perhaps the away win unicorn could put in an unexpected appearance or inspired defending could secure a precious point but, in reality, confidence is not high of getting anything from the game other than a respectable scoreline and no further injuries.

This weekend we resume our battle for top flight survival with a difficult away game at Liverpool, who remain unbeaten at Anfield this season, although six of their thirteen visitors have come away with a point. Five of them are not particularly surprising as they are all top half teams, namely Burnley, Manchester United, Chelsea, Everton, and Tottenham. But in December the team now rooted to the foot of the table, West Brom, managed a goalless draw there.

Although our form over the last dozen games is impressive we are still only four points above the relegation zone. 20 points in those 12 games is a magnificent haul with 5 wins, 5 draws and just 2 defeats, and is bettered only by the very top teams. The disappointing feature though is that it could, and perhaps should, have been so much better. The two losses in that run were at home to Newcastle and away at Brighton, whereas two of the draws were disappointing home games against Bournemouth and Palace. We could be well away from the drop zone by now, but instead we are still in the mix, and failure to pick up something in the next two away games starting today against in-form teams Liverpool, looking to score four goals for the third game in a row, and next week the resurgent Swansea, would keep us well in trouble.

Liverpool themselves have no real injury concerns and can field almost their strongest line-up. They have won six of their last eight games and their only defeat in the last four months came at the hands of Swansea just a month ago. I noticed a statistic on the BBC website that said that Jurgen Klopp has suffered 17 league defeats as a manager of Liverpool in the whole of his time there, and if you averaged out the position in the table of those teams who beat them – then it is 12^th. We are currently 12^th in the table, but that is really clutching at straws!

For some time now I have had Mo Salah in my fantasy team, and he is continuing to impress with his goalscoring and assists. We will do well to keep him quiet. And apparently David Moyes has managed 14 visiting sides at Anfield and never managed to win there. Well there’s always a first time!

The bookmakers don’t really give us a prayer in this game quoting odds of 12/1 on a Hammers win and 6/1 on the draw, with Liverpool 1/5 to collect the three points. If you believe that we can sneak a win then you can get 35/1 on a score of 2-1, 45/1 on 1-0, and 80/1 on 2-0, with some very big odds if you think we can do better than that.

One thing in our favour is that our lengthy injury list of a few weeks ago seems to be largely diminishing, but this game will be a real test of how far we have come since the arrival of the new manager, and conversely will show how much further we still have to go. I noticed that after the Watford game David Moyes was targeting a top ten finish. On paper might not seem too much of a target as we are only one point off tenth position. In fact we are only six points behind Burnley who are lying seventh, but that would almost certainly be too much to hope for, even for the most optimistic of us, given the difficulty of many of our fixtures in the last eleven games. In eight of them we play teams currently filling the top nine places in the table.

Apart from Carroll, all of our attacking players seem to be fit, and it will be interesting to see how many of Chicharito, Arnie, Lanzini, Mario and Antonio will be accommodated into the team, especially for a tricky away fixture. My prediction for the team he will pick, and I very rarely get this right, is:

Adrian, Zabaleta, Collins, Ogbonna, Cresswell, Kouyate, Noble, Mario, Antonio, Arnautavic, Chicharito. Lanzini may be left on the bench after a lengthy lay-off together with Hugill, Rice, Byram, Reid, Hart and Cullen.

It is hard to see us winning the game, and probably the best we can hope for is a draw. But what I’ll be looking for is a competitive performance that will stand us in good stead for the run-in, irrespective of the result. 0-0 would be a very unlikely score against our free-scoring opponents and is priced at 25-1! I wonder if we can keep the score to that after 90 minutes?

Apparently, the latest product to go on sale in the club shop is the claret and blue Oxo cube – and as you might expect it is being marketed as the laughing stock.  OK, so it’s an old joke but, for a club with a long history of faux-pas, self inflicted gaffes and off-field own goals, a new low of incredulity has been reached over the past few weeks.  Unfathomable transfer dealings, claims of racism in recruitment, plans for protest marches and culminating in woeful PR from the Board where the subtext of the message is ‘it’s our club we don’t care!’

While the West Ham owners have much to answer for, particularly with respect to unrealistic expectation setting and broken promises, there is now an unstoppable bandwagon upon which a large section of the media has now jumped.  It would be no surprise to read in the comin weeks that Messrs. Gold and Sullivan are also responsible for global warming and the fatberg in the London sewers.  I don’t recall West Ham ever having lovable owners (apart from that brief Icelandic big-spending honeymoon period maybe) but the current club custodians now have an approval rating that gives the Bond scheme a real run for its money.  The relationship between supporters and owners is invariably a fraught one, except during periods of success, as each group makes its own claim as to whose club is it anyway.  The apparent shambles that currently exists on and off the pitch and the lack of any empathy between Board and supporters does not bode well for creating a happy environment in which the team are meant to play football.

Today’s visitors are another of the sides embroiled in what has become the relegation play-offs; although a surprise 4-1 win over Chelsea last Monday sees them sitting three points better off than West Ham.  Rewind a few weeks to a time of greater optimism and a look at the fixture list might have led a glass-half-full Hammers fan to imagine sitting pretty at around 33 points by now.  But failure to win any of the games against Palace, Bournemouth and Brighton have necessitated a rapid re-calibration of those confidence levels.  With injuries, suspensions and injudicious transfer activity I am now looking at the expected line-ups this afternoon and concluding that Watford (yes, Watford) look far stronger on paper than a club which is allegedly in the top twenty of the world’s rich league.

Head to Head

West Ham’s overall home record against Watford is a good one although the Hornets were the first visiting team to win a league match at the London Stadium when they came from two goals down to win 4-2 in September 2016.  In the last twelve home games against Watford, West Ham have won eight and lost three.

Apart from that 4-2 reverse the last home defeat to the Hornets was on this very day in 2007 when, despite having Nigel Quashie in midfield, Alan Curbishley’s side went down 1-0 to bottom of the table Watford.  Carlos Tevez was on the bench that afternoon in the days before going on to single-handedly save the Hammers from relegation.

The reverse fixture this season was David Moyes first as manager where he witnessed an uninspired performance leading to a 2-0 defeat.  He will be expecting a better effort this afternoon.

Team News

The straw to clutch at for today is the will-he-won’t-he return from injury of the latest club saviour Marko Arnautovic – although I imagine he will be on the bench.  Other than it seems that we must look for inspiration to a 36 year old full-back who hasn’t played a competitive game since his sacking by Marseille in November 2017.  Only at West Ham could playing Patrck Evra in defence have little impact on the average age of that unit.

Best guess for the line-up would suggest a couple of changes from the team that performed so poorly at Brighton with the Pablo Zabaleta in midfield experiment being quickly abandoned in favour of a return to the Mark Noble/ Cheikou Kouyate combo that has failed to inspire confidence for much of the past two years.  Possibly Winston Reid will return in defence but there is talk that having recovered from his injury he is now laid low with a sore throat (so that talk would be in a hoarse kiwi accent.)  I don’t like the idea of Declan Rice in defensive midfield but things are so desperate that I would be tempted to give it another go.

The front three will most likely see Joao Mario and Michail Antonio supporting Javier Hernandez.

Watford are also without several injured players and there is not even any comfort for the Hammers in that given that one of the missing players is comedy defender Younes Kaboul.   The Hornets have some fine players and I have been impressed with the likes of Doucoure, Capoue, Richarlison and Pereyra in the past and there is also the question of Deulofeu, at one point linked with a loan move to the London Stadium.

The Man in the Middle

Please welcome Graham Scott from Oxfordshire a rare but lucky visitor to West Ham matches .  In the most recent Hammers encounters, Scott was in charge of this season’s away win at Stoke as well as victory last season at Southampton.  In twenty one games this term Scott has shown fifty-four yellow cards and four red ones.

Predictions

Both Lawro and Merson smell a Hammer’s victory by 1-0 and 2-0 respectively.  I wish I had their confidence as I think we will struggle badly in midfield unless there is a massive reaction to last week’s disappointment.  Even then it is not going to inject the badly missing and much needed pace into the heart of the team.  A win is badly needed but I can only see a point at best.

The Premier League is the most popular league in the world in terms of spectators and media appeal yet we all knew who would win the title after just a few short weeks of the season. And before the season started we all knew which teams would occupy the top six places, even if we weren’t exactly sure as to the exact order they would finish in. And as we all predicted, the top six places have gone to the “big six” in terms of the revenue that they generate, and I’ve no doubt the same will happen next season. OK, so there is still a mini competition taking place to see which clubs will finish in the top four and qualify for the Champions League, but in reality the most “popular” league in world football is so predictable, and it all comes down to money.

We are not alone. The “generally recognised” big five European Leagues have all turned out as expected. Manchester City’s 13 point lead in England is well beaten by Bayern’s massive 18 point advantage in Germany. PSG are 11 ahead in France, Barcelona are 9 clear in Spain, and the only competition for the title outright is in Italy where Napoli and Juventus are just one point apart, although 13 clear of the pack. Season after season the same teams qualify for the latter stages of the Champions League. It is all so predictable. And as a result, it is becoming boring.

For me the most interesting aspect of the Premier League is not who is going to win it, or even qualify for Europe, but the real competition involves the 14 teams who have no chance of winning, and little likelihood of qualifying for a place in the Champions League. If the predictability continues then perhaps the top six teams can be ignored, and a trophy can be awarded to the team that finishes 7^th? The competition among those 14 teams is fierce, and the battle to avoid finishing in the bottom three is (sadly) by far the most exciting part of the Premier League. For a long time now there has been talk of European Leagues whereby all the top clubs in Europe ignore their domestic competitions and take part in Europe alone. I’m surprised that it hasn’t yet happened. If we removed the top six teams from the Premier League the competition for the title among the remainder would be a far more open affair. Would we miss playing them? I for one would not. I suspect that the same would be true of all the other top European leagues.

So, getting back to this season, with just 12 games to go Burnley lead the chase for the “seventh place title” on 36 points, just one ahead of Leicester, who in turn are then four clear of Bournemouth and Everton. Today’s opponents Watford are just one point further back on 30, before the cluster of 9 clubs that make up the bottom portion of the table. Burnley and Leicester are as good as safe from relegation, whilst the three clubs below them are almost there, but not quite. Of the nine clubs that are seriously in the mix at the moment, we are at the top (12^th) on 27 points, but only three points ahead of 19^th placed Huddersfield. Only West Brom with 20 points are beginning to be cast adrift.

The closeness of the fight to avoid the drop makes for an interesting finale to the season, and every match from here to the end assumes massive importance. A win for us today will take us up level on points with Watford and edging closer to safety, whereas three points for the visitors would be a huge step towards ensuring Premier League football at Vicarage Road next season.

Recent form is often a good indicator of what is likely to happen, but this can be distorted by other factors such as the strength and form of opposition, and whether games have been played at home or away. Nonetheless it is worth taking a look at the bottom 12 with a dozen games to go and look at how many points they have picked up in recent matches. I’ve chosen the last 5 fixtures for each team, which in itself may or may not be a reliable indicator of the term “recent”.

The bottom 12 teams in the Premier League after 26 games	Points after 26 games	Current Goal Difference	Points in last 5 games
9. Bournemouth	31	-7	11
10. Everton	31	-16	4
11. Watford	30	-8	5
12. West Ham	27	-14	6
13. Brighton	27	-14	5
14. Crystal Palace	27	-15	8
15. Southampton	26	-10	6
16. Newcastle	25	-12	6
17. Swansea	24	-18	8
18. Stoke City	24	-26	4
19. Huddersfield	24	-27	0
20. West Brom	20	-16	4

Based on the recent form table alone then the current bottom three would be the ones playing in the Championship next season. As they include two teams that I dislike the most (West Brom and Stoke) then I wouldn’t be unhappy with that outcome. Our final twelve games comprise 7 at home and 5 away. Five of the 12 games are against sides in the bottom 12 (above), with four of them at home (Watford, Southampton, Stoke, Everton) and one away (Swansea). These games are crucial to our survival and are true six-pointers. It is important to win most of those games, and equally important to avoid defeat if we don’t pick up three points from each of them. Apart from the Swansea game, the other four away matches are against sides in the top eight (Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Leicester) so we are unlikely to collect many points from them. A home game against the champions elect (City) won’t be a walk in the park either, nor will two other home fixtures against top eight sides (Manchester United and Burnley).

The importance of today’s game cannot be over-estimated. The gap between ourselves and Watford could be wiped out if we win, or extend to six points if we lose. Here are a ten factors to bear in mind in respect of this match, some of which are very worrying given West Ham’s predilection to allow other teams to end sequences of poor results:

1. If we avoid defeat that will extend our unbeaten run in league and cup at home to five matches – that would be a record for the London Stadium!
2. As a manager, David Moyes has never lost a home game against Watford.
3. This will be our 14^th game this season against a team who are currently above us in the table. The only game that we have won so far was at home to Chelsea. Nine of our final twelve games will be against teams currently in the 11 places above us in the table!
4. Watford have only won one of their last ten away games.
5. Watford have never beaten us twice in the league in a single season ever.
6. Watford won their last game convincingly beating Chelsea 4-1. They haven’t won two league games in a row for more than three months.
7. Michail Antonio has scored 6 goals in his last 7 games against Watford.
8. Michail Antonio scored both of our goals when we lost 4-2 at home to Watford last season (September 2016). He hasn’t scored a goal at the London Stadium since!
9. We have played a home league game against Watford before on February 10^th (11 years ago). We lost 1-0.
10. West Ham are 11/8 favourites to win the game, Watford are 15/8, with the draw at 23/10.

A Giant Leap Backwards

This was as terrible a West Ham performance as those we had to endure in the early part of the season.  Although some allowance can be made for the perennial long injury list it was worrying that the resolve, spirit and determination that had developed since the appointment of David Moyes was nowhere to be seen yesterday.  West Ham were disjointed, lacked cohesion and once again the defensive/ central midfield offered little or nothing; allowing Brighton through at will and providing no springboard to launch ou own attacks.  If the best we have in that area of the field for the remainder of the season is a mix of Noble, Zabaleta and Kouyate then I would be very worried.  The inability to fill this long standing and well known gap in the squad, particularly following the injury to Pedro Obiang, could be a disaster that is paid for with the ultimate Premier League price.

Uninspiring Selection

I was very surprised to hear an unchanged team announced for the start of the game.  It may have been a spirited performance and comeback against Palace but there now appeared more options available to supplement what had been regarded as a scratch side.  Perhaps there was an element of caution in not wanting to bring players back too quickly but it backfired badly.  Brighton played OK but as usual West Ham were the architects of their own downfall.  The first goal was a great example with the ball given away cheaply in attack, Aaron Cresswell more interested presumably on revenge, for an earlier hand in the face, committed an unnecessary and reckless challenge, the midfield had gone missing and the back three were all over the place in allowing Murray all the room in the world to score.  Cresswell did, at least, look a threat going forward and either side of a fine goal by Javier Herandez, set up presentable chances for Sam Byram (twice) and Joao Mario.  In fact, with the scores level at half time, and with Brighton’s early energy levels dropping,  I was still quietly confident that the Hammers would be able to take something from the game.

Second Half Surrender

Any half time confidence was quickly dissolved by an insipid second half performance in which the Hammers managed to go through the whole forty-five minutes without bothering the Brighton keeper once.  No changes were made at half time in an attempt to seize the initiative and as the game developed it was no surprise when Brighton regained the advantage.  Despite it being a stunning strike by Izquierdo, he was again given far too much time and space to work out his necessary angles and trajectories.  West Ham had managed to scrape back into the game in the first half with a goal out of the blue but this time there was no way back.  Gross, the best player on the field, capped an influential display with a third after a poor James Collins clearance.  By then the Hammers were in complete disarray and it could well have been a more emphatic defeat.  Michail Antonio was eventually thrown on (but did little of note) and Jordan Hugill was given no time at all to make an impact.

Collective Liability

No doubt that the goal by Hernandez was an excellent piece of opportunist finishing.  It was typical Little Pea but other than that he contributed little to the overall play.  The dilemma is how to incorporate such a player while attempting to build a modern team ethos in which everyone works for each other.  How many goals would he need to score before his limitations in a tight team formation became acceptable?  I don’t believe he is really suited to the style of football that most Premier League teams now play.  Not that Hernandez was stand-out poor in comparison with the rest of the team.  If I was giving ratings the only players worth more than a 4 would have been Mario and Adrian.  Having been pleasantly surprised by the improvement in Mark Noble’s performance and leadership in recent weeks he was back to his frustratingly slow sideways and backwards worst yesterday.

Gloomy Outlook

West Ham are now in the middle of the run of games that were meant to guarantee their safety before the fixtures became stickier against the bigger clubs from April onwards.  A return of two points from games against Bournemouth, Palace and Brighton is way below what I expected.  West Ham sit just three points above the relegation places and although maintaining an average of a point per game may be enough there are still some tough games to come.  There needs to be a huge improvement over the next few weeks coinciding, hopefully, with the return of Arnautovic and Lanzini.  Unfortunately, we will not see Obiang again this season and with that weakness in central midfield I can’t, at times, help but fear the worst.

Leaves on the line, icy roads and a disappointing January transfer window.  They happen every year and yet we are all still caught by surprise.

As we entered the window there was almost universal agreement that West Ham needed more bodies in the squad; and that was even before serious injuries to key players and a needless suspension added to the toll.  The previous window had closed with a desperate attempt to sign a decent defensive midfielder, the need for which remains glaringly obvious.  Apparently, it did not seem to occur to anyone to line up feasible replacements in advance of the shops re-opening as the club once again stumbled to heroic failure on the last day of the sales.  It is looking like a repeat of the three year search for a right back that only ended with the signing of Pablo Zabaleta – who ironically may now be asked to cover in a defensive midfield role.

Without a shadow of a doubt the current owners are the worst West Ham have had ……..since the last ones and the ones before that.  Rinse and repeat until the club is eventually purchased by a small middle-eastern Emirate or overseas oligarch.  Unfortunately, the club has a history of being accident prone: from Mannygate, Tevezgate, Icelandicsgate through to the hot off the press Henrygate (why would anyone with half a brain put those types of thoughts down in a permanent electronic record?).  With Tony Henry now dismissed I await the announcement of Big Ron Atkinson as the next director of Players We Won’t Eventually Recruit.

With all the off-field shenanigans taking place it is sometimes difficult to remember that there is also a football season going on.  Today West Ham travel to the south coast to face Brighton at the Amex Stadium.  It was only a few months ago that after promising starts to the season you would read many an article praising the exploits of the newly promoted clubs and predicting a season in which, for once, none of the three would be relegated.  Now they each find themselves just a point away from the drop zone and dropping fast.  It would be no surprise if at least one experiences a quick return to the Championship, although with such a congested table picking which one is anyone’s guess.  Of course, our own Hammers are still well within the mix and so there is all to play for in yet another crucial race to the bottom clash this afternoon.

Head to Head

The Hammers have a 100% record at the Amex Stadium having previously won on their only previous visit in October 2011.   The win that day was courtesy of a Kevin Nolan goal in a team where only Mark Noble and Winston Reid still survive in West Ham colours.  Apart from that success West Ham have won on just one more occasion (1978) while losing four times in their nine visits to sunny Sussex.

Brighton memorably romped to a comfortable 3-0 victory at the London Stadium in October in one of the Hammers most incompetent displays of the season.  In the preview to that match I mocked Brighton’s (alleged) tax-avoiding striker Glenn Murray and his double that day means that I won’t be making the same mistake this time around.

Team News

There is better news on the West Ham injury front with Reid, Michail Antonio and Jose Fonte all reported to be available for selection along with the newly recruited Jordan Hugill.

The selection questions for David Moyes will be: whether Zabaleta plays again in midfield with Sam Byram filling in at right wing back; which is the best threesome out of Reid, Fonte, Angelo Ogbonna, Declan Rice and James Collins to bring stability at the back; if Antonio is brought into an attacking midfield role will Kouyate make way (with the risk of ensuing mayhem!) or would that mean Zabaleta returning to wing back with a reliance on the previously suspect Noble/ Kouyate combination in the centre; does he start with Javier Hernandez, Hugill or Antonio as the lone striker?

I will be interested to see Hugill, a player who I admit to never having heard of before Wednesday.  He deserves to be given every chance to show what he can do before any premature conclusions are reached.  He is said to have an admirable never-say-die attitude and great strength although a supposed lack of pace could be a red flag at the top level. A debut goal would be welcome.

Brighton are without Locadia, Brown, Sidwell and Skalak but may give an outing to loan signing Ulloa, a player who often seems to have a productive afternoon against the Hammers.

Man In The Middle

Match-day referee is Roger East from Wiltshire.  East was previously in charge of the 1-0 home win against Swansea in September.  In nineteen games he has awarded sixty-four yellow cards and two reds.

Predictions

Both Lawro and Merson are convinced that this game is a 2-1 home win which would put the Seagulls level pegging with West Ham on twenty-seven points from twenty six points.  With Brighton without a league win in 2018 and with only one win in fourteen, I am looking for the Hammers to prolong their misery for a little while longer.  It will be a tough game and I expect a lot of early pressure from the home team.  If the all-new resolute Hammers can weather that early seaside storm I will back them to win by the odd goal.  Three points from the Amex – that’ll do nicely!

When I was a football-mad young boy growing up in the 1960’s, although you had your favourite team that you supported, many would have a second team that they followed. The comics and magazines aimed at young boys, such as the Tiger, Roy of the Rovers, Charles Buchan’s Football Monthly, Goal, Soccer Star etc. positively encouraged appreciation of players and teams beyond your own. Especially following the 1966 World Cup, when West Ham players were instrumental (to say the least) in England lifting the trophy for the one and only time, many acknowledged us as their favourite second team. I can personally relate to this as when I advertised for pen friends (do youngsters still do this activity these days?) in Soccer Star magazine I was swamped with responses from supporters from all over the country who related to us as their second team to follow.

In the modern social media age apparently liking a team beyond your own is considered a no-no. You have to love the team you follow and hate or despise all others, otherwise you are not a “true supporter”. I’m sorry but I can’t relate to those emotions. I can’t bring myself to actually “hate” any team. I can’t say I particularly care for many of them, and in the Premier League both Stoke and West Brom easily top my list of teams I really don’t like. And though I don’t particularly care for Tottenham either, I have a grudging admiration for some of the football that they play.

Of all the other teams in the Premier League, then if I had to pick a second team, or a team I like to see beat all the others (other than West Ham of course) then it would be Arsenal. I also have a soft spot for Newcastle, Bournemouth and Brighton. These are all for varying reasons that extend back to my youth, and are not particularly strong feelings, other than if I am watching a game on Sky or BT, I will usually want one side to beat the other. I find it hard to watch a game as a strict neutral and have no interest in the outcome. Unlike so many who seem to relish teams from the bottom half beating the big boys, I cannot join that group either. As West Ham are frequently one of the sides involved in the relegation fight these days, then I will usually want one of our “lower in the league” competitors to lose to a top team, purely for the preservation of our Premier League place.

This weekend we visit the South Coast to visit a team that I have a bit of a soft spot for. Nevertheless, although I hope they escape the drop, I also want us to give them a battering equivalent of the one that they gave us at the London Stadium (3-0) towards the end of October. That was just over three months ago, and their first away victory enabled them to move into the top half of the table, while we sat immediately above the three teams in the drop zone at the time, namely Leicester, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace. A lot can change in three months of course, and to illustrate this both Leicester and Bournemouth are now in the top half of the table (8^th and 10^th), with Palace now 13^th, just one place below ourselves. Brighton, on the other hand are now 15^th and are only one point better off than Southampton and Swansea who occupy two of the three relegation places, just above West Brom at the bottom. Ironically the three teams at the bottom now were all between 11^th and 14^th in the league at the end of October.

The battle to avoid the drop is now perhaps the most interesting part of the Premier League. At the start of the season there could have only been a maximum of six possible contenders to win it, and the elite six are as expected well clear of the rest. Manchester City already have the title sewn up so it remains to be seen which three of the chasing five will get into the coveted “top four” for the Champions League slots, and the money that it brings.

You would think that Burnley, Leicester, and possibly Everton probably have enough points in the bag already to avoid relegation, so the remaining eleven teams ranging from Bournemouth on 28 points (but only 5 clear of 18^th / 19^th) down to West Brom on 20 at the bottom are the ones who will provide the most interest in the final third of the season.

If Brighton were to repeat their 3-0 victory over us from earlier this season then they would leapfrog us, whereas if we beat them they could easily find themselves in the bottom three. Whilst all of our remaining games are important, those against the other teams in the bottom eleven are the true six-pointers, and many will set out not to lose, just as ourselves and Palace appeared to settle for a point apiece with a quarter of the game still to go on Tuesday night.

The importance of this game (as I guess all games) cannot be over-emphasised. If we can win then it would take a lot of the pressure off whilst we await the return to fitness of some of our key players. With the extent of our injury list many were surprised that we didn’t bring in more new faces in the transfer window that closed this week. In fact the word surprised is a bit of an understatement if you read any of the damning comments aimed at our board via social media sites.

One thing that disappointed me about the knee-jerk reactions was the negativity aimed at our new recruit, Jordan Hugill. Whilst I would have been more excited by the recruitment of Cairney (from Fulham) or especially Madison (from Norwich) (both midfielders) I am not averse to the club taking on players from a lower level. Many will forget that Billy Bonds, Julian Dicks, Dean Ashton, Alan Devonshire, Aaron Cresswell, and Michail Antonio were all bought from teams at a level below ourselves. I don’t know if Hugill will cut it at the top level, but from what I’ve seen on Championship highlight programmes in the last couple of seasons he is certainly worth a try. He seems to me to be a fully committed, all action, old fashioned centre forward, and I believe that he may surprise a few people. To anyone who hasn’t seen him play I would describe his playing style as “raw Dean Ashton”. It may not work, but then again we’ve bought enough players with much bigger reputations where it didn’t happen.

Recent form is never a particularly good indicator when assessing how West Ham will perform in a game of football. Brighton’s recent home form is poor with just one win in their last nine games at the AMEX. In their last 13 Premier League games Brighton have failed to score in nine of them, and have only scored 5 goals in the other four. Their entry in the “goals for” column is a lower number than any other team for the season as a whole, and they have only scored more than once in just four of their 25 games. So expect a hat full of goals from the home side then! On the other hand we have only lost one of our last ten Premier League games, so it is about time we had another defeat! I expect to see a tight game probably ending in a draw, perhaps 1-1, or even goalless. But I am hoping that we can extend our excellent recent away form in the league, and perhaps sneak a win.

What I am particularly looking forward to though, is watching Mario, Lanzini, and Arnie all playing in the same team. I don’t know how far in the future this will be, but I am expecting great things creatively when it happens. Let us hope that it is sooner rather than later.