Can West Ham beat Arsenal for the third time this season?

It has only been a little over three months since we faced Arsenal for the first time this season in the EFL Cup. On the evening of 1st December Arsenal were below par, they left some key players including our old captain on the bench and VAR was on our side by not being there. If it had been in operation the opening goal might have been ruled out for Soucek holding Ramsdale’s shirt. The outcome of the game might have been different.

Arsenal’s domination of possession (72%) meant nothing when Kudus superbly controlled Aguerd’s 50 yard pass and fired home, and then Bowen made it three. Odegaard pulled one back with the final kick in the game but this meant nothing and we were through to the next round.

A little under two months later we travelled to North London to face them in a Premier League game. Once again we won the game. Arsenal’s undoing was their inability to convert possession (up to 74% this time) and domination (30 shots to 6) into goals. Some controversy over the first goal but VAR was unable to confirm whether or not the ball had gone out before Bowen hooked it back for Soucek to score. Mavropanos added a second with an excellent header early in the second half. The score line could have been even worse for the Gunners when Rice gave away a last minute penalty, but Benrahma’s effort was comfortably saved by Raya. That was the halfway point in the season and we were on 33 points, our highest ever total at this stage of a Premier League campaign. 

Six weeks later and we are meeting them for the third time. Two wins, a 5-1 aggregate, how can we go wrong? Well, since that win at the Emirates we haven’t won a game in six attempts, as poor a start to a calendar year as we have made in more than 25 years. We have not been at full strength and unfortunately without our first choice eleven we struggle.

The 3-0 defeat to Manchester United last Sunday was perhaps a slightly improved performance when compared to recent games. We had almost 50 percent possession and 22 shots on goal, but as proved in the Arsenal games, possession and shots counts for nothing in the end, only goals count. Our xg was better than theirs too so do we get consolation points for that? Of course not. The game is full of statistics but until they start tinkering with the points system (and let’s hope they don’t!) it will remain as goals that count and nothing else.

Talking of tinkering have you read this week about the forthcoming trials for blue cards to be introduced alongside the yellow and red ones that currently exist? As I understand it for certain misdemeanours (cynical fouls or dissent) players will be shown a blue card and sent to a sin bin for 10 minutes. I have also read many positive comments by some who want this to happen. Is it me – am I the only person who think the idea is bonkers and will ruin the game? I may be wrong but I can just imagine teams with a player sitting out for 10 minutes attempting to waste time, taking as long as they can get away with to take goal kicks and throw ins, and perhaps trying to keep the ball near the corner flag? Just because they do it in rugby doesn’t mean it would be right for football. But based on what I have read I am in the minority with my view. Or am I?

I’ve also read that the Premier League don’t intend to use semi automated offside technology next season as they don’t think it is accurate enough. Wasn’t it used in the World Cup in Qatar? Don’t they use it in the Champions League? But not good enough for the Premier League eh? They prefer their people in Stockley Park taking an age to draw lines. Mmm.

If you haven’t yet read Geoff’s article published on Friday then take a look now. The Moyes love him or hate him debate continues among our fans. Will he get a new contract? If Paqueta returns soon and we keep a fit first eleven then we might just do enough in the remainder of the season for the board to give him one. I think that would be a mistake. Results wise he has done a good job. Entertainment not so. I don’t believe that the two are mutually exclusive. The two can co-exist. I believe that football managers have a limited shelf life with individual clubs. With few exceptions I believe that both the clubs and the managers themselves benefit from moving on elsewhere. It’s probably true of many jobs.

So can we beat Arsenal for the third time this season? It would put a dent in their chase for the title if we did. Bookmakers don’t give us much of a chance. You can get odds of around 5/1 if you fancy our chances; Arsenal are around 2/1 on. I’d love it if we did win but I just can’t see it based on our recent form since the turn of the year. Seven consecutive winless games certainly won’t help the manager in his contract negotiations! It’s almost twenty years since we did the league double over Arsenal. When did we last beat them three times in a season? In 1924-25 we actually played them six times. We won both league games by an odd goal, we knocked them out of the FA Cup at the third time of asking after two drawn games, and in the London FA Challenge Cup we beat them again. Four times in one season!