The history of West Ham’s visits to Stamford Bridge indicates a likely home win. But does Chelsea’s poor recent form suggest otherwise?

History of Chelsea v West Ham fixtures and form in 2024-25 gives West Ham little chance of beating Chelsea on Monday evening. Only one player who could possibly be in our line-up for this game has ever scored a goal for us at Stamford Bridge and that is Aaron Cresswell. In our last two Premier League games v Chelsea they have scored eight goals against us without reply.

The first few minutes of the game could be important (as we found at Villa recently). Apart from Brentford, Chelsea have scored more goals than any other team in the opening ten minutes of Premier League games this season whereas we have conceded more goals in that time than any other team. Let’s hope we can withstand the opening period!

There are some hopeful factors though. Despite being sixth in the table, Chelsea have the poorest form in their last six games of all the top 14 Premier League teams. That’s where we are in our customary position this season of 14^th. They have only collected five points in those whereas we have seven. The Premier League form table for the last six games has Chelsea in 15^th.

In those six matches which go back to Boxing Day Chelsea have scored first in five of them but only won one of those five games. Their record of dropping more points from winning positions than anyone else in the period is only surpassed by Tottenham who have only picked up one point in the six-game form table up until the end of January.

I was looking through some statistics on the BBC website and saw that West Ham have won just one of their last 18 Premier League away games against Chelsea, drawing 4 of them and losing 13. That alone would suggest that winning there on Monday evening will not be likely if history is repeated. The one win in the period was in November 2019, a game remembered because of our goalkeeper that day, David Martin (son of Alvin) who kept a clean sheet and Aaron Cresswell scored for us as we won the game 1-0.

My first recollection in any detail of West Ham / Chelsea games goes back to the World Cup winning year of 1966. Towards the end of the 1965-66 season we played at Stamford Bridge and they thrashed us 6-2. Names from the past – George Graham (2), Ron Harris, Terry Venables and Bobby Tambling (2) scored against us that day. Our goals were from Peter Bennett and an own goal.

In the very first game at Upton Park after the World Cup final we met them at Upton Park. Our World Cup winning trio of Moore, Hurst and Peters received a tremendous reception when they came onto the pitch alone before the teams came out, but Chelsea spoilt the day with a 2-1 win. Johnny Byrne scored our goal that day.

Later that season in the reverse fixture at Stamford Bridge the week before Christmas there were ten goals in the game as it ended 5-5. Not many games end with that scoreline. Byrne, Brabrook, Peters, Sissons (2) were our scorers that day.

I was looking at the cost of programmes in those days. Both West Ham and Chelsea programmes at the time cost 6d (2.5p equivalent). The cost of the Matchday programme this season is now £4. That’s inflation for you.

Since that 5-5 draw we have played them 45 times in league games at Stamford Bridge, mostly top-flight games, although a couple of times in Division Two. We have won 10 of them, the last one being the David Martin game in 2019.

One win in 1967 was followed by two in the seventies, two in the eighties, three in the nineties, a surprising win in the relegation season of 2002-03, and then in 2019. The biggest win came in the great season of 1985-86 when we won 4-0 (McAvennie, Cottee 2, Devonshire), on our way to finishing third.

Despite their recent poor form and our encouraging display at Villa Chelsea are big odds-on favourites with the bookmakers to win the game at 1/3. We are 4/1 or greater to win and the draw is around 7/1 if you fancy a flutter.

Five years ago at the beginning of February we were just beginning to hear about Covid although we were unaware of the effect it would have on our lives for a year or two. The effect on football was that a season that began in August 2019 didn’t end until the end of July 2020. The season was halted for three months in March and of course social distancing entered the language with games played behind closed doors.

Looking back at those times we didn’t have VAR, which was to start at the beginning of the following season. Surprisingly (you may think?) the makeup of the Premier League was similar in terms of the teams with sixteen of the current twenty sides involved. The four who were in the top flight then who aren’t now are Sheffield United, Burnley, Watford and Norwich. Sheffield United and Burnley both finished in the top half of the table whereas Watford and Norwich were both relegated (along with Bournemouth). Liverpool were runaway champions (as they well might be this time?). We finished sixteenth just above Aston Villa who narrowly escaped relegation by one point.

The four teams here now who weren’t then are Brentford, Fulham and Nottingham Forest who in that Championship season finished third, fourth and seventh. The other team is Ipswich who were a mid-table League One side that year. The teams who came up from the Championship were Leeds and West Brom (who are now back there) and Fulham who beat Brentford in the Play-Off final.

I wonder if you had looked forward then to the current day and been able to predict the Premier League table at the beginning of February 2025. Would you have predicted Forest in third place having just put seven past Brighton? Bournemouth seventh, Fulham, Brighton, Brentford ninth, tenth and eleventh? Manchester United, Tottenham and West Ham all in the bottom half?

I wonder what team and formation will we see against Chelsea? There seems to have been a new manager bounce in that the players seem to be responding to Graham Potter more than appeared to be the case with the departed Lopetegui. Geoff raised the issue of new manager bounce in a recent article. There has certainly been that effect at Everton too.

Hopefully Jarrod Bowen will be back for this game and it won’t be too long until we see Summerville too. At the time of writing we still haven’t signed a centre forward, a box to box midfielder or central defender that are key positions that most need strengthening although the signing of Ferguson from Brighton is looking close? The window slams shut at 11pm – let us hope that there is some good news on this front.