West Ham Monday Briefing: Wonder-Kidology, AI Addio, and a Norwegian Claret & Blue

You Can’t Win Anything with Wonderkids

West Ham got their first transfer of the summer over the line last week with the signing of 18-year-old Brazilian Luis Guilherme. By all accounts his capture is something of a coup for the Hammers with the player having attracted plenty of interest from across Europe.

It was interesting to get the insight of South American football ‘expert’ Tim Vickery on Guilherme. Vickery clearly saw him as a very special talent, although one for the future rather than the here and now. In the context of West Ham needing to rebuild in all areas of the pitch, it is both an exciting and controversial first signing for the new regime. There has to be a delicate balance between building for the future and remaining competitive in the present.

We can only wait to see how he is deployed in the current season. Under the Scottish manager he could be expected to accumulate around 27 added-time substitution minutes before Christmas. Hopefully, Lopetegui has other plans to bed him in.

Vickery’s comments that the Paqueta betting scandal had worked in West Ham’s favour were rather bizarre. Admittedly it might have prevented him leaving the club in the short term, but a lifetime ban would represent a massive financial hit. The way that football finances now work, a large incoming transfer fee is a necessary boost to keep the squad refreshed. Like it or not the West Ham operating model in the current envirobment has to be built on buying bargains and selling on at a profit after a season or two of service.

If the reports are to be believed, the Hammers interest in wonderkids has not been exhausted by the signing of Guilherme. Suggestions persist that they continue to track Wesley Gassova of Corinthians and Ibrahim Maza of Hertha Berlin. Not only that but they are also in the market for one-time wonderkid, Ryan Sessegnon. Still only 24, Sessegnon was sold to Tottenham as a 19-year-old before being struck down by Spursy Syndrome. Could a move to the London Stadium work as an experimental cure for this debilitating north London disorder?  Or do nine out of ten wonder kids end up the same way as Sessegnon?

The Summer Transfer Smorgasbord

No sooner had the virtual ink virtually dried on last week’s article lamenting why so few Scandinavians had represented West Ham, when the club were linked with a move for giant Celta Vigo striker Jorgen Strand Larsen. According to an imaginary tweet by Fabrizio Romana, the would-be Norwegian claret and blue was pining for the old Fjord United sports ground, now the home of the Hammer’s Rush Green training centre.

In a further show of my visionary powers I will now throw out the suggestion that it’s about time West Ham finally recruited an Asian player. It is a feat that has so far eluded the club despite the countless shirt sales that such deals are alleged to bring in.

Otherwise, it has been a strangely quiet week for adding new names to the target speculation list. Most of the stories appearing online having been recycled from previous reports – the transfer rumour equivalent of endless repeats on Dave.

The obsession on rumour sites has been the signing of wingers even though Lopetegui is believed to operate without them – at least in their traditional getting to the byline and pumping in crosses role. He prefers to use his full backs for that.

We have to believe that links to Raheem Sterling are simply someone’s idea of a joke and I will sleep far more soundly once Tammy Abraham finally signs for another club. Neither of those options would shout smart recruitment to me with their current clubs desperate to offload. The same goes for signing Arsenal fringe players such as Reiss Nelson or Eddie Nketiah – both would represent very poor value.

One name that did standout was Jhon Arias, partly because of the weird spelling of John but also for triggering memories of ex-West Ham winger Johnny Ayris. Anyone familiar with how Ayris’s career was effectively ended will hope Chelsea are not currently scouting a full-back called Rhon Hairyass.

Below are this weeks latest targets. The full list of 64 players can be found here.

AI Addio: We’re Gonna Win The Cup

I used to have a dystopian nightmare that bothersome spectators would eventually be banned from attending live football games. The atmosphere for the ‘more lucrative’ TV audience being simulated by a combination of AI and CGI technologies. I;m convinced this is now possible but , of course, there is a very good reason why this cannot happen – the increasingly important role of annual revenues in the way that football clubs must operate. The size of revenues determines how much a club are allowed to spend of player transfers and wages.

Club revenues are typically categorised into Broadcast, Matchday and Commercial earnings. Broadcast revenues map directly to performance on the pitch and particularly to final Premier League placing, plus any European income. If West Ham and Tottenham finished close in the standings, then their Broadcast revenues would be roughly the same. But look at the most recent data in the Deloitte Rich List, and you will notice that Tottenham are streets ahead of the Hammers in Matchday (€135m vs €47m) and Commercial (€261m vs €58m) income. Although West Ham will show a large increase in Commercial income for the following year this is only because of the sale of Declan Rice.

Quite why there are such huge discrepancies between the two clubs is difficult to work out. After all, the Hammers are run by self-proclaimed business experts. The dilemma is that if West Ham are to progressively invest in the squad, they need to either squeeze matchday spectators for more money or regularly sell players at a profit. Neither course of action will be popular with fans as has been seen with the protests over season ticket price rises and removal of concessions.

It leaves West Ham and others hoping to break into the elite levels of league with a Gordian knot of a problem.

***

Don’t forget the Premier League fixtures for the 2024/25 season are released tomorrow morning.