West Ham Monday Briefing: Value Added Max, Forward Thinking and Right Back Where We Started

Julen, Julen, Julen, Julen, please don’t sign him just because you can

With six weeks to go to the big kick-off, West Ham have finally signed a player likely to feature as a starter in the curtain raiser against Aston Villa on August 17. The announcement of Max Kilman’s arrival confirming that Jolen Lopetegui had secured his primary defensive target.

A change of leadership is often the catalyst for optimism and last week’s press conference by Lopetegui and Tim Steidten swept a breath of fresh air through the corridors and stairwells of the London Stadium. Listening to the pair speak produced a positive and energetic vibe that must surely permeate throughout the club over the coming months. If only West Ham had the technology which allowed us to hear the questions from the journalists as well as the answers.

Lopetegui’s statement that he intended to approach every game in the belief that his team can winn was especially encouraging. Supporters are well aware that it will not always come off but the approach is music to our ears after many seasons of insecurity and respecting the point. There is a real feeling that the playing side of the club id finally in good hands and with a sound structure. I am confident that having taken on board the wisdom of the pundits, that my wishes are now fully compliant with appropriate health and safety guidelines.

Lopetegui has also spoken about the club’s recruitment philosophy of finding players and improving them with coaching. It makes eminent sense and along with developing players from the youth system is the most sensible strategy for a club like ours in the contemporary world of FFP and PSR. The approach is not necessarily reflected in the names being thrown around in the transfer gossip columns (the latest count has grown to 111 names) which continue to major on big name, high price tag targets. The difficulty is that reinforcements are badly needed and time is slipping away. The pace of signings has to increase as well as remaing shrewd. Let’s not get sidetracked by free agents just because they are available.

Congratulations, You Have Just Met the DCF

With all the new financial rules and regulations associated with football the saloon bar supporter needs to be as expert about amortisation as they do about tactics: “I do like the way Guardiola deploys inverted full backs but not so keen on his prefernce for real option pricing in valuing intangible assets.”  It’s a whole new ball game of smoke and mirrors.

There were a range of opinions on whether the Kilman fee was good value or not. He is clearly a fine player and was a known target for the coach – which must be a bonus. As a supporter, the size of the fee is only really relevant in terms of how much remains to spend to fill the many remaining gaps in the squad. The estimated net spend for this window to date now stands at £36 million. So, what is left in the war chest for signing another five or six players, assuming additional funds will also be available from the sale of Nayef Aguerd and Kurt Zouma? Anywhere between £10 m and £100 m perhaps.

A few eyebrows were also raised about the seven year contract awarded to Kilman. This was not an attempt at the scam used by Chelsea to write off transfer fees players over a lengthy time period – that practice was banned a while back. Player value can only be written down over the length of a contract up to a maximum of five years. More probable is that it is a way around any wage structure in place at West Ham. If we assume Kilman will be paid close to £60k per week – he was allegedly on £50k at Wolves – the deal will cost the club (from an accounting perspective) £11 m for 5 years plus £3 m for an additional two years after that – £61 million in total. There is a faint whiff of string up problems in the future.

Right Back to Basics

If the likelihood of a transfer taking place is proportional to the number of times it is repeated, then the next signing will be Kyle Walker-Peters from Southampton. Much of the rationale is that Flynn Downes may be going in the other direction in what is commonly touted as a swap deal.

Last week the full back pursuit was being presented as a choice between Walker-Peters and Aaron Wan-Bissaka. It seemed odd that if a set of defined performance criteria were being analysed by a data expert that it would come up with those two options – unless the criteria were: must have a double-barrelled name and be able to also play on the left in an emergency. Wan-Bissaka is one of the stronger defensive full backs in the league but does not offer much going forward. While Walker-Peters is mediocre as defender but very competent when in possession. I suppose it depends what system is being played and what the main attributes of the full back need to be. Personally, I worry about how effective small full backs like Walker-Peters can be in the modern game where the trend (i.e. what Pep is doing) is towards a backline of six footers. Hoping for better options!  

What do we want? A striker! When do we want one? Now!

The most eagerly awaited news of the summer will be the signing of a new striker. In all probability, two are badly needed. One with a reliable and proven track record, the ther with potential as one for the future. The striker conundrum has particular significance at West Ham due to the many past failures who have been unable to make their mark. It has been our lot for most of the Premier League era.

At least 20 strikers have now been linked with a move to the Hammers since the transfer gossip window sprang open at the start of June. Some rumours are lazy journalism (Romelu Lukaku), some hang around for a while before disappearing (Jonathan David) and others you just pray are someone’s idea of a joke (Tammy Abraham, Kelechi Iheanacho). The rumour of the week is Alexander Sorloth whose purple patch at Villareal last season has put gloss on an otherwise undistinguished career – including a spell at Crystal Palace.

As I see it, acceptable front-runners would be Ivan Toney, Youssef En-Nesyri, and possibly Jhon Duran. En-Nesyri obviously has previous with Lopetegui but is in danger of becoming one of those names that is perennially linked but never comes to pass. Toney may be the best. His betting indiscretions – and the risk of it being repeated – may be preventing bigger clubs taking a gamble, so perhaps there is an opportunity to take advantage as Redknapp did with Di Canio all those years ago.

Careful What You Wish For 2: The Takeover

West Ham takeover fever is back in the news this week with self-styled football consultant, Keith Wyness claiming that exploratory talks are underway to put the club up for sale. Many will say “not before time” but experience elsewhere suggests this has far greater potential to go horribly wrong than a change of manager. The current owners are clearly not universally loved but accusations of their greed and penny-pinching can be greatly exaggerated. They have been prepared to spend money, unfortunately they have not done so wisely.

For all their shortcomings the owners may be preferable to the US investment funds who have taken an interest in European football in recent years but whose mode of operation is to load their acquisitions with debt. Tread very carefully!   

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All views expressed in this article are not necessarily the opinions of any real person, living or dead – unless they turn out to be correct.