Lopetegui’s Road to Nowhere and an Out of Capital Punishment Beating

As in all long running soap operas, each game in West Ham’s season ends with a cliffhanger to keep us talking until the next unstalment. Has the corner been turned? Will the manager be sacked? Is there an oubreak of turmoil and unrest in the Hammer’s camp?

Two weekends ago, a welcome win and an encouraging second-half performance of up-tempo football against Manchester United left us wondering whether this was finally the point where Lopetegui-ball shook off its slumber and gained momentum. On Saturday’s evidence it was no ore than a lucky break?

It had been a very different story for the Red Devils who shaken by the ignominy of defeat by West Ham ended their patient support of Erik ten Hag. The twist being that the next Old Trafford boss will be the same Ruben Amorim, who had been interviewed in the summer from the London Stadium job but – according to reports – was considered too risky an appointment at this stage of his career. The board opting to go for a safe pair of hands in the guise of former goalkeeper and compensation-free, Julen Lopetegui.

It was the battle of the goalkeeping managers when the Hammers headed to Nottingham for their first Premier League fixture of the season outside of the M25. The high-flying hosts now coached by another former Wolves manager, Nuno Espirito Santo.  

People say that Lopetegui is a steady rather than innovative manager and yet his ability to find new and ingenious ways of deploying players out of position really takes some beating. His response to the Manchester United success was not to build on the success but to introduce a surprise overhaul of formation whereby Max Kilman, Jean-Clair Todibo and Dinos Mavropanos formed a three-man central defence. The full backs would become wing backs for the day, there would be a double pivot of Edson Alvarez and Guido Rodriguez and Jarod Bowen would operate as the central striker, in preference to either Michail Antonio or Danny Ings.

While the coach had bowed to calls for Crysencio Summerville to be given a start following his game changing exploits a week earlier, he was conspicuously consigned to an inside-left berth where he could do less damage. For balance, Lucas Paqueta was also given the opportunity to demonstrate he could be equally s ineffective at inside-right as anywhere else on the pitch. The Brazilian is clearly not in the right frame of mind for football.

 West Ham saw a lot of the ball in the opening period, but it was possession for the sake of it, without any hint of penetration inside the box. Forest were the more incisive side by some distance. Nuno’s style is not far removed from that of the old Scottish manager, favouring the low block and quick transition. But with pace to spare in both midfield and attack, it was too hot for the Hammers to handle – even while the game remained 11 a-side.

The opening goal came as Forest again exploited the acres of space that West Ham were gifting along the flanks. Not for the first time, Mavropanos was more concerned with adopting the hands-behind-the-back Riverdance pose than closing the space between him and his opponent. Moreno allowed all the time in the world to calmly pick out Wood’s head as several Hammer’s defenders looked on.

Despite fashioning a first meaningful shot at goal just before the break, the game was effectively done and dusted when Alvarez picked up two yellow cards in the space of eight minutes. Taking one for the team has become an acepted part and parcel of the modern game but the more astute sides know how to spread the load and are careful not to use up lives when it isn’t absolutely necessary. Both of Alvarez’s card were avoidable as the threat wasn’t immediate at either time. In defence of the Mexican, he often looks to be the only player interested in hunting down the ball in midfield or chasing lost causes in defence. He has always liked a card though, and it is difficult to lump this behaviour with any wider lack of discipline that may be creeping into the club.

In the second half it was simply a matter of time before the hosts scored again, and a lottery as to how many goals they would rack up before the final whistle. There was little sign that the visitors had any hunger or passion to make a fight out of adversity. Ultimately, Forest contented themselves with extending a three-year home sequence that has seen them score 1, 2 and then 3 goals against West Ham without reply. It was a win that saw them climb into third spot in the table as the season passed its quarter way point.

A common reason put forward for Lopetegui’s poor start to his West Ham career is that “he doesn’t know his best team yet.” That has always felt a lame argument to me as lineups are never static. Players lose and find form, injuries and suspensions must be managed, and approaches to games are adjusted according to opposition. What is a concern though is that after 12 league and cup games we are no nearer understanding what the coach is trying to achieve. What evidence exists of   progress towards a style, formation and tactics that can be effective in the Premier League, while suiting the players available to him? Lopetegui has been stumbling from match to match apparently learning little and reacting to events with apparent random acts of management.

Everyone knew that the Hammers faced a major squad rebuilding in the summer. Looking at the individuals recruited in isolation, a case can be made for the sense of each signing. But as an overall strategy, the conclusion has to be that the club got the priorities very wrong – both from a positional sense and the age profile of the squad.

This is perfectly illustrated with a midfield that can neither cover the ground defensively nor support rapid transition in possession. No matter who is selected out of Alvarez, Rodriguez, Paqueta, and Tomas Soucek the midfield is short of legs without anyone capable of breaking forward with the ball at speed. A data driven analysis isn’t required to tell us this. We can all see it with our own eyes. Games are often won and lost through control of the midfield and our solution is akin to entering a Morris Traveler in a Formula 1 race.

The question now is how much time Lopetegui will be allowed to demonstrate he has a plan, and knows what he is attempting to do. I doubt even the extravagantly patient board members will be convinced by what they have seen to date. Or impressed by the stories of unease that arisen within the squad. If a slow and gradual improvement could be detected, we might be inclined to grin and bear it in the near term. But that has not been happening. It would be out of character but does it make cutting the losses – even at this early stage – a sensible course of action.  

The dilemma, of course, is that if Lopetegui was sacked who would replace him. Assuming David Sullivan would again be the primary decision maker we know how predictable and unimaginative he will be. Dazzled by coaches who have managed at big clubs, regardless of how successful that ha turned out. And narrowing the field to those currently unemployed where no compensation would be required. Any chance of boardroom coup? COYI!